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Economic Crisis Will Eliminate Open Source
Posted by
CmdrTaco
on Wed Oct 22, 2008 09:53 AM
from the why-so-gloomy dept.
from the why-so-gloomy dept.
An anonymous reader writes "The economic crisis will ultimately eliminate open source projects and the 'Web 2.0 free economy,' says Andrew Keen, author of The Cult of the Amateur. Along with the economic downturn and record job loss, he says, we will see the elimination of projects including Wikipedia, CNN's iReport, and much of the blogosphere. Instead of users offering their services 'for free,' he says, we're about to see a 'sharp cultural shift in our attitude toward the economic value of our labor' and a rise of online media businesses that reward their contributors with cash. Companies that will survive, he says, include Hulu, iTunes, and Mahalo. 'The hungry and cold unemployed masses aren't going to continue giving away their intellectual labor on the Internet in the speculative hope that they might get some "back end" revenue,' says Keen."
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Linux: Red Hat CEO Says Economic Crisis Favors Open Source 191 comments
arashtamere writes "Red Hat president and CEO Jim Whitehurst predicts the enterprise open source software business will emerge from the economic crisis stronger than the proprietary market. 'I've had a couple of conversations with CIOs who said, "We're a Microsoft shop and we don't use any open source whatsoever, but we're already getting pressure to reduce our operating costs and we need you to help put together a plan for us to... use open source to reduce our costs." And we've had other customers literally looking at ripping and replacing WebLogic or WebSphere for JBoss ... I think we'll know in about six to nine months but there is no question that open source will come out of this in relatively better shape than our proprietary competitors,' he told Computerworld."
Submission: Economic Crisis Will Eliminate Open Source by Anonymous Coward
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Yeah right. (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Yeah right. (Score:5, Insightful)
Advertising + Blogs = continuance of our current model.
He just doesn't get that some people do things not for the money.
Parent
some choice quotes from Benkler (Score:5, Insightful)
"For all of us, there comes a time on any given day, week, and month,every year and in different degrees over our lifetimes, when we choose to act in some way that is oriented toward fulfilling our social and
psychological needs, not our market-exchangeable needs. It is that part of our lives and our motivational structure that social production taps, and on which it thrives. There is nothing mysterious about this. It is evident to any of us who rush home to our family or to a restaurant or bar with friends at the end of a workday, rather than staying on for another hour of overtime or to increase our billable hours; or at least
regret it when we cannot." --Benkler, _Wealth of Networks_
"Human beings are, and always have been, diversely motivated beings. We act instrumentally, but also noninstrumentally. We act for material gain, but also for psychological well-being and gratification, and for social connectedness. There is nothing new or earth-shattering about this, except perhaps to some economists. " -- Benkler, _Wealth of Networks_
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Re:Yeah right. (Score:5, Funny)
Isn't it great how he posts this analysis on a site that gives it away for free?
It's a good thing, too. I was just about install Linux on my laptop. Whew! Now that I know that Linux and other bits of Open Source software can't weather an economic downturn like private companies, I'm switching to BeOS.
Ass.
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Re:Yeah right. (Score:5, Informative)
Wasn't it just the other day that Red Hat announced they were feeling just fine and dandy in this economic crisis, as many companies are looking to lower their expenses by going open source?
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Re:Yeah right. (Score:5, Funny)
No, that never happened, and you must now report to the Ministry of Corporate Truth to correct your obvious insanity.
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Re:Yeah right. (Score:5, Interesting)
>>>He just doesn't get that some people do things not for the money.
On the other hand, it's difficult to "do things" like update OpenOffice, if your electric company just pulled the plug, or you lose your house to the bank. If the next decade becomes a Depression-Lite economy, then there will be a lot fewer engineers with the ability to update software. They'll be busy just trying to survive, with little spare time or cash to continue their open-source "hobby".
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Re:Yeah right. (Score:5, Insightful)
No. I'm assuming they ARE employed, and about to get laid-off due to the recession. Therefore they might not be able to pay their bills, and their priority will be survival, not opensource programming.
Parent
Re:Yeah right. (Score:5, Insightful)
I don't think that's the main thing wrong with his reasoning. Fact is, a lot of the hard work in OSS is paid for. Most of it is not done for free.
The main thing wrong with his reasoning is that in rough economic times, companies are going to be looking for a better value. OSS is a better value. Even if you have to pay for developers to get what you need, that's a one time cost and you get to keep the source code.
Another point worth making is that if unemployment goes up, that just means there's a lot more developers out there with free time, and motivation to put something new on their resumes.
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Re:Yeah right. (Score:5, Funny)
Some men are women.:)
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Re:Yeah right. (Score:5, Funny)
Some men can't be bought, bullied, reasoned or negotiated with. Some men just want to watch the world burn.
Unless they're given
one...
million...
dollars!
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Re:Yeah right. (Score:5, Funny)
[ Google Ads: Great deals on Microsoft Debugger! ]
-bash-3.00$ _
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Re:Not Quite. (Score:5, Insightful)
Advertising + Blogs + advertisers_with_no_ethics = Flogs
http://adage.com/smallagency/post?article_id=113945 [adage.com]
e.g. "Sony and agency Zipatoni have come under fire for one of their marketing tactics for the Sony PSP. Sony has added its name to a growing list of flogs [fake blogs] including McDonald's, WalMart and Lonely Girl 15, that are being called out by consumers. This isn't the first time Sony has been caught and questioned about the ethics of its marketing practices."
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I think we should be able to (Score:5, Insightful)
Re: I think we should be able to (Score:5, Insightful)
Indeed, why are some people just completely unable to comprehend that not *everyone* is a greedy bastard?
Some people do things, like programming, you know, for fun! Contributing to OSS is not about "back-end revenue" for most people, it's about contributing to a community, about pride, and about intellectual challenges.
I feel sort of sad for him that *his* whole life seems to revolve around money.
Parent
Re: I think we should be able to (Score:5, Insightful)
And why can't people comprehend that folks write this stuff to sell books and make money? And why can't folks comprehend that Slashdot posts it in order to get page views and make money?
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Re: I think we should be able to (Score:5, Interesting)
Ok, you have a point. It's just that I hear this sort of thing all the time.
"Why would you do all that work and then give it away?"
For me, as soon as money enters the picture, the fun is (mostly) gone; with money comes responsibility, whoever is providing the money buys the right to demand answers and project deadlines. It's no longer "because I enjoy doing it", but "because he tells me to".
I think he either just doesn't understand this concept, or he ignores it, because frankly, it makes *him* completely irrelevant. It must be very frustrating, being an economist, and people suddenly start doing stuff that's not about money.
He conveniently forgets that a lot of people who contribute to OSS aren't professional programmers during working hours, he is completely ignorant to the fact that there are people who know how to write computer software *outside of the US* (gosh!).
Besides, WTF does Myspace have to do with OSS?
Parent
Re: I think we should be able to (Score:5, Insightful)
Your point about OSS is certainly valid, and while I certainly don't think Linux is going to die or anything like that, there will likely be a slow-down in development for certain pieces of software, and specific aspects of the software.
While there are many people who enjoy the fun and challenge of writing software, it's important that not all steps in the process are the same. The adage that the last 10% of the project is 90% of the work is somewhat true, in that making a really well polished product inevitably requires some grind work at the end. In the software world, that might manifest itself as bug squashing, or user testing, or interface tweaking, etc.
It's important work, but it's often time consuming, monotonous, and not fun, and it's hard to get people to volunteer to do it. That's a part of the OSS process that can really benefit by having paid labor to help make sure that it gets the attention it deserves (although there's no doubt that even proprietary companies often skip out on this part).
If the tech economy turns to crap and there are lots of newly unemployed programmers sitting around, I'd actually expect the amount of OSS activity to increase somewhat. All those geeks aren't going to turn off their computers and never code again. But the effort will go towards the sorts of things that are interesting, not towards the dull (but important) drudgery work. If companies stop paying their developers to work on OSS, there are certain types of work that will fall to the wayside.
Parent
Re: I think we should be able to (Score:5, Insightful)
I'm not saying I disagree, and in true /. spirit I only read the summary ... however it sounds like his whole point is that when people are having a hard time coming across basic necessities they stop caring about 'fun', 'community', 'pride' and 'intellectual challenges' and start caring about how to get food.
The real question is: is it going to get that bad ? Was the great depression even "that bad" or are the stories of stock traders jumping out of windows greatly exaggerated ?
Also, being someone who works in internet advertising and runs "free web-sites" that happen to feed my children it's pretty clear that he doesn't understand Internet economics. The Internet, like television, doesn't care about goods and services in exchange for currency (though I'm not saying that model isn't implemented online, just that there's other models that are more popular and work just as well, if not better). I guess next he's going to claim that television networks are going to stop free programming with commercials and instead switch to a strict pay-per-view model :rollseyes:
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Re: I think we should be able to (Score:5, Insightful)
Some people do things, like programming, you know, for fun! Contributing to OSS is not about "back-end revenue" for most people, it's about contributing to a community, about pride, and about intellectual challenges
I think his point is, that, in a recession, and suddenly, programmers aren't working any more with day jobs, that little blog that gets 50000 hits or that little pile of code they've built suddenly looks like it might be something to help , you know, make a mortgage payment with.
I mean, sure, if you are independently wealthy, go ahead and give your time away. But if you've got a family to feed and a house to pay for, you probably might want to have some money coming in.
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Re: I think we should be able to (Score:5, Interesting)
Are you the guy who modded my comment in the wikipedia story "flamebait"? Have you no sense of humor, or at least no sense of irony?
Yesterday was a story saying the economic downturn was a boon to open source, now another, equally misinformed dumbass says it will kill open source.
I think these guys are hilaruious, myself.
The reality is the economic downturn (call a spade a spade, we're going to have a depression) will probably do neither. Of the two stories, however, this one is the dumbest. But not by much.
Yesterday's mcgrew journal, Open Office Blues [slashdot.org], about a non-nerd and open source, illistrates perfectly why open source software has not taken the world by storm despite its superiority.
Parent
Re: I think we should be able to (Score:5, Funny)
I agree. I just read some of this tripe and I'd like to punch this guy right in his arrogant face.
What, for free? That's valuable labor!
Parent
Re: I think we should be able to (Score:5, Funny)
What, for free? That's valuable labor!
I'll count it as 1 hour of community service off of my sentence!
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Re: I think we should be able to (Score:5, Funny)
I will donate $25 to his punch fund.
Parent
Re: I think we should be able to (Score:5, Funny)
So, what's the economic case for sex? What market good does it do?
Child labor. Everything is done for economic value, so when I have kids they're going to run big hamster wheels in my basement to power the house. And when they get tired they can sit and make products that I'll sell over the internet.
Parent
Just like... (Score:5, Insightful)
The end of the dot-com bubble killed linux, stifled production of php sites, and made people stop sending non-commercial email. Those things all went away, right?
Re:Just like... (Score:5, Funny)
You should have SEEN what Linux and PHP were planning for the next release, right before the bubble burst. Let me just say two words: Flying Cars.
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Re:Just like... (Score:5, Funny)
BARMAN: Are you serious sir? I mean, do you really think the world's going to end this afternoon?
FORD PREFECT: Yes. In just over one minute-and-thirty-five seconds.
BARMAN: Well isn't there anything we can do?
FORD PREFECT: No, nothing.
BARMAN: Well I always thought we were meant to lie down and put a paper bag over our head or something.
FORD PREFECT: If you'd like, yes.
BARMAN: Well, will that help?
FORD PREFECT: No. Excuse me I've got to find my friend.
BARMAN: Very well then. Last orders please!
Parent
Re:Just like... (Score:5, Funny)
Parent
Re:Just like... (Score:5, Insightful)
The latest U.S. News & World Report appears to claim this recession is deeper than the post-dot-com recession.
And that would raise the demand for expensive, uncustomizable software how?
Parent
Re:Just like... (Score:5, Funny)
If you want page numbers, I can dig them up when I get home.
Wrong site, silly willy. On /. we mod, not dig.
Parent
Shakeout more likely (Score:5, Interesting)
All you may see is a shakeout of commercial Web 2.0 ventures that were going nowhere and were only being made a fuss of "because it's web 2.0". The same hype that drove the original dotcom bubble. A shakeout of dodgy commercial ventures, yes, Opensource on the other hand is likely to get stronger in this climate.
This is just wrong (Score:5, Insightful)
They aren't the people contributing. The guy is an 1d.10T
Money? (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Money? (Score:5, Interesting)
People used to do most things for free. See Money and the Criss of Civilization [realitysandwich.com]:
Parent
Red Hat begs to differ (Score:5, Informative)
Wait...I thought the Economic Crisis was GOOD for open source?
http://linux.slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=08/10/21/0116221 [slashdot.org]
Odd ... (Score:5, Funny)
Re:Odd ... (Score:5, Funny)
Parent
Re:Odd ... (Score:5, Insightful)
It seems we're getting dupes from a parallel SlashDot.
If that were true, this story would have a goatee.
Parent
*laughs* (Score:5, Insightful)
This guy is under the assumption everyone who works on open source technology is after financial gain. Very short sighted
Same wrong assumptions, different century (Score:5, Insightful)
This is nothing but a re-hash of Bill Gates' screed against the Homebrew Computer Club about how good software will never be created without paid programmers. It was wrong in then, and it's still wrong.
Suerly the opposite is true (Score:5, Insightful)
yeah right (Score:5, Insightful)
No, the hungry and cold unemployed IT guys will invest their time into open source projects, because it 's a good way to keep their curriculum in shape. And the hungry and cold unemployed will keep using linkedin and facebook to extend their network inorde to find a job. And ofcourse, businesses in difficulties will stop throwing money away for overrated software when they can get a free and open equivalent.
I think a crisis will definately have a positive impact on open source and web 2.0
My approach to such idiots is... (Score:5, Insightful)
LET THEM BE
Every time an idiot says something that is not going to affect you directly, let it be!
Trust me, do you really wanna do business with people who believe this?? Do you want to be an employee who believe these things?
But guess what, you're right and they're wrong!
If my employer has a stupid idea, I either recommend against (and they usually listen) or I quit or I shut up.
If my competitor has a stupid idea, I just say "GREAT!!! GO AHEAD!!"
Economic Down Turns always spawn innovation (Score:5, Insightful)
Most economic down turns spawn innovation. People no longer have nice cushy jobs soaking up their days. These people no longer have anything to lose (their job) by trying that great idea to build a better mouse trap. Some of them invent things really cool and successful.
Linux exists because Linus couldn't afford a real unix server, for example.
If the downturn turns into a depression, then no one will have money to pay anyone for services anyway. So the huddled masses will probably be bartering their services and still contribute to open source, because its the cheapest way for them to get the tools they need.
Take some money and buy a clue.
End of the Internet Predicted: News at 11 (Score:5, Interesting)
His whole premise is deeply flawed. People don't post stuff on these sites because they are so fat and happy that they just can't find anything better to do with their time. They do it because they want to be known for something, or they want to show off, or because they just want to contribute to a large project. None of these things are really affected by the economy.
Okay, some people might contribute less because they have to take 2 jobs or something, but that's a temporary phenomenon. For most people, their jobs will still occupy about 8 hours a day, and that still leaves several hours every day for farting around on the Internet, which often includes submitting content to these so-called "Open Source" content sites.
User-generated content was there at the beginning of the Web, and it isn't going anywhere anytime soon. Maybe CNN will toss the iReport thing, but not because of the economic downturn. Sure, they might decide that now is a good time to end it because they have a convenient excuse, but the real reason to end it is because it's a cesspool of mouth breathers posting pictures of their cats and saying the same kind of mindless garbage that gets posted to CNN's Political Ticker. The iReport site doesn't do much more than allow CNN to post stories that would be of no more than local interest otherwise (ooh, a car on fire! Alert the media!).
As for Wikipedia, it has deep and fundamental flaws that may or may not eventually lead to its downfall, but the economic condition isn't going to change that one way or the other.
A more likely target (Score:5, Insightful)
It'll be harder to argue for expensive new Oracle, SAP and similar licenses. Oh sure, that database that's just a large bit bucket will cost your business a few hundred thousand dollars to implement! Just lay off a worker or two to fit it into your budget.
Bullshit.
If anything, it'll be easier now to justify using OSS because the ridiculous cost of most enterprise software will become more apparent to the customers. I predict that if this continues, you'll see more companies forced to use OSS out of necessity simply because they cannot justify buying the extremely expensive licenses for proprietary software.
On a related note, Keen is one of those guys who laments the loss of our "high culture." The dude is a day late and a dollar short in his whole analysis. Western high culture started taking a nose dive 100 years ago with the rise of political populism. If anything will help to bring it back, it'll be putting better, cheaper tools into the hands of content producers so that they can do more work with less effort.
after reading this guy's book.... (Score:5, Insightful)
I can say for sure that he doesn't "get it". While he does make several good points about the advantages of payed work, it seems that he is ignorant about the advantages of free contribution, and the way OSS uses a blend paid and unpaid work to advance projects.
He also doesn't seem to understand that the large companies that are supporting OSS are not doing it out of the goodness of their hearts, they are doing it to try to disrupt other businesses.
In short, the man is not a troll, but he has no idea what he is talking about. Move along.
Re:On the contrary... (Score:5, Informative)
Most large businesses are just as dumb as government organisations - you just don't get to hear about most of it.
Parent
Re:Holy hell (Score:5, Funny)
But check out Wikipedia:
Let's face it -- he's no amateur on this score. The guy knows something about failed Internet based industry, as he's founded at least two, and worked at four or five more.
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