All Flash iPod Line-up on the Horizon?

VE3OGG writes "Several news reports are taking note of the opinion of Prudential Equity Group analyst Jesse Tortora, who seems to think that an all-flash iPod lineup could be coming in the near future. While some point out that this would ultimately super-inflate the cost of iPod production, Tortora rebukes them: '...the late 2005 Nano transition to flash provides a guide as to the point at which the previously mentioned non-cost advantages of flash memory outweigh the cost premium.' He believes that later this year Apple will unveil either a 32GB or 64GB flash-based Video iPod. Of course, like all good analysts, he also throws out some far-fetched claims. These include: the next round of video iPods will also include an iPhone-esque wide touchscreen, WiFi for Apple TV streaming, and GPS functionality. Will this be the start of a super-high-end iPod line, or perhaps a middle-of-the-road iPod Video?"

60G of flash?

[tomstdenis]

w00t no moving parts. Now make the battery user accessible, and make it play mp3/aac/ogg/flac off directories and not itunes databases and we're all set. ... yes I know you can use things like gnupod to put your own tunes on. It's just a pain in the arse.

Tom

Golden Plated Requirements

[HappySqurriel]

Most analysts and (unfortunately) executives look at golden plated requirements as a good thing, even though (in many cases) they really aren't ... An all flash iPod with tons of flashy features sounds great on paper until you see the price tag at $800; the price tag is never seen as that bad by many of these people because their six figure salary is (way) above their average customers income level.

This could be good

[jdcool88]

While I expect an iPod equipped with 64GB of flash memory would be quite expensive, it is also the perfect market to lower the cost of SSD drives. Go Apple, go!

Re:Golden Plated Requirements

[CastrTroy]

But the original 10 Gig ipod was around $700 and it didn't have much problem selling. Most people will just go from some unit with less memory, like the 4 Gig Nano. If you really want to have the iPod video, you're prepared to spend big bucks anyway. I don't think there's that much of a difference between a person willing to pay $400 for a portable music player, and one who wants to spend $800. Either way it's outside the reach of 80% of people.

Anything is possible

[Chairboy]

This is a classic 'disruptive technology' situation. The Flash memory is more expensive and has less capacity than the moving disc, but in the long term, the benefits would outpace the downsides. When the 3.5" hard drives started coming out, they had lower capacity, cost more, and were slower than the 5.25" hard drives, but they were smaller. How many 5.25" hard drives are being made today? Many of the companies that built 5.25" hard drives failed to survive the transition because it was obvious that the public wouldn't stand for paying more for less. Obvious and correct weren't in agreement, as history showed us.

On a side note, I'm betting we'll see bluetooth enabled iPods before too long. Wireless headsets are cool, sure, but the real money maker will be as a wireless link for the iPods to be available as external storage for things like the iPhone. Doesn't need to be super fast to stream or one-up songs from "The archive" to the iPhone, and there's a continuing market for iPods even for people who just dropped $500+ on the iPhone.

Re:60G of flash?

[wakejagr]

make the battery user accessible, make it play mp3/aac/ogg/flac files from dirs instead of itunes databases - while we're at it, why not give it a built in radio and the ability to record from that radio . . . sounds like we're talking about one of the many competitors to the ipod. if you want something that does those things, buy something that does those things. apple is obviously taking their product in a different direction, and while i won't be buying one anytime soon (i like mp3 and ogg playback, radio, off-the-shelf batteries, etc), apple's idea is definitely working to the tune of a majority share in the marketplace.

Re:Analyst wrong, no larger screen

[JWW]

I completely disagree. I think there is enourmous demand for a widscreen touch screen iPod. In fact I think sales of the current video iPod are really going to suffer. I know have decided to wait an see about a widscreen iPod instead of buying one of the current video iPods.

I believe he's dead on on that one. Sometime either shortly before or shortly after June, Apple will NEED to release the new widescreen iPod, because not everyone will be willing (or able - thats me) to get an iPhone. All of these people do not want the current iPod video we want a widescreen iPod.

Also for some convergance is overratted, some people just want a music (and video, ok some convergance isn't overrattted) player.

Having a hard time seeing it.

[joeytmann]

Is it just me? Apple makes this hugely antcipated announcement for the iPhone that has more bells and whistles than any other phone, now you are going to keep the iPod on the cutting edge? My guess is that the iPod won't really evolve much until the technology gets cheaper. Why spend $500 on an iPhone, then turn around and spend another $500 on an iPod that has the same capabilities as a player? Sorry, but I will stick with my smartphone and my iPod Nano which costs about the same as an iPhone.

History has shown execs have no problem with price

[hellfire]

the price tag is never seen as that bad by many of these people because their six figure salary is (way) above their average customers income level.

History, especially recent history, and very especially the history of the iPod, has shown that's false. Execs are acutely aware of prices of their items. Sales price is the single most important thing to any exec because it's how you make money!! People think that because an iPod isn't $25 that it's not priced for the masses. Guess what? If you can only afford $25 for an mp3 player, then Apple is NOT targetting you. Execs spend boku bucks figuring out the right market for their goods and services.

Will they use market forces to keep their prices high? Sure. Corporations aren't by any means populist, they know exactly what they are doing.

You don't quite get the typical Apple consumer.

[Anonymous Coward]

It's not about functionality. It's not about value. It's not about speed. It's about having the smallest, sleekest, hippest gizmo on the block. It's not uncommon to see people scrimping and saving for weeks to purchase the latest iWhatever even though they've got two or three functional previous models at home. Like shoes... Apple sells consumer electronics the way people sell tennis shoes.

Re:60G of flash?

[BrokenHalo]

I use gtkpod with my iPod. The interface is similar enough to iTunes to make no difference (except for being gtk of course) and it's preferable to having to dual-boot. Of course, it doesn't cooperate with Apple's DRMware they try to sell us, but that's fine by me since I prefer to encode my own mp3s from CD.

Re:60G of flash?

[Bob Gelumph]

Apple like to do a few things really well that all fit in with one another.
Adding radio could be done, but it is far from core, and could work against people paying for music.
What is wrong with them letting 3rd party manufacturers from making their own plug-ins like the iTrip?
Sure, being able to dump a whole lot of files on the iPod with them being playable would be good, but it introduces more complexity that doesn't fit in with their strategy.
Apple wants a particular structure for the music on iPods because it is easy for them to maintain. What is the problem with that?
They could introduce heaps of new features, but unless it really makes sense from a design point of view, then they won't do it.
I bought a cheap shuffle sized player with a small lcd and very few buttons that allows more flexibility for where you put your music. It even has a radio. The interface is crap, however. I knew it would be crap when I bought it, but I wanted something cheap. When you start bundling in all the features that small segments of your market want, you end up with MS Office 2003. That's why MS got rid of 90% of the stuff for 2007. They want to make it easy to maintain and easy to use, with just enough functionality to satisfy most people.

Re:Golden Plated Requirements

[poot_rootbeer]

But the original 10 Gig ipod was around $700 and it didn't have much problem selling.

It also didn't have an earlier iPod version before it with more capacity and a lower cost.

Currently, an 80GB HDD-based iPod is $350. I can't possibly imagine a 64GB Flash-based iPod going for less than $500. Why should I pay more for the ability to store less content?

Re:Golden Plated Requirements

[Hal_Porter]

If you want a full sized video screen, why not go for the Archos, or the Creative Zen Vision?

Because those don't play one's collection of FairPlay audio.

This is why you should never use DRM'd formats.