Consumers Buy Less Tech Stuff, Keep It Longer 507
Hugh Pickens writes writes "The NY Times reports that there are indications that a sea change is taking place in consumer behavior as a result of the great recession: Americans are buying less tech stuff and making it last longer (reg. may be required). Although in many cases the difference is mere months, economists and consumers say the approach may outlast a full recovery and the return of easy credit, because of the strong impression the downturn has made on consumers. For example Patti Hauseman stuck with her five-year-old Apple computer until it started making odd whirring noises and occasionally malfunctioning before she bought a new computer for Christmas — actually, a refurbished one. 'A week later, the old one died. We timed it pretty well,' says Hauseman, adding that it was not so much that she could not afford new things, but that the last few years of economic turmoil had left her feeling that she could be stealing from her future by throwing away goods that still had value. Consumers are holding onto new cars for a record 63.9 months, up 4.5 months from a year ago and 14 percent since the end of 2008, according one research firm. Industry analysts also report that people on average are waiting 18 months to upgrade their cellphones, up from every 16 months just a few years ago. 'We're not going back to a time of our grandmothers' tales of what they kept and how they used things so carefully,' says Nancy F. Koehn, a professor at the Harvard Business School and a historian of consumer behavior. 'But we'll see a consistent inching or trudging towards that.'"
Re:I would rather buy a quality product... (Score:5, Interesting)
Old stuff works fine (Score:5, Interesting)
And that bloat I think is causing a lot of this. New hardware isn't much faster than the old if it's dragged down by a bloated OS. And I think it's fair to say that most of these new 'features' aren't really necessary at all, so people don't see a need to upgrade. Why do you think XP still has such a large market share? Because people already have it, it does what they need it to, and there's no real need for them to upgrade.
Longevity (Score:5, Interesting)
Yep. I have a five year-old Mac Mini which I upgraded the CPU in (1.5 CoreSolo->2Ghz Core2Duo), a three-year old MacBook Pro, my wife has a five year-old MacBook (the original one). They are all doing fine for the moment, though ominously it looks like Lion is 64-bit only and so the original 32-bit MacBook will have to go.
This isn't a Mac-only thing either. I'm sure someone would be able to point me at their five year-old PC laptop and say pretty much the same thing - basically unless you're doing really demanding tasks or gaming, anything from the last five years is fine.
I have two applications where I wish I had slightly more modern hardware - Logic 9 (music production) stutters at times when I use a lot of audio effect plug-ins, and I wouldn't mind more than 4Gb so that I could run virtual machines a bit more smoothly. That's it - my day-to-day existence is more than catered for with this hardware, indeed it's pretty much overkill.
Cheers,
Ian
Re:Wirth's law (Score:3, Interesting)
5 years? A desktop hard drive maybe. Apple's laptop hard drives die fairly reliably like 2ish years out. I've never seen one last longer than 3 years, although I've seen some fail in year 1.
There are also issues with Mac OS X not handling failing drives gracefully by not giving other processes any CPU time when the kernel starts working on reading a bad sector, plus even obviously bad sectors are commonly not marked.
Re:Good News, Bad News (Score:5, Interesting)
Indie stuff (Score:3, Interesting)
I looked up "runaway1956" on IMDB, but only got this. Have you produced anything I might be familiar with, or was it all indie stuff?
The tendency to look down on "indie stuff" solely because it hasn't been reviewed by the mainstream media is characteristic of someone who accepts or even benefits from a divide between those who create works and those who "just consume" [gnu.org]. It is in the mainstream media's interest to downplay prosumption [pineight.com] because it competes with products of entertainment conglomerates that own the mainstream news media [pineight.com].
Re:Old stuff works fine (Score:4, Interesting)
"HDD is as slow as a dog" beware of this symptom if this behavior does not go away when recreating a filesystem!
Modern hard drives have bad blocks when they are shipped like old ones had (there was a paper with list of bad blocks attached to every new HDD back then).
The difference is that new HDDs have extra space used to relocate bad blocks and do it automatically when they sense that a block is about do die. When there are many relocated blocks it is equivalet to having a fragmented filesystem: for a sequential read the disk head has to seek data in physical places that are afar. The apparent HDD speed decreases as the number of bad blocks increases.
The next stage is to having bad blocks reported by O/S that don't go away when overwritting them. This means that there is so many of them that there is no "extra" space left to relocate them. Your HDD is then basically a colander full of holes and You shouldn't entrust your data to it.
As a side note, after this explanation it should be clear why it happens to be impossible to recover a file due to bad blocks but a after low level format they "vanish". This is not a magic feature of a low level format like "polishing" the plate surface with some strong magnetic field, in reality when a block allocated to a file dies, and You try to read it, the HDD has no choice but to report an error because the data is no longer there, but when You write to it (which low level format does) the block gets relocated.
For this same reason it is recommended to have HDDs holding data that is rarely accessed (typically forensics evidence HDDs) being periodically fully re-read. This forces the relocation of "weak" blocks before they become unreadable.
Re:I would rather buy a quality product... (Score:5, Interesting)
"Sadly, it is getting tougher and tougher to find those quality products,"
Only in brick-and-mortar stores. I grew up with those, and avoid them now.
With the internet I find it MUCH easier to find product information and reviews from actual users then buy what I like. I don't need the stores. Drop ship that shit with a tracking number and old couchslug is happy!
I don't have to rely on ADVERTS for info. Can you say "sea change"? I'm Old as Fuck (51) and in the so-called Good Old Days you had to do research by snail mail and catalog comparisons.
It sucked monstrously.
Fuck nostalgia (well, except for the 1970s drug culture, which was fun with little negative consequence!).
Now, I can read Slashdot while ordering the mix of old quality stuff and new quality stuff that suits my wants. For example, I can order a vintage cutting torch off Ebay and the modern parts to put it back in use, saving (lots of) money and travel time.
I maintain most of what I own and the internet is access to the modern industrial cornucopia of Stuff. Sure, there's lots of cheap shit, but INFORMATION lets me route around it smoothly. The internet has saved me tens of thousands of dollars, made life simpler, and is a wonderful tool.
Re:Good News, Bad News (Score:4, Interesting)
Put a half decent old video card in and the kids can play most older games.
I have thousands invested in software and I'm not going to repurchase anything unless I absolutely have to. I have about 14 systems in my house and my netbook is the only thing less than a year old. I can buy tons of cheap replacement parts on ebay so I should be able to keep this stuff running for years.
Limited demand + rising productivity =unemployment (Score:4, Interesting)
http://econfuture.wordpress.com/2011/02/15/more-on-the-future-implications-ibm-watson-technology/#comment-534 [wordpress.com]
http://knol.google.com/k/paul-d-fernhout/beyond-a-jobless-recovery/38e2u3s23jer/2 [google.com]
Re:You have to keep buying (Score:5, Interesting)
The problem is people have been over-spending and spreading themselves too thin. So now, the slightest bump with their income causes massive repayment issues...People need to be more humble and not lease that new car.
Being a CS geek, I've taken my share of math classes. It is easy for me to understand how compound interest works, and why saving that nest-egg at the beginning of your career is so vital. Once you can pay for things out of pocket, you will save thousands on interest over the course of your life, which in turn enables you to buy even more stuff down the road. But everyone wants everything 'Now', which is a very hard mindset to change.
I wish people weren't so damn stupid, because it affects my retirement directly. I cringe at the fact, somehow, someday, I will be bailing out the idiots who are underwater with mortgages/credit card debt because they were irresponsible and acted foolishly. The majority always get their way, even when they are wrong (IMO democracy problem #1). And people like me, who save their money, will have it ripped from our hands with unobtainable student loan grants for our children, first time home buyer credits, or whatever else the government does to keep me in the same rat-race as everyone else.
True, the banks are partially to blame. In my opinion, nobody should be allowed to buy a house without 20% down. Sure, there are financial wizards who can come up with crazy alternatives and be just fine. But the mess we are in is because too many of those fancy loans were handed out to people who probably never passed algebra 1.
Anyway, I'm getting off topic, I just hate where we are headed and feel helpless no matter what I do. Save or splurge, I honestly can't decide which is a better idea anymore.