Blink 194
Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking | |
author | Malcolm Gladwell |
pages | 288 pages |
publisher | Little, Brown (January 11, 2005) |
rating | 8 |
reviewer | James Mitchell |
ISBN | 0316172324 |
summary | This book discusses in narrative style the mechanics of subconscious snap decisions. |
First, Gladwell introduces a concept called "thin-slicing." This involves the human brain's critical reduction of information to make predictions about complicated systems. For example, a system developed at the University of Washington can predict with 95% accuracy whether a couple will be divorced within fifteen years, based entirely upon one hour of observed interaction.
Next, Gladwell discusses analogous ways the human brain uses thin-slicing to make subconscious snap decisions. Interestingly, this rapid decision-making process can easily be primed by external influences. External influences affect more decisions than many people care to admit; these factors form the basis for snap judgments and first impressions.
Gladwell relates a study of how well a subject's personality was evaluated either by strangers who visited the subject's dorm room for fifteen minutes or by friends that knew the subject well. Friends were more accurate about extraversion and agreeableness, but the strangers were better at gauging conscientiousness, emotional stability, and openness to new experiences. Thin-slicing isn't always correct; it depends on having the right information.
Superficial traits can be used to the advantage of an actor trying to project a particular characterization. Similarly, an authority figure can dress and behave in a particular fashion to influence subordinates. Warren G. Harding made overwhelmingly positive first impressions throughout his political career, although he is considered by historians to be one of the worst American presidents. Despite his consistently lackluster performance, his attractive bearing and appearance camouflaged his shortcomings.
On the other hand, by understanding the fallibilities of intuition, one can influence others' unconscious decision-making processes and be more aware of influences on one's own intuition. People can control and develop their intuitive decision-making skills. For instance, a successful car salesman would never be distracted by the appearance of a customer to the detriment of a sale. A portion of the book discusses physiological tests that reveal the strength of stereotypes in subconscious decision making by measuring reaction times.
Having defined the capabilities and limitations of intuitive decision-making, Gladwell spends a chapter focusing on spontaneity through the story of General Paul Van Riper and Millennium Challenge '02. A technologically advanced military with a vast array of information collection and "common operational picture" was pitted against a less technologically capable adversary led by General Van Riper. Much as David defeated Goliath, Van Riper's force inflicted staggering losses on his information-gorged enemy. His victory illustrates the utility of pre-arranged structure (such as "commander's intent" or "desired endstate") to empower subordinates to make spontaneous decisions. The fog of war couldn't really be defied, but decision makers could be trained to cope well with uncertainty.
The latter parts of the book discuss how intuitive decision-making can fall short. Humans' senses and subconscious minds can be negatively affected in stressful environments where stimuli are distorted and thin-slicing can easily go awry. Gladwell takes examples from recent developments in police procedures designed to avoid situations that adversely affect law enforcement personnel. For instance, many departments make their officers patrol individually. Without partners, they are more likely to wait for backup before entering dangerous situations. The author also performs a detailed deconstruction of the Amadou Diallo shooting in New York City. He concludes that the tragedy was not a product of conscious injustice, but simply a chain reaction of impaired snap decisions made within seven seconds of violence.
Overall, Blink makes for a quick read and is sure to stimulate conversation. Its premise is simple, and it contains ample food for thought. Its discussion of priming the intuition with particular stimuli and impaired "thin-slicing" provides a useful tool in deconstructing human behavior. The strengths and weaknesses of intuition-priming and thin-slicing are useful knowledge for any professional decision-maker.
You can purchase Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking from bn.com. Slashdot welcomes readers' book reviews -- to see your own review here, read the book review guidelines, then visit the submission page.
I could tell in 2 secs Gladwell had already peaked (Score:3, Insightful)
Doesn't compare to the star-nosed mole [newscientist.com], who strikes me as two notes cooler by the fact it overclocks its own brain:
"The pace of the star-nosed mole's feeding is so fast that it is approaching the maximum speed at which its nervous system can process information."
More revelations worthy of a New Yorker article just make me yawn. And, more evidence of my, um, correct opinion is corroborated here, in Black Table's "believe the hype?" review. [blacktable.com]
I doubt this would work very well (Score:1, Insightful)
It would seem this "resoning" is only applicable to certain kinds of decisions. Likely those more influenced by emotion than logic.
Contrast with "The Wisdom of Crowds" (Score:5, Insightful)
Personally, I'm interested in reading both.
First impressions... (Score:2, Insightful)
why do we need to learn about intuition? (Score:2, Insightful)
Intuition - we already got.
Funny also how he mentions that he got into the topic because cops jumped to the conclusion he was a bad guy 'cause he was a longhair.
bah (Score:5, Insightful)
Not necessarily... (Score:4, Insightful)
Instead, you could react by saying, "Well, these guys see some problem signs. Let's figure out what they are, and start fixing things." If you follow through (consistently), you may well save the marriage.
I haven't looked at the study, but it wouldn't shock me if what they look for is whether the couple expects to have to continually work to make the marriage work, or if they just assume that it'll all work out fine on it's own.
I've been married almost 15 years, and we've had to kind of rebuild our relationship about ten or twelve times in those years. You can't just sit around and let entropy do a number on you...
Re:Gladwell Interview at espn.com (Score:1, Insightful)
Snap judgments are based mostly on experience. A few details fit into a pattern, and from there it is mostly finding evidence to either contradict or support the first impression. It depends on the complexity of the problem, but snap judgments help in narrowing down the field. When there is too much complexity, snap judgments don't work anymore, ie. choosing the best hitter in a given situation.
As for the Warren Harding effect, politics doesn't have anything to do with thinking. And a common pitfall in troubleshooting is to stop checking yourself.
Derek
Re:An admission (Score:4, Insightful)
Both the Democrats and the Republicans base their ideologies on broken mythologies. The Democrat mythology is that if you allow the government to solve problems, it will. The Republican mythology, on the other hand, is that if you allow the private sector to solve problems, it will. Both mythologies are equally wrong.
There are aspects of Republican ideology which appeal to me, but, on the whole, I find that the Democrat ideology is more grounded in reality, which is why I tend to vote Democrat, in spite of having several very close friends who are Republicans (they're all very intelligent, just mistaken in their party choice; I don't hold it against them
My reactionary judgement against Republicans, as typified in my earlier post, usually stems from the way I perceive that the Republican party has gone: derailed from a party of intelligent and sincere conservatives (wither Goldwater?) to a mob of hard-core right wing Christian militants, of which our President is a typical example.
On a more positive note, I agree with you that both sides do want to find the best solutions to the problems that ail our nation and our society. Where I disagree is with the idea that "liberal thinking" is de facto wrong, and that "conservative thinking" is de facto right.
Re:Not necessarily... (Score:3, Insightful)