Outsourcing As A Source Of U.S. Jobs 948
An anonymous reader writes "The Economic Times, India's leading financial newspaper, reports that Diana Farrell, Director, McKinsey Global Institute during her speech at Nasscom 2004 said that Bureau of Labour Statistics is predicting a job gain of 22m in the US by 2010, against a job loss of 2m, due to offshoring. You can read the full article here."
Some more statistics on the subject (Score:3, Interesting)
US unemployment right now is 5.6% [itfacts.biz], the lowest it had been in 2 years.
Silicon Valley will ad 17,000 jobs this year [itfacts.biz] and 33,000 next year.
in the long term (Score:3, Interesting)
of course in the long term, we'll all be dead.
Re:Some more statistics on the subject (Score:5, Interesting)
So in short (Score:2, Interesting)
So we are going to get more CEOs and less "lowly programmers"?
I'm Canadian btw, but we all know it's just another economically annexed state.
But what *kind* of jobs? (Score:5, Interesting)
I used to think the reality portrayed in Snow Crash was just current trends taken to some unreal extreme. Now as I watch the destruction of the middle class I'm not so sure.
China makes a lot of "American" goods (Score:3, Interesting)
I'd like to believe, but (Score:5, Interesting)
The largest percentage of the outsourced jobs are high-paying; perhaps we'll eliminate a single 80k job and replace it with 4 20k jobs? Or does somebody think that American business is going to hire local techies to architect products and the humble outsource labor forces will selflessly implement the design?
I have nothing against India or the programmers that are taking advantage of the avarice of American companies in order to better themselves. I would do the same thing in their shoes.
I do, however, blame an American business culture where todays stock prices have become more important than the ultimate survivability or long-term health of the company. After all, on a long enough timeline, everyone's surviveability is zero, eh?
Peaks and valleys (Score:3, Interesting)
I smell bull (Score:5, Interesting)
Re:But what *kind* of jobs? (Score:1, Interesting)
I am not sure I buy it, but I have (Score:5, Interesting)
We are going to see more jobs. If Bush gets his way, most of them are going to be in competition with 'undocumented' (Ahem..), I mean ILLEGAL workers. So, we all know those are not going to pay well. Lots of people are going to be devalued for sure.
Jobs that involve people skills are going to become more important. Somebody needs to manage the teams, make deals, and other things. I have been seeing another trend along these lines as well.
Working professionals are forming groups to cut overall costs. So far I see this happening with law, accounting, taxes and other similar traditional services, but maybe technically oriented groups have a chance doing this as well.
Having your own in-house technical people may be too expensive, but buying some quality time locally, sans language and distance issues might be worth a small price premium. Personally, I hope this is an area that Open Source can begin to play a little harder.
I can't help but wonder what effect the growing license fees companies, like Microsoft, ask each year have on the job market. There are a lot of dollars going to one place that used to go elsewhere.
With Open Source working as it should and some greater degree of acceptance, perhaps some of this money will be distributed more evenly. Companies could choose to keep minimal staff and pay high license fees for one size fits all software, or...
They can choose to employ some more staff and combine that with services from a number of competing firms to solve their problems. The greater number of potential solutions might yield competetive advantages as well depending on who is involved.
If this sort of thing begins to really happen, polishing up those people skills might be the way to go. Your technical background will be valuable for advising execs on critical decisions and evaluating potential partners.
I have been getting some experience doing this on the side for a little while now. Once the execs learn there is a cheaper way, they need people to facillitate getting it done for them. Being able to work hands on, in a pinch, helps as well. I sort of ended up doing this for a couple of people I met when I began networking a couple years ago. (fear drives a geek to do strange things, I know!)
Thinking along these lines seems better than a long job search in any case. So, here it is, for what it is worth.
Anyone doing anything similar? Have any luck? Suggestions? I just might need them soon!
maybe I'm missing something (Score:4, Interesting)
"Apart from huge savings, it allows US companies to concentrate on their core competencies and the people (in the US) can move on to higher paying, more creative, more value generating jobs."
What higher paying, more creative, more value generating jobs?
Re:Exportable Jobs (2nd try) (Score:4, Interesting)
Manufacturing jobs (but we already knew that).
And now thanks to the Internet, intellectual jobs, which would include (but is certainly not limited to) programmers, tech support, accountants, scientific research, financial research, and eventually, executive positions within companies.
The only jobs that won't eventually export are those which require a physical presence, such as police, fire fighters, doctors, auto mechanics, retail sales clerks, burger flippers, etc. (But I'm sure we can import some people for those jobs, or replace them with robotic telepresence... eventually.)
Actually, the only job in this country which is guaranteed not to be outsourced, is President of the United States. But I hear the pay is lousy and the hours are long.
Re:Poor wording (Score:3, Interesting)
Yep, that'd be me. I certainly don't see the whole picture when I've been harped at for years to "buy American" only to see the corporations buying foreign when it comes to labor. Go ahead and call it sour grapes but I'll be looking for creative ways to "offshore" my money in the form of purchasing products from overseas. Yes, I know. I'm probably just making the problem worse.
Re:Sauces, use thereof (Score:3, Interesting)
HP's Outsourced Support Quality (Score:3, Interesting)
My neighbor's HP Pavilion kept putting a window on her screen last week, saying her Windows license had expired, and that she needed to enter her credit card number and expiration to validate her copy of Windows, but not to worry because her credit card would not be charged.
My neighbor is in her 80s, but her memory is good and she didn't remember anything about an expiration date for Windows. So she called HP support and got a man with an Indian accent. She told him the problem, and he asked, "How old is your computer?" She told him it was a couple years old, and he said, "If it's that old, Windows could be expired. Try entering the information as requested and see what happens."
Fortunately, my neighbor is much smarter than HP's outsourced call center, and didn't take their advice. She called me and we cleaned mimail.s [symantec.com] off her computer. She promises she won't buy from HP again.
Re:in the long term (Score:5, Interesting)
It is not the phenominally poor in India who are benefitting from the export of high tech jobs it is India's upper and middle classes. India has a cast system and the people who are benefitting from this would rather drown than touch a rope that has previously been handled by one of Inda's phenominally poor low cast "Untouchables", unless of course the rope was ritually purified first.
It seems to me this has alot less to do with "fat Americans" and more to do with "short sighted greedy little American corporate executives" who are pissing away a highly trained workforce for short term gains and making a present of high technology to India which is only too happy to accept it since the technological exchange will eventually allow her to dispense with the Americans and compete with them.
Re:$22 million in jobs (Score:4, Interesting)
If they spend their money overseas, then it creates jobs in Italy or Taiwan, and the money is spent on video games made by Nintendo or Electronic Arts.
Which means these companies make a profit, which is good because otherwise your 401K would be empty and you wouldn't be able to afford to retire.
Re:22 million jobs (Score:5, Interesting)
Just to stay even with the number of new workers entering the workforce, the US needs to add 300,000 jobs per month. Multiply 300,000 by 12 months by 6 years (the difference between now and 2010) and you get 21.6 million, a number suspiciously close to the 22 million cited in the article. I'm guessing that the job creation number is based on horseshit.
Outsource McKinsey (Score:1, Interesting)
The rich, backwards (Score:2, Interesting)
A flat income distribution is an indication of economic stagnation. We just found a group trying to escape socialist flat-income Cuba paddling a '50s Buick because they have not produced any new products there since the revolution. The more important a product is to the middle and lower class, the higher the productivity is to produce these products, and the fewer jobs needed to produce them. The more rich people there are, the more new products are created and more people are required to design these new products. Almost all products available to the middle class were once products that were affordable only by the rich.
The wealthy don't need to spend all of their income. The excess is called capital. It is by investing this capital and labor (read: new jobs) that new products are created and our economy grows. This capital is the most important capital because it is the least risk-averse (no board of directors or bureaucracy controlling it) and is more likely to fund the most risky, innovative new products. Cutting tax rates increases the amount of this high-risk capital. Higher risk on average creates the highest expected rate of return. The lower tax rates on the higher expected profit and labor costs increases total tax revenue collected in the long run.
PS: How many programming jobs would there be in the USA if not for all the cheap imported memory needed to run our massively bloated code.
Re:Right... (Score:2, Interesting)
A Questioning Of CEO Logic (Score:3, Interesting)
Its not about the cash for them anymore. Its about points, being the top player in the game for the thrill of it, and staying in the game.
Given that it is about staying in the game, outsourcing jobs to India is irrational because it will ultimately put them out of the
Indian tech workers are smart, politically aware, and socially aware.
They will not be content with the American business colonialism of outsourcing.
They will use outsourced American jobs to build up funds and to learn how to run tech companies( or given our greedy, short sighted, overpaid American CEOs.....how NOT to run a tech company)
Once they do, they will form their own Indian owned tech companies.
Unlike the American tech companies paying Indian wages and selling their products at American prices these early Indian owned tech firms will sell their products at Indian prices.
They will either drive American Tech companies out of business or their competition will severly limit their profits.
In short, American CEO jobs will be outsourced to India in the end. They will be out of the game
Steve
Re:Tired of this offshoring whine on /. (Score:4, Interesting)
That is the Software perspective... The call-centre perspective is totally different. Call-centre people have to work all kinds of awful hours (8 pm to 6am) they have no social life and all kinds of health problems. On top of that, they have to deal with unruly, irate customers, among other things. Not a SINGLE person working in a call-centre here loves his/her job. They are just doing it for the Money. To make ends meet. Most people working in call-centres are people with reasonable college degrees but no scope of getting employment elsewhere. Everyone who works in a call-centre knows s/he will quit in a year and do something else with their life - the churn rate is VERY HIGH. Anyway - THAT is the Indian Perspective and the ground reality. Guys there's nothing constructive we can say to you - We are truly sorry that your jobs are being taken, but we didn't do the stealing - your CEOs did. I've been fired, I know what that's like.
And the truth is, many of us feel it is a good thing because it is putting more money in our pockets, and giving us a better life...but unlike you guys, we have no social security benefits if we lose our jobs.. I don't expect any pleasant replies to this, just giving a point of view from the land of Kama Sutra, Cow-Worshippers, Towel Heads, Sand-Niggers, Curry Munchers....
Re:Sauces, use thereof (Score:3, Interesting)
Re:in the long term (Score:3, Interesting)
Re:Sauces, use thereof (Score:4, Interesting)
Comrades, Don't Unite (Score:2, Interesting)
Re:Sauces, use thereof (Score:4, Interesting)
the economic times article is a fluff piece (Score:2, Interesting)
those claims. The claims are made
by people with no mention of the credentials
of the speaker(s). Why should I believe these
unsubstantiated claims by people who might
have no more informed opinion than the
dog catcher?
Re:Explain it to me.... (Score:3, Interesting)
This explanation in the article...to me looks like to make it in the global economy, you have to make your living off the stock market, and I'd dare say, that is a LOW percentage of US citzens.
Re: Investment Where? (Score:1, Interesting)
Look at MS, record profits, and 40BN in the bank. the bank is not investment, the money is doing nothing but sitting there.
Look at increasing corporate salaries, yeah they invest it, into their own pockets.
Look at investors, who get the dividends, they invest it back in the stock market mostly, which then gives the average CEO more money to pour back into his pockets.
Seeing a pattern here? It's called concentration of wealth. And it never ever leads to good things.
Re:Central planning falacy. All "jobs" not equal. (Score:3, Interesting)
We've been able to get by on just my income so she can raise our three kids... but it can be tough.
Not meant as a troll, just passing on one female's perspective.
Soft Landing (Score:2, Interesting)
While I agree that the shift is probably innevitable in the long run, steps can be taken to reduce the pain to those *currently* in the field. These include:
1. End the longer-term "tech" work visa programs immediately, and clamp down on shorter-term visas.
2. Limit offshoring in government contracts for at least 5 years.
3. Put into place laws that restrict sensative customer and medical information from being processed overseas.
4. Officially suggest to schools not to promote IT education.
On the one hand it seems many want to keep a strong "tech base" in this country for national security and "cutting edge" reasons, yet they don't want to pay for it. The gov subsidizes farmers. Are farmers a more strategic resource than tech workers? You can't have it both ways. You cannot force people to go into a dying field. They seek stability and money, both of which are rapidly dissappearing.
Re:Poor wording (Score:3, Interesting)
Economists have been wrong before, and have denied that before too.
Re:$22 million in jobs (Score:3, Interesting)
I recently hosted a Chinese exchange student for a week. We took him shopping so he could buy some gifts for his friends back home, and we couldn't find a damn thing he couldn't buy back in Shanghai - cheaper. Even at Wal Mart.
Re:Well look at that (Score:1, Interesting)
Now how crazy does that sound.
Grow up, my friend. National policies are not what you can decide sitting at home, there are shades of grey all over. Once you appreciate this better, come back, and we can listen to you.
India doesn't need aid anymore (Score:3, Interesting)
1: India gives developmental assistance (mostly to neighboring countries like Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal, and Bhutan).
2: It's a creditor [go.com] to the IMF [imf.org] (International Monetary Fund).
3: It's written off loans for some desparately poor countries (mostly in Africa).
4: Foreign Aid is a very small part of India's GDP, at least when compared to Israel and Egypt. It's symbolic for India more than anything else.
5: America _now_ accounts for an insignificant amount of India's foreign aid:
"The United States accounted for 8.6 percent of all of the aid India received from independence through FY 1988, but for only 0.7 percent in FY 1989 and 0.6 percent in FY 1990." source [allrefer.com]