Advance Warning System For Solar Flares Hinges On Surprising Hypothesis 199
cylonlover writes "Scientists may have hit upon a new means of predicting solar flares more than a day in advance, which hinges on a hypothesis dating back to 2006 that solar activity affects the rate of decay of radioactive materials on Earth. Study of the phenomenon could lead to a new system which monitors changes in gamma radiation emitted from radioactive materials, and if the underlying hypothesis proves correct (abstract), this could lead to solar flare advance warning systems that would assist in the protection of satellites, power systems and astronauts."
Re:But then (Score:5, Informative)
There's an enormous difference between the rate of decay, and predicting a decay. The observation is only the rate is effected, not the occurrence of an individual decay.
Re:Rubbish (Score:5, Informative)
That is definitely not true. Radioactive decay through electron capture is well known to depend on external factors, including pressure and temperature. Inverse beta decay is an induced decay which depends entirely on an external neutrino flux, such as that from the sun.
Re:Rubbish (Score:5, Informative)
Nothing can effect the rate of decay of radioactive materials; it is, has been, and always will be constant. Just like the carbon 12/14 balance.
Half right half wrong.
Here's a whole section of crazy weird isotopes in crazy weird situations undergoing crazy weird decay modes that can be altered:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radioactive_decay#Changing_decay_rates [wikipedia.org]
So in general that half of the statement is wrong because there's a microscopic handful of really weird, pretty well understood outliers.
On the other hand your very specific ref to carbon isotope decay rate is apparently correct. That's very well understood, heavily studied, trivially cheaply and repeatedly tested (nice short half lives, more or less).
Re:But then (Score:5, Informative)
Atomic clocks aren't based on radioactive decay. Just because they have "atom" in their name doesn't mean they are nuclear, e.g. based on a phenomenon in the atom core. Instead atomic clocks are based on the properties of the electron shells around the atom core.
(Or to put it that way: atomic clocks are based on electromagnetics, not on the strong or the weak interaction.)
Re:Variable rate of decay? (Score:2, Informative)
I call shenanigans (Score:2, Informative)
The paper on the effect is in a peer-reviewed journal, and the authors do not appear to be crackpots, but I notice that the abstract at least does not quote a confidence level for the result. And using an effect this speculative to base a solar weather prediction technology on, however, is pure idiocy.
Re:But then (Score:5, Informative)
Don't be silly, it's based on neutrinos.
They THEORIZE it's based on neutrinos. They have no concrete evidence yet, I hold out for a more exciting explanation, because a new fundamental force would be way more awesome. Being neutrino-induced would be relatively boring.
No. They HYPOTHESIZE that it is based on neutrinos.
Re:I call politics (Score:4, Informative)
There are many nonsupporting papers for this.
http://arxiv.org/abs/1006.5071 [arxiv.org] (there are many more but you can find yourself if you are interested)
If it was replicated easily then it would be a cause for a rethink but its not. It would also require new physics to explain and that by itself requires the strongest rigor before being accepted.
Re:Rubbish (Score:5, Informative)
The key though is that is beta decay. A process that neutrinos don't participate in.
Say what? How does beta decay conserve lepton number without producing an antineutrino?
Re:Smell test (Score:4, Informative)
Experiments have been done. They don't match these findings. (http://www.nist.gov/mml/analytical/14c_091410.cfm)