Ubuntu Aims For 200 Million Users In Four Years 441
dkd903 writes "Delivering the keynote at the Ubuntu Developer Summit at Budapest, Hungary, Canonical Founder Mark Shuttleworth has announced that Canonical's goal is to have 200 million Ubuntu users in four years. Canonical has not officially provided any data on how many Ubuntu users there currently are — in fact, the number is quite difficult to track. However, according to Prakash Advani, a partner manager for Central Asia at Canonical, there are an estimated 12 million Ubuntu users."
Not bad. (Score:4, Interesting)
Considering PSN is apparently 75 million users, if the numbers for Ubuntu keep growing then we will hopefully see more developers who consider it worthwhile to port their games over. The first to get there stands to do well out of a niche market like us. I've bought Linux games that I still haven't even played, just to encourage the developers. The reason I've not played them is that my only PC right now is a netbook. I'd build a gaming PC again if there was a vibrant Linux gaming scene. As it is, I do all my gaming on consoles just now.
Yeah, I guess I'm counted on that list (Score:4, Interesting)
I've downloaded two different versions, wrestled with them for a while (first on dual-monitor support, later on sound card issues), and ultimately went back to Windows. I'm a geek, but even I'm not THAT much of a geek to stick with Linux apparently (though Ubuntu definitely was the most user-friendly Linux distro I've seen to date).
Re:Well, they screwed up with 11 (Score:3, Interesting)
aint gonna be drinking that koolaid.
gonna look for an alternative.
I'm yet to find anybody who like Unity outside of Ubuntu development. Anyone? Anyone at all? [youtube.com]
I like it, and I'm not involved in ubuntu. It's sort of beta-quality in some ways (mainly because you can't configure it much yet without going to configuration files), so if you have no enthusiasm for trying the new thing I would wait until the next release. It's only in October after all. Personally I enjoy experimenting with it, and I find it pretty sleek and very responsive. Have upgrade my laptops and will soon upgrade the office desktop as well.
Initially, all changes cause a little confusion, but that does not mean they are bad (like moving the x button to the left of windows... it is neither better nor worse on its own. After a few days you get used to it and it works just as well). Unity is also targeted at non-power users and new linux users, who do not have such strongly ingrained habits that resist change. And for that user segment I think it is successful. If they want to reach 200 million users they need to convince people from the windows/mac world to switch, after all.
Re:Good luck with that... (Score:4, Interesting)
Yeah, I'm pretty much in the same boat.
I do like some of the ubuntu derivatives, which seem to do a good job addressing the flaws in Debian and Ubuntu. Give Linux Mint [linuxmint.com] a try... which is pretty easy since it's distributed as a LiveCD/DVD with an install to HD option. It's what I've been recommending to people for a while.
I've even migrated my main server to it from Debian (my one gripe is that the installer doesn't support software RAID configurations as readily, but I'm used to setting those up manually anyway).
The other one I like for netbooks is eeebuntu [eeebuntu.org] 3. Haven't played with their Aurora beta yet, but eeebuntu was pretty good with getting an nice fully-featured compiz-fusion environment on my eeePC with most of the hardware and powersaver features supported out of the box.
Lost opportunity (Score:4, Interesting)
Ubuntu could have become the de-facto linux system for phones and tablets, but Android was faster.
Maybe after all what is the alternative? (Score:4, Interesting)
Tried CentOS, installer quits hard if you select at the end the wrong packages together, no warning or anything.
Fedora? Can't accept a HD formatted without partitions. Ubuntu can and under Linux it is perfectly valid. Why use MS-DOS partitions on a modern system?
Like it or hate it, Ubuntu is the mover and Shaker. Red Hat has gone corporate. Mandrake (or whatever its name is) has tried going commercial and is limping.
Countless others are gone or near gone.
Is Ubuntu next now it has gone for Unity? Maybe. As said, others have fallen from the leader of the pack before. Ubuntu for now remains the easiests to install for, the onewith the most active user base. Don't like Unity? 11.04 ain't a LTS so you don't have to switch yet. And KUbunutu is an easy switch as well as a switch to Gnome3 or any of the other options.
But Unity I think shows a worrying sign. What does it solve? One of the powers of linux is the ton of "add-ons" that are available for free and all of a sudden you have a desktop that can do nothing. Gnome3 ain't a solution, that piece of software seems determined to remove all options until nothing is left. Here is a hint Gnome team, when Unity is the more capable and customizable compared to Gnome3, YOU SCREWED UP!
KDE4? Don't even get me started.
Yes, there is room for improvement but you make it a LOT easier if you give us at least the basics. Alt-tab, was it such a horrific solution? Task bar? Why do you hate it such? App panel, what did it ever do to you?
200 million users? sure, if there are 200 million people for who a iPhone is just to complex and they want an interface with ZERO buttons, no touch screen, no interaction.
Don't get me wrong, I like Ubuntu Server edition but their desktop took a massive nosedive. aptitude is the best package management but what is the point if the package is unity or gnome3?
Stop fucking around with the desktop. Realize that a LOT of users switch of Aero on windows and have the same desktop they had 10 or more years ago. It works. Some improvements are possible but for god sakes, make sure the old proven and working elements still work.
Really, we went from a time applet that no longer can display the weather, no any weather option (both unity and gnome3) and needing to hold a key to turn off the computer. (Alt turns suspend into power off).
STOP REDUCING THE USABILITY!
But at its core, Ubuntu still is the most capable, see the earlier HD install option.
Just the desktop is pants but that is pants on Fedora 15 as well (Gnome3).
The real secret to developing a popular system is to remember that newbies are a very transient audience. A newbie won't be a newbie for long. It would be like marketing a condom for virgins. There are a lot of virgins in the world, especially here on slashdot, and they are bound to have sex sooner or later, except here on slashdot, but once they had sex they will need far more condoms then that one time "virgin" branded one.
Your OS user won't remain a newbie for long. You don't see many motor cycle companies aiming high at the learner market do you? Despite that a learner bike can be far more fun, the money is in the "experienced rider" market (the succors who think bigger is better)
Damn, guess motor cycle analogies aren't as good as car analogies.
Anyway, once the newbie linux user has started using it and figured out how to setup a dual monitor, he is going to be disappointed he can't set to different ones. That the login screen can no longer be themed.
It would be like Fisher Price deciding that their "My first XXX" line sells so well it will be easy to sell to adults and partner with Sony for a range of electronic devices. Nope.
Newbies becomes experienced users and then don't want anything to do anymore with a newbie only product.
Re:Yeah, I guess I'm counted on that list (Score:3, Interesting)
Re:Not bad. (Score:5, Interesting)
Civ:CTP: published March 1999, Loki released it in May 1999
HOMM 3: published February 1999, Loki released it in December 1999
Quake 3: published December 2, 1999. Loki released it December 7, 1999
SMAC: published February 1999 with the expansion pack released in 2000. Loki released it with the expansion pack in July 2000.
Loki was releasing current AAA games, their problems were with the financial management of the company, paying large sums to get the rights to AAA titles to port, overestimates of how many people would pay for the games (and they were pirated heavily by people that bought the Windows version and felt entitled to the Linux version for free) and with that an oversupply of retail packages (which is why you can still find some Loki games new in the box), and by trying to grow too big too fast.
I happened to buy most of what Loki put out while they were still in business because I was glad to be freed from Windows even if it meant I had to wait a staggering 5 days or even a couple months to get the games on my platform of choice. Waiting a few weeks is the price I paid to get what I wanted, much like you can eat a steak raw or take the time to cook and season it to your taste.
In the wake of Loki, the "main" Linux porting house became LGP and, yeah, I'll agree, they put out overpriced older B or C title games. I think they overcompensated for Loki's failure with the AAA market and, based over casual observation of the last couple years and the continuous catastrophes they seem to inflict upon themselves by being too low budget, I'm not sure how much longer they'll be around either. That doesn't mean there isn't a market for Linux games, only the two big porting houses got it wrong. Meanwhile, some publishers are quite happy putting out their own ports, whether they're done in house or contracted out For a major studio looking solely at the business aspect, Linux sales might not be worth the effort, but for smaller studios and indie developers, a Linux port may end up giving them a substantial influx of cash.
Re:Not bad. (Score:4, Interesting)
Linux does not have the home userbase Linux proponants like to think it does.
Yes it does. But since Windows is preinstalled on most new PCs anyway, dual-booting into Windows to play a game is better than waiting a year for a Linux version and being expected to pay $50 for it when the Windows version is $5.
Plus closed-source Linux software normally expects me to run an installer as root and installs its own copies of numerous libraries which probably have security holes; in some cases it even wants to add them to LD_LIBRARY_PATH by default, which is a crazy security risk.
I'd rather just keep a separate Windows PC or partition for games and do anything important in Linux.
Good luck with that! (Linux Mint) (Score:4, Interesting)
In nearly EVERY metric I can use, end users prefer Linux Mint. It's easier to use, cleaner, faster, has better default apps, a better default layout, and a better color scheme.
This is a completely realistic goal for Linux Mint.
Not for Ubuntu.*
*That is, unless they completely replace all of their leadership and clone the Mint philosophy, which doesn't seem likely.
Re:One right here! (Score:4, Interesting)
This last version of Ubuntu caused me some serious grief during the upgrade. Once installed I was unimpressed with Unity. I tried Gnome 3.0 a couple weeks back and I upgraded several machines to 4.6.x of KDE. My comparison of Unity is based on the design goals and functionality of those other products.
Gnome 3.0 and Unity appear to be targeting the GUI toward those same people that held back computers in the late 80s and early 90s. Those people were happy with the DOS menu systems where they typed a number or letter corresponding to a menu entry that launched a given program. Unity (and Gnome to some degree) is that represented in GUI form. It is NOT the answer and it will NOT contribute to those 200 million target users.
I have used Ubuntu for many years now. I have used computers since the early 80s. Ubuntu runs my primary machine. I have almost 20 Ubuntu machines in my shop. I use it for everything you can imagine and I don't find it difficult to learn nor to use. When Windows users come into the shop I sit them down in front of an Ubuntu machine. I simply direct them in the same way I would direct a Windows user--click here, select that, drag and drop there--without much resistance from the user.
But recently I have been thinking that Mark Shuttleworth needs to give Ubuntu away to some other group of people to manage. Canonical's direction just isn't cutting it, and dumbing it down isn't going to cure any woes. The problems are with the under-pinnings, not the GUI. For instance, I had a problem that pointed to the /var/lib/dpkg/status file had an error at or near a given line. No hint on what was wrong, no hint as to what that file was for, but an error that stopped the install and that wouldn't let me continue with the upgrade. I found an obscure reference to the error message, edited the file, and continued on. Then another error was generated and I needed to resolve it. Then another error, and another, and finally a reference to the same type of error in another file similar to the first one. Upon correcting that I was able to get the upgrade going again. Then after that I received even more errors making it was not possible to get to the GUI desktop -- on a computer that had been successfully running 10.10 for 6 months. After starting in recovery mode (safe start) I was able get into the desktop and download the updated nVidia drivers. I installed those drivers and continued till I was at the desktop. All in all, correcting those errors, cost me 6 hours of my day.
Whatever they are doing it isn't working and dumbing it down with hopes of attracting 200 million people won't succeed.
Some time ago they stated that Ubuntu had 12 million users with Fedora having 24 million. The other distros combined could easily bring that number between 75 million and 100 million users of Linux (not just Ubuntu).
I have the whole cadre of OS installs on various machines because that's what I do for a living. I don't think either the Macintosh nor Windows has the future potential of Linux. Let's just not let one man dumb down the OS interface to the point of it just being dumb.
Agreed. Debian Rolling for me. (Score:2, Interesting)
"You can count me out, with Unity/Gnome3."
Agreed, about Unity in particular. If they'd stuck to providing a BETTER debian, they'd have easily been able to accomplish this. But instead, they've chosen to differentiate themselves unnecessarily and impractically, segmenting their development / support base in the process. I've already been shopping around for alternative distros since. Unless I really like Mint (which I doubt), Debian's upcoming "Rolling" release will suit me fine. That'll essentially beat Ubuntu at it's own game (a more up to date Debian, a more stable sid).