On the Economics of the Kindle 398
perlow writes "Just how many books a year would you need to read before the cost of Amazon's Kindle is justified? The answer is not so cut-and-dried. If you're a college student and all of your texts were available on Kindle (possible but unlikely), you could recover the cost of the reader in a semester and a half. For consumers to break even with Kindle's cost in that time, they would have to be in the habit of buying and reading four new hardback books per month — if the convenience factor wasn't part of the equation. At two books per month, breakeven would be in three years." Here is the spreadsheet if you want to play with the numbers.
Wrong premise (Score:1, Interesting)
All the books you can read on the Kindle, you can read with a book reader sitting at your computer for essentially the same price. If convenience isn't part of the equation, the Kindle will never pay for itself. (assuming you already have to have a computer to interface with the Kindle)
That said, I have a non-kindle but similar book reader, and feel it is more than worth it. Half the reason that the Baen Free Library increases sales of the books in it is that people don't want to sit at their computer to read books. Having hundreds of books (currently have 264 books on my book reader) in the palm of your hand, in a consistent size (no hardbacks you can't stick in your pocket) and readable anywhere with a 2 week battery life is just hard to beat.
Kindle will never replace textbooks (Score:2, Interesting)
As an engineering student, I think this idea is impractical. When I'm preparing for a midterm, I'm usually burning through practice problems at the end of each chapter. The ability to glance at the last few pages of the book (physically) to check my answer, or to flip back a few pages to reread a concept is invaluable. I'm sure I would get annoyed rather quickly with the electronic equivalent.
Now on the other, for light reading. I can see how it's practical.
I would never replace my textbooks with it.
Value over Lifespan not ROI (Score:4, Interesting)
The advantage e-books have over dead-tree versions is in technical material. Shop manuals, technical schematics, medical journals, etc. Any material where being able to 'search' would be a benefit. E-books offer almost 0 benefit for casual or 'entertainment' reading. But that isn't the point. Source material longevity is the key. A good quality hardcover can last HUNDREDS of years! Try that with any electronic device or file-system. I remember a time not too long ago when 16 registers on a CPU were a big deal, and DOS apps couldn't read Mac files (even the 'simple' ASCII txt files) and there were different file-system structures 7bit vs 8bit vs *. We think that .txt is the safest solution for portability and longevity but IBM used to think the same thing about punch-cards!
If you are going to invest enough money in a Kindle to make it a 'worthy' purchase, then you are that-much-more going to benefit 50 years from now with your library of real-books and a pair of eyeballs as your interface to them.
college textbook analysis doesn't work (Score:5, Interesting)
His analysis of the kindle as a vehicle for college textbooks doesn't work.
Most students buy their books used and sell most of them back to the bookstore at the end of the semester. If publishers started offering textbooks for the kindle, they'd presumably be DRM'd, and you wouldn't be able to sell them back. The publishers hate the used textbook market, and they do anything they can to kill it off (e.g., a new edition of a calculus textbook every 2-3 years), so there's no question in my mind that they'd use DRM to eliminate it.
Most lower-division textbooks in most subjects are in a large, color format with a layout so complex that it makes every page look like the cockpit of a 747. This doesn't work on the kindle.
He seems to assume that the cost of a college textbook mainly has to do with paper, printing, and binding (ppb), so that it would be much cheaper in electronic form. Actually, ppb is no more than a small fraction of the cost of most textbooks.
He seems to assume that the only way to read an electronic book is on a special e-book reader, and then he goes on to calculate how long it would take to earn back the high cost of a kindle. But nearly all college students either have a laptop or a desktop machine, so the only logical reason for them to buy a kindle would be the same as for anyone else: convenience.
Re:Kindle will never replace textbooks (Score:2, Interesting)
Annoying overseas (Score:4, Interesting)
Kindle's wireless deliveries only work inside the USA. Likewise you can't buy content without a US credit card.
This rules out a large chunk of their potential customers, and one of the huge benefits of buying a Kindle. It also means many overseas book sellers won't want their content used on Kindles.
My mother (in Australia) wanted to get one, largely because she can adjust the text on the screen. Here eyes are not what they used to be and she gets stronger and stronger prescriptions on her glasses.
It is the lack of access and the cost that are the biggest obstacles for her. To me is seems the Kindle is an American-only club that provides a good ebook reader at high cost.
Those at Amazon really need to broaden their perspective if this is to take off.
Re:There is more to it... (Score:2, Interesting)
Yup. Not only will I not pay $10 for a sodding text file when I can get a physical thing for the same price or less. I also give away my most of my books to family and friends, or even my library. Can't do that with the Kindle. The Kindle and its ilk need to have their wares for well under a $1, so at least you know you're getting into renting the book field.
Re:i like the idea of the kindle (Score:4, Interesting)
You'll be waiting 5 years at least. I'm probably getting an iliad DR1000SW or PlasticLogic's model next year because they finally got the screen size up to snuff.
The economic analysis in the summary at least is a bit shortsighted. You can save a little on newspaper subscriptions since they don't have to deliver to you or you don't have to waste gas getting one and there are a lot of good free (legally) books online to learn languages/programming/anything but don't want to sit on the computer for. Like this one:
http://www.cs.cmu.edu/~dst/LispBook/ [cmu.edu]
or
http://www.gigamonkeys.com/book/ [gigamonkeys.com]
When I sat down years ago to read those or other books on the computer, it just was a pain. I couldn't use my computer for other things as easily and the eyestrain of a backlighted screen all day. Years back, without a second monitor, it was kinda a pain to follow some programming examples and keep switching back and forth.
Add to that the convenience of having all your books in a memory card or single harddrive. It was a factor driving mp3 music players vs CDs and CDs are much easier to carry around than books.
What is wrong with the current set of books is this:
-screen size (recently solved with the iRex DR1000S - now they have models out big and small good for newspaper/technical_reading/textbooks vs fiction)
-screen refresh rate (too slow on all models)
-only 4 (16 iliad) shades right now
-klutzy software (Apple could exploit this market sooner or later)
-battery life in some models (e-Ink doesn't use any energy once screen is rendered - yet some manufacturers build these things to be recharged almost daily instead of weekly), turn the page and switch it off
-no color
For me, battery life and software and screen size is what I'm not going to compromise on, all others I'm flexible. It probably will be different for everyone. The potential benefits are tremendous though.
Re:Depends on the books, I guess. (Score:4, Interesting)
I know it's in poor style to reply to one's self post, but this time I really had to; I must retract what I said earlier - NO I can not recover my costs quickly, at all! The Kindle versions of my textbooks are effing expenisve! So expensive in fact, that I feel 0 motivation to buy them. Compare the Kindle version of this textbook [amazon.com] to the hardcover version of the same [amazon.com]
That's only US$20 of difference in price. I'm not going to bother gettin e-books.
Re:i like the idea of the kindle (Score:4, Interesting)
I don't own a Kindle. I did not need the web browsing and considered it a distraction so I went with Sony's eReader PRS-505. I can go to my local library's web site, hit the ebook section and download books in Acrobat format (Adobe Digital Editions) These transfer to my reader with just a click and I keep the books there for 2 weeks, just like from the library. I also download eBooks from all over the net, sometime a classic from Gutenberg (open it in Word, takes about 5 minutes to strip the hard returns and save as RTF for import to my reader), sometimes Its a web page that I save (snagged lots of Lovecraft that way) and soemtimes its a mobi file from someplace else, which I convert to the native format with a single command line Mobi2LRF call or by using Kovid Goyal's Calibre software.
I never seem to have time to make it to the library. Killer commute, full time job, on and off school and 3 kids leaves very little time for anything else. I also hate finishing a novel someplace (like while eating lunch at work) and not having another book at the ready. I also find it a bit of a pain to carry a bunch of novels (even paperbacks) around with me. As a consequence, I did not read a lot for fun until the first of this year, when I found that with all of the free CDs from Baen, I had about the entire Honor Harrington Series, and a friend recommended them, so I bit. I bought the $279 PRS-505... Well, I read all 17 of those novels, and the text books for schools were available as ebooks, so I read all the material from my last 2 classes on it, then I found out that Tor was giving away novels before their new web site went live, so I snagged those and read them and the library had a few good books that caught my eye, etc, etc, etc. I've read about 100 novels or so so far this year, and I am now starting reading some of the old Shadow and Doc Savage novels that I found online. You CAN'T discount the convenience factor. I carry my PRS wth me just about everywhere I go. It slips nicely into the out section of my laptop case. I charge it about once per week, It is the single best investment I have made in a long time and I have recommended it to several people who are considering but are still unable to decide between the Sony and the Kindle (unless you plan to buy books from Amazon while on the bus because you can't stand to download a file before you leave the house, or unless you really need another internet device, but one without all the interactivity, I recommend the much cheaper and nicer looking Sony).
The calculations presume you *pay* for the books.. (Score:1, Interesting)
I bought a Sony PRS505 about a year ago and haven't paid a penny for books since, the thing paid itself off months ago when it comes to new release hardcover titles.
Like mp3's and the iPod, piracy will drive sales of this thing - especially with college textbooks.
Re:I'll stick to books (Score:3, Interesting)
I've been reading books with my iPhone and its great at bed time. read with the lights off so I don't disturb my wife, and it powers off if I fall asleep and stop flipping pages. I also have it with me everywhere, so I 've got thought books faster as I can read it anytime.
But content, I cant just loan a copy to my friend, and I cant just mail them a link to the book as hey need the software I use.
E-books need a common format with tags for meta data like MP3s and work on all platforms.
I'd like an e-copy with every paper copy I buy, but copy protection will never allow this freedom.
8(
Oh well.
Re:i like the idea of the kindle (Score:5, Interesting)
If you can ask this question, you have not actually read anything from an eInk based device. I'm not being a smart ass. I thought the same thing and I used to read books on my Toshiba e805 which has a full VGA screen with a dpi as high as the iPhone (one of the best looking displays ever put on a PDA). Then I saw eInk. Like someone above, I also own the Sony, not the Kindle, and for remarkably similar reasons. If you have ever read anything on one of the eInk devices, you don't go back. You buy a booklight for when you want to read in the dark, and you never look back. I now use the iPhone as a PDA, and the eReader to read books. The Toshiba is in its case, sitting on my shelf somewhere.
What happened to Slashdot? (Score:1, Interesting)
For the first time in my Slashdot-reading life, I'm actually disappointed that there isn't more skepticism and hostile commentary being generated here! Every time the Kindle is brought up, all I see is some weak commentary. What the hell happened to the outrage over Section 215 of the Patriot Act [slate.com] that was so abundant a few years back?
From the link I just gave: "Would you know if Section 215 had been used on you? Nope. The person made to turn over the records is gagged and cannot disclose the search to anyone."
Has everyone succumbed to Patriot Act Fatigue or something?
The Patriot Act is still out there, and it absolutely will not stop, ever, until you are dead!
Come on Slashdot readers
Really?
Personally I believe anyone who wants a Kindle is a fool. If I were going to buy an e-book reader (and I'm not), I'd actually consider the freaking Sony model first, which is far more offline (i.e. not reliant on communication with a mothership, unlike the Kindle). Yes, Sony! Ain't that amazing!?
And when you lose it .... (Score:4, Interesting)
When you lose it, drop it, or otherwise break it, you're screwed. Look at how many people lose their cell phones | drop them in the toilet | can't remember where they left them ...
If I somehow lose or destroy a $5 paperback, I'm out $5. How many would I have to lose before I reach the cost of 1 kindle?
Plus books look good on a shelf. I can find the exact book I'm looking for in seconds, and most of the time, with reference manuals, the exact page quickly enough - most reference books come with something called an "index" They even come with a meta-index - though they call it a "table of contents", so the whole "I can search it" is moot. Now, does it blend?
The segway didn't change transportation. Neither will the kindle change my reading habits. And it's a stupid name, to boot. "Kindle" - you can't even burn it
Re:i like the idea of the kindle (Score:1, Interesting)
I commute via train. On my small train alone there are at least 3 people that use one, including myself.
For a commuter, the device is incredible. MP3 player, newspaper subscription, internet browser, and a library all in one. I have a blackberry, an mp3 player, a psp, a ds lite, and a laptop to choose from. Nine days out of ten, I pick the kindle and say to hell with the rest.
Re:Cost estimates off by factor of ten, inconvenie (Score:3, Interesting)
25 years ago Borland came out with Turbo Pascal with its famous "Book License" and the nearly unheard of release-with-no-copy-protection. Treat the disk/program like a book: Give it away, throw it away, whatever. Just be sure though, like a book, it could not possibly be in use in two places at the same time.
Quite a 'novel' idea for software and for consumer property rights.
Re:Kindle? Where are they? (Score:3, Interesting)
It's really nice having my library in my pocket. I was at the dentist last week. As they were waiting for the x-rays, I pulled my phone out, and read a few pages. Plus I don't have to scrounge around for out-of-date magazines anymore in the waiting room. If I get tired of reading, there are always games.
It's not something I would use to sit and read for hours at a time, but it's fine for airplane, toilet, and doctor office reading. I suppose the iPhone with it's larger screen would be a little bit better, but I only spent $50 for a refurbished model, and it's good enough.
Re:Value over Lifespan not ROI (Score:3, Interesting)
Re:There is more to it... (Score:2, Interesting)
The reason I suggested GIFs is that the device shouldn't have to deal with fonts or formatting.
And what you can fit in 1MB isn't incredibly relevant. The question is what you can fit on the 1GB SD.
The point of this device would be that it is a display, and requires a computer to load it. Anything that might require computational power is offloaded to the computer which generates pre-formatted pages the stupid device can throw on the screen.
The actual brains of the device needs:
1) Select folder, can be done with a simple SD/FAT reader chip.
2) Find image with name book0001.gif, done with same chip.
3) Display images, done with whatever 'display gif' chip that electronic photo frames use. (Actually, this chip is already too smart, in that it can resize and reduce color, whereas if a computer was generating the gifs it wouldn't need to do that.)
4) Have device that advances to next file, or previous file, and saves current file. My MP3 player does exactly that, there's probably a chip for that, or maybe it's built into the SD/FAT reader chip.
That's it. That much electronics should literally cost less than the plastic molding, both of which together should come in at under 5 dollars. There's a reason you can buy extremely lowend MP3 players for 7 dollars, and those have a cheap LCD screen that we do not need to count for these purposes.
I don't know how much epaper screens actually cost, it looks like they added 50 dollars to the cost of LCD readers, although I don't know how much the LCD cost in the first place. But they should literally be almost the entire price of the device.
Coward Speaks!! I actually own one these things... (Score:1, Interesting)
It is amazing to me the how emotional people are about this product. Especially on site like this one where people a not exactly afraid of technology.
To look at the Kindle strictly in a "how-many-books-do-need-to-buy-to-break-even" totally misses the point of this device. It's like saying, "Well, I can get records for 99c a piece, and one iTune song is 99c, so I can NEVER justify the price of an iPod."
The Kindle has revolutionized reading for me. I have owned the device for almost a year now and have read about 50 books on it. Most I have gotten off Project Gutenberg, so I paid nothing for them. The books I have bought off Amazon, I have never paid more than 9.99 for, and most less than that...
Okay, so I am getting off topic, I am doing exactly what I said people should not do. Let's look at the intangibles. I am in the Navy, when I go to sea, books used to be a significant part of the weight of my sea bag. What is the value of having 20#+ I used to lug around reduced to a few oz? :)
When you reading late and your eyes are getting tired and vision blurred, what is the value of instantly being able to increase the font size and keep reading?
What is the value of being able to hit a button to turn the page, thus less time is spent not reading? (yes, there is the "flash", but its time is short than a manual page turn, plus, just like page turning, you mind get used to it and you do not notice as you are reading)
What is the value of free internet anywhere you are in the US? I was lost in San Jose the other day, google maps and my kindle took me home. No need for a GPS for me.
What is the value of reading a newspaper, quickly, conveniently, without killing trees! ?
I know, I can go on and on and on.. and many will say, "Well my iPhone can do that...or my Laptop" True, though I cannot IMAGINE reading on an iPhone, the lack of back lighting is key to reduced eye-strain on the Kindle. And either way you need a wireless data plan.
Anyhoo...sorry for my rant, just cheeses me off (who says that?) that most complaints about the kindle are by people who have never really used it for a significant amount of time and fail to see how revolutionary the device is. It may not be for you, and that's cool. Just understand it is highly useful for some people.