Ask Robert X. Cringely

Mr. Cringely is one of the computer industry pundits quoted most frequently here on Slashdot. His weekly column appears Fridays on the PBS Web site, and almost every week's edition is submitted to Slashdot multiple times. Cringely has been involved with personal computers almost as long as they've been around -- he was one of Apple's first employees -- so in this field he's certainly a "pundit's pundit" who comes by his opinions through knowledge. Please take a look at this bio page on his site, then post your questions below. We'll forward about 10 of the highest-moderated ones to him by e-mail over the weekend and post the answers as soon as we receive them.

Re:3rd post

[quickquack]

Even when you DO get the first post, the title is wrong. Kinda dissapointing I gotta say...ROFL

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does andy grove habe an intel watch

[johnjones]

my question is does andrew grove (head of intel) have an Intel watch ?

and what do you actualy do ?
(apart from write a 500 word essay each week(I know thats hard but that doesnt take up a whole week))

regards

john


(a deltic so please dont moan about spelling but the content)

Geek stereotyping?

[11223]

From looking at your bio (and realizing who you were) it would seem that you play upon popular culture's impression of us computer geeks. For instance, use the oft-stated myth that nerds "can't get a date", but in a recent article about system administrators it was revealed that quite a few (from anectdotal evidence) are married. Do you feel that it's really accurate/justified to portray the innovators of the computer world as social misfits, or is it just a stereotype that's sometimes true and sometimes not?

Dotcoms

[wrenling]

Being in and around Silicon Valley, and also having seen so much change over the face of the computing industry in the last 20 years, what mistakes do you see that are causing so many dotcoms to fail? What steps could they take/could have taken to prevent this from happening? Conversely, what do you think seperates the ones that have made it from the ones that are floating belly up?

Competitive Practices

[rockwall]

Do you feel that the computer industry is less innovative today than when you started out? More specifically, do you feel anticompetitive practices by certain companies actively restricts new technologies, or are these current titans just one great idea away from becoming also-rans?

Sessions at West 54th St.

[Byteme]

Why is David Byrne no longer the host of this great PBS show?

Sessions at West 54th St. [sessionsatwest54th.com]

I miss him.

Thanks.

Initial Thoughts

[Ravenscall]

Apparently, you were one of the initial employees at Apple. What were your thoughts at the time on what you were doing, where it was going, and did you have any inkling whatsoever that the PC revolution would become what it has today?

Early Apple

[rockwall]

I'm not sure how well I'm going to be able to phrase this, but during the early days at Apple, did you at all foresee the lasting effect the company would have on computing? Is there anything you would have liked to see the company do differently (less emphasis on hardware, different technologies encouraged, etc.)?

Commercialisation of the net

[Dan Hayes]

What do you think that the increasing commercialisation of the net is going to lead to? In particular do you think that the work the various standards bodies do is becoming increasingly ignored when it comes to what actually gets used on the net?

Most Influential

[quickquack]

Since you've long been in the computer/technology industry, what would you say attributed to the biggest change (a good or bad change) in that industry?

The WWW? The Internet? Cheap PCs? E-commerce?

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Mistakes by Today's Companies

[rockwall]

What is the most serious, and common, mistake that today's computer companies tend to make? The action can either be detrimental to the company or the industry at-large (or, preferably, both).

Missed Opportunities

[maggard]

From your privilaged position what technologies do you think should-have-made-it but didn't? What technologies do you think were ahead-of-their time but might resurface? Finally, what companies that suprised you by not making a go of it when they seemed like sure-things?

Basically - where do you think things zigged when they shoulda zagged?

Tell us about the early days

[anticypher]

The early days are shrouded in confusion, myth, lies, half-truths, and blazing egos. For years nothing was very clear about the origins of RXC.

We'd like to know about the early days when R.X. Cringeley was used as a pseudonym for a gaggle of writers. Were you involved with the 'nym from the beginning, or did you join later? Who else wrote parts of those articles? Where did the source material come from? Any fun anecdotes?

Could you tell us about the early days without putting the 'nym spin on the facts? I would love to hear a single side to this story once and for all, and I consider you to be the only one who can give us the truth.

the AC

"Team" column at InfoWorld?

[DeHar]

The story goes that the Robery X. Cringely column written for InfoWorld was part of a collaboration of several writers and pundits, pooling information about the IT sector.

If true, how many folks were involved, and what makes you feel that the Robert X. Cringely name is one available for your exclusive use?

That certain "jenny-say-crock"...

[rho]

Love your column, love "Accidental Empires" -- now that the fanboy part is over:

Why do the rich and powerful among the Digital Illuminati talk to you? What do you think is it about you that Bill G himself will discuss, if not his secret plans for domination, at least his thoughts about the computing community?

Whatever it is, I hope it doesn't go away!

Projections

[Docrates]

And now the mandatory question:

You being someone that "was there" to witness the evolution of computers to what they are today, what are you thoughts on where we'll be 5, 10 and 20 years from now? will PC's go away? will voice recognition and handwritting recognition stick? will virtual reality ever make it? 3d web? wireless web? etc...

Airplanes & Computers

[Croaker]

So, at first I didn't realize you were the wacko^h^h^h^h^h host of "plane crazy." Given your insights into both planes and computers, how do you think we'll be able to compare the changes that computers are and will make in society in the next 50 to 75 years to the changes brought about by airplanes in the similar period in the past? Do you think it's siginifcant that both the PC and the airplane were sort of "garage startups"?

Microsoft

[ViceClown]

What do you see as the biggest threat to Microsoft in the future. IE someone that could to to Microsoft what Napster has been doing to the record industry? Love the column, keep up the good work.
- Vice

Re:(OT: Sig) was Re:3rd post

[quickquack]

I'm actually developing my own apache module, mod_caffeine. Simply visit http://localhost/caffeine-level and set the kilograms of caffeine to simulate.

A rating of 60kg is too high. At 60kg the server will speed up slightly, but return normal requests with "408 YOU SUCK" and "409 CLEANER" error codes.

I set my apache server on 30kg, personally.

Hope this helped. E-mail me for more mod_caffeine info and to get some source code.

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The obvious...

[AntiPasto]

What do you think about MP3, copyright, and the publicity of internet-only issues to the mainstream media?

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What I would really like to know

[Golias]

Does the new CEO of HP look as hot in person as she does in that "garage" commercial?

Most underrated?

[Otter]

Who/what do you think are the three individuals / companies / technologies whose importance has been most overlooked?

Your column on Homer Sarasohn [pbs.org] prompted this question.

Has not having a PhD affected your work?

[Anonymous Coward]

Back in 1998 you falsely claimed that you had a PhD and was a professor of journalism at Stanford. Of course the truth came out. How has the truth [stanford.org] affected you and your work. Have you suffered any consequences by your lie? And why did you lie in the first place?

PS. To moderators, asking controversial questions is NOT trolling, but good journalism! Ask Nixon!

How will software be sold?

[bfree]

In your discussions with the various entities of the computing industry, how do you expect to see software distributed in 5-10 years time? Should we expect to see a greater take-up of free speach || open source || free beer || restrictive licensing on the low and high level (drivers and word processors), low and high end (MS Paint and Adobe Photoshop) software? Do the current players believe that they should all be looking log-term into securing their positions through licensing agreements or that they should be selling a service? In particular have you heard any noises of hardware companies who are looking into OpenSourcing all their drivers (i.e. Windows) so as to achieve the maximum penetration of their products?

It has to be asked

[Hard_Code]

So what do you think of this whole little "open source" thing?

gender and technology

[techmuse]

Robert, In a study that was announced a day or two ago, it was shown that the number of women who are pursuing degrees in computer science related fields is dropping substantially. I'm wondering what you think can be done to improve the appeal of careers in computer science to women, and how the domination of the field by males affects the cultures and product directions of the companies in the field.

Steve Jobs

[cprincipe]

Is he really a power-hungry megalomaniac or a misunderstood dreamer?

What does the X. stand for

[fence]

Robert, please tell us what the X in Robert X. Cringely stands for!

---
Interested in the Colorado Lottery?

Read his column this week...

[slothbait]

He actually answers this very question in his article this week.

http://www.pbs.org/cringely/pu lpit/pulpit20000727.html [pbs.org]

The answer is no. To quote:

It was six bucks an hour...Who knew they would be successful? I sure didn't.

Then again, you might argue that one can have a lasting effect without enjoying "success", but I will leave that debate to the Amiga enthusiasts...

I've been following this column for a while. Cringely is an interesting guy, and he has certainly been around the industry. Though periodically his essays strike me as a bit ego-centric, he also can also provide some amazing insight. He really can draw together seperate pieces of tech news in a meaningful fashion.

Also, he's been around long enough that he can pull out interesting industry anecdotes. My favorite was his description of Def Con 1. You know: back when it really was a hacker (pardon: "cracker") convention. Very interesting reading.

In summary, I highly recommend this guys column...

--Lenny

Microsoft Windows Monopoly

[Cygnus v1]

Do you think that Microsoft's Windows monopoly (at least as it pertains to pre-loaded copies of Windows on new PC's) has enabled the boom of tech publishers like ZD, CMP, and C|Net?
If so, do you think it is positive?
Do you think that your programs, books, and columns are similarly buoyed by this fact?

PBS already has a Cringely Q&A

[Anonymous Coward]

here. Interesting reading. Let's try not to have this interview be a complete duplication. [pbs.org]

Lashing out?

[FascDot Killed My Pr]

(I don't read your column as often as I'd like, but when I do, I love it. R of the Ns was great.)

You are one of the few columnists out there who seems to have a clue. And I'm not saying that just because you like Linux--everything I've heard from you radiates insight (even when it's wrong). You also work for PBS, who, I assume, can't afford to pay the big bucks. Do you ever find yourself starting articles intended to spank the well-paid idiots *couch*jesseberst*cough* who spout off in commercial fora? Have you ever published any of these articles?
--
Give us our karma back! Punish Karma Whores through meta-mod!

Re:Better use of computers

[linuxonceleron]

Are you a troll or is this seriously how you think? I've really been wondering, as the last post I saw of yours was obviously trying to bother people. Look, I mean you end your post with "Thank You" If you really aren't a troll, then please try to keep from looking like one. There's room for everyone's oppinion on slashdot, but starting arguments isn't what this is for.

What does Crypto taste like?

[Grech]

In your recent articles on the Carnivore system, you expressed concern that these 'black boxes' may be intended to act as kill switches for the ISPs they are attached to. What (content-wise) do you think would provoke this 'kill' response? Also, do you think that non-content information (protocol choice, encryption, &c) figures into the Carnivore equation?

Anecdotes

[neuronaut]

I just finished reading Accidental Empires, and quite liked it. One of the things I really enjoyed were the anecdotes about industry leaders, like Bill Gates trying(and failing) to talk with black guys on a street corner. Do you have any new ones that you'd like to share?

What does the "X" stand for??

[Spudley]

Please - what does the "X" stand for??
I've been insatiably curious about that since the first article of yours that I read.

Hrmmm

[Anonymous Coward]

According to this [blancmange.net] article:

The host of the three-hour documentary, "Triumph of the Nerds," is really Mark C. Stephens, one of several authors of a popular gossip column in InfoWorld magazine written under the Cringely pseudonym. Mr. Stephens, 43 years old, penned the column between 1987 and last December, when InfoWorld cut him loose. But in a case with enough twists to give anybody an identity crisis, the magazine and its parent, International Data Group Inc., sued Mr. Stephens in March for trademark infringement to block his continued use of the Cringely name.

So, Robert, are you still Mr. Stephens, or are you someone else now?

Re:What does the X. stand for

[Stavr0]

http://www.pbs.org/nerds/qa1.html [pbs.org]

After viewing your program I can truley say that it was "insanely great"! As a dedicated Mac user who must occasionally serve time on a DOS machine slogging Windows95, I especially enjoyed the opportunity to learn more about Steve Jobs. However, all the computer stuff aside, I really only have two questions:
1. Is that incredibly cool '66 T-bird convertible yours?
2. What middle name could possibly begin with the letter "X"? Thank you for producing such an outstanding program...I'll certainly read the book at my earliest convenience!
Jon Holland
Mesquite, Texas

RXC> Yes, the '66 T-Bird is mine. It's a rare Q-code model with the 428 cubic inch V-8. 1966 was the only year they offered a 428 in the convertible and fewer than 600 were made. Mine has every option except the 8-track.
X stands for Xavier, my mother's maiden name.
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Alternative OSs.

[Spudley]

I remember waaay back, when I first started reading your column, there were a number of times when you gave quite favorable mentions to various 'alternative' systems (eg Amiga).
What are your hopes for the re-emergence of a multiple-platform world? Do you view Linux, Amiga, BeOS, and others with hope?

Crystal Ball and History Lesson

[Kommet]

This question has two related parts.

Based on what you've seen in the last 20+ years, what are the most important leaps foreward so far (in your humble opinion) besides the GUI and the microprocessor (too obvious)?

Looking ahead 5, 10, 20+ years, what still needs to happen to make computers more useful, powerful, widely accepted, affordable, whatever?

I guess I'm hoping for a little insight into the past (I was only born the year the Apple II was released) and some thoughts, not on where we're going, but on where we should be going.

Age

[Zlotnick]

One thing that has remained constant over the last century is change. Every few decades, we got bored of the theme of the previous generation, and based a new theme on a new technology (i.e., Jet Age -> Space Age -> Information Age). As we seem to be at the height (or maybe even on the downslope) of the Information Age, do you have any prognostications on what's next?

Re:What I would really like to know

[technos]

Yes, Carly Fiorina is really that hot in person. Mabye hotter.

Software and Computers

[Darkstorm]

I'm a developer and I am curious as to how you think the software will change in the future.

I know from looking at many contracted software packages that quality is something usually forgotten in the windows world. Badly written hard to use and usually very buggy. Do you feel at some point that companies will finally stand up for themselves and demand good software?

As for hardware, with the standars being modified so quickly will we end up back at a propriatary level again? I ask because of the splitting between amd and intel on the type of interface on the motherboard for the processor (not to mention the memory style variations happening) Will programmers end up writing towards a propriatary box/cpu do you think?

Tim Hayes

Who are the Pundits' Pundit's Pundits?

[Anonymous Coward]

In my ongoing struggle to keep abreast of technology news, I regularly read your column, along with Slashdot, Good Morning Silicon Valley, and a few other sources. What, if anything, do you read to keep up with what's going on?

Dude!

[jafac]

Hey, were you at all interviewed for the recent book about Steve Jobs? Is this book really as inaccurate as they're saying?

And my final, most important question;
Tell us about your Porsche!

if it ain't broke, then fix it 'till it is!

Re:Better use of computers

[j_d]

As far as anyone can tell, AntiPorn's the real deal. Stile had a big flame fest about him a while ago, and a lot of IRC logs back up his... zealous nature.

he is, of course, wrong when he says things like "homosexuality is against nature" but it's nice to see him rant so. I think there was some kind of abuse early on, by a gay uncle or something...

Gnutella

[blameless]

Who stands the best chance of making money form distributed filesharing technologies like Gnutella?

What sort of revenue model do you expect to succeed?

What steps do you expect RIAA, MPAA, & others will take to try to stop it?

Will they resort to guerrilla tactics to try to dismantle the system?

Who will sue them when they do it?

Pilot Advice

[Tayknight]

Moderators, please read the bio before you mod this question. Bob is a pilot who tried to build a plane in 30 days. His show was on PBS, same and Triumph

What advice would give someone wanting to get his pilot's license? Is it worth the time? Is it worth the money?

The man who invented the mouse

[w00ly_mammoth]

He invented the mouse and GUI. [cnet.com] In Triumph of the Nerds, mention is made of xerox parc, but Engelbart doesn't get credited for singlehandedly inventing much of what we use today - the mouse, hypertext help and linking, groupware, video conferencing, display editing, etc.

Cringely's documentary is considered such a classic (I taped it and told people to watch the show every time it was broadcast), and could have for once given Engelbart credit for changing computer technology.

Scroll thru and check out his inventions. [bootstrap.org] Today, he lives in silicon valley and is unreconized by the millionaires who live off his achievements. Logitech has granted him some research space for inventing the mouse (yes, that thing). But nobody else seems to know of him.

Even though the documentary delved in such depth, why did it fail to include the man who made it all possible?

Even today, few people have heard of him, and it's such a tragedy.

w/m

Re:Open Crime Source

[cbwsdot]

Who are you?

Journalistic Integrity

[jafac]

oh, I found I do have an intelligent question to ask afterall;

As a journalist, you probably have something to say about this topic.
Assuming you're aware of this recent spat between nVidia and some of the hardware-review sites on the internet, what is your take on this issue?

Should companies be held ethically responsible (I'm not saying lawsuits and fines here - I'm talking court of public opinion) for "strongarm tactics" in selecting journalists to bestow prerelease hardware upon?
Or do you think that the journalist who reviews a product should avoid conflicts of interest?

What do you think is the impact of this rather standard industry practice, and how do you think this practice could be eliminated?

if it ain't broke, then fix it 'till it is!

Re:Geek stereotyping?

[cybercuzco]

I believe Scott Adams sums up the answer to this question the best: Women want success. In the old days, when we were living in caves with 400 baud modems, The men that could best provide for women were big strapping bruets with huge bulging muscles who could club a wooly mamoth and drag it back to the cave with their bare hands. This was the measure of success. Then things got more advanced ant the 14400 bps modem was released, and the geeks did rejoyce for it was good. But women didnt care all that much, because by this time success was measured in the amount of flashy cars you had or the size of your junk bond portfolio. Buesnessmen and middle managers were rock solid kings of success. Now comes the T1 lines of the 21st century, and the measure of success is the number of lines of code you can write on a single shot of espresso. So women are increasingly attracted to the success of the lowly geeks who have millions of dollars in their stock portfolios.

PBS Budget

[Money__]

When budgeting your PBS pay check, how do you decide between buying bread or water?
___

Ethics of the computer industry

[CEHT]

Seldom there is people talking about the ethics of computer industry. Do you have any thoughts about this issue? Or any comments on the ethic issues of M$, Napster, GPL, crackers, ...?

Ethics UBC Canada [ethics.ubc.ca]

Re:Dotcoms

[nickmdf]

>>conversely, what do you think seperates the ones >>that have made it from the ones that are >>floating belly up?

I dunno, pehaps a business model that include
some kind of f**king chance for a profit in the third mellenium?

Re:Has not having a PhD affected your work?

[craw]

We had a /. discussion [slashdot.org] a long time ago about the missing PhD. Hmmm, that link only brings up one comment, apparently the first one. And you can easily guess what that comment says.:) The story was posted by Sengan. Now that's a name you don't hear now.

Anyway, the general consensus, IIRC, was that it is difficult to trust a journalist who lies. So your question is extremely important.

More than one Cringely?

[webmaven]

Your bio references the fact that "Through a cruel twist of fate having to do with federal judges and unscrupulous lawyers there is, for the moment, more than one Robert X. Cringely."

Can you tell us how you happened to get your 'Nom de Plume" hijacked?
--

Re:Software and Computers

[SheckyShebang]

What do you see in the crystal ball about programming languages down the road, specifically related to web programming... for example, do we need a replacement for the popular web programming langs (java, perl, etc), that is more efficient especially in terms of development time? why can't programmers work together to develop a few languages that have features lots of people want- automatic cross-platform compatibility, human readability, high-level components and libraries, a meshing of procedural elements that make ui intuitive and higher-level functional-style elements that make underlying structures elegant, short, and quick to code (maybe people in general don't want that last one, but i do)- instead of coming up with many different languages to address specific preferences and needs? instead of having to learn seven languages to develop nice web applications, could the community come up with one or two that would do the same thing? props for staying on pbs, the least mind-numbing network out there.

Re:What I would really like to know

[klund]

Does the new CEO of HP look as hot in person as she does in that "garage" commercial?

What I would really like to know is doesn't the new CEO of HP know what Hewlett and Packard made in that garage? (They made oscillators, the HP 300, to be exact, based on Hewlett's Stanford Master's thesis. Neatest little lightbulb trick for the amplitude stabilization, if you're a circuit geek.)

When she talks about "going back to the garage", does that mean that HP is going to start making test and measurement equipment again (which they were very good at), and stop trying to be "Dell Also" (which they suck at)?

There goes my karma.
--

Re:Hrmmm

[Daoine Sidh]

Good point. I remember reading about this guy stealing the RXC moniker a while back when it happened. InfoWorld published a lot of words when it first happened and I was astonished to see Stephens continue to use the name.

To me, he's lost any credibility he might have had as you don't know which words are his and which articles belong to another writer.

Re:Geek stereotyping?

[circuskid]

Where did you get a 400 baud modem?! Mine was a wimpy 300 compared to that!

Why the psuedonym?

[DarthBobo]

Subject says it all.

Build an Airplane in 30 Days

[ripcrd]

After I saw Triumph of the Nerds on tape I saw you do a documentary on building an airplane in 30 days. While we both know you could have done it in 30 days if you picked a simple plan that has been tested by thousands of homebuilders before yourself, you picked to design the plane also. Number one: are you nuts? Building a fiberglass plane on your first one is insane. But seriously, why didn't you start out with a professional plane builder to assist you and a safe, tested design for the plane?

The rise, fall, and semi-resurrection of Apple.

[Lord Kano]

Do you think that the dominance of Wintel over Apple was due to technological superiority or because of Steve Jobs's ego getting in the way of good business decisions?

LK

Xavier

[Stavr0]

Please - what does the "X" stand for??
I've been insatiably curious about that since the first article of yours that I read.
---

Do you keep in touch with Pammy?

[kelzer]

She was sooooo hot! I was really disappointed when you two split up - like so many others I'd been living vicariously through you. Do you know if she's seeing anybody?

Re:Geek stereotyping?

[Anonymous Coward]

On the other hand, many of us find lots of "geek" guys much more appealing than, say, your average frat boy. I've found that they're much more thoughtful and insightful, and less likely to take you for granted. Sure, lots of women go for power and money, and quite frankly they have what they want. But please don't always attribute such shameless thoughtlessness and materialism to the rest of us.

Re:Has not having a PhD affected your work?

[11223]

Actually it's sort of the other way around. Trolls thrive through poking people about contraversial issues; however, in this instance it doesn't appear contraversial so much as a question that really needs answering.

Re:Geek stereotyping?

[Earl Forophor]

Do you feel that it's really accurate/justified to portray Australia as populated by crackers, or is it just a stereotype that's sometimes true and sometimes not?

Re:Geek stereotyping?

[Pathwalker]

Ha - I had a 450!

Actually, it handled 150, 300, and 450 - quite impressive for the time, as Compuserve charged the same rate for 300 and 450.
--
Email address is real.

Re:Software and Computers

[Darkstorm]

While I eagerly await Kylix, I still know that instant cross platform compatability will not be an option. It will be easier, but not instant. I think until all the programmers come to a like thinking will there be only one language, and since the chances of that happening are too low to even concider...I wouldn't hold my breath. Good idea but I don't see it happening myself. As new companies are trying to invent something new that comes closer to making web programming easier and more usefull they don't always concider modifing what exsists just making somehting new. Java was at least C based to a degree. The almighty dollar tends to help create more diversity, and at the rate things are going it doesn't appear to be getting any better.

I want Further information

[FatSean]

Where did this article come from? I'm teaching myself classical Latin and found it very interesting.

1996 PBS Interview with Cringely

[Cy Guy]

It seems a lot of the questions so far could be answered by reading a 1996 PBS interview [pbs.org] with Cringely on the PBS website [pbs.org].

For example, there are several people who want to know what the X stands for. His answer from the 1996 interview was: "X stands for Xavier, my mother's maiden name."


Help [206.253.208.199]

Re:What I would really like to know

[ethereal]

When she talks about "going back to the garage", does that mean that HP is going to start making test and measurement equipment again (which they were very good at), and stop trying to be "Dell Also" (which they suck at)?

Yes and no. IIRC, they spun off test and measurement as "Agilent", so that they wouldn't get dragged to the bottom when the rest of HP sinks (if I were in a bitter mood, I'd say "pulled below by the boiler explosion that is HP-UX", but I'm not. Oh wait, I am. Was that out loud?). Anyway, the answer to your question is: Buy Agilent, sell HP. Except for their calculators, which I still like.

Re:Geek stereotyping?

[cybercuzco]

My point is that women genrally chose men that give them security, whether that be emotional or physical or financial. As times change, men arent really needed to provide physical security, and with the advent of womens rights there is less of a need for financial security, therefore women now look for emotional security, as in your case, and your desire to not be taken for granted etc. in the past women have been willing to trade off emotional security for other forms, but today is different, and geeks can provide emotional security so womeen are attracted to them.

Pseudonms, Writers, and Tales From Beyond

[jd]

You're not the first technical writer to operate under a pseudonym. A glance at Wireless World will show a plethora of pseudonyms (such as "Free Grid"). A (somewhat controversial) author for "New Scientist" operated under the name of Ariadne, and the infamous "Hacker's Handbook" which was released in the 80's in the UK had an alleged author of "Hugo Cornwall".

But what does this anonymity buy you, really? Especially one that's not obviously a handle, and where your sources (and therefore your source's competition) know who you are.

Some writers use handles because what they write is simply too hot to be open. Some use handles to attract the attention of people who wouldn't otherwise be interested. But this isn't the case, here. The articles are balanced, fairly free of pointless bias, interesting in their own right and very well-done.

So, WHY?

Given prior history, who do you think will win

[WillAffleck]

Given that we've had umpteen OS wars, like unto the crusades in both their bloodiness and the invective used, can you discern any patterns in what determines the survivors of such conflicts?

For example, is it really the games that determines the winner, the "killer app", the ease of use, the cost, the marketing, or is it the media attention. If it is one of these, what are the most important elements, IYO, in determining the winner.

And, given the /. bias, what would you change in how Linux and BSD is progressing to maximize its survivability. Or is this all 20th Century thinking, and is the OS truly becoming irrelevant?

Reading material and other

[kanaka]

I consider myself somewhat of a computer industry prognosticator. If I were to sum up how I am able to predict and analyze the industry I would say that it is 1) being wide read and 2) knowing people who are in the know. I think you would agree (if not, then my question is "why not?").

So my question is: what do you recommend as the best reading material (books, periodicals, etc)? And how much time do you spend everyday reading them?

Do you read online news sites? If so which ones and how much?

And the question that is probably least important but the most interesting to this community is:

Do you read slashdot? If not, why not? If so, do you do it for value, or for entertainment?

Thanks

Predictions

[Akilesh Rajan]

You've claimed several times in your columns that you are skilled at understanding trends in the computer industry.

So paint a picture of roughly where you think the computer/Internet industries will have moved in 5 years and how that will change the end user experience.

Who will be the dominant companies? Microsoft? Amazon? Ebay? (I know you already think Cisco will be one of them.)

Will network computers have succeeded? Will voice recognition be big? Will interactive TV turn us all into corporate drones? Give us your 5-year forecast.

Re:"Team" column at InfoWorld?

[AJWM]

Actually Robert X Cringley still is a team. The "person" you've seen on the PBS shows and such is actually a clever digital construct.

The Internet & the Level Playing Field

[Akilesh Rajan]

When all is said and done, to what extent does the Internet now and will the Internet in the future continue to give little players a chance to compete with the big guys?

Specifically, do you think it's still *realistic* to take a good idea for a web service from the garage into the big leagues without $3 million in venture capital to start with, as some analysts seem to say is required?

Re:What I would really like to know

[British]

I dunno. She's 44 and she doesn't look that good in the pictures I've scoured for. I'd rather go out with the Helen Hunt look-alike operator in the MicroWarehouse ads.

Fizzling bombshells

[bmarklein]

In reading your column, I notice that you often make spectacular predictions based on a bit of inside news that you have. I've also noticed that in many (perhaps most) cases these predictions fizzle. A couple of examples (from my somewhat fuzzy memory):

• A story about how the Microsoft trial was going to be ended by a patent on active content in web pages (or something like that) that was granted to some obscure company.
• A story about Motorola continuing to clone Macs without MacOS, but instead using the Mac emulator from ARDI.

If I had time to look through your archives I know I could find many more examples. The pattern seems to be that you drop a bombshell, then you say "when this blows up and the rest of the press catches on, remember that you read it here first!", and the next week when nothing has happened you move onto the next bombshell. My question: what's up with that?

I hope this question doesn't sound too confrontational. I enjoy reading your column, I've just learned to treat it as entertainment rather than information.

New Technologies

[kanaka]

In the computer industry, there seems to be rare moments when true innovation actually happens. The rest just seems to be a continual evolution and building upon old innovation (which is a good argument for strong limitations on computer tech. patents, but that's a different question).

Examples of innovation (in my opinion), were the mouse, windowing GUI, transistor, Integrated Circuit, ethernet, TCP/IP, hypertext markup(way before HTML), data compression, C, multi-user OS, etc. Okay, so in reality those were all evolutionary too, but there are certain developments that have a qualitative difference rather than a quantitative one. I'm thinking paradigm shift or inflection point.

My opinion is that many of the current "hype innovations" today are really just evolutionary and not that significant qualitatively: wireless computing, software hosting, Storage Area Networks, Clustering, Java, etc.

Which recent developments do you see as having the most lasting qualitative impact?

Back to the Dark Ages?

[andyturk]

The internet is at a point now where individuals have more power than governments do (as far as the content of the web is concerned).

Witness Napster, CARNIVORE, and the French goverment trying to tell Yahoo what to do. Centralized authority is losing its grip on its ability to enforce policy.

How do you think this will turn out? Will we all end up being netizens in flowing white robes, or will we have to pay protection money to the "mob.net" to keep bandits and theives out of our Network Neighborhood?

Changing times..

[dagoalieman]

As you have seen the industry change and evolve over the past years, what new things came about that you honestly didn't expect (ie the popularity of Linux, or the savageness of online commerce)? And in the same thought, what turns did you believe technology and computers would take that they haven't? And of course, what future innovations (not in the m$ terms) do you forsee appearing in our lives?

MacOS X for the Masses?

[jjohn]

I've seen the screenshots of Aqua and I read a lot of articles about the BSD kernel with a pretty face. How exactly will Apple sell Unix boxen to Apple users who, for the most part, seemed to be afraid of typing? Is Steve Jobs trying to get the Unix hacks to buy Apple computers for the server market? Isn't MacOS X going to the standard Apple OS for consumer machines as well? If one makes a Unix box easy enough to use for Grandma, does one sacrifice the inherent flexibility of the system?

A new book?

[Markus Peter]

When will we finally see a new book from you ?

Most Amazing Person you've met

[Flounder]

During your travels for your tv shows, books and columnist writings, you've had the opportunity to meet quite a number of people that created the industry. Out of everybody that you have had the opportunity to meet, who had the biggest effect on you?

Re:You need Cringely to answer this ???

[dillon_rinker]

Whaddaya mean "no viable business plan?" I think "Get venture capitalists to give us tons of money and then give ourselves six figure incomes and maybe (1 inna million chance) we'll get rich and certainly we'll get invaluable experience" is pretty viable.

Timeline-Development of Artificial Consciousness?

[cybrpnk]

Your weekly deadline keeps you focused on now, but the full impact of the digital revolution you have covered from the beginning will not manifest itself fully for decades or centuries. What is the Cringley Long View of Things? How long til the microprocessors design their own next generation and we humans no longer understand how they work? How long til they become self aware like HAL 9000 ? What will they do for/to humans? Will "they" be silicon, photonic, quantum, DNA based? Who / what is on the critical path today that will lead to this tomorrow?

Re:Has not having a PhD affected your work?

[Black Parrot]

> It sounds to me like a case of misunderstanding more than anything else. His claim (which I have no reason to doubt) is that he was following what he believed to be an accepted, or at least common practice and on the second issue mistook the meaning of a job title.

For anyone who has ever been in a graduate program, as he was, it is absolutely impossible not to know the difference between a Ph.D. and a graduate student, or between a professor and a teaching assistant.

Adding that he felt that he had done the work necessary to earn his doctorate, Cringely said he hopes to eventually return to Stanford.

Unfortunately for him, the doctorate is not a self-certification program. His weaseling excuses are the lamest sort of self-justification for being a liar.

Now the question is, with all the RXC pseudonyms and committees going around, is this guy the liar, or just someone stuck with the same pseudonym? And why didn't PBS find a new pseudonym after this one was sullied?

--

Re:Has not having a PhD affected your work?

[Black Parrot]

I fear you missed the point of my post.

Whether or not you value the Ph.D. has nothing to do with it; we could just as well be talking about a choirboy pretending to be a priest. I don't have any particularly high regard for priesthood, but I still know that a choirboy pretending to be a priest, and pretending not to know the difference when someone catches him out at it, is the most despicable sort of liar.

Actually, Slashdot readers who have not been in an academic environment may be excused for thinking that there is some sort of continuum from "student" to "professor", and that 98% progress is almost as good as being there. Right or wrong, it does not work that way. "PhD Student", "PhD Candidate", and "PhD" are quantum states, and "almost" is synonymous with "not". This is neither horseshoes nor handgrenades.

In his excuses for lying, RXC was counting on the fact that most people do not know how these things work. But the notion that he did not know them is ludicrous. Even undergraduates know the difference between a "professor's assistant" and an "Assistant Professor", and they regularly complain about paying full tuition for classes taught by the one and not the other.

I simply cannot buy any claim that a guy was smart enough to be accepted into the CS graduate program at Stanford, hang in there long enough to get his Masters degree, hang in there three more years working on a PhD, and still be unaware that he was progressing along a series of milestones that represented changes in quantum state rather than movement along a continuum. The fact the he cited completing his coursework and passing his oral exams tells anyone who has been there that he knew darn well what the state change between "PhD student" and "PhD candidate" is. He was just counting on the fact that the general public hasn't been there, and that he could obfuscate the issue well enough that most of the public would not spot him for the liar that he was.

But I've gone and spilled the beans, so now that part of the public that reads Slashdot can evaluate his excuses for lying on their merits. That was the point of my post. Mr. Cringely, if you are the same pseudo-Bob who did the lying and made the lame excuses, would you like to add another layer of excuses to cover for the lameness of your first layer? Or are you <Clinton>finally ready to fess up, since you can't weasel out of it anymore</Clinton>?

ps - Like TheCarp, I wonder how he would be received if he asked Stanford to let him go back and finish his degree. Actually, I think the chances of a dropout being re-admitted to a graduate program are extremely slim even without having broadly disseminated a misrepresentation of his status with the university. Still, it's an interesting question as to how Stanford feels about it, and whether it would keep him out if nothing else did.

--

Storing History

[dondelelcaro]

Thanks to an AC's post [slashdot.org] about the pre-nerds faq [pbs.org], I have negated a couple of my more pressing questions, but anyway, to get on with the questions.

I know that you feel that maintaining a valid history of events in the technology world is an important goal of your life. (Or at least I was lead to believe this by most of your work, save Plane Crazy). You mention some of the raw information that you have recieved in your newest [pbs.org] pulpit article. However, you don't include links, or information on how to receive access to these historical records.

Do you have any plans to make available the raw materials you have received, either on the web, or in libraries, for scholarship, both by historians of today and tomorrow?

I understand that your shows do a reasonable job of attempting to digest this information for popular consumption, but there are always going to be people who are interested in the actual documentation of this history. Especially, when you mention a rare account of the beginnings of AOL, (Only 12 copies made!) but there seems to be no place where this information is being archived, or being made publicly available. I mean, even your own private machine collection is extreemly interesting. I'm lucky enough to have access to some of these ancient machines at a computer store near my university, but now, it's becomming more and more difficult to get access to them.

Don Armstrong -".naidnE elttiL etah I"

Re:What I would really like to know

[technos]

Trust me, she's damn cute, even with the laugh lines. She worked for AT&T/Lucent's upper management staff when I was a tech at AT&T Capital. Met her a couple times..

Re:Has not having a PhD affected your work?

[gargle]

It sounds to me like a case of misunderstanding more than anything else. His claim (which I have no reason to doubt) is that he was following what he believed to be an accepted, or at least common practice and on the second issue mistook the meaning of a job title.

That's complete rubbish. You don't have a Phd until you have a Phd, and Cringley knows this. It's standard practice for Phd candidates to serve as teaching assistants. Being a TA is a long way from being a Stanford professor, which is a formal appointment within the university.

Re:Englebart is overrated

[w00ly_mammoth]

Englebart's grand vision was a little too grand to actually implement using the technology of the time, so he never shipped anything useful.

He was a researcher, not a software or hardware manufacturer. Dude, it was a small team that did amazing stuff and lost its funding.

As for other people doing better stuff outside SRI, can you give some details when you make such claims? It's acknowledged by patent records and archives that they were the first in this field. You can't ignore better work going on outside when there isn't any. The big demo w/ mouse+GUI was done in Dec. 1968. It was funded by univ. and govt. money, and suffered the disadvantage of being too good for its time. The grant money was yanked coz nobody felt this was of any use (remember, at that time the big thing was spending $$$ on AI, since the holy grail was a thinking, talking computer. Making personal computers useful was considered pointless).

he was better at self-promotion and grandious claims than at inventing anything concrete.

Quite the reverse. He was so bad at promoting his stuff he lost funding. As for inventing something concrete - mouse, GUI, video conferencing, groupware. These are substantiated by historical records and experts in the field. What more do you want? Magic fairies?

It's really funny how people dismiss Woz, Engelbart, etc. as overrated for not doing anything recently, or not being more successful. Shipping mediocre products successfully isn't as important as groundbreaking innovation.

Here, look at the evidence. [stanford.edu]

w/m

Twins separated at birth?

[Crixus]

Is there any chance that you and Steve Thomas, the host of the PBS show THIS OLD HOUSE are actually twins who were separated at birth?

The resemblance is uncanny, and you both do PBS.

Rich...

Open Source as a viable daily working platform

[Conspire]

I would be very interested to hear your comments on how future open source "productivity suites" will or will not be able to compete with MS Office dominance of this sector. In particular, do you think that Sun open-sourcing the Star Office suite could actually pose a threat to Microsoft's Office cash cow, and will the "office.net" and "superbrowser" that MS is currently working on make the Star Office and other office platform open-source efforts obsolete? And, do you think that the "subcribtion" model for software "renting" via the net will be a viable business model, or would the introduction of this business model by MS and others actually catapult GPL'd software use into the mainstream, therefore MS would insane to actually try implement it and expect success?

Your wise words on this subject would be greatly appreciated.

Internet and and Ideology/Politics

[Agamemnon]

Will the influence of the Internet create a new political ideology, and will that ideology be similar to Libertarianism? Libertariansim's free-market, "Don't Tread on Me", philosophy seems to go hand in hand with the beliefs of many SlashDot users. On the other hand, there was at least a moderate level of Internet support for the DOJ in DOJ vs MS, a sentiment certainly not shared by most Libertarians. How might the Internet impact the philosophies and, by extension, the politics of the next generation? I'm primarily interested in the way the Internet will impact the philosophy and beliefs of the average user, rather than it's impact upon politics although, of course, one will certainly impact the other.