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Congressional Testimony: A Surprising Consensus On Climate 370

Lasrick writes: Many legislators regularly deny that there is a scientific consensus, or even broad scientific support, for government action to address climate change. Researchers recently assessed the content of congressional testimony related to either global warming or climate change from 1969 to 2007. For each piece of testimony, they recorded several characteristics about how the testimony discussed climate. For instance, noting whether the testimony indicated that global warming or climate change was happening and whether any climate change was attributable (in part) to anthropogenic sources. The results: Testimony to Congress—even under Republican reign—reflects the scientific consensus that humans are changing our planet's climate.
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Congressional Testimony: A Surprising Consensus On Climate

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  • by Calydor ( 739835 ) on Thursday September 03, 2015 @07:45PM (#50454609)

    Sadly there is no scientific consensus on whether this method of determining a consensus works or not.

    • by Layzej ( 1976930 ) on Thursday September 03, 2015 @08:28PM (#50454811)
      It's probably a skewed result because half of the testimonies will have been selected by republicans because they are reject the mainstream science. This makes the finding even more surprising. For a more balanced view you can look to the statements made by scientific organizations.

      Statements by scientific organizations of national or international standing - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]

      Concurring:

      over 50 organizations including the Royal Society, American Chemical Society, American Institute of Physics, American Physical Society, Australian Institute of Physics, European Physical Society, etc, etc, etc.

      Dissenting:

      NONE

      • by Anonymous Coward on Thursday September 03, 2015 @09:13PM (#50455011)

        GOP Science Bill [sciencemag.org]
        Yep, the GOP passed a bill requiring legislation based on science be open and reproducible. The DNC and the president, who promised to veto the bill, said there is no room for open science in legislation.

        But, its the GOP that is anti-science....

        Whats it called when you refuse to allow science to be reproducible and open. I think that used the be the platform of the Catholic Church back when Galileo was alive. Even the Catholic Church has modernized more than you and the DNC.

        • by Crashmarik ( 635988 ) on Friday September 04, 2015 @12:57AM (#50455591)

          GOP Science Bill [sciencemag.org]
          Yep, the GOP passed a bill requiring legislation based on science be open and reproducible. The DNC and the president, who promised to veto the bill, said there is no room for open science in legislation.

          But, its the GOP that is anti-science....

          Whats it called when you refuse to allow science to be reproducible and open. I think that used the be the platform of the Catholic Church back when Galileo was alive. Even the Catholic Church has modernized more than you and the DNC.

          See you ran into a leftist with a grudge.

          I love the way they support inconvenient truths, but go out of their way to bury inconvenient facts.

        • Re: (Score:3, Informative)

          by dywolf ( 2673597 )

          Look, a troll talking about a troll bill.

        • Re: (Score:3, Informative)

          by khelms ( 772692 )
          "Open and Reproducible" is a nice phrase. It sounds so sensible, how could anyone be against it.? If you read the articles linked to, you find the bill requires EPA to jump through hoops and obtain the raw data that went into third-party peer-reviewed studies. Often times, that raw data contains names and facts about individuals and releasing it would have privacy concerns.

          This bill is about adding extra, unnecessary work in an attempt to slow down and hobble the EPA, not about "open science".
          • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

            by Hellpop ( 451893 )

            So you prefer an EPA that is unrestricted and does not have to prove anything. Like we have right now? Secret Science? That's sad.

        • by AK Marc ( 707885 )
          No the bill would have de-funded medical studies and climate studies by targeting the types of studies they do, and making them impossible.

          It wasn't about "open data". It was about "Anti-science".
      • by l0n3s0m3phr34k ( 2613107 ) on Friday September 04, 2015 @01:38AM (#50455663)
        I honestly think that, on a personal level, they do believe it. But when it comes to their base and who actually pays for their campaigns (Koch brothers, oil money, etc) then they will vote as they have been told to do by their paymasters.
        • I honestly think that, on a personal level, they do believe it. But when it comes to their base and who actually pays for their campaigns (Koch brothers, oil money, etc) then they will vote as they have been told to do by their paymasters.

          That is probably true for many more issues than this, and not just for politicians. I don't think most people have really made the adjustment to the fact that in a democracy, their opinions matter, so forming them based on ideology - or even what's best for yourself rathe

        • Comment removed based on user account deletion
      • by BCGlorfindel ( 256775 ) <klassenk&brandonu,ca> on Friday September 04, 2015 @08:32AM (#50456513) Journal

        It's probably a skewed result because half of the testimonies will have been selected by republicans because they are reject the mainstream science. This makes the finding even more surprising. For a more balanced view you can look to the statements made by scientific organizations.

        Statements by scientific organizations of national or international standing - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]

        Concurring:

        over 50 organizations including the Royal Society, American Chemical Society, American Institute of Physics, American Physical Society, Australian Institute of Physics, European Physical Society, etc, etc, etc.

        Dissenting:

        NONE

        You are missing what parts scientists are well agreed upon:
        1.The instrumental record, which spans about 100 years, shows a clear warming trend.
        2. CO2 is a greenhouse gas and increasing it's concentration will increase heat storage.
        3. CO2 concentrations as observed for about the last 60ish years have been increasing.
        4. Humans have been steadily contributing CO2 to the atmosphere for about the last 100 years.
        5. The above points clearly are strong evidence that the recent warming has been influenced by human behaviour.

        That about encompasses the consensus. 90% of everything that everyone is talking about though does NOT have a broad consensus and is still being actively studied, things like:
        1.What quantitative relationship do our CO2 emissions have to future temperature change?
        2. What cost is there to us from future temperature change.
        3. What cost is there to us for reducing our CO2 emissions by a set factor.

        Climate models are one of the key parts to answering these questions, and they are getting better at helping us study our theories on how climate works. Regrettably, the reality is that climate models still do NOT accurately predict or model global Top Of Atmosphere energy imbalance. One of the key tuning processes in model development is still adjusting loosely bound or poorly understood parameters, like clouds, to force a reasonable behaviour of global TOA energy. I hate to have to point it out, but long term predictions of climate, are pretty much entirely driven by TOA energy imbalance as it IS the entirety of the greenhouse effect.

        • You can read the individual statements of the science academies. ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org] ) They go much further than simply stating that radiative physics is a real thing. Most state that the IPCC represents the consensus view and that most of the warming over the last 50 years is due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations.

          I wouldn't expect a science academy to make judgments on the economic impact. For that you could go to economists: "There is a strong consensus among the top eco

          • You can read the individual statements of the science academies. ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org] ) They go much further than simply stating that radiative physics is a real thing. Most state that the IPCC represents the consensus view and that most of the warming over the last 50 years is due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations.

            Thank you for confirming what I said. The IPCC's Fifth Assessment report is almost verbatim where my assessment of climate models came from. In Chapter 9, Box 9.1 the IPCC report states:
            For instance, maintaining the global mean top of the atmosphere (TOA) energy balance in a simulation of pre-industrial climate is essential to prevent
            the climate system from drifting to an unrealistic state. The models used in this report almost universally contain adjustments to parameters in their treatment of clouds to f

            • by Layzej ( 1976930 )
              I'm glad we agree. The IPCC represents the best scientific knowledge of our time, but there are uncertainties. That's why the climate sensitivity is given by the IPCC as a range rather than a specific value. "global mean equilibrium warming for doubling CO2 (to a concentration of 560 ppmv), or equilibrium climate sensitivity, very likely is greater than 1.5 C (2.7 F) and likely to lie in the range 2 to 4.5 C (4 to 8.1 F), with a most likely value of about 3 C (5 F)."
    • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

      by Anonymous Coward

      And regardless of whether there is a concensus or not, science is not driven by concensus.

      • by Layzej ( 1976930 ) on Thursday September 03, 2015 @11:13PM (#50455387)
        Of course not, but the consensus is driven by the science. That makes it a useful heuristic.
        • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

          by Crashmarik ( 635988 )

          Of course not, but the consensus is driven by the science. That makes it a useful heuristic.

          LOL, if it's being argued before congress it's being driven by money.

          Ask Al Gore the king of carbon cap trading.
          Ask the people made out like bandits on ethanol mandates.

          • by Sique ( 173459 )

            Ask Al Gore the king of carbon cap trading.

            Ask the people made out like bandits on ethanol mandates.

            You sound as if you don't like it when people turn their knowledge into money.

  • Anarchy in Science (Score:4, Interesting)

    by trout007 ( 975317 ) on Thursday September 03, 2015 @08:18PM (#50454757)

    The whole reason science in general works is because there are no leaders. Consensus means nothing. The only problem is that science can never discover the "Truth" (tm). The best it can do is come up with a model that has yet to be disproven. If there is no way to disprove it is faith not science.

    • Models aren't "proven or disproven", they're not found to be 100% correct or 0% correct, they're approximations. They can of course be tested by making predictions - which will also not be 100% or 0% correct. The only relevant question is, are the predictions accurate enough to be useful?

      Your model of how science works appears to be a poor approximation, as science has indeed turned out to be useful.

      • by trout007 ( 975317 ) on Thursday September 03, 2015 @09:17PM (#50455025)

        An important part of creating a model is listing your assumptions. Hence the Physics jokes about spherical cows. An important part of science is figuring out of those assumptions are general.

        So Newton's model of gravity was incorret because we have proved it doesn't work in certain circumstances. So far General Relativity (unless I'm mistaken) is the best model we have so far because we have not found evidence it's wrong yet.

        This doesn't mean Newton's model isn't useful as long as you are aware of the assumptions and their limitations.

        • Newton's model of gravity was incorrect

          This is not a useful assertion, as you could say that about everything outside of pure mathematics. Newton's model of gravity turns out to be still quite useful, as it is mostly correct - good enough for most terrestrial uses. Likewise, we already know General Relativity isn't perfect either, but it's a better approximation, sufficient for most non-terrestrial uses too.

          Most people are well aware that there no absolutes in reality (certainly most scientists), so declaring commonly-used models to be "incorrec

          • by khallow ( 566160 )

            This is not a useful assertion, as you could say that about everything outside of pure mathematics.

            That statement is logically incorrect. For if you were correct, then the above statement being outside of pure mathematics would be incorrect by its own assertion.

            Plus the previous poster already granted the basic idea by saying:

            This doesn't mean Newton's model isn't useful as long as you are aware of the assumptions and their limitations.

            They already state why incorrectness matters - when you try to apply the model beyond the regime where it works.

            Most people are well aware that there no absolutes in reality (certainly most scientists), so declaring commonly-used models to be "incorrect" or "disproven" does not advance the discussion - rather, it seems to more often be used in attempts to undermine the scientific case against the declarator's beliefs.

            That doesn't mean the effort is invalid. To the contrary, it is more often a valid, scientific reason for rejecting the model in question. For example, a universal prob

            • That statement is logically incorrect.

              It's actually mostly correct - which is my entire point. Few things are so black & white.

              They already state why incorrectness matters

              Limitations and assumptions do matter of course, but misleading usage of the term "incorrect" is the issue I'm referring to. Unless if by "incorrectness" you mean "the degree to which this differs from perfectly correct in all cases", in which case you could maybe try out the term "accuracy" instead.

              To the contrary, it is more often a valid, scientific reason for rejecting the model in question.

              I still feel you're arguing about something I'm not. To restate, declaring something to be "incorrect" because it's no

          • by jabuzz ( 182671 )

            Actually nobody has made any measurement that cannot be accounted for by General Relativity. There is as such no direct evidence that it is wrong.

            We assume that it is not the whole picture because we don't know how to marry it to the Standard Model and do calculations on the quantum scale. That could simply be because we are not clever enough to work out how to use it at quantum scales.

            This is different from Newton's gravitational laws, which before General Relativity came along where unable to explain obse

        • Hence the Physics jokes about spherical cows.

          Cows are not spherical. They are fractal:

          http://mndl.hu/2008-02-01-frac... [mndl.hu]

  • On this planet cultural ideology is the rule that all must obey.

  • by Somebody Is Using My ( 985418 ) on Thursday September 03, 2015 @08:33PM (#50454831) Homepage

    1) There is no such thing as climate change
    2) Climate change exists, but it isn't happening now.
    3) The climate is changing, but it isn't being caused by humans
    4) The climate is being changed by humans, but we can't (or shouldn't) do anything about it.
    5) We could have averted climate change, but it is too late now.

    Apparently, we've just passed step 3. With step 4, expect a deluge of reports about how we shouldn't try messing with the climate because we just don't understand it well enough and probably will make things worse, or because any benefits from changes WE make will be lost because THEY following suit (for various values of "they", but most likely China or India) or because the potential loss of revenue to a few entitled mega-corporations is far too important to risk by imposing ecologically-responsible regulations. In short, the arguments will be that since we can't make everything 100% better, why should we make any attempt at all?

    Climate change deniers will continue to be wrong until we reach step 5, when they will suddenly - and to all our misfortune - be right. We can only hope that the ecological mess they cause in the name of short-term profits won't be so catastrophic for the rest of us.

    • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

      by Anonymous Coward

      6) Make false apocalyptic claims about the end of the world. Then when proven wrong, make different, even more apocalyptic claims about the end of the world.

    • You are being very unfair to the real debate. You are skipping over the magnitude of what is happening. The degree of certainty over what is happening. The magnitude of the effect it will have. Other uses of resources needed to mitigate out. There really is no serious denialism. You can't deny facts. What you can deny is the conclusions which have involved guess work or poor economics Even if you believe global warming and fully accept IPCC summary for policy makers, there is basically no scientific reaso
      • by martas ( 1439879 )

        The best economic estimates are that free market adaptation will cost a few prevent of world GDP decades from now.

        Source? To my knowledge, while there is overwhelming scientific consensus that a certain amount of AGW has happened and will happen, there isn't so much consensus about the extent of damage it will cause. I've heard nightmare scenarios of worldwide dustbowls, wildfires, frequent hurricanes, dozens/hundreds of millions of migrants, wars over water rights, etc etc, and that's without even getting into methane gun territory. While there is no certainty any of that will actually occur, I don't think there is an

      • by Uberbah ( 647458 )

        You are being very unfair to the real debate.

        As much as Bill Nye was being unfair when he wouldn't consider the possibility that the Earth is only 6,000 years old.

        You are skipping over the magnitude of what is happening. The degree of certainty over what is happening. The magnitude of the effect it will have. Other uses of resources needed to mitigate out. There really is no serious denialism.

        That's a combination of one through four in the aforementioned stages of climate denial.

        Even if you believe globa

    • Actually, we're past step 5... but people are still looking for money to "solve" it while knowing (or should know) that we're already past the point of no return.

      We just have to learn to adapt to Earth in the future, that's all.

    • I actually agree with #4 in a way. I think most of the "geoengineering" ideas have a decent chance of having some horrible back firing and making everything worse. The iron filings in the ocean might work OK, but I think the idea of "sulfur dumped into active volcanoes" isn't the best idea.
  • From TFA:

    Many legislators regularly deny that there is a scientific consensus, or even broad scientific support, for government action to address climate change.

    And this:

    For instance, we noted whether the testimony indicated that global warming or climate change was happening and whether any climate change was attributable (in part) to anthropogenic sources.

    There is an enormous chasm between these two ideas. Yes there is a broad concensus that we are changing the composition of our atmosphere and this should cause the planet to warm to some extent. *Alot* of sceptics agree with this. But there is no consensus on what the level of warming will be nor is there consensus on the idea that the changes are harmful/damaging to our interests or the planet or that an urgent mitigation based policy framework is needed. There is an enormous amount of

    • But there is no consensus on what the level of warming will be

      You are right on this. There is no consensus on whether it will be bad or very bad.

      nor is there consensus on the idea that the changes are harmful/damaging to our interests

      If by "our interests" you mean the human race as a world, then you are wrong. The changes are definitely damaging, as a whole, even tough some individuals will obviously benefit.

      or the planet

      On the contrary, there is a consensus that the planet will be just fine with or without global warming, and with or without humans or even life. But that was never the question.

      or that an urgent mitigation based policy framework is needed

      This part is no longer the scientific debate but the political one. Obviou

    • There is an enormous chasm between these two ideas.

      Not so much.

      Yes there is a broad concensus that we are changing the composition of our atmosphere and this should cause the planet to warm to some extent. *Alot* of sceptics agree with this. But there is no consensus on what the level of warming will be nor is there consensus on the idea that the changes are harmful/damaging to our interests or the planet or that an urgent mitigation based policy framework is needed. There is an enormous amount of disagreement here, scientific disagreement, as there should be because honest truth is we do not know what impacts are likely to be and there are plenty of competing points of view, in literature on this.

      We have extensive analysis from one side and moaning, conspiracy theories and lies form the other. If there is uncertainty, this means deviation from the best known predictions of likely outcomes, which are the prediction produced by science. If there is deviation, it is just as likely to deviate in a way that is worse than the prediction as it is to be better than what was predicted. That is what uncertainty means.

      So we have:

      1. Scientists, who are giving predictions, along with working and

      • "2. FOX News, conspiracy theorists, and bloggers who make contradictory, conflicting claims about why the scientists are wrong, but produce no evidence, no working and generally misrepresent the truth. " there, FTFY.
    • by Uberbah ( 647458 ) on Friday September 04, 2015 @01:42AM (#50455673)

      The cost of mitigating climate change are insignificant next to the costs of ignoring it.

      But there is no consensus on what the level of warming will be nor is there consensus on the idea that the changes are harmful/damaging to our interests

      Troll tactic #2: pretend that climate change is some theoretical even that will happen in our future, as opposed to something having drastic costs right now.

      Record storms, droughts, floods, forest fires, and heat waves are costing hundreds of billions and tens of thousands of lives right now.

      Climate science discussion is so slippery, constantly confusing, conflating and switching in utterly different subjects of discussion

      IOW: "we don't really knooooow, so lets not do anything!" Standard climate troll approach, going back decades.

    • there is no consensus on what the level of warming will be

      nor is there consensus on the idea that the changes are harmful/damaging to our interests

      There is an enormous amount of disagreement here, scientific disagreement

      honest truth is we do not know what impacts are likely to be

      None of the above is true - except about the precise numbers involved. The IPCC AR5 report widely surveyed the published studies to date, and shows very clearly and with "high confidence" that business-as-usual emissions will result in a temperature rise of 2 to 4 degrees. This conclusion is not disputed by any scientific organisation, nor are there any studies showing anything short of broad agreement among climatologists about this.

      Likewise, the WG2 section shows with "high confidence" that many unique an

  • Any theory that has no way to falsified is not science. The level conflict of interest is too damn high with climate "scientists". It's nothing but a bunch of collectivists trying to push their top down authoritarian government down everyone's throat - AS ALWAYS - and this is just another means to that end. Don't believe it? Here's a simple litmus test.

    1) Does it actually help the problem in a meaningful way, or does it simply grow the top down authoritarian government?

    For each proposed "solution"
    • by Socguy ( 933973 )
      Take off your tinfoil hat.
    • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

      by ad1217 ( 2418196 )
      Genuine question: Who stands to gain from increasing government (specifically environmental regulaton)?
    • Government has an overwhelming bias towards fossil fuel extraction. Solar City isn't raking in $40 billion each quarter in profits, Exxon is, and they hire lobbyists and former politicians. That's why Obama has opened far more land and sea for drilling than Bush, and spent years bragging that the U.S. is mining fossil fuels beyond it's capacity to transport them for processing or sale.

      Anyone who repeats the "government-funded scientists are biased towards climate change" is a fool who hasn't thought abou

  • by shentino ( 1139071 ) <shentino@gmail.com> on Thursday September 03, 2015 @09:46PM (#50455123)

    The climate and environment in general are a shared resource and nobody wants to be the one to hold back because they'll be the one stuck with the cost while everyone else reaps the benefits.

    And unlike at the national level where a central government can FORCE you to pay for it collectively, the environment is a global resource and there is no way to enforce proper sharing of the resource.

  • Half will agree, half won't and all with legitimate insight.

  • So all the testimony before congress was about anthropomorphic climate change.
    Do you think it changed any congress critters minds?

  • Science does not need consensus to find the right answer. Would we have waited for consensus about quantum mechanics and SRT before starting to use these theories, then we would just be starting to develop lasers, tunnel diodes and other things.

    Sort the publications by the impact factor, and remove everything with impact 1 from your view. The you will remove the biased, paid for shit.

  • Humans are messing with our planet?? Aaaargh! We must eradicate that scum!
  • Consensus is not Science.
    Science is testing and Ockhams Razor.

    • by dave420 ( 699308 )
      And when you have testing, Occam's razor, and consensus, it's probably the right assumption.

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