Windows Media Center Edition vs. The World 423
sam_christ writes "An article in today's Investor's Business Daily (Google cache) and an article by TV industry pundit/predictions-huckster Philip Swann say the same thing: that Microsoft's Media Center Edition will be a big flop in 2005. Meanwhile, from what I can tell much more powerful alternatives to Microsoft's MCE bloatware are thriving: commercial products like Snapstream (see their 6-tuner Medusa PVR built for about $1200), Showshifter and open-source freeware like Mediaportal and MythTV. From what I've read about Microsoft MCE and all of its DRM and content restrictions, I have to agree with both of these articles."
Comment removed (Score:3, Insightful)
cable co (Score:5, Insightful)
They can package their services and rent them out cheaper than any of us can buy the hardware.
A good MPEG 2 capture card costs $150. Hard drive/CPU/video output is at least $200.
Heck, I can get PVR service for $8 a month.
As much as I would rather do-it-myself... it's hard to beat a rock-stable $8/month service.
So, let me get this straight (Score:5, Insightful)
Is there a disconnect here?
Actually, aside from whether or not it will be a commercial failure, Windows XP Media Center Edition 2005 actually works famously (have you ever tried it?), MUCH better than previous iterations of the product, and it supports multiple tuners (i.e., >2), lets you archive your recordings to CD or DVD, can support transmitting its content to any other PC, media center extender, or Xbox, etc. - not to mention that for a NORMAL person, it's essentially an integral part of Windows, gets updated along with the OS, and represents a major product from the majority platform, etc.
And, by the way, I absolutely loathe Microsoft and its business practices over the years in general, but let's at least be realistic here: you can't "agree" with those articles, especially Swann's, and then say that other media centers are "thriving".
[1] "Normal" here means, like, actually a normal person. Not slashdot readers. Not engadget readers. And frankly, not even savvy computer users.
People hate DRM (Score:4, Insightful)
If you restrict usage too much, people will seek for alternatives. For DRM done (arguably) right, check Apple and iTunes.
Re:cable co (Score:5, Insightful)
I finally went with the WinTV-PVR-350 for $200 dollars. It does MPEG 2 in AND out. I had an old pent 600 already...
The reason I agree with you is that the cable company's system is so integrated that I think my wife would be able to control it better. I may like the ability to rip everything to DVD... but she just wants to the ability to rip Desperate Housewives easily.
Re:So, let me get this straight (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:People hate DRM (Score:4, Insightful)
Well, I don't know who you are dealing with but NO ONE that I know has a fucking clue what region encoding is and they certainly don't ask me how to get rid of it.
You know why they don't care? Because it doesn't affect them one bit... People I know go to the video or retail store, pick out a movie, and watch it. Region encoding doesn't stop that.
Perhaps if you said that they asked you how to remove "the color fades when they record to other media from DVD" I would be more likely to believe you.
For DRM done (arguably) right, check Apple and iTunes.
How do you figure? Because you can easily get around it? Or because you agree with their DRM? Personally, Apple's DRM is to support lockin to their portable music player and to their store. Yeah, you can play MP3s on the device but if you want to get music legally you are probably going to go to iTMS (most people don't know about other alternatives such as allofmp3 [allofmp3.com]).
Define "flop"? (Score:5, Insightful)
Real alternatives? (Score:5, Insightful)
First of all, MythTV and Mediaportal are not competitors. Not yet. For them to be true competitors, they need to just work out of the box. Don't get me wrong, they're great products, but they're not true competitors in the average consumer market, just like Gentoo Linux is not a competitor with Windows XP.
And the other two products mentioned are not real competitors. If you hate "Microsoft bloatware", these are not the products for you. From the Snapstream Beyond TV System Requirements [snapstream.com] page:
From the Showshifter System Requirements [showshifter.com] page:
It doesn't get much more Microsoft-centric than that.
If Media Center Edition fails, it will be because of price and competition from the cable companies, not because of competing software. Users who buy media center PCs will stick with Windows Media CEnter Edition, because that's what it'll come with. Just like people stick with XP Home, because that's what came on their computers.
Consumers want something that just works. Hobbyists, enthusiasts, and power users may be interested in picking their own TV tuner card, and setting up MythTV, but they do not form a large percentage of the market. You have people now who have Tivos because they "just work". Tivo made something that looks like a VCR and has a remote, and that (combined with cable and satellite companies giving them away for free) more than anything is what will kill windows MCE.
From what I've read about Microsoft MCE and all of its DRM and content restrictions, I have to agree with both of these articles.
The average consumer (again, they're the ones who influence the market, not us) doesn't care about DRM, yet. They can play their CDs in the car or on their stereo - it doesn't matter if they can't rip them to MP3.
However, ironically, MCE may be the thing that wakes up Joe Consumer to the dangers of DRM. If this doesn't, the broadcast flag of HDTV might. Currently, if Joe Consumer misses a show, he can stick a tape in the VCR. And even tape the game, despite the NFL telling him not to. When he fires up his Media Center PC, and hits record, and gets a message saying "You are not allowed to do this", there's going to be a huge backlash. But we're not there yet.
Windows MCE won't be "mainstream" product. (Score:3, Insightful)
I still see WinMCE has a relatively niche product until the hardware that can fully implment it get really cheap over the next few years.
Re:People hate DRM (Score:3, Insightful)
Otherwise, the vendors selling region free players in the US would have no business.
Anyone that might have interest in foreign SAT channels (or just the BBC) will likely eventually want something not encoded as region 1.
Re:Why isn't Apple in the PVR/DVR space? (Score:1, Insightful)
""No one will buy an iPod! Are you crazy?" and now it's the geek-chic accessory of darn near everyone."
well i guess im not chic enough to blow $500 on geeky accessories when a $40 cd player does just fine for me.
Windows MCE (Score:2, Insightful)
Re:MythTV is only free if your time is worthless (Score:3, Insightful)
Installing MythTV is just a matter of installing MythTV on top of Linux. While that process could stand some more automation, it is not the herculean task that you claim it to be.
There are live CD images for MythTV as well as dedicated installers. Even installing MythTV on something like Debian is pretty simple.
"building kernel modules" is such a 1995 Wintroll comment.
Re:Why isn't Apple in the PVR/DVR space? (Score:4, Insightful)
There is a market for people who would want to digitally edit tv content for various purposes - and with iLife the Apple is the perfect platform to do that on. I think that puts them in such a legal mindfield that they don't want to go there. Microsoft DRMs the hell out of the feeds you save in order to keep the industry at bay, and Apple would pretty much have to do the exact same thing in order to keep the content industries appeased. Apple may be profitable, but one thing that could utterly destroy Apple is to be on the losing end of a multibillion dollar lawsuit.
Re:cable co (Score:5, Insightful)
Look at the recording industry, there are dozens of things I can think of where they could really benefit from better distribution of electronic media, and they have done none of those things. Its all control, don't let them sucker you into DRM, with their empty promises of on-demand.
Re:Real alternatives? (Score:5, Insightful)
We all have had to "repair" computers so infected with spyware that they are practically unusable. Now someone's PVR is going to do that! The only people that can use this long term are the technical people that can keep the thing working.
I just don't think people want a PVR that must be reinstalled every few months.
You Give The World Too Much Credit (Score:3, Insightful)
I'm just waiting for the first Media Center Worm article on /.
next up: worm brad corkscrew code
Re:MythTV is only free if your time is worthless (Score:3, Insightful)
Oh, wait, there's a new version of MythTV?! And you also want to upgrade the other programs just for the hell of it?! It's called "emerge sync && emerge -uDv world". Now your system is completely up to date.
Now try and tell me that's hard.
Re:I feel your pain, but... (Score:3, Insightful)
- Steve, even as CEO of Pixar, is one of those "kill your television" types, so I don't see him getting behind a PVR/AV component type project.
Steve can be a "kill your television" type all he wants, but his first duty is to the shareholders at Apple. If he fails to keep the profits up and the shareholders happy then he can be replaced...again.If the shareholders demand it because they see a potential windfall from Apple dominating the PVR/DVR market.
Sadly, no matter how much Steve doesn't want to integrate "TV" into the digital hub is has to be there at some point to have a complete solution. People are going to watch TV whether or not Jobs likes it. If I'm going to have a "digital hub" lifestyle, I want to use Apple-brand solutions because It Will Just Work(tm).
what about replaytv (Score:3, Insightful)
Movies (Score:4, Insightful)
* Record labels make money by selling albums over a relatively long period of time.
* You only need one or two good singles to sell an album.
* They push singles through the commercial, but not-for-pay radio [does MTV actually show music videos anymore?]
* Actual concert performances profit the band, not the record label
* They have *always* had to deal with the possibility of taping-off-radio and taping-off-CD
* Movies are much more expensive to make than albums. And probably riskier creatively.
* Movie studios make a bunch of money on live performances in movie theatres. They will hesitate to dissipate that by releasing simultaneously to consumer digital. (Although there are huge advantages to digital transmission to theaters.)
* They make a second chunk of money selling hard copy DVDs *once the first run revenue* is tapped out.
* Finally, once the DVD stream is largely tapped out, they'll make a chunk of money selling the TV broadcast rights.
* For now, the primary medium is heavy, bulky, film prints on reels, which are hard to pirate, except through sucky camcorder taping.
The whole rhythm of release and commercial structure is different for these two industries. Probably, they'll make the transition to digital quite differently.
Re:cable co (Score:4, Insightful)
The technology that I've laid out would not be any different from the current television experience that we have today. The DRM would provide the media to be viewed in a strict timeslot. Say, The Daily Show comes on at 7:00PM? Well then lock it down on the DRM box so that it comes on at 7:00PM. Commercials are mandatory for those that don't pay for the non-commercial version. How is this any different to the end user except that they've got more options?
If the content provider chooses, they could "allow" the media to be "purchased" and viewed at any time after the initial airing. Perhaps yet another option is that "premium members" could watch the shows in advance. The possibilities are endless. Yet another twist is that the "little guy" can make his own shows and become rich without having to worry about toppling the wall that is the media today.
With good DRM, you can do anything. But there has to be profit motivation for the providers. That free stuff doesn't work in a Capitalist economy (as much as we would all like it to). Yeah, that sucks but if "we the geeks" don't invent this, some enterprising - possibly evil company - will do it and we'll all be bitching about how the implementation was screwed up.
Re:Check the contract (Score:3, Insightful)
The rest of your points are valid though. Not to mention the flexibility to do what you want with the things you've recorded on your PVR.
Re:So, let me get this straight (Score:5, Insightful)
it ...lets you archive your recordings to CD or DVD, can support transmitting its content to any other PC, media center extender, or Xbox, etc.
It lets you archive to CD or DVD, but does it let you archive in a format everything can read, or only devices that pay a Windows tax? It can stream to other devices, but can it stream to a Linux box?
WMCE is all about lock in as usual. If consumers had a clue, they would not go near it with a 10-foot pole. My PVR archives to DVD or CD too, except it does so in the standard DVD or VCD formats so that any DVD player can play them. That means the portable on you use to keep you kid quiet, the one in the family van, the one at the neighbor's house, the one at the baby sitter's, the one that I will buy 5 years from now, etc.
I have doubt as to whether or not the average soccer mom will be able to figure this out before a purchase, and people are very defensive about their large purchases, so I imagine a lot of people will be buying WMCE machines in the future unless there is a better, mainstream option. Tivo is almost there, but there recent actions to prevent the archiving of some shows, has really put me off of recommending them. Where is the startup with the $400 MythTV-based solution?
Re:Guess what? (Score:5, Insightful)
When they 'care about DRM' they're irritated because their VCR recordings look bad off (macrovision) satellite signals. They think their VCR is broken. Or they cant play a dvd (of the wrong region) in their computer. They think their dvd is broken. Or they think a CD that wont play is broken. Etc. For the average consumer, things not working equals broken.
Once you explain to them that their equipment is deliberately screwing with them they tend to get very very angry, and they actually do care. They just dont usually have the time and tenacity to figure out what's wrong with their electronics. They eat the loss instead, or yell a bit at some poor clerk who doesnt understand what's wrong either.
Re:cable co (Score:5, Insightful)
So in essence this simple use of DRM to give "more options to the consumer" would just basically in essence be the removal of all our fair use rights laid out decades ago when VCRs were deamed leagal by the courts.
There is no reasonable DRM..... It will all be used to wield absolute control over the consumer. BTW this flies directly in the face of a capitalist economy where consumer demand is supposed to be a controlling factor. There is no consumer demand that we be restricted by DRM, No one wants it!
Here's the main problem with their approach (Score:4, Insightful)
Re:Guess what? (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:cable co (Score:3, Insightful)
And yet, there is nothing I have seen regarding pay per view that would make me believe their pricing for this "service" would be anywhere near reasonable. As I said before, the only way they would do this is if they could make PVRs, VCRs and indeed all timeshifting illegal.
I'm sorry, I'll do my timshifting myself thank you. I don't trust the networks enough to believe that if I give up my fair use rights that in return they will give me affordable on demand. Theres no way in hell they will.
Re:cable co (Score:3, Insightful)
Media companies WANT you to buy a package deal. They NEED you to buy a package deal. They don't want you to buy a single song. They want you to buy the whole CD. Better yet, the boxed set!
The more granularity you have in your selections, the less powerful their pitches become and the more focus they have to put into pushing all their shows/songs to be hits rather than 'passable filler between the two hits'.
Pay only for what you use might be a big hit for the customer, but it's a huge loss for the retailer. They'll never support such a plan, not while the world is run with money.
No one wants Windows relibility for their TV (Score:3, Insightful)
I can't just picture being interrupted mid movie to have my television set request permission to download a new codec, which requires a reboot and of course either makes no difference at all to me or doesn't work at all.
Re:I feel your pain, but... (Score:2, Insightful)
What they want is something that can integrate the two. They want to record TV shows and archive the good stuff to the network. They want to listen to the MP3's they ripped on a real stereo, not the crummy speakers of their computer. They want to show off their digital photo albums to people on a nice 36 inch screen in their family room not on a (comparatively) small computer monitor in their home office/ bedroom.
Homebrew systems running MythTV seem to handle these things nicely but are much too complicated for the average user.
A headless iMac with TiVO software and schedule service.... that might fit the bill for the less technical sort who want their home entertainment gear to 'just work'.
Re:So, let me get this straight (Score:4, Insightful)
WTF are you talking about? You can barely get a Dell PC with no OS for less than $500, and that's not even including the hardware you'd need for a PVR, like a capture card, big disk, and fancy case/PSU. And with the blank DVD sales, it doesn't matter if the sales increase. The profit margin is so low, it doesn't matter how many you sell.
Earlier in the thread, someone asked where the $400 MythTV box is. It doesn't exist, and neither does your idea, because it's not profitable. On slashdot, there is so much talk so much about free and open, but few really know nothing about business at all. Everything around you exists because someone made money by producing it. If it doesn't make money (or convince someone with a lot of money that it will), you aren't going to see it on the market, period. If you think this isn't the case, stick your nuts out there and try to break the trend. You'll fail, I promise.
Re:Wrong - people do not accept arbitrary change (Score:5, Insightful)
Actually, Grandpa will get pissed, and not buy any more PPV events. I've known enough people (both older and my age) that have the opinion, if this doesn't work they way it is "supposed to" (in this case, Grandpa has recorded off of the cable since he had a VCR), and "they" won't fix it, then "they" won't get any more business from that person.
Re:Wrong - people do not accept arbitrary change (Score:4, Insightful)
People like to bitch. It's both a sport and a way to vent. But in the end, these vocalizations mean very little. Grandpa *will* pay the price because he wants to see the game. We see it every day: As much as people like to bitch about the Record Industry, CDs continue to sell in rocord numbers. People gripe about spending $3 plus at Starbucks, but they do it anyway. $200 sneakers fly out of the stores, and we are quite willing to spend $3 to 6 for a bag of sliced and fried potatos. As humand, we like to bitch, but as consumers, we pay up because we want all the toys.
DIVX (Score:3, Insightful)
Also, you forget that "geeks" who care about DRM are the people who the less technically talented will go to for reccomendations on what consumer electronics to buy. Thus, 1 geek may influence the purchasing decisions of 5 or 10 different people considering something like Microsoft MCE; those people are Microsoft's target buyers and their choice to go with an MCE competitor like Tivo hurts MS's bottom line. When you consider that they're the ones everyone comes to for advice, geeks may have more power over purchasing habits than you thought.