Slate Predicts The End Of TiVo 696
wiredog writes "Slate has an article about why TiVo (the company, not the idea) is destined to fail. It suffers from the same first mover disadvantage that did in the Newton and the Amiga."
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Slate Predicts The End Of TiVo
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You know you've landed gear-up when it takes full power to taxi.
XBox? (Score:3, Interesting)
Whatever... I'll still buy a TiVo once I can afford it. And sit it down next to that Amiga500 I've always wanted to get.
Re:XBox? (Score:5, Insightful)
Of course, I don't watch a lot of TV (more of a movie guy), and when I usually do it's usually the history channel or the learning channel. I guess it just isn't important enough in my case to make the jump from progrogrammable VCR to Tivo.
up front (Score:5, Informative)
It's a lot up front, and I think they offer monthly for the sake of people who would rather buy a $400 box than a $650 one.
But as a happy TiVo subscriber, let me tell you this:
I would play twice the current $13/month for the TiVo service. It really is worth it!
Re:up front (Score:3, Informative)
Note that this is for the lifetime of the equipment and not your lifetime...their disclaimer [tivo.com]
Me Too (Score:3, Informative)
Me Three (Score:5, Insightful)
With TiVo, TV is no longer a time-oriented medium. You don't watch shows when they're on, you watch them when you want to. The only way time matters is that a new show is only available on or after a certain time. It's more like a webcast, or a magazine-type site like The Onion. You're not required to sit there in front of your computer at 6 AM Monday every week to watch the new update of The Onion. You can watch it any time you want, it's just that you know a new one is available on a regular basis. All of TV is that way once you have TiVo.
Of course TiVo isn't the only way to get this. You can use Replay, or Microsoft's new box, or with a lot more effort you can set up a computer to do it. Any of these will give you those improvements.
But whatever you do, don't make the mistake of thinking it's a VCR. It's not, it's a device that turns TV into something that's more like a subset of the web, in that you have instant access to many, many hours of content, whatever has been updated since you viewed it last.
Re:And? I think Slate has got it right... (Score:4, Insightful)
See also Telephone, Television, Electricity... Just because a product is first to market (or in this case, defining a market) does not mean it is doomed to failure. If you look at the companies that have invested in Tivo, you see that they'll survive (even if that means they are simply acquired). They have a best-of-breed product, a regonizable brand, and the market that they have defined is set to explode.
You've heard the song... 500 channels and there's nothing on.
Really, the problem isn't that there isn't anything on. The problem is that there's so much on, that it becomes increasingly impossible to filter the noise, and find that which is truly appealing to you, the viewer.
Tivo makes this possible. You don't tell it what time you want to record something. You tell it what show to record, regardless of when it is on. You tell it what genres you like, what actors you prefer, what directors meet your expectations. It does the rest.
You can not appreciate how this device will transform your relationship with television. It makes television useful, and entertaining, and it does this by catering to you, as an individual, rather than by allowing a television network to pour some target demographics into the plot generation device so that the program hits all of the right population segments.
I'm no longer "White males, 25 - 35, with a household income between X and Y."
Since I got Tivo, now I'm just me, and I watch the shows that appeal to me, and I watch them when my schedule allows me to.
Re:Me Too (Score:3, Interesting)
But my wife certainly does. She is about to get her own dedicated Tivo, just so she can start recording all of her "Trading Spaces," "Ground Force," "Changing Rooms" home redecorationg shows. It'll be a hard-drive full of estrogen in no time.
She's "just a chick," but she can't go back to watching TV the old way.
Re:up front (Score:3, Funny)
Don't worry; you will.
Re:up front (Score:5, Informative)
Re:up front (Score:3, Informative)
Re:up front (Score:5, Insightful)
The only downside to having one is that you completely lose track of when stuff is on. Makes it a little hard to participate in the watercooler discussions about certain shows. Not a big deal, but it does happen.
I personally really enjoy sitting down and watch 2 or 3 episodes of the same show in a row. Plus, pausing live TV is about the most useful feature for the parent of a small child that I could imagine.
Anyway, buy one, you won't regret it.
No, I don't work for TIVO or ReplayTV or any other company along those lines.
Re:up front (Score:5, Funny)
Re:up front (Score:5, Funny)
You're talking to people reading slashdot comments.
Re:up front (Score:3, Informative)
Re:up front (Score:5, Informative)
The subscription moves with the unit, not with you. If you buy a TiVo, get a lifetime sub on it, and sell it then you sell the subscription with it. Of course, TiVo's with lifetime subs sell for about $250 more than one without, so currently there's no money lost.
The obvious downside is that you can't transfer to a different kind of TiVo. If you have cable now, buy a regular TiVo, and then later get DirecTV you can't transfer the subscription to a new DirecTiVo. Or if they come out with a HDTiVo in the future (no, they haven't even speculated on doing such) then you're still stuck with the old one.
I don't know that this is a hard and fast rule though. There are a few select TiVo subscribers that fell into a grandfather clause where they can transfer their subscription once. They bought lifetime subs prior to the wording being more clear on the matter.
As far as worrying about the TiVo unit failing -- I haven't heard much hue and cry about faulty machines. The modem in them sucks and dies to even a vague hint of lightning (one of mine has died twice, both times requiring $99 to fix), but there are 3rd parties that will repair them now and a surge protector helps a great deal. The hard drives are replaceable. The fan is the only other moving part, and theoretically replaceable.
Re:up front (Score:3, Informative)
For series 2 boxes you can plug in a USB ethernet adapter to one of the USB 1.1 ports.
In either case you'll need a firewall, NAT, and something that provides DHCP services (which virtually all Cable/DSL routers do).
Re:PAY for Tivo?!!!!!! (Score:3, Informative)
My family hasn't watched live TV since we got the TiVo. I don't even know what channels some of my shows are on. I just pull up a list of the shows TiVo has recorded and watch what I want. We watch TV when WE want to. If I want to kill some time, I see what TiVo has for me. I can pick-and-choose between shows I like, not whatever happens to be on.
It's really a change in viewing habits that you don't appreciate it until you've tried it. I think the best marketing strategy TiVo could ever try would be to give out TiVos free for a month or two and see how many people buy it instead of giving it back.
P.S. TiVo doesn't skip commercials, that's ReplayTV.
Re:PAY for Tivo?!!!!!! (Score:4, Informative)
"Select" "Play" "Select" "3" "0" "Select"
You'll hear three "Tivo Tones" letting you know that the command has been accepted. You can disable the feature by entering the same sequence.
Re:XBox? (Score:5, Informative)
Re:XBox? (Score:5, Interesting)
I'm with you there. Unfortunately, that business model is spreading. I won't pay a recurring fee for an OS, I won't pay a monthly fee for a MMORPG (no matter how cool), and I refuse to pay for XM or Sirius when I can get radio for free.
So why should I buy a subscription based VCR? So far, I have not seen 1 thing that the TiVo will do that you cannot do with a VCR for less, not to mention a good computer with the right software.
I think TiVo would become more universal if they dropped the subscription fee, or at least allowed the device good functionality without it.
Just my $0.02
Re:XBox? (Score:5, Informative)
Try pausing a live television show so you can go take a shit. Then fast-forward through the commercials when you get back until you're caught up with the live signal. Seamlessly.
Try asking your VCR what episodes of South Park are on in the next two weeks. And ask it for a brief summary of the episodes, too.
Tell your VCR to record every episode of 50 different shows - indefinitely. Oh, and tell it to account for time changes and scheduling changes by itself.
Ask your VCR what shows it thinks you would enjoy based on your previous viewing habits.
There's a lot more to TiVo/ReplayTV than being a glorified VCR. Trust me.
Re:XBox? (Score:3, Informative)
Re:XBox? (Score:3, Insightful)
One point I would agree with you on is that the rewind/slo-mo/pause features should work whether or not you subscribe to the service, but it's kinda hard to justify paying $300 for a Tivo when you could just wait for commercial breaks...the Season Pass and other services that Tivo provides are its killer app.
I personally would love to buy a Tivo, but my problem is that I'm poor and can't afford the up-front hardware costs...yet.
Re:XBox? (14 reasons why TIVO is NOT just a VCR) (Score:4, Informative)
No offense, but you have no idea what you're talking about. TiVo completely changes the way you watch TV. It's a lot like having your own television station that has all of your favorite shows available on demand. A few of the cool things about TiVo
Actually that's due to their awful marketing more than the actual usefulness of their product. Of the 5 people that I know who have TiVo, not a single one bought it because of TiVo's marketing. One bought it purely on a whim while looking for something to blow $300 on at BestBuy. The others bought it on direct and indirect word-of-mouth from the first one. The TiVo ads don't communicate all the cool things it can do. All I remembered from their earlier ads was "Pause live TV!" which I don't really give a crap about. (I have found it useful now and then but it's more of a nice bonus than a compelling feature).
Not affiliated with TiVo - just a very satisfied user,
Brien Voorhees
Re:XBox? (Score:3, Interesting)
What would happen if I started a free tv listings service offered in XML over usenet? ISP's offer dialup Net access for $10/month, so they could offer restricted access dialup access to alt.tvlistings.* for much less.
If I could convince a small number of producers and consumers to use the service, then wouldn't it snowball to the point where a producer would be stupid to *not* list their programs?
Tvguide.com offers listings in html. Their business model seems to be online ads. Couldn't they offer the grid in xml with ads embeded in the "program description" page?
From what i see on sourceforge, it seems like the situation is better in Europe. Is that true? Any suggestions for fixing this prob in the U.S.?
Re:XBox? (Score:3, Insightful)
The only thing that keeps my from buying a TiVo is the total loss of life that TV-watching is. I think /. is a much better way to spend an evening.
ReplayTV converted me (Score:3, Informative)
If you watch dramas without commercials, it is often similar to watching movies. I upgraded my Panasonic Showstopper's (rebranded ReplayTV) harddrive to 120GB, so I have 120 hours. 120 hours is rediculous, but its 40 hours at high quality. With 40 hours, I can grab for 6 hours of programming that I want each week, another 4 hours of garbage that I watch occaisionally (I have some cartoons that I occaisionally watch), and 20+ hours of movies being recorded.
With DirecTV, I have 12 Starz channels, plus another 18 or so movie channels. I have the box grabbing me 4 star movies, etc.
It's great, as there is always something to watch.
Before my ReplayTV, I would never catch prime time shows, but when I would get home late I would watch garbage while vegging. Now, when I come in and want to unwind, I have something good to watch.
It's really nice to be able to fire up the ReplayTV for a little programming.
I recently adding an HDTV STB, that's a weird change. Now there are a bunch of shows that I watch live, commercials and all, to enjoy them in HDTV goodness. However, its only a few shows, and if I get home late, the ReplayTV has them waitting for me.
At some point I will probably go and explore some of the programming on the history or discover channels (I have like 6 of them), but it won't be live.
Getting the hard drive update was key. In the past, I would go through the channels once a month to grab movies. Now they are just waitting for me.
If I had a Tivo, it would be even better (I got the ReplayTV as a graduation gift), as the Thumbs Up/Thumbs Down would probably get me more targetted stuff to watch.
Time is my most critical commodity. I don't want to plan around a movie time, or returning videos. As a result, I buy DVDs to have stuff to watch, and have a ReplayTV. As a result, when I want entertainment, its just waitting for me, which is really nice.
Alex
Right. First mover DISadvantage? Tell it to IBM! (Score:5, Insightful)
Which explains the pile of baloney very nicely.
First mover DISadvantage? Never heard of THAT before. But I bet we'll hear it a lot from now on - as Microsoft (and other established companies) promote the meme, especially with venture capitalists.
Spread that around enough and it starves upstarts of funding - especially those with competitive tech breakthroughs that might break MS's strangleholde. Then absorb 'em, or clone their tech, suck out their market, and dare them to sue.
As for Amiga - IMO that died strictly because Commodore failed to promote it. Remember those flashy Amiga ads? (Right - WHAT Amiga ads?) Remember all that followon support? Upgrades? Add-ons? Alliances with software and hardware makers? (Ditto.)
There are a lot of ways for a company to fail, and a startup only has to find one of 'em. A biggie is counting on the quality of the product to sell it in competition with something that is worse-but-adequate for the perceived need, while being cheaper, better-promoted, or with tie-ins. (Commodore, Apple, Betamax,
There IS a STARTUP disadvantage: no infrastructure, no established cash-cow to milk while developing the next generation, no reputation for success, unseasoned management with little and/or WRONG knowlege on how to run a company. But that's not a first-mover DISadvantage. (Startup/established and first-mover/follower are not correlated.) It's just that sometimes a startup disadvantage is enough to overwhelm the actual first-mover ADvantage and kill the first try at commercializing new tech.
Re:Right. First mover DISadvantage? Tell it to IBM (Score:5, Insightful)
Maybe it is because you are a moron? You list out some things you commonly use and we will see if the company you associate with those things were invented it or even first marketed it.
You miss my point.
I wasn't saying that second-movers hadn't blown first-movers out of the water in the past - repeatedly.
I was saying that the phrase "First mover disadvantage" appears to me to be a new - and bogus - coinage.
There IS a related phrase - "Second mover advantage". This relates to the second mover being able to see what the first mover did wrong, then bring their product to market with that stuff fixed. The second mover doesn't have to take a chance on whether there's a market, while the first mover is hit with a double-whammy: simultaneously going from sole-provider to one-of-two competitors, and having the unfixed product.
But at this point the first mover is an established brand. If he was READY for the competitor - like with a new model that is ALSO fixed and a financial plan that can handle some competition - he's still in a much better position market-wise and will hold a lead indefinitely - or until something else (like his own incompetence) breaks him.
So "Second mover advantage" is a misnomer and "First mover disadvantage" remains an illusion - but a very poisonous meme.
Also for the record... (Score:4, Insightful)
Thanks.
Also for the record - I was doing a search on a completely unrelated subject in the hours since I posted those last and ran across "first mover advantage" being used a year or so ago. (Wouldn't have thought twice about it if it weren't for this discussion.)
There are good and bad things about being first mover. There are good and bad things about being second mover. There are good and bad things about being Nth mover where N gt 2. But IMHO the farther down that sequence you go the less good stuff and more bad stuff you get. B-)
As for B-Schools (especially the H B-school), the main thing they teach is techniques for high executives to drain as much of the company's blood into their pockets during their tenure, while making it LOOK like THEY are making the company successful and the NEXT GUY is the one who crashed it. (The late bubble-pop has put the limelight exposed several poster children for this effect.)
Word of advice: If you ever see a manager reading, or hear him talking about, _Crossing the Chasm_, cash your options and run like hell - or if you're in a position of power, fire him on the spot. The main thesis of THAT book is buried in a couple paragraphs near the end: That the early-hires are not entitled to the fruits of the company's success, and should be shafted as the company "transitions" for "the long haul". For hi-tek companies that means amputating your brains and chopping off your future product development. Death for the company in a couple years, when you need to advance the cutting edge to stay in the Red Queen's Race.
Of course by that time the execs have pocketed the money that should have gone to the early-hires and handed the company off to the next generation of B-school grads - who liquidate it, pocket the remaining assets, and leave the investors with another bankrupt shell.
I'll buy that (or rather, wouldn't) (Score:5, Informative)
Re:I'll buy that (or rather, wouldn't) (Score:2, Informative)
Besides, the next version of the integrated DirecTV/TiVo due out in the next week or so will sell for $199 for new subscribers.
Re:I'll buy that (or rather, wouldn't) (Score:5, Informative)
Best money I never spent. TiVo has changed my life.
Re:I'll buy that (or rather, wouldn't) (Score:2)
UTV, like the XBOX, will gain some market share, but isnt going to drive out all the competition. They cant (or at least haven't as far as I know) tie it to their desktop monopoly, so they have to compete with everyone else.
siri
Re:I'll buy that (or rather, wouldn't) (Score:4, Informative)
That's strange... because when I bought my directv setup w/integrated TiVo receiver back in february, I only payed $150 for the entire setup. And that was for a TiVo receiver, dish, extra (non-tivo) receiver for the bedroom, splitter box (needed for 2+ receivers, and since the tivo uses 2 technically i have 3), and home install kit.
When I purchased this unit, I priced out the same sort of thing with UltimateTV, because I was curious to see which would be more affordable. I believe @ the time the UTV unit was more expensive, but I don't remember how much. Couple that w/the fact that it was owned by MS, and the TiVo community is _much_ more developed, and the choice was pretty easy for me. Besides that, TiVo is a _lot_ more tolerant of "tampering" with the units than I would believe MS would be. TiVo doesn't "officially" sanction the modifications, but unnofficially they don't seem to mind. I believe even a few employees of TiVo contribute to the TiVo community forums...
So anyway, they have good deals on the TiVo units too, and I don't think DirecTV is going to go away from them too soon, since they just re-branded the units as DirecTV DVR powered by TiVo or some such crap (basically a TiVo with DirecTV branding.)
Of course, I must also point out that my tivo unit is still out for repair for the 2nd time since I've had it.... So if you do buy a directv / TiVo combo, don't buy a hughes
TiVO was not more expensive than UltimateTV (Score:3, Interesting)
I ordered my DirecTiVO from American Satellite. Complete kits were the exact same price as UltimateTV. In fact, I originally had UltimateTV, but when it crashed in the second week of operation and lost all recorded shows in the process, I swapped it for a DirecTiVO.
PVRs have to run stably 24x7, and no Microsoft-based product I have ever owned or used has been able to do that.
Re:Source? (Score:4, Interesting)
So I think it's safe to assume that if you have an UltimateTV that you won't be getting new features, enhancements, or bugfixes. Enjoy!
Loyalty counts too (Score:4, Insightful)
Re:Loyalty counts too (Score:3, Funny)
"Aww, look, the TiVo is recording something again. I wonder what it found..." (usually yet another Law & Order episode, but...)
"Hey, look what the Tivo recorded over the weekend! I never would've thought of that!"
" Good TiVo! thanks for finding the schedule change for my favorite program and automatically recording it for me! If I had relied on your older brother the VCR to record the show at its normal time I would've been really bummed out..."
Re:Loyalty counts too (Score:3, Funny)
Re:Loyalty counts too (Score:3, Informative)
that aside, the article needs some updating: tivo recently sold more shares, raising another $25 million in cash. their CEO claims that they will be profitable by early next year. (which, given the amount of cash on hand, they need to be). they aren't stupid. they realize that making widgets of their own that don't integrate well into the things the bulk of comsumers understand won't scale.
the directv-tivo (directivo) integration is a perfect example of where they need to go to succeed. it is a truely excellent box by being your tuner with an additional pause, ff/rw, and record buttons and all of the real tivo features (season passes!).
[yes, for better or worse I own some TIVO stock]
I doubt it. (Score:5, Insightful)
TiVo is to DVR like Kleenex is to "facial tissue"
Re:I doubt it. (Score:3, Interesting)
Of course, I think the real future is to build TiVo-like capabilities inside the actual device. For instance, a TV you buy in 2 years may have a hard drive in it. Or maybe the next PlayStation. Or DVD player, etc. Hard drives are so damn cheap, they can almost give them away, and charge for the monthly service. As usual, it is a constant effort to incorporate more and more (what are now) 3rd party features into your device.
Re:I doubt it. (Score:3, Informative)
The parent was comparing a brand ("Kleenex") of product to the product in general (tissues).
You compared users of a brand ("Tivo") of a product (DVRs) to the users of another product (televisions) that defines a superset of the original comparison's market base.
That would be similar to saying that Kleenex is not well known because most people who use a paper product of any sort usually are not using a Kleenex.
The parent was correct
Yeah, they will fail (Score:2, Funny)
Re:Yeah, they will fail (Score:2)
Re:Yeah, they will fail (Score:5, Informative)
ROFL (Score:2, Funny)
Tivo is dead! What's next? Broadband? Linux! Say it ain't so Billy!
I suspect the cable companies will kill Tivo (Score:3, Interesting)
It doesn't matter for me, though, I have my VCR programmed to record Mother Angelica every day.
The unanswered question: (Score:2, Redundant)
TiVo has name recognition (Score:4, Insightful)
Too Complicated? (Score:5, Interesting)
I suspect that those same families still have their clocks flashing 12:00AM and do little more than read email on their P4 2GHz computers.
You're always going to have people who simply aren't going to make use of technology due to phobia.
However, the opposite side to their figures is that 70% of the people given TiVos ARE using it.
And I honestly can say that once you teach someone initially how to navigate through the menus, having the TiVo automatically catch your favorite shows whenever they're on, despite most schedule changes, is far easier than the hassles of putting in new tapes all the time and manually programming a change in a particular week's showtime.
Re:Too Complicated? (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:Too Complicated? (Score:5, Funny)
Well, my VCR keeps flashing 12:00, but that's because I have no reason to set it anymore, since I've got a TiVo
m.
When I bought my Tivo 2.5 years ago.. (Score:5, Informative)
Well, over two years later and I'm still loving my Tivo. I use it more than any other AV component I own and I couldn't imagine not having it.
The devotee will even use TiVo as a verb
You can't buy that kinda of brand name recognition. ie q-tip, xerox
And compared with a VCR or DVD player, a TiVo is difficult to set up and maintain
Difficult to setup is accurate, but I'm not sure what is hard to maintain. All you have to do is watch TV shows and click on delete if you don't like them. Hit Thumbs up to stuff you like and thumbs down to stuff you don't. Not generalizing women, but my wife, who isn't that computer saavy has already learned how to bump her Season Passes over mine. I don't think it's difficult at all.
If TiVo does fall by the wayside, it will leave behind a throng of adoring fans
*sniff*
Re:When I bought my Tivo 2.5 years ago.. (Score:5, Funny)
I hope mine never figures that out, or I'll never get to watch Enterprise - I'll be punished with a TiVo full of Ed, Friends, and Anna Nicole. The horror!
Commodore / Amiga not a valid comparison (Score:5, Interesting)
Re:Commodore / Amiga not a valid comparison (Score:4, Informative)
Giving the impression that Comodore had some grand vision is taking credit away from the true visionaries at Amiga. Also, they didn't design it to be a video editing machine. That was the contribution of a third party company, and came much later.
Nice to see how well researched Slate articles are.
Amiga Vs Tivio (Score:2)
I can honestly say that I never looked back, I won't buy an X-Box or PS2 because, I have a PC. I won't be buying a Tivio, I'd rather by equivilent hardware and put it into my PC.
I use my PC to play DVD's, Music, Watch TV, Play games (though not so much now adays) unless someone comes up with a serious contender to the PC that's what I'm sticking with.
DirecTV/TiVo (Score:5, Informative)
Also to get a cheap DirecTV/TiVo unit, hit www.americansatellite.com and if you are a new subscriber they have the Phillips unit for $150. I bought mine about 7 months ago at $99. This included the unit, the dish and two installation kits.
Re:DirecTV/TiVo (Score:5, Informative)
Yes, this is true. DirecTV is going to be handling all of the billing for the combo DirecTiVo boxes, and the graphical changes you mention will basically remove the TiVo name and logo from the menus. The good news is that DirecTV will be charging less for the TiVo service now, $4.99/month as opposed to $9.99/month. DirecTV has essentially licensed the TiVo software and service, which is how TiVo hopes to make money from here on and has been their plan on how to do business once they had a somewhat established base market.
There are many posts above saying that TiVo will die because cable companies, etc. will offer their own product. TiVo's hope is that the cable companies will license the TiVo software and service for their set-top boxes.
Re:DirecTV/TiVo (Score:3, Informative)
Umm sure. (Score:2)
"Tivo is doomed for failure! And remember, when it dies, you won't be able to use it anymore."
"Hmmm, then, " says thoughtful consumer, "I had better put off that Tivo purchase then."
"NEW FROM MICROSOFT: The X-Home Media Workstation, with PVR and X-Box compatibility!"
"Wow! Microsoft, eh? Why, sign me up!"
A few points I'd argue with... (Score:4, Insightful)
Okay, I agree a bit in that the TiVo is difficult to extoll the virtues of (in a small number of words), perhaps in the same way as an Amiga. We (consumers) don't have the vocabulary to describe what TiVo does, and that really really has hurt TiVo. Most people just don't get their mind completely wrapped around the product. "Oh. That's the thing that pauses live TV?" "Yeah. Isn't that some kind of television set?"
Perhaps TiVo is more Jack Tramiel than Commodore/Amiga. Jack though that word-of-mouth would carry him through. So much for the Atari home computer division! TiVo needs to educate people on its product.
About the difficult of install? I'd think the learning curve for America Online would be as difficult as a TiVo. But that's its greatest blessing and its greatest bane. It is a very different device.
Probably the best into line I can say when describing a TiVo is the effect: "It completely changes the way you view television at home, and for the better."
Really, in reading this article, I really don't see how they go about providing their title, that it is destined for the trash heap of history. While that might be true, they don't get into any real fact. Just neat stories.
TiVo Hacking would experience a renessance (Score:2, Insightful)
Re:TiVo Hacking would experience a renessance (Score:3, Funny)
Welcome to capitalism my friend.
Bad comparisons - Amiga? (Score:3, Interesting)
With TiVo, we're talking about a VERY simple concept. To the end user, all it does is record and play back (and all that other good stuff). It's not something you have to go out and buy software for, and hope that the latest and greatest Laser printer will work for it.
Comparing TiVo to (un)successful computer platforms is like apples to oranges.
Also, I didn't really understand this part:
Joe Six-Pack, however, was stumped. VCRs and video-game machines had just recently made a splash in the mass market.
Umm... "Recently" as in "8 years before?" (The Amiga 1000 came out in 1985 [emugaming.com]. The Atari VCS (aka 2600) came out in 1977.)
This, too:
he Amiga, which featured such revolutionary perks as a full-color screen (a big plus in the age of green-and-black Apple IIc monitors) and stereo sound.
Let's see - we what else had full-color screens? Atari 400/800 (1979), Commodore 64 (1982), and hey! Apple II! (You just needed the right monitor, I believe.)
Apple II's [apple2history.org] came out in 1977 and was still in production through 1993.
I can nitpick further, but I actually have something productive to do... somewhere... (checking pockets) No, not there...
Lame.. (Score:4, Insightful)
The examples they give would be the same for any PVR, not just TiVo, this includes ReplayTV and XBox2. And a TiVo is really not that hard to use. My mom that has a hard time with email can use my TiVo with no problem. They'll be more scared of a DVD-R because they won't want to waste a blank DVD (yes, even if it's rewritable).
GameBoy, We Hardly Knew Ye (Score:5, Funny)
Oh wait!
I'll believe it (Score:4, Funny)
Which will last longer? (Score:3, Interesting)
One critical flaw ... (Score:5, Insightful)
Only, TiVo wasn't the first mover. Panasonic was with the Showstopper
Some of the other tidbits are accurate, such as TiVo's difficulty in explaining what a "PVR" is, but that would be true of ANY device in the market. However, they really aren't trying to compare it to a VCR. The ads have always touted features VCRs just don't have, like the "Trick Play" features that come with having a Live TV "buffer".
There's also one other thing that they neglect to mention (probably because it didn't fit in the author's view), when they mention that other machines will have DVR capabilities too.
TiVo SERVICE is what makes the PVR so popular with TiVo customers. The hardware is all fine and dandy, but it's that software that is easy to use, and the features in it that make it special. TiVo's "Season Passes" can follow programs around when they switch time slots on the same channel. No other competitior can do that, and it's a godsend!
Regardless, TiVo is doing a lot of things right. They MAY go under, but it won't be for any other reason than the mass market just not being ready for it yet.
Number One Reason (Score:3, Interesting)
I know a lot of people who have been interested in it, but can't justify the price. I myself would really enjoy one because my work schedule makes it very difficult for me to catch shows. However, I don't like being forced to buy into a bunch of other stuff just to buy the product, and for what it does, I can't justify the price in my mind.
It's really just an example of consumer preference dictating the market... clearly the product is not placed in a position where the public needs it.
Re:Number One Reason (Score:3, Funny)
But HER number one reason is price.
Re:Number One Reason (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:Number One Reason (Score:3, Funny)
Disclaimer: I'm not married, but my girlfriend was living with me for over a year in which I had a Tivo in my living room.
Joe sixpack still has no idea what a TiVo is (Score:4, Insightful)
* Can't afford it
* Don't know what it is
* Don't watch TV.
I believe the second group is by far the largest. To support TiVo, educate everybody you know about it. Hey, it's Linux based, it's really cool, and they actually perform - GASP, SHOCK! - usability testing.
Re:Joe sixpack still has no idea what a TiVo is (Score:3, Funny)
People who don't have a TiVo belong to at least one of these 3 groups:
* Can't afford it
* Don't know what it is
* Don't watch TV.
* Live in Canada.
Untapped Potential (Score:4, Insightful)
Doncha just hate to see good sound products have to struggle slowly up the market acceptance curve while various cruddy products get to be a lot more ubiquitous than they deserve? I do.
I own 2 TiVo's that I've upgraded so combined they hold about one third of terabyte of disk space. I love `em. My wife loves `em. I didn't mind shelling out the $500 for 2 lifetime subscriptions. I find the interface simple and intuitive. There are only minor inconveniences, like the plus and minus few minute automatic buffers on the ends of shows colliding in an non-intelligent way when shows on the same channel and type (eg, marathon sessions of back to back episodes).
I think you find astounding satisfaction with TiVo's from their owners.
At the same time, people outside the geek community are generally unaware of the entire concept of digital PVR and have never heard of a TiVo.
Word of mouth advertising is precious, but slow. It will be really interesting to see if TiVo gets enough growth in its customer base to bring it into profitability or (more likely) to where it gets bought out by some M&A hungry firm and the techy founders can retire wealthy and stop worrying about important but boring business issues. They desperately lack a big general advertising push. OTOH, one of the big selling points, speeding through commercials at 20x or 60x seems like it might raise a few eyebrows in the same advertising community!
I'm curious if TiVo's growth rate is increasing, whether there is any acceleration in TiVo's market.
Thank you Microsoft (Score:5, Interesting)
It turns out that MS was pumping millions into Ultimate TV advertising, and enthused customers were flocking to Circuit City and Good Guys, only to be told that they'd have to also get a satellite dish and service, regardless of what they already had.
Seeing their frustration, salespeople show them the TiVo, which works with whatever service they already have. Every dollar spent by Microsoft generated more TiVo revenue than UTV revenue...
A lot of posts miss the point (Score:5, Interesting)
I bought a PVR card for a pc. It sucks, the software is no good. But the card was $50. There's no reason why the software couldn't be good -- it just isn't. There are 3rd party apps that tie into tv listings just like TiVo does.
TiVo is nice, and they make it work, but you pay an awful lot for the storage space. TiVo is vulnerable to pressure from the big media companies, too, in a way that other solutions won't be. And I have to say that it's very nice to be able to record to Divx files that can be saved or shared.
Great article (Score:4, Funny)
TiVo won't die -- but it should. (Score:4, Interesting)
So I bought an Ultimate TV. Since MSFT was shutting down the division, you could get them for $99 including the dish and installation.
Plus, with the UltimateTV, I can record 2 shows at once, in original quality(including Dolby Digital).
The reason I say it should die is their service policy. The failing modem is an extremely common problem with the units (just read any TiVo board), and they fail to recognize it.
TiVo has a far superior and faster interface. Their service releases give great new and timesaving features, and they listen to user feedback and do usability. If it weren't for their lousy service, I would be their biggest advocate.
Nice article, shallow on reality (Score:3, Insightful)
They have a good name associated in the public's mind with excellence. Anyone who owns a TiVo will tell you its great. They also have excellent customer relations; refusing to cave in to he MPAA's demands and standing up for their customer's right to skip commercials endeared them to their customers.
I don't see TiVo failing anytime soon. Yes, they haven't made a profit...yet. Being realistic, its only a matter of time before such devices begin to become common-place. They'll be sold with TV's standard and in computers. And as that starts to hapen, TiVo will be the one who's products will be used for it. Why TiVo as opposed to MS' products? Because TiVo has a name associated with excellence, and a good reputation.
There is no such thing as first-comers disadvantage. Quite the opposite, there's a finder's reward for the company that comes up with an innovative and original idea or product. Eidos sold 30-million copies of Tomb Raider games (from their introduction till today) off of such a finder's reward, because no one else had a product which even compared.
There is, however, such a thing as a startup disadvantage, because you have nothing to fall back on and have to claw your way up from the bottom. TiVo may be an upstart, but they have a viable business model which will rake in plenty of money soon enough.
TiVo will fail (Score:5, Insightful)
TiVo will fail because most people cannot understand what it it.
Most people fail to understand that what they see on the TV screen does not control what their VCR records.
Most people do not understand that when they dial the phone, a bunch of computers are digitizing their voice and routing it around, converting back to sound, and playing to the person they called.
Most people do not understand why the refridgerator gets cold inside.
Most people do not understand that modern "Analog" clocks are also digital.
Most people have no idea how a thermus knows when to stay hot and when to stay cold.
Most people in places where snow is uncommon do not understand that it makes the roads slick.
Most people pay for expensive water when it is free at water fountains everywhere.
Most people do not understand that the Coke in the can costs less then the can itself.
Most people don't understand what is wrong with Microsoft software.
Most people don't understand the difference between a surge protector and an outlet strip.
Most people (in the USA) don't vote.
Most people don't understand that silica is not edible.
Most people don't understand that they should not touch hot surfaces.
Most people don't understand that coffee is served hot, unless the word "iced" appears in front of it.
Most people don't understand the game of chess.
The Ultimate Home Device (Score:3, Interesting)
The most elemental function is that of a DVR. It wraps a user interface around the whole home television experience. And once you control the user interface... (points over to The Book of Microsoft)
Now, people have a computer that, for the first time, is running 24x7 and they don't shut it off. They don't turn their DVRs off when they are done watching television. It is always on. All television commands (record this, channel up, etc) are received by the DVR, and then forwarded to other devices (DSS receiver) as needed.
Now, this DVR has a broadband input. How can we sell software and services? Answer: Game Console.
A game console you know has to have enough computing power (or at least graphics processing) to be pretty advanced. Add a decent hard drive. Know what the next step is?
Games-on-demand. Think Yahoo! Games on Demand. I actually tried this service, and I liked it. For $15 (I cancelled immediately after subscribing so I'd just have 30 days server), I am able to play 15 games up to a month.
How does it work? It downloads a good bulk of the game onto my local hard drive. Then, my hard drive works like a cacheing filesystem in front of an NFS filesystem. That is, the game runs off of the local hard drive cache, and anything not in the local cache is downloaded from the central server and placed in my local cache. For all my game knows, it is running off of the CD or a real filesystem on a real hard drive.
This means more revenue because now you don't have to trouble with the distribution of software over the shelves. Microsoft (or X company) is going to take off where the music industry has failed... online software distribution or rental, and for a nice profit.
You might add in some tangents. Video on demand is somewhat interesting. There could be a good market there... if done correctly. Various lifestyle 'services' (local weather maps available at the touch of a few buttons).
Of course, remember that this is all in a very friendly menu system of a video computing device... not a personal computer. It is wrapped up with a bow on top for the masses who want to play a game or watch tv, but not have to manage or figure out a personal computer.
So, I'll argue that TiVo could be at a disadvantage being a first mover. It has pioneered the DVR space. The DVR space is the very KEY to getting people to put an operating system on their television set. The problem is that TiVo doesn't have the muscle to fully leverage that position. (And why Microsoft competes in that territory.)
Completely Off Base (Score:3, Interesting)
First, licensing is not something that may save TiVo, it is one of the main focuses of their business. With partnerships with Sony, AT&T and DirecTV, and the technology in use in America, Asia and Europe, TiVo is well positioned to benefit from the continued rollout of this technology, not suffer from competition.
TiVo doesn't really make and sell the hardware, so they are not like the hardware based companies (Apple, Commodore) they are compared to in the article. Yes, they do subsidize the stand alone units, but standalone units (and competing standalone units like XBOX) are destined for the garbage heap. Integrating the technology into set top boxes (satellite/cable) and letting the service providers subsidize/support the equipment is the model that will succeed. This completely invalidates the authors arguments of complicated setup and being hard to sell in a retail establishment.
TiVo plays nicely with content providers. TiVo has gone out of their way to try to stay on the good side of the studio's IP lawyers. The clearest example is that it takes some intelligence to turn on 30-second skip; it is not enabled by default from the factory.
TiVo actively pursues other revenue sources. TiVo is using its service to deliver targeted advertising (Best Buy, Lexus).
Now, I am not saying that TiVo as a company will succeed in its current form (my crystal ball is at the cleaners), but if it fails it is not going to be because of some mythical disadvantage from being in the market first.
Time Warner's cable box with built in DVR (Score:3, Informative)
From what I hear, the Tivo software is definitely better. The Explorer 8000 has some quirks. You can set it up to record all episodes of something from the interactive guide. At the end of watching the episode, you get asked if you want to delete the show. You do (since you watched it) and it deletes the scheduled recordings of the other episodes! Definitely not intuitive!
It does not have the thumbs up/down or some of the other nice Tivo features.
The advantages are:
1. The digital cable box rental is $5.95 per month. This is the same as regular digital cable boxes.
2. The PVR service is $10 per month (a little cheaper than Tivo).
3. There is no $299+ outlay for the box. If it dies, Time Warner replaces it. Yes, you would lose what you had taped.
4. No need to phone or ethernet hookup. The Guide is pulled in over the already attached cable connection.
While I am sure Tivo is better in many ways, I am happy with my digital cable box with PVR functionality.
Newton (Score:3, Funny)
The handwriting recognition was incredibly bad.
The handwriting recognition was basically unusable. I know, I have one of the original models. From what I hear people say online, the later models were much better. I guess they just couldn't recover their image after nelson made fun of them on The Simpsons
A friend of mine has a Tivo and aboslutely loves it. There's a big difference from being the first one to put out a shitty product and being to first one to put out a product that gets rave reviews from its owners.
I disagree with TiVo being first, here's why (Score:3, Interesting)
1. It is not true that being first on a new market usually leads to failure (the author seems to imply that). Exactly the opposite, history has shown once and again that being first is most of the time to your advantage, and most of the time leads to success. Is this the case with TiVo? Judge by yourself
2. The author of the article gave a bad example with the Amiga. What killed the Amiga was not the industry or the users or the competition, it was Commodore itself. It had the most awful marketing department in the world (and this is an understatement).
3. The newton's failure was not being first, but being over-engineered to an excessive cost (the author does imply something to this respect). The market was not prepared for such an expensive and large unit at that time.
Rolling Your Own Tivo/ReplayTV (Score:3, Informative)
Want to watch a football but don't want to spend the nice afternoon? Record it and watch it that evening in one hour (I know it's not the same but if you want to watch pure football, it's the fastest option).
I ran across this article that shows how someone put together their own TIVO for fairly cheaply (if you don't want to drop as much money on a tivo or replayTV). Personally, I think there are more ways to cut corners on his PVR to further drop the price but it's a good attempt--especially with the software that he chose.
Re:And who owns Slate? (Score:2, Insightful)
Not EVERYTHING is a conspiracy.
NAM37
Re:And who owns Slate? (Score:5, Insightful)
Not EVERYTHING is a conspiracy.
And sometimes, a move like this is smart from a Microsoft business perspective. It's not about conspiracy theories - it's about calling BS when we see it. Microsoft calling a competitive product inferior or dying doesn't mean there's a conspiracy - it means that they're trying to promote their product by discrediting their opponents. It's fairly smart, on their part. If you, an average consumer, heard that the Tivo was dying, but that the XBox2 would be better than a Tivo and would let you play DVDs and games, which would you be more inclined towards?
It's business, nothing more.
Re:why (Score:2)
New Economy (Score:3, Insightful)
amounts of moneys on start ups because they might be the next microsoft. Now this joker (and I've heard it elsewhere lately) is saying that start ups are bad because they don't have the wisdom to compete in the big bad marketplace. Did all companies just spring forth from one big meta-company called Adam and Eve LLC while all of the start ups have failed?
Not necessarilly (Score:5, Funny)
You'll understand why this isn't a plug for MS, but an unbiased article on a site that just happens to be owned by MS.
And when you grow up and stop assuming everyone who is even mildly critical of your employer^H^H^H^H^H^H favorite software vendor isn't necessarilly a troll, perhaps you'll be able to ponder larger pictures and marketing strategies that go beyond a particlar brand item v. another to encompass an attempt at taking over an entire market v. another.
Hint: Microsoft's push toward DRM and Palladium has a lot more to gain by taking over the TiVo market than it does by taking over the playstation market. Why? Tivo is based upon open, non-DRM hardware and an open, GPLed operating system, while playstation is itself a proprietary player and, while it is a competitor, it does not stand in the way of Microsoft's DRM and Palladium strategies, despite having a GNU/Linux kit available for hobbiests. TiVo, on the other hand, as a widely adopted PVR that does use standard PC parts and a free operating system, does represent not only a potential barrier to Microsoft's DRM-and-Palladium-Ueber-Alles strategy, it has two other factors which the PS lacks:
1) Potentially a much larger marketplace than PS (nearly every household has a VCR, while many fewer have game consoles of any kind)
2) A legitimate competitor to whome consumers will flock if given a choice between that and a DRM/Palladium crippled alternative.
Many informed people believe the X-Box may well be a Palladium trial balloon and a test bed for emerging Microsoft DRM technology. If true, its use and penetration of the game console market is incidental compared to those qualities and the value they represent to Microsoft, and in that light it becomes clear that TiVo is a much more potent threat to Microsoft's plans than the playstation is likely to ever become. In which case, throwing a bone to the PS in an attempt to appear "neutral" (which is hardly likely of a Microsoft publication, any more than Linux Weekly is neutral when it posts a link to a pro-Linux article. Even more telling, this article was written by a Microsoft author, not merely linked to by a Microsoft site) costs them nothing in the persuit of their larger strategy.
Tivo already does this. (Score:3, Informative)
ReplayTV does multiple TVs, and much more (Score:3, Informative)
ReplayTV's [replaytv.com] latest units (the 4000 and 4500 series [replaytv.com]) take care of this. You connect them all to your home Ethernet and you can watch shows in the bedroom that you recorded in the living room [replaytv.com]. They even have enough CPU now to be streaming one show while you record another.
Replay has also added other features that TIVO doesn't have, like web-based scheduling [replaytv.com] without compromising the security of your home network, photo viewing [replaytv.com] and sending shows across the net [replaytv.com].
Sorry to be such a blatant shill, but I've owned a ReplayTV for about 3 years now, and I think they're great. In many ways I think they are much nicer than TIVO. (I don't own stock in SonicBlue or even know anyone who works for them).
Re:Fun being human. (Score:3, Insightful)
Being a geek, I remember Atari's home systems with fondness, which got stomped out by nintendo when the NES was released. The withered up to the Atari Jaguar, but the home console market clearly did not go to the pioneers. Nintendo was clearly not in the game from the beginning..... I don't know about the fast food or retail outlet histories, but I can tell you that Nintendo would be evidence to support, not detract from their argument.