Predicting Life 100 Years From Now 552
New submitter Simon321 writes "BBC News has an interesting article about the top predictions for life 100 years from now. The highlights include extensive farming of the ocean, wiring all sorts of computers to our brains, space elevators, and the break-up of the United States. 'There are some indications already that California wants to split off and such pressures tend to build over time. It is hard to see this waiting until the end of the century. Maybe an East Coast cluster will want to break off too. Pressures come from the enormous differences in wealth generation capability, and people not wanting to fund others if they can avoid it.'"
We'll go nowhere at this rate. (Score:1, Interesting)
Re:Oh, the Horseshit You Will Print! (Score:4, Interesting)
The South/Tea Party will break off well before Cali.
Eastern California (conservative) is very different from Western California (liberal) as well.
I think certain states should form providences and have more control, but I have no clue how that would happen smoothly.
Predictions... (Score:5, Interesting)
50 years ago, they were predicting flying cars, space travel, holographic TVs, etc by y2k but few of the things they predicted came true, and even of those that did most of them are not accessible to Joe Average. However, look at the one big thing most of them missed: The Internet and the consumer microcomputer revolution.
Predicting the somewhat distant future is great and all, but I'm sure there will be something huge that we never see coming and once it's there, we'll wonder how we ever lived without it.
We know one thing for sure. (Score:5, Interesting)
That there will be an ironic post about 20 top predictions from 100 years prior and snarky commentators will smugly wonder how we took any of this seriously.
Re:Oh, the Horseshit You Will Print! (Score:1, Interesting)
From approx Nevada west - a place for folks who are either atheist or agnostic and don't allow religion to factor into any of their opinions. East of Nevada - a place for theists who want things like pro-life, religion in schools, etc.
Split north / south - one region for people who strongly believe in low taxes, small government, etc - and other tea party type things. The other region for people who believe in full funding for schools, roads, etc., and that rich people aren't magic "job creators", etc.
Re:Oh, the Horseshit You Will Print! (Score:4, Interesting)
I agree. If anyone would break away from the US, it would be the southern states. California may be the capital of American liberalism, but they're getting along just fine as is. Still, the idea of anyone breaking away right now is ludicrous. The people who express such opinions are all toothless morons that nobody listens too anyway.
The worst predictions IMO (Score:5, Interesting)
Seriously? We have so much widespread extremism in the world that you probably couldn't get a majority of countries to agree that milk is white, and they think this'll get done in a measly 90 years?
"12. California will lead the break-up of the US (Dev 2) (Likelihood 8/10)"
The US has survived a civil war, a depression that makes this recession look like good times, corporate tyranny that even today seems unthinkable, they have the balls to call this that likely? Look, I'm not saying it can't happen -- it definitely can. But given how (increasingly) inter-dependent and weak the states are (compared to federal gov't powers), this prediction is brave to say the least.
"13. Space elevators will make space travel cheap and easy (Ahdok) (Likelihood 8/10)"
To be fair he says it won't be so cheap that the average person can afford it, but I think even suggesting that it could be done within 100 years is again brave. There are just so many obstacles that need to be overcome to make this happen; it could even turn out to be theoretically impossible to create materials that would be necessary.
"16. Deserts will become tropical forests (jim300) (Likelihood 7/10)"
More like 1/10. Where's the water coming from? Barring a breakthrough in energy tech that would allow us to cheaply distill sea water, it's never gonna happen (read: it's never gonna happen). The trend today is pretty much the opposite, and I don't see that trend reversing anytime soon in light of increasingly aggressive farming practices and global warming.
I'd love to be wrong though.
Re:California wants to split off (Score:5, Interesting)
No. Actually.
California is having budget issues mostly because the federal government is raping it, so that its wealth can be redistributed to Republican owned southern and midwestern states. Californians pay far more in federal tax than they receive back in federal benefits. If California was on its own and took those federal taxes itself, its debt would be gone almost immediately.
Re:California Secede? Unlikely (Score:5, Interesting)
Texas isn't going anywhere, either.
People who want to get elected in Texas use that to cadge votes, because it works, but once they find out you can't defend a nation with a posse carrying six-guns any more and the amount it will raise their taxes to become a real military power with a full Army, Air Force, Coast Guard (370 miles of coastline in the smugglingest water in America), and Border Patrol (1250 miles of border with Mexico, over 60% of the whole border; plus 1400 miles with New Mexico, Okalahoma, Arkansas, and Louisiana). Duplicating the rest of the functions of the federal government won't be a cakewalk, either, and don't pretend they'll just let that all fall flat. Economies of scale mean that being a part of the entire nation is cheaper than going it alone. And Texas' physical scale makes it more expensive to administer, not less. Throw in the added expense of commerce across borders, and no protections against tarriffs from the commerce clause, and businesses in the state doing any business out of state will be crippled.
And Texas is hardly monolithic. Split it off from the U.S. and the next thing that happens is that West Texas will insist on separating entirely from East Texas, and East Texas would be just fine with that. So there's only so far the political fixers in the state are willing to take the issue beyond claptrap at campaign rallies.
It's theater, nothing more.
Re:The worst predictions IMO (Score:4, Interesting)
The US has survived ... a depression that makes this recession look like good times
Check your numbers... the current depression has much worse numbers across the board than the G.D. Crazy, but true. The only numbers that are better are the numbers that are no longer comparable due to redefinition, such as endless redefinition of the unemployment rate, etc.
"Young People", defined as not living in the nursing home, have this strange idea that America in the 30s was as bad as Germany in the late 20s or late 40s, or Argentina for the past... century it seems. The GD just wasn't that bad, in fact in many ways, it was much better than now. Yes 1/4 of the population was un/under employed, just like now. Yes lots of people lost their homes, just like now. Yes excessive debt destroyed uncountable companies, just like now. Yes millions could not afford food and went to soup kitchens, just like now except we use technology and send them to super-walmart with EBT cards or whatever they're called. Yes we lost a lot of farmland and manufacturing jobs, but not as much as now. Yes fascism and quisling-ism was spreading, just like now. Yes plenty of blaming troubles on immigrants and minorities, just like now. Yes plenty of warmongering to jumpstart the economy, just like now.
For political reasons we can not admit it, but history will look back on this era as the second great depression.
Re:California wants to split off (Score:3, Interesting)
California sees less return on federal dollars than is taken in taxes.
Really? You mean the government can't give out more money to the states than it takes in in taxes... oh right, I suppose it does that all the time.
California has a whopping 12.5% unemployment, and managed to double their state spending in 10 years. Let me repeat that: double, from 1998 to 2008. One does not have to be a conservative to realize that California has a spending problem. Everyone there realizes it. One of the highest tax rates in the country, and they still can't find enough money.
Re:Oh, the Horseshit You Will Print! (Score:4, Interesting)
Mod parent up. The Republican party is disintegrating because while they point their fingers at each other screaming "RINO! RINO!" the fact is that just about everyone but Ron Paul is Conservative In Name Only. Oh, they'll tell you how they'll cut the Energy department and the Education department, and they'll make a lot of noise about unions (except the police unions, they vote Republican) and they'll make a lot of noise about cutting spending (except for in their state, and even Ron's a perpetrator of this, excusing it by claiming that principles be damned, when everyone else is sidling up to the trough he's doing Texas a disfavor by not pigging out with the rest of the hogs) and smaller government (except for the parts that prop up their campaign donors and inspect citizens' bedrooms, monitor everything they smoke, read their email, fondle their kids, xray them when they fly, ride a train, drive a car, and so on).
Actions speak louder than words. The Republican party is doomed, and it's entirely the "moderates" fault, only the people screaming about moderates have been shown to be some of the worst of the lot despite their words.
100 years from now... (Score:5, Interesting)
Comment removed (Score:4, Interesting)
Re:The worst predictions IMO (Score:5, Interesting)
Hard to admit- but I think in delta quality of life, the Great Recession has been WORSE. It's one thing to go from living in a sod house suffering from dust related tuberculosis to wandering the country sleeping in your car (Grapes of Wrath). It's quite another thing entirely to go from a 4000 square foot McMansion with six TV sets and air conditioning and central heating, to wandering your neighborhood sleeping in your car, to losing the car when you can no longer afford gas for it and your neighbors have it towed as an eyesore.
I work on the board of directors for an organization serving the homeless- and our volunteers report the streets are getting MEAN from the anger- to the point of homeless people beating each other up over not having cigarettes.
Re:California wants to split off (Score:5, Interesting)
According to the libertarian (and Koch-funded) Tax Foundation, California has paid more into federal coffers than it has taken in federal spending since 1986 ( http://www.taxfoundation.org/research/show/22685.html [taxfoundation.org] page 5). And its share that it has given has grown in relation to the amount that it has taken.
There are eighteen states that actually pay their own way, or better, according to the latest data they have collected
( http://www.taxfoundation.org/research/show/266.html [taxfoundation.org] they're in the process of collecting funds for an updated look at more recent numbers). Seventeen of those states went for Obama / Biden in 2008.
One does not have to be a conservative to pass judgment on states leeching government money, but it helps perhaps to be in one when 94.4% of the states that do pay their own way went Democratic in the last Presidential election.
The question is therefore not "why is California spending so much more?", but why are the Red States outstripping California's spending with nothing to back up THEIR leeching ways, playing bootstrappy cowboy at the expense of people in LA, New York, Chicago, etc.?
Re:The worst predictions IMO (Score:4, Interesting)
I think you're underestimating the importance of the social safety net that was created after (and as a result of) the Great Depression: "In 1940, 40% of draftees were rejected, most of them because of malnutrition, bad teeth and eyesight--all results of the Depression." [museumofworldwarii.com]
Let that sink in for a minute.
It's easy to complain about the debt incurred in the government's response to this recession. Our ancestors already witnessed the alternative. It was horrendous.
Re:Oh, the Horseshit You Will Print! (Score:4, Interesting)
I'd personally like to see northern California (I'm not so sure about the southern part; that seems to be the source of most of their budget problems) break off, and join with Oregon and Washington and become a new country. Between Silicon Valley, Portland, and Seattle, the economy in that region is huge, leading the world even. California itself already has the 6th-largest (I think, maybe it's 8th) economy in the whole world, all by itself. Again, I'm not sure how much of that is from the south vs. the north, but I theorize that the north might have the majority because of Silicon Valley. OR and WA also have tons of tech companies. Together, they'd be a great economic power if they could just keep the SanFran liberals under control so they don't ruin the budget. (I'm not arguing for extremist Tea Party principles here, just some moderation; you can't keep your government afloat when you're spending more money than you take in in tax revenue on free services for everyone.)
It'd be even better if they could get British Columbia break away from Canada and join them, as Vancouver is also very strong in tech, and is also an important shipping port for access to the rest of Canada. The local cultures between Vancouver and WA/OR seem to be fairly similar too. Surely the Vancouverites have more in common with Seattle residents than with Quebec residents.
Re:We'll go nowhere at this rate. (Score:4, Interesting)
Exactly. Building a space elevator, while I'm certain is completely possible from a technical point-of-view, would require an enormous amount of money, and it'd be a while before any profits are realized. Investors are very short-sighted; if they can't realize a profit in 3-5 years, then they have no interest.
Re:Oh, the Horseshit You Will Print! (Score:5, Interesting)
If you don't get out of the south at age 21, you are screwed.
Unless you live in Huntsville. I lived there for awhile in the 90s. Strange place, it was like everyone who knew anything went to Huntsville. Because of NASA and the missile development contractors etc. Everyone had a security clearance and was involved in something interesting. If you didn't want to be the only literate person in your rural village, but still wanted to eat grits and pecan pie, you moved to Huntsville and got a govt job building missiles and whatever. I donno what its like now, but it was a heck of a great place as a young technological man in the 90s. I still culturally attach myself to the hightech redneck meme or whatever, even 20 years later.
The culture, though, remains in place
It was a weird experience to tune the radio around and hear American Dissident Voices being broadcast. It can take some getting used to. Also, everyone, and I mean everyone, seems to go to church or lies and says they do and nothing but evangelical christianity for the whites, baptist for the blacks, and catholicism for the illegals exists, as in mentally provincially no other religious existence is even conceivable or expressible. Its not all bad, some of the nicest folks I've met have followed the southern gentleman ideal of hospitality and respect, and the brotherhood of hightech rednecks knows no limit, if you know how to program a microcontroller and cut threads on a metal lathe and you meet another hightech redneck its like you're insta-adopted into the family, which is nice and friendly but sure takes a bit to get used to for a frigid northerner.
Look at the history of predictions for precedent (Score:4, Interesting)
In 1900 some predictions were made by "most learned and conservative minds in America" about what life would be like in 100 years. Now that it's a decade past that deadline, let's take a look at how they fared:
http://www.yorktownhistory.org/homepages/1900_predictions.htm [yorktownhistory.org]
Interestingly, they got some of them right. But these were mostly about the spread of technology that already existed at the consumer level, and all good futurists know that predicting price drops in manufactured conveniences is usually a safe bet.
Some of my favorites (with a few of my comments):
- Gymnastics will begin in the nursery, where toys and games will be designed to strengthen the muscles. A man or woman unable to walk ten miles at a stretch will be regarded as a weakling. (Ha!) ...coal will have become more and more expensive. Man will have found electricity manufactured by waterpower to be much cheaper. Every river or creek with any suitable fall will be ... making electricity.
- There Will Be No Street Cars in Our Large Cities. All hurry traffic will be below or high above ground when brought within city limits. In most cities it will be confined to broad subways or tunnels, well lighted and well ventilated, or to high trestles with “moving-sidewalk” stairways leading to the top. These underground or overhead streets will teem with capacious automobile passenger coaches and freight with cushioned wheels. Subways or trestles will be reserved for express trains. Cities, therefore, will be free from all noises. (Ha!)
- No Mosquitoes nor Flies. Insect screens will be unnecessary. Mosquitoes, house-flies and roaches will have been practically exterminated. Boards of health will have destroyed all mosquito haunts and breeding-grounds, drained all stagnant pools, filled in all swamp-lands, and chemically treated all still-water streams.
- Strawberries as Large as Apples will be eaten by our great-great-grandchildren for their Christmas dinners a hundred years hence. One cantaloupe will supply an entire family. Melons, cherries, grapes, plums, apples, pears, peaches and all berries will be seedless.
- There will be No C, X or Q in our every-day alphabet. They will be abandoned because unnecessary. Spelling by sound will have been adopted, first by the newspapers. English will be a language of condensed words expressing condensed ideas, and will be more extensively spoken than any other. Russian will rank second.
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- Hot and Cold Air from Spigots. Hot or cold air will be turned on from spigots to regulate the temperature of a house as we now turn on hot or cold water from spigots to regulate the temperature of the bath. Central plants will supply this cool air and heat to city houses in the same way as now our gas or electricity is furnished. Rising early to build the furnace fire will be a task of the olden times. Homes will have no chimneys, because no smoke will be created within their walls. (They sort of got the end result right, but not the means)
- Vegetables Grown by Electricity. In cold weather he will place heat-conducting electric wires under the soil of his garden and thus warm his growing plants. Electric currents applied to the soil will make valuable plants grow larger and faster, and will kill troublesome weeds.
- Few drugs will be swallowed or taken into the stomach unless needed for the direct treatment of that organ itself. Drugs needed by the lungs, for instance, will be applied directly to those organs through the skin and flesh. They will be carried with the electric current applied without pain to the outside skin of the body.
- There will be no wild animals except in menageries. Rats and mice will have been exterminated.
- To England in Two Days. Fast electric ships, crossing the ocean at more than a mile a minute, will go from New York to Liverpool in two days.
Prophets always make the same predictions: we'll have better versions of
Dark future (Score:4, Interesting)
A hundred years from now,
If things don't blow up, most people will live in conditions we consider to be poverty with regard to food, water usage, and vacation today.
However, there will be a lot of electronic entertainment and it's possible that via direct input to the brain we'll have the experience of great vacations and fine food which would mitigate that.
We'll have so many people crammed on the planet that a decent lifestyle will be impossible unless we find a way to directly manufacture food from energy.
If things do blow up...
We'll be mostly dead from bio warfare
Or actual warfare disrupting food transportation resulting in the death of billions.
Or a small scale nuclear war with similar effects.
Or a mass dieoff when the oceans finish collapsing, some kind of virus kills our monoculture crops, and we just can't produce enough food and distribute enough water to keep things going.
And it's increasingly likely the future will be as predicted in the 50's. An eternity of the boot of the rulers on the face of humanity without end as the weapons become good enough and the social control systems become effective enough that revolution is no longer possible.