Canadian Movie Piracy Claims Mostly Fiction?

Justin Primus writes "Michael Geist's weekly column dismantles recent claims that Canada is the world's leading movie piracy haven. The article uses the industry's own data to demonstrate that the assertions about movie bootlegging and its economic impact are greatly exaggerated and that the MPAA's arguments about Canadian copyright law are misleading. I particularly liked how Geist dug up the fact that the MPAA itself says that there have only been 179 movies recorded with a camcorder over the past three years out of the 1,400 that the Hollywood studios released."

Broken Record

[Doc Ruby]

Why does anyone believe these unaccountable, selfserving "stats" released by the notoriously lying, litigious, abusive RIAA? We don't make gas mileage requirements taking oil companies' reports as gospel, except when "we" are really screwing "ourselves".

Shrink rate

[Skadet]

I'll probably get modded down for this, but. . . .

I particularly liked how Geist dug up the fact that the MPAA itself says that there have only been 179 movies recorded with a camcorder over the past three years out of the 1,400 that the Hollywood studios released."

You can't be serious. That's 11% of theatrical releases! Could you imagine if a retail store had an 11% shrink rate? (Hint for those unfamiliar with retail: 11% is head-rolling territory).

Look, I disagree with the RIAA as much as the next /.'er. But this statistic simply doesn't prove what the author was hoping to prove.

The reality is...

[Bullfish]

The MPAA knows the claim is bogus... like the RIAA lobbying to try to alter Canada's copyright provisions to suit them, this is just trying to sow seeds to try to get the copyright laws changed to suit the MPAA. Seriously, anyone who does download movies knows the camcorder rips are the worst of the lot... it's the studio prints that are desireable... and where do those come from?... It's all just PR (or propaganda if you will) designed to try to further their aims... and to borrow a line from another topic... this ploy is not intelligently designed...

You want to know why ticket sales are down... Ask yourself this...What is the last movies that you just had to see?

Re:proof!

[thebigbluecheez]

Well, that and the fact that you have to pay to camcorder the movie. Isn't that kind of against the whole idea of pirating?

Re:Shrink rate

[garcia]

And those are the least downloaded I'm sure. I, for one, completely ignore CAM versions and either wait for DVD or the "better" release that's ripped from some other source (usually DVD).

I don't bother to pirate much anymore because their DVD release schedules are so fast -- but if someone does need to be seen I certainly wouldn't bother with a 700MB CAM.

And how many in Canada?

[Anonymous Coward]

They asserted 50% movie piracy by camcorders in Canada.

The total FOR THE WORLD piracy rate is 11% OF THEATRICAL RELEASES according to the MPAAs own numbers.

Also just because 11% of the worldwide movies are camcordered doesn't mean they lost 11% of their movie revenues. So it's not even wastage. How did Star War do? It was heavily camcordered in the 1980's.

Comment removed

[account_deleted]

Comment removed based on user account deletion

FYI clarrification

[edwardpickman]

there have only been 179 movies recorded with a camcorder over the past three years out of the 1,400 that the Hollywood studios released.

That technique is just one of the methods and is arguably the worst way to pirate. A lot of films get bootlegged during post production and often show up before the film is released in theaters. Waterworld showed up in Russia as this chaotic mix of dailies and some cut scenes, not that the final release was much better. The most popular way to pirate has to be ripped DVDs. My friends in distribution call them $20 masters. You buy one copy and use it as a master recording. I shot a couple of low budget films and my distributor told me he saw bootlegs selling for a $1 in Malaysia right next to 100 mill Hollywood films also selling for $1. There is no market in South East Asia for domestic films, they're all pirated and sold openly. I think you'll find there are pirates of every film made. Pirating is largely free and if they are reselling the pirates DVDs are cheap to burn.

Re:Shrink rate

[digidave]

That's not necessarily 11%.

Where does the number 179 come from? Is that the number of arrests made? If so, then that's 179 out of however many million Canadians went to see those 1400 movies. Or maybe that's 179 releases made from camcorders in Canadian theatres, in which case all 179 might have come from one person or a small group of people. Maybe 179 incidents only accounts for ten movies with multiple recording attemps done for those movies.

It's like if you analyzed a large chain store and found that 11% of all the individual items they sold were stolen somewhere within the chain. Maybe only one of each item was stolen, meaning on average less than one per store, but somehow you end up with a bogus 11% shrink rate because you don't know how to work the numbers properly (or because you do and you are dishonest).

Re:The reality is...

[Aladrin]

"What is the last movies that you just had to see?"

Unfortunately, there HAVE been a few movies in the past few years that I just -had- to see. As many as when I was a kid, and I -know- I was less picky when I was a kid. A few that I remember off the top of my head:

Star Wars Ep 1 (2 was a must-see, but disappointed.)
Epic Movie (Yeah, that was just last week)
Aeon Flux
War of the Worlds
Signs
Lady in the Water

And I'm sure there were quite a few others, as I avidly looked forward to going to the movie theatre about every 3rd or 4th week. (The other weeks, we went anyhow but not because we -had- to see that particular movie.)

So actually, there's been plenty worth watching to at least some of us. If you found nothing good, perhaps you should find another source of entertainment, instead. Don't use it as an excuse to download movies without paying for them. (Not accusing you, I mean that in general.)

Re:Shrink rate

[tinkerghost]

You're using the wrong ratio. 11% shrink isn't what they are talking about. They are talking about only 11% of the products on the shelves - in all of the stores - was stolen by camming.
In retail you're talking more along the lines of saying - "OK this year we've had 3% shrinkage, of that 80% was by shoplifting and 20% was credit/check fraud. Looking into the fraud, we can see that only 11% of the products we stock are ever stolen by fraud." This should be followed by the question "WTF is wrong with the rest of our crap that it's not even worth stealing"

To paraphrase Mark Twain...

[fahrbot-bot]

There are lies, damn lies, and MP/RIAA statistics.

Served its purpose...

[debest]

The movie industry made a big deal out of this simply to get some good headlines. Geist's expected hatchet job on its "facts" are beside the point. Virtually no one will hear it: only those already tuned in to the lies are reading Geist's columns.

The purpose of the hype was to provide "justification" for Bev Oda to push for the reforms that she and the content industry have been working on. If this goes as I expect, watch for some more sabre-rattling headlines to come, followed quickly by a copyright reform bill that will address the content industry's wish list.

As much as I don't want another election, I hope the Conservatives' upcoming budget is defeated, so that any of Oda's bills will die on the table when the government falls.

Incentive to watch a movie at the movie theatres?

[arock99]

Their lost revenue isnt some cheap cammed version of a movie here...it's because more people than ever before have big screen televions at home. DVD is also to blame...the quality is just better than ever before at home and people have more reason to either rent or buy a movie. The novelty of watching it on a big screen has worn off to some point. What they need to do is give people more incentive to go see it while it is still at the movie theatre. Perhaps a voucher where you get a discount if you buy the movie on DVD later...or perhaps try and make more movies people want to watch. There is a reason why there is a lot more direct to DVD movies than ever before. Movie theatres are going to become a novelty someday and will simply complement simultaneous release on DVD of movies. It's up to the industry to wake up and learn this sooner rather than later. Look at the music industry...they lost more revenues than they could have by trying to fight digital music downloads rather than embrace it. It is nice to see that the video game industry seems to have learned from all of this by letting people download video games on their consoles and letting amateur gave developer in on the revenue pie (360, PS3, and wii all allow you to download games). One thing's for sure though let's hope they never go entirely digital...it is nice to own a movie you can see on your shelf...the same applies to video games

Re:Served its purpose...

[canfirman]

As much as I don't want another election, I hope the Conservatives' upcoming budget is defeated, so that any of Oda's bills will die on the table when the government falls.

The problem is that if it isn't Oda, it'll be somebody else. The movie and music industries will just turn their attention to the next Heritage Minister. No matter what political party is in power, the movie and music industry will always shmooze with the government to get their way.

Re:Shrink rate

[AJWM]

That's 11% of theatrical releases! Could you imagine if a retail store had an 11% shrink rate?

Faulty comparison. For that to be valid, then after somebody camcords a movie, nobody pays ticket price any more. Taking something off a retail store shelf makes that particular item unavailable for anyone else to buy, so it is a real loss. A cam copy may cut in to movie ticket sales slightly, but it doesn't make the movie no longer available in the theatre.

You'd have a somewhat better comparison (although still flawed) if pirates were holding up the theatres and stealing the reels of film.

Re:Flawed Stats

[Jesus_666]

You: Can I have your raw data and methods please?
MPAA: No, because of privacy concerns.
You: Ah, well, then you can surely give me the samples you worked with?
MPAA: No, those are private as well. As are our methods.
You: Can I at least see the results?
MPAA: No, those are especially private.
You: Well, what can you give me?
MPAA: Nothing. There never was a statistic. These are not the droids you are looking for. We're not here. *hides behind a tree*

Probably the most successful 13%

[Geof]

The movie industry, like the music industry, releases a large number of movies, but makes most of the money from a small number of hits. Since pirates will tend to target the most popular films, that 13% of films probably represents the majority of revenues and profits.

Of course, it's very difficult to determine just how much loss the existence of pirate versions of those films represents to the industry. It might be significant; it might be quite small. The MPAA hardly has a record of being honest in its assessments. How many in-theater pirated DVDs of Hollywood films do Slashdotters have? Are you folks aware of many other people with pirated DVDs? I bet it's not many, though I also suspect Slashdot's (often young, male, with disposable income, tech and pop culture savy) population is a prime target for both Hollywood and pirates. How many Thais (say) would have bought the $20 DVD if there were no pirated version? I bet that's not so many either.