AdAge Predicts Tivo will Fail 463
geddes writes "Under the obnoxious headline
More U.S. Homes have Outhouses then TiVos, Advertising Age has published an article with a few good points: 1) Tivo/ReplayTV/UltimateTV aren't making any money and their growth is declining. 2) Cable and Satellite TV services are slowly rolling out PVR on thier own boxes. So 3) PVR will become a standard feature for most television users but become as unbranded as programmable VCRs."
Brand recognition (Score:5, Interesting)
But people will still call them "Tivo"s.
It's like in the UK, every vacumn cleaner is usually referred to as a "hoover". Or in the US "Xerox".
You cannot buy that brand recognition. Assuming Tivo themselves don't screw up, they will have a healthy share of the PVR industry for a decade or more.
Except.. (Score:4, Interesting)
Ooh...but I like the list of related articles:
"Without advertising, we will damage this country"
"72.3% of Tivo viewers skip commercials"
Then again, this is like MSFT reporting that Linux is pretty much dead.
I considered buying a TiVo (Score:2, Interesting)
Comparing outhouses to Tivo? (Score:3, Interesting)
Of course it will fail (Score:2, Interesting)
I would much rather get it from my cable company for $10 extra a month and no upfront costs. Even if the features aren't as good as TiVos.
Re:Brand recognition (Score:2, Interesting)
In these days of recession people tend to start looking a bit more closely at what they are paying for. Brand name or not, if it is not good people will not buy it.
Re:Brand recognition (Score:1, Interesting)
Amusingly, the companies concerned actually spent time and money in the courts attempting to stop people from doing exactly that. In the UK satirical magazine Private Eye, you frequently see letters from solicitors complaining about the magazines use of the word Biro whenever they don't capitalize the B. They usual print the letter under the title `What a way to earn a living`!
Re:TiVo's problem (Score:3, Interesting)
On the other, Tivo does have a problem with explaining how it works. It's a lot more than saying "it's a really good VCR!". That's where
the existing user base comes in, as it's a lot easier to show someone how it works and what it does than listen to the PFY at BestBuy practically reading off the sales sheet and not know anything more about it.
DirecTivo has been re-branded "DirecTV PVR" (Score:5, Interesting)
I have a DirecTivo, and love it. I couldn't imagine life without it. Recently, I got a letter from DirecTV that from now on, my DirecTivo service was going to be referred to as "DirecTV PVR" and the monthly charge was going to be cut in half.
OK. The service hasn't changed. It's still Tivo software and interface. The monthly cost is half of what it was. The only down side is it records more "Special Preview" nonsense from DirecTV. Tivo still gets paid, and DirecTV has more reason to sell this great technology. What's the problem supposed to be?
Re:Control (Score:5, Interesting)
And therein is the biggest problem in the media industry: content providers are too lazy to adapt to changes in technology, so they fight innovation to maintain the status quo.
Record companies and file sharing. Cable companies and PVRs. Et cetera.
I own a PVR (not a TiVO, but a higher-end satellite receiver with PVR built-in). It's fan-frickin-tastic. My VCR has been collecting dust for the last year and a half.
And yes, I skip msot commercials. But why do I skip them? 'Cause most of them suck.
There are commercials, however, that I do watch. And often rewind and watch again. And call my wife over to watch with me. These are the funny, intelligent, clever or bizarre commercials. Like the IKEA lamp. Like one for Tourette's syndrome. . Like the Mini and Nissan ones (just 'cause those songs are infectious).
If companies just made better commericals, I don't think people would skip them as much. They skip them because they are boring
At some point (and we've probably reached it), advertizing becomes so ubiquitous that it stops working. People tune it out. Advertisers think the solution is to put up more ads, in more places, in unexpected places. It's only going to piss people off more.
The solution is to make better ads. Why don't they realize this?
Licence (Score:4, Interesting)
Re:I agree (Score:4, Interesting)
Oh, and don't forget to package it in a nice little black (or silver) box that fits within my entertainment center.
We won't even get into DirecTiVo here. Mmm, Dolby Digital.
Re:DirecTivo has been re-branded "DirecTV PVR" (Score:2, Interesting)
The Tivo/DirectTV partnership means that Tivo should be around as long as DirecTV is. Not that that is a sure thing (hear about the near extortion by the NFL for next year's Direct Ticket licen$ing?), but I can't believe that Satellite TV won't exist even in today's pro-cable-monoply climate.
Furthermore, that "Special Preview" promotional stuff exists on a portion of your hard drive separate from your recorded programs so it doesn't "take up any space." So like you say, what's the problem?
Re:Of course it will fail (Score:3, Interesting)
As far as TiVo from your cable company goes, there are a number of such services available from companies like nCube, and don't expect them to sell for $10/mo, because storing everything at the headend means bandwidth limitations greatly restrict the number of people who can use this service, so it'll be expensive, and probably be billed at rates similar to impulse pay-per-view movies.
More likely is that more cable companies will follow the lead of DirecTV and AT&T, and create settop boxes that license TiVo's technology, so TiVo will prosper, even if they're selling less hardware direct to the consumer.
Where are the generic PVRs? (Score:3, Interesting)
Or is there something in the DVD agreement that prohibits this?
I own three TiVos (Score:2, Interesting)
I declined to buy lifetime subscriptions to their service since I didn't expect them to be around that long, and it was the lifetime of the individual TiVo box. There is a reason I have a TiVo that is just for parts.
Both of the working ones have web access, network cards, and two huge drives. I plan to add the 4 drive adapter in the near future.
It was a cool idea. But with several open source projects to build a PVR out of commodity parts, and the potential to tie several homebuilt ones together in a PVR cluster, I really don't see what TiVo has to offer to the people that are most likely to buy a TiVo. Especially since you can get TV guide information with any of the ATI TV tuner cards.
It is a shame that TiVo (the company) got to spend all of that money showing people what could be done, only to be trampled by all of the cable box and satellite decoder manufacturers running out to implement the "TiVo" idea.
Such is life.
Re:Just like cable decoders (Score:3, Interesting)
Of course, TiVO, being a small shit, is easier to target by the TV networks. How will the TV networks sue all the TV makers? That's like all the tire manufacturers suing all the car makers - chicken/egg thing again.
Bad shows on during YOUR viewing period you mean. (Score:3, Interesting)
Re:Some cable companies are rolling their own (Score:3, Interesting)
For better or for worse, the costs are being offset by revenue generated by targetted advertising (the SA8000 PVR stuff can do personalized ad insertion), and selling your viewing habits. If you'd prefer to pay $10/mo forever in order to receive targetted advertisements, that's your decision, though I tend to think that a one-time $250 payment is a much, much better deal.
Re:TiVo's problem (Score:2, Interesting)
I'm sure the money that TV networks get by restricting access to their listings is piddling at best. It would make much more sense for an EPG to be broadcast alongside each channel, then anyone could make tivos without the need for banks of modems and technicians to keep it all running.