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Earth Science

North Pole Ice On Track To Melt By September? 978

phobos13013 writes "Recently released evidence is showing the North Pole ice is melting at the highest rate ever recorded. As a result, the Pole may be completely ice-free at the surface and composed of nothing but open water by September. As reported in September of last year, the Northwest Passage was ice-free for the first time known to man. The implications of this, as well as the causes, are still being debated. Are global warming experts just short-sighted alarmists? Are we heading for a global ice age? Or is the increase in global mean temperature having an effect on our planet?"
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North Pole Ice On Track To Melt By September?

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  • by AltGrendel ( 175092 ) <ag-slashdot.exit0@us> on Friday June 27, 2008 @03:13PM (#23971927) Homepage
    The Polar Bears. No place to go any more.
  • 1421 (Score:1, Insightful)

    by baldass_newbie ( 136609 ) on Friday June 27, 2008 @03:15PM (#23971961) Homepage Journal

    Just read a great book about China's 'discovery' of the America around 1421 [1421.tv] and they were able to get their junks around Greenland, a feat not otherwise possible, but it was warm that year.
    No idea how many SUVs were on the road back then, so I wonder how we can compare CO2 emissions?

  • by Kohath ( 38547 ) on Friday June 27, 2008 @03:16PM (#23971977)

    This is not news. This is a prediction that there might be news in September.

    If it doesn't happen, will we get an apology for misleading us?

  • Re:From TFA (Score:4, Insightful)

    by Anonymous Coward on Friday June 27, 2008 @03:25PM (#23972155)

    The climate changes we are experiencing will likely take millions of lives. Few people realize how easily diseases like malaria might thrive if we go up even one or two degrees in average temperatures. Florida already has a few cases of malaria every year. The fear that other tropical plagues might become common inside the US mainland is very real.

  • by mmell ( 832646 ) on Friday June 27, 2008 @03:31PM (#23972277)
    CO2 emissions from human activities (pollution)? Or . . .

    Changes in solar energy output (the "ringing" of the Sun)? Or . . .

    Naturally occuring changes in the planetary atmosphere (as has happened before on this planet)? Or . . .

    Naturally occuring changes in the planetary hydrosphere (as has also happened before on this planet)? Or . . .

    Al Gore's incessant whining about greenhouse gasses (now there's a bunch of hot air!)? Or . . .

    But you get the point - when we at least have an educated guess as to the 'why' (and if that 'why' comes back to human activity on the planet), then I'll consider this more than an interesting possibility.

  • Yeah - bullshit (Score:3, Insightful)

    by Anonymous Coward on Friday June 27, 2008 @03:31PM (#23972279)

    Yeah, because everybody knows that the person who *really* knows about climate science is a bad fiction writer.

  • Re:Natural? (Score:5, Insightful)

    by amRadioHed ( 463061 ) on Friday June 27, 2008 @03:34PM (#23972319)

    Yes. No one credible believes that we are entirely responsible for the climate change, on the other hand no one credible disputes that we are contributing to it. No matter what the cause, the increased global temperature is a bad thing for us and thus it is in our best interest to stop contributing to the change ASAP.

  • Re:Natural? (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Gat0r30y ( 957941 ) on Friday June 27, 2008 @03:34PM (#23972329) Homepage Journal
    You are probably right, man made global warming is just a vast conspiracy engineered to reduce pollution, achieve energy independence, secure our natural resources, and rile up oil executives.
  • Re:bullshit (Score:5, Insightful)

    by The Warlock ( 701535 ) on Friday June 27, 2008 @03:37PM (#23972369)

    Ah, Chrichton. Because writing Jurassic Park is the only scientific credential that actually matters.

    With all due respect, he's got an M.D., he's not a climatologist. I don't call a plumber when I'm sick; I don't ask an M.D.'s opinion on climate change.

  • Re:Finally (Score:5, Insightful)

    by tomtomtom777 ( 1148633 ) on Friday June 27, 2008 @03:38PM (#23972393) Homepage

    It's the sound of that joke going way over your head.

    Your remark interests me cause as a relative new slashdot member, I noticed that one of the main things I love about the threads here is the wonderful intermixing between jokes, facts, irony, wisdom and sarcasm.

    Your reasonably funny joke, gave someone else the opportunity to spread a fact he's been sitting on for years. Besides all the funny guys, there are a lot of smart people dwelling here, and I for one welcome the knowledge especially in this intermixed way.

    In other words. Take it easy..

  • by thule ( 9041 ) on Friday June 27, 2008 @03:42PM (#23972447) Homepage

    Ummm... well volcanoes put a lot of junk into the air all by themselves. That includes underwater ones.

    Besides, we don't know for sure that CO2 is the main reason for the warming we've seen. The warming trend has been levelling off for the past few years. It also doesn't explain why there is uneven warming or why Antarctic ice continues to grow.

  • by Anonymous Brave Guy ( 457657 ) on Friday June 27, 2008 @03:42PM (#23972457)

    Anyone who believes this isn't a man-made disaster has their speaking privileges taken away. Put on your dunce caps, go sit in the corner and shut the f&*k up.

    Yes, absolutely. Instead of believing the propaganda from Big Oil that nothing is wrong, we should instead believe in the propaganda from political interests attempting to divert our attention from other matters and scientific communities whose funding is dependent on the support of those political interests that our doom is upon us and we must stop doing anything.

    In no way will this turn out to be the same as most issues in popular science, where there is an underlying trend that we should consider changing, but whose likely effects will not be fully understood without much more research and in any case will occur subtly over a period of many years.

  • Re:Finally (Score:3, Insightful)

    by Arcanis the Rogue ( 910060 ) on Friday June 27, 2008 @03:43PM (#23972477) Homepage

    I'm not the original Anonymous Coward, I'm just being an asshat.

  • Comment removed (Score:4, Insightful)

    by account_deleted ( 4530225 ) on Friday June 27, 2008 @03:48PM (#23972555)
    Comment removed based on user account deletion
  • by Anonymous Coward on Friday June 27, 2008 @03:49PM (#23972559)

    Yeah. Better to sit on your ass and do nothing until you have 100% proof and it's too late to bother changing your ways anyway. That's the spirit. If a car is coming towards you at 100 miles an hour and at 50ft away a phycisist says "There's a very good chance that car isn't going to stop in time, maybe you should move out of the way" do you tell him you want to be 100% sure before you move?

  • Re:bullshit (Score:5, Insightful)

    by stewbacca ( 1033764 ) on Friday June 27, 2008 @03:50PM (#23972579)

    I don't call a plumber when I'm sick; I don't ask an M.D.'s opinion on climate change.

    Then please, please tell me why anyone thinks Al Gore is remotely relevant on the issue of climate change!!!

  • Re:bullshit (Score:4, Insightful)

    by The Warlock ( 701535 ) on Friday June 27, 2008 @03:55PM (#23972663)

    Fuck if I know. I guess the media likes people with name recognition. "This guy wrote Jurassic Park, he must know what he's talking about!" "Yeah, well, this guy used to be Vice President! He must know what he's talking about even more!"

    It's the fucking name-obsessed news media.

  • by Anonymous Coward on Friday June 27, 2008 @03:56PM (#23972679)

    I love how they have reclassified CO2 as pollution when it's basically plant food.

  • Re:1421 (Score:3, Insightful)

    by neurojab ( 15737 ) on Friday June 27, 2008 @03:58PM (#23972703)

    >Until somebody can find more proof to back up the 1421 claim, it is an undecidable as to its veracity.

    Undecidable? Hm... If I claim to be the true King of Spain without a shred of proof, is that equally undecidable?

    Sorry, but as intriguing as it may be, the 1421 "theory" is just a scam to make money on books.

  • by LighterShadeOfBlack ( 1011407 ) on Friday June 27, 2008 @03:58PM (#23972729) Homepage

    Yes, absolutely. Instead of believing the propaganda from Big Oil that nothing is wrong, we should instead believe in the propaganda from political interests attempting to divert our attention from other matters and scientific communities whose funding is dependent on the support of those political interests that our doom is upon us and we must stop doing anything.

    Global warming has been essentially 'known' (just not widely acknowledged) for as long as I've been alive. Which political interest do you think has been around for over 25 years making this "propaganda"? And why would they refuse to acknowledge it for so long if it was to their benefit? And which political interest spans the globe? Yeah, newsflash genius, this 'global warming' thing isn't specific to America.

    In no way will this turn out to be the same as most issues in popular science, where there is an underlying trend that we should consider changing, but whose likely effects will not be fully understood without much more research and in any case will occur subtly over a period of many years.

    Yeah. Better to wait and see. Then in 50 years when it's too late you can say "oh shit I guess it's time to turn my lights off when I'm not in a room and stop driving a 1 tonne truck to move 100 metres". Better to pretend the problem isn't there until it directly and irrefutably affects you and it becomes more inconvenient for you personally to not accept it's existence than to ignore it. Then you'll be bitching about how it was all covered up for so many years and they should have done more to warn you.

  • Re:Natural? (Score:5, Insightful)

    by mckorr ( 1274964 ) on Friday June 27, 2008 @03:59PM (#23972739) Homepage
    Not only that, but leaving the question of climate change aside, doesn't "green" make sense?

    Adding insulation, better windows, more efficient air conditioner, florescent lights, and so on makes my home more valuable. It also reduces my electric bill, which means more money in my pocket. Same for cars. Less pollution is a side effect, albeit a good one. More to the point it lowers my gasoline consumption, again, more money in my pocket. And I happen to like clean air, so bonus!

    Argue climate change all you want, green makes sense, if only from an economic standpoint. And why would anyone be against clean air and water?

  • Re:Yeah - bullshit (Score:3, Insightful)

    by mhall119 ( 1035984 ) on Friday June 27, 2008 @04:02PM (#23972819) Homepage Journal

    His early stuff wasn't bad.

  • Re:bullshit (Score:5, Insightful)

    by raftpeople ( 844215 ) on Friday June 27, 2008 @04:02PM (#23972821)
    I have some serious questions for you:
    1) Do you believe that Michael Crichton has information that the climate scientists do not?
    2) Do you believe Michael Crichton is smarter than the climate scientists and better able to interpret the data?
    3) If either of these is true, what leads you to believe this?
  • by Darkness404 ( 1287218 ) on Friday June 27, 2008 @04:03PM (#23972835)
    Hmmm... Well considering that last winter was one of the coldest on record... And it snowed just about every other day... I think it will still be a sport. Global warming does not exist. Local warming does. All global warming is, is taken out of proportion local warming.
  • Re:bullshit (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Penguinisto ( 415985 ) on Friday June 27, 2008 @04:04PM (#23972857) Journal

    True... now here's the converse: Al Gore is no climatologist, either - but that didn't stop him from writing a book and being pointed at as some sort of authority on climate by the populace at large.


    Not trying to pick a debate, but I do want to point out something.


    It doesn't require any sort of degree to use logic in order to take what's out there data-wise, and form a hypothesis (or opinion) that can withstand scrutiny. All that is required is logical skill, intellect, a lot of research, a little wisdom, and patience enough to see the argument (pro or con) come together.


    I honestly don't care about who advances the opinion, I care about the logical progression of the argument. I also care about whether or not the supporting facts are as complete as possible, in context, and not in disregard of facts which oppose the conclusion. See also the reasons why ad hominem and appeals to authority are counted as fallacious.

    /P

  • by Koiu Lpoi ( 632570 ) <koiulpoiNO@SPAMgmail.com> on Friday June 27, 2008 @04:04PM (#23972859)
    The "why" matters? Anyone worth their salt in the field will tell you that, no, humans are far from the only cause, but we're certainly contributing. And, in the end, the why doesn't matter at all - what matters is, if things keep going the way they are, humanity is going to die off. I happen to think that's something worth changing, our fault or not.
  • by Darkness404 ( 1287218 ) on Friday June 27, 2008 @04:11PM (#23972975)

    It does contain news - the news that the current melting rate of the polar ice is the highest recorded.



    Yah the highest recorded in what? The 100 years max we have been keeping tabs on melting polar ice?

  • Re:bullshit (Score:2, Insightful)

    by boxlight ( 928484 ) on Friday June 27, 2008 @04:12PM (#23972995)
    1) It's not having access to the information, it's how it's being interpreted. These climatologists you speak of think they understand and can control a complex system like the world's climate. Crichton is correct that complex systems are not simple and cannot controlled.

    2) Yes.

    3) Watch the video, he explains it better than I can:

    http://www.michaelcrichton.com/video-speeches-independent.html [michaelcrichton.com]

    and also this: http://www.michaelcrichton.com/video-charlierose-2-17-07.html [michaelcrichton.com]

  • by fm6 ( 162816 ) on Friday June 27, 2008 @04:16PM (#23973073) Homepage Journal

    Jeez, this is the most asinine thread I've ever read. We start with some tasteless jokes about dying animals and end up with the argument that it's all no big deal because a little coastal flooding now and then is good. Let's not deal with the hard stuff, like the extinction of thousands of species, the loss of cropland, the reversal of the carbon cycle, increase in catastrophic weather, and the faint (but real) possibility that the whole thing will cycle out of control and render the planet uninhabitable. No, that would require giving up some smugness. And we at Slashdot value our smugness!

  • by 93 Escort Wagon ( 326346 ) on Friday June 27, 2008 @04:20PM (#23973181)

    Those seals are not radial! They exhibit bilateral symmetry!

    Note: the above is a marine biology joke. If you have not majored in Marine Biology, please go back to college and complete enough courses until the above is funny in context.

    Okay, but what about those of us who get it but just don't find it funny?

  • Re:From TFA (Score:2, Insightful)

    by electrosoccertux ( 874415 ) on Friday June 27, 2008 @04:22PM (#23973209)

    30 years ago when my parents were in school they were saying we're headed to another Ice age.

    I still haven't seen any definitive evidence that we're not in a cycle. Our sample time is far too short.

  • by z-j-y ( 1056250 ) on Friday June 27, 2008 @04:29PM (#23973349)

    Global Warming is unfalsifiable. No matter what happens, the experts will find it supporting global warming. Can they give us ONE possible event that can falsify Global Warming? Nope. Can you imagine any event that could convince the experts to drop their theory? Nope.

  • Re:From TFA (Score:2, Insightful)

    by lostokie ( 1229804 ) on Friday June 27, 2008 @04:29PM (#23973367)
    They did about 50 years ago.
  • by Anonymous Brave Guy ( 457657 ) on Friday June 27, 2008 @04:31PM (#23973419)

    If you truly think that modern "science" isn't influenced at all by politics, you really need to read about what happened behind the scenes before that IPCC report was published. You could start by looking at the legal action some of the scientists named as contributors took to try to get their names removed because they didn't want to be associated with it. Then you could look at the funding arrangements for the strongest supporters.

    I'm not saying the phenomenon of global warming is completely made up. I'm not saying we shouldn't be watching what's happening, considering our role in it, and adjusting our behaviour if necessary. Nowhere did I say any of these things, despite what several knee-jerk respondents seem to think I wrote.

    What I am saying is that we shouldn't panic over every little story about something this year being different to something last year, and go all hyper as if the world is about to end. As others have noted, the possibility of global warming has been on the scientific radar for decades. If it is such a great and immediate threat to humanity, the scientific community has been remarkably restrained for an awfully long time given that suddenly this is the top item on the agenda and they are falling over themselves to tell us how much trouble we are in. The science didn't change that quickly; remember, the IPCC report was essentially a huge survey paper, not a whole load of original research that told us we'd been off by orders of magnitude in our previous knowledge and modelling or something. What changed quickly was the politics.

  • by sumdumass ( 711423 ) on Friday June 27, 2008 @04:33PM (#23973451) Journal

    Any reasonable person quickly realizes there will be no ice to "push" if it's all gone in the center. Models that have not predicted the rapidity of ice loss need to be recalibrated as do politicians who deny global warming and it's impact. The alarmists are alarmingly correct.

    Are you sure that changing models to match what your seeing will disclose the cause? I mean what about all the volcanos erupting [sciencedaily.com] in unusual ways in the artic?

  • by Anonymous Coward on Friday June 27, 2008 @04:34PM (#23973455)

    Jeez, this is the most asinine thread I've ever read. We start with some tasteless jokes about dying animals and end up with the argument that it's all no big deal because a little coastal flooding now and then is good.

    This was no mere dumb Slashdot thread. What you just observed is all the thought and intellect and serious debate that goes into any global warming deniers meeting. The next step is for them to provide their insightful report to the Bush government, turn up the A/C and wait for their checks from the oil companies to roll in.

  • by stmfreak ( 230369 ) <stmfreak@@@gmail...com> on Friday June 27, 2008 @04:40PM (#23973557) Journal

    Anyone who believes this isn't a man-made disaster ... shut the f&*k up.

    Alternatively, any one who would like to stop hearing opposing view points, feel free to close the browser.

    It's worth repeating, historically, the mob is often, if not always, wrong. Below is an excerpt from a speech that is well worth reading for an historical perspective:

    http://www.crichton-official.com/speech-alienscauseglobalwarming.html [crichton-official.com]

    In addition, let me remind you that the track record of the consensus is nothing to be proud of. Let's review a few cases.

    In past centuries, the greatest killer of women was fever following childbirth . One woman in six died of this fever. In 1795, Alexander Gordon of Aberdeen suggested that the fevers were infectious processes, and he was able to cure them. The consensus said no. In 1843, Oliver Wendell Holmes claimed puerperal fever was contagious, and presented compelling evidence. The consensus said no. In 1849, Semmelweiss demonstrated that sanitary techniques virtually eliminated puerperal fever in hospitals under his management. The consensus said he was a Jew, ignored him, and dismissed him from his post. There was in fact no agreement on puerperal fever until the start of the twentieth century. Thus the consensus took one hundred and twenty five years to arrive at the right conclusion despite the efforts of the prominent "skeptics" around the world, skeptics who were demeaned and ignored. And despite the constant ongoing deaths of women.

    The argument can easily be made that over the last ten to twenty years we have moved from a consensus of there-is-no-warming to a consensus of global-warming. One might argue that a few determined scientists with excellent data managed this swing in just a few short years.

    But the argument can also be made that the consensus prior to global-warming was not there-is-no-warming, but rather global-cooling and trying to drive policy to prevent the coming ice age. These people have a poor track record with predictions, but always seem ready with recommendations for how to behave.

    Only history will prove them right or wrong. Prior to that, we are just running around with our hands in the air like chicken-little and demanding that massive works are undertaken to shore up the sky. Had we done this for global-cooling in the 1970s, we would have wasted a lot of money and resources.

    I would suggest that the global warming crowd make a track of predictions for average surface, ocean and atmospheric temperatures for the next ten years. They should be able to predict the average within a margin of error EACH year on the way to that goal. If they can select the measurement criteria and firmly state their predictions... then we can observe their accuracy and react accordingly as the reality of the situation unfolds.

    Up until now, all they've done is move the target.

  • by rumblin'rabbit ( 711865 ) on Friday June 27, 2008 @04:44PM (#23973633) Journal
    I was referring to the very specific claim that the north pole ice would melt by September of this year. Current data doesn't support it.

    As to whether the arctic ice cap has been decreasing over many years, that is supported by the data.
  • by semiotec ( 948062 ) on Friday June 27, 2008 @04:49PM (#23973719)

    "remarkably restrained for an awfully long time"?

    Hahahahahaha!

    from the summary:
    "Recent evidence released is showing the North Pole ice is melting at the highest rate ever recorded. As a result, the Pole may be completely ice-free at the surface and composed of nothing but open water by September. "

    This is restrained? this is about as strong a warning as it gets. The reason it doesn't sound like someone screaming from the top of their lungs is because scientists are supposed to report facts, interpretation and predictions.

    Unless you mean _you_ can't tell that they are being serious about it, that you need the kind of sensational titles from those weekly celebrity magazines, like "Is Arctic Melting Again?!!! Scientists Say We Will All Die Next Year!"

    By the time you feel their warning is sufficiently dire, it's already too late to do anything about it. Don't worry, it's not that much longer to go.

    There have been plenty of dire predictions, but it's never going to enough for people who stick fingers in their ears and pretend they can't hear anything they don't want to hear.

    You know, just because there are two sides to the debate, doesn't mean the answer is somewhere in the middle. Sometimes, one side is just completely wrong.

  • by tobiasly ( 524456 ) on Friday June 27, 2008 @04:49PM (#23973729) Homepage

    Isn't that just general bio?

    I think it's actually just basic geometry.

  • by Anonymous Brave Guy ( 457657 ) on Friday June 27, 2008 @04:53PM (#23973779)

    On the other hand, there is a non-zero chance that when you leave your home to go to work tomorrow morning, you will be run over by a truck. You could guarantee that you will avoid this fate by staying home. Do you do so?

    The difference is just the numbers. In one case, we know the impact is very likely; in the other, it is very unlikely. In one case, the downside of making the "safe" choice is negligible; in the other, it probably costs you your job.

    I rather doubt that an informed, object viewer of the current evidence on global warming would consider the situation anything like either of these extremes.

    For the record, I also rather doubt any of the people expressing such strong views in this Slashdot discussion are even remotely qualified to do so. Heck, looking at some of the comments, I would be surprised if the majority of people here even know the basic science to understand what is being discussed rather than regurgitating the passionately held views of whoever's position statement they read most recently.

  • Mod Parent Up!!!! (Score:2, Insightful)

    by geoffrobinson ( 109879 ) on Friday June 27, 2008 @04:59PM (#23973861) Homepage

    So even global warming backers say global warming is in hiatus but they'll point to this as proof of global warming. Which they admitted is in hiatus.

  • by z-j-y ( 1056250 ) on Friday June 27, 2008 @05:00PM (#23973867)

    Without humans, there is no "good" or "bad". Unless there's some overlord above humans that defines moral standards.

  • by Anonymous Coward on Friday June 27, 2008 @05:04PM (#23973933)

    Global warming is a scam.
    Weather Channel Founder Wants To Sue Al Gore For Global Warming Fraud
    http://www.infowars.com/?p=805
    http://media.kusi.clickability.com/documents/Global+Warming+is+a+Scam1.pdf
    CO2 is a life giving element not a poison.
    http://home.earthlink.net/~root.man/warming.html

  • Re:1421 (Score:1, Insightful)

    by MacDork ( 560499 ) on Friday June 27, 2008 @05:05PM (#23973943) Journal

    Most of the 1421 theory revolves around a map that seems to detail North America in some fashion.

    Most of the global warming theory revolves around computer models that seem to detail future events in some fashion. As it turns out, those models are proven wrong through simple observation over [cato.org] and over [newscientist.com] and over [sciencedaily.com] again. Until somebody can find more proof to back up the global warming claim, it is an undecidable as to its veracity.

    0:-)

  • Re:I for one... (Score:3, Insightful)

    by fm6 ( 162816 ) on Friday June 27, 2008 @05:06PM (#23973957) Homepage Journal

    Cod? Probably gone in our lifetime. More a matter of overfishing than climate change, but it's all the same if you like fish.

    I hope you like krill. Cause that's probably gonna be it for seafood.

  • by Anonymous Brave Guy ( 457657 ) on Friday June 27, 2008 @05:07PM (#23973969)

    I think you misunderstand me. They (both the politians and much of the scientific community) are indeed making rather dramatic statements today.

    Given that little new research has become available in the past couple of years, and given the decades of research we already had on the subject, it is surprising then that such similarly dramatic statements were not being picked up until quite recently. If so much of the scientific community agrees so unanimously that this is such a great threat, why did it take a failed presidential candidate making a flawed film to put this issue seriously on the political radar?

    Of course, one could (and several in this discussion have) just as well point out that the total amount of ice up there is actually higher this year than last year. Should we infer from this that global warming was all just a red herring? Of course not. It's just another small piece in a very large jigsaw, and sensationalising it does no-one any favours.

  •       I lived in Florida for years. Land of alligators and cockroaches. Yes, I've seen plenty of things that can live through anything. :)

  • by shadowofwind ( 1209890 ) on Friday June 27, 2008 @05:13PM (#23974063)

    This is exactly right.

    Defense contractors and Republicans get hype terrorism, environmental scientists and Democrats hype climate change. Both threats are real, but the dialogue is severely distorted and misleading. Its all about power and money.

  • by phizix ( 1143711 ) on Friday June 27, 2008 @05:20PM (#23974151)

    Who cares if humans get wiped out?


    Me.

  • by drinkypoo ( 153816 ) <drink@hyperlogos.org> on Friday June 27, 2008 @05:22PM (#23974199) Homepage Journal
    Yeah, I'm not going to go into a frenzy of misquoting here or anything, but George Carlin (may he rot in peace) had a whole routine about how the idea that humans are ruining the planet is the most arrogant thing imaginable. The planet's fine. The people are fucked. That about sums it up...
  • by camperdave ( 969942 ) on Friday June 27, 2008 @05:43PM (#23974461) Journal
    Ice displaces a volume of water equal to it's weight. So (discounting the whole mass vs weight thingy) a chunk of ice weighing a kilogram will displace a volume of water weighing a kilogram. Conveniently, this is a litre. So a kilogram of ice displaces a litre of water. Now when a kilogram of ice melts, it becomes a kilogram of water, which has a volume of one litre, which is exactly what was displaced by the ice. Thus the level does not go up or down.

    Except that the above assumes fresh water. Salt water is denser than fresh water, so a kilogram sized chunk of ice will displace LESS than a litre of salt water. When that kilo of ice melts, it adds a litre of fresh water to the salt water. Thus the overall quantity of water goes up. So, when the Northern ice cap melts, there will be a rise in the ocean levels.
  • by Lost Race ( 681080 ) on Friday June 27, 2008 @05:46PM (#23974509)

    We're taking billions of tons of carbon out of the ground and putting it into the atmosphere. Are you so confident that this will have no effect on climate that you're willing to bet billions of lives on it? That seems crazy to me. Climatologists have actually done the math and generally agree that the risk is significant. What is the downside in proactively reducing fossil fuel consumption? We're going to have to reduce fossil fuel consumption eventually anyway (as the high-quality near-surface stuff runs out) so getting started early and possibly avoiding an immense global disaster seems only prudent.

  • by fm6 ( 162816 ) on Friday June 27, 2008 @06:15PM (#23974829) Homepage Journal

    Ah yes, the post-modern slacker approach to global crisis. If you worry at all about the impending extinction of the human race, or (more likely) its continued existence in a degraded state on planet that's become a very unpleasant, well then, you're just taking yourself too seriously.

    Alas, I hail from an earlier time, when people thought that what they did mattered, and that the future was somehow our responsibility. I find the idea of pursuing a life of social onanism and moral solipsism too depressing for words.

  • u=bucket 0 fail (Score:3, Insightful)

    by zogger ( 617870 ) on Friday June 27, 2008 @06:28PM (#23974973) Homepage Journal

    "polar ice maximum"--that is the *date* of the thickest ice, end of winter ice forming season. Calendar dates are not thick (or thin). FWIW, they reckon mid march this past winter for the polar ice maximum at the north pole. If you mean extent, it was marginally larger than last year, but still way below average and most of it is "young" ice, and it is already melting rapidly. Old ice-ice that has survived past one season- has been steadily dropping for some time now. That's the thick heavy duty stuff that hangs in there and really helps with climate moderation and circulation, but there is less of it every year now. Once it is all young ice, it will be ice free every summer, more or less completely. If that happens, the next goi go is the tundra, and if the tundra goes all melty, 100 zillion cubic metric fucktons of methane start to be released-then all bets are off. The climate modelers gauges only go to 10 ;)

    Not that I am a proponent of the 100% man made global climate change theory, I am not, and I am completely against the total scam carbon trading massive wealth skimming industry and huge government power grabs being pushed as the "war on carbon", when we all need and use carbon, no way around that. But I am a proponent of the climate change theory of man made simultaneously with naturally occurring cyclic and solar output variable. IMO, it is *all of the above*, all the time now, but I also support a real fast shutdown (within a decade or so) of the heavy pollution from coal and oil, a fast weaning off those sources, (I certainly think the big oil guys and big coal guys have made enough for now, time for the planets money to go elsewhere and to eliminate threat of war over those resources) and a global mega project to go to renewables and decentralized power and individual ownership as much as possible. I am against massive air and water pollution just to perpetuate global energy cartel vendor lockin. If such a switch helps to moderate climate change for the better, that's frosting.

  • by Sylver Dragon ( 445237 ) on Friday June 27, 2008 @06:37PM (#23975061) Journal
    Alas, I hail from an earlier time, when people thought that what they did mattered, and that the future was somehow our responsibility.

    Really? 'cause it looks like you guys dropped the ball from this side of the generational divide.
  • by statemachine ( 840641 ) on Friday June 27, 2008 @06:40PM (#23975093)

    That's a myth.

    From the same article [polarbears...tional.org]:

    Climate change is the main threat to polar bears today. A diminishing ice pack directly affects polar bears, as sea ice is the platform from which they hunt seals. Although the Arctic has experienced warm periods before, the present shrinking of the Arctic's sea ice is rapid and unprecedented.

  • by fm6 ( 162816 ) on Friday June 27, 2008 @06:45PM (#23975133) Homepage Journal

    I said that we cared. I didn't say we cared effectively.

    Or maybe we did. Look in your wallet, see if there's a draft card [keller.com]. There isn't? Are any of your co-workers non-white? Women in traditionally male jobs? Openly gay? So maybe we did accomplish a thing or two.

  • by ConceptJunkie ( 24823 ) on Friday June 27, 2008 @07:11PM (#23975381) Homepage Journal

    Meh. Chicken Little types have short attention spans. I'm sure they will be forget about "global warming" in a few years and be wailing about some completely new reason the world will end in the next three months.

  • by sumdumass ( 711423 ) on Friday June 27, 2008 @07:31PM (#23975573) Journal

    I didn't say that Human Co2 emissions didn't matter, I said are you sure that is what's cause the polar ice caps to melt.

    On the subject of matters, you link doesn't show anything where Human Co2 "matters" in a detrimental way. It simply states that it is there. Or is the site pushing some agenda that the not yet convinced would readily see.

  • by NeutronCowboy ( 896098 ) on Friday June 27, 2008 @07:47PM (#23975719)

    But the argument can also be made that the consensus prior to global-warming was not there-is-no-warming, but rather global-cooling and trying to drive policy to prevent the coming ice age. These people have a poor track record with predictions, but always seem ready with recommendations for how to behave.I would suggest that the global warming crowd make a track of predictions for average surface, ocean and atmospheric temperatures for the next ten years.


    Done. Check out the old IPCC reports. They go back over 10 years. They've actually been too conservative in their estimates (i.e., their most probable prediction turned out to be too low).

    I find that you have not been paying attention to the discussion, or to the data that has been collected.

    As for the Crichton quote... that's cute, but that's complete nonsense. What he is going for is "scientists were wrong before, so they are wrong now!". It's absolute bullshit that provides zero insight into the current problem. For this reason alone, I disregard everything that Crichton says about this problem. He doesn't understand how science works, and merely derails discussions about data.

  • by kjots ( 64798 ) * on Friday June 27, 2008 @08:17PM (#23976071)

    ... and the faint (but real) possibility that the whole thing will cycle out of control and render the planet uninhabitable.

    There is absolutely nothing, nothing, that the human race can to that will render this planet uninhabitable. Too believe otherwise is supreme arrogance.

    Even if we simultaneously launched every nuclear, chemical and biological weapon and dumped every ounce of toxic waste, a million years later there would be no indication that we had done anything at all except for a thin radioactive smear in the fossil record.

    The only things that could end life on Earth are the Sun (which will do so in about a billion or two years when it gets so hot it will boil away the oceans) or a collision with another celestial body (and it would have to be a big one - the last few didn't do squat in the life-terminating department).

    Simply put, life is the most powerful force in the universe. The human race, however, is another matter...

  • by ResidntGeek ( 772730 ) on Friday June 27, 2008 @09:40PM (#23976911) Journal
    What the fuck does it matter? Some women can work as managers and there are black accountants now, great. Do you think that's a victory on the same scale as stopping your generation from annihilating the human population of Earth?
  • Re:From TFA (Score:4, Insightful)

    by endstar ( 1298815 ) on Saturday June 28, 2008 @01:23AM (#23978225)

    30 years ago there were a couple articles in popular magazines pointing out that up until 10,000 years ago, Europe an North America underwent repeated, frequent ice ages. They had not measured the Earth cooling in the 30 years prior. Gerald Ford did not get an Ocscar or a Nobel Prize for a movie about Global Cooling. Global cooling was never taken seriously then in the way that global warming now is.

    Now we have measured the Earth warming. We have tried to model it, and the only reasonable explanation is human emissions of greenhouse gases. It now appears the North Pole will melt this year.

    How much longer do you want to wait for "definitive evidence" that global warming is happening, and that we're causing it? Until drought wrecks the farm economy of California? Until Florida disappears back into the ocean? Until the oil and the coal runs out, and there's no longer economic incentive for people to stick their heads in the sand?

  • by statemachine ( 840641 ) on Saturday June 28, 2008 @03:26AM (#23978701)

    No, I really want you to critically think. But you have to follow to the peer-reviewed research. Just about everyone commenting tonight is not linking to peer-reviewed research.

    Many, like yourself, just crack wise and don't even bother with a link. I, on the other hand, link to informative articles and peer-reviewed research. The evidence *is* on my side. You provide none. And, unlike you, I have an open mind to new peer-reviewed research, no matter the result. This actually opens the world to me as I am comfortable with assessing my boundaries and adjusting them as necessary. Try it sometime.

  • by Kreigaffe ( 765218 ) on Saturday June 28, 2008 @04:56AM (#23978993)

    Don't tell me China and India didn't benefit from past emmissions.

    Unless they're completely independently going to develop their industrial complex.

    They're not? Gonna borrow from what the rest of the world has already learned? You're benefitting from past emmissions. BUCK UP KIDDO, it's a hell of a lot cheaper to BUILT a modern, low-pollution industrial plant and transportation infrastruction, than it is to RENOVATE that shit.

  • by Ornedan ( 1093745 ) on Saturday June 28, 2008 @05:44AM (#23979175)

    Actually, altering the atmospheric composition really is one way we could render the planet uninhabitable for all but maybe some extremophiles. A runaway greenhouse effect is what happened to Venus.

  • by peragrin ( 659227 ) on Saturday June 28, 2008 @08:12AM (#23979833)

    Can i saw one minor nitpicking point.

    More species have died in the millions of years before man than exist currently.

    Life goes on, whatever forms it may take it always goes on. massive ice age, a planet that is warm enough for the dinosaurs to come back Life will go on.

    Unless you plan on living forever you won't see any of it either. no matter what happens.

  • by fm6 ( 162816 ) on Saturday June 28, 2008 @09:06PM (#23986469) Homepage Journal

    More species have died in the millions of years before man than exist currently.

    Yes, and natural causes kills more people than Hitler ever heard of. Does that make genocide OK?

    Unless you plan on living forever you won't see any of it either. no matter what happens.

    So, because I'm mortal, I shouldn't give a shit about the future? Right now, our species is likely to die off in the near future or (just as bad, IMHO) continue to live with decreased vitality and happiness on planet that's had its natural resources and wonders used up and devastated. That's something that needs to be cared about.

    You know why the olive leaf is the symbol of peace? Because an olive tree takes over a century to become fully productive. Nobody plants an olive for their own benefit, it's something you do because you care about the future. I prefer to care, even if nobody else gives a shit.

The moon is made of green cheese. -- John Heywood

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