I'm all for playing dirty. The Iranian government has generally been awful and disruptive. Israel and the US aren't exactly been paragons of virtue, but Iran is MUCH worse. I support slowing down their nuke program by almost any means necessary.
That being said, the strategy of suppressing Iran's nuclear program can't run forever. Nukes are almost 100 YEAR OLD TECHNOLOGY. If the country is determined to get them, they will get them, sooner or later. What then? When they do manage to build a small nuclear
You're missing the point here. Israel knows they cannot stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons. However Israel also knows they do not have to. You have to look at the geopolitics here.
Iran is a pariah state. They have few allies, they are Muslim but not Arab so they are surrounded by hostile "tribes", and they have a history of being dominated by outside foreign powers. The Islamic Revolution that created the current state was about rejecting foreign powers and being in command of their own destiny. The Revolution led to the support of numerous Arab powers to counterbalance them and limit their growth, and frankly rubs up against the US' strategy of never allowing a regional power, which Iran is, to grow sufficiently to threaten American interests, so America will always disrupt their growth.
In that context, Iran has a program to build nuclear weapons. Given their hostility to Israel and desire to create chaos in the Arab world, and America's strong desire to monopolize nuclear weapons, Iran's goal is not to actually get a nuclear weapon; rather it's goal is to be on the path towards getting a nuclear weapon. This enrages and monopolizes the attention of the most powerful country in the world, and gives them something to trade away in exchange for guarantees and deals that gives Iran breathing room to grow into their state (North Korea uses this exact same strategy). Actually getting a weapon and using it would invite an American military response; but progress towards developing one but not quite being there gives them a strong hand to bring the P5+1 to negotiate with Iran as though Iran is an equal to the combined weight of the US, China, France, the UK, Russia and Germany. Those talks stalled under Trump, and are now resuming under Biden. Iran's goal is to create a space for itself to grow independent of influence of any outside major power; they also just brokered an economic deal with China, but one that limits Chinese investment into Iran so they have someone to trade with, but minimize Chinese influence. The best outcome for Iran is space to sell to both the East and West while being entirely separate from either; it's own independent entity.
Now what is Israel's interest in this? Israel knows that only Iran can choose to stop developing a nuclear weapon. But they also know that Iran is using it's nuclear program to extract greater concessions from the P5+1. So, if they can degrade the program sufficiently, Iran has less to trade, meaning any deal hammered out gives Iran less space to grow in exchange for it's program if it's program is not that advanced. Israel seeks survival and stability while being surrounded by hostile neighbors, and they've offset their disadvantage through tight autocratic control, technology, and partnering with super-powers. Israel cannot afford to give up it's relationships with the US or any other major power, so in the P5+1 talks it cannot afford for the US to minimize it's mid-east presence or limit it's aid to Israel.
So ultimately, this is about Israel trying to remove the value of what Iran has to trade, in the hopes that a deal gets signed while the P5+1 give as little as possible to Iran to get them to stop the program, whereas Iran needs to make it look like the damage was minimal and won't affect their program so they get as much as possible from the P5+1.
it's a little complex and many indirect actions towards other targets, but this is the context in which this attack happened.
Long term, this won't work (Score:5, Interesting)
That being said, the strategy of suppressing Iran's nuclear program can't run forever. Nukes are almost 100 YEAR OLD TECHNOLOGY. If the country is determined to get them, they will get them, sooner or later. What then? When they do manage to build a small nuclear
Re:Long term, this won't work (Score:5, Interesting)
Iran is a pariah state. They have few allies, they are Muslim but not Arab so they are surrounded by hostile "tribes", and they have a history of being dominated by outside foreign powers. The Islamic Revolution that created the current state was about rejecting foreign powers and being in command of their own destiny. The Revolution led to the support of numerous Arab powers to counterbalance them and limit their growth, and frankly rubs up against the US' strategy of never allowing a regional power, which Iran is, to grow sufficiently to threaten American interests, so America will always disrupt their growth.
In that context, Iran has a program to build nuclear weapons. Given their hostility to Israel and desire to create chaos in the Arab world, and America's strong desire to monopolize nuclear weapons, Iran's goal is not to actually get a nuclear weapon; rather it's goal is to be on the path towards getting a nuclear weapon. This enrages and monopolizes the attention of the most powerful country in the world, and gives them something to trade away in exchange for guarantees and deals that gives Iran breathing room to grow into their state (North Korea uses this exact same strategy). Actually getting a weapon and using it would invite an American military response; but progress towards developing one but not quite being there gives them a strong hand to bring the P5+1 to negotiate with Iran as though Iran is an equal to the combined weight of the US, China, France, the UK, Russia and Germany. Those talks stalled under Trump, and are now resuming under Biden. Iran's goal is to create a space for itself to grow independent of influence of any outside major power; they also just brokered an economic deal with China, but one that limits Chinese investment into Iran so they have someone to trade with, but minimize Chinese influence. The best outcome for Iran is space to sell to both the East and West while being entirely separate from either; it's own independent entity.
Now what is Israel's interest in this? Israel knows that only Iran can choose to stop developing a nuclear weapon. But they also know that Iran is using it's nuclear program to extract greater concessions from the P5+1. So, if they can degrade the program sufficiently, Iran has less to trade, meaning any deal hammered out gives Iran less space to grow in exchange for it's program if it's program is not that advanced. Israel seeks survival and stability while being surrounded by hostile neighbors, and they've offset their disadvantage through tight autocratic control, technology, and partnering with super-powers. Israel cannot afford to give up it's relationships with the US or any other major power, so in the P5+1 talks it cannot afford for the US to minimize it's mid-east presence or limit it's aid to Israel.
So ultimately, this is about Israel trying to remove the value of what Iran has to trade, in the hopes that a deal gets signed while the P5+1 give as little as possible to Iran to get them to stop the program, whereas Iran needs to make it look like the damage was minimal and won't affect their program so they get as much as possible from the P5+1.
it's a little complex and many indirect actions towards other targets, but this is the context in which this attack happened.
Re: (Score:2)
dude.
Re:Long term, this won't work (Score:4, Funny)
Colonizing Mars might be easier though.
Re: (Score:2)