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Most Consumers Sitting Out The High-Def War 681

Posted by Zonk from the might-be-early-to-choose-sides dept.
The New York Times notes that, despite the increasing variety of programs on the Blu-ray and HD-DVD formats, most US consumers are staying out of the DVD format war. This is a wise decision, the article states, because the two formats are essentially at a stalemate. "The two camps are victims of their own earlier success with DVD. The standard DVDs offered a quantum leap in quality from the picture and sound of VHS videotape, and for many that was more than adequate. In addition, DVD players that can convert images to near high-definition quality can be found for under $100, hundreds less than a true high-definition DVD player, further reducing the urgency to upgrade to one of the new formats."
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Most Consumers Sitting Out The High-Def War More

Most Consumers Sitting Out The High-Def War

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  • Waiting For Dual (Score:5, Interesting)

    by markdavis ( 642305 ) on Monday December 31, 2007 @09:19AM (#21864674)
    Most of us are waiting for inexpensive, dual format (Blueray & HD-DVD) players. Who wants to buy into an expensive player that can only play half the movies or programs out there? As the work, friends, and family "hi tech" person, I recommend to everyone to wait for dual format. They find it amazing that I don't have either format yet.

    Another group of prospects are waiting for ripping capability, so they can assert their fair use rights (even though they don't have any under the DMCA).

    I don't predict either format will "win" nor "die" over the next few years. So, by each camp resisting dual-format, all they are doing is hurting the whole prospective market.

    Lastly, a HUGE number of consumers can't even tell the difference between DVD and HD quality! The difference in sound is total marketing drivel. But the difference in picture- oh yes, it is major. But that goes to show... if most consumers can't even tell the difference, why should they pay more?

    • DVD vs HD quality (Score:4, Interesting)

      by putaro ( 235078 ) on Monday December 31, 2007 @09:28AM (#21864736) Journal
      We just bought a 42" LCD HDTV (1080P). Standard DVD's look damn good on it. I would believe that HD sources will look even better but I'm not willing to shell out for one of these players to experiment. Probably I will be downloading some HD content to see how they look vs the DVD's. Like you, though, I don't see any point in buying a player until either I can buy a dual-format player for a reasonable price or one of the formats is a clear winner.

      • Re:DVD vs HD quality (Score:5, Insightful)

        by walt-sjc ( 145127 ) on Monday December 31, 2007 @10:00AM (#21865016)
        Agree on the quality of standard DVD's with a good HD set and player... But there is another issue too. I won't buy an HD player until I can be sure I can make media backups 100% of the time like I can with standard DVD's. THAT, more than anything else, is what is holding me back.

        • Re:DVD vs HD quality (Score:5, Insightful)

          by h4rm0ny ( 722443 ) on Monday December 31, 2007 @11:28AM (#21865896) Journal

          Seconded. I want to be able to stream all of my movies from my home server on demand, not fiddle around with discs that can be damaged. But a big point with the DRM is that if one of the formats didn't have it, that format would suddenly become safe to invest in. It wouldn't be ideal to have to re-burn all of my HD discs if the format went under and everyone used Blueray, but I (a) wouldn't need to as I could play them from the file and (b) would at least be able to without as much cost as replacing them if I so chose.

          Get rid of the DRM and you're not taking a big risk in buying that media.

      • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

        by gEvil (beta) ( 945888 )
        If you want to see what HD sources look like, try hooking a UHF antenna up to the set. Sure it's "only" 1080i (or 720p), but the clarity will stun you. It's easily the cheapest/easiest way to explore HD material, and yet hardly anyone ever thinks of doing it.

    • Re:Waiting For Dual (Score:5, Interesting)

      by pebs ( 654334 ) on Monday December 31, 2007 @09:30AM (#21864764) Homepage
      Another group of people is those that don't even care about the prospect of watching movies on these formats, but are more interested in data storage. They are waiting for the price to go down on writable media.

    • Almost completely agree (Score:5, Insightful)

      by debest ( 471937 ) on Monday December 31, 2007 @09:35AM (#21864814)

      Lastly, a HUGE number of consumers can't even tell the difference between DVD and HD quality! The difference in sound is total marketing drivel. But the difference in picture- oh yes, it is major. But that goes to show... if most consumers can't even tell the difference, why should they pay more?

      Although there may be some that can't tell the difference in quality, I think a far larger proportion of people just don't care about the increase in quality (myself included). I've seen demos in stores. I've seen a Sony disc that tries to show the difference side-by-side on the same movie (splitting the screen of a scene to show the left side as DVD and the other as Blu-Ray). Yeah, it's way better, but I don't give a crap! I don't have the cash, or the desire, to upgrade my television. DVD is good enough for me, and will be for a long, long time. I do not have interest in paying one cent more for the better quality video.

      Never mind how much more difficult it is to rip the content!

      • Re:Almost completely agree (Score:5, Interesting)

        by TheRaven64 ( 641858 ) on Monday December 31, 2007 @10:27AM (#21865254) Journal
        Mod parent up. My stepfather is still buying VHS tapes if they are cheap, because the quality is good enough. DVDs are more convenient (no need to rewind, smaller space required to store them) and so he's more-or-less switched to buying them. He has a huge collection of films and absolutely no intention of buying either HD format. He can see DVD is better than VHS, but the content not the pixel count is what he cares about.

        I tend to watch most DVDs on my laptop these days. I upgrade roughly every three years, so in two years I might end up with a BD or HD-DVD drive. At that point, I might start watching movies on whichever format the drive supports. I don't buy DVDs anymore though, I only ever rent them. I rarely want to watch a film more than once, and so I'd rather pay a fixed rate for access to new films than buy them individually. In two years, if someone is offering a download service over the Internet then I'd use that instead of renting disks in any format, as long as it's not tied to Windows and offers a flat-rate cost.

        • Re:Almost completely agree (Score:5, Insightful)

          by Jonny_eh ( 765306 ) on Monday December 31, 2007 @11:39AM (#21866028)
          Boo on VHS! Most of the movies on that format are Pan and Scan!
          The greatest thing DVD did for home video was making letterbox/anamorphic widescreen mainstream.

      • Re:Almost completely agree (Score:4, Insightful)

        by RightSaidFred99 ( 874576 ) on Monday December 31, 2007 @11:56AM (#21866222)
        In other news, a $13000 Hyundai gets me from point A to point B just as well as a $43000 BMW. Why on Earth are people buying those BMW's???! It's craziness!

        • Re:Almost completely agree (Score:4, Insightful)

          by debest ( 471937 ) on Monday December 31, 2007 @01:04PM (#21867042)

          In other news, a $13000 Hyundai gets me from point A to point B just as well as a $43000 BMW. Why on Earth are people buying those BMW's???! It's craziness!

          Of course a BMW is a better car than a Hyundai, just as HD-DVD/Blu-ray are better than DVD. Most people don't care about that, either. They can't justify the benefits, given the increased cost. From 2006 sales figures [autoblog.com], Hyundai sold 455,012 cars, while BMW sold 274,432. Seems more people, by your own example, agree with me.

    • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

      by rucs_hack ( 784150 )
      I would have thought anyone buying one of those monster size TV's might want the HD player to go with it, whichever version.

      Mind you, being a non telly owning wierdo, I don't actually know how usual it is to have a large TV, if it's very common to own one of those monster HD sets, and people still aren't buying HD players, then I imagine there might be a problem getting them to upgrade. For me, a dvd on my 19" wide screen monitor is more than enough, quality wise.

      Personally I think this is all happening bec

    • Re:Waiting For Dual (Score:5, Insightful)

      by Anonymous Coward on Monday December 31, 2007 @09:39AM (#21864848)
      "Another group of prospects are waiting for ripping capability, so they can assert their fair use rights (even though they don't have any under the DMCA)."

      Whoa, there. People DO have fair use rights under the DMCA. Those rights haven't gone away. The peculiar situation introduced by the DMCA is having fair use rights, but not being able to legally exercise them because of the encryption and the illegality of circumventing it.

      It would be kind of like paying to have the right drive your car on the street because you have a license, insurance, etc., but not actually being able to exercise that right because there is a wall built at the bottom of your driveway by the people who own the road, and it is illegal to knock it down.

      [Okay, *you* come up with a better car analogy]

      • Re:Waiting For Dual (Score:5, Insightful)

        by ScrewMaster ( 602015 ) on Monday December 31, 2007 @10:48AM (#21865440)
        [Okay, *you* come up with a better car analogy]

        Okay, instead of a wall at the bottom of your driveway you have a motorized gate with a numeric keypad. You need a code to open the gate so you can drive your car, but the people who own the road won't give it to you. You could easily download a road-gate-code-cracker, but that's been made illegal.

        • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

          by mpe ( 36238 )
          Okay, instead of a wall at the bottom of your driveway you have a motorized gate with a numeric keypad. You need a code to open the gate so you can drive your car, but the people who own the road won't give it to you. You could easily download a road-gate-code-cracker, but that's been made illegal.

          The good news is that they want to get rid of the keypad. The bad news is that their planned replacement system involves calling them up and explaining why you need to travel. (If you are North of the Equator yo

    • Re:Waiting For Dual (Score:4, Insightful)

      by stewbacca ( 1033764 ) on Monday December 31, 2007 @09:40AM (#21864852)

      if most consumers can't even tell the difference, why should they pay more?
      I don't know what the marketing term is, but there are plenty of people who buy more expensive stuff based on perceived abilities/values/specs, but they wouldn't be able to tell the difference had Consumer Reports/PCMag/Car-and-Driver/HomeTheaterMag/ProPhotographyMag etc. not told them so. I'm guilty of it myself from time-to-time, as well as most of you are, I'm sure. Many consumers aren't comfortable just buying something that is "good enough for me", because they hate the idea that there might be something better out there for the same price. Consumerism is a bitch.
    • I think what could change the entire equation is whether the main HD-DVD supporters (especially Toshiba and NEC) are willing to go for a generous licensing model to make it cheaper to manufacture players and discs, just like what JVC/Panasonic did with the VHS format in the late 1970's to middle 1980's. If they go this route, that could change everything almost overnight.

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by Erwos ( 553607 )
      "Lastly, a HUGE number of consumers can't even tell the difference between DVD and HD quality!"

      I totally disagree - they can tell the difference (from my experience), and I'd be completely shocked if double-blind tests didn't bear this out. The color space and resolution differences alone are _very_ apparent to anyone who's looking at the test material.

      It seems like some people don't get that, just because it's not as large a jump as from VHS (a terrible format) to DVD (a reasonably decent format), that it'

      • Re: (Score:2)

        by Erwos ( 553607 )
        Actually, I'm thinking that should read "that it is a considerable image quality jump".

      • Re:Waiting For Dual (Score:5, Funny)

        by honestmonkey ( 819408 ) on Monday December 31, 2007 @10:12AM (#21865112) Journal
        I don't think your analogy is quite right. VHS is not dogfood. I would say broadcast TV is dogfood. VHS allowed you to play back shows when you wanted, and record things off the TV. So lets say that VHS is a burger. Say a McDonald's burger, one of the cheap ones. DVDs bring that up to a good chicken dish, with a side of pasta and those breadsticks that are soft and warm. HD-DVD or BR might bring it up to lobster, but really, how often do you go have lobster? And that's just it. You go out to have lobster with all the trimmings and a good desert - movies. You don't usually bring home a lobster and cook it because it's a lot of trouble and it's just easier to stick with what's in the fridge. I mean the chicken is already defrosting and you have a can of the pop-n-fresh breadsticks. You've even got a bag of salad. For lobster, you'll need to get out the special plates, and melt some butter - do you even have butter, or just margarine? And your wife isn't a really a big fan of lobster, she'd just as soon have chicken. If she has to cook, she's not even sure how to cook the lobster anyway.

        Mmmmm, breadsticks...

    • Most of us are waiting for inexpensive, dual format (Blueray & HD-DVD) players.

      Thankfully, there's a handful asian companies in Korea who are listening to you : Samsung and LG are slowly introducing such dual player. Now we only have to wait until the price drop enough and no-name constructor join the game. (And maybe, by then, the player will also be compatible with China's variant - EVD? I think...)

      Lastly, a HUGE number of consumers can't even tell the difference between DVD and HD quality! {...} if m

  • The two camps are victims of their own earlier success with DVD. The standard DVDs offered a quantum leap in quality from the picture and sound of VHS videotape

    From Wikipedia:
    In physics, a quantum leap or quantum jump is a change of an electron from one energy state to another within an atom.

    So a quantum leap is a very, very tiny change, usually smaller than a nanometer. If the writer is stupid enough to think a sub-nanometer change means something big, why would one take anything he has to say seri

    • Re:Anyone else hate idiots like this? (Score:5, Informative)

      by gander666 ( 723553 ) on Monday December 31, 2007 @09:25AM (#21864716) Homepage
      I was going to moderate this, but I have to respond. The Wiki article states in "Physics" and is thus correct. However, in general usage, quantum is a discrete shift in value, rather than a minor shift in a continuum. It can be small (as int he physics example), or it can be large. It all depends on the frame of reference, and what you are gaging.

      It is this that I think that the article is referring to (correctly). Being a physics geek, I had to set the record straight.

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by DeeQ ( 1194763 )
      Oh I don't know... Maybe because it was published in the NYtimes?

    • Re:Anyone else hate idiots like this? (Score:5, Informative)

      by mattgoldey ( 753976 ) on Monday December 31, 2007 @09:27AM (#21864732)
      Anyone else hate idiots like Jason1729?

      If you had kept reading that very same Wikipedia page, you would have seen this:

      In the vernacular, the term quantum leap has come to mean an abrupt change or "step change", especially an advance or augmentation. The term dates back to early-to-mid-20th century, coinciding with the discoveries of quantum mechanics. The popular and scientific terms are similar in that both describe a change that happens all at once (revolutionary), rather than gradually over time (evolutionary), but the two uses are different when it comes to the magnitude of the change or advance in question.

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_leap [wikipedia.org]

    • Re: (Score:2, Interesting)

      by jmpeax ( 936370 )
      While a quantum leap may represent a very small change in physics, the idiom "quantum leap" nonetheless means a large advance.

      The only thing worse than language Nazis are the people who think they're qualified to be language Nazis, but are actually just pedants who are lost in misinterpretation and warped logic.
    • "In physics, a quantum leap or quantum jump is a change of an electron from one energy state to another within an atom. "

      Dude, you totally are confused. Here's the Wikipedia definition of Quantum Leap:

      "Quantum Leap is an American science fiction television series that ran for 96 episodes from March 1989 to May 1993 on the NBC network."

      So since it's TV, a "Quantum Leap" is something like "Jumping the Shark". And we all know that sharks are white, and that white is the color of snow on mountains, and mounta

    • Re: (Score:3, Funny)

      by ScrewMaster ( 602015 )
      So a quantum leap is a very, very tiny change, usually smaller than a nanometer.

      Okay, fine. You tell that to Scott Bakula.

  • DVD/HD (Score:3, Interesting)

    by Kenoli ( 934612 ) on Monday December 31, 2007 @09:20AM (#21864688)
    No compelling reasons to upgrades, compelling reasons not to upgrade.

    Sounds familiar. Anyone?

  • Why not support both? (Score:4, Interesting)

    by stewbacca ( 1033764 ) on Monday December 31, 2007 @09:24AM (#21864700)
    Here's a novel idea (FTA): "Warner Brothers releases movies for both systems."

    I guess Warner Bros. actually gets it and is reaching out to the biggest market possible, whereas the rest are picking sides and supporting their pet formats.

    I remember for the longest time certain studios refused to release their movies to DVD because they were trying to push their own, stupid, proprietary systems. They eventualy caved (and I finally got Braveheart on DVD!). I see the same thing happening here.

    For the record, from this casual observer's view, Blu-Ray is doing a much better job in brand recognition. Perhaps it is the catchy name, since HD-DVD sounds more like a spec than it does a product?

  • Generally i think it is true, but there are more people than ever in the bluray and hd-dvd isle at bestbuy. I remember when the blu-ray and Hd-dvd isles were a void of any lifeforms, except myself which is debatable.

    I saw lots of people looking and buying bluray films at bestbuy this christmas. HD-DVD was in the same isle, all you had to do is turn around. Not as many folks there. More were looking at Blu-ray.

    My father bought a bluray player,
    My friends father bought a bluray player.

    I own both format players
    • Your prediction is far too premature.

      HD-DVD still has incredible backing. And the largest retailer in the world, Walmart, recently announced they will only carry HD-DVD in their stores. This "fight" is not ending anytime soon. We need cheap, dual-format players.
      • I said bluray appears to be the winner technology wise. My reasoning is because of the capacity of a bluray disk vs hddvd. Bluray wins with 50GB versus HD-DVD's 30GB disc.

        I know they said they got hd-dvd to 51 Gigs, but from what i understand (and i could be wrong) is that they're not sure it will make it out in the market due to capability problems. It was more of a PR stunt than a reality.

    • I always think it's the name that sells. People like "blu" which translates to "blue". Colorful, gimmicky. A name is everything. Just as things starting with V (vhs) always sound cooler than B (betamax).

      But wait... Blu-ray starts with B, oh yea. I guess color imagery trumps typography.

      • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

        by nahdude812 ( 88157 ) *
        On a superficial level I'd lean toward HD-DVD. I already know DVD's, and I already know HD. This is just a coupling of concepts with which I am already familiar. Bluray though, what is that, what does it do? Is my stuff compatible with it? Superficially speaking, HD-DVD sounds more comfortable, and there is psychologically less chance that I'll end up with an expensive toy that is not compatible with the rest of my system.

  • I can testify to that.... (Score:5, Interesting)

    by lena_10326 ( 1100441 ) on Monday December 31, 2007 @09:25AM (#21864714) Homepage
    I have the 50" Panasonic plasma--bought it last year. There's no impetus for me to get an HD player because when I sit 15 feet away, standard DVD quality is good enough. Sure, I'd like better, I just don't want to pay a ton for it. I appear to fit inside the bell curve. It's comfy in here...

    So, I wait. Wait and see.

  • I did it by accident (Score:5, Funny)

    by DoofusOfDeath ( 636671 ) on Monday December 31, 2007 @09:27AM (#21864728)
    I'm sure I'm in the minority here, but...

    I needed to do Linux development on a Cell processor, so I picked up a PS/3 and a 24" LCD monitor. At the time I thought that I needed an HDCP-compatible monitor in order to use the PS/3 in high-res mode. (I didn't realize that you only need a HDCP-enabled monitor if you want to watch Blue-Ray movies at high-res.)

    So I accidentally joined the small group of people with a high-def setup. Oops.
    • At the time I thought that I needed an HDCP-compatible monitor in order to use the PS/3 in high-res mode. (I didn't realize that you only need a HDCP-enabled monitor if you want to watch Blue-Ray movies at high-res.)

      You can watch Blu-Ray movies from a PS3 just fine in HD over the component or plain DVI outputs (analog or no HDCP). The only thing that doesn't do Hi-Def over that connection is upscaling normal DVD's.
  • The article fails to mention my reason for avoiding a new format: I do not want the extra features that the manufacturers put into the players., including:
    1) DRM
    2) The ability for the players to "phone home".
    3) Any other "feature" that makes it more difficult for the consumer. By this I mean anything that forces the user to do something he does not want to like the PUOPs on standard DVDs. You can be forced to watch previews when you start a disk without having the option to skip forward or advance the track

    • Re:How about "Phoning Home" and DRM? (Score:5, Insightful)

      by jamesh ( 87723 ) on Monday December 31, 2007 @09:46AM (#21864912)

      By this I mean anything that forces the user to do something he does not want to like the PUOPs on standard DVDs. You can be forced to watch previews when you start a disk without having the option to skip forward or advance the track. I expect HD and Blu Ray to be worse in this matter.


      The kids got a stack of DVD's for Christmas. I'm bordering on _FURIOUS_ that on some of them we have to sit through about 3 minutes of previews and "You wouldn't steal a car... video piracy is stealing" warnings. Honestly... it's crap like that that makes me want to just download instead of purchasing. Why on earth should someone who's actually doing what the recording industry wants and buying instead of stealing be the one who has to sit through the warnings and ads???

      • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

        by rho ( 6063 )

        On kids' DVDs no less. They're tugging at your pants, "I wanna watch Belle and Beast!" You're trying to skip through FBI warnings and whatnot, they're slowing having a meltdown.

        I think the CyberHome DVD player my sister has ($30 from RadioShack *last Christmas*) is superior to my Pioneer. Hers has an Autoplay feature that automatically skips ahead to the biggest chunk of video and starts playing. Which is, usually, the movie. Right now I'm thinking of ripping the kiddie DVDs and re-burning them as simple

      • I've not seen a DVD actually lock out the "menu" button for those previews, "menu" skips the player to the DVD's menu. Are you just sitting through them because you don't know to try something?

      • Re: (Score:2)

        by Ours ( 596171 )
        I love that "piss off the honest customer" tactic. Makes me feel like I should have downloaded the movie instead of being stupid and coming up with the bright idea of buying it and then been subjected to propaganda like I did something wrong. They may just as well stick a "go to piratebay and get this movie" add or something.
        Maybe somebody at the MPAA was convinced that when you rip a DVD, you get the whole thing and "pirates" release the movie with propaganda and all.
      • Honestly... it's crap like that that makes me want to just download instead of purchasing.

        The fact that media companies think they can control what I consume by shoving ads/branding/corporate-ethics-of-the-day just ensures that I'll look elsewhere. I'm not sure if media companies understand how obvious that is - or perhaps they believe they're entitled to piss me off, and therefore it's a "moral" issue not grounded in the reality of what people actually do.

        To sumerise the argument: corporate greed is

      • Re:How about "Phoning Home" and DRM? (Score:5, Interesting)

        by corsec67 ( 627446 ) on Monday December 31, 2007 @12:02PM (#21866294) Homepage Journal
        Then you need a Better DVD player [slashdot.org], one that doesn't prevent you from skipping that stuff.

  • Killing their customer base (Score:5, Insightful)

    by mulhollandj ( 807571 ) on Monday December 31, 2007 @09:30AM (#21864762)
    How many are staying out of this because they don't like the copyright 'protection' which really hurts the functionality and ends up hurting the experience of legitimate users?

    • Re:Killing their customer base (Score:5, Insightful)

      by stewbacca ( 1033764 ) on Monday December 31, 2007 @09:48AM (#21864930)
      I assure you, only a small group of slashdot users think like this. Name ONE non-techie family member or friend of yours that has ever ripped a DVD to a computer for the "experience of legitimate users".

    • How many are staying out of this because they don't like the copyright 'protection' which really hurts the functionality and ends up hurting the experience of legitimate users?

      On slashdot these may be real concerns, but for most of the populace I bet this is a non-issue. I am reasonably tech savvy, but have never been interested in ripping any DVDs, watching them on my computer, etc. I think most of us sheeple are pretty much the same, in that we watch our DVDs once or twice and then enjoy the warm, fuzzy feeling of knowing that it is taking up space in the media center.

  • Reasons I haven't jumped in (Score:5, Interesting)

    by cheebie ( 459397 ) on Monday December 31, 2007 @09:33AM (#21864786)
    The jump from VHS to DVD bought be a better picture, better durability, much greater convenience, cheaper prices (eventually), more variety, and there was only one format so I didn't have to worry about buying a DVD player only to have it turn into a blinking boat anchor. It cost me the ability to record since I wouldn't shell out for a DVD burner, but I found I didn't miss it all that much.

    The jump from DVD to High-Def DVD will buy me a better picture, and that's it. And I get to worry that I'll chose the wrong format and it will be worthless in 2 years. The dual format ones are still too expensive.

    So, I wait for the dust to settle before I toss more money into the bottomless technological gizmo pit.

  • The Real Problem (Score:3, Insightful)

    by aussie_a ( 778472 ) on Monday December 31, 2007 @09:35AM (#21864796) Journal
    The real problem is everyone is worried about which one will become Beta and which will become VHS that only the extreme early adopters and easily swayed have bought into one. I've had salesmen specifically tell me not to buy Blue-Ray or HDDVD until one of them wins the war. Them telling people this costs them money, and yet they continue to do it.
    • The real problem is everyone is worried about which one will become Beta and which will become VHS that only the extreme early adopters and easily swayed have bought into one. I've had salesmen specifically tell me not to buy Blue-Ray or HDDVD until one of them wins the war. Them telling people this costs them money, and yet they continue to do it.

      From what I've seen, the war is not so much VHS vs Betamax. Both those formats got great traction. With the adoption rates against the established standards, th

  • One company could change everything: (Score:3, Interesting)

    by MtViewGuy ( 197597 ) on Monday December 31, 2007 @09:36AM (#21864816)
    Disney.

    Disney's DVD retail business is quite profitable, and they sell a LOT of DVD's for the family market, especially given the large number of animated features Disney has done since Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs in 1937. While Disney is firmly in the Blu-Ray camp right now, I'm sure they are aware of the rapid drop in the price of HD-DVD players and they could easily jump into the HD-DVD market (my guess in around six months). Since most HD-DVD discs are encoded with the VC-1 or AVC (H.264) format, there is no real need to use the extra capacity of Blu-Ray discs, and with the new 51 GB triple-layer discs, HD-DVD has erased the Blu-Ray 50 GB storage capacity advantage.

    Besides Disney, if Toshiba can lower the licensing fees for the HD-DVD format, that could interest companies now selling only Blu-Ray discs to support HD-DVD. After all, it was the generous licensing requirements for VHS that allowed VHS to overtake Sony's Beta format, and Toshiba could easily do the same against the Sony-supported Blu-Ray format. We will find out what happens at the Consumer Electronics Show in January 2008 which side will take the initiative to expand its presence.

    By the way, don't expect people to download high-definition movies on a large scale until broadband speeds become vastly faster than now; downloading a single movie that could be as large as 15 GB is a pretty daunting task even with Verizon's FIOS fiber-optic broadband system.
  • I picked up one of those cheap upconverter DVD players recently. I was a little skeptical, but I thought I would benefit from all the industry development, which pulls all the once exotic features down into the low end.

    After using it for less than two days i boxed it up and went back to my 5 year old Panasonic RP56 Progressive Scan DVD player. The picture was much better on the RP56 than on the cheapie upconverter. The general usability and responsiveness was also much worse on the cheap upconverter.

  • Well (Score:2, Flamebait)

    by ilovegeorgebush ( 923173 )
    The average consumer would say the following.

    Bluray: Why would I spend hundreds of pounds on a technology that would render my DVD collection (of around 100 DVDs) obsolete with no real gain? Will my TV be compatible?

    HD-DVD: My existing collection is compatible, great. Now, let's look at the price....ouch.

    I'm sitting it out until I can get a HD-DVD player from the web for less than 100 quid. Why do Sony insist on making formats that are incompatible with others? They've lost before (Mini-disc, which
    • Doesn't the average consumer still cling to VHS tapes as being "good enough"?

    • Re:Well (Score:5, Informative)

      by bilbravo ( 763359 ) on Monday December 31, 2007 @10:46AM (#21865418) Homepage
      I had to comment on this just to set things straight. Blu-Ray does not render your DVD collection useless anymore than HD-DVD does... why? Because both play DVDs. HD-DVD is simply a moniker for the new format because it is part of the DVD consortium.

      Repeat: Blu-Ray players play DVDs just the same as HD-DVD players do. The only imcompatibility is that Blu-Ray players will not play HD-DVD and HD-DVD will not player Blu-Ray.

      My apologies if this is not what you meant, but it is how I read it and want to avoid others making the same mistake.
  • The 30 December 2007 Dallas Morning News featured an informative letter (I can't find a link to an online version of the letter; sorry) replying to an earlier DMN article about the DVD format wars. One of the major points of the letter was that, essentially, unless one has a very large-screen HDTV, the upconversion of conventional DVDs is so good that it's not worth paying the premium of the HD-DVD or Blu-Ray disks. Unless the industry realizes it can't win while those higher prices exist, the vast majority

  • HD versus DVD (Score:4, Interesting)

    by Wowsers ( 1151731 ) on Monday December 31, 2007 @09:46AM (#21864914) Journal
    - HiDef is expensive... tick
    - HiDef is fighting with HiDef*... tick
    - HiDef for the average user gives no gain... tick
    - HiDef cannot be (in theory) copied to your MP3 player to watch the movie on the player... tick
    - For computers, HiDef only works on that abomination called Vista... tick
    - HiDef disks (pressed or recordable) are expensive... tick
    - One HiDef format is backed by Microsoft... tick
    - Neither HiDef format has a "cool" name... tick

    Now with all those ticks, let's all rush out and buy into the HD format.

    Or, you could stick to what you have now, and rip** the DVD for your MP3 player to watch on, not have to get into the whole "this cable is not compatible with this type of HD content" crap, not get into "you machine thinks you're really a hacker and your new hardware has decided to offer you shitty vision" instead of what you paid for, not have to worry about full HD pixel ratios or interlaced / progressive video, and not have producers enforce region coding (cartel protection).

    * I bought superior Betamax, don't want that kinda purchase again.
    ** in some places legally.
  • I mean, how many PS3's sold for xmas? Costco is selling 1080p TVs for $1000. I think 2008 is going to be the tipping point for a lot of people.

  • I could use a 25 GB recordable format. It's not just a slight incremental upgrade from 4.7 GB DVDs.

    The new formats are a reason why I decided against upgrading my 4-year old PATA DVD burner -- there's little point in buying a slightly faster drive for the same old format. I'm waiting for Blu-ray burners to become a little more affordable and ubiquitous.

  • It's 1080P plus you get 10 free HD-DVDs.

  • Of course people are sitting this one out - no one wants to be the sucker who pays twice over for their HD movies.

    They briefly mention the Betamax vs. VHS format war of the 80s in the article. I was around for that particular battle, and I remember my dad coming home with a brand new, shiny, expensive betamax machine. Six months later, it was obsolete and we couldn't find videotapes for the damned thing, so we had to go buy another brand new, shiny, expensive VHS machine.

    Who wants to spend a small fortune o

  • The standard DVDs offered a quantum leap in quality from the picture and sound of VHS videotape, and for many that was more than adequate.
    I can remember people saying the exact same thing about DVD. "Joe Sixpack is perfectly happy with VHS. Why would he switch to DVD?" The difference this time isn't the improvement in quality (it's very real to anyone who isn't blind) but the format war that's confusing consumers.
  • But it's still garbage-in, garbage-out.

    If you're going to complain about how cookie-cutter movies these days are, then it behooves you to not give the labels any money until they... well... make something original.

  • Put the CEO and top executives of Sony and Toshiba in a locked room with a water fountain and a single bathroom/toilet available. Slide pizza under the door every day with random toppings. Let them out only after they have decided which format is the one.

  • The adoption problems are manifold (Score:3, Interesting)

    by Phybersyk0 ( 513618 ) <phybersyko@NOspaM.stormdesign.org> on Monday December 31, 2007 @10:17AM (#21865166)
    The adoption problems are manifold:

    1.) 16:9 widescreen displays are still not pervasive enough to warrant upgrades. (This will change in 2009 after analog broadcast is dead) (My 60 year old mom hates "those black bars" on the top and bottom of the 4:3 display - she's gonna freak when there are "those grey bars" on the sides!)

    2.) Cost. Retailers are dumping fairly recent DVD's for as little as $5.00 per disc. HD-DVD & Blu-Ray are easily 6-7 times that.

    3.) Format confusion. Blu-Ray is being marketed as "Blu-Ray HiDef" and HD-DVD's are also marketed as "HiDef" i.e. "Harry Potter & The Order of the Phoenix - on DVD and HiDef" (There isn't a Blu-Ray version available yet).

    4.) HD-DVD has combo discs (i.e.: Harry Potter, above) that will work on current DVD players as well as HD players - this allows the consumer to continue to add to their library of movies, while defraying the cost of hardware upgrade into the future. Blu-Ray forces you into expensive gear NOW in order to watch the film you've just bought.

    Some advice:
    Until this shit gets sorted out, the people who currently have large libraries (i'm thinking 200+ DVD's) are not going to offload their old movies and upgrade their films to HD-DVD/Blu-Ray. It's time for those "Proof of Purchase" coupon-looking things in most DVD packages to be useful. Furthermore, If Sony wants to sell more BRD players they need to cut their costs in half and stop trying to bundle their PS3 console with the player. Not everybody wants to play video games. Microsoft hedged their bets and made the HD-DVD an add-on component, which, though not very attractive inside the t.v. cabinet, provides function for VERY low cost. (I got mine + Heroes Season 1 on HD-DVD for about $180)
  • I don't see any reason to bother switching to the new disk formats- either one. My DVD collection is pretty expansive and I don't want to have to replace them. Also, I don't have a high-def TV (hell, my friends have a nice wide-screen one and it still shows the black bars on wide-screen movies... no idea why). The fact that there is still 2 main formats battling it out, makes it even more unattractive for me to choose one and risk choosing the eventual loser. Not to mention the extra cost. Though in my opi
  • Betamax, DAT, MiniDisc, Digital8, MemoryStick, etc, etc.

    I'm almost serious in thinking "Bluray will loose because it is Sony". I don't know *why* sony always looses, but I can't think of one example where there were multiple standards and Sony won (game-consoles don't count as they are not standards).

    All that said: I've in the "wait and see" crowd myself. I'm less worried about the players than investing in a media library that will self-obsolete. The desire for better quality created my LaserDisc collectio

  • Most (older) customers have no reason for HD (Score:5, Interesting)

    by Opportunist ( 166417 ) on Monday December 31, 2007 @10:25AM (#21865226)
    Cue my dad.

    He's a war movie fan. Especially 2nd World War. From Tora Tora Tora to Midway, from Battle of Britain to One Bridge too far, he has them all. He wants them all. He watches them all. When DVD came out, he was one of the first to go and get a DVD player, because now his previous movies would never go grainy from being watched a million times over.

    Now, his movies have been made in the 60s and maybe 70s. Sound? Mono. MAYBE stereo. 5.1? C'mon, be sensible. Film quality? At DVD level you already saw the flaws, why bother with HD?

    For him, there is no reason at all to even consider HD. Whether HDDVD or BluRay is moot for him, he's happy with his DVD.

    And that's another problem. When someone is a fan of 60s movie, or of a movie star from the pre-80s era, he simply does not benefit from HD.
  • Never mind the cost of the players. The cost of bona fide hi-def media is substantially more expensive than their DVD counterparts. I would never replace movies I already own, but spending 50% more on a new title just to get it in some hi-def format that might turn out to be a flash in the pan is what is holding me back. I'll stick with my mid-range upconverting 1080p DVD player for now.

    Cheers,

  • And the content is much more expensive. (Score:3, Informative)

    by Maxo-Texas ( 864189 ) on Monday December 31, 2007 @10:52AM (#21865464)
    Blu-Ray/HD, $29
    Same on DVD $16

    Three to six months later
    Blu-Ray/HD, $25
    Same on DVD $10

  • Astounding Breakthrough in Signal Processing (Score:3, Insightful)

    by skywire ( 469351 ) * on Monday December 31, 2007 @01:55PM (#21867714)
    DVD players that can convert images to near high-definition quality can be found for under $100
    Chinese dvd player manufacturers have managed to find a way to violate the laws of logic and extract more information than is present in a signal? I must have missed the headline.

  • I have good news for all of you. (Score:3, Funny)

    by foxtrot ( 14140 ) on Monday December 31, 2007 @01:55PM (#21867716)
    Blu-ray will win; you can go out and buy a Blu-ray player and all your favorite movies without worry. No, it has nothing to do with whether or not they're technically superior, or which studios are backing Blu-ray. It's not gonna win because everyone who bought a Playstation 3 got one built in, it's not going to win because the marketing folks are smarter, or anything like that. It's even simpler:

    I bought an HD-DVD player.

    -F

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