Mobile Phone - Convergence Point For iPod, Others? 301
Nagen writes "DrunkenBlog has an intriguing essay arguing that the mobile phone is the primary convergence point for digital devices and will soon cause iPod sales to evaporate. Perhaps more interesting is the idea that the iPod is an expendable pawn in a larger battle of who will control the gateway of all legal content to the user."
One thing I promise you... (Score:3, Insightful)
Cell phone convergence (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:iPod haters (Score:4, Insightful)
Battery manufacturers rejoice!
"I'm sorry I missed your call, I either have my phone off or the battery has run down from picturetaking, musiclistening, notetaking, gameplaing und blinkenledwatchen. Please leave a message..."
Worst thing that can and will happen in the future to ruin your life? You lose your phone and if you had a password it was 1-2-3.
May I be the first to say: Duh! (Score:3, Insightful)
OK, I haven't RTFA, but anybody who thinks that the iPod will forever be a high profit margin device for Apple is insane. Sooner or later the iPod will either have to evolve into more than an MP3 player that does a few neat tricks, or Apple will have to find another revenue source.
What other revenue source? Well, how about the iTMS? The numbers I've heard suggest that Apple could make a profit (after paying the labels, credit card fees, bandwidth, etc) of 10c/track. They sold around 100million tracks in a little over a year, which might translate into $10M profit. Not a whole lot, Apple certainly makes more money off iPods now. But if you look to the future, the iPod functionality is likely to get integrated into cell phones. iPod profit margins will go down. However, by the time that becomes a reality (5 years, maybe), I would expect Apple to be selling between $1billion and $10billion in iTMS sales annually, with an annual profit of $100million to $1billion. Given that Apple has made a profit of ~$30million in the past year, that is an attractive source of revenue. Low margin, sure, but steady....and such low margins make it difficult for any competitor to gain a foothold. I think Apple was very savvy in negotiating such low margins.
This is stupid (Score:3, Insightful)
Second, I fucking HATE cell phones. I hate people that sit and talk on their phones at the gym while peddling away at 1 mph on the excersice bike like some pee in the cedar chips hamster thinking they are actually "getting a workout" all the while fucking up everyone elses concentration with their senseless chatter.
I had a cell phone for years, my bosses used to love abusing it, calling to find out where this or that was rather than just getting off their fat asses and looking for it themselves. I didn't use the stupid thing for half the things I thought I would. It's an impersonal and fake way of having relations with people. Just get together and have fun, don't sit and gossip like a giggly little girl on it.
My iPod makes me wanna get out and DO something, like ride through the county park down the street or go to the gym and bust my ass on a 4 mile run.
I'm obviously biased but I hate the cell phone lifestyle. It's fake, lazy and pointless. I see people crashing cars on their phones, ruining movies not paying attention while walking into me at the grocery store. I see people in lines chatting away on the phone and all the people around them giving them glares like they're irritating everyone around them. Like so many fads before, these little gadgets have turned the zombified idiots of our culture into the lemmings we all knew they could be.
The last thing I want is "convergence". I like being able to buy an iPod and JUST have it be an iPod. If I wanted a cell phone I would JUST want a cell phone. If I wanted a camera I would JUST buy a camera. Cell phones right now are nothing but bloated feature nightmares, most of which people do not use or care about. I don't need an mp3 player that comes with a 50$ a month cellphone bill plus text messaging at 15 cents a message.
Re:May I be the first to say: Duh! (Score:5, Insightful)
Convergence is overrated... (Score:5, Insightful)
1) Battery
2) Optics/Camera
Basicly, the electronics can scale down to nothing at all, it is simply that the rest can't. Though I suppose the future may be more "intelligent" power management. It is a dummy phone with low low consumption when you need it (not powering up the huge MP3 collection or decoder chip) and an entertainment center (for a short while) when you need it. It's all about what you can pack into a cell phone sized object. Maybe a "dock" extension to your phone to make it iPod-like?
Jack of all trades, master of none is not good. But I hope they can make a flexible "master of all, one at the time" pack.
Kjella
Re:This is stupid (Score:2, Insightful)
Convergence isn't all that good, really (Score:2, Insightful)
When I want music, I want it of reasonable sound quality. When I want a phone, I want a phone. I don't want to use the phrase "reboot my phone", and I'd really, really like one which works in the US, Europe and East Asia (i.e. multi-chip/multi-band). If the purpose of a phone it to be in touch with people, it should work worldwide.
I've not found a use for a pda, since I've got pen/paper and a laptop. I just don't need the information all that fast. Yeah, I'm not up to date and all that, but it's my money
Re:Differences between US, EU, Asia (Score:5, Insightful)
Heck, judging by the stories here it seems the iPod is more popular in the US than the mobile phone!
That's because you're on Slashdot, where people love Apple devices and often hate the yammering that comes with cell phones, not to mention their "yuppie" associations. If judging only by stories and comments here, an observer would be unable to understand why "American Idol" or "The Bachelor" is on prime time TV when everyone seems to love $CANCELLED_NERDY_SCI_FI_SHOW.
Mobile phone use is about the same in America as it is in Europe. The difference is mostly that people in Europe (I've heard) and in Asia (I've seen firsthand) often use their phones primarily for text messaging. Here in the US, most don't. I'm not sure why, my guess is that we're just too lazy to learn how to type on the telephone pad. :)
Mobile phone market penetration is high in the US, but the "gee-whiz" factor has definitely worn off among all but the hardcore. Most people are more interested what kind of a deal they can get on the minutes they use than whether their phone can play MP3s.
iPod to fade away? (Score:1, Insightful)
Look at the overall picture...
The iPod mini is about the size of your typical cell phone. Apple suddenly has interest in providing the iTunes store for Motorola phones...
They're testing waters... I think Apple will become a major player in cell phones in a few years
Wrong, wrong wrong! (Score:2, Insightful)
Re:It's true for me (Score:4, Insightful)
You're not really in the market Apple is going after, and neither will these phones until they can hold the massive amounts of tunes that the iPod can with a comparable interface. I think it'll be a little while before we see 20 gb phones. In the meantime the iPod will continue to sell because it excels at one thing.
I remember reading a similar article about camera phones hurting real digital camera sales.
Re:Cell phone convergence (Score:2, Insightful)
But for the average user, the cell phone could become their primary "communications" computer. You wouldn't write any major documents on that (that's what the "big iron" in your office is for), but it could provide other services that we have traditionally done on PCs that are "good enough". Email, IM, calendars, address books, media apps and voice. Sure you can do voice over your PC now, but the "average" PC user isn't up to speed on VOIP yet and it's not mobile. You make a "phone" that does all the above just "good enough" and people will flock to it. Even /.ers will get on board...as long as it can bluetooth and/or wifi connect to their servers and of course...as long as it runs Linux ;)
Re:One thing I promise you... (Score:4, Insightful)
Thats a bit extreme, but what they'll almost certainly try to do is charge you to download the song to your phone through them. Which is why if I ever (god forbid) buy a cell phone with a decent music player in it, I will REQUIRE that I be able to upload my own content to it with no extra cost (aside from perhaps an extra cable, although it should be firewire) and no control over the content given to the phone companies.
And if I ever pay for a downloaded song, I DEMAND that I be able to transfer it off the phone to my computer and other listening devices as well, with no degredation in quality from what I originally received, and with no restrictions on how I can use it (or at least extremely easy to circumvent ones ALA Fairplay).
Re:One thing I promise you... (Score:3, Insightful)
Inevitable? Only if you buy into it. Which I won't.
It's also called a radio... (Score:3, Insightful)
FAN-TAS-TIC!
Re:One thing I promise you... (Score:4, Insightful)
It'd be ridiculously simple for the phone mfr to give you a place to specify the
Re:iPod haters (Score:5, Insightful)
I always laugh when this comes up... a longer battery would be nice, but some folks complain about it on here as if Apple should be ashamed that their middle-aged nerd travelling customers (the same ones who predicted the iPod would be a POS noone would buy) don't think the battery life is adequate.
The funny thing is they don't realize they're not the market, even given all of the obvious evidence. And this is what is funny and makes me roll my eyes at every "OMG BATTERY LIFE" post. Longer battery life would be nice, but it's not the ridiculous issue detractors make it out to be.
Re:iPod haters (Score:4, Insightful)
Convergence is a definite (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:It's true for me (Score:4, Insightful)
And of course, the next generation of static RAM is just around the corner - where it has been for a while, admittedly.
Re:Differences between US, EU, Asia (Score:3, Insightful)
Most people likely dont see the need for having it. The only person i know who regularly text messaged me was doing it from the back of her classroom, and I supsect that's the major use in the US.
Yes, this is stupid (Score:5, Insightful)
But blaming cell phone usage into turning people into lazy slobs reeks of shortsightedness. Do you think when cars started becoming mainstream that people exploded into lazy blobs? Do you think people complained about the noise and the pollution? I'm sure it seemed like it at the time, especially when people took the car to go down to the store two blocks away.
And guess what? I've seen more abuses of iPod folks than cell phone folks lately, especially in urban Chicago where I live. People are constantly standing in front of el train exits and entrances, not letting people through because they are oblivious to the crush behind them. They do not answer when you call your friend from 50 feet away. I've seen so many instances of oblivious attitudes almost leading to car accidents while pedestrians with white headphones leasurely stroll into a DON'T WALK intersection. Does this prove that iPod users are lazy idiots? Of course not. It just means that people are dumb in general, and it's amplified when many people jump on a bandwagon (ie cell phones, and iPod usage).
And finally, while some of us don't want crappy gadgets to replace single-use, superior ones, you are NOT that majority. Plenty of people deal with crappy, inferior products when they are handy. In fact, your iPod is another example. How many people use Apple Lossless on their ipods? How many of the masses even KNOW what that is? Nope, mp3 at 128 with bad compression artificats is plenty good for them. I like convergence, except when it compromises too much... however we are clearly not the group with the most buying power.
Basically, what you are complaining about is human nature, that is magnified by certain gadgets. If it affects you to such a degree that you are overwhelmed emotionally and mentally regarding bad cell phone etiquette, I suggest you use some of that angry energy to affect some change, not bitch mindlessly to an audience that either agrees with you or doesn't care. In other words, get over yourself dude; since your iPod make you want to do something, well... do it.
Re:One thing I promise you... (Score:3, Insightful)
Not to burst your bubble but have you compared the square miles of The United States of America to that of the UK?
I really feel sad for all of you that live in the UK if it is common that your cellphones are becoming physical appendages to your personal being. In the States we simply say, "Get a Life!"
With roughly 300 Million legal US Citizens the odds of cell phones supplanting the iPod in essence by absorbing its functionality is assinine.
iPods are popular but guess what? Most people over 50 don't own them and would never purchase one-the same folks that comprise 2/3rds of the GDP and don't want to be on the Internet.
What seems odd is that no one does surveys on charting Internet usage over time. Most folks I know who were using the Internet before it became the 'big thing' rarely use it now. The fad has worn off. It is now once again a tool to be used to get answers then put back up on the shelf, so-to-speak.
Phone companies are mistrusted, in the States, due to too many experiences that support the need to mistrust them.
This shouldn't come as much of a surprise, but unless Telcos are challenged with losing customer bases at alarming rates to outside competitors they don't move to improve services for customers. It just doesn't make sense to them to give new services if customers aren't canceling accounts. Progress doesn't arrive in the States through altruistic means. It comes from the notion of Free Enterprise and disgruntled entrepreneurs who create dissent to these services luring customers to a better solution. With enough mindshare Telcos regroup and either Lobby to block these new services, offer to buy out these new companies, or offer equivalent services.
Wanna take a guess why I listed the order in which the Telcos respond? They don't improve services unless they can't stop competitors from doing it and thus take their customer base from them.
Welcome to the United States of America. We offer you opportunity in countless occupations. You just have to get it yourself.
Re:Differences between US, EU, Asia (Score:3, Insightful)
The receiver not paying is really inconsequential, and has little to do with peoples' phone usage habits. It might make them plans with more minutes per month, but that's it. I leave my phone on all the time.
What you're failing to realize is how enormous the incompatible network factor is here in the USA. Because of this, any phone you buy is usually tied directly in to your provider; you can't use it with other providers. Because of this, there's no point in buying your own phone; you might as well take advantage of the promotions where you get the phone free or really cheap, and get locked into a 2-year contract.
Because of this subsidization of the phones, the providers have the phones programmed to severely limit what you can do with them. Want some different ring tones? You can't download free ones from the web and transfer them to your phone; that's locked out. But your provider will be happy to sell some to you at a 99.9% profit margin. Of course, if you change providers, those tones you've purchased are gone. So, it would obviously be senseless to spend even more money on a more deluxe phone with additional features like MP3 playback. What happens when you get fed up with your provider and decide not to renew your contract? You'd lose all your MP3s, in addition to having to buy a new phone.
Of course, this doesn't mean this won't catch on here in the US when the technology improves. Slashdot is not representative of the US population; there's tons of stupid teenagers out there who don't mind shelling out tons of cash for ringtones, in spite of the drawbacks I've noted above. I wouldn't be surprised if they also bought into downloadable music which can't be transferred off the phone.
Article is beyond just another "iPod killer" story (Score:3, Insightful)
But I suggest those that have not read it take a look. The writer builds a good case. Everyone who has a cell phone will carry it before anything else (true for me, my G3 iPod is great but its not exactly invisible to carry, the mini maybe). processing power and storage is improving radically. Who would have thought 600-1000 songs could fit in a device the size of a zippo lighter on steroids a few years ago? Yes, convergent theories aside, this one does make sense.
The author also seems to position why Apple freaked at Real's encroachment. Its more about who controls DRM distribution in the long run - music as well as movies/video content. Despite the (rumored) loss leader of Apples iTunes service, there is big bucks in who controls the distribution in the long run. Apple (actually Jobs) is really plugged into the movie industry and the argument that the distribution of all (DRM) digital content may be the next big thing to homes and portables has some logic. iTune/iPod have been primarily a US success (remember, we are 4% of the world population) so getting control of the distribution of digital media worldwide is huge. Jobs gets it. Not sure the tunnel vision music or movie industry sees it (yet).
Don't get me wrong, I love my iPods (yes...). But I have a history of lots of cool things that morph over the long run. I am not worried, I'd love a tiny device that is the gotta have device for communication and storage/playback (I assume audio playback not video). All it needs is a processor, storage, a few keys and a ear phone jack -- wait -- this is not anything radical, it could be the same platform as a next gen phone.
I humbly suggest you take a peek at the article, worth the read.
Re:Wrong! The IPOD battery is no bigger than a pho (Score:4, Insightful)
Not Exactly Holding My Breath (Score:3, Insightful)
Right... Apple... Embattled... Porting OS X to Intel... G4 Overrated... Steve dying of cancer... iPod sales evaporating... Blah blah blah. Been there, heard dumb things like this before. Seriously, this article is retarded and a waste of Slashspace. I think the low comment numbers speak for that to a certain degree.
He talks about Real's recent breaking of the iPod (which I would be quite surprised if Apple didn't try to DMCA their ass for or at least issue a firmware upgrade to "fix" the problem) and how it's basically just the tip of the iceburg. I really enjoyed the part:
"We are stunned that RealNetworks has adopted the tactics and ethics of a hacker to break into the iPod," Apple said in a release [about Real hacking the iPod].
Now, besides the fact that Apples' response was decidedly uncool for a company whose products must stay cool at all costs...
Duh. Apple doesn't like people fucking with their shit. I can say I would have issued about the same response. Well, maybe a little more harsh, but along the same lines. It's like how they don't allow Mac clones to be made anymore. It can possibly take away market share (from the iTunes Store, in this case) from them and removes their total power over their creation, something Apple loves to control. I've used and loved Macs for somewhere in the neighborhood of 12 years, and I can say without a doubt they do not like to lose money or power over their creations. And since when has Real been "cool", as is implied by saying Apple is uncool for not allowing Real to have their way with the iPod? '96? Anyone?
Another choice quote from the article:
People can only buy what they can afford. Lots of people want an iPod; they simply can't plunk down a $300 for a digital music player.
Like hell. I thought the Minis [apple.com] wouldn't sell worth a shit (mostly due to being too expensive for not enough capacity) and I was dead wrong. I couldn't have been more wrong. They cannot keep those things in stock, and they cost $249 for 1/5 the capacity of the $300 normal iPod. Plus, apple doesn't exactly cater to the bargain basement crowd. Their cheapest computer is still several hundred dollars more expensive than almost all other major brands cheapest comp. You get what you pay for, and people know this.
And one last gem:
It's a sad truth, but yes, the iPod is going to go away. Everyone knows it; they just don't know when.
Really? Thanks for the news break, Peter Jennings. And in other news, The Persian Empire lasted, in one form or another, from 648 BC to 1935 AD. Everything goes away eventually.
Re:Well, here we go again... (Score:2, Insightful)
Success of SMS (Score:3, Insightful)
But I think it was clearly teenagers who started using SMS heavily, and older people only realized its usefulness later. Teenagers often use messages for flirting, and it may be easier to express oneself that way than by telephoning, especially when someone's shy. Many uses of SMS are a very different kind of communicating than telephoning, e.g. few people in Europe would call someone and recite a poem on the phone, but it's quite common to send poems by SMS. When it's used for personal matters, it's also better because people around you don't hear it (e.g. in a bus or train) when you write it by SMS. Or when you're with a group of people you know, they will inevitably listen to you when you telephone someone - if you don't want them to know what you're communicating to an absent person, better use SMS (they could look at the screen, but it's hard to read).
Then, it's somehow a more "gentle" way of communicating - if you telephone someone, this person *has* to answer the phone, or it is considered unfriendly, but with SMS, you can (depending on the content) just write a message, maybe an answer comes back at once, maybe in an hour or maybe none at all, it's more non-committal. I also read that it's quite common that younger people who have a relationship "control" each other via SMS (asking where the other one is, what s/he is doing etc.). Of course, that could be done by phoning all the time, but that would be much too intrusive, with SMS the level of intrusiveness is just right for the purpose.
Then, of course, there are many places where telephoning if impractical because it's too loud (e.g. concerts, discotheques) or because you are expected to be silent (e.g. in the classroom), so SMS comes in handy.
The use of SMS is now very widespread in Switzerland, but it seems that there is still the tendency that younger people use it much more often and more extensively than older people.
Mobile phones will never catch up with the iPod (Score:3, Insightful)
And this isn't just from some bitter mobile-hating dude. My mobile phone has a built-in MP3 player (and an Ogg Vorbis player I installed) and has been proven to support a 512MB MMC card. Sure, it's only one fourtieth of the storage of my iPod, but it's still 8.5 hours of music, better than any of the (3) MP3 players I bought before my iPod. Yet it's not my mobile that I hook up to an FM transmitter when I'm driving to work.
And quite frankly, I'm not intending to upgrade either my mobile or my iPod for the foreseeable future.
The trouble with this scenario (Score:4, Insightful)
The trouble is, the planets would have to align in a very precise way for this to happen.
Here's where I think he runs into trouble:
1) People who live and die by their cellphone think everybody does too. Perhaps this is generational, but most people don't take *any* devices when they go someplace. The idea that more than a minority of people think they need to be always connected is shortsighted.
2) People will not forget they can own their music. The idea of a pay-per-listen model probably gives the RIAA members chills up and down their spine, but people haven't gone for this in sizeable numbers since the 45 RPM vinyl single was produced. People can own a sizeable stack of music in almost perfect digital form on CD today without any hints of DRM or usage restrictions. I don't think people will move towards this model without getting something in return. For example, I might go to a pay-per-listen model provided the "listen" cost so little that I didnt' even have to think about it... say 5 cents or less per listen. But clearly, this is less money than the record company gets today, so where is the incentive for them?
3) People who are really into iTMS think the whole world is now downloading music. They're not. I think its great apple figured out a way to get people to download music and pay for it. But the amount they sell probably doesn't come close to what Wal-Mart does on their own.
4) Finally, the biggest flaw with this op piece is that it assumes companies can act intelligently enough over a long-enough period of time to fundamentally change the market. But Apple has never demonstrated this kind of consistency over a period of decades; heck, they've not been around long enough. Fundemantally, I doubt any one company has this power, if only because other companies will not let Apple achieve a position of dominance. Arrayed against Apple are all the tech companies, the record companies, and probably a handful of agencies that control the artists.
Now to be sure, this guy paints an interesting series of events, and who knows... maybe Apple believes it can be the new mega-entertainment power. Well, all I can say is that for all of Apple's visions and execution, they still can't get a significant portion of PC sales, so I don't believe the company really has the ability to execute in the content business. It isn't even core to Apple, how can they have any credibility in the entertainment arena?
No, this is the funny part (Score:1, Insightful)
The even funnier part is people like you who put an iPod on their credit card, pay 18.9% interest and the talk about how the price isn't a big deal.
Here's a little help to tell if you can afford something:
Item You can't afford it if...
Consumer Electronics You don't have the money in the bank now
Car The cost is more than 1/2 hour yearly gross salary
House The cost is more than 5 times your gross yearly salary
You're going into debt to buy an iPod and then criticizing other people for pointing out that the battery life sucks. Well, it aint' great, and its an issue for those of us who run, travel. Maybe if you live in your parent's basement, and you sit around all day, battery life is fine. But for those of us with a life, it isn't.
Re:iPod haters (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:iPod haters (Score:4, Insightful)
Nah. I like my iPod, but what I'm really a fan of is the design principle of the thing. It does one thing, it does it well, it's sleek, functional and ridiculously easy to use. That's what I'm protective about. I'm sure it'll be bested eventually, of course, but for now I definitely think it's the most elegant solution for what I use it for, and I definitely believe that Apple designed and marketed the sucker pefectly. I want more toys like the iPod that are as innovatively elegant, that's all.
But the battery life could be a lot longer for it to be useful.
I'd love to see longer battery life, I don't think anyone doesn't. It's a positive. The question is whether or not the battery situation actually gets in the way of normal use by the average guy who DOESN'T listen to his iPod more than 4 hours a day without recharging. Is this a common case? Not from what I've seen or experienced. If it is an issue, go get the other player with the bigger battery life. You used the word "useful" though... how many hours of battery life do you think the iPod needs to have to be deemed useful to its target crowd (college kids)
I think the funniest people are those who actually have the time to set up play lists and are always fiddling with songs.
Play with iTunes. It keeps track of all sorts of crap like how many times you've played a song, what you've rated a song (you can adjust that on the iPod), and things like that. The nice thing with iPod and iTunes are the smart playlists. They literally take under a minute to setup. I've only got a couple, like my top 150 rated, worst 10 songs, top 10 played within the last month, all songs from a certain genre, artist, songs I've never listened to, stuff like that. The playlists are automatically generated, you just have to set some parameters. It's a snap, and it works great for my purposes. What you might be refering to are the folks setting up On-the-go playlists (you can't make normal, permanent playlists using the iPod alone). It's another little feature that I like that's ridiculously simple, but effective for me. You browse through your songs (which is again, easy), hold down the "button," and it adds whatever song/album/playlist you're on to your On-the-go playlist. Wash, rinse, repeat. The playlist sticks around for a day or two, then automatically clears itself out. Good for when you're in the mood for something that your smart playlists might not cover, but don't want to set something permanent up.
You should get a bigger ipod and make sure all your songs fit. Drop the playlists, and just listen to entire albums.
Nah... I dropped the money on it last March. I encode all of my stuff at 192 and have a bit over 3000 songs, which is plenty for me right now. I've got just about every album I own on it and still have 4 or 5 gigs left. I'm waiting for something large enough that I can do everything lossless down the road, but I'm more than content for now.
Tricorder fantasy. (Score:3, Insightful)
I think a bunch of marketting types have been watching Star Trek twenty-four hours a day for several years now in an effort to get to know their most covetted target audience, the alpha geeks. They've come to the conclusion that we technical types fantasize about an all-knowing, all-powerful tricorder [cjb.net] type of device which confers success, smartness, and admiration upon its owner.
And I think they're mostly right. Most of us want success, smartness, and admiration, and we'll happily pay for a device that'll bring it instantly. The perfect all-in-one gadget is the holy grail that geeks sought long before the invention of the transistor. It's the reason for the constant evolution of the Swiss Army knife [victorinox.ch], and the Leatherman [leatherman.com]. It's the reason that people keep building cars that fly, sort of [moller.com]. The gadget that beats all other gadgets is the nerd version of a no-hassle weight loss system, hair growing tonic, love potion #9, etc.
But ultimately, they're wrong. When we get over our dreams of world domination and ultimate hipness, most of us realize that what's really important is having the right tool for the job [kk.org], not some feature-laden gadget that flies, sort of.
After all, true fans realize that even on Star Trek, the tricorder, camera, phaser, etc. are all different devices.
you don't use email then? (Score:3, Insightful)