NPD Group Says "Wait! HD-DVD Isn't Dead Yet"

The NPD group, owners of the not-quite-as-popular-as-they-had-hoped HD-DVD format, attempted to battle back against the tide of "naysayers" who claim that the format war is over and have declared Blu-Ray Disc the winner. "While select articles have implied that HD-DVD as a format is doomed and the sky is falling for the format's supporters, the NPD Group this afternoon reinforced that sales results from a single week do not necessarily indicate a trend, and that the week in question had several intriguing variables that have gone unreported."

A Modest Proposal

[divide overflow (599608)]

If the NPD Group really wants to shake things up they ought to offer free HD-DVD licenses.

Re:A Modest Proposal

[BosstonesOwn (794949)]

They need to get burners to market in mass quantity as well as offer those licenses for free or very very small royalties.

Like pennies per unit. Plus they need to get the consumer on their side. The more hd-dvd players out there the more the industry has to listen. Unfortunately with the economy tanking this is hard. Right now I personally would put money making on the back burner and just look to break even. Make hd-dvd discs cheaper to buy then a normal dvd and make the players cheaper. At that point this whole thing can turn around , with consumer demand the studios have to listen. If smaller studios stick to the format then there really can be a price market , smaller studios usually make lower cost films and don't need to recoup so much back.

The reason I say they need burners in high volume asap, is that whether they like it or not piracy is often times a real boost to sales. It's been proven that it helps.( http://www.stargeek.com/item/41324.html [stargeek.com] ) ( http://techrepublic.com.com/5208-6230-0.html?forumID=102&threadID=243454 [com.com] )

The american and canadian dbs providers , even cable can thank piracy for large subscriber growth. They really should get those burners out in high volumes fast.

Re:A Modest Proposal

[hairyfeet (841228)]

It isn't just piracy. As a pc tech I would LOVE a cheap HD-DVD burner to use to back up mine and my customers data files. Plus it would be great for discs full of drivers, older software, etc. Even if it was only the 25Gb discs that were cheap, I think a lot of folks would buy them for backups. I really think they could turn this around ( and have said so in previous posts on the subject) if they can get cheap burners and media into the hands of the public.

Blu-Ray at this point is simply too expensive to be any good for backups,at least for me. And I care more about burning my own media than I do about formats, which is why I and a LOT of people I know are sticking with DVD.And let us not forget that the cheapness of digicams and other forms of user content creation. And people are a lot more used to being able to burn a disc and share it with friends than passing around hard drives. I just hope they are forward thinking enough to see this instead of helping Blu-Ray kill the competition by keeping licenses high.

Re:

[ZorinLynx (31751)]

>Blu-Ray at this point is simply too expensive to be any good for backups

Just wait a little longer. If history teaches us anything, it's that tech never stays expensive for long.

And consider hard drives for backups. Less expensive per gig, faster, and more versatile.

Re:

[MidnightBrewer (97195)]

You mean like how the DVD monopoly has resulted in $600+ players?

Re:

[ColdWetDog (752185)]

Blu-Ray at this point is simply too expensive to be any good for backups,at least for me. And I care more about burning my own media than I do about formats, which is why I and a LOT of people I know are sticking with DVD.And let us not forget that the cheapness of digicams and other forms of user content creation.

I'm genuinely curious - why are you (and just about every other geek who just doesn't want to back up his porn collection) so interested in an untested format for archival purposes? DVDs and CD

Re:A Modest Proposal

[hairyfeet (841228)]

Actually I have had pretty good luck with the really cheap media,as well. I know I am dating myself(but hell I'm too dang old to care) but I was one of those idiots that bought a $200 4X DVD burner when they first came out,so I have some discs going back 5-6 years. And I have bought mostly whatever was on sale at the time,and so far no problems. I have found if you keep them out of direct light and are VERY careful in how you handle them(I found this out from my nephews who spin the discs on the spindle when looking for discs,ouch) they work great with no read errors.

Plus I think that a lot of folks out there have stuff they want to back up that is really pointless for anything other than discs. I have about a spindle full of drivers for most of the major pc manufacturers from my days at the repair shop. It would be crazy to waste the money on a HDD for stuff I only need once in a blue moon,whereas it is only 25c to back it up on DVD. And at that price I can afford to make more than one copy of things I really want to keep.

And for those of you who have a disc that has trouble reading, I have had very good luck with this [elprime.com]. I know most of the recovery tools are bunk, but I've recovered discs with this that literally looked like someone had played hockey with them. Great tool to have in your toolkit.

Re:

[morari (1080535)]

Well, I can assure you that without a solid method of piracy I won't be switching over from DVD films any time soon. NetFlix, a spindle of blank discs, and a few mouse clicks per film has increased my collection exponentially. :P

Re:A Modest Proposal

[squiggleslash (241428)]

I'm trying to work out why the submitter thinks the NPD group has anything to do with HD DVD at all, let alone that they're the supporters. You appear to think the same thing. NPD is a market research firm. They, amongst other things, collect tallies of sales figures and pass this on to analysts and industry. They're complaining that various outlets misinterpreted their latest figures showing an immediate drop in HD DVD player sales just after the Warner announcement. One of those outlets was Slashdot, yesterday. They're not "supporters" of HD DVD, any more than they're "supporters" of Blu-ray.

Re:

[Wdomburg (141264)]

There is a finalized spec, but it's silly to say that Blu-ray also doesn't have a finalized spec. For watching movies, it's finalized enough. They are adding newer stupid features. Totally ok.

Really? It's silly to say there isn't a finalized spec? Care to explain why there isn't a signle 2.0 player on the market yet, then?

As for whether it's "finalized enough" is a matter of opinion. If I'm going to pay a premium price for discs I want to be able to access all the features, period. Maybe you don't perso

Re:

[Cyphertube (62291)]

I personally hate Blu-Ray about as much as I hate DVD. I can't stand the region encoding, primarily because I have travelled a lot and I'm a linguist. I like to be able to buy foreign films, or foreign releases of films so that I can have subtitles in languages I want or be able to see the films I want. I don't know many places that will release Finnish films in a US region format.

That's one of the beauties about HD television, in that we use the same standards. So I love HD-DVD. If I buy an HD-DVD in the U

Why the hate?

[Berkyjay (1225604)]

So does everyone here hate HD DVD because of some orrational hatred of Microsoft? I personally like HD DVD for it's cheaper price and the lack of heavy handed tactics used to try and force us all to convert. One of us. One of us. One of us.

Might as well ask the same in reverse

[SmallFurryCreature (593017)]

So do you hate BluRay because of some irrational hatred of Sony? I personally like BluRay because it comes free with a PS3 and the lack of have handed tactics by MS (such as buying support) used to try and force us all to convert. One of us. One of us. One of us.

Frankly if you want to look at the sides involved you could at most choose the lesser of two evils, lets see who is the convicted monopolist again? Who is the rootkit company again? Who insist on ignoring standards and enforcing their own inferior solutions on the public?

Sorry, this format war was about the difference between Jack Johnson and John Jackson. If the parties involved had been smart they would simply have merged their products and saved everyone a lot of trouble.

Oh and I don't hate MS, I just don't trust them, they got a very long history of lying to serve their own goals. Sony does the same, but I have never ever been forced to use a Sony product that was riddled with bugs. Can you say the same for MS?

Re:

[feepness (543479)]

I dislike Sony because it's Japanese,

I see. Toshiba is an American company now?

Re:

[BosstonesOwn (794949)]

No , but read further down , right now hd-dvd is the lesser of 2 evils.

If i have to buy imported stuff at least let it be the lesser of the 2 evils.

Re:

[Moonpie Madness (764217)]

OK, at least you're honest.

You do realize that HD-DVD players are also Japanese, right? No? You mean bigoted morons are ignorant? Shock. Frankly, Sony competes side by side against South Korean and American electronics. It just does its best, and has no monopolies. Microsoft does not compete fairly and has serious monopolies that it exploits. We're a global economy, and Sony is a lot better for us than MS is. You are free, moron, to buy stock in Sony.

And how are you beinf forced to buy a new blu-ray

Re:

[king-manic (409855)]

Uh, no. HD-DVD mandates Managed Copy, completely cutting your argument to shreds.

HD-DVD was a format that mediated between the needs of consumers and media companies. Blu-ray is designed entirely and only for media companies (what do you know - Sony also has a significant media arm...can't see any problem with that?)

My original assertion still stands. He has never ripped a copy of HD DVD. Your article was from 2005, stating they wanted to support managed copy. As of yet nothing exists to do this.

Managed Copy? [betanews.com]
No Managed copy now? [engadget.com]
Both may get Managed Copy? [arstechnica.com]
Still not here [msmvps.com]
Managed copy? Not right now. [pcworld.com]

basically it does not yet exist but both camps proclaim it will happen someday. I'm sure it will because the day hackers breech the protection schemes in a complete and easy to use way managed copy will be right there. Until th

Re:

[doctor_no (214917)]

You gotta be kidding. Sony is certainly more American then Toshiba, Sony's biggest share-holder is American (Dodge & Cox), not to mention its run by an Welsh-American CEO. By comparison, Toshiba has to be the most un-American company in existence. During the Cold War, Toshiba was found guilty of illegally selling the Soviet Union and helping build propellers for Russian nuclear submarines that could sneak past NATO's defenses, which is against the COCOM agreement that the US and Japan are both part o

Re:

[melonman (608440)]

Toshiba was found guilty of illegally selling the Soviet Union

Wow, respect! How much did they get for it? With such incredible marketing skills, it seems all the stranger that they couldn't sell the HD-DVD format. I mean, that was legal...

Re:

[terjeber (856226)]

I don't like being forced into buying a new player every time they want to update their specs.

Sigh. Why is it that all these HD DVD fans are always spouting this ignorance? Before you open your bigoted mouth, why don't you try to figure out the facts of the matter? Here is some advice for you: Better to keep your mouth shut and have people think you are an idiot than to open it and remove all doubt.

No, you don't have to get a new player to watch Blu-Ray movies in the future when the spec is updated. You

Re:

[terjeber (856226)]

Since Microsoft is much less involved in HD-DVD than Sony is in Blu-Ray, it is not only irrationnal, but a bit uninformed, to use Microsoft practices are a main argument to judge the HD-DVD format.

That's just funny. You are joking right? You can't be that uninformed. Microsoft is the sole reason that there is an HD DVD format. Toshiba wanted to drop this long ago but were persuaded by MS to keep it up.

Personnally if I had to choose between both I'd choose HD-DVD for the lack of region coding and the fact

Re:

[Moonpie Madness (764217)]

first, it seems like there were extremely heavy handed tactics used by MS to, once again, damage a market and exploit it.

I don't think there is anything irrational in resisting Microsoft doing for the umpteenth time what they have done over and over before. They don't want HD-DVD to succeed, they want the consumers to be confused and screwed until their internet distro takes off.

And cheaper for early adopters is a piss poor reason to pick a standard. It's pretty obvious that both blu-ray and hd-dvd are pl

Re:

[feepness (543479)]

So does everyone here hate HD DVD because of some orrational hatred of Microsoft? I

I "hate" it because it's dead. If it would have been successful I would have been behind it. I almost thought it was last August when Paramount went exclusive... but it's over now and any foot-dragging on Toshiba/Microsoft's part just delays the production of quality content being distributed to the masses.

Re:

[Ilgaz (86384)]

So does everyone here hate HD DVD because of some orrational hatred of Microsoft? I personally like HD DVD for it's cheaper price and the lack of heavy handed tactics used to try and force us all to convert.

One of us.
One of us.
One of us.

OS X, the de facto standard on Movie production doesn't have any kind of HD-DVD support. Nothing. XCode is there, driverkit, quicktime SDK, extensive documentation, top class developer accounts, the fact of being number 1 mac software vendor.

Where is HDVD support for OS X?

Why a rich consumer (not pro) can write BluRay discs via Toast+BluRay firewire recorder but professionals can't? Because there is Microsoft involved. Basic. If you start a new system, format, go with a real professional company who actual

This calls for ...

[laejoh (648921)]

A customer enters a multimedia shop.

Customer: 'Ello, I wish to register a complaint.

(The owner does not respond.)

C: 'Ello, Miss?

Owner: What do you mean "miss"?

C: I'm sorry, I have a cold. I wish to make a complaint!

O: We're closin' for lunch.

C: Never mind that, my lad. I wish to complain about this hd-dvd what I purchased not half an hour ago from this very boutique.

O: Oh yes, the, uh, the format...What's,uh...What's wrong with it?

C: I'll tell you what's wrong with it, my lad. 'E's dead, that's wh

Re:

[stormguard2099 (1177733)]

I think the correct answer is a shorter quote...

Bad Summary, NPD Doesn't Own HD-DVD

[rsmith-mac (639075)]

The summary is partially incorrect. The NPD Group [wikipedia.org] is a research firm, they do not own the HD-DVD format or anything close to it. The closest thing to HD-DVD's owners would be the DVD Forum [wikipedia.org], which is a consortium of companies.

The reason NPD is involved in this is because they are one of the big research firms for tracking sales data. NPD is the firm that released the earlier reporting talking about HD-DVD hardware sales slowing [slashdot.org] and this is a clarification of that. They are pointing out that one week's results can not be extrapolated to argue that HD-DVD is dying/dead like many people did, it's too short of a time period in a week with several unusual variables.

Misleading summary

[mincognito (839071)]

The NPD group are not the owners of the HD-DVD format, they are a market research company. Toshiba is a major client so statements from NPD in regard to HD-DVD should be taken with a grain of salt.

Misleading summary

[brianmotzen (1227320)]

NPD group is not an owner of the HD-DVD format. They are just a bunch of market analysts who provide information to retailers. See their website : http://www.npd.com/corpServlet?nextpage=profile_s.html [npd.com]

Not dead yet!

[Darkman, Walkin Dude (707389)]

It wants to go for a walk!

Re:

[Mansing (42708)]

Well, it's...it's, ah...probably pining for the fjords.

Not so fast...

[by Anonymous Coward]

As an insider I can attest to the fact that the online world has been nailed by one of the most successful viral marketing campaigns ever waged in a digital format war. An unnamed company (or three) got together before the recent announcement by Warner Bros in the weeks before CES to orchestrate this domino effect. The game plan was, in a nutshell, that Warner Bros would announce their support for Blu-Ray (even though they will continue to make HD-DVD for some time) and their subsidiaries would follow closely with announcements. Then it was revealed that Walt Disney Studios Home Entertainment and Twentieth Century-Fox Home Entertainment would reaffirm their commitment to the format. This information was fed into the biggest gadget blogs with the underlying message that the war is over. This was parroted near verbatim by submissions to all of the major technology and social bookmarking sites. Major audio video forums had been primed with posters working for the viral marketing firms employed to pull this off. Overnight every major site on the internet along with mainstream media was singing the Blu-Ray song. To make sure the statistics following CES would confirm the "Blu-Ray has won" story manufacturers were heavily discounting Blu-Ray players. This week, much to no ones surprise, this came true.

So why am I sharing this? I am firmly in the Blu-Ray camp but the techniques employed in this war have been rather unethical. Which blog or news agency will be the first to hunt down the facts in this story to confirm my story?

Don't buy it? Then read this article on TechChrunch [techcrunch.com] which describes the same techniques used to market viral videos.

Re:Not so fast...

[feepness (543479)]

As an insider I can attest to the fact that the online world has been nailed by one of the most successful viral marketing campaigns ever waged in a digital format war. An unnamed company (or three) got together before the recent announcement by Warner Bros in the weeks before CES to orchestrate this domino effect.

I heard they also flew a missile into the Pentagon. Did you know that a real airliner couldn't have made that hole and that they stole all the tapes of the event?

Re:

[Moonpie Madness (764217)]

How in the world is this unethical?

Are you insane? Warner moving over was a big deal, so why not maximize the news?

HD-DVD players are absurdly discounted, and the sales figures are cited with as much attention as the DVD forum can muster. But when blu-ray players do the same this is somehow wrong? Why?

Blu-ray won. Better business plan. They got the right partners, had their discounts at the right time, and the customer clearly prefers it. They masterfully communicated the truth: that the war is over.

S

Re:Not so fast...

[RedWizzard (192002)]

Whether all the press has been orchestrated or not is largely irrelevant. What is relevant is that Blu-ray has the majority of the studio support and has the higher market share. An undecided buyer would have to be pretty brave to bet on HD-DVD at this point.

Re:

[olman (127310)]

Except that by buying HD-DVD player you get cheap upscaling DVD player that can play HD discs as a bonus.

Not much bravery required. It's not like the player stops working if some studio stops supporting it.

Brave? No. Intrigued by high def? Yes.

[Xest (935314)]

"An undecided buyer would have to be pretty brave to bet on HD-DVD at this point."

Why is that? You can get an HD-DVD player now with 7 films for the same price as 7 bluray films without a player here in the UK. The Bluray player costs an extra £250 on top so that's a pretty big difference for now. Even if HD-DVDs stop being produced you've still got 7 high def films and a nice upscaling DVD player.

Even if HD-DVD is dead, the current deal on Toshiba's low end player is hard to argue against because you

Karma-whoring suggestion

[Ethanol-fueled (1125189)]

HD-DVD can make a comeback. How, you ask? Make it a DRM-free format :)
 
While I'm dreaming, I'd like an F-15.

Re:Karma-whoring suggestion

[squiggleslash (241428)]

You laugh, but HD DVD is at least a DRM optional format like DVD. Blu-ray mandates AACS - you can't press a Blu-ray disc without AACS for some reason.

Not that any studios are putting out AACS free HD DVD discs, but the possibility is there for any company that wants to act ethically - or that just doesn't see the onerous licensing requirements as worth the money supposedly saved by using DRM.

And yeah, I like the fact HD DVD is region free too.

Just dreaming of Norway

[Cannelloni (969195)]

It not dead yet, just resting and dreaming of Norway.

Black Knight

[zepo1a (958353)]

Blu-Ray: You fight with the strength of many men, HD-DVD. [Slashes HD-DVD's arm off]
HD-DVD: 'Tis but a scratch.
Blu-Ray: A scratch? Your arm's off!
HD-DVD: No, it isn't.
BLU-RAY: Victory is mine! We thank Thee Lord, that in Thy mer--
HD-DVD: Hah! [kick] Come on, then. Have at you!

Re:

[Dunbal (464142)]

And I, on the other hand, invoke Godwin [broadcaster.com].

The war is over.

[foxtrot (14140)]

You can talk about sales rates or attach rates or how much shelf space is dedicated to blue boxes as opposed to red boxes, you can talk about technical merit or political merit, you can talk about studios committing to or being bought out by one side or another. You can talk about all number of things, but I know the war is over.

Blu-ray wins. I know this to be true.

I know this because sitting on the shelf underneath my teevee is a Toshiba HD-A3.

Futureproof the discs

[Xian97 (714198)]

HD DVD has the ability to press a DVD and HD DVD on a disc. I would start including the HD DVD version on every standard DVD. Anyone that doesn't have an HDTV but is planning on getting one sometime in the future can still continue to build their DVD collection, and then enjoy them in HD when they upgrade. That will also provide an incentive to upgrade.

There are still a lot of people out there that do not have the equipment to play either Blu-Ray or HD DVD. Since I work in the tech field, most of my coworkers do, but there are only two of us in my neighborhood that have HDTV. I am the only one in my immediate family that has HDTV as well. Not having to worry about your DVD collection being obsolete by having the HD DVD version as well would be a good selling point.

Re:

[fastest fascist (1086001)]

Next to go: Blu-Ray. Who's still going to be buying plastic discs in 5-10 years time, when a significant amount of people actually have the hardware necessary for viewing HD content?

Re:

[BosstonesOwn (794949)]

I agree , I would like to see content distributed on read only memory cards. I seen 32 gig cards were do out soon. Why can't we see a new format using these instead of optical discs ? Supposedly they are cheap to produce and the newer flash memories can provide enough read speed to watch movies off them. Why not a little more investment in it to make it even faster then optical discs, and completely be done with optical discs.

But that would fail because they probably couldn't pack as much DRM on them to pro

Re:

[by Anonymous Coward]

Excellent! We attack at dawn!

Re:

[mporcheron (897755)]

In the UK, I recall seeing this on the Beeb (six o'clock news) and I'm pretty sure Sky news. Mainstream media may be slow but something like this is quite major.

Re:Essentially

[squiggleslash (241428)]

I agree both formats are probably dead, but not for the reasons you state:

1. Pricing isn't much higher for the media, only the Blu-ray players. HD DVD players right now are the same price as "ordinary" up-converting DVD players, so there's absolutely no reason to buy the latter in place of the former, even if you think HD DVD will fail. As for media: typically HD discs (I'm using that term throughout this for both HD DVDs and Blu-ray Discs) retail for about 50% more than the equivalent DVD, despite often having better additional content and higher quality sound and video. (Note I put sound first, video in so many cases isn't noticeably higher, with some prominent exceptions.
2. Blu-ray and HD DVD players can play DVDs, so the bottom line is that you can buy either player and buy HD discs when they're worth buying and DVDs when they're not
3. Competition from the 'net is a factor, but right now only Apple has a device that "just works" and it's still at the teething stage. It's also rental only. Some of us like to buy discs
4. Your last point is just untrue. An 8Gb SD card costs a minimum of $50 at the moment, compared to a dual layer DVD-R which is generally much lower than a dollar. It's going to take a decade before we see 50Gb solid state drives for the lower than a dollar price (or 500Gb drives for less than $10, if you'd prefer), whereas three layer HD DVD-Rs and two layer BD-Rs will probably come in at that price within two or three years of the recorders becoming widely available. Hey, Toshiba, if you're still serious about HD DVD, start getting those recorders out.

Here's the more probable reason why both formats will likely fail:

The studios are largely backing Blu-ray. That means HD DVD will likely fail unless Toshiba can get a hell of a lot of players out in the next six months.

Blu-ray cannot succeed either. The players are expensive and unlikely to come down in price. Most of the players on shelves right now are obsolete. The only player worth getting is the PS3. The PS3 is sufficiently powerful enough that the upcoming changes to the Blu-ray spec are just a matter of updating the firmware. Many standalone Blu-ray players have no internet connectivity (required for recent Blu-ray spec changes), and nothing like enough storage capacity.

HD DVD, interestingly, doesn't have this issue. Much of the recent revisions to Blu-ray have to do with bringing it up to spec in capabilities to HD DVD. But the studios seem to be going Blu-ray. So it doesn't matter.

I don't think consumers are going to go for either. For Blu-ray to take off, it needs cheap players - sub-$200 before there's any chance of mass market starting to take off, with sub-$100 players to truly achieve DVD-like penetration. it certainly isn't going to work with $300-500 players that you already know you'll need to replace within the year. That'll piss people off, especially when they start playing DVDs and HD discs back to back and notice that the visual quality they paid $300 for isn't that dramatic after all. Oh, sure, 2001 and Blade Runner look awesome. But anything action based isn't, and who cares if a romantic comedy is high definition?

Re:

[king-manic (409855)]

People like to complain that Warner stabbed HDDVD folks in the back, but this is a true stab in the back.

These guys know it's over and are trying to squeeze the last few bucks out of this things before it's all over, so they put out crap like this to get a few suckers.

It's bad for the industry, for their partners (except Microsoft), for the consumer, to let this format war last any longer, and it's over, so let's move on.

These folks are starting to embarrass themselves.

I agree that HD DVD is dead. However NPD is just a market research firm. They just want to clarify that 1 week of data is nto enought o draw conclusions from. Which is a fair comment.