Complex Systems Theorists Predict We're About One Year From Global Food Riots 926
pigrabbitbear writes with conjecture on what triggers global unrest. Quoting the article: "In a 2011 paper, researchers at the Complex Systems Institute unveiled a model that accurately explained why the waves of unrest that swept the world in 2008 and 2011 crashed when they did. The number one determinant was soaring food prices. Their model identified a precise threshold for global food prices that, if breached, would lead to worldwide unrest."
Re:Still Wrong (Score:5, Informative)
Not a lack of food. A lack of cheap food. When you spend a large percentage of your income on food, it matters more.
Re:Still Wrong (Score:2, Informative)
Even during the great depression food riots only rarely occurred and while there was civil unrest it was far from panic or massive
The kind of riots are tough to happen because if the global food supply that fresh fruit you just bought probably has traveled more milessince it was a seed than you will this entire year.
Now shut down the plnes trains and trucks and then the food riots will appear
Re:So Start Global Gardening Riots (Score:2, Informative)
The problem is NOT a lack of farmland.....
Something I've been watching... (Score:5, Informative)
I don't think they're wrong. I own about 500 acres of farmland that I rent out and this is something I've been watching the past couple years and something that a lot of the ag people have been warning about is the fact even the United States as of right now has less than a 90 day carry over (seems like I read something the other day that the supply had now dropped to something like 60 days). The carry over was 18 months in the 1950's. Frankly I find that a little scary.
That means that if there is a major disruption somewhere in the supply chain(oil supplies disrupted), another summer or two like this past one, or some major event like a large volcanic eruption on the scale of Krakatoa with global weather impact and the United States is 3 months away from having no food. This isn't the price becomes too high for people to afford, this is literally THERE IS NO FOOD. The physical supply doesn't exist. And that's kind of scary.
Let's just take this past summer. The United States produces roughly 40% of the world's corn. We'll be lucky to produce half that due to the weather this summer. That means globally about 20% of the global supply of corn this year is gone, it doesn't exist this year. Furthermore drought in Russia, Europe, and Australia means they aren't having bumper crops to offset that loss.
Short term that means people will likely turn to rice to replace corn as their staple. Rice prices aren't much changed from a year ago. (We raise Rice and Soybeans so that's what I primarily pay attention to). Soybean prices on the other hand are the highest I've seen it in my lifetime. And I remember early in the summer the commodity traders were assuming a near perfect yield this year in the prices of corn and soybeans, et. al. and that was *before* the drought. (I know, why those idiots were assuming that in the first place is another discussion)
What has surprised me is how little this gets reported in the main stream press. The only reason I know anything about it is the fact I own farms and read some of the ag publications so I have some idea of what is going on in that world.
Re:Still Wrong (Score:5, Informative)
My great grandmother begs to differ enough that I had to give her THREE Swedish fish to calm her down. Downplaying the poverty and struggle of that era is a gross troll. People ate days old "bread" soaked in maple syrup, scooping off the mold. They rationed toilet paper because they COULDN'T AFFORD an extra roll, or they would starve. Pump your brakes, turn around, and go back the way you came.
Re:Burning food for transport (Score:5, Informative)
Re:Catastrophe (Score:2, Informative)
Direct link to the work: http://www.necsi.edu/
Re:Catastrophe (Score:3, Informative)
Maybe 5 years? (Score:4, Informative)
what you bought actually only has a 2 year shelf life, I don't care what their marketing department tells you.
The supplier's website says that with mild, dry storage conditions, the food is good for up to 25 years. My guess is their estimate is closer to the truth than yours.
How long has that supplier been in business? How long has the manufacturer of the goods they carry been in business? I'd be a little concerned about some company just jumping on the Y2K, Mayan 2012, etc bandwagon and not planning on being around for very long (in the fly-by-night business sense, not the apocalypse sense). I'd want to know a little more about who is making that 25 year claim.
Plus a supplier's claim is more suspicious than a manufacturer's claim. I saw some sort of food hoarder on TV with a similar cache. I recognize one of the brand names, "Mountain House" a quite respectable company making food for backpackers and such. The hoarder claimed something around 25 years too. Strange, the "Mountain House" freeze dried dehydrated vacuum sealed food packets I recently purchased for a backpacking trip had a use by 2017 date, a 5 year shelf life.
Re:Still Wrong (Score:5, Informative)
And how exactly do you propose to create this rising tide? By cutting taxes to the wealthy, and somehow, out of a sense of honor and obligation, they will gladly replace the lost government funds that go into education, work programs, etc.? And how would this help anyone on welfare when the causes of a recession are external such as, I dunno, the meltdown of a major currency over which the United States has absolutely no control whatsoever?
You don't have a model. You have an ideological religion, and one that would prove quickly intolerable to the majority of society. Governments since Rome, and probably long before, figured out that if you don't keep the masses fed, at the very least you create massive social, and ultimately political instability. Hence the "bread" in "bread and circuses". Yes, it cost the Roman treasury plenty of coin, much of that gained from taxes, but the alternative was riots and social disorder, which were much more costly.
You don't prefer simplicity, you prefer magical Libertarian invocations. Back in the real world, real people, often through no fault of their own, face crises of an existential nature; whether it is health woes, long-term unemployment or underemployment, natural and man-made disasters. I would like you to go to them and prattle at them about how cutting them off at the knees will make the walk tall.