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Doing the Quickee Boogie 65

Posted by CmdrTaco
from the amazingly-lame-titles dept.
First up is a pretty cool Slashdot bit: drwii sent us a link to Scanned in Proof that Slashdot is actually in the Feb print edition of PC Magazine. Spiffy. An anonymous reader sent us a wired article explaining Wired. Wired the deal with MP4s. `PEZ sent us a couple of links to more information about the 'Yepp' MP3 player- The samsung announcement and the Yepp Web Page will quench your thirst for knowledge. svetz wrote in to say that Gnome 0.99.3 is on. desertAngel was the first to squeel that 2.2.0pre7 is out. Alron Dameon-ArkMoon wrote in to say that LinuxBox.com is providing free hosting for Open Source developers. schvin wrote in to plug portico.org, a new *Nix tips and tricks page. saturated wrote in to say that apparently Linux Now! is back on line after a little absence. Michael Howard sent us a must see penguin image. ToiletDuk sent us a great pyromaniac web site- fireballs with bic lighters? Don't burn yourself. soren.harward wrote in to tell us that stomped.com has Quake III Arena movies if you're curious what your future will look like. cynbe sent us a link to an amusing piece called The Last Dinosaur and the Tarpits of Doom: How Linux Smashed Windows. It's funny. I think.
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Doing the Quickee Boogie

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  • The "Last Dinosaur..." article is interesting, but there's a dangerous assumption early on: That there will always be unmodified growth following the early curve. To extrapolate the early growth in any unlimited future is bogus.

    The classic demonstration in the flaws of unlimited extrapolation is the Elvis Analysis: In 1977, there were three Elvis impersonators. Last year, there were 28,000 Elvis impersonators. If you extrapolate this into the future, in the year 2015, every third person on the planet will be an Elvis impersonator.

    The danger in any extrapolation is that as you "near" saturation, the growth curve must fall off, ultimately turning into an asymptotic approach to 100% (of whatever the environment is, anyway). There will always be some machine running Windows, thus Linux saturation will never reach 100%. The difference in any given extrapoation is that the definition of "near" will vary depending on the circumstances. "Near" could be as low as 40-50 percent - when X reaches 50% saturation, growth starts to slow.

    I suspect that (a) We have to consider the server market separate from the desktop market; (b) When Linux reaches some significant fraction of units in each market (25%?), Microsoft will begin an all-out blitz which will affect growth in Linux's market share. In any case, this means that the idea of the continued exponential growth of Linux into the PC market is a short-term view -- the circumstances will not support it for much longer.
  • From AltaVista Advanced Query:

    Microsoft | "Windows 3.1" | (Microsoft & Windows) | Win95 | Win98 | "Windows NT" | WinNT | "Win NT" | w2k | "Windows 2000" | Windows2000
    3,332,724

    java & !(indonesia | island)
    1,794,448

    linux | GNU
    744,700

    (Apple & (computer | Macintosh | Mac | Gershwin | Rhapsody)) | MacOS | "Yellow Box" | iMac
    590,037

    Solaris | SunOS | "Sun Microsystems"
    483,895

    freebsd | netbsd | openbsd
    117,799

    "hp/ux"
    101,940

    --

  • this shows how much web usage is going on about
    the different OSs. im sure there alot more web
    traffic per capita about linux than the MacOS for
    example, partly just because linux and the
    majority of the software we use are developed over
    the net.
  • Oh sure, sure. First a perky hump from PC Magazine.

    Tomorrow, a guest spot on Regis and Kathie Lee.

    Please, please, oh creators of Slashdot, promise me you'll never wind up doing mall appearances with Fred Imus pushing jars of salsa.

    Although the idea of "Rob's Hot Sauce" does intrigue me. GPL'd party mix?

  • "This online community of techies and gearheads posts interesting articles about programming and then discusses them at length."

    Boy that does sound exciting. :)

    That article looks like hell too. They lifted all the graphics from the actual web-pages, so there are these pixelated blobs all over their nice glossy pages. And they used the TCWWW in the link! Will the horrors never cease?
  • Hey all, Soren here. If you're using anything slower than a 128K ISDN GET OFF MY FTP SITE. Let this Quake III movie get spread around a little, and then move in. My T1 is at 98.7% and everything's going slow. Do the people with real connections a favor and let them get it first so they can mirror it.
  • woah!! my favorite features:

    the mirror. I hope it dont bounce weapon shots as well, casue if it were placed in the right area, I'd be shootin myself :)

    that q3 powerup thingie - the guy looked freakin cool...the animated skin idea frightens me.

    transparency and fog - that lil window looked freakin rad, as did walkin through the fog

    teleports - q1 style teleports. woohoo!

    this just looks like q2 mappers/skinners/mod developers are gonna have a ball playin with it :)
    and about the guy above me - the stomped.com was runnin fine for me: abt 90k/s in the dorms here...
  • Cynbe wrote Citadel, one of the PC applications that got me into open-source software back in the '80s! I remember thinking that the BSD/SysV wars were remarkably like the DragCit/Cit86 wars (DragCit, the West Coast version, was far superior, naturally, to the New Jersey Cit86.)


    I am in that man's debt for starting the Citadel BBS craze in Seattle. If it weren't for the availability of source code, I'd have been stuck hacking on "wack-ass proprietary shit"(TM).
    --

  • Help stamp out and destroy redundancy, repetition and redundancy!
    -----

  • ...uhuh...

    dylan_-


    --
  • Remember that piece of FUD that appeard months ago (which apparently was spreaded by the RIAA) about MP3 containing viruses?
    Well, it seems that MP4 can *only* be used as a single EXE file. Connect the dots by yourself...
  • I read the article, and just for a laugh reproduced the AltaVista searches mentioned. Here the the numbers:
    Article Today (1/13/99) % Diff
    Windows 2,530,775 11,506,413 455
    Linux 502,053 2,003,198 399
    Solaris 251,513 800,206 318
    HP/UX 105,833 99,610 6% less
    FreeBSD 81,781 317,334 388
    MacOS 70,851 219,970 310
    UnixWare 23,386 49,320 210
    Ultrix 15,133 34,040 225
    Digital Unix --- 13,380 -
    OpenBSD 11,892 26,400 222

    Interesting, but I bet Windows gets LOTS of non-Microsoft related hits.

    Cheers
    Eric






  • Two can play at the version game, either sue GMO for taking the mp4 name, or just name mpeg4 MP5, that's total bs... OR just still call mpeg4 mp4, GMO's version WILL die due to virus issues as noted above. Also, that's stupid to have a player embedded in each file, the most retarded thing I've ever heard of... ok so it's not the most retarded, but still pretty retarded nonetheless.
  • okok, so it's not much but,

    THERE'S NOTHING WRONG WITH STUPID TITLES!

  • MP4 is there just as a distribution media for advertisements.

    Do you know why it's in .EXE? So you can't just put it in a car mp3 player and not listen to the ads.

    I wonder how long before someone makes an mp4 player that plays without anyone actually running the executable. Even if that is illegal, there is very little they can do about public domain code that is not attributed to anyone...
  • I've been able to run the mp4 player under Wine...

  • those quake3 mpg's have been slashdotted down to 8k/sec!

    grrrrrrrr!
  • Fear - Uncertainty - Doubt.

    Method perfected by IBM in its heyday, now happily "embraced and extended" by Microsoft.

    To attempt to steer customers away from competitors by badmouthing the competing product, planting seeds of doubt, inventing rumors, etc.

    See The Jargon File, a.k.a. New Hacker's Dictionary, for more info.

  • Now *this* is why the Internet is so much fun! ;-)
  • by Bilbo (7015)
    "There are three types of lies: Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics."

    I don't know if I agree with the analysis (a number of people here have already pointed out serious flaws), but it was still a fun article, and I think should be taken in that light. There is no doubt Linux is growing, but there are still plenty of unknowns out there. I've a gut feeling that the Y2K problem is going to put more pressure on people to switch to open standards and software (easier to validate). NT is going to continue to slip. More people are going to just get so fed up with MS's inability to deliver that they will start to consider alternatives. Unix was never seen as an alternative OS for "the masses" like Linux (and even FreeBSD) is. It's time for a change.

    Funny thing is, even if the DoJ suit fails, I think it's provided a "window" of opportunity, getting people to think if they really want to sell their soul (and their data center) to a company like that.

    These next few years are going to be interesting... ;-)

  • Funny you should mention Macintosh, a company distingushed in its early days for embracing the educational market. I, too, felt that this strategy portended great market gains, when all of those Mac-using pre-teens went on into the workplace. No dice, though. We will see.

  • The 2.2.0pre7 announcement was in the article right before this one.
    Just READ slashdot before posting to it. That's all i'm asking.
  • Well, you see, his point is that there are 3 ways for analysts to extrapolate the growth curve, and 1 way for math to do it. The point being analysts go with what they believe, and then cloak it in facts, while math tends to be way more objective. I don't know if I agree with his conclusions about linux growth, but then again, I haven't seen a sampling that can be used for a good model.

    A few important points he has forgotten to mention / overlooked.

    a) Just as there were waves of propriatary that flowed into open standards, the wave does flow back and forth. Look at the propriatary *nix around (Sun, Digital, SGI).

    b) Just as "in the begining there was one" AT&T Unix was cast out from the Tower of Babel and made to speak many languages unknown to eachother. (If he can do Dinosuars, I can do Old Testament.) When will the great fork occur in Linux? It will come one day, it's just a when.

    c) And by his logic Linux will one day be surplanted by something else, *shrug*, but that's no big thing. (And will take at least 15 years by his numbers)

    d) A big question is: Does Linux want to be the biggest? I know most reactions will be "hell yah!", but that leads to the question why?

    e) And here's the scariest extrapolation from his logic. Just as the dinosaurs died out and mammals eventually took over, now it is assumed that the dinosuars actually became today's birds. Will windows make a similiar sideways leap in evolution, giving up size for flight? (I hope it doesn't peck out my eyes)


    Any and all views voiced here are mine right now, they might be different tomorrow, but I don't think so.
  • by reaper (10065)
    They got sued by Sun, and are now required to fix Java, or stop shipping it.
  • "VAX/VMS is actually still available if you ask for it, albeit mutated now to OpenVMS and more or less claiming to be Unix"

    Rather less than more. If I had a large-budget project where reliability and stability were paramount, I'd choose VMS over any Unix flavour.

    K.
    -
  • News articles? What percentage of hits include news articles? Last I checked, Micro$oft is all over the news. Linux is only recently gaining in this area.

    afniv

    ~afniv
    "Man könnte froh sein, wenn die Luft so rein wäre wie das Bier"
    "We could be happy if the air was as pure as the beer"
  • Unfortunately, Windows could mean the type of windows that are used to look outside your office, or - gasp! - X-Windows.

    I checked the first 30 listings from a search for 'windows':

    On the first page, we have 8 MS-Windows related links, and "Windows on Italy - Regions: Toscana", and "Vehicle Routing Problems with Time Windows". The second page gives us 'John Elefante - Windows', another "Vehicle Routing Problems with Time Windows'. The third page gives us 'X-Windows (TK Widgets)'.

    So we have about 5/30 (1/6) instances of "Windows" that are completely irrelevent to Microsoft. If this percentage applied for the whole list, we would have 9,550,685 references to Windows.

    With Linux at 2,003,229, it only has to double twice relative to Microsoft to have the same number of references. If you consider that most of the references to Windows are in the context of "XXX presents YYY for Windows, the ultimate tic-tac-toe game for the platform", while most of the Linux links are technical in nature, I suspect that Linux is already far superior to Windows in terms of available technical resources and help on the web.

    In this context, I'd say Linux' performance in the word count derby is greater than might be expected, and Microsoft Windows' is less. As the Linux market share increases, I feel we can only see improvement.

    D
  • You're right, the platforms used to view the AltaVista search engine would be a better measure of popularity.

    But he did in fact do an AltaVista search, which is - to the extent that it is an accurate reflection of the number of pages discussing each OS - a valid measure of the quantity of available resources on the system.

    D
  • Official packages will be available RSN. I would much rather them be solid and bug-free than quick out of the gate.

    If you just can't wait, you can get unofficial gnome debs from http://master.debian.org/~crow/gnome

    If you use apt, just add:
    deb http://master.debian.org/~crow/gnome /
    to the top of your /etc/apt/sources.list
  • http://www.wired.com/news/news/culture/sotry/17303 .html

    About the fifth or sixth paragraph down...

    "The RIAA has the support of heavy hitters AOL, AT&T, IBM, Lucent, Microsoft, Matsushita, RealNetworks, Sony, and Toshiba."

    Hmm, could someone explain to me what AOL has to do with MP3/MP4?

    I also think that the RIAA is completely wrong in thinking that the mp3 arena is full of piracy and that the artists don't receieve any compensation for their music. There's no telling how many times I've caught myself downloading some "illegal" mp3s of some band I never would have heard otherwise and then going out and buying the CD(s) at a local store or from CDNOW.com! And I'm sure I'm not the only one who does this.
  • windows & (registry | ini) : 57413
    linux & (script | scripts) : 56768
  • Quake 3 should rock, if this vid is anything to go by...

    Correct me if I'm wrong, but /. isn't 100% development based...!?!

    I've been frequenting this establishment for around 9 months now, and it seems to be "News for Nerds"...not "News for Developer Nerds"...?
  • I am not happy when companies make software that creates another fileformat like mp4. Atleast M$ Word 8 files can be transulated into HTML files, or someother format. This exe cannot be transulate UNDER LINUX to another format (as of yet). I wish I had info on the file format for mp4 (and it is supposedly not mpeg-4), and also enough of the right info on mp3 to create some kind of file conversion utility under Linux.
    I tried running it under wine and I couldn't get it to work. and I am using the latest version of wine.
    I am very disappointed in these companies today that create platform dependant content for the web when any idiot knows that the web is made up of many diferent platforms from Mac to Linux to Windows, and who knows what else.
    I for one will boycott mp4 format (as it does me no good on my Linux machine).
    I think any company that puts mp4 on its web site shoudl be listed on 'http://www.websitesthatsuck.com'

    imho!
  • Nice article, was a good read. I have to be a bit wary of the stats, but even if they are incorrect, it still gives some nice historical background.


    Force Recon Half-Life TC: Check it out [cass.net]
  • I loved the The Last Dinosaur and the Tarpits of Doom article. I have been happily spreading FUD against M$ here at my place of employment. I work as a support tech for a "leading" retail PC manufacturer. I hate my job. Two more weeks and it is over. Anyway, I am sort of known as the LINUX GEEK around here, but am not an advanced user YET. I have to support winblows and all of its problems. Did I mention I hate this job ?? Oh yeah .. I figure toget a job at a small ISP somewhere so I can devote more time to becoming the GURU/GEEK that I desire to be ... I was planning on becoming MCSE, but I woke up from that nightmare and want to become an *NIX admin somewhere ...

    Cobratek
    >:=
  • by PhillC (84728)
    yepp seems to have more features than the Rio, especially with the little optional extra that allows for MP3 creation directly from audio equipment without the need for a PC. But the Rio has more playback time (1 hour) compared to 40mins for the yepp Series D
    I was merely a mouse click away from ordering a Rio this morning......
    What to do, what to do.
  • use a program (maybe alien does this) and convert rpms to .deb
    or bug debian and want a rpm->deb converter from them. :)

    -disq
  • I don't understand how they can have rpm for sparc already.. but no freaking deb packages...
    I don't want to spend the 14 hours it takes to get all the shit that gnome depends on and compile it.. if they just got the deb packages.. sheet.. i donno

Machines certainly can solve problems, store information, correlate, and play games -- but not with pleasure. -- Leo Rosten

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