Our Lazy Solar Dynamo — Hello Dalton Minimum? 571
tetrahedrassface writes "Solar maximum is supposed to be occurring, and everything from satellite communications to your toaster or radio could be affected. The only problem is that this just isn't happening, and NASA continues to revise downward the original prediction. In fact, the new forecast for Solar Cycle 24 is a lot smaller, and is now pegged at almost 40% of what was previously predicted. Recently, two scientists at the National Solar Observatory have followed the lead of a prominent Russian scientist, who almost five years ago forecast a dearth of sunspots and the subsequent cooling of Earth for the next several cycles. With Britain currently experiencing the coldest winter in over 300 years, and no new sunspots for the last week, are we heading for a Dalton Minimum, or worse still, yet another Maunder?"
Far-north global warming is still accelerating ... (Score:2, Informative)
Fans of data---as opposed to ideology-driven cherry-picking and quibbling---can verify (via daily satellite updates!) that far-north global warming is still accelerating. The relevant site is Arctic Sea Ice News & Analysis.
Heck, Hudson Bay in Canada *still* hasn't frozen over ... that *never* happens.
Re:So what? (Score:5, Informative)
How much do you enjoy having enough food to eat?
Britain/Northern Europe is Ocean regulated. (Score:4, Informative)
Britain/Northern Europe does not owe its climate status to spot heating. Britain is usually warmer than it should be given its northern position due to the gulf stream. The oceans serve as blocks to cold air from up north coming south. There are incredible global circulation systems which see warm air rise in the mid-latitudes tot he upper atmosphere then cool and return to the ground at the poles. This is the cause of the cold winds that come down from the north. These winds find it easier to come south over land, which cools more easily than water which retains heat better, has its own top/bottom circulation as well as global circulation. Normally the warm currents keep the cold air away.
Global Warming means global warming. The oceans make 3/4 of the surface area to 4' cooling of the land is easily offset by 2' warming of the ocean. 4 * 1/4 = 1 is less than 2 * 3/4 = 1.5. Do not take any specific location changes to mean global stuff.
What global warming does mean is more intense weather systems. Do not go jumping onto local cooling/warming like Europes/US east coast and claim it is getting colder. You need to look at the whole globe. Not just the areas man is in.
Re:I see the Al Gore haters are out. (Score:2, Informative)
Re:But..But...Al Gore said (Score:3, Informative)
You're completely ass-backwards. It's the isotopic ratios which prove that the increased CO2 is anthropogenic as our emissions differ from known natural sources.
Here's the music: the sun's output is weaker than expected and yet 2010 looks like one of the hottest years on record. What is this solar minimum proving again?
Re:Lies (Score:4, Informative)
BTW fluorescent bulbs DO make heat... just not as much. So if you had a farm or something where you need heat, you could swap-out the 100 watt incandescent with a 100 watt CFL (equivalent to 400w incandescent) and get the same amount of heat. Or just use a tiny heater.
I'm pretty sure that a fluorescent that uses 100w will still generate significantly less heat because the newer electronic ballast design is so efficient. We manufacture with the newer style fluorescent ballasts with will ignite 3 to 6 100w lamps, and they get about 5 degrees F over ambient is all. We have devices that use 13 amps worth of these ballasts @ 120v (actual draw, not rated draw), and cool the whole enclosed system with a single 6 inch fan. Fulham makes them, they are the Workhorse series. I actually did an extensive lab test on the thermal output of them and privately published it on these using F71T12HO lamps, and now Fulham uses the results (without my permission....) to sell their stuff. It is a trip to grab a ballast that is powering 3x 100w lamps in your hand after it has been on for an hour, and have it be barely warm at all. Even the lamps themselves are significantly cooler. (In case you are a nerd, these ballasts output at over 100k hertz, whereas older electronics run at 20k hertz, and chokes run at 60hz, same as input.)
I would imagine that newer fluorescents, particularly the kind that are made for enclosures, use similar technology. The original CFLs, maybe not, but the newer more efficient ballasts actually cost less to make now so they are more likely to be used in the future.
Re:I see the Al Gore haters are out. (Score:4, Informative)
So none of those three "investigations" can be honestly called independent, and while I am not necessarily claiming bias, motive for bias is extremely clear.
The only investigations that can be said to have been conducted independently were:
(1) An inquiry by the House of Commons, which stated that while accepted practices may not have been grossly violated, "... those practices have to change." [emphasis mine] That is hardly a ringing endorsement. In particular, Hadley Centre and CRU were scolded for lack of openness, and for playing irresponsibly loose with statistics.
(2) The United States Senate commissioned an investigation into the methods used by Michael Mann and CRU, commonly known as the Wegman Report. Contrary to the "warmist" claims, the Wegman Report was peer-reviewed, by six independent statisticians. All of them agreed with Wegman, who concluded that the math used by Mann, Hadley Centre, and CRU "does not support their conclusions."
So: nice try, but no points. The facts are not on your side.
Re:I see the Al Gore haters are out. (Score:4, Informative)
What temperature slump ?
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.A2.lrg.gif [nasa.gov]
Ignoring the exceptional peak in 1998, every year after 1999 has been exceptionally warm, with 2010 about to break a new record.
Re:Solar activity-volcanism association? (Score:4, Informative)
There's some research on correlation between solar minima and increased volcanic and tectonic activity.
Here's one paper: http://www.agu.org/journals/ABS/1989/JB094iB12p17371.shtml [agu.org]
Re:In before the Global Warming crowd... (Score:5, Informative)
Re:Lies (Score:3, Informative)
>>> have never run into a case where the bulbs did not provide enough light to get around within a second of being turned on.
Well "yay" for you. :-) I've got two types of CFLs. One type flickers for 2 seconds before turning-on at full brightness, which is not bad. I can wait two seconds. The second type appears to be the most common in stores right now. It starts as a dim orange glow, then gradually changes to a yellowish light, and finally achieves full "hot white" appearance. This process takes 3-4 minutes. They are made by the German company called Philips... not some fly-by-night manufacturer.
I tried to put one of these bulbs in the basement steps, but they were so dim I could barely see where I was walking and I got tired of having to wait for the bulb to grow bright enough to see. So I swapped out the CFL for an instant-on, fully-bright incandescent. - I also have them in my reading lamp which is equally frustrating because I have to sit and wait 3-4 minutes before I can start reading the my book. If I hadn't spent ~$3 for each of these bulbs I'd throw them in the trash, but I don't like to waste money.
Sorry if my post offends you.
I'm just sharing my honest experiences.
Re:I see the Al Gore haters are out. (Score:2, Informative)
Um, yes, science is about predictive power. If you understand how a system works, then you can predict how it will react given different inputs. Some of evolution's proof comes from predictions of intermediate species that were unknown and then later discovered. IANABiologist, but I imagine that it's quite difficult to predict future evolution because it takes so long and the inputs can vary widely (how will the environment change over the next million years, what natural disasters will occur, human actions, etc). Though I wouldn't be surprised if there are predictions on various species evolution -- they will just take a long time to verify!
Re:No problem! (Score:5, Informative)
No, I'm alarmed by actual damage done by Bush but denied by you Republicans. You're alarmed by imaginary scandals cooked up by you Republicans.
The difference is that I'm alarmed by facts, but you're alarmed by Republicans telling you non-Republicans are alarmists. You're buried in layers of nightmare.
Re:Lies (Score:3, Informative)
just to inform, Philips is definitely a Dutch company.