A Look Back At Kurzweil's Predictions For 2009 307
marciot writes "It's interesting to look back at Ray Kurzweil's predictions for 2009 from a decade ago. He was dead on in predicting the ubiquity of portable computers, wireless, the emergence of digital objects, and the rise of privacy concerns. He was a little optimistic in certain areas, predicting the demise of rotating storage and the ubiquity of digital paper a bit earlier than it appears it will actually happen. On the topic of human-computer speech interfaces, though, he seems to be way off." And of course Kurzweil missed 9/11 and the fallout from that. His predictions might have been nearer the mark absent the war on terror.
Civil Liberties (Score:5, Insightful)
His prediction on civil liberties might not have been so true if 9/11 never happened.
So, basically (Score:5, Insightful)
Kurzweil has a really good handle on where hardware will be, but not software. What I believe this means is that drives the creation of software is not how quickly it can be developed, but whether there's demand for it.
Demand and innovation are a lot trickier to predict than advances in speed and minitiaturization of electronics hardware, so what we envisioned we thought our future selves might want in 2009 isn't actually quite what it turns out we actually wanted.
Kurzweil thinks speech interface is where it's at, but the world gives us Twitter and Facebook.
Kurzweil wants to use technology to make us immortal or give rise to machines that supercede humankind and take the next evolutionary step as a technological rather than biological one. Meanwhile, people want to make money, get laid, watch stupid video clips, listen to music, and act like their opinion is the best thing there's ever been.
So... Where'll we be in the future? Watch Idiocracy.
I Don't Think That Word Means What You Think... (Score:4, Insightful)
...the emergency of digital objects...
Will someone shut him up yet? (Score:2, Insightful)
What? He got like 3 right out of 40.
If you throw enough crap against a wall, some of it will stick.
Kurzweil's 60. At this point, he can't seriously believe that technology is going to keep him alive forever anymore, can he?
He got most of it completely wrong (Score:5, Insightful)
Most of his predictions that he got right were brain-dead obvious in 1999 - we already had portable computers coming into common use, and cellphones everywhere. This trend was pretty clearly going to continue. Hell, the Gameboy was proof enough that we were about to see a generation who grew up with portable computing. "Body LANs" don't exist in any meaningful form. People at best are wearing the utility belt of gadgets, some of which might talk Bluetooth to each other.
The rest? Wireless? Please. Bluetooth and Wi-Fi were just coming into fruition around that time, and obviously wireless use was going to come into play. Again, cellphones paved the way for this. Beyond that though... I still see millions of wired speakers, mice, keyboards, dvd players, you name it. I still don't see wireless as being the most common form of network access, hell any network admin worth his salt will rant about the general poor performance of Wi-Fi. Wireless printers and displays never really came about (I do find it amusing that he says "occasional keyboard" - the most obvious use of a low-bandwidth wireless interface). His vision of ubiquitous wireless access never came about - the best we have is the cellphone networks, which again, we already had 10 years ago.
Digital books, movies, music? Napster was already out by then. The entertainment industry did its best to stop this from happening and it's only been in the past year or three that it's even been practical (from a legal perspective).
Eyeglass displays have existed for a long, long time and never achieved much success.
A trillion calculations per second on a home computer, eh?
Anyway, just seems a bit underwhelming. He got so much completely wrong.
He appears to have underestimated . . . (Score:3, Insightful)
. . . the lawyers.
This is surprising since the copyright fanatics spoke much more boldly 10 years ago than they do today.
How much of the truth of his predictions is the result of his predictions?
Funniest line goes to... (Score:5, Insightful)
Style improvement and automatic editing software is widely used to improve the quality of writing."
So close [nwsource.com], and yet [xkcd.com] so, so far... [xkcd.com]
Most all the predictions I read in this article have roughly the same problem - it still assumes technology is much more ubiquitous than it is in the real world. I'd say he was probably off by a five to ten years in many of those predictions. Let's see:
Computers: Personal computers are available in a wide range of sizes and shapes, and are commonly embedded in clothing and jewelry such as wristwatches, rings, earrings, and other body ornaments... The majority of text is created using continuous speech recognition (CSR) dictation software.
Getting there, but we're not quite at the point of wearing computers in common objects. Keyboard and mouse are still king.
Education: Students of all ages typically have a computer of their own, which is a thin tabletlike device weighing under a pound with a very high resolution display suitable for reading... Intelligent courseware has emerged as a common means of learning.
Closer, but education still seems largely clueless about how to effectively use computers. Intelligent teaching software is making strides, but still really can't be called "intelligent" by any stretch of the imagination.
Communication: "Telephone" communication is primarily wireless, and routinely includes high-resolution moving images... Virtually all communication is digital and encrypted, with public keys available to government authorities.
Technologists always want that video phone, and the market continually says "no thanks, voice is good enough". In fact, it's gone backwards a bit, with text messaging being rather popular.
Business and Economics: Intelligent assistants which combine continuous speech recognition, natural-language understanding, problem solving, and animated personalities routinely assist with finding information, answering questions, and conducting transactions... Most purchases of books, musical "albums," videos, games, and other forms of software do not involve any physical object.
Again, the overestimation of natural interfaces. And as of right now, a large percentage of software (especially games) is still attached to a physical disk, although digital downloads are gaining Steam... (sorry)
Politics and Society: Privacy has emerged as a primary political issue. The virtually constant use of electronic communication technologies is leaving a highly detailed trail of every person's every move.... There is a growing neo-Luddite movement...
This one's pretty close regarding privacy concerns. As far as neo-Luddite, I haven't seen any such movement emerge in large numbers. There are some anti-technologists, but it's usually a secondary effect of some other philosophical argument.
The Arts: The high quality of computer screens, and the facilities of computer-assisted visual rendering software, have made the computer screen a medium of choice for visual art.
Another one technologists always get wrong is the idea that people are eager to throw away traditional art mediums. I think Star Trek was closer on this one, about how people will always enjoy timeless "classical" entertainment right alongside their "high-tech" (holodeck) entertainment. The two need not be mutually exclusive.
Etc, etc... I'd say the predictions were generally on the right track, but perhaps just a bit too optimistic in the rate of adoption. Still, overall it was fairly insightful, if somewhat conservative. I'm not sure I could have done nearly as well.
Re:Idiocracy (Score:5, Insightful)
Excellent post. The worst thing too is that techy Internet pundits always bring up the Idiocracy reference, as if only the Internet could walk in a clean white suit above the supposed muck of the idiot masses.
But of course, they all forget their own idiocratic backyard that includes places like 4chan, /b/, and Encyclopedia Dramatica. Or even places like Boing Boing or Youtube, which is a constant barrage of bite-sized irrelevant data for the ADHD crowd. /.'ers don't need to watch Idiocracy. We are living in an Internet Idiocracy that no one cares to improve because of the lulz. Neil Postman's 'Amusing Ourselves to Death' is THE ultimate predictor of the future. We are going to giggle ourselves to death with LOLcats, and people will argue vehemently that it's morally better than any alternative. Like Postman said, we'll beg to stay entertained.
Re:So, basically (Score:1, Insightful)
There is a corollary to what you are saying. Demand drives innovation in the consumer market, this much is certain. Can you say betamax vs. VHS? That was not a positive innovative step that was driven by demand, so it works both ways.
What twitter and facebook are... well, technically speaking, they are tweaks to current hardware and understanding of the Internet as a system. One of the key driving factors is that they are reasonably simple to use and users are allowed to 'pimp out' their little space fairly easily. This is something that I've noticed in consumer driven changes. If you can't pimp it out, then people want to have the item that is envied as is. Can you say 'Apple halo effect'?
Computers and software often offer neither of these, or they are not accomplished easily. I've been trying to understand how to apply this to Linux. Any good small business has to have a plan. That plan should include something that sets it apart from every kid in his mom's basement.
I don't think that Idiocracy is where it's at, but rather where the next personal tech that can be pimped out or personalized. I predict (not necessarily in 2009) that computing will make the grade again when a user interface can be pimped out with voice and 3D animations so that the actual experience is nothing like we get with /. or current technology. Some of this can be seen already, but requires a bit more than average hardware to get oohs and aahhhs. When average hardware catches up and the end user experience starts closing in on that experience we viewed on Star Trek (RIP Magel) it will see a resurgence in popularity and development.
I can envision a 3D world not unlike SecondLife that is the end user interface. Documents are in a virtual file cabinet, the little tv is where you launch videos, Perhaps your avatar has a tricorder for surfing the web etc. Who knows exactly, but this virtual world end user experience will make a large difference. Instant messaging will be more like going to visit a friend's house, or meet them in virtual Paris. MySpace will be a small chunck of the 3D world, pimped out for visitors. When surfing the web becomes as interesting as the end user wants to make it, we'll see changes. You and I might prefer some stark spartan setup with FF for browsing with tabs and multiple windows etc. A 16 year old girl might like it to be an Internet full of ponies and glass slippers. Guys might like to decorate the trashcan of their OS with the logo from a football team they despise. There are myriad and as yet unfathomable ways to pimp out the end user experience yet keep them inside a sandbox and away from the important stuff that the neither want to fuck with nor know about. One youngster here in this house would be fine with a user interface or desktop that looks like a hockey rink, and move about in the rink to access 3D objects that opened what you and I call normal applications. He'd pay the NHL $50 bucks for the 'skins' to pimp it 0ut too. Nothing like hearing your team's anthem instead of a drumroll when you log in. Yeah, sure, that can be done now, but it's much more consumer oriented to sell a CD with the install icon and have it all set up for you except for a few tweeks of picking the tune etc.
Well, enough of that. Computers are not made for the throw-away generations. Not yet. When they are, we'll see much more innovation and hi-tech application to low tech processes. Imagine that little girl who loves the computer to be ponies. Her alarm clock is a soft toy pony. She can talk to the pony alarm clock and because it is connected to her computer, the pony can tell her she has a message from Grandma. Read it to me says the girl. The pony does. Tell grandma I love her says the girl. The pony replies to the email. At some point in the future, the near future, none of us will think this is awesome or odd or amazing. It will just be how things are.... or can be.
Re:Will someone shut him up yet? (Score:4, Insightful)
This one is obvious:
"Individuals primarily use portable computers, which have become dramatically lighter and thinner than the notebook computers of ten years earlier. "
Am I supposed to think that they just get bigger and bigger after 10 years?
"Computers routinely include wireless technology to plug into the ever-present worldwide network, providing reliable, instantly available, very-high-bandwidth communication."
Wrong, we don't have ever-present worldwide network. Even finding 'hot-spots' are hard.
"Communication between components, such as pointing devices, microphones, displays, printers, and the occasional keyboard, uses short-distance wireless technology."
Mouse/keyboard is about it. Display won't be wireless.
"Government agencies, however, continue to have the right to gain access to people's files, which has resulted in the popularity of unbreakable encryption technologies."
Umm, I guess they still have access if they have a warrant.
I don't see your average person using encryption, let alone 'unbreakable' type.
The only thing he got right is the obvious one. They rest are off. Making a 10-year prediction isn't very fun anyway. 20-year or longer predictions are great, especially if they include flying personal transportation.
Re:Will someone shut him up yet? (Score:5, Insightful)
Er, my phone certainly does have essentially an ever-present connection to the worldwide network. And my phone is a linux machine I would have been proud to have on my desktop 7 years ago.
Re:Civil Liberties (Score:3, Insightful)
That is utter bullshit. Civil liberties have been going downhill for a long long time. His prediction on civil liberties was already true before 9/11.
Pretty close though (Score:3, Insightful)
I was sitting next to someone with a Kindle on a plane last week, so the digital paper thing is moving fast.
Rotational storage is not going away anytime soon (who though we'd have Terabyte drives?), but you certainly my iPhone can do a heck of a lot of computing with just Flash.
Not right about much that's important (Score:3, Insightful)
The things he was right about were fields where the path forward was pretty certain. We had a pretty good idea then how we'd make microchips smaller and faster, a clear path forward. Only now is that path getting clouded by physical limits. Where he was wrong was in predicting steady, linear progress in areas where there isn't a clear path forward. This includes AI, interface design, economics, and general welfare (I just love his dismissal of the underclass; they're a pretty big portion of humanity, you know, and I don't think the human story can be truly told without theirs as well).
Re:I Don't Think That Word Means What You Think... (Score:5, Insightful)
Their is nothing Ron with speech wreck ignition. I use it inns Ted of my keyboard awl the thyme.
Re:So, basically (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:Funniest line goes to... (Score:2, Insightful)
I think you're missing the reason. It's not that people prefer text messaging. I mean, look at Skype - I'm pretty sure people make heavy use of video calls (I know people in my family do).
I think it's a bit of a UI issue, a location issue, and a penetration issue. Video phones generally will be camera phones - and it's difficult to imagine a UI where the lens can be shared by both and used in both modes successfully.
Mobile phones are used everywhere. Video phones require full concentration on the part of both members, which usually isn't practical on the go. Nor do people generally want that huge an interruption - text messages are far more discrete (both sending & receiving) and more private (others around you generally don't know what you've texted).
Additionally, there's unwillingness on the part of some cell providers I think because it'll increase data usage without an obvious rise in value. They're being stupid and full integration with the major players (i.e. Skype - although this may be more difficult, Google, MSN, & Yahoo) would expand the value of their network significantly (Metcalfe's law and all) and wouldn't even need immediate extensive support from other cell companies or phone manufacturers (although they should define the standard so that entry would be minimal for new players - which obviously they would never do, even though it would be in their interest).
I hope video phones do get here, but I'm guessing there's several important factors here, and the main one really being the social aspect.
Re:Idiocracy (Score:4, Insightful)
Gracchus: Fear and wonder, a powerful combination.
Gaius: You really think people are going to be seduced by that?
Gracchus: I think he knows what Rome is. Rome is the mob. Conjure magic for them and they'll be distracted. Take away their freedom and still they'll roar. The beating heart of Rome is not the marble of the senate, it's the sand of the coliseum. He'll bring them death - and they will love him for it.
-gladiator
Bah! Humbug! (Score:2, Insightful)
The biggest problem with Kurzweil's view of the world is that it assumes that any innovation, if technologically feasible, is going to be adopted. As a simple example, the issue of voice-to-voice translation that he raises in the article. Its just more economical and practical to do business with someone who knows English (or has easy access to someone who knows English)
Similar wishful thinking by Sci Fi doyens caused visions of space colonies and interstellar travel by the first decade of the 21st century or soon afterwards (e.g. 2001:A space odyssey) back in the 60s and 70s when the edges of the universe seemed to be be just another Project Manhattan away. We all know how that has turned out.
Yes, there are lots of cool things that technology can produce. It will produce them for a population, however, that is more concerned with surviving on a decreasing resource base than the pursuit of techno-Utopia. Just because a small population of geeks in the US can afford and enjoy playing with gizmos doesn't mean the technology is pervasive in the `world'. Yes, computational power increases with time, and that can be channeled into all kinds of innovation, which is the gist of what Kurzweil is saying. That increase in computational power has limited scalability, however, unless you are assuming that all the world is concerned about is playing PC games, downloading music and watching videos online. [Note: By world, I mean the world outside /. Yes I can prove it exists!]
I think Kurzweil is going to be increasingly disappointed in the coming decades.
Desperate for Singularity (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Funniest line goes to... (Score:3, Insightful)
Technologists always want that video phone, and the market continually says "no thanks, voice is good enough". In fact, it's gone backwards a bit, with text messaging being rather popular.
Wireless video phones are widely available today and have been for years, even my (pretty cheap) phone has that feature. I've never seen anyone use it though, and I've never used it myself. It seemed like a really cool idea when seen in SciFi movies/tv shows, but in reality it's just isn't all that necessary to see the person you're speaking to, especially when on the move as you are with your cellphone.
Re:I have a better track record than he does. (Score:1, Insightful)
Chrysler has almost gone bankrupt in every one of the four U.S. economic downturns in the last thirty years (well, it couldn't actually go under on its own in the dot-com crash, but it cost Daimler a lot of money). Predicting a serious economic problem and predicting an auto company will go under is like, well, predicting somebody will be hit in the head with a bullet and predicting that same person or one of his two friends will die. You're automatically going to be close to right on the second prediction if you're right on the first.
Re:So, basically (Score:5, Insightful)
Probably a few things would be a lot easier (programming by telling the computer what to do in a natural language rather than having to write objects and procedures in a high-level computer language...
Actually, I don't think programming would be any easier at all. We already have people telling programmers what they want in human language (PGMs) and the result is universally horrible. In reality, the hard part about programming is sorting out the nitty gritty details. Transcribing the solution to the computer is not difficult. And I would *not* want to try to discuss these solutions in such detail in natural language.
This is precisely why design documentation tends to go out of date very quickly -- it's written in the wrong language. We can't easily specify the level of detail we require in natural languages and so defer it to programming.
Re:I Predict... (Score:3, Insightful)
Exactly, and being or owning a company is the safest way to be evil and not be punished.
Seriously, what reason is there to 'limit liability' for the owners if not to do things they wouldn't do personally?
Re:So, basically (Score:4, Insightful)
Re:Mod up (Score:5, Insightful)
Contrast that to today. In Western societies (at least) just about everyone from the bottom of the barrel to the top has plenty of free time -- when they're not scarfing down cheap caloric loads taht would stagger their forebearers -- to surf 4Chan and Something Awful, and play videogames. Yep, when freed from want, it turns out most people go for entertainment.
To which I can only say two things. First -- what the fuck do you expect, we're APES. It's not like there's some special nobility gene waiting to be turned on the second we have computers. And second -- who cares? People who want to do interesting things can still do interesting things (see: universities, make magazine, the people who provide content for the unwashed masses on you tube, the open source movement etc.).
Solid-state memories (Score:3, Insightful)
We're nearly there. Some Netbooks already have solid-state hard drives without any rotating platters. The limitation right now seems to be writing speed and time of life. Flash memory still deteriorates with each delete+rewrite. Getting much better though.
As for exchangable media, well, the USB key seems to have become the medium for personal data - although optical media are still used for mass-produced content like movies and music. Can't see that changing ever - DVDs and BluRay disks are much cheaper to produce than rewritable flash memory.
Re:Funniest line goes to... (Score:1, Insightful)
Re:Bah! Humbug! (Score:4, Insightful)
Tech things from the past decade that he COMPLETELY misses in his book:
Kurzweil, in his long term view, predicted a world where technology starts to change us, and we are replaced with computers. He envisioned conflict over this - people fighting about whether computer rights, the meaning of "human," etc. But there hasn't been much conflict, because computers haven't changed us. Human needs are still the driving force between technological change, and as long as this is the case, technology will continue to satisfy our basic needs - to help us do the same things we *already do* faster and better, rather than suddenly giving me a taste for wireless jewelry.
There's plenty of time (Score:4, Insightful)
Don't listen to the naysayers, it's only January...
Re:So, basically (Score:4, Insightful)
Another example: legalese. If you've ever tried reading a legal document, you'd notice that while nominally written in a "natural language", it's:
No Longer War on Terror... (Score:2, Insightful)
They're calling it the "War on Extremism" now. So, watch out, those of you who are extremely anything... the USA is coming for you!
Extremely high? (War on Drugs)
Extremely religious? (War on Terror)
Extremely [...]? (War on [...])
LUIs (Score:3, Insightful)
I'm not sure he was so far off. Sure, personal computers don't use it, but have you gone through a phone interface recently? It's not natural language but I've used some of them that are pretty free-form.