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Father of DVD Interviewed 94

Posted by michael from the hard-disks-the-formidable-enemy dept.
An Anonymous Coward writes "Interview with Koji Hase. Talks about some of the interesting history behind the DVD format, copyright protection, and competing formats for audio."
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Father of DVD Interviewed More

Father of DVD Interviewed

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  • DVD (Score:1)

    by whirred ( 182193 )
    If only he could see what it has become. DVD 9 and pro-scan are marked improvements, but it still has a long way to go.
  • Obsolescence will remain forever a problem, Hase warns, as long as companies continue to take proprietary approaches to home networking and automation.

    Somehow, I can't quite see that quote coming from the average corporate suit, where "proprietary" is regarded as a feature not a flaw...

  • Pet Peeve and question. (Score:5, Interesting)

    by line-bundle ( 235965 ) on Saturday May 25, 2002 @05:09AM (#3583473) Homepage Journal
    The worst thing I find about DVD is region encoding. Why is it there? It seems they wanted to put something to replace the PAL/SECAM/NTSC barrier. But I feel it might not help at all because people will (are?) buying Region 1 DVD player (I am from region 6 or thereabouts and things only appear for our region after decades).

    And a question. Is the NTSC stuff encoded on the DVD or is it an artifact of the conversion from digital to analong of the image?

    • Re:Pet Peeve and question. (Score:5, Informative)

      by l1gunman ( 463233 ) on Saturday May 25, 2002 @05:17AM (#3583490)
      The 'logic' behind region encoding is to allow the motion picture industry to phase the release of movies across the globe.

      Not all movies are released at the same time in all countries. They usually are released in the US first, Europe and Japan next, etc. A movie may actually be released on DVD or VHS in the US before it hits the theatres in some countries.

      Regional playback controls are thus an attempt to keep DVD sales from eating into theatre revenues in countries where theatre release is significantly later in time than it is in the US.

      I don't agree with it, but that's the reason.

      What if the hokey-pokey really is what it's all about?

      • Re:Pet Peeve and question. (Score:5, Insightful)

        by Jordy ( 440 ) <jordan@COWsnocap.com minus herbivore> on Saturday May 25, 2002 @06:42AM (#3583588) Homepage
        I always hated this argument because old movies that are no longer in theaters are also put on region locked discs.

        Examples of region locked discs (from IMDB):

        * The Wizard of Oz (1939)
        * Gone with the Wind (1939)
        * Snow White (1937)
        * Tron (1982)
        * Star Trek 1 (1979)
        * Casablanca (1943)
        * The Maltese Falcon (1941)

        I could go on and on and on.

        The real reason for region control is price fixing, plain and simple.

        • Re:Pet Peeve and question. (Score:4, Insightful)

          by cowbutt ( 21077 ) on Saturday May 25, 2002 @06:59AM (#3583605) Journal
          I always hated this argument because old movies that are no longer in theaters are also put on region locked discs.

          Examples of region locked discs (from IMDB):

          [snip]

          I could go on and on and on.

          The real reason for region control is price fixing, plain and simple.

          I kinda bought Hollywood's "we want to stagger DVD release dates because we need to stagger cinema releases because we don't have enough prints to go round" argument until I noticed this for myself a couple of months ago (not having really paid much attention to DVD until then...)

          This is basic economics; if you're able to artificially segment your market, you'll optimise the total revenue by charging the most each segment will pay for your product. Without region coding, europeans like me would probably be importing all our DVDs from S-E Asia or the US where they're cheaper.

          Playing the DVD game ensures you'll get screwed by the content publishers because the rules have been set by them entirely to their advantage. I've chosen not to play (apart from region-free discs such as music...)

          --

          • Price discrimination can only be undertaken by monopolies like RIAA companies.
          • In Canada, a DVD of a certain movie could be about 14.99$.

            In the US, that same region 1 DVD is 14.99$.

            However, Canadian dollars cost less than US dollars. This is why US people should import all DVDs from Canada and never pay for them in the US, because the MPAA is just trying to segment Canada/US (which, considering NAFTA, shouldn't happen) for greater profits.

            This is also why any Canadians that do online shopping will be boned hard if they don't go to the ONE Canadian DVD site online that exists: cnl.com [cnl.com]. They have great, Canadian prices and will ship titles to the US too.
      • I think once digital projection for movie theaters becomes common by 2010, the idea of phased release of movies may become obselete.

        The reason for phased release is simple: the very high cost of duplicating movie prints (each complete set for a 120-minute movie costs about US$2,500 to US$3,000 and you have to make about 6,000 to 8,000 prints for a blockbuster movie; you also have to factor into the cost of shipping each 35 mm print set weighing 210 pounds each for a 120-minute movie).

        With the development of blue-spectrum LED lasers in the last few years, a theatrical-quality digital movie could probably fit on a single 300 mm optical disc; given today's technology to master and duplicate optical discs it'll probably be substantially cheaper to master and duplicate 8,000 optical discs than 8,000 film prints, not to mention shipping costs being a very tiny fraction of a 35 mm movie print! :-)

        With that substantial drop in duplicating and shipping costs simultaneous worldwide release of blockbuster movies may become the norm, not the exception.

        • Re:Pet Peeve and question. (Score:2, Insightful)

          by KH ( 28388 )
          I see your point, but I thought the major reason of phased release is the time it takes to dub or sub-title the movies. Not everyone on earth can understand English. This could add, depending on the size of the market and resource in a particular area, significant time between the finish of the US version and others.

          Perhaps another thing to consider is that sometimes they have to edit a movie to comply to whatever regulations they have in a particular company. There are equivalents of MPAA in other countries, too.

          One more thing to consider might be, in relation to the above, each country may have their own distributors and depending on whatever the suit in the distributors think, they might want to edit. This could add some time between the releases.

          Not that releasing at the same time all over the world is not impossible, but it is true that the preparation for a release in a different country can take extra resources.

          On a bit off topic issue, I hate when local distributors change the titles. It's not just a matter of translating English title to German or Japanese (well, I have experiences only in those countries). They sometimes stick (sometimes extremely silly) ENGLISH title to movies that laready had an English title. Recent examples I encountered were: Miss Undercover for Miss Congeniality (couldn't spell, so I figure why they changed the title), and ``Crime is King'' for `3000 miles to Graceland.'' (Is there any law in Germany that prohibits the use of English system? BTW, the quarter pounder of cheese is called Royal TS in Germany. And yes, they sell beer in McDonnald's.) I feel pretty embarrassed when no one knows a popular movie that has an English title :(

        1. a lot of "extra features" (commentaries, documentaries, trailers) are licensed for one particular market, so can't appear on discs destined for other regions for legal purposes

        2. certain zones cover a whole heap of different languages, and more subtitle / alternate soundtracks mean more physical disk space is required. As a result, some "extra features" may disappear to make room for these other languages (you may also find that the bitrate encoding of the film is also significantly less on these disks as well). This can also be applied to the differences between NTSC and PAL/SECAM pictures.

          Why the manufacturers don't just make different language releases, I don't know (presumably to keep costs down), but for whatever purpose, they have divvied up the zones along language lines, as well as geographical and release date-ical.

      • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

        by account_deleted ( 4530225 )
        Comment removed based on user account deletion

    • Re:Pet Peeve and question. (Score:5, Informative)

      by sph ( 35491 ) on Saturday May 25, 2002 @07:12AM (#3583620)
      The worst thing I find about DVD is region encoding. Why is it there?

      The original idea was to prevent importing movies on DVD from other regions before they actually hit cinemas locally. The point has become somewhat vague, because many discs are released only on some region, so many people have to resort to importing to get all the stuff they like. Interestingly, lately many blockbusters have opened at cinema almost simultaneously worldwide, which is definitely a good development. I wouldn't be surprised if this was at least partly because of the DVD importing still being possible despite region codes.

      It seems they wanted to put something to replace the PAL/SECAM/NTSC barrier.

      That barrier still exists on DVDs, but it's easier to overcome than with VHS. There are PAL and NTSC discs. Every PAL player can also play NTSC discs, but only some NTSC players can play PAL discs. If component signal is used (RGB is very common in Europe) you don't have to bother with color encodings, only whether your television can sync to 50/60Hz and display all the lines needed.

      Is the NTSC stuff encoded on the DVD or is it an artifact of the conversion from digital to analong of the image?

      Picture on DVD is fully digital MPEG-2, hence it has no NTSC, PAL or SECAM color encoding. Picture resolution and FPS still match either NTSC or PAL (SECAM has same specs as PAL, so there are no SECAM discs), because almost every display device used with DVDs still uses them. NTSC resolution on DVD is 720x480, while PAL is 720x576. Player handles 2:2 (PAL) or 3:2 (NTSC) pulldown on film material, and is also responsible for generating actual NTSC/PAL/SECAM color encoding if something else than component signal is used in connecting player to the display device. Needless to say, using component signal gives the best image quality you can achieve without going progressive, because it requires no additional signal format conversions after DA-conversion.

      It's also good to note that because of the slight differences between NTSC and PAL discs, well-encoded PAL disc has better picture and smoother movement than well-encoded NTSC disc.
    • And a question. Is the NTSC stuff encoded on the DVD or is it an artifact of the conversion from digital to analong of the image?

      Since NTSC is about 30fps (well 29.97) and PAL is 25fps they record DVDs in different formats i think (lets ignore SECAM). I thought a much smarter solution would be to store the film at 24fps on the disk (ie cinema speed) and then do the conversion in the DVD player itself. Since allot of new TVs can show both formats, it stands to reason that you could build tvs to show 24fps. Also, lots of newer displays have grown up with DVD - plasma and all that, so they could have designed them for 24fps. Not only that, but a good deal of people watch DVDs on their computers that can certainly play 24fps. Maybe im wrong, i don't know.... also, the tv-out on my computer will let me show mpegs etc. on my tv screen (PAL - old) at different speeds with no flicker.. I think its just another example of stupid old formats and conventions.

      Region encoding is much more than a format barrier replacement. Its simply there so the they can get more money. Staggered releases and different prices, its all evil capitalist/corporate pig stuff. The whole thing sucks
      • DVDs do store the film on disc at 24 fps (at least, for discs where film was the original source, and not TV). The DVD player is responsible for doing the conversion to the proper output frame rate for the TV, and also doing the conversion to interlaced format.
      • Since NTSC is about 30fps (well 29.97) and PAL is 25fps they record DVDs in different formats i think (lets ignore SECAM). I thought a much smarter solution would be to store the film at 24fps on the disk

        They do store the film at 24fps on the disc. The difference between a PAL disc and an NTSC disc is the resolution. PAL is 720x576 and NTSC is 720x480. The player converts the 24fps MPEG stream into 50fps or 60fps for the telly.

        Be aware there's an incredible problem with the frame rate conversion. NTSC is 3:2 (odd frames twice, even frames thrice) which converts 24 fps into 60fps neatly. PAL is 2:2 (show each frame twice) which converts 24fps into 48fps. But PAL TVs are syncing at 50fps! So PAL DVD players actually show the movie a little bit fast to keep the frames syncing. This pitch shifts the audio track enough to be irritating, especially if you are playing DVD music (meaning music on DVD, not DVD-A).

        Fortunately if you know the problem you can work around it. Some DVD players can output a bastardised format called PAL60. This is the PAL colour encoding at 60Hz. Almost any modern Australian TV supports this bastardised format.

        Though an even better solution would be consumer-grade multisync TVs. Then you could sync the TV at 24fps and ignore the upsampling process. I don't know if any consumer-grade DVD player can output 24fps.

        • Interesting, you've almost restored my faith in DVD. Atleast it means we (PAL) get getter quality than the yanks (who needs 30fps) oh... except the audio problem :( I know that on video they electronically lower the pitch of the audio to make up for this.. why don't they do the same for dvd?

          What about DVD on computers? surely they can output at 24fps... well i know they can if i rip the mpeg stream onto my hd :)
          • I know that on video they electronically lower the pitch of the audio to make up for this.. why don't they do the same for dvd?

            I don't know. What you say sounds possible but I've not heard of it being done.

            What about DVD on computers? surely they can output at 24fps

            As you say, computer DVDs can and do output at the correct framerate with no pitch changes.

    • The difference in "NTSC" and "PAL" DVD discs is the number of lines encoded to the disc, the hardware is what puts it into NTSC or PAL format.
  • From time to time, I see messages pop up on the DVD when pausing or stopping. From what I've read, everyone involved in the process has to sign an NDA to not talk about it

    So what gives?

  • How big is a CD? (Score:3, Insightful)

    by line-bundle ( 235965 ) on Saturday May 25, 2002 @06:07AM (#3583552) Homepage Journal
    In the section concerning dataplay.com he says: This new, compact, one-inch optical disc is the digital storage medium of the future for pre-recorded or user-recorded data or tunes. Capacities for these once-recordable discs run up to 500Mb, holding more than 11 hours of high-quality MP3 files or over five hours of CD-quality music.

    I had thought that one hour of CD quality music is about 600Mb, so how does he get over five hours of CD-quality music?

    • At 5 hours/600mb, it sounds like he's talking ATRAC format audio as "CD quality", which it basically is, but it wouldn't make sense for Toshiba to use that Sony format. Sharp maybe, but not Toshiba.

      But that is a good question.

      Chris
    • 256kbps MP3 files which can have CD-styled quality...

    • Re:How big is a CD? (Score:2, Informative)

      by Cyberdyne ( 104305 )
      I had thought that one hour of CD quality music is about 600Mb, so how does he get over five hours of CD-quality music?

      One word: compression. Five hours in 500 Mb is 800 Mbits/hr, or just over 220 Kbit/sec. A well encoded MP3 at 320VBR averages less than that, and I can't tell the difference between that and the original CD.

      Even truly lossless (bit-for-bit reproduction) can be achieved with better than 2:1 compression, which would make 5 hours of CD music (just under 1.5 Mbit/sec bitrate) take 1.5 Gb, so reaching 6:1 shouldn't be a huge problem IMO.

    • Sony's minidiscs are 140MB, and store 75 Minutes of CD quality audio... I've heard people say they've heard occasional artifacts, but I've got a great ear, and listen to very complex music, and have yet to hear a single artifact, so I chock those reports up to the green marker hysteria until I hear it for myself...

      Not to mention Sony's SA-CD format stores a CD worth of audio, at much higher fidelity, on a regular CD...

      Well I did answer your question... Either of those technologies could be imployed in this case.
      • SA-CD does not use a regular CD. it's the same size, but it holds much more data, kind of like a DVD.
        • No, the reason it holds more information is that it uses a lower bit rate, with a higher sample frequency...

          You are correct that SA discs are (4 times) larger capacity than CDs, but that is only so that they can hold a 5.1 Channel layer, a stereo layer, and a legacy CD layer, on the same disc!

          The fact is that the disc is 4 times larger, while the sample rate is 64 times a standard CD!

          Don't get me wrong, it is very cool technology, but Sony decided to include a watermark, so I'll never be buying one.
          • Sony's SACD watermarks are better than DVD-Audio watermarks.

            SACD watermarks are in the physical pit grooves of the SACD. They are transparent to the user, i.e., even a perfect ear can not hear them.

            DVD-Audio watermarks the actual data, i.e., inserts watermarks into the music. The DVD-A people claim that most people can't hear the difference. But DVD-A is being marketed at audiophiles, which claim to hear what most people can't, and who appreciate hi-fidelity for its own sake. DVD-A is destined to be a failure in the audiophile market.

            - patiwat
            • I never even considered audio quality an issue. My concern with watermarking is purely the inability to make backups, rip them and play it on a PC, MiniDisc, or other portable (I never considered CDs portable).
  • You record your program on to the hard disk's 40 gigabytes and any programs you want to keep you burn to the DVD.

    Wow. Does he honestly think content providers will really let us do that?
    It's a nice thought, but I have my doubts.
    • From what I've been hearing, that's partialy true. You may either get a regular DVD, A copy once DVD, an uncopyable DVD, or a DVD CSS encoded to a unique key in that recorder, playable only on that machine. The details are still in the works.

      Too busy reading slashdot to research links and press.

  • Father??? (Score:1, Insightful)

    by Anonymous Coward
    Father? Like this is a big invention?

    B**locks. The technology was there for the next generation laser disks. "Father of DVD" is father of the standard that made it : encrypted, region coded, specialized for Video, made a deal with Hollywood for the new big thing that will boost the move sales.

    What an important person indeed!
    What a great inventor!
    Thanks to this man, mankind can enjoy "digital videos with the use of a laser disk on a computer that was designed for much more than just movie viewing"

    I vote the next nobel award to be given to the father of DVD.
    • DVD is what we use today. Laser disc never really was a competing product in most consumers eyes.

      Taken from http://www.starlaser.com/dvd-lasr.htm

      Laser Disc Disadvantages

      Laser Discs are too expensive for the average consumer to own. With the exception of MCA, and Warner, most Laser publishers have raised list prices to $40.00 and up for a first-run movie. Worse, many titles are only available as "special box-set editions" at prices over $100.00. To justify the price, these box sets often include CD soundtracks, posters, books, and other stuff you may not want.
      Laser Discs are large, heavy, and fragile. Great care must be taken in storage to prevent warpage, jacket damage, and deterioration of the disc's aluminum coating. With even the best of care, a few poorly manufactured discs will loose their aluminum reflective qualities over time, resulting in increased video noise. This problem is aggravated by many publishers who refuse to take defective discs once they have "gone out of print". Caught in the middle are the dealers (like us) who have angry customers on one side and suppliers refusing defective returns on the other.

      Laser Discs are "hard encoded" in NTSC video. Even though many LV players have S-video outputs, all laser discs, exhibit a characteristic "crosshatch" distortion caused by the NTSC color subcarrier. This is most noticeable in small text, where the letters seem to be "floating" amidst background of moving fine-grain diagonal mesh. Since all NTSC broadcasts have the same distortion, many Laser Disc owners don't notice the distortion until they compare it with component video or true S-video.

  • Origins of region coding (Score:2, Funny)

    by Anonymous Coward
    "When at midnight we finished, we must have been pretty drunk but I said: 'I will develop the system and you will give me the content, because without the content it is nothing'."
    When asked for the reasons behind the region encoding, Hase said:
    "I'm afraid I was very drunk at the time."
  • I'm not going to read that interview. In a few weeks they're just going to release the 2-disc special edition of it. I'm really looking forward to the behind-the-MPAA featurette and the director's commentary by Matt Preston and David Lynch.

    I'm really hoping for a new anamorphic transfer because the currently panned article I have to "scan" downwards to see the entire thing! That and where is the DTS?

  • ...which, with its built-in copy protection, is marketed as the solution to all these format wars: we all just go and adopt another new format (with the RIAA et al's blessing).
  • DVD is the bastard created when our beautiful innocent High Tech was brutally raped by the RIAA. The engineer who created it ought to be deeply ashamed of his actions as an accomplice in that rape.

    The copy protection and region encoding on DVD's have nothing to do with preventing commercial pirating and everything to do with controlling what the customer can do with the product that he bought. Claiming that copy protection has to do with piracy is a flat out lie. Commercial pirates are not inconvenienced in the least by copy protection - they make a bit for bit copy of the disk and stamp them out as fast as they want. Only you - the customer is affected in what you can do with your own property . According to the RIAA 'fair use' doesn't exist, and they won't be happy until the courts agree with them.
    • DVD - Video (primarily)


      RIAA - Audio.


      The RIAA had nothing to do with developing tthe DVD format.


      /. just cotinues to go down the tubes.

  • Everyone likes to throw their hat in the ring saying either which format is the format of the future, or why nothing out there makes the cut, and their up-and-comming format will.

    I'll settle this all right now and tell you what the freaking format of the future is... It's a damn hard drive in a USB2/FireWire case. If only I could find a combined FireWire/USB2 case for a Hard Drive so I could use a decent interface on my own machine, and USB on other machines.

    Just think about it, if someone would just make a USB2 case that you stick a notebook hard drive in, it gets it's power from the interface rather than require a seperate power cord, and it will work in every system out there, who would want anything more?

    Smaller than CDs, rewritable without any extra software, you don't erase the damn thing to change one line in a text file, huge capacity, cheap, and bootable in newer systems.

    Anyone A) Know of any cases (2.5" HD cases or USB/FireWire combined cases) and B) Have any problem with that cheap, universal system, which doesn't have copy protection and beats out all others?
    • http://www.firewiremax.com/usbfir13come.html

      Not that I've tried it....but took all of 30 seconds on Google to find one....
      • 30 seconds on Google

        That's usually my line! I guess if I'd actually been interested I'd have found it too... The price certainly isn't very attractive.

        Thanks for the site in any case... I also found the 2.5" USB powered case (which also supports firewire) and strangely enough can be powered by the PS/2 port? The single drawback is that it only supports USB 1.1, not 2.0... Guess I'll have to look a little bit more.
  • DVD is the solution to the content industries problems. Instead of forcing copy protection on every format, all content should be released on DVD, which is secure and built from the ground up to prevent copying. No wait...

    Usurper_ii

    -=-=-=-

    Success is the journey...
    not the destination

  • Flash or HTML (Score:4, Insightful)

    by captaineo ( 87164 ) on Saturday May 25, 2002 @10:26AM (#3584005)
    The one thing I wish were done a little differently with DVD (from the perspective of one who occasionally needs to author them) is the menu system. Instead of DVD's convoluted, proprietary menu implementation, I'd really prefer to see something like Flash or even dynamic HTML with Javascript. Imagine what DVD creators could do if they knew every DVD player had a Flash interpreter... (acknowledging of course that Flash was in a much more primitive state back when DVDs were being developed, if it even existed at the time :])
    • Wait, you're objecting to the DVD menu system because it's proprietary, yet you think Flash would've been a better choice? I could see the DHTML/JS combo, but Flash?

      • Re:Flash or HTML (Score:3, Interesting)

        by captaineo ( 87164 )
        I don't particularly care about proprietary as in "controlled by one company," but I do dislike proprietary as in "different from standard practice for no good reason." I think it was unfortunate that the inventors of DVD went off and created their own half-baked UI system when better alternatives were in already in use. (yeah, that's about par for the course for most consumer electronics standards... =)

        Nor do I really like how most DVD releases use the menu UI system. I hate wading through un-stoppable movie menus to get where I want to go. I really wish DVD had the feature of laserdisc where you could just punch in "take me to frame #18275" and it would jump there immediately.

        (BTW I believe the specs for the Flash .swf file format are freely available, although I am not aware of any complete Free Software implementation.)
        • The reason they don't have that feature, is they want to force you to sit through all of the Copyright info, and watch all of their trailers. As a father with a one year old who loves snow white, I can tell you that 3 minutes of FF'ding through DVD Garbage annoys me.

          (That's why I rip 'em to VCD...)

          Jason
    • I'd really prefer to see something like ... dynamic HTML with Javascript


      Check out products incorporating the NUON [nuon-dome.com] processor (formerly from VM Labs [vmlabs.com], recently bought out by Genesis Microchip [genesis-microchip.com]), such as the Toshiba [toshiba.com] SD-2300 [dvdreview.com] and Samsung [samsung.com] N-2000 [dvdreview.com], N-501, and N-504. NUON-enhanced DVDs contain additional info in the form of (tada!) HTML and Bob scripts - the DVDs play normally on regular players, the enhanced features are available on products like those above.


      There are some NUON-enhanced DVDs available. You can also play games on these units, although it is by no means intended as a PS2/XBox/etc competitor. You can even download the NUON SDK and hack your own NUON programs! Check out the NUON dome [nuon-dome.com] for more info.


      Disclaimer: I used to work for VM Labs. I don't anymore (left in September 2001), and have no business or financial connection with either VM Labs or Genesis Microchip. I still think the technology is pretty cool, though.

  • What we really need is an *uncompressed* video format.

    That said, DVDs look pretty good. I do wish that they would've made the standard for the format a disc in a cartridge, though. I HATE having to deal with bare discs that can get scratched easily.

    • I do wish that they would've made the standard for the format a disc in a cartridge, though. I HATE having to deal with bare discs that can get scratched easily.

      When MPAA decided they wanted DVDs to be super-cheap to manufacture, they set the stage for it being a low-use distribution media rather than a many-use playback media. (This was predictable in advance, as audio CDs had been in use for many years, and almost everyone has at least one sad scratch story to tell.) The best way to deal with the fragile distribution media problem, is to only expose/read the media once. After that, play the content from your file server. This is one of the many reasons that DVD purchasers need to have things like DeCSS.

      That's how I solved the scratched-CD problem (most of the CDs I've bought in the last couple of years have only been read once), and as hard disk capacities continue to increase, that's how I'll solve the scratched-DVD problem too.

  • Prediciton that DataPlay will be a lasting format. (Score:3, Insightful)

    by SuperKendall ( 25149 ) on Saturday May 25, 2002 @11:00AM (#3584078)
    In the article he states near the end that he sees DataPlay becoming a widespread technology (note to others - that does not mean he nessicarily supports the format, just that he sess a future for it).

    I don't with that prediciton though - for MP3 use, I'm pretty sure small HD's will remain on top. The 10 GB iPod is about the size any DataPlay player would be, and holds a lot more... plus as the tech gets better and better, the iPod advances in capacity much faster than DataPlay. He said in the interview that HD + RAM will take over for home video use, I'm not sure why he doesn't follow the same line of reasoning for audio players (or just about anything else!).

    As for the other possibly use of DataPlay, cameras - I can possibly see this as the cost of a DataPlay disc (about $20) is a lot cheaper than CompactFlash... but the question is will DataPlay be used in devices much before ~500Mb compactFlash cards come down near to the price of a DataPlay disc? Furthermore, I see 500mb as being way too small to be meaningful in the future digital camera market, as resoultion and color depth improves the storage needs will grow quite a bit. Here again, I have to wonder if a HD solution will not win in the end - either an HD embedded in the camera, or seperate bluetooth enabled HD packs that you wear somewhere and that the camera transmits pictures to.

    In the end, I have to think that while he might have been good at bringing a particular technology to the market, he doesn't seem like a true visionary - most of his predicitons listed in the article seem pretty simplistic to me.
    • Plus all of our legacy CD-RW drives should make adopting a new proprietary format with less capacity seem ludicrous.

      They've been hyping DataPlay for years now, even prior to the widespread use of CD-R's. I remember a spokesman for the company talking about how DataPlay discs could be sold for 50-75 cents each. (Yes, cents) At the time this was cheaper that CD-R media.

      I'm not sure that the numbers quoted in that article are correct. It may be cheaper than compact flash for $20, but that's a bunch of money for write-once media.

      Stick with the cheap storage medium, human brain. There's alot of it out there, and hardly anyone uses theirs.

      Jason

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