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Piracy Outstripping Legal Video Sales?

Posted by ScuttleMonkey on Wed Dec 27, 2006 03:29 PM
from the consumers-have-made-their-desires-clear dept.
b.burl writes to tell us a recently released report by the NDP Group supports the horror stories being fed to us by studio execs, but not quite in the way those execs would have you believe. The study shows a continued rise in video piracy compared to legal video sales. The largest target continues to be adult oriented content and TV shows, with only an estimated 5 percent being mainstream movie content. From the article: "[A]mong U.S. households with members who regularly use the Internet, 8 percent (six million households) downloaded at least one digital video file (10MB or larger) from a P2P service for free in the third quarter of 2006. Nearly 60 percent of video files downloaded from P2P sites were adult-film content, while 20 percent was TV show content and 5 percent was mainstream movie content."
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  • by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday December 27 2006, @03:32PM (#17380598)
    Why you think the net was born?

    Porn! Porn! Porn!
  • by Warbringer87 (969664) on Wednesday December 27 2006, @03:33PM (#17380610)
    #1 cause of computer literacy among 18-24 males.
    • #1 cause of computer literacy among 18-24 males.

      They download pr0n for the articles?

      Color me skeptical.
      • by s_p_oneil (795792) on Wednesday December 27 2006, @03:52PM (#17380816) Homepage
        He didn't say "literacy". He said "computer literacy". Here are all the things they can learn from it (often in this order):

        1) How to use a mouse.
        2) How to launch and use a web browser.
        3) What local files and folders are, and why it's a good idea to save your favorite videos locally in your own folder.
        4) How to hide things stored locally so your parent, boss, girlfriend, etc. can't find it.
        5) How to install and use P2P software (often followed by how to install anti-malware software).
        6) How to locate and install video and audio codecs.
        7) How to find and use anonymous proxies to circumvent those pesky web filtering devices.
        8) How to set up their own proxies, write scripts or programs, and/or hack the filtering device to circumvent it.

        Some kids end up becoming programmers, IT specialists, or even hackers just to be able to see a boob. ;-)
    • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

      ...not to mention 12-18 males. At 18, you can just buy the damn stuff.
    • Re: (Score:3, Funny)

      by Anonymous Coward
      That most downloads is porno is well known. The word "porno" is now also beeing used as an adjective meaning "really great". (norwegian)

      A real-estate agent advertises a "porno 4-room apartment for sale" here: http://e24.no/oppogfrem/article1535337.ece [e24.no]
  • A shame... (Score:4, Interesting)

    by KingSkippus (799657) * on Wednesday December 27 2006, @03:34PM (#17380616) Homepage Journal
    20 percent [of video files downloaded from P2P sites] was TV show content

    And this is a crying shame.

    I download television show content myself. What I can get on iTunes, I get on iTunes and pay $2 per show, or buy a whole season at a time. What I can't, I seek elsewhere, including P2P networks. I don't download movies at all, because I can simply get them on DVD.

    The fact is that I'm not going to pay $50 a month for cable or satellite for something that's, frankly, not worth that much to me. Television and movie studios can either get compensation for their stuff by making it available to me in a manner I want (iTunes/timely release of DVDs), or they can get bupkiss when I download it for free, an option that I'd really rather avoid, to be honest.

    If, god forbid, the industry succeeds somehow in making television shows impossible to download, then I simply won't watch their stuff at all. Most of it has that little value to me.

    It's all so stupid. I can't believe there's an industry out there that is so desperate to stop the pirates that they're willing to forego billions of dollars, yet here we are, living it.

    If someone gave you the choice of making $1 billion for making a television show, but the show is pirated to an extent such that over half the people who watch it don't pay you, or making $500 million for making a television show with little or no piracy of it at all with a much, much smaller audience, which would you prefer?

    Yeah, me too. Stupid, huh?

    As for porn, I don't care. I've only seen a few porn movies myself, and I don't find them exciting. I honestly think that porn is one of those things that everyone thinks they're supposed to be really into, so they watch it and act like it's a big deal; but realistically, once you've seen one, you've pretty much seen them all. People get naked and do it, ho hum. Check out this other one where... Um... People get naked and do it, ho hum. But you know, whatever. I guess if there's anything I don't understand about that is why people still buy DVDs or the naughty channels on cable when they can pretty much get anything they want over the Internet.

    • The fact is that I'm not going to pay $50 a month for cable or satellite for something that's, frankly, not worth that much to me.

      I agree, and this is why Free-to-Air satellite, and the dismal excuse for basic cable that Comcast gives me are okay options. I record those things of interest with my MythTV [mythtv.org] Knoppix distro [mysettupbox.tv]. While there aren't that many science fiction shows, I am quite satisfied to watch whatever comes across the airwaves, like ST:TNG, and the weekly episode of Farscape. I can't justify spen
    • Re:A shame... (Score:5, Insightful)

      by MillionthMonkey (240664) on Wednesday December 27 2006, @04:05PM (#17380952)
      If someone gave you the choice of making $1 billion for making a television show, but the show is pirated to an extent such that over half the people who watch it don't pay you, or making $500 million for making a television show with little or no piracy of it at all with a much, much smaller audience, which would you prefer?

      $1 billion and no future customers vs. $0.5 billion and lots of currently unsatisfied future customers?

      They're not exactly in it for the money, not for today anyway. You're thinking short term. The RIAA and their partners at Microsoft are willing to make the necessary investments now so that they can eventually do for arts, culture, and politics what DeBeers did for diamonds. They basically want a stranglehold on popular culture so that they can reduce the diversity of viewpoints you hear and limit the quality of audio/video signals that you see- quite a lucrative position to be in that also confers significant political power. With consolidated media you can selectively promote political candidates who will let your lobbyists write the bills that they pass in Congress, and you can easily suppress alternative viewpoints from being heard anywhere except on the Internet. Political suppression on the Internet will require political/legislative fixes, to solve problems like Net Neutrality that just let anyone say anything.
    • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

      In the case of TV, the networks have a special consideration: nearly free bandwidth. They get premium advertising space delivered into everybody's home for free, which allows them to produce really expensive shows with a truly national audience. And the must-carry laws mean that they have to be available on cable systems, too.

      Therefore, pay-to-download doesn't just substitute one form of income for another; it completely undermines this immense boondoggle they've been given in over-the-air broadcasting. And
    • by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday December 27 2006, @04:24PM (#17381168)
      Uhhh, I don't know what planet you're living on, but here on Earth, porn is VERY popular, if anything, MORE people are fans of it than care to admit. The whole beauty of Internet porn is the SHEER variety of it all. Seen one, seen 'em all? I could say the same thing about Chinese people, but that would be just ignorant, wouldn't it? If you're not into porn, and it's "all the same to you", that's fine and dandy. I can't fathom why people like professional football so much. Seen one game, seen em all, right?
    • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

      I agree with most of that. The only point I would differ on is that they charge way too much per season for most TV shows. There are some shows I would like to have, but not at $50 or more per season. They're taking something we're used to getting for free (with ads) and assigning a fairly high price tag to it. Yes, I know how many hours of entertainment it is, but it's still kind of a lot to ask when you've already seen it for free.

      Take Heroes for example. I'd much rather go to nbc.com and watch any episod
    • Re:A shame... (Score:5, Informative)

      by Jimmay (1009425) on Wednesday December 27 2006, @06:02PM (#17382258)
      Pr0n is all the same???? Are you serious???

      Here's some of what you're missing:

      Straight hardcore, girl on girl, 3-somes, BJ-only, HJ-only, foursomes, orgies, orgies with vampires (my personal fave), black porn, white porn, asian porn (another fun one), watersports (need to take a leak?), bukakke (are you thirsty?), double stuffing (only if your buddy and you are REALLY secure), gay hardcore, gay orgies (not my cup of tea), amateur, amateur upskirts (that creepy guy in the clubs with a vidcam and a raincoat on), amateur db (downblouse viewing), latex fetish, puffy fetish (these are hilarious! almost as much fun as a ball-gag, a ball-pean hammer, and a fifth of Jack)..... and I haven't even touched on the various sub-genres of poop pr0n!

      Hmmm.... off to the newsgroups.....
    • Re:A shame... (Score:5, Insightful)

      by Lumpy (12016) on Wednesday December 27 2006, @06:33PM (#17382532) Homepage
      First, the bullshit the executives use about tv shows "pirated" is exactly that. Bullshit. Advertisers are not paying less to air during the shows that are being "pirated" in fact the shows that are heavily pirated are the top shows and earn the MOST money. BattleStar Galactica is the #1 "pirated" show on TV next to the simpsons. Both make craploads of money and get paid for what they did, the channel that aired it got paid for the advertising during the airtime, JUST LIKE NORMAL.

      Anyone that says you are stealing a TV show that AIRED is so full of it they stink. the show was created, they got paid for it, the broadcaster got paid for airing it by the commercials that aired during it. THEY ALL GOT THEIR MONEY.

      The exec's that are whining like little babies are the ones that want to wring another $1.00 per viewing out of it after it aired. I.E. the pigs that smell the cooking bacon out there and want a piece of that pie too.

      It's drivin by 100% unadulterated greed, and they try to villify it to justify it in the minds of the public.... Their real definition is that you are a thief if you have a VCR, DVR, recording DVD player or PC that can watch it... They just dont say that in public as it will piss off the public.
      • Maybe I'm just basing this on myself or social expectations, but you seem really screwed up.

              Honestly guy, you've never been butt-raped in the mud by a doberman while being tied up and whipped by your dungeon mistress? Everybody is doing it! You don't know what you're missing! Maybe you're the one who needs to see a sexologist. Loosen up, pal, it fun! :)
        • --
          Seven puppies were harmed during the making of this post.


          Suddenly your sig made much more sense...
        • Re: (Score:3, Informative)

          Well, the OP didn't really say he had no interest in sex, just in porn. To be fair, I understand what he means. I've not seen much porn in my 20 years on this Earth, but go to a random porn site. Now another. Huh... You know... they look kinda... nearly... 100% identical.

          Isn't that a bit like saying that once you've tried out the different positions a few times there's no reason to have sex again because you'd just be doing the same thing over and over again? Or that there's no rational reason for wanting a variety of partners because they're all identically equipped? A pussy's a pussy, after all.

          In defense of porn, you can't really expect them to scale new heights of originality with their subject matter. There's only so many variations of suck/lick/fuck you can do.

  • by eln (21727) on Wednesday December 27 2006, @03:36PM (#17380638) Homepage
    10MB is still well within the range of the size of videos porn sites flood the net with as teasers to get people to go pay for the full-length stuff on their websites. Just because it's being downloaded for free via P2P doesn't mean it's piracy or illegal, it may be precisely what the publishers of the content wanted.
  • > The largest target continues to be adult oriented content and TV shows, with only an estimated 5 percent being mainstream movie content. From the article:

    The Internet is for porn! [youtube.com] (What NDP wrote!)
    The Internet is for porn! (I shake my Wiimote!)
    Wii up all night honking our horn
    To porn, porn, porn!

  • by macadamia_harold (947445) on Wednesday December 27 2006, @03:38PM (#17380658) Homepage
    Nearly 60 percent of video files downloaded from P2P sites were adult-film content, while 20 percent was TV show content and 5 percent was mainstream movie content.

    Only 60 percent? The fact that the amount of porn being downloaded is nowhere near the 90% mark surely spells doom for the mainstream tv & movie industry.
  • by $RANDOMLUSER (804576) on Wednesday December 27 2006, @03:40PM (#17380694)
    Blockbuster doesn't carry pr0n, neither does Wal-Mart. Besides, your neighbors are at Wal-Mart.

    I think TV series are in the position that VHS movies were 15 years ago. Back then, movies cost 80$ US, and nobody bought them. When the price came down to the 20$ range, they started to sell. I think many people feel the same about TV series. At 80$ a season, they're not going to sell. I mean, after all it's just a TV show. If the prices came down to the 30$ range, I bet more people would buy them because they're major fans, or to watch the two episodes they missed.
      • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

        My problem with iTunes is that $2 per show (regardless of time) is just too damn much. That comes out to $40 per season for a 20 episode season.

        Most (all?) seasons on iTunes are cheaper than $1.99 times the number of episodes. The ones I've looked at are $35.

        Why buy on iTunes?

        • They are available the day after the show airs.
        • With a season pass, they show up automatically.
        • They are immediately and easily played on your computer (where I watch my TV).
        • Can be played on iPods, and soon iTVs, which covers absolutely every (non-contrived) scenario for TV viewing.
        • iTunes downloads are very fast.
        • Price-point is acceptable (to me).

        Of course, YMMV (and in fact, clearly does), bu

        • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

          No, TV without commercials wasn't the idea of cable. Cable was invented so that people who lived in places that couldn't properly get TV from an antenna could watch TV. The first cable-only channel, HBO, was commercial-free and still is, but the very next cable-only channel, TBS, had commercials. Please stop spreading that bullshit.

          http://inventors.about.com/library/inventors/blcab letelevision.htm [about.com]

          Sure enough! No need to be impolite.

          Thanks.
  • by Dirtside (91468) on Wednesday December 27 2006, @03:44PM (#17380734) Journal
    Pirate that I am, I evilly downloaded the first three episodes of Heroes because I wanted to see what all the fuss was about. The videos I downloaded had had ALL THE COMMERCIALS REMOVED! No revenue for you, NBC!

    Of course, as a result, my wife and I sit down and watch Heroes on NBC every week, including commercials (we don't watch enough TV to need a TiVo). If we hadn't been able to illegally download those videos, we'd likely not be watching the show OR the commercials.

    So I ask: Did it benefit or hurt NBC that I illegally downloaded and watched the first three episodes of Heroes?
    • by voice_of_all_reason (926702) on Wednesday December 27 2006, @03:50PM (#17380804)
      You hurt them on the inside ;(
    • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

      You can go to www.nbc.com and download Heroes episodes from thier website. Not sure if includes commercials or not, but IMO, nbc is doing the right thing here by allowing access to episodes over the web (even if it was with commercials).
    • Re: (Score:3, Informative)

      I watched all 11 Heros episodes over the last 3 days - right from NBC.com with very limited advertising. There was 4 or 5 commercial breaks that lasted about 15 seconds each - and showed the exact same commercial each time. It was an interesting approach. The commercials were short enough that I didn't get irritated by them, yet by showing the same one 5 times in about 40 minutes I do remember what companies were doing the advertising.
      • Re: (Score:3, Informative)

        Are you a Nielsen viewer (as in, are you one of the people that Nielsen Media Research surveys to see what people watch on TV)? If no, then whether you watch Heroes on the air or from piracy makes absolutly no difference to NBC.

        Actually, Nielsen has set-top boxes in a small fraction of homes all the time, but then does random polling of the general population to supplement and calibrate the data they get from "Nielsen families." So *any* of us might figure into Nielsen's statistics, if we happen to get tha

  • 5 Percent? (Score:5, Interesting)

    by SandwhichMaster (1044184) on Wednesday December 27 2006, @03:47PM (#17380764) Homepage
    The MPAA is constantly whining, wasting millions of dollars, and annoying all of us over 5 percent? I made the mistake of buying a DVD recently and had to sit through that annoying anti piracy clip. You know... "You wouldn't steal a car would you? You wouldn't steal a purse..." Yeah, because stealing a car, and copying a DVD are even remotely the same. Its frustrating and insulting that every time I watch my PURCHASED DVD, this stupid thing will come up. I don't like being accused of stealing, before watching my movies. Ironically, if I'd have just pirated the movie, I wouldn't be seeing that clip, as well as other annoying previews. Maybe they should concentrate on making good movies to win over new customers, instead of insulting remaining customers.
    • "Ironically, if I'd have just pirated the movie, I wouldn't be seeing that clip, as well as other annoying previews."

      Every time I've watched one of those commercials at a theater I've heard a few people say "How do you download movies?"
  • Outstrip? (Score:4, Funny)

    by voice_of_all_reason (926702) on Wednesday December 27 2006, @03:47PM (#17380766)
    v. to outdo; surpass; excel.

    I don't think this word means what you think it means. To outstrip legal downloads, piracy would have had to been behind first, which is a preposterous claim.
  • tv shows illegal? (Score:3, Insightful)

    by jupiterssj4 (801031) on Wednesday December 27 2006, @04:00PM (#17380910)
    Why is downloading TV shows illegal? They are broadcast for free on the tv anyway, and I just fast forward at 5X through the commercials on my DVR, so I don't see them anyway. Why are they pissy about tv shows being bad to download, oh no! someone might actually watch their show! I agree about porn being up there, its because its expensive and not at common rental places or stores
    • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

      Why is downloading TV shows illegal?

      I pretty much agree with you if they're broadcast over-the-air shows, but some of the most popular shows being downloaded are actually shows on HBO, SHO, etc, which are premium channels with no commercials to begin with.

      That being said, I can also understand why people continue to do it: Premium cable is not at all cheap.

  • by Nightspirit (846159) on Wednesday December 27 2006, @04:00PM (#17380914)
    ...and it is incredibly addicting. Xbox live media download has serious flaws (lack of content, lack of chapters, etc.) but it is incredibly easy to use. I've already spent $60 on there due to just being bored and having instant (well, within 5 minutes) gratification. I've since toned down my purchases, but that $60 is more than I've spent all year on DVDs and CDs.

    I believe once content providers use and improve on this model pay pay to download content will approach or surpass illegal downloads.
  • by vertinox (846076) on Wednesday December 27 2006, @04:01PM (#17380916)
    Seeing what the answer to that question will explain why piracy is doing better than legitimate sales.

    As soon as they put the videos online for sale and download without DRM and a standardized format (Divx or Xvid), I think you will see a dramatic change.
    • My method (Score:3, Interesting)

      Sales! I buy DVDs when they make it into the $5.49 bin at WalMart or the $7.50-9.99 bin anywhere else.* Bring'em home, rip'em**, copy'em to my server***, then put'em into a closet.**** I'm not big into extras or anything, and copying the VIDEO_TS folders would take up too much room anyway, so I'm happy to have one file per movie.

      I've also recently discovered that this method also works with DVDs from the library. :-) I imagine it would also work with NetFlix discs.

      * There's no such thing as "I've got to hav
      • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

        ** I rip them with HandBrake on Mac OS X to ~1500kbps, deinterlaced, 2-pass H264 MP4s.

        Six hours encoding time for a 100 minute movie (give or take depending on content), is that about right?

        Disk space is cheaper than my time. I just rip the VIDEO_TS and watch with a DVD player a few minutes later.
  • by grapeape (137008) <mpope7NO@SPAMkc.rr.com> on Wednesday December 27 2006, @04:15PM (#17381072) Homepage
    I download the occasional tv show, when I happen to be busy when the show I like is broadcast or I fail to tivo it. IMHO if the Execs would look at the big picture they would find that it probably increases revenue rather than lessens it. Take 24 for instance, its a show where you pretty much have to see every episode, if I miss one I download it. The alternative is to wait until the season is over and buy the box set, which I do anyway. When I miss a show or several episodes and cant find a torrent, I generally just stop watching until the box set is available so they loose my eyeballs the rest of the season. Usually somewhere in between the missed show and the dvd release I tend to loose interest and forget about it, so they loose even the dvd revenue. This is what happend with me and Lost, I watched all of the first season, missed almost a month of season two and the only torrents I could find were unbearably slow so I just stopped watching. I had every intention of getting it on DVD but found another show I liked that was on at the same time so I still havent bothered.

    I dont have an IPod and dont care for itunes, but if I could buy a download at a reasonable price that was at a resolution viewable on my tv I would have no problem doing so. A few networks have at least figured out part of that, my son for example watches Ben10 on cartoon networks website for free regularly. Since its free he doesnt mind watching it on the computer, they flash banner ads so they get their ad revenue and everyone is happy.

    For some reason the networks have a hard time accepting that times have changed the days of the whole family sitting down at 8pm to watch Ed Sullivan are long over, people are busier and have more diversions and distractions. Giving the viewing audience flexability is the future, the old ways will die, it might take a while and will be fought tooth and nail but its no less inevitable.
  • by Weaselmancer (533834) on Wednesday December 27 2006, @04:16PM (#17381080)

    8 percent (six million households) downloaded at least one digital video file (10MB or larger) from a P2P service for free in the third quarter of 2006.

    Free? Nonsense! I have to pay my ISP every month!

    Nyuk nyuk nyuk!

  • NPD group is biased (Score:5, Informative)

    by bigberk (547360) <bigberk@users.pc9.org> on Wednesday December 27 2006, @04:47PM (#17381494)

    Report is from NPD Group, well who are their clients [npd.com] ... EMI Music (a large RIAA member).

    This is not an unbiased research firm, they are a marketing company and will serve the interests of their clients.

    Probably just another arm of the RIAA/MPAA. I don't see how it would possibly serve this for-profit company's interests to say anything other than downloading is theft

  • by gelfling (6534) on Wednesday December 27 2006, @11:07PM (#17384162) Homepage Journal
    So it's a win win for everyone.
    • Re:Pr0n? (Score:5, Funny)

      by Lord Kano (13027) on Wednesday December 27 2006, @03:50PM (#17380794) Homepage Journal
      Those porn actors should not complain about loss of sales, they get busy each and every day for hours! Who are they to complain! :-D

      Would you want to fuck Ron Jeremy for free?

      LK
      • Re:Pr0n? (Score:5, Interesting)

        by owlnation (858981) on Wednesday December 27 2006, @06:06PM (#17382294)
        Those porn actors should not complain about loss of sales, they get busy each and every day for hours! Who are they to complain! :-D
        Not sure how things work in the San Fernando valley, but in Europe for straight porn or fetish shoots the men don't usually get paid, just the women. A rare male will get paid if he is exceptionally talented - i.e. hugely endowed and able to perform on camera. You'd be amazed how few men can actually deliver the moneyshot with an audience.

        Actually there are many things about the reality of the porn business that would amaze most people, mostly about how mundane and professional it is, and the large number of women who are porn producers - not performers. One day I really should write a book.

        And yes, porn actors in my experience are a pretty happy lot. They are much easier to deal with than "real" actors; fewer tantrums, less drug abuse, punctual, professional, sober, reliable, etc...
    • by Dunbal (464142) on Wednesday December 27 2006, @04:12PM (#17381026)
      That only 4.8% of internet users downloaded 10 MB of internet porn?

            No, it's a survey, remember? Only 4.8% of internet users ADMITTED to downloading 10MB of porn ;)
    • Re: (Score:3, Informative)

      Wow, people using the Internet to download TV episodes they missed, i.e., timeshifting, which is allowed by the Fair Use clause?

      Downloading TV episodes you "missed" is not timeshifting as was ruled fair use under Betamax.

      Receiving it through the regular broadcast means and recording it yourself is timeshifting. Getting a copy from someone else who recorded it, edited it from the format it was broadcast (say, by removing commercials) and made it available to you is something completely different.

      • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

        That 10% uses 80% of the bandwidth. So I've always told other ISP's that they can kick the 10% if they want to and it won't effect profits.

        Yes because heaven forbid that someone who signed up for your service actually USES the bandwidth you have promised him. Or did you just make promises that you really can't/have no intention of keeping? Here, sign up, pay the monthly fee, but don't use the service. This is like a car insurance company that decides not to pay a claim because someone