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Yahoo Deal Is Big, but Is It the Next Big Thing?

Journal written by mattsgotredhair (945945) and posted by Soulskill on Sun Feb 03, 2008 08:23 AM
from the keeping-up-with-the-googses dept.
mattsgotredhair brings us a NYTimes article discussing how Microsoft's bid for Yahoo contrasts against one of the core philosophies of Silicon Valley: looking forward. From the Times: "Microsoft may see Yahoo as its last best chance to catch up. But for all its size and ambition, the bid has not been greeted with enthusiasm. That may be because Silicon Valley favors bottom-up innovation instead of growth by acquisition. The region's investment money and brain power are tuned to start-ups that can anticipate the next big thing rather than chase the last one. 'This is the very nature of the Valley,' said Jim Breyer of the venture capital firm Accel Partners. 'After very strong growth, businesses by definition start to slow as competition increases and young creative start-ups begin to attack the incumbents.'"
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[+] Yahoo Bid shows Microsoft on the Ropes 402 comments
Ponca City, We Love You writes "One day after the announcement of Microsoft's plan to buy Yahoo, there is an interesting piece from the NY Times analyzing the reasons behind Microsoft's bid and proposing that the bid is a tacit, and difficult, admission that Microsoft did not get its online business right and that online losses continue to mount while Google makes billions in profit. Microsoft "finds itself in a battle where improving its search algorithms and online ad software is not going to be enough," writes the Times. With the Yahoo bid Microsoft is trying to buy a big enough share of the market to be a credible alternative to Google with online advertisers. "This shows just how worried Microsoft is by Google," says David B. Yoffie. "Microsoft has faced competitive threats before, but none with the size, strength, profitability and momentum of Google.""
[+] Technology: Yahoo May Re-Consider Google Alliance, Rebuff Microsoft 273 comments
anastasd writes "Reuters is reporting that Yahoo might consider a business alliance with Google as a way to top a $44.6 billion takeover proposal by Microsoft. 'Yahoo management is considering revisiting talks it held with Google several months ago on an alliance as an alternative to Microsoft's bid, that source said. At $31 a share, Yahoo believes the bid undervalues the company, two sources said. A second source close to Yahoo said it had received a procession of preliminary contacts by media, technology, telephone and financial companies. But the source said they were unaware whether any alternative bid was in the offing.'"
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  • wrong city (Score:5, Funny)

    by User 956 (568564) on Sunday February 03 2008, @08:25AM (#22281610) Homepage
    That may be because Silicon Valley favors bottom-up innovation

    No, that's San Francisco.
  • by aussie_a (778472) on Sunday February 03 2008, @08:29AM (#22281622) Journal

    That may be because Silicon Valley favors bottom-up innovation instead of growth by acquisition
    This explains why Google is so unpopular in Silicon Valley.
    • Re: (Score:2, Interesting)

      The valley does indeed favor bottom-up innovation, because that generates properties for acquisitions. Most companies in Silicon Valley would not exist in the form they are today if it were not for acquiring other companies or product lines - Oracle, Marvell, Sun, AMD, National Semi, HP, and yes Google.

  • by tgatliff (311583) on Sunday February 03 2008, @08:32AM (#22281628)
    How is this the next big thing when MS buying Yahoo shows how frustrated they are with their MSN Live initiative? Yes, I definitely think that buying Yahoo was a smart move at a great longterm price, but other than them building it directly into Vista 2.0, I dont see how much more good it will do them. The move was simply them "buying" marketshare in an attempt to trump Google. Considering that Yahoo has already shown that they cannot compete with Google, I suspect it will turn out just like the early days of the Compaq / HP deal in relation to Dell. This is just my opinion, however...
    • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

      by Anonymous Coward
      Ballmer wants market share. Logic be damned!
        • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

          This is the ONLY way they get marketshare when they can't get it by leveraging their position on the desktop. And look what marketshare purchases did hotmail.com. They took those numbers and tacked them onto their new-ish MS Exchange numbers and for a couple of years drilled it into the market that Exchange was a contender against Lotus Notes. Purchased marketshare allows them to purchase mindshare. While that has never produced profits for them, it has controlled their competitors growth and therefore cont
    • by TheRaven64 (641858) on Sunday February 03 2008, @08:40AM (#22281662) Homepage Journal

      I suspect it will turn out just like the early days of the Compaq / HP deal in relation to Dell
      While the early days didn't go so well in that deal, HP now has 17.6% of the market while Dell only has 13.9% [itworld.com].
      • by Anonymous Coward on Sunday February 03 2008, @09:12AM (#22281808)
        You can't compare the HP/Compaq merger to a Microsoft/Yahoo! merger. First of all, infrastructure plays a much greater role in the Microsoft/Yahoo! scenario. Yahoo! is heavily run on open source software, including PHP, FreeBSD and Linux. It won't look good for Microsoft if so much more infrastructure is running on software they have belittled for years now.

        So either they'll have to do like they did with Hotmail, and let it run on FreeBSD until they've basically re-written in from scratch to use their technology. Of course, that will be very costly, and likely nowhere near as good as the original (like we've seen with Hotmail). They'll be in the same position they are now, except having spent far more money.

        The HP/Compaq merger was far more about combining product lines, management teams, R&D, support teams, etc. That is, it was more about an organizational merger, rather than a technological acquisition.
        • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

          So either they'll have to do like they did with Hotmail, and let it run on FreeBSD until they've basically re-written in from scratch to use their technology.
          No, they'll just switch to Novell and hail the operation as a great success for interoperability using MS patent encumbered SUSE.
        • There are a number of Open Source contributors working for Yahoo and allowed flexibility in the office to contribute
          back to little things like PHP (Rasmus Lerdorf, creator of PHP is an infrastructure engineer), FreeBSD, Apache, and Perl.
          I have trouble seeing these individuals wasting time doing a like-to-like conversion from open to proprietary
          tools and platforms just because there's money waved in front of them. At that point, what Microsoft has purchased
          is yesterdays tools sans the minds that made them w
          • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

            but profits is not high on the list of goals for the Microsoft/Yahoo deal. HP shareholders were pissed at how it was handled. With this Microsoft/Yahoo proposition, it's all about Microsoft purchasing mindshare and marketshare so they can LOOK like a contender. Right now, Google looks, acts, and is a mighty technical powerhouse and even Wall Street sees this. It makes Microsoft look like an old out-of-touch company and having Gates leave the company this year is not going to help.

            So don't think that ANY Mic
    • If Yahoo declines any further then Flickr, Yahoo Mail, Yahoo Messenger, Yahoo Groups could be acquired by Google to give them a position in markets where they are now only minor players. Yahoo is worth 100 Doubleclick's [blogoscoped.com], 44 billion for that is a bargin.
    • by gEvil (beta) (945888) on Sunday February 03 2008, @09:24AM (#22281868)
      Yes, I definitely think that buying Yahoo was a smart move at a great longterm price...
      The move was simply them "buying" marketshare in an attempt to trump Google.


      Ummm, you are aware that Microsoft has not actually bought Yahoo, right? MS has made Yahoo an offer. Yahoo has not yet responded to that offer.
      • by Herschel Cohen (568) on Sunday February 03 2008, @10:04AM (#22282072) Homepage Journal
        Well it really was not an offer. As I read it, it was a statement of intent. That is, most likely they plan to acquire shares from holders that are willing to sell directly to MS at a premium. Once a sufficient percentage is obtained they move to take over the company by a proxy vote. Control is final after a positive review by the DOJ and the EU.

        This is a hostile take over where the purchaser could care less what either the board and the management thinks or responds.
    • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

      Microsoft has what Yahoo alone doesn't: an almost limitless supply of cash. MS can afford to offer deeply discounted prices to advertisers in order to to eat up Google's marketshare. After they "cut off the air supply" (this is a well-known Microsoft expression), they can start making money from Yahoo. It may take several years, but Microsoft is in no hurry, as long as they can continue selling whatever OS they produce.
      • by pallmall1 (882819) on Sunday February 03 2008, @01:56PM (#22283758)

        MS can afford to offer deeply discounted prices to advertisers in order to to eat up Google's marketshare.
        They can cut the price all they want in order to get more ads and advertisers, but that doesn't mean they'll get more traffic. Marketing is based on the number of people who see the ad and their demographic. If MS cuts the price without a significant increase in traffic, they'll only be reducing the value of their existing base.
    • by Chriscypher (409959) <slashdot&metamedia,us> on Sunday February 03 2008, @12:26PM (#22283034) Homepage
      "More companies die of indigestion than starvation."

      ("The HP Way," Hewlett-Packard co-founder David Packard, page 142)

  • Am I the only one that thinks Microsoft's resources would be better spent fixing some of the more serious complaints about Vista? I know they are going to claim "we can handle both the Yahoo acquisition and improve Vista", but they have addressed few of the major issues with Vista even prior to this announcement.

    Ceding any further market share to Apple (or god forbid, Ubuntu) could seriously threaten their most lucrative monopoly.

    • Do you really think those two things have anything to do with each other? You're mixing up two different divisions in Microsoft.

      Also, do you really think that throwing more programmers at a software project will make it be finished faster?
    • Fixing Vista would be like closing the barn door after the horse escaped. if microsoft had any good sense they would follow in Apple's footsteps (sortof) and build the next version of windows on top of a BSD flavor...
  • by donscarletti (569232) on Sunday February 03 2008, @08:37AM (#22281646)
    It worked when Microsoft bought DOS, it worked when Microsoft bought Hotmail, it's current biggest web service. Microsoft does try to innovate, but most often that stuff just falls flat on its face, when Microsoft buys other people's products though, that's when they hit a winner. Saying that the most wealthy, successful software company in the world is doomed to failure for going against silicon valley reasoning is futile when that's what they've always done and made more than anyone else while doing.
    • Saying ... most wealthy, successful software company in the world is doomed to failure ...
      I don't read it that way, however, in business studies attempts to merge companies with differing cultures can devastate the acquiring company. Moreover, the business being fast paced can doom the pursuer to a more distant relative standing than the sum of the two companies' starting market shares. Take one of the examples you cited: HotMail, how long did it take MS to get that right? The danger is they may not have the time to get it right.

      I really doubt that MS will disappear due to this or other missteps, but that does not mean the probabilities are nil to none.
    • by msgmonkey (599753) on Sunday February 03 2008, @10:23AM (#22282180)
      From what I can remember the aquisitions though have always been for technology they don't already own or do own but inferior. If it goes through they get Yahoo market share, but if they tinker with Yahoo too much most likely people will leave Yahoo since if they wanted to use Microsoft Search they would do. Market share is all well and good, but even with their combined market share they would still be a long way behind Google and Yahoo has nothing that I can see that could be classed as a "Killer App". If the sale does go ahead what is going to happen? Are they going to call it Microsoft Yahoo and have the run side by side with their current offerings? Also Yahoo is also a failing company with no direction, they even brought back an original founder to get things moving again but it has n't made any difference. Personally it does n't make any sense to me, but maybe I will be proved wrong time will tell.
    • by jonbryce (703250) on Sunday February 03 2008, @10:25AM (#22282198) Homepage
      But Microsoft usually buys really small companies with good products where they can use their marketing skills to build up market share. Yahoo is a bit different to their usual takeover target.
    • by nguy (1207026) on Sunday February 03 2008, @02:30PM (#22284068)
      it worked when Microsoft bought Hotmail

      Is Microsoft making money off Hotmail? Is Hotmail inducing anybody to buy Windows or Office? If not, it was a waste of money. And I don't think it is: Microsoft lost $77m on MSN in 2006.

      Saying that the most wealthy, successful software company in the world is doomed to failure for going against silicon valley reasoning is futile when that's what they've always done and made more than anyone else while doing.

      Microsoft is making money with their near monopoly: Office and Windows. Anything else is negligible or a money loser.

      http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/dayart/20041022/MicrosoftResults.gif [nwsource.com]

      http://www.newrowley.com/images/blog/2006/msft_profits606.jpg [newrowley.com]

      It's a joke really. Nothing the company is doing is working. Even Xbox only has high revenue because it's subsidized so heavily and the company is bleeding money on it.
  • by Mr. Underbridge (666784) on Sunday February 03 2008, @08:38AM (#22281652)

    Sure, Silicon Valley VC folks love startups, because they get a piece of the action. Heck, they were happy as pigs in shit around 1998, despite the fact that about 1% of those startups had any hope of seeing a profit. But it doesn't mean that MS+Yahoo is destined to lose, simply because they're not the chic pick anymore.

    None of that has any bearing on whether MS+Yahoo can beat Google or any of the hordes of little companies coming from Silicon Valley.

    • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

      by Anonymous Coward
      Indeed. The Silicon Valley VC philosophy seems to be:
      1. Invest in 10 startups while they are cheap.
      2. Push them grow as fast as possible.
      3. One in ten of the startups make it, and the rest implode from capital and personnel bloat.
      4. Cash out of the one successful startup for 20x the initial investment.
      5. Go back to step 1.

      Certainly, this is a money-making strategy for the VC. It's not necessarily good for the 9 failed businesses, some of whom might have been profitable if they had taken a more conserva

      • by Mr. Underbridge (666784) on Sunday February 03 2008, @12:21PM (#22283000)
        Hell, you're being kind to them. Silicon Valley's preferred method is to fork it right around step 2 and go to a step 2.5 - hype the shit out of the company and hold an IPO before the company collapses, pushing losses onto hapless investors who thought they could get rich quick.
  • by downix (84795) on Sunday February 03 2008, @08:47AM (#22281696) Homepage
    Microsoft has only $17 billion in cash and easily liquidatable shares (almost all MSFT stock). A $44.6 billion bid requires them to "print money" ie Shares. This deal is absolutely horrid for any responsible stock analysist or stockholder for either company. WHat Microsoft is basically offering is to produce new shares, diluting ownership for all involved, which when paired with the rapid selloff upon deal conclusion, will drive the price of the stock downward even moreso than it has been since (It still hasn't recovered from the recession of '01). Add in that their operating cash is mostly stocks which would be driven down by this, you're looking at the potential for a bite more than they can chew.
    • It's only dilutive if Yahoo! is worth less than $45 Billion. The drop in the stock price is an indicator that some people think so(especially short term).

      They currently have ~$1 billion a month in cash coming in, so even if it is a complete failure, they will have paid for it in a year or three.
                • Re: (Score:3, Informative)

                  Well no, it can't be sustained, but there isn't any intention to sustain it, it was a one time thing to move that money off of their balance sheet.

                  Anyway, here is a page listing all the dividends Microsoft has paid to shareholders:

                  http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=MSFT&a=02&b=13&c=1986&d=01&e=3&f=2008&g=v [yahoo.com]

                  There are about 9 billion shares outstanding, and there has been the entire time they have been paying dividends, so we can calculate that they have given ~$40 billion dollars to s
  • More criticism... (Score:5, Informative)

    by Anonymous Coward on Sunday February 03 2008, @08:48AM (#22281704)
    Many investors aren't happy.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=email_en&sid=am1odVZXMwjk [bloomberg.com]
  • I was inconvenienced enough when I had to switch from Hotmail to Yahoo mail. Yahoo has been my primary spam account (meaning I used to to register an email for all the websites I visited, but I still occasionally scan through emails there) for years now...

    It was really convenient with fetchyahoo.pl ... Yahoo's spam filters (which were pretty good compared to most of the other services I've tried) would have a first pass at it before my computer ran an additional pass. I'm guessing that functionality won't
    • same here

      You have 13017 unread messages: Inbox(7395), Bulk(5622)
    • Worried about your email adresses? Why not buy a domain and then forward it to whatever is the latests adress with filter you use at that moment?

      That way people see your adress, but you grab it from anywhere you desire, without the roblems of setting up your own filters.

      If 10USD a year (or less) is not worth it, it is not worth moaning over.

      You then have about a year to move over the websites you find. The ones you do not catchm you will not have used anyway and you can set up a new account.
  • by 140Mandak262Jamuna (970587) on Sunday February 03 2008, @09:06AM (#22281780) Journal
    The techies and engineers might respect the startups, the innovators and the one who finds the next big thing, But almost all the startups dream of being acquired by the big boys. In fact for the people with the money, the sugar daddies and the venture capitalists, being acquired is really the business plan.

    Vut that is true for the small startups. For a company that used to be a big boy itself, may be it is not a very "respectable" thing. But respect is probably over rated anyway.

  • by G4from128k (686170) on Sunday February 03 2008, @09:12AM (#22281810)
    Cisco is Silicon Valley's poster child for acquired innovation -- acquiring over 100 companies in the last 10 years (see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cisco_Systems_acquisitions [wikipedia.org]). Letting someone else's VCs pay for your R&D is a great way to always have the best of the best technology. And don't most of the Valley's VCs and "brain-power" cater to this growth-by-acquisition model. Isn't the exit strategy of a VC or serial entrepreneur defined by getting a Cisco, Google, or Microsoft to by the company?
  • by ScrewMaster (602015) on Sunday February 03 2008, @09:18AM (#22281840)
    Steve Ballmer must be looking at this from Lewis Black's perspective:

    We need to build a big fuckin' thing. I don't care what it is, so long as it's big ... and it's a fuckin' thing!
  • This would have been bigger news 5 years ago. You get the impression that Microsoft is so big and fat that by the time it gets it's fat bulk moving to the kitchen it's roommate has eaten all the ho-hos?

  • by postbigbang (761081) on Sunday February 03 2008, @10:00AM (#22282052)
    Lots of users. Lots of places to hang signs and ads. Lots of groups. Lots of apps. Lots of little businesses.

    Yahoo is a country with lots of geography. That's what Microsoft is buying.

    It's not a new widget. It's not Web 2.0. It's not some sort of way-kewl social site with a new innovative bent.

    It's the real estate. One more time: Microsoft is buying web real estate, not bottom feeding, not buying rotten tech.
  • by astrashe (7452) on Sunday February 03 2008, @10:09AM (#22282108) Journal
    MS looses to Google because their management makes bad choices. At least their choices are bad when compared to Google's.

    MS's management will continue to make bad choices. If they had enough money to buy Google itself, and if anti-trust concerns weren't a factor, it wouldn't matter. They would break Google and push it into the ground. They problem isn't their strategic position. The problem is in between their ears.

    Look at Hotmail and Gmail. Hotmail was a very early web email service. MS bought them. Then they just let it sit there. MS people saw Oddpost coming down the road, and they should have gotten all pumped up with what was possible. That's apparently what happened at Google -- someone saw that fancy Oddpost ajax email client, and said, let's do this better than Oddpost is doing it.

    MS doesn't try to do much until someone pokes them with a stick, and a lot of times they don't do much even then. Right now the world is screaming at them about all of the things wrong with Vista, and their response is -- no, you are all STUPID, and we are right, and you just don't get how awesome Vista is.

    They're not fixing anything.

    They're the victims of their own monopoly. They're fat and stupid and lazy, and they think the world owes them success. They're insanely profitable, but it's because they're in the catbird seat, and not because they're earning it. They don't have to earn it, and because they don't feel the heat, they can't earn it.

    So you know, sit back in your lavish headquarters, and reminisce about how great it was to go out and threaten to cut off people's air supplies, and how wonderful the world was when you could bully people effectively.

    I feel bad for yahoo. I remember when it was just some page on a guy's workstation at stanford. They did a lot of great things. They don't deserve this ignominious fate.

    And there are stories floating around that yahoo people are saying -- there's no way in hell that we'll work for MS. So, MS, know that everyone dislikes you. And know that it's a direct consequence of your deliberately cultivated culture of bullying and thuggery.

    Everyone at yahoo knows that when you buy that company, you're going to break it, and that going to work on a day to day basis is going to suck. And believe it or not, that has a lot to do with why you will not beat google.

    Someday google will suck too. Their culture will rot, and dumb people will climb on top of the smart people. But that day is a long way off.

    So you know, go off and think about how to make sure my monitor will prevent me from playing unauthorized videos, or how to make my computer's audio system check up on the license status of my music. Because I'm your customer, and believe me, that's what I'm really pining away for. That's what I want more than anything. You know me so well it's scary sometimes.

    • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

      Look at Hotmail and Gmail. Hotmail was a very early web email service. MS bought them. Then they just let it sit there. MS people saw Oddpost coming down the road, and they should have gotten all pumped up with what was possible. That's apparently what happened at Google -- someone saw that fancy Oddpost ajax email client, and said, let's do this better than Oddpost is doing it.

      Yeah. And the result is that Hotmail has considerably more users than Gmail.

      And there are stories floating around

  • by fishthegeek (943099) on Sunday February 03 2008, @11:34AM (#22282678) Journal
    Take one company that isn't being successful at competing with Google.
    Add to that, one more company that isn't successful at competing with Google.

    What you end up with is one much larger company that isn't able to compete with Google.

    I find it truly inconceivable that someone thinks this is a good idea for either company. If Yahoo were truly on the bleeding edge I could actually buy this proposal but Yahoo has been in catch up mode itself. The only thing I believe that this does for MS is provide a much larger market share for Google to take from them.
    • Re:Could it be .... (Score:5, Interesting)

      by irtza (893217) on Sunday February 03 2008, @11:05AM (#22282452) Homepage
      I doubt this will impact the economy much. Granted that if this deal goes ahead, many redundant jobs may be cut, but in the end I think that market forces would have forced further contraction in either Microsoft's own web initiatives or on yahoo's causing these people to be removed from there job anyways - look at the layoffs at yahoo that have already occurred. Despite my distaste for MS, this would probably be beneficial to the US economy. The real question is if there is still enough name recognition and resources within yahoo to merit such a move.

      Unfortunately for MS, the real threat to Google will most likely be from another startup kind of like what this article is getting at. What I find intersting is that if the patent system actually worked, one of the early search engines such as web crawler or alta vista would still control the market and companies such as Google and MS would have had to bow out secondary to valid patents. - and this would allow these companies in theory to grow their technology - plus they could use the patent clout to recruit the appropriate talent (in theory).

      In the end the thing that will hurt the US economy the most is globalization and the realization that intelligence and the ability to "create" isn't as valuable as it may seem. It can be converted to a commodity along with almost everything else.

      If soft engineers in this country want protection, they will most likely need a union and a licensing exam like lawyers and doctors
      • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

        If MS gets rid of a bunch of the Yahoo employees like some people are suggesting, Google will likely start throwing job offers their way.

        From what I can tell, some of their FOSS developers may already be getting offers from Google, since the new Yahoo will likely be at the best unrewarding for those developers.

        Which brings me to a question...what happens to Zimbra? Which is now a Yahoo product and a major competitor to Exchange...