Wal-Mart Begins Massive Push For HD DVD

Several readers sent us word of Wal-Mart's ordering 2 million HD DVD players from China. Hans V wrote, "My kids work at Wal-Mart and the manager there has been talking about this. HD-DVD's are selling like mad there so I hear." Another reader sent us a few links in Chinese and summarized them this way: "The first batches of these blue-laser HD DVD players are to land sometime in 2007, with complete fulfillment of the order [from Fuh Yuan] in 2008. The deal could be worth up to $300 million US, which translates to $150 per player. If so, by the time Christmas 2007 rolls around, Wal-Mart could be selling these for less than $200 retail, although some speculate that the initial manufacturer suggested retail pricing might be in the ballpark of $299. Currently the cheapest high-definition player is a Toshiba HD DVD with an MSRP of $399." By comparison Blu-Ray players, manufactured in Japan, are not expected to drop below $1000 until next year. The International Herald Tribune writes about the risk Toshiba is taking by bringing in Chinese manufacturers to trump Sony in the format war.

We have a winner!

[rednip]

Will the person who picked HD-DVD in April 2007 for the next gen DVD format pool, please step forward to collect their winnings. I don't think that there is any chance that Sony and friends could over come this.

Re:We have a winner!

[Anonymous McCartneyf]

I didn't bet, but you're probably right.
I saw an ad in Entertainment Weekly pushing the idea of discs that had DVDs on one side and HD-DVDs on the other. Anyone want to bet that studios supporting HD-DVD will soon issue all their new (non-BluRay) films in this format? Those discs will play in ordinary DVD players, and they will be already adapted to one HD format if the customer decides to upgrade to HD. Backward compatibility and possible lock-in: what a beautiful combo for a marketing department!

blacklisting

[Joe The Dragon]

What will Wal-Mart do if one of there cheap and big seller players get blacklisted?
Ii would suck to be working there on that day.

suggestion to Toshiba

[Adult film producer]

if you really in this game to win then build a couple of manufacturing plants in the u.s. to build these hd-dvd drives.. I can't imagine that this country doesn't have the ability to build cd drives efficiently.. you could win over a lot of people this way, build positive press, etc..

Re:We have a winner!

[Gunslinger47]

1. How many of those 3+ million PS3s are connected to HDTVs?
2. 11+ million PSPs have been sold but people still don't care about UMD.

Its not that hard to believe...

[SQLz]

I mean: Radio -> HDRadio Tv -> HDTV DVD - >HDDVD Its just simpler for the consumer. Even the industry standard names for the damn aspect ratio is HDxxx depending on the resolutions. The poster also forgets, PS3 is a blue ray player and well under $1000 but that is beside the point. Truthfully, I hope Sony stops with the format obsession. The sad fact is that Sony would have been a lot better off just going with HDDVD. We would all be making money right now and not waiting for years while the consumer waits to see who is going to win. I'm not an industry specialist or anything, obvisouly, but I just don't see the next gen HD format being called "blu ray", when all others are HD-.

Re:No, Sony will have a $600 player shortly

[LIGC]

They already have another Blu-ray player out under $1000: the PS3.

Blu-Ray could win but be called HD-DVD

[freshmayka]

I can very easily see a scenario five years from now where Blu-Ray is the dominant format but consumers call it HD-DVD because to them (as another poster pointed out) it's all HD.

Re:We have a winner!

[Anonymous Coward]

Well, they say that Blu-ray has better studio backing so HD-DVD has a bit of a handicap. In order to win, HD-DVD has to sell to sell enough units to get all of the studios to back it while Blu-ray only has to sell enough to not lose support from the studios. I think they're both still in the race.

PS3, HDTV, and FCC's analog switchoff

[tepples]

How many of those 3+ million PS3s are connected to HDTVs?

In February 2009, the FCC of the United States cuts off analog television broadcast, and Americans will make a run on the big box stores to buy spanking new televisions to watch the NCAA men's basketball tournament [wikipedia.org] on. How many of those 3+ million PS3s will connected to HDTVs by the end of March 2009?

11+ million PSPs have been sold but people still don't care about UMD.

UMD Video didn't offer much of a quality or convenience improvement over the DS and a portable DVD player that the same $250 could buy you at the time (before PSP price cuts), and UMDs were more expensive than DVDs. Compared to DVD-Video, Blu-ray Disc at least has higher picture resolution on HDTV and less noticeable artifacts even when scaled down to 960x480 for component EDTV.

Re:We have a winner!

[kosanovich]

"How many of those 3+ million PS3s are connected to HDTVs?"

Right let's assume that PS3 owners don't have HDTVs but suddenly everyone shopping at walmart does?

Re:PS3, HDTV, and FCC's analog switchoff

[Anonymous Coward]

His argument was in his user name.

Re:HD DVD Wins

[vertigoCiel]

I'm not sure if HD-DVD will proliferate to the same extent as VHS, or even DVD's.

VHS had no previous iteration - it was a completely new method of distributing media, so it was an easy sell.

DVD proliferated because of significant technical advantages over VHS - mainly startlingly better picture quality, and ability to output 16:9 widescreen formatted video.

However, HD-DVD and Blu-Ray only offers one advantage over DVD's: superior picture quality. This is only evident, however, on relatively new HD TV sets, which have not been widely adopted by the viewing public.

The fact is that DVD quality is "good enough" for many people, even if they own HD sets. So until HD-DVD and Blu-Ray hit the same price points as DVD's today, and HD TV's penetrate a majority of households, expect to keep seeing movies released on both DVD and HD-DVD/Blu-Ray. I expect the process will take at least a decade, if not more - about the same time it took VHS to become defunct after DVD's premiered.

Re:"Writes"?

[saforrest]

seriously. My favorite anachronism is Sony also plans to put the technology in the PlayStation 3 when the game console is released in the spring

Well, that's not an anachronism. That statement was entirely accurate when the IHT article was written — in October 2005.

Re:PS3, HDTV, and FCC's analog switchoff

[edwdig]

In February 2009, the FCC of the United States cuts off analog television broadcast, and Americans will make a run on the big box stores to buy spanking new televisions to watch the NCAA men's basketball tournament on. How many of those 3+ million PS3s will connected to HDTVs by the end of March 2009?

What do you think the odds are that the type of person who isn't willing to spend the money on cable or satellite TV is going to spend $500+ on an HDTV when they could instead spend $50 on a converter box? Don't forget the government subsidy [com.com] on a converter box, making the cost as low as $10.

Also, how much of an intersection do you really see between the set of people with old TVs that don't spend any money on television service and the set of people who are early adopters for the PS3 ?

Re:We have a winner!

[Babbster]

Realistically, though, I don't think the price of the players matters much. What matters is the movies available. Blu-Ray has a lot more content industry support, and that's not changing.

You're fooling yourself. Families often had multiple VHS players and now often have multiple DVD players. Even the hardcore AV folks are going to balk at spending $500+ per Blu-ray player after their first. Get a player under $200, though, and it looks far more attractive for the masses to replace a DVD player with an HD DVD player.

No, the price of the player is absolutely critical and if Wal-Mart is selling HD DVD players for half or less the cost of the cheapest Blu-ray player, Blu-ray will be looking at a disaster. Blu-ray has had a good few months thanks to [dumb] people buying PS3s but Sony has, in essence, raised the price of the PS3 by $50 (by killing the unit that was $100 cheaper) and still doesn't have great games to sell that system. Even if they can get a $400-500 Blu-ray player on the market, people aren't going to pay a premium for it over an HD DVD player with the same capabilities, and the [non-Sony] studios will follow the installed base.

Oh yeah, and if by "a lot more content industry support" you mean Sony and a couple other companies that haven't produced much, if any, Blu-ray content, then you're right. To me, it looks like the companies that have paid lip service to being on the Blu-ray bandwagon are still waiting to see how things shake out.

Re:We have a winner!

[Lost Engineer]

...but I thought we were paying for the cost of making the movies. That's why we're not supposed to pirate, right?

They lie.

Pssst, wanna buy the Brooklyn Bridge?

[DumbSwede]

So let me get this straight -- a deal that Walmart hasn't admitted to, with a format that may or not be HD-DVD (because it could be Blu-Ray given translation problems), with players that won't come out till 2008, will absolutely win the format war for HD-DVD, because no there is no reason for anyone to not buy HD-DVD now (at the currently higher prices) because they promise to win the war because these (without a doubt according to HD-DVD fanboys) are on the way. The same way they promised to win because HD-DVD's early to market strategy would give them an "Unbeatable" lead. And how "All" the studios would support HD-DVD because of the lower replication costs.

Unless the studios change alignments and go neutral by Christmas it is all over for HD-DVD. Period. I am dubious anyone can make an HD player for 50 dollars (say, how well does "Children of Men" play for you on your XBox 360?). Maybe the mechanism, but it takes a lot of horsepower to do all the modern codecs at full HD and with the DRM overhead.

I suspect this will all turn out to be a huge misunderstanding that is blown all out of proportion by the HD-DVD camp looking for any good news to hang their hats on after having gotten beaten badly 4 months in a row. Children of Men is out and Matrix preorder has also come and gone. HD-DVD doesn't have any more ammo in the content pipeline to compete with the big titles coming Blu-Ray's way in the next few months.

If you include PS3 players Blu-Ray sells more players every month than HD-DVD has sold in a full Year.

Having been to China, they call DVD9 HD-DVD on the street and on the packaging. I suspect we are talking a conventional DVD player that scales conventional DVD to HD resolution. This could definitely be produced for $50 dollars or less. I do not believe they can make $50 HD-DVD players that actually work. Remember this stuff has to have HDMI for God's sake. If it were possible to do the processing, they'd still probably still have to skimp by piping out component only and hope the Down Rez flag never gets set on future HD-DVD discs.

Blu-Ray also has two additional layers of DRM (and yes I know how much slashdotters all hate DRM) and these will be used for the first time soon. Since the AACS is now completely compromised, the studios will really be watching to see how well Blu-Ray's additional layers hold up. If they last even a few months, the studios will offer up HD-DVD on the altar as a sacrifice to the DRM gods.

It's not all about how cheap the players are. People that can afford a decent big HDTV (and it really does need to be big to see the BIG difference) can afford a $500 Blu-Ray players (and yes they exist now, pay no attention to the "$1000" player FUD, hell buy a PS3 for $600) and will care more about how many movies are available. Sure HD-DVD will be 100-200 dollars cheaper this Christmas, but Blu-Ray will have the movies and will eventually be considered a must buy item for good HDTVs. People that don't have HDTV or are satisfied with DVD don't need either.

Re:not going to happen...

[Anonymous Coward]

Probably the biggest reason that HD isn't taking over is that TVs are simply too durable. Most people don't replace TVs until they no longer work. And TVs can last decades. So even if most of the new TVs sold are HDTVs, it's going to be a long time before they replace all of the existing TVs.

Re:We have a winner!

[king-manic]

Yeppers. And I, for one, couldn't be happer: anything to quash yet ANOTHER attempt by Sony to lock us into another godforsaken proprietary format.

You mean proprietary like CD and DVD? You do realize it's not just Sony behind BD. You do realize that the majority of the successful formats for media in the last three decades have had sony in there somehwere. CD, DVD, 3.5", minidisc. they fell a lot when they went it on their own. But they have had a hand in almost all the successful digital media formats. Proprietary does not mean instant loss. The majority of data formats you use are propriatary. While HTTP, TCP/IP, and ethernet are open formats the bit codes that run your CPU, the assorted IP that make up most of your computer are propriatary. Get some perspective.

PS. This is the the decision makers behind the BD format

        * Apple
        * Dell
        * Hewlett-Packard
        * Hitachi
        * LG
        * Mitsubishi Electric
        * Panasonic
        * Pioneer
        * Philips
        * Samsung
        * Sharp
        * Sony
        * Sun Microsystems
        * TDK
        * Thomson
        * Twentieth Century Fox
        * Walt Disney Company
        * Warner Bros.

I don't know about you...

[Mix+Master+Nixon]

...but I've been waiting for the no-name Chinese players to turn up before I even gave either HD format the slightest consideration. Unfortunately, now I'm waiting for the cheap Blu-Ray/HD-DVD hybrid players to show up. Whichever one of those can be hacked the most thoroughly to do the most cool shit (and turn off the most annoying DRM "features") will be the one I end up taking home.

Re:not going to happen...

[Firethorn]

You're correct. Current predictions have the television companies actually not having all HD stations, or even mostly HD stations. It's a matter of marketing and bandwidth. They can fit something like 4-8 regular broadcast stations into the amount of spectrum it takes to broadcast one HDTV signal. Add in that do you really need your news in HDTV, that props*, makeup, and cameras are all cheaper for SDTV, and the huge amount of programming available only in SDTV.

For example, all the new TVs I've looked at walmart now have the digital tuners required for the new signal. Many of them are SDTV in resolution, they'll simply downsample a HD signal if you want to watch one. They're also a quarter of the price of a similiarly sized HDTV set.

The changeover is going to happen in 2009. There are some signs that you may even be able to get the converter box for free with the federal coupons out there. The Billions of dollars made available by selling off the freed frequencies will be the main reason for it to happen. Personally I'm hoping to see some new business and wireless devices spring up to take advantage of the frequencies made available.

*Artifacts such as wires that are invisible in standard definitions can be very visible in HDTV, as well as sloppy makup jobs, etc...

Re:We have a winner!

[Firethorn]

The average Joe (who shops at Wal-Mart) will own an HD television?

You'd be suprised; the local TV section is about 50-50 for HD and SD. The HD section looks to be 2/3rds the TV section, but that's because HDTVs average substantially larger. 50" HDTVs aren't uncommon, and they minimize out at around 20". For STDVs they max out around 36", and min out around 12"(kitchen tubes?).

And I seriously doubt Walmart stocks anything that doesn't sell.

Re:Lot more than "just plastic"

[Anonymous Coward]

I'd think that the most important problem why a single disk is better than two is shipping damage. If the frequency with which mailorder multiple DVD packs arrive here that have become loose inside the box and are scratched, i'd have to assume that 1/4 to 1/2 of all such DVDs get damaged in shipping. If you compare that with precisely 0% f all DVDs in single DVD packages getting damaged, there's a pretty good reason for retailers to prefer single DVDs.

Additionally, glueing the HD and SD DVDs together prevents buyers from selling the half they won't be needing.

Re:HD DVD Wins

[funkdancer]

"But the advantages for HD-DVD over DVD are minimal. For movies, there's only better picture and sound"...

I'm not sure what you're looking for in a movie (YMMV etc), but the above statement really deserves an award for being probably the funniest of all in this thread :)