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TI CEO Says PC Era is Ending 196

Posted by emmett from the well-duh dept.
FModnar writes "Texas Instruments CEO Tom Engibous is claiming that the PC era is ending. He claims that wireless Internet devices are replacing PCs as 'the driving force in the electronics industry' and will become even more popular once they are linked to broadband networks. Check out this story at Yahoo! News."
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TI CEO Says PC Era is Ending More

TI CEO Says PC Era is Ending

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  • Wireless electronic devices are still FAR off from ever achieving what the PC can do. Since most people are still chained to their desks at work as they have been for the past decades, the PC will still have a place far into the future

    besides I just couldn't get into playing quake on a palm.
  • things such as the creative "web tablet" (I'm guessing something etch-a-sketch looking with a wireless net connect) are supposedly going to become rather popular. I think that one's even going to use the Crusoe! *glee*
    Now, it seems quite unlikely that the desktop market will be replaced, but this will undoubtedly become a favorite among the aolers who only actually have a computer for easy net access, and high school/college students who would use such a device for class or research.
    Would be quite handy if the wireless connectivity is cheap.
    *all is IMHO*

    SaintAlex



    Observe, reason, and experiment.
  • "...Linus Torvalds, here are your thirty kajillion IPO dollars. Have a nice day. "

    Personally, I like my PC with its real mouse and real keyboard...not that I wouldn't find a use for a webpad, but I wouldn't want to play counter-strike on one.

    -W.W.
  • Obviously the PC is not going to disappear from the horizon, but more and more cheap 'specialty' gadgets will enter our lifes. wearing computers [wearcam.org], wearing more computers [wearcomp.org], Steve Mann [toronto.edu] at UofT (Toronto) Personally I find it cool that you can wear all those computers on you, and noone will even suspect it. the photo to the right [wearcomp.org] However, after working with all these wireless phones for over 3 years, I have realized that they give me headaches. So I dumped my PCS.

  • OK, so someone predicted the end of the PC. But I don't see my box going away anytime soon. I actually like those big, clunky things. I don't think tinkering with these new wireless thingies is as much fun as resurrecting an old 486. *g*

    Disclaimer: Dont't expect too much sense, I haven't had enough coffee yet
  • I've heard tons of tech evangelists saying that the days of the PCs are ending. Usually, these evangelists have some vested intersted in the net appliance market. IMHO, this viewpoint is utter bull--PCs will undoubtedly remain a focal point for the computing experience for at least several more years.

    Sure, you may be able to read email on a cellphone, but its a far more pleasant experience when you are sitting in a comfy computer screen in front of a nice big 19" monitor. What makes PCs so attractive is their versatility. They can do everything from helping you create essays to letting you entertain yourself.

    I take the more moderate view on net appliances. Its obvious that PCs and netappliances will coexist for the conceivable future. In the long term, I think that everything will eventually converge on mobile/wearable PCs. Imagine a future with a computer weighing a few hundred grams, with t3 net connectivity, virtually unlimited battery life, and the ability to project a 19"+ eqiv screen directly onto your retina. Yum.

    Thus, in short, net apps won't swallow PCs, and PCs won't be around forever. Eventually they will meet in the middle.
  • IMHO, I don't think there are enough unsued electromagnetic frequencies left to provide wireless broadband access to more than a very small percentage of the population, especially in heavily populated areas. That is, unless we start using the higher and dangerous frequencies like xrays and such. Yeah, this would fix both problems, too many people and not enough bandwidth. -sludge copyright 2000 sludge, all rights reserved all wrongs reversed
  • One thing that I've noticed over the years is that people who think they're analyzing the industry are judging where it is at by what's at the forefront. For instance, when a new chip comes out, suddenly analysts look at that as the standard machine everyone's using. No way. We need to look at the state of the industry as some kind of average of what consumers are buying. Sure, execs are using all these wireless gizmos. But are consumers dumping their PCs? No way. Hell, I'm typing this on my Pentium 233 (that's right, not a PII or PIII).

    Schools, libraries, universities, hospitals and government offices all have invested heavily in PCs and there are no signs of obsolescence. The undeniable fact that PC prices are dropping like crazy is a reason that people are only going to buy more. Frankly, I don't want some little gadget I'm going to sit on and break -- or worse yet -- lose. I like my PC.

    Remember the network PC that was supposed to replace our clunky desktop machines?

    Mankind has always dreamed of destroying the sun.

  • *shrug* (Score:3)

    by cdlu ( 65838 ) on Monday January 31, 2000 @09:03PM (#1317197) Homepage
    He doesn't really say the PC market will fade, but more that the wireless market will increase. This is true. As wireless high-speed communications increase in availability they will increase in popularity, because, face it, people will want such toys. PCs will hold on for some time yet because of things like full keyboards, mice and large monitors. Newer people from the older generation trying to learn computers will tend not toward wireless high-speed gizmos, but more toward the PC desktop market as a [relatively] easy to use method of computing. Personally, I don't think something like the palm-top with an airlan type connection would suit me, as I can not see taking a 3-6 inch monitor seriously... imagine slashdot on one of those?
    #include <signal.h> \ #include <stdlib.h> \ int main(void){signal(ABRT,SIGIGN);while(1){abort(-1); }return(0);}
  • I have yet to see a decent lowcost LCD display. I'm waiting for the day when laptops are blisterpacked and cost less than $150.

  • Is it any wonder that Texas Instruments is promoting smaller electronic devices? By saying that they see the future was being wireless web bases, they are putting people in the mind frame to want that type of product.

    It's really more of a subtle way of advertising their products and getting people to see their vision of the future. They are simply creating demand for products which are easy extentions of their core business and technical knowledge.

    But, hey I'm all for a wireless DSL line running to my 1GHz palmtop!
    ---------
    provolt
    HP for me.

  • Ha! (Score:1)

    by akamil ( 142336 )
    What a bunch of bull. Wireless Internet devices replacing PCs? Yeah right. Somebody show me a "wireless Internet device" that you can play Quake 3 on. That is, Quake 3 on a 20" monitor and at 1600x1200 3d accelerated. If that ever happens, then maybe the PC will be dying. However, at the moment, it looks like he might just be making a sales pitch.
  • the PC era is *ending* ?? WTF ? The need for a general computing device is *more* than it was before. how the heck is a wireless internet device going to cope with generalised computation like a PC ?

    I think wireless Internet will be able to handle some of the things that a PC does today. I believe in the future you could probably have some type of word processor, a calendar, e-mail, some web browsing all on a device like you see on Star Trek. However a wireless device such as this, I think, wouldn't be practical for use on the desktop. I'd rather have a keyboard that's today size for writing out my 30-page thesis unless in the future you have a voice recognition system that understands me pretty well. Also the PC may become a TV/Computer more so in the future as you have cheap broadband to every home. So you'll be able to have a very powerful TV able to run your seti@home while being able to play Quake26 with the latest 3D graphics card.

    I don't believe the PC era will end for quite awhile, the number of PC's in homes may drop because maybe most people just need a little device to do word processing and use the Internet. So they may get one of these devices that can do that, and that's all they need. That would be all my Father needs, plus he has the ability to take it to work and to other places with him. That would be a great device for him and also me. However I would still have a PC at home to do other things, such as programming, playing games, learning new OS's, trying out different applications and educating myself as much as possible in the latest and greatest applications. There's a whole galore of things I do on my PC that I could mention that couldn't be capable on this device but I doubt most "normal" people do those things. For most people I think this "general" type of device will probably be quite suited for those general tasks as I mentioned above.

    lakdjfalkdj - cuz I couldn't think of anything better at the time:)

  • Sheesh. I need to get some of whatever this guy is smoking. True, wireless handhelds will become commonplace, but they will *compliment* pc use, not *replace* it. Even if you tossed me a dream 2Ghz PDA/whatever, if there's a 5ghz pc out there, you'll probably see me banging away at the pc ;) Digit.
  • OK everyone.. Lets trade in our Desktops for some flimsy little hand held thing that we might lose in the seat of the couch. Ya, sure! I don't care about small, and connected! I want, fast, Really, really fast. And I don't care what I have to do to get it. I don't want a computer that can be lost in my couch, not unless it is faster, and performs better than my desktop unit! Now, I can see having a portable device for when you can't be at the desk (aka, when you run down stairs to get some more food, then run back up to reload slashdot...) But in all seriousness, you think it would be revolutionary to have a computer that you could sit at your desk, with it in your hand, with a keyboard too small to really type on, or voice recognition taht doesn't work because EVERYBODY is trying to talk to their ultra small hand held unit? I think that I would rather have my big, fast, hot, sweet soundin (Yes, when all 5 fans start up, the damn thing sounds like it is about to fly away :) machine, with more than enough power for ANYTHING I need to do with it.. And guess what, I am STILL as productive (If not more productive) than the person who is taking this portable unit around with them, having to shut it off half way through their work because the battery is dieing.. Where as my endless supply of energy allows my machine to be as power hungry as it damn well pleases!

    Don't get me wrong, I would love to HAVE a hand held device that COULD replace my computer! But, I STILL want to have my computer, the handheld would be for when I can't have my computer with me! I don't see having JUST one of these hand held devices..

    Ever try surfing the web on your cell phone? You silly thing you!

    ((Not trying to burst anyone's bubble, but I don't see this happeneing NOW, or for the next few years. Maybe in my lifetime yes, but I intend on living for a long time!))

  • Not yet. (Score:3)

    by Maul ( 83993 ) on Monday January 31, 2000 @09:09PM (#1317206) Journal
    The PC still probably has several years in it. It will likely never really die out. Portable gadgets will probably serve to complement available PCs, not replace them.

    I think that within 5 years it will be commonplace for any average home in the US to have one computer for all the high-end needs, and that members of the household will have personal, small, PDAs that they can use for their daily purposes, then interface with the home PC.

    So I think the market will change a bit, but I doubt the PC will "go away."

    And of course, I'm sure that coders and the like will still want personal Linux boxes hanging around.

    "You ever have that feeling where you're not sure if you're dreaming or awake?"

  • I've heard this before. Sure some people will be happy with a little email web surfing machine. I wouldn't advise using wireless internet devices for anything else though.

    The web is and probably always will be less secure then a home computer. Would you really want to have all of your personel information avaliable to any script kiddie that downloads the newest cracking program. At least on your home computer you are protected by the number of machines online.

    Many places seem to think that most of our computing will be done online. Cnet has stated this repeatedly when talking about new online services. Who really wants to have to use online services to do day to day computing tasks. If you have a problem who do you call. Looks like pay per use will be the wave of the future if this type of thinking continues.

    Sure the new devices will be cool and really handy. However don't look to be able to play the newest quake or Diablo on your wireless internet machine.

    Most people don't have the large bandwidth that this type of machine would need avaliable. I look forward to having DSL about the same time that everyone in congress learns how to use linux. Broadband wireless should come about five years after that.

    Btw how is anybody supposed to learn about programming on this type of machine. When all programs are ran on remote servers on the net it will create a situation where the people owning those servers decide what kind of software you need to run.

    Just my two cents worth. I wouldn't trade my two networked computers for a web server with a dsl connection and online applications. I really wouldn't mind being able to download mp3's to play on my portable mp3 player with a nifty wireless connection, though.

  • Bwahh (Score:3)

    by pridkett ( 2666 ) on Monday January 31, 2000 @09:10PM (#1317209) Homepage Journal

    Okay. I can understand why he might say that the PC era is ending. I mean, my Ti99/4a can hardly keep up anymore. We upgraded recently to a massive 10 megabyte hard disk and a 1200 baud modem. You should see slashdot on this thing. It's interesting to see how it remaps the character set to make the various icons like einstein and lady liberty that you "power users" of such computer as the Timex Sinclair take for granted.

    However there are two things that my trusty Ti99/4a will have that these newfangled things (that connect to something called the global internet) will never have. First a giant box of a speech synthesizer. Who would think, a talking computer. Second a cassette tape adapter for me to load Tunnels of Doom. God bless technology.

  • People use their PCs for more than web surfing, ya know, he seems to ignore that. No one wants Q3 on a handheld with a 4" screen. PCs have become a fixture in the home, and they'll stay that way. Televisions are portable now, do you see the TV set going anywhere?

    Esperandi
  • sorry in the last paragraph I said I wouldn't trade my two computers for a webserver with dsl. I meant to say I wouldn't trade them for a dumb terminal wich is what these types of devices are.

    webserver must have been a freudian slip

  • Yeah right. (Score:4)

    by SurfsUp ( 11523 ) on Monday January 31, 2000 @09:17PM (#1317212)
    90% of the world doesn't have a PC now and the PC era is supposed to be ending? Right. I'll believe it when I see all those Indians, Chinese, Indonesians, etc. etc. etc. running Wordperfect on their cellphones.
  • Monitor prices didn't even budge for like 20 years until LCD panels came out recently. Unlike everything else in the computer world, the people making monitors are slow as hell at innovating anything, so it takes decades for any prices to come down.

    Esperandi
  • ...a keyboard and mouse is no longer the fastest method of input.
    Give me real speech recognition, or even better, thought recognition, and I'll take that hand-held, wireless-yet-100 megabit/sec networked, ultra hi-res TI computer and throw away my Pentium IX or Itanium V or whatever I have by then.
  • This is just an attempt to draw some media attention and get free exposure on the part of TI. It's not exactly a major news-flash to say, "Gee, we think wireless mobile internet is going to be a big thing in the future." Duh. However, the end of the desktop is a story. Predict that, and the media, like the mindless clones they are, will quote you like mad, and give you, your company and your products priceless exposure. Take it for what it is; a bunch of smoke with no fire.
    -Goliath
  • Hell yeah, as long as we are a bunch of gaming junkies, the PC is gonna be quite strong.
  • Why? You can type 60wpm if you're good and talk maybe 20... then you get into the mouse. Faster to click the Start button (since we know MS will do this first and Linux will follow, we'll go with MS here) or say "Press the Start Button" or "Open the Start menu".

    I'll stick with the clicking and clacking.

    Esperandi
  • To hell with this wireless/portable appliances crap. Man, i don't know what that guy is thinking.. We're going to be growing computers big and small. With Neural Input/Outputs, and stuff. Quantum Computers man! I want to eat my computer.
  • www.moller.com

    the 50s are here

    Esperandi
  • The PC era is ending...again?

    Please, every couple of months, for the past about 10 years or so, some CEO somewhere makes the exact same with a few minor tweaks (being exactly *why*) that the era of the PC is coming to an end.

    First, it was the RISC computer...
    Then, it was the NC (network computer)...
    Now, it's small mobile devices and PDAs...sigh...

    $10 says that PCs still exist in 5 years, and in 5 years another CEO will be announcing the end of the PC era. 10-20 years?...well, we'll see...

  • The value of a general-purpose computing device is fairly obvious. It's versatile, upgradable and presumably more affordable than owning a plethora of specialty devices.

    For the special-purpose device to displace the generalised one, it needs to offer the things "real" computers don't offer: portability and unobtrusiveness. We are successfully miniaturising all the important components of computers save two: The keyboard and the monitor.

    The size of both is constrained not only by the technology but by the user. A keyboard must reasonably accommodate two hands, and the information value of a monitor is directly proportional to its size. Without fundamentally new ideas for both, the portable/specialist device is dead in the water.

    There have been some moderate advances in the input category (styluses), but nothing significant in terms of output. Until you can get the display quality of a 19-inch monitor into a 6-inch space, there's nothing doing.

    My personal favorite phantasy solution is contacts with an embedded display system. What's yours?

  • And I've gone back to calling "Anonymous Cowards" "Flaming Bastards"...
  • Mirc is so old school, go get slackware and run x-irc
  • You see, unfortunately, no matter how small you make a portable device.. you will still need a keyboard for input. and thats why these little wireless gadgets wont go very far. If ANYTHING *ends* the PC era, it will be by Ultra-light, Ultra-slim laptops, which equal in power and performance to your average desktop, and for the same price.. hook one of those puppies up to a global wireless isp, and boom, Slashdot.org anywhere from antartica to the middle of some poor third world country =) LATES. DUFF.
  • I think a more accurate description of the situation would be the end of the computer revolution. In the 70's and 80's there was the video game revolution. What started in 1960-something on a computer to track nuclear bombs as demo for the public was named pong, and released. The release of games and variety of stories grew, and they were everywhere. A good example is those tables that have video games inbeded so that you can play Pac Man while munching on your pizza. If you look at the list of games for MAME, you'll see that their popularity just exploded. So the video game revolution is over. What does that mean? Awesome video games are still being released, they are moving to new technologies like the games on some cellular phones, there are still technological increases in the field. The real difference is that the new and really experimental uses of game console have for the most part stopped.

    Another example is the "golden age of radio" which was just before television became popular. All kinds of new types of shows were released, and the format types were being tried together on different stations. There are still new stations, but the formats have really settled in to several categories (Public Radio, Music Radio -- which is subdivided, Talk radio, probably a few more). I would call the 90's, and probably the early 2000's (Is that how to do that?) as the PC revolution. Once the revolution is over, you won't see news stories about how amazing the Internet is, and how awesome computers are. The PC will become common place, and not so exciting, well for non /. readers :-) You'll still want your new 16GHz processor and 180GB hard drive, just the hot new technology will be the new 170Mb/s web-pad phone with a projector and 2600x1900 display. I don't think that it is the end of an era, just the end of a technological revolution because a new one is starting.

    BTW, am I the only one who was wondering why the company TYCO was talking about computers upon reading the headline?

    --Josh
  • he rivals gates in his ability to actually see the sides of metaphorical red barns when they are metaphorically a meter from his face. he is worth every penny to ti.


    sleep, sleep.. who needs sleep?!?
  • We won't be paying anything much for these things. I can't remember where i saw it, but they exist, they consume alot less energy than lcds and they're also just as bright as active matrix.
  • when talking about the PC's fading, we talk about things probably getting smaller, as you said, but, for games and things you need big screens for, you wont see it on a 4" monitor, you'll probably use a smarter device that will be able to make you feel motion. as for the other things the article offers, it mostly says that wireless technology increase while PC's will fade, i personnally think that there's much to improove in PC's, and the main thing is it's rebooting, i dont think that a computer should even have that option. when there's a PC with that doesnt have to be rebooted, i'll be happy. otherwise, PC's are ok, i see them fading maybe in another 10 years, mostly beause they are a standard in every house.
  • Wireless Internet devices are now replacing personal computers as the driving force in the electronics industry

    That doesn't necessarily mean the PC will be used less. It could just mean that he expects the next big IPO craze [ipo.com] (dot-com, linux, ...) to be wireless communications. It could mean that he expects the big technology firms to scramble for wireless market share, now that PC market share is harder to grab and there's less profit involved in selling PC hardware.

    Texas Instruments [ti.com] clearly has a stake in the wireless market -- see the last four paragraphs of the yahoo article [yahoo.com] linked to at the top. I wonder if they're planning to spin off their wireless divisions or keep them within TI.

    --

  • I look forward to the day when I can insert a 1 GigaFlop anal suppository with a scrotal feedback module it to my rectum. This is the future of computing, and seeing as I am among the few eL1t3 developers working on this very technology, I will make millions. You will all bow to my superior mind after the IPO.
  • I'm gonna be extremely bored the day that PCs go away. One of the best things about PCs(at least x86 ones) is that I can just go and grab some random parts at a computer show, or even *gasp* comp usa(they are selling cases now, which they wern't a year ago), and an hour later I can have a system that is better than most of the computers I can buy from the dells and compaqs of the world. Sure, I suspose it would be possible to sit down with bare processors, generic lcds and a soddering iron and make my own palm pilot, but that just doesn't seem the same. I'd say there's a good chance you'll start to see internet appliances like the iopener replace the budget sub 1000 dollar PCs, who's primary reason for existing is to use AOL(Cnn, MTV, the NYSE: You won't find those on the internet!), but for the powerhouse applications like 3dsmax and Quake 3, I just can't see my Palm Pilot taking their place anytime soon.

    When I sit down in front of my gf's p133 with 1 meg video, I dont notice that its not my PII 450 w/ geForce ddr 90% of the time, but it's that 10% of the time that I do notice that reminds me that power desktops are going to be around for a long time.



    ---

    "What is that sound its making?"
  • I don't think wireless Internet access will become popular unless the costs to the subscriber can be greatly reduced. I've read a number of reviews of the devices and the associated services. Most of the devices are brain damaged and the service costs are high. There don't seem to be any open standards for the devices and services.
  • The "end of the pc" doesn't mean that we'll all be using a small screen. Webpads have decent size screens, and I imagine they'll soon be able to connect to keyboards and larger monitors. And if a sufficient number of web-based word processors pop up within the next couple of years, a PC will no longer be required to serve the computing needs of a good percentage of the population (e.g., AOLers). I imagine that in ten years or so, we'll see terminals the size of marbles interfacing with paper-thin monitors that cover one's entire bedroom wall.

  • Yeah, right. (Score:4)

    by pb ( 1020 ) on Monday January 31, 2000 @09:41PM (#1317238)
    All this means is that the TI CEO thinks wireless internet devices or whatever are the "next big thing".

    Well, everyone is investing in all kinds of crazy stuff hoping it will be the next big thing. Feel free to make a generator for it, using the words "innovative", "wireless", "internet", "hand-held", "touch screen", "Open-Source", "integrated", "internet-ready", "small footprint", "network", "Java", "device", "organizer", etc., etc., etc., blah, blah, blah. We'll all be sick of it soon enough.

    Does that mean this will be the next big thing? They sure hope so. We'll see a lot of attempts, and most of them will fail. These devices have their place, and some of them will live on. Some of them might even replace cell phones and pagers, and let you check on your stuff when you're on the road. That's really handy.

    But the PC will live on. PC's will always have more brute computational force, display your games prettier, give you more room to surf the web and chat with people, play your music, etc., etc. Technological advances from both sides will be folded together. I can't wait to have a PC with a nice big flat screen, and a few really efficient processors.

    But I still wouldn't want to take it on the road, and it's still a PC, just as much as my old Tandy with the monochrome monitor and the full-sized keyboard. Heck, anyone who hasn't been keeping up would just know that PC's are more like TV's now, they're prettier and stuff. Outwardly, they look pretty similar. Screen, keyboard, CPU, etc. I don't think that's gonna change for a while.

    Screw paradigm shifts, I'm staying right here. :)
    ---
    pb Reply or e-mail; don't vaguely moderate [152.7.41.11].
  • First let me admit it up front: MY PRIMARY DESKTOP IS A WIN 98 MACHINE.(This is so someone doesnt yell at me later when I mention palm desktop.)

    Anyway, when I need an address, and I am near my computer. I don't pull out my palm pilot, because it is still easier to fire up palm desktop than it is to pull out the palm pilot, pull out the pen, and find the address that way.

    Just a thought.

    ---

    "What is that sound its making?"

  • What if? (Score:4)

    by Insanik ( 141027 ) on Monday January 31, 2000 @09:45PM (#1317240)
    What if all those Indians, Chinese, Indonesians, etc skip the 'PC era?' From what I've read, wireless networks are taking the rest of the world by storm (places other then the US). For instance, I went on a tour in Ireland a while ago. Our tour guide was a telephone-line repairman (For Eircom, I think). It sounds like a shit job by US standards, but is a respectable job in Ireland. Anyway, their telephone networks are not all that great. Many areas on the island use some old radio system for their telephone communications.

    The fact is that almost everybody I met had a cell phone, and nobody had a computer. The internet and email are things that would be of great use to the people. Small and portable web-devices would be much better suited for these people then desktop PCs.

    I am not sure of the situation in the Asian countries, but I am sure smaller devices would suit a majority of the people much better.

    It's not like they HAVE to own a desktop PC before they buy some smaller wireless-web type device.

  • He's right -- in a sense (Score:3)

    by edhall ( 10025 ) <slashdot@weirdnoise.com> on Monday January 31, 2000 @09:46PM (#1317241) Homepage

    The margin on a PC is tiny. It would be impossible for someone to enter the market and achive significant market share. Investors wouldn't support them, since they'd just lose money to the Dell's, Gateway's, and others who have:

    1. achived enormous economies of scale,
    2. still aren't making much money, and
    3. aren't likely to come up with a product new and different enough to raise profit margins.

    None of these limitations apply in the portable/wireless Internet market. Any number of killer, high-margin products remain to be developed and sold. It's a new market, not a "mature" one. TI (and Motorola, and ...) are right to focus on it.

    Desktop and portable PC's aren't going away any time soon--they still be made in the tens of millions for years to come. But that's not where money is to be made.

    Is TI trying to pump up this new market with this sort of PR? Of course! And as well they should. Trying to start something new in the PC market would be a colossal waste of money.

    -Ed
  • Is there a buzzword equivalent of the automatic complaint-letter generator [uiuc.edu]?

    --

  • I'd like a desktop like this:

    ls --ip6links /dev
    /dev/key0 ip6-> key://127.0.0.1.0.1/
    /dev/mon0 ip6-> term://127.0.0.1.0.2/?4096x3072
    /dev/mon1 ip6-> term://127.0.0.1.0.3/?2048x1280
    /dev/ptr2 ip6-> point://127.0.0.1.0.4/
    /dev/hda0 ip6-> ext3fs://127.0.0.1.0.5/mnt/boot
    /dev/hda2 ip6-> ext3fs://127.0.0.1.0.5/mnt/swap
    /dev/htv0 ip6-> hdtv://127.0.0.1.0.6/

    Once IP6 is available, the lan will be but a collection of little parts that are connected to one or more processor units. I can imagine a desktop that has a bunch of tiny gold-plated studs in a decorative pattern, any three of which provide low-voltage power and/or ip6 hot-docking networking to the device(s) that rest upon them.

    I'd head to the meeting room with the wireless mini-monitor to read up on the BeOS Matrix II DVD MPAA controversy on SlashDot, rather than fall asleep.

    ("the lan will be but a collection of little parts" => "well-chosen, brilliant, but total leaflet topic")

  • As history has shown, the costs will diminish over time. The devices will get better. Open standards will emerge.

    It is not going to happen overnight, but look at the way the computer/PC industry has ended up where it is now. I doubt the growth and change of the 'webpad' devices will be exactly the same as that of the computer/PC industry, but there will be similarities. Let's just hope that a monopoly is not one of them ;-)

  • One thing that I've noticed over the years is that people who think they're analyzing the industry are judging where it is at by what's at the forefront.

    In general this argument holds, but if the industry dramatically lowers the threshold to 'upgrade' (because of gaining market share in this 'new' communication economy for instance) that changes it quite a bit. For example in Holland I've witnessed two revolutions the last couple of years. 1) The advent of the mobile phone. Sure it was around for some time, but the consumer market exploded last year, growing in the order of 1000%. This was mainly due to the telephone market opening up and startup companies investing heavily in order to gain market share. 2) Internet use was always lagging over here, but since the introduction of 'free' Internet (no subscription costs) over a year ago we also saw a tenfold increase.

    Since the combination of small embedded mobile systems (did anyone mention Crusoe?) and hi-bandwidth radio packet data transfer (like GPRS) is not just merely another CPU or upgrade but something which offers a range of possibilities, it is difficult to predict how it will evolve.

    Something tells me it's going to be ***BIG***.

  • Everyone says that "wireless internet devices" are the Next Great Thing and it would be nice if that happenned.

    He says that broadband is coming. And it's probably true. Eventually.

    Also we'll can expect to see the same lack of standards that we currently have with cellular phones. How usefull is the "hand held internet device" if you can only use it with a single service provider?

    An open protocal would really help here.

    (Of course this isn't going to end the PC era... More people than ever are going to want PC's serving out web pages from their home when cable and DSL connections become commonplace.)
  • but I doubt they will replace PC's

    one scenario for the future (~2010)

    Every home has a full featured PC (running linux) sitting in the basement which is connected to the internet by fiber (insert fast connection). Next to that is a wireless access point broadcasting to the house.

    You shut the alarm off and pick up your mobile tablet computer from your bedside table (powered by crusoe or similar). You turn on the coffee maker, select the music for your shower, adjust the house temperature, check the night trading on your stocks and then go for the shower. Dressing ritual complete and having finished breakfast with (insert name other than natalie) you decide you need a little workout to get your blood pumping so you don your guantlets (wireless glove like devices) and use the tablet to start a deathmatch with some crack freak from (insert country) which is displayed on your 12'x8' plasma display TV. After fragging a few asses you videoconference with your boss (he called you, tablet-transfer to plasma screen), start the car with the tablet, take 10 minutes to surf the web while purging your lower GI tract (three flushes-autosensing), kiss your wife and then its off to work where you sit infront of a PC! (insert cool interface)

    ~10 internet appliances/PC. The PC handles all the computing intensive stuff and the appliances handle the interface, little more.

    Other scenarios?
  • You have brought up some great points. One thing I want to add to what I originally wrote is that I see no reason why these many emerging technologies can't coexist with the PC. If the stuff gets cheap enough, people will buy it.

    Mankind has always dreamed of destroying the sun.

  • The theory is that the PC era is ending because wireless dumb terminals will slowly replace personal computers in the future. Of course this is predicated on infinitely powerful servers and infinitely large wireless bandwidth, which makes me think that this is all pie in the sky bull.

    What's fascinating is that anyone who has half a brain should be noticing the trend towards web-enabled applications which supplant the browser, rather than having the browser replace applications in general. Of course the pundets are usually the last idio^H^H^H^Hfolks to notice these things...

    By the way, keep in mind that TI has an interest in having the PC go away, so anything that TI announces about the "end of the PC era" should be taken with a grain of salt.

  • Excuse the brevity, but more is not necessary. (Score:3)

    by Effugas ( 2378 ) on Monday January 31, 2000 @10:15PM (#1317252) Homepage
    When people start using anything other than a PC to access the web, I'll start believing that the age of the PC has come to an end.

    WebTV and the Palm Pilot(which doesn't even espouse to replace your computer!) do not a new PC-era make. What are the churn rates on WebTV, incidentally?

    The fact that "x86 compatible" was repeated around 30 times by Transmeta's Ditzel should be noted.

    Yours Truly,

    Dan "My Brain Is Not Yet x86 Compatible" Kaminsky
    DoxPara Research
    http://www.doxpara.com

  • Actually think "cell phone technology." That is, you rig it so that each transmitter only works within a limit area, with the different transmitters working to "trade off" as a device moves from cell to cell. Broadband only helps make things less prone to noise.

    Of course the thing people don't tell you is that this is predicated on cell phone pricing as well. So the real question will be are people willing to surf the web on a 120x120 pixel display for $.10/minute?

    Probably not, unless they're a "gizmo freek" or a masochist...

  • So many people are responding negatively... (Score:3)

    by Lemmy Caution ( 8378 ) on Monday January 31, 2000 @10:20PM (#1317256) Homepage
    that I think he must be on to something.

    To say that the age of the PC is over is probably like saying that the age of TV ended in the late 80's or early 90's with the rise of the home PC. Of course, there are as many TV's as ever, but they no longer represent the defining technology of an era. How many people here hack their TV sets or digital cable boxes?

    I think some people here may be frightened about obsolesence - after all this time developing mastery over a medium, and cultivating arrogance towards those who have failed to get it, could there be a little payback coming down the pike? (Many others, of course, I am sure will be quite able to translate existing expertise to deal with the new environment - I'm looking forward to seeing what happens with IPv6 myself.)

    But I do think that the PC paradigm is inelegant. Cables and wires everywhere, big clunky boxes, etc. - from a design perspective and in terms of aesthetics, the whole thing could use a lot of improvement.

  • TI says this, huh? The same guys who haven't sold a successful personal computer since the TI99-4A? Yeah, I'm sure these guys know what they're talking about.
  • I once had a teacher in a class called Rotating Machinery. He started the class by writing the number five (5) on the blackboard, and then asking the class "What is this?"
    Then he answered his own question. "It's five years until the last turbine for electric power to be installed."
    "Why do we then keep this class then?"
    "Well - This number has been constant for the last 50 years!"

    I think there is a parallell to the PC's, I also think there is only five years until the last PC is sold. And I also think that this number (five years), will remain constant for the next 50 years!

    There will always be people trying to predict the future, and most of them turn out wrong.
  • All of your predictions follow a linear thinking pattern. Nothing is linear, even on a local scale. Quake26? Latest 3D graphics card? Try again. Try harder.

    Remember, even though we (the tech-savvy users) would like to drive the evolution of technology, it is the suits and the phb's that do. DVD is an ideal model of this. We want tons (GB's) of space on a removable disk. We got it, only, we can't write it, and we can't back it up. Not to mention that those CD's that the industry promised would cost about $5 since the production costs were so low, still cost over $20. My pc and the tv merging into an all-powerful appliance? No, thats A Brave Microsoftian World*, that pig will never fly. (I can't possibly take WebTV seriously, I can't believe people pay money for that!) The only integration between TV and the internet I want to see is a one fee system for the cable service, $40 for internet PLUS ~$50 for tv is a kick in the testicles, please just charge me something like $60 for the whole package, thanks.

    * A Brave Microsoftian World [microsoft.com]is a trademark of Microsoft Corporation
  • I think I've read pretty much this story approximately once every six months since about 1996. If the PC is dead, it sure is taking its sweet time, because it's been "dead" for years.

    Will you go to lunch!

  • I doubt very much that wireless devices will replace desktop PC's. There are still many developments coming out for desktops, plus the full size keyboard is the fastest method of input available without speech recognition. There are comfort issues as well. I know whenever I work off my laptop that I can't wait to get to the nice full screen of my desktop. I know PDA's are cool, but I doubt I'll use them for anything rather than pure functionality. As others have no doubt said, consider the source. Texas Instruments completely missed out on the PC revolution, although they tried to cash in with the horribly misplaced TI-99. The TI-99 was way ahead of its time in proving why a great deal of people don't like using a tiny computer - it's just plain hard to do. I couldn't envision using a handheld device for anything more than using a GPS transceiver to negotiate my way out of a traffic jam, or to jot down an appointment or quick note. I certainly couldn't work on the Great American Novel while listening to Launchcast and downloading porn...I mean, the latest kernel update. "The network will be going down until I can figure out how to put up with all of you."
  • I agree. I have tried to get Slashdot to report on wireless for about a year now without success, and I have started to believe it might be something about the fact that they don't want to see their old systems and skills becoming obsolete now that they are king of the hill and media darlings. And so the new and young quickly turn conservative.

    Oh yeah, maybe the reluctance also comes from the fact that the biggest growth areas of wireless isn't the US, but Japan and especially Europe [newsweek.com]. And we all know that if it isn't from the US, it must be worthless...

    ************************************************ ***

  • Re:What if? (Score:1)

    by Anonymous Coward
    The only thing your story proves is that cellular telephone networks are cheaper to build out than land-line based ones.

    Why then is cellular service more expensive than land line service in the US, you ask? Because the people who own the cellular nets also own comprehensive landline nets, and are pricing cellular service as a 'luxury' item for purely marketing reasons. Once the market has been saturated, expect wireless service to become even cheaper than landline. (To the extent that POTS landline even exists in a world of DSL and digital cable networks.)
  • I think your topic pretty much answers your question.
  • We will have PCs or some other kind of desktop computers in future. The reason is simple: using office applications (wordprocessors, spreadsheets, ...) in real life is almost impossible with portable/handheld computer. I've been trying to learn to write documents with portable PC and all I've got is wrist pains and headache.
  • well it's not uncommon for late adopters to leap frog technologies. for example, in china, land (telephone) lines are more expensive than plopping down a basestation and giving everyone in town a cellphone.

    there are similar economics w/ PCs vs PDAs. the functionality of a PC is hindered by its distribution channel (box tied to the wall, w/ many moving parts, etc etc). it's very attractive to get the same kind of functionality in a different package.

    --thi

  • That's why they made the iMac for you and the rest of the girls.

  • generalized computing vs. services (Score:1)

    by Anonymous Coward
    We're going to move towards more services. I use PCs to do services, like mapblast, or lookup titles on amazon.com, to search for the location of Angkor Wat (for a homework assignment), or to grab bits of intelligence from databases... When I can do any of those things from a cellphone, I won't need to use the computer except when creating information. And rarely even then. I can type on anything, bluetoothed keyboards and roving monitors, or palm pilots. Doing somethings will be easier with a PC - bitbashing an image, or doing a lot of file organization/text editting, or creating code/script.

    But most people don't do those things.

    They get online, check their yahoomail, check location of things, lookup a phone number, consult their addressbook, call someone up, and off they go. And those are the people that matter the most -- it's called marketshare.

    -- Ender, Duke_of_URL
  • output:
    why not a laser beam that projects the image into your eye? or a nice headset style deal, like the Sony Glasstron headsets? eventually, direct interface, possibly using nanites.
    input:
    speech to replace the keyboard. hand sensors or eye tracking could replace the mouse. eventually input could controlled somehow through the direct brain intereface.


    input is in my opinion the more difficult area.
  • I live in Europe, supposedly the land of wireless technology. And yes wireless does many things for me that a PC cannot. BUT and this is a big BUT, wireless also does MANY things that my PC cannot. Wireless will not replace my PC, it may supplement it...

    Here are some problems with wireless devices. Ever try to do your email on a telephone? It is painful and uncomfortable. Ever try to do calender stuff on a wireless device? Again very painful. The problem is the form factor. And giving the device voice capabilities will not help. The reason being is because with everyone talking it will be pure hell... Even now in Europe there are no-handy (cell phone) zones because people do not want you talking like a maniac. Think about it this, (ok it is a hypthetical comparison), but in Star Trek people only use voice for general operations. People still use a tablet to do most of their work.

    Instead what I think will make a big impact are notebooks. More and more I find myself purchasing a notebook instead of a desktop PC. Hence the transmeta folks got it right by targetting the notebook market.

    The reason why a notebook will become indispensible is because you will want your word processor and your spreadsheet etc, etc... A web version of a word processor is nothing but a toy. A web based word processor can only be used to write a very simple note, nothing more. The problem lies in the fact that people add comments, style sheets to documents which a simple word processor cannot handle. With a notebook you have everything and a local storage device to boot. It is the ultimate travel device.

    I also think the Windows CE subnote books (HP Jornada) are the ultimate simple notebook. They have everything you need, turn on instantely like an electronic appliance, form factor allows it to be used regularly and are dead simple to use!!!
  • I look forward to the day when I can insert a 1 GigaFlop anal suppository with a scrotal feedback module it to my rectum. This is the future of computing, and seeing as I am among the few eL1t3 developers working on this very technology, I will make millions. You will all bow to my superior mind after the IPO.

    Suppositrodes :)
    One of the Bill, the Galactic Hero novels IIRC.
    Not sure if it was one of the Harry Harrison ones
    or the later ones by differing authors.
  • Well since TI doesn't produce PCs (or do they? Never heard of a ti pc), he's probably hallucinating. Yes, smaller, portable computers (pdas, webpads, notebooks, handhelds, whatever) will become more and more improtant, but I doubt few people would want to not-have a PC at home. Let's face it, PCs are just too versatile. You can do anything with them, while portables are always more specialized. You can write your letters and emails with your PC AND play the latest 3d-games.

    If nothing else, desktop pcs will always have the advantage of size - you can just cram much more hardware into those things, and power is never a concern.

    So yes, desktop PCs will become somewhat less dominant, but to say that their era is ending anytime soon is nothing more than proof of a vivid imagination. ;)

  • I would agree that this is the ideal thing for the 'PnP Generation'. - But its not for me, or many others.
    Where would the fun be if you couldn't successfully construct your own pc from components which you purchased from 30+ different suppliers so you could have the machine *exactly* the way you want it?
    Perhaps one day the only PC's we can buy will be web appliances (super servers will be hugely overpriced) and that will ultimately be the demise of the hardware hacker - perhaps its just the price we have to pay for being 'Old Skool' :)

    That is until, the immortal day when a slashdotter gets out of bed (as if), turns to his Web Appliance(TM) and thinks:
    "I wonder. If I take the back off this.....and get that 'ol UW SCSI interface from over there......and use this lead and.........:)"
  • Wow, I bet the TI'll be raking in the bucks tho when all those high school kids find out the new TI graphing calculator lets them look at their favorite porn sites in class! :)

    TI's just desperate to have a consumer product again, so they'll latch on to anything. I have no use for a PDA in their current form. Give it an eyeglass based heads up type display and an input glove for typing and you'll have my interest. No voice recognition for me tho, until it's sentient I dont want to talk to my computer.

  • > plus the full size keyboard is the fastest
    > method of input available without speech
    > recognition.

    I can type a lot faster than I can talk really.
    (every good 10 finger typist can do that as a
    matter of fact.)

    Speech recognition != speed improvement


    I mostly agree with the rest of your comment...


    J.

  • When people start using anything other than a PC to access the web, I'll start believing that the age of the PC has come to an end.

    Let's assume that you include Macs in the set "PC". Then start believing.

    The Sega Dreamcast is a web access device; at Xmas here in the UK the ISP providing access to Dreamcast users was overwhelmed by the number of registrations.

    Virgin recently ordered an initial 10,000 iBrow internet appliances to give away free as part of their Virgin.net service.

    My father regularly uses his Psion to pull down meteorological info pages before flying.

    I agree with those who see PCs declining as a percentage of the set of web access devices. The mass of the population don't want or need a general purpose computer to access the web, they want an immediate-on dedicated device like the telephone or the TV.

  • (as deity has already pointed out himself he meant thin-client in the last paragraph)

    Anyway, I know I will always have a real PC in my room because as cute as these things are if you're going to do any real stuff on a computer you need at the least a decent sized keyboard and unless Transmeta come up with a cool miniature versions of a pair of hands for me to replace my current obsolete pair with then they can forget about me using their toy at any time other than getting the bus into work (assuming i don't work from home at some stage)
    This will start off the same as a mobile phone (get one to be seen because they're the "Wave of The Future [tm]) but end up the way they are now (EVERYONE has one and the novelty will wear off)

  • Where is MicroMozilla, or MicroLinux?
    a lot of examples fo r MicroLinux can be found here [linuxdevices.com] at,
    • embedded linux - including Red Hat Tools for Embedded Developers

    • EL/IX Application Programming Interface - an embedded application programming interface
      Graphical IDE - cold fusion
      Hard Hat Linux - os for embedded appls
      mobile linux - allows linux to work on very small devices

    however I agree with browsers... very few free open sourced browsers (for embedded systems) can be found (that I know of). The only one I can think of that could be suitable is being produced by Opera [operasoftware.com] (thats not released and it's cli and not open source. I remember reading about this in an interview on /. but cannot find it. Opera developed a cli version and may release it.). But perhaps each device will have a browser developed for it by the manufacturer (or purchased). I dont see how MS can win in this arena as they dont have control the operating system and they can't possibly produce a browser to fit each system and respect the gui. More important is the protocol to transmit the information [w3.org] (follow to the next message)...


    links:
    http://www.linuxdevices.com/cgi-bin/news_view.cgi
    http://lists.w3.org/Archives/Public/www-mobile/199 8Jul/0001.html
    http://www.wapforum.org/
    http://www.operasoftware.com
  • The Big Thing is never the new tecnology.
    The Big Thing (tm) is the new application of new *established* tecnology.

    (Like: the net is not new, but the way we use it is)

  • You can type 60wpm if you're good and talk maybe 20


    What the hell! That's like one word every 3 seconds! The speech record is 300+ and I'm sure I speak well at least 150wpm myself.
    The record for typing is 120 I think.


    The fastest way to get the Start Button going is to the Windows Key! I HATE people who don't use keyboard shortcuts etc. I'm working in a computer company here and I cringe when I see my bosses trying to enter stuff into Dialog boxes and the like. The insist on using the mouse to change what text box they're typing (when the tab key is a shitload quicker, easy etc.) These people are supposed to have been programming for years! They never hit the enter key (always insisting on fiddling around looking for a box like "Submit" or "Apply" to click on. I wouldn't be surprised if they used a NEWLINE button on a word processor to start a new line (if such a button existed)
    What about Ctrl+C,Alt+Tab,Ctrl+V to copy and paste from one app to another.

    End Rant

  • The days of the PC are certainly not over! If anything computers will become more personal, all these little internet enabled devices will certainly be more personal than the anon. beige boxes on desks. In a way the era is ending, cos the boxes are getting smaller and more colorful but when you really look at it personal computing has only just begun and will never end. Computers will become more and more personal (did I hear the word cyborg at the back?) Sparkes

    *** www.linuxuk.co.uk relaunches 1 Mar 2000 ***
  • It makes sense to me that the only use for PC's in the future will be programming the apps that sit on the little gadgets. I can't think of anything else that can't be better done by a job-specific gadget. What do people actually use PC's for?

    1. Games. We have gadgets for that.
    2. Playing DVDs, MP3s and so forth. We have gadgets that do that too, and they'll get lots better, soon.
    3. Writing essays/letters/articles/reports. All you need for that is an email gadget with a good text editor and a big screen. Give it five years and they'll be here in plenty.
    4. Running specific apps like the one the doctor uses in the surgery, the one his receptionist uses to make the appointments, and so on. All easier when run on a Gadget that talks to a Qube in the cupboard: then the doc can take it on call with him.

    OK there's more out there, but the majority of non-coders with pc's at work or at home are doing stuff like this, and they can save a lot of space by using the appropriate gadget.

    Besides which, I don't see a reason for people like my dad to spend 600-1000 pounds on a pc when all they really need is maybe 200 pounds worth of assorted gadgets. Which will be far easier to use, since the less you want to do with something, the simpler the UI can be.

    Just imagine, your grandma sees your PC and goes "ugh, how complicated", but as soon as she gets home she emails her friend, orders her weekly shopping over the net and settles down to read the knitting newsgroup. Or something.

    Oh, and Windows can be entirely replaced by EPOC.
  • That guy is just full of crap, he's so full of it it's coming out his ears!
  • Well, take South Africa for example. They now have GSM cellular phone coverage for the whole country. They've skipped stringing copper in large parts of the country, the rural areas. People there have cell phones, which are much more practical in terms of infrastructure (you only need some base stations (which don't need to be wired either, cause you can use microwave to link 'em all up). I can see the same thing happening in 3rd world countries. A $300 palmtop computer with which you can read and write email and do some browsing is gonna be much more useful to these people than a huge electricity hungry desktop PC which costs at least three times that.

    Cheers!

    Costyn.
  • Wired has a one page article this month in their print mag about those organic displays. Apparently them folks at IBM are busily working on that now. Unfortunately, them folks at IBM are always working on a lot of cool stuff, but only some of it ever actually makes it to market. As with all other things techy, we can all just wait and see.
  • If you really wanted to do a story about trends in the PC market a more likely title would be"PCs get smaller" or "PCs becoming more integrated". The PC industry realized the potential in the sub $500 PC market so there has been an ongoing trend toward lower cost, more tightly integrated PCs. Call them Internet appliances or whatever you like, they aren't the mainstay of the PC industry.

    Some of the more recent advances in making PCs more affordable include the integration of modems and video cards into the motherboard; integration of sound cards (sound Codec) and video into the CPU chipset; and the new MicroATX and FlexATX motherboard form factors.

    Clearly these new innovations are not a threat to the PC integrator. If anything they are a new market. The costs of assembing a PC solution from these more integrated components is much less and if they choose to compete in the sub $500 market. Though there is some threat from todays manufacturers and distributors becoming stronger competitors.

    Concerning the mythic Microsoft X-Box and Sony Playstation 2, the specs on these are out and while they will be competitors in the sub $500 market they will pose little threat to the higher-end markets. Business software is becoming more and more demanding of the PC platform. For the most part high-end video cards and CPUs require more power and generate more heat so small integrated units are poorly suited to this. These net appliances are also designed with economy of scale in mind.

    The many, cheap approach is not suited to a rapidly evolving product cycle. If MS or Sony came out with new models of their little boxes ever month (as is often the case in today's PC market) the increased cost of support and risk of defects would make the low-end market cost prohibitive. If anything the PC market is swallowing the WebTV/console gaming market, not the other way arround.
  • I dont know about you people but ever since I have been using computers (1997) I've been reading about the predicted death of the PC on tech news sites. Every single time, I found that this was a marketing scheme to use the huge amount of attention the PC industry gets to promote some other product.

    This post is not an exception. It's one thing to be excited about Linux's possible inroads into small devices and stuff but it's another to use marketing as news. I have never been one to complain about Slashdot's editorial choices but, put plainly, this sucks.

  • Indeed, at work we are all clamoring for smaller keyboards and smaller monitors. Hey, I want one of those 3 inch monitors at home! Maybe I can even get a 2 inch! And I definitely want a smaller TV.

    Im sorry, but I no more care for webbrowsing in a mobile phone than I crave it for my toaster. It just isnt practical. Yah, sure, order plane tickets and everything straight off the phone. Well, guess what, you have a _phone_. Call them. Its a helluvalot faster than attempting to navigate a micromonitor with itsy bitsy buttons to figure out how their ordering systems work.

    Im sure there are a lot of sortof useful things, but a lot of the uses a computer have simply have diametrically opposed demands. And a lot of it would be completely redundant. The mobile device industry is driven by hype, not demand or practicality.

  • "But mister Beeblebrox... (Score:4)

    by XNormal ( 8617 ) on Tuesday February 01, 2000 @03:03AM (#1317298) Homepage
    ...it was on the sub-ether radio this morning it said your were dead..."

    "Yeah, that's right. I just haven't stopped moving yet"


    ----

  • Which direction do people think the wireless market will take:

    • from the direction of the PC, where new features appear on PCs first then get miniaturised and incorporated into mobiles (ala laptop/PDA)
    • features go first straight into mobiles, and rely on early adopters to absorb the costs to before it is brought to mass market.


    I'm going to cop out and suggest a combination of both. Of course the question is moot if the PC finally manages to evolve. Personally I would like to see properly distributed processing. I don't see why the processor in my washing machine should be sitting around doing nothing except for one hour per week!

    Phillip.

  • Whether or not PCs die out, in the past year or so, and increasingly so in the future, video games have required specialized gaming hardware. It used to be that I could go over to a friend's house where their parents had bought a computer for word processing and install eight or nine games, and they would actually become interested in computers.

    These days, games cannot be an afterthought when buying a computer, sadly. It was Tim Sweeney who commented that engines are going to have to become even more scalable, because the 'home user PC' and the video gamer PC are really starting to get a vast difference between them.

    I think this could be a major curbing point for PC game evolution, if engines do not become VERY scalable.

    Scalability isn't the be-all end-all solution, either. While you support features that can be turned off, they can't really be directly related to gameplay. For example, in Quake 2, the OpenGL renderer on my 3DFx ran in 16bpp, but the textures were all 8bpp. (The extra bittage was used for coloured lighting.) The 8bpp software renderer held the high colour renderer back.

    Such is the price of scalability.
  • "The Reports of my Death are Greatly Exaggerated."

    I think that says it best. Granted, wireless is where the next big boom in growth will be, mainly in areas where Phone service either sucks, is expensive, or both. :) (Europe comes to mind)
    In the US, we are used to cheap phones, and are now getting spoiled on cheap broadband access. Being mindful of our neighbors can't hurt us.
  • I think you're spot-on, yuriwho [slashdot.org]. The usefulness of these devices is going to be dependent on what if any bandwidth is available at a given moment. If your home PC is attached to a wire it certainly can process more information than a gigantic cell network, and it's connected regardless of whether you're in a restaurant or a tunnel or whatever. I think the PC is going to be where all your agents run, sifting through the big random pile of data the Internet is doomed to become, monitoring your stocks, analysing the market, shopping for that rare Pokémon, paying your taxes, running pattern recognition on the WebCams monitoring your house and back yard for burglars, and so forth. It'll ping your portable from time to time, and based on what it determines is the available bandwidth and cost thereof between you and it, prioritize and summarize the information it sends you. If you only have 300bps between you because you're so far out in the sticks the only feed you have is a $30/k download, $250/k upload satellite relay, it will restrict messages to "your house is on fire"-priority text; if you have unlimited-use at 9mpbs, it'll feed you a gameshow where it's transparenty rerendering all the contestants as naked supermodels answering questions about sex.

    In effect, in addition to its own modest offline processing power, your portable is a thin client to a real computer doing incredibly powerful middleware stuff.

    Huge processing power and huge bandwidth require heavy equipment, lots of electricity, and wires to carry the data. If your PC sits at home doing all the fancy stuff for you, we solve two problems at once: how to manage unpredictable wireless bandwidth and how to handle the huge processing requirements of tomorrow's software.

    --

  • Re:Nothing we haven't heard before. (Score:3)

    by Squid ( 3420 ) on Tuesday February 01, 2000 @06:34AM (#1317338) Homepage
    If it has a 19" screen, chances are it's not a PC, it's a workstation.

    It's the middle-of-the-road, consumer PCs you find at Best Buy that we should be ushering out. These are the equivalent of a 1979 Malibu six-cylinder, too underpowered for its size, too big and gas-guzzling to be a daily driving car, but since it was the smallest and cheapest thing on the showroom floor, you drove it home. Consumers buy these midgrade or lowgrade $1000 machines basically because that's all Best Buy has.

    Average users don't really like PCs (or Macs). They're big and bulky, they are FURNITURE (they take up a whole desk), they're slow (no other appliance in the house takes 2 minutes to start up), and they never really quite do what they want. They'd rather play video games and watch movies on the TV, do their checkbook at the kitchen table or on the desk in the bedroom (using some smaller portable unit), and sit in the easy chair to surf the Web.

    The modern PC isn't that far removed from an old room-sized mainframe - the PC often expands to fill the room it's in. You can't bring it to you, you must go to it, which means it, its data, and all the media you see or hear on it must remain forever trapped in whichever room you put it - which in most households, is never the same room as the entertainment center. You pay the price for its flexibility by concentrating much of your activities in that room, at that desk.

    Laptops aren't the answer for this - they're downscaled PCs, saddled with the additional limitations of battery life, tiny screens, sick keyboards, and high price tags. And they're the solution to the wrong problem - they take the PC on the road. I don't want to take a PC on the road, I want to take it to my easy chair.

    Cell phones and PDAs aren't the answer either - they're small devices designed to do specific things, which by itself isn't the problem until you overdrive them by making them do too many things. Let them do what they are designed to do and do it well, and let larger devices - say, a 9x12 or 11x14 LCD "sketchpad" - start to absorb the role of the consumer PC (finances, Web surfing, etc).

    Workstations are another matter entirely. Artists, programmers, and writers (and Slashdot readers) - and in general, people who focus on the COMPUTER (not merely the applications thereof, as in the consumer who buys a computer for what it will do for THEM) - are fine with a tower under a desk and a 21" piece of glass in front of their faces. And even then, what writer or artist wouldn't desperately love to practice their craft under a shade tree? Bjork composes most of her music these days walking the beach with a tiny (CD-player-sized) handheld sequencer and a pair of headphones. I'd trade the 21-inch monitor for the ability to code Perl on the beach, wouldn't you? Especially if I'm saving and testing my code via wireless on the tower at home.

    The car analogy continues: use a truck (workstation) for big work, small efficient Hondas (wireless 11x14 pen-driven digital notepads) for day-to-day stuff (surfing the Web, doing the books sitting on the sofa), and motorcycles (handhelds) for when you want to feel the wind in your hair (writing Perl on the beach). The alternative is to continue as we have done, letting PC vendors do like Detroit auto makers and continue to build dinosaurs just because that's all they know how to make.

    Therein lies the revolution.
  • What if all those Indians, Chinese, Indonesians, etc skip the 'PC era?'

    And play quake 4 on their cell phones? Prepare their office correspondence on their wristwatches? Give me a break.

    From what I've read, wireless networks are taking the rest of the world by storm (places other then the US) ... The fact is that almost everybody I met had a cell phone, and nobody had a computer.

    You mean nobody was actually carrying their desktop around on the street :-) What has this got to do with the "end of the PC era"? Personally, I have a cell phone, actually more than one, and I've got normal computers at work, and at home. I don't think I'm so unusual in that. People are getting very confused about this "end of an era" thingy.

    The internet and email are things that would be of great use to the people. Small and portable web-devices would be much better suited for these people then desktop PCs.

    Again, while such devices are very likely to become more popular, you'll see them being used in addition to ordinary computers that you can type on, and that you don't have to squint to read. In fact, my cell phone would make an excellent wireless modem for my laptop if the connect charges weren't so ridiculously high.

  • Ugh. It would suck to have a bunch of people in the office all talking to their computers. And people think cellphones are annoying. Wait'll they have to deal with people walking around talking to their pda too. Until I can subvocalize to my PC, I don't think I'm going to enjoy speech recognition all that much.

  • I think that within 5 years it will be commonplace for any average home in the US to have one computer for all the high-end needs

    Only one? Like most homes have only one TV? I doubt it. I think the trend will be towards more PCs rather than fewer. They'll just become cheaper and cheaper. Unless they get so powerful that 3 or 4 people can play different games, surf the web, and/or use their favorite spreadsheet at the same time on the household server and not need their own box, just their own monitor, keyboard, mouse, etc, I think we'll start seeing more households with more PCs.

  • ...in fall 1983 when they started dumping their formerly $900 pc's for $49.95 - it was 16 bit too!
    One problem may have been software authors had to submit their work to TI for approval, amongst other thing....

    This Ancient History factoid brought to you by:
    Ye Olde Phart

    Zen Master Jack
  • Western Europes mobile network is exploding. GSM is hitting east asia and australia. The US seems to have been take by suprise for once and caught napping. I thought the US network would be better, but I was shocked to find out that it is quite dated, specially in WAP areas

    Hehe. No way, can you say CDMA? GSM is the one that's outdated. Hopefully, once CDMA takes over the world we won't have the stupid division between NA/Euro cell phone standards.

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