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Are Blogging and Unemployment Related? 175

Roland Piquepaille writes "The Washington Post is really nice with bloggers. Yesterday, it carried an article named "Free Speech -- Virtually," or "Legal Constraints on Web Journals Surprise Many 'Bloggers'". Today, Cynthia L. Webb focuses on an hypothesis from Chris Gulker, which he exposed in a column published by The Independent, "The View from Silicon Valley: Bloggers come in from the cold." As said Chris Gulker, "Many of us are Webloggers 'bloggers' for short. It would be interesting to see if there's a correlation between the meteoric rise of blogging, the practice of keeping a frequently-updated online journal, and the rise of unemployment in Silicon Valley and other tech corridors. Check this column for a summary or the original article for more details."
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Are Blogging and Unemployment Related?

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  • "It would be interesting to see if there's a correlation between the meteoric rise of blogging, the practice of keeping a frequently-updated online journal, and the rise of unemployment in Silicon Valley and other tech corridors."

    It'd also be interesting to see if there's a correlation between having a SHITTY ECONOMY and the rise of unemployment in fields who have MORE WORKERS THAN THERE IS DEMAND. But surely that's not possible. Blogging must be the cause.

    • A possible result of unemployment is having time on your hands to record your thoughts...
    • Hahahaha... You dumb shit. Wow. I can't stop laughing. hahahahaha must hit submit... side hurting... hahahaha
    • It'd also be interesting to see if there's a correlation between having a SHITTY ECONOMY and the rise of unemployment in fields who have MORE WORKERS THAN THERE IS DEMAND. But surely that's not possible. Blogging must be the cause.

      the original post said "correlation" not "causal relation". it is interesting to note that if you make a graph of ice cream sales and drowning deaths over the course of a year the curves are almost identical. from this do we conclude that ice cream causes drowing? hm.

      on a purely anecdotal note: i started my blog the day my two-weeks' notice arrived. of course the idea wasn't original, i copied it from a friend [nekulturny.org] who started his blog after getting laid off...

  • bah (Score:4, Insightful)

    by nomadic ( 141991 ) <nomadicworld@ g m a i l . com> on Saturday December 21, 2002 @09:03PM (#4938564) Homepage
    "Blogging", besides being an extremely annoying term has way too much attention paid to it nowadays. It's just not that interesting a phenomenon.
    • Re:bah (Score:5, Insightful)

      by Jerf ( 17166 ) on Saturday December 21, 2002 @10:14PM (#4938773) Journal
      "Blogging", besides being an extremely annoying term has way too much attention paid to it nowadays.

      I always get a kick out of seeing this kind of comment on Slashdot. It makes me wonder what the poster thinks a weblog is... because by most definitions, Slashdot is one.

      Yeah, it's now a multiple-author weblog with a very well-established comment system, both traits somewhat unusual, but it's a weblog. Many people use Slash to run more traditional weblogs.

      Does your post count as part of the "too much attention" paid to it?
      • Re:bah (Score:3, Insightful)

        by Fnkmaster ( 89084 )
        Yes, a blog can frankly be just about any website out there with shit that people are interested in. News, commentary, opinion, these are all things found on blogs. The term seems to be reserved these days for what we used to (way back in the day) call personal homepages, it's just that now these said homepages also contain regularly updated news/opinion/commentary on whatever the fuck people want to write about.


        I personally prefer to waste my time posting my news/opinion/commentary to Slashdot, but who cares, the point is all about the democratization of opinion sharing the web allows. The more interesting the content you produce is, the more likely people will read it. Again, the large multiuser forums like /. seem a bit more interesting than just slapping it up on your own page and hoping somebody will read it. But whatever floats yer boat.

      • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

        Comment removed based on user account deletion
      • Hey,

        It makes me wonder what the poster thinks a weblog is... because by most definitions, Slashdot is one.

        If I may say so, that's rather like saying "The world is basically a giant grain of sand, only larger".

        Also, a lot of weblogs are one person documenting thier own lives... which are frequently trivially boring to people who don't know the authors. There ain't much of that on slashdot.

        Just my $0.02,

        Michael
        • Re:bah (Score:2, Interesting)

          by blue trane ( 110704 )
          I think it was Bernard Malamud who said something like "any man writing honestly about his own life is interesting." I agree...
      • Congratulations on missing the point by a few parsecs. You see, Slashdot is more like a news site with some comment system in it that came originally from weblogs. True weblogs are about the personal affairs or doings of a certain individual or a group of individuals. (oxymoron?) Slashdot is more centered around current news in the computer hardware and software business, centered around open-source development and the implications of notorious US laws on said development. Trust me, Slashdot would NOT have as many followers if it was purely about Taco's nightly adventures with his wife or his latest kernel compile. (Which technically could be the former, I don't know what the guy does with his wife at night. "Honey, let's compile a kernel!" - "I've got a headache...")

        This is in sharp contrast to most weblogs out there, which are mainly focussed about what happens to a single person. I can't really bring myself to give a damn about Fred's personal live or Mary's rants about something that isn't my concern to start with. It simply doesn't interest me, though I'm pretty convinced that there are people with certain voyeuristic tendecies who are interested. But that isn't the issue around here at the moment. Slashdot simply is NOT one of those way too common and boring weblogs that infect the net.

        That, and the parent had a problem with the term "blog", which is imho the most overhyped and retarded-sounding word which was spawned by the dot-com catastrophe.

    • Re:bah (Score:3, Interesting)

      I agree at least the "BLOG" is an annoying term, but if you think about it new terminology pops up all the time.

      Take "IM" or "PM" for instance. Instant or Private Messages have been made popular by AOL, MSN, and YAHOO. ICQ was more popular than any of these services, though, and it was just calling them "Online Messages". Don't believe me? Install an old version of ICQ and try to send a message. The Window will say SEND ONLINE MESSAGE.

      I remember back in the old multiline BBS days (when I ran a 10 line BBS, that is) the software I was running refered to "Instant Messages" as "Online Messages" or "OLM"s for short. (Cnet Amiga Pro was the software, for those interested). Now days if you say "I'll O.L.M you later" to someone they just give you this blank stare. In my circle of friends, though, OLM is the term we used from 1990 till about 1998 so "IM" is still kind of new to us. Old habits, and all that.

      My point is, terminology comes and goes. So while I may not like new terms, I accept that they will be coined. What bothers me more than new terms that are annoying is when people take well established terms and misuse them. Esspecially annoying are people who are under some serious misconceptions about something or another, or idiots trying to sound like they know more than they do. There are a lot of both types going around and it bothers me to no end.
    • Re:bah (Score:3, Interesting)

      by schlach ( 228441 )
      It's just not that interesting a phenomenon.

      Are you kidding??! Do you realize how coveted correspondence, diaries, personal logs and photo albums are from 50 years ago? 100 years ago? 300 years ago?!

      We are changing the way history will be written. We are creating an army of primary sources, the people who don't write about history - they are history. In 100 years, people will be able to formulate insights about our lives, not based on their conjecture, their agenda, and a few scraps of preserved-information (probably from the ruling , literate classes); but based on the daily records of hundreds of thousands of people from many walks of life.

      Weblogs are democratizing history. Or open-sourcing it, if you prefer. And right now the history that's being preserved is by-and-large that of the geek elite that always runs ahead of the general public curve. But ten years from now, weblogging will be as ubiquitous to the average American as the Internet is today. Give the rest of the world time, and they'll catch up with us. You won't get everyone's story, but you'll get many of them. Too many of them to conveniently gloss over the unpopular truths of our time. Will anyone in the future ever be able to write that our country united with a single voice behind the humanitarian, populist, environmentally-sound policies of the Bush Administration? Not as long as there are archives of the weblogs that are being written today.

      I see weblogging as the most interesting thing to come out of this whole Internet experiment. Err, I mean, the most interesting thing after slashdot. [slashdot.org] =)
      • by ces ( 119879 )
        One problem with this is the transitory nature of the media. If someone more than 20 years ago was going to keep a journal, diary, or engage in regular correspondence with someone they were going to do it on paper. This paper would end up in attics and safe deposit boxes to be found years later.

        I seriously doubt in 10 years if most weblogs entries from today will still be around in any form. The harddrives will have been wiped, the backup tapes and CDROMs tossed. There will only be a very few cases where some geek has been careful to maintain his archives and move them to whatever blog he is using today or where the blog is on some forgotten computer at MIT where the old blogs are preserved.

        While the Wayback machine and some modern day version of Dejanews may help to preserve some of the blogs, I fear many may be lost.

        Uh, hold on a sec, I've got to go write a business plan and call some friends of mine at Google.
        • Uh, hold on a sec, I've got to go write a business plan and call some friends of mine at Google.

          No joke. Give me a call if you get anything started.

          I seriously doubt in 10 years if most weblogs entries from today will still be around in any form.

          You may be right. I would hope that more companies become active in archival projects, ala the Wayback Machine [archive.org], but if they can't make any money on it for 50 years, it'll be tough. Perhaps the job should be done by history book publishers who are reasonably certain that they will be around in 50 years... or at least know they'll be able to sell it to whoever replaces them.

          So get back on the phone to Google, tell them we know who's footing the bill. =)

          Do you think most people don't want to back-up their blogs? I tend to think that people won't just abandon their diaries, and that they must have considered the difference in terms of longevity between weblogging and traditional diaries. Perhaps it should be people saving backup CDROMs in their paper correspondence and photo boxes.

          Now I could totally see someone not having proper backups in place in case of total hard-drive failure, or their hosting company going out of business without advance notice. These folks (myself included ;) will probably have to be burned once before they start taking backups seriously. But everyone else will probably want to keep their blog around in some form or another for posterity.

          To blogging software developers: solve our problems! Incorporate easy backup and flat-text export utilities into your software, and encourage your users to make periodic backups.

          To bloggers: think about how interesting every random scrap of information you think of will be in the future. Your trip to the mall, what you told Jeanette the other day, the economies of trading webcam pictures to lonely geeks for goodies from Amazon [camwhores.com], everything. So back it up! Use blogging software with a backup feature, and keep a record that you can look at in 40 years, and show to your kids (depending on what your kids are into ; )
  • "Today, Cynthia L. Webb focuses on an hypothesis from Chris Gulker, which he exposed in a column published by The Independent, "The View from Silicon Valley: Bloggers come in from the cold"

    In other words, Chris Gulker is a professional troller.
  • Well, duh (Score:5, Interesting)

    by Jeremiah Blatz ( 173527 ) on Saturday December 21, 2002 @09:05PM (#4938572) Homepage
    When I was employed, I didn't have anything like the time to blog. Once I was laid off, I posted often. Now that I have some freelance work, I post less.

    There are certainly counterexamples. I know some folks who find it therapeutic, so they make time to blog. For them, it's a journal that they can selectively share. However, I have certainly witnessed this correlation among my friends.
  • by RumpRoast ( 635348 ) on Saturday December 21, 2002 @09:05PM (#4938576)
    If you use that word in an interview

    "I'm an avid blogger in my spare time"

    *slap* *slam*
    • by Anonymous Coward
      are you speaking from experience ?

      i know at least one writer that got a job *because* she was able to demonstrate her skills and attract a large amounts of traffic.

      she turned that job into a very lucrative career, as well as a book.
  • by Anonymous Coward on Saturday December 21, 2002 @09:07PM (#4938581)
    Could it be that blogging is more a reaction against mainstream media conquering the web, with portals and pages that look alike like one TV-Channel to another?

    Or am i the only one that gets the impression that the web looked much more interessting and much less boring 2 to 5 years ago?
    • Because, as we all know, each and every blog (*shudder*) looks very different from all the other ones.

      The weblogging phenomenon is an outpouring of talentless hacks putting up shitty websites to jump on the Interweb bandwagon.

    • by GigsVT ( 208848 ) on Saturday December 21, 2002 @11:43PM (#4939093) Journal
      the web looked much more interessting and much less boring 2 to 5 years ago

      Do you really remember the web 5 years ago?

      Let me refresh your memory:
      "This site designed for Netscape" links
      Animated mailto link gifs of a letter going into an envelope
      "Under Construction"
      "Do you like my new high contrast background image??? It is the same color as my text!!"
      "Here is the current weather"
      Javascript popup: What is your name? Hi $name!
      Frames.... need I say more?
      Here are all the meaningless awards this site has gotten. (Slashdot is still guilty of this one!)
      500K index.html with anchors instead of using multiple pages
      More animated gifs than characters of text
      No google

      --
      The list goes on... my point is, the web is better today than it has ever been in history. There is more information than ever, the pages are designed much more cleanly and usably, etc.
      • Oooooowwww I want to send this to a former colleague SOOOoooOOOOO bad. He's a web designer who STILL uses the animated GIF of a letter going into the envelope on ALL his customer's sites--even the high dollar ones. He only uses frames (and wonders why the padlock icon doesn't work on secure sites), has Under Construction pages on commerical sites which are over a year old, and has a "This site does not work for AOL users" message on one site.

        I'm sure he wonders why he's having a hard time getting clients, too. . .

      • Hey, you forgot the tag.

        But hey, it's better today, right? Instead of a "designed for Netscape" tag, we get redirected to a page that says, "you are using an unsupported browser, use Microsoft's sucky implementation if you want to check your bank balance." And the animated .gif problem has been replaced by Flash.

  • by mrleemrlee ( 192314 ) <mrleemrlee1@[ ]cast.net ['com' in gap]> on Saturday December 21, 2002 @09:07PM (#4938584) Homepage
    ... the rise of blogging is much more tied to the introduction of tools such as Blogger and Movable Type that make the process completely painless and coding-free. Almost none of the major bloggers are unemployed tech-types. I have no doubt that some bloggers are, but none of the bloggers who get the most traffic and other attention are.

    Off the top of my head, the bloggers I can think of are (and you can probably figure out who some of them are): law professor, free-lance journalist (lots of these for obvious reasons), retired software engineer, university professor, graduate student, medical resident, military technician, political cartoonist ...

    Bloggers come from all walks of life; some have certainly come from the tech field, but the explosion of blogging has come from people who are talented writers and have something interesting to say, but who haven't been part of the mainstream media.
  • by Cyno01 ( 573917 ) <Cyno01@hotmail.com> on Saturday December 21, 2002 @09:08PM (#4938588) Homepage
    Just because there's correlation doesn't mean its cause and effect. In recent years the number of teenage smokers has dropped, and cpu processor speeds continues to increase, the two must be related...
    • Well, it must because the faster processors are doing the smoking! Especially them AMDs, gotta be careful with 'em -- they say it's peer pressure, ya know. </bad joke>
    • Really? (Score:5, Funny)

      by MacAndrew ( 463832 ) on Saturday December 21, 2002 @09:50PM (#4938725) Homepage
      In recent years the number of teenage smokers has dropped, and cpu processor speeds continues to increase, the two must be related

      Really? Tell the Post, they might publish it!

      As was hammered into our heads in Bio 1, "correlation does not prove causation." Repeat 100 times. Remember it when reading The Bell Curve. Now if only the rest of the world would do the same.
      • Re:Really? (Score:2, Offtopic)

        by bm_luethke ( 253362 )
        While people still like to bash the bell curve it's the first place I ever heard that phrase, and they said it often. I also learned first there what a normal distribution was (and what they said was the same I got in my stats classes).

        The problem came when journalist and many other people read the correlation numbers and assumed it proved something. They complained constantly and many people took it to be gospel.

        In fact the final conclusion of the bell curve was an increased emphasis on education. That a high level of education for people of lower intelligence had a great impact, just don't force the smarter kids to learn at thier pace - and I agree totally.

        The other part is that genetics plays a large part of maximum intelligence. Thier quote was basically that had newton grown up in the rain forest he probably would have not invented calculus, but he would still have been smart. Don't force avarage children to take AP calsses and don't force brilliant children to take fundamental (that's what the lowest "hardness" classes were called when I was in school), Which also makes sense - maximise what each level is able to learn, don't force the kids (if an average intelligence can work hard enough to pass an ap course let them). All in all I think that is a reasonable thing, much better than what I experience in school (in order to "boost" thier self esteem they made certain kids go into a higher class than they could actually do, they learned nothing and they slowed the rest of the class considerably).

        And finally my thoughts on it are most people have no problem with every other physical aspect being ruled by genetics, why is your innate intelligence the only one not? intellegence != education and that is important to remember, as above, put a below average person in an AP class and they are still below average, but an above average in a fundamental class and they are still above average. An above average that lives in the mountains of tennessee (as I have several family members who do) without electricity and no school : they are not educated, take a below average intelligence person in the cities of tennessee and put them through high school and they will have a lot higer level of education (will no more "things"). I never really found that too drastic of a thought and fairly obvious, but I know some people who that idea just enrages.
        • Well, The Bell Curve was not the first place I heard the term, as I majored in psychology. I thoroughly believe that genetics influence a tremendous amount of our makeup, especially our susceptibility to various illnesses. However, I found The Bell Curve nearly unreadable. I found it a good example of taking a little data and stretching it over much too great a distance.

          Everyone should make up their minds for themselves, to the degree their genetics permit, but bear in mind that the books conclusions are far from received wisdom. Keep a close eye on the book's use of statistics and remember the inherent limitations of intelligence testing with its fixation on one number to characterize each of us. Efforts to do so in the past have failed spectacularly. It his quite a leap to go from the shaky assumption that intelligence can be quantified to thinking we know how to design society around it.

          For the interested, I happened across this site [mugu.com] which had gone to impressive lengths to collect commentary, pro and con, on The Bell Curve. One of the most critical, and entertaining to read, is the late Gould, also of Harvard.

          Oddly enough, the late co-author Herrnstein was my Psych 1 professor. Seemed like a nice guy. :)
          • I don't necessarily disagree, and I think neither do the authors. One chapter of the book goes over both problems with thier study and what you can't deduce from it (it's late in the book). They basically say something similar to what you said above (though a little less critical of course :) ). While correlation does not prove causation it doesn't disprove causation either, a big chunk of the book was an attempt to strengthen that argument.

            Gould assumes too much (basically the problem I have with many, not all, of the detractors). He begins by saying they are social darwinisms and debunks that theory, good - he right on debunking it. Unfortunatly for gould The Bell Curve was not the classic social darwinism he debunked. He also make claims he does not support, i.e.:

            The general claim is neither uninteresting nor illogical, but it does require the validity of fourshaky premises, all asserted (but hardly discussed or de- fended) by Herrnstein and Murray. Intelligence, in their formulation, must be depictable as a single number, capable of ranking people in linear order, genetically based, and effectively immutable. If any of these premises are false, their en-tire argument collapses.

            occupies at least a whole chapter on cultural influences and the weaknesses of single number IQ tests, he just didn't like thier arguments so he dismisses them as "not there" (Gould seems to do this quite often on social issues). As one of the articles about his review is that modern IQ tests are not quite as simple as they make out (though they still reduce it to one number). Basically it seems there are several camps on the use of IQ tests, if you fall into one of the diametrically opposed viewpoints of them you will hate the book. The genetically based IQ was what they were trying to show so it doesn't count. And finally immutable IQ's don't necessarilly invalidate what they said, unless they are drastically changable (like from 95-130, some variation is expected but not that serious)

            or another example

            for early intervention in education
            might work to boost I.Q. permanently,


            he accuses authors of no proof and then makes a statement like this, yea it might, and it might not - didn't proove anything. At least link to some study that shows this, it's like saying our current theory of gravity might not be correct because somewhere in the universe it may not hold. Well, yea, that's true - but that doesn't mean that the current gravity theory is wrong either (nor should we ignore it becuase of that). I don't know enough about IQ studies if it is shown that IQ's fluctuate signifigantly or not, but the twin studies The Bell Curve uses would seem to suggest a strong genetic influence and relativly immutable, at least show evidence to the contrary or I have to assume Gould is just being a hack.

            next he goes on to dicuss inheritance in things such as height, and is totally correct. What he failed to address was the use of identical twins study, and what I at least took as the bulk of the bell curve. As the authors stated the sample is still quite small and there are other problems but no real showstoppers. Again Gould has always seemed to have this trait: ignore stuff he doesn't think is relevant.

            After reading Gould refutations I'm basically repeating them, they were much more insightfull than his (and one was critical of both the bell curve and Gould).

            basically when I read statements like the one I responded too it's usually someone who has not read the book. My phsych teacher was a Phd candidate and went into a 15 minute tirade about the bell curve one day, all completely wrong. I said that that is not what the book said and with a triumphant smile she asked had I raed the book, yes, twice though the apendicies only once. I then asked if she had and she said, "well, I raed the introduction but that is all I needed to read". Basically she listened to what the news complained about and reiterated it.

            The other one that drive me nuts is how often Adam Smiths The Wealth of Nations is misquoted by people who have never read it, and the last one is charles darwins Origin of the Species.

            • Note that I said Gould was "entertaining" not "right." :) I haven't read the two arguments closely enough. Gould was arrogant but very bright. One of his best points was simply that 90% of the reviewers refused even to try to understand the statistics -- which is scary.

              My 2 principal objections are pretty simple. First, I think Herrnstein puts way too much faith in the single-number IQ, and no subtlety of testing can compensate; also, because the IQ tests are strictly observational they provide nothing but an unproven inference of immutable IQ. I felt that Herrnstein discussed the problems with IQ testing in an insincere way, to defuse rather than answer critics.

              Second, and much more important, their speculations on public policy are ill-founded. Humans are so much more complex that their native abilities (yes I think these exist) and we have yet to properly appreciate the effects of motivation and environment. People who brush off environment stun me -- I am college-educated, read a lot, have kids, and spend a lot of time teaching my kids; it's disturbing to be told I don't make a difference! I think an intellectually active environment is enormously beneficial (and fun), and that these benefits would carry over the adopted kids. That IQ is somewhat inherited does not mean inheritance determines IQ -- though many will assume it does.

              Frankly, I'm even comfortable saying that should these IQ tests be demonstrated highly reliable, they should not be used. The human tendency towards bigotry is too strong. If our real intention is to better society, subtle improvements in education will be dwarfed by the social divisions. Let people prove themselves as individuals, not as members of labeled groups reminiscent of Brave New World.

              Personally I am much more interested in performance, and have seen that it often runs independently of ability. the stereotype of the traumas of putting kids in the wrong tracks begs the questions of whether we're messing up on tracking -- the simpler courses are often boring for everybody. If you want to know what children are like, get to know them, don't engrave a number on their foreheads.

              I think Herrnstein should have stopped with the material about IQ. With Herrnstein's death it will be interesting to see what if any future his work will have. I think it will be little.

              Again Gould has always seemed to have this trait: ignore stuff he doesn't think is relevant.

              Well, we all do that! Have you had your IQ checked recently? Yes, I understand what you really mean.
        • That's pretty much how my high school was run (in Montana, then one of the two highest-ranked states for education; the other was Minnesota). You could take any advanced class you cared to so long as you had the prerequisites; if you had to work hard to pass, well, that was fine too. They tended to discourage advanced students from taking the fundamental courses, but it wasn't forbidden either. The upshot was that our "average" and even "low-end" students did as well as the "average" and even "advanced" students in less-enlightened schools. And during my 3 years there, we had all of TWO people, out of over 1500, who failed to graduate (which required at least a "C" average).

          What does this have to do with blogging? In my observation: The desire to express oneself in words, and to share those words, tends to parallel higher intelligence. Really learning HOW to express oneself (ie. better education) may tend to make one more inclined to do so, if only from educational habit and the idea that it's there to be used.

          As to unemployment -- well, the correlation there is likely to be free time vs inclincation. I know when I'm busy, I don't get around to newsgroups for weeks on end, and barely skim thru slashdot; when I have less to do, I read and post here more, and I read and post in newsgroups every day. If I weren't already inclined to that, I'd likely find something else to do with my free time.

          [Corollary: if I didn't post to slashdot every day, I'd have more free time for other things ;) ]

          • [Corollary: if I didn't post to slashdot every day, I'd have more free time for other things ;) ]

            Like what? :)

            In order to demonstrate the relationship if any between blogging and unemployment more variables would have to be considered such as the REASON the folks are unemployed. Note also that we want to pair employment and blogging statuses. Then control for other factors like working at home (more likely to blog) and so on and so on. Then do a big scary ANOVA [texasoft.com]. In short it is NOT interesting whether blogging and unemployment are "correlated" -- it is interesting whether thet interact. Correlation tells us nothing but prejudices us plenty, esp. when the slang and statistical meanings for it are confused.

            Very interesting about your schooling. One point of resentment in my high school was that AP classes were weighed the same as regular classes in calculating GPA. There were a number of students bright enough to take the harder classes who were also bright enough to not want the extra work; they handily beat a number of us on GPA. No, this was not a major trauma, GPA was unimportant except at graduation; but I thought the proferred justification that the school didn't want a supposed grade advantage to entice people into taking AP classes was ridiculous, God forbid we entice people to take harder classes.
            • Um, free time. Maybe I'd get around to doing all those things that presently sound like too much work. ;)

              You're right about the correlations; free time vs hobbies isn't particularly useful, but hobbies vs (un)employment might be. I *have* noticed Bad Psych Things about people whose hobbies and work are essentially identical.

              In our school, GPA wasn't weighted either, but it tended to remain fairly static for a given student's level of effort. We had VERY good teachers, who were VERY good at adjusting coursework to both educate and challenge students on an as-needed basis. Also, being an egghead or a nerd/geek type improved your social standing, so everyone wanted to be one, and there was considerable peer pressure to do well. So taking it easy for the sake of GPA generally didn't enter into it. And LISB4, you had to have some good reason for taking a "too easy" course, and your counselor had to approve it.

              This was 30 years ago -- for all I know they may have since broken the system beyond repair.

    • even if they are related, I couldnt give a flying shit. Its not like it implies blogging causes unemployment.

      It makes sense, no job, u have more time on your hands, I don't need this done scienticianly for me ok psychology magazine advocates??

    • Just because there's correlation doesn't mean its cause and effect. In recent years the number of teenage smokers has dropped, and cpu processor speeds continues to increase, the two must be related...

      Actually, they are vaguely related - you've just stumbled onto one of Moore's numerous lesser known laws - that the number of anti-smoking ads kids are exposed to will double every election year.

    • probably when nobody's able to make the logical leap from "i'm unemployed and poor" to "i need a place to bitch."

    • Ah, but because there's a correlation, the numbers will continue to work in relation. So if some percent more become employed, some other percent will stop blogging. Cause and effect? Only cause and effect will be one number does one thing, the other will do something.

      Cause and effect can be hypothesised to some degree, but you do have to admit, if you have more time for blogging, you prolly aren't employed.
  • Um... what? (Score:4, Insightful)

    by Corvaith ( 538529 ) on Saturday December 21, 2002 @09:08PM (#4938589) Homepage
    How much of the population with weblogs/web journals do they really think comes from Silicon Valley?

    I'm in Ohio. I have a web journal. (No, you may not have the address.) I am not employed; I /am/ a freshman at a public university, and so my 3.936 GPA is of more importance than employment.

    None of which has anything to do with why I journal. I write there to avoid ranting to my friends, to talk about local news and personal happenings and all that junk. A few people I know read it periodically. I mostly just use it to vent.

    I do not live or work in Silicon Valley. I never have. I hope to god I never will. (I'm *not* a coder or sysem administrator or any of that. Not by any stretch of the imagination.) I'm not alone in this. The first people I knew with LiveJournals were high-school aged girls. (Actually, most of them started out at Diaryland. LJ is marginally better.)

    Among 'serious' bloggers, the ones I read are the ones who comment on politics and current events. Most of them, I suspect, are also not former tech-field workers.

    So unless we're correlating these things like the correlation between sunspot activity and skirt length--thank you, Mr. Heinlein--I don't see how they're getting this information. There's certainly no *causation* involved, that I can see.
  • Just think of the obviousness of it all. To post, you need time. Jobs tend to take up time, as does school for the younger ones, or just plain old life for all ages. If your life has more activities then you will post less often.
  • This is obvious (To me, anyways). Most people who blog are geeks. When gainfully enmployed, most geeks are coding, admining, etc. This takes up quite a bit of time, so there is no time to waste on blogs. But, when unemployed, there's plenty of time. And, since blogging is a geeky thing, unemployed-silicon-valley-ers are naturally drawn to it.

    I hope that made sense. =p

  • by tgrotvedt ( 542393 ) on Saturday December 21, 2002 @09:13PM (#4938601) Journal
    From the Washington Post article:

    >One woman, a Web designer who asked that her name not be used, said she lost her job because of what she wrote on her Web log.

    Emphasis on what she wrote, not Web log.

    The Web is one way to publish information, be it through a homepage, an article, a comment in a discussion, or a blog. Books are another, flyers are another etc. If this woman displayed sensitive information (thereby breaching a contract), she has to pay the price regardless of whether it was in a blog or anything else.

    There is nothing special or untouchable about a blog, and there is no reason to write an article explaining that although some people think that their blogs are anonymous, they can be tracked down. This is the same with a dozen other mediums.

    Despite the unwarranted focus on web logs, this article does deal with some issues of freedom of speech, perhaps that's what this /. discussion should mostly be about.

    --
    I can just feel the -1's already...

  • by Fnkmaster ( 89084 ) on Saturday December 21, 2002 @09:15PM (#4938612)
    Unemployed people don't have anything to do with their time. Also observed - a tendency to post more on Slashdot, download more porn, leech MP3s and warez from Kazaa, and install 5 Linux distros for comparison purposes and spent 18 hours setting up multi-boot. This and other news, tonight at 11.
  • by teamhasnoi ( 554944 ) <teamhasnoi@yahoo.cLIONom minus cat> on Saturday December 21, 2002 @09:16PM (#4938616) Journal
    I'm sure more jobs are lost to posting to /.

    I am supposed to be working right now.

    Damn you /., Damn you straight to hell!

  • I personally think education is important. Having a BS degree in Computer Science or atleast CIS, should be made pre-requisite for all IT related jobs. Real Jobs require problem solving skills, and the only way to get these skills is to attend a proper university. If you wanna spend all your life performing backups, than I think you can live without proper education.
    This is what happened in the DOT COM bust. Lots of unqualified people, without any problem solving skills and proper education got hired, and that pushed the companies down the drain.
    • Jesus christ, if you think an education is so important, go get one. You obviously can't put two and two together and come up with a coherent thought. The dot-com bubble burst by people with poor coding skills? Jesus, kid, go to a decent university, and maybe, just maybe, you'll learn how to think.

      What's with all of the funny posts tonight? Did a lot of people get their hands on some good weed or something? If so, why wasn't I invited?
    • Shit, Glad you dropped that bombshell about needing the BS in CS or CIS before moving into IT!

      I've been living a lie for the last X years
      of software analysis & design. Damn, I feel dirty and sorta used now.

      I only did a BS in Mech. eng., MSc in computer aided engineering and a PhD in numerical methods / mathematical modelling. I gotta quit on Monday and get me one of those CS degrees before I puke!

      T&K
    • Bummer, And I thought it was because the dot.coms. tried to charge for crap nobody wanted. So I guess if they were Educated dot.com folks blowing V.C on crap ideas then it would work out o.k. Thanks for clearing that up...
    • Lots of unqualified people, without any problem solving skills and proper education got hired, and that pushed the companies down the drain.


      exactly! except the unqualified people were the business suit types who had no idea about what the technology was capable of, were willing to promise everything to the vencaps regardless of technical feasibility, didn't understand the basics of price/earnings in establishing a company's worth and had no clue on how to run a business whatsoever.


      so-called "entrepeneurs" who felt the buzz of the "new" economy invalidated all formal understanding of traditional business practices were what blew up the dot coms. not the coders.

  • by dan_bethe ( 134253 ) <slashdotNO@SPAMsmuckola.org> on Saturday December 21, 2002 @09:17PM (#4938621)
    As said Chris Gulker, "Many of us are Webloggers 'bloggers' for short.
    With the creation of the latest stupidest-buzzphrase-abbreviation-hybrid-on-earth, saving unemployed hackers of the world the overuse of those two whole characters w and e, the RSI-wracked populace may finally begin to heal.
  • well.. (Score:1, Insightful)

    by Anonymous Coward
    I guess there is a correlation, because to run a blog successfully, you have to have something to whine about. Most of the people reading your blog are also whiners who run their own blog, and they'll pick up on your whining and link to it. Blogs are just big P2P networks for whiners.

    Seriously, most blogs are just a place to vent in public, and being unemployed is something to complain about.

    I wish these bloggers would focus their energies on something more productive tho.
  • by t0qer ( 230538 ) on Saturday December 21, 2002 @09:19PM (#4938630) Homepage Journal
    This doesn't surprise me one bit....

    What's the best way to discredit somebody? With slander/libel/rumors.

    While it's true that there are a lot of bloggers out of work, there isn't really a lot of alternatives for us pasty ass geeks that just wanna make boxes do neat things.

    A buddy of mine just got an 18k enlistment bonus, he's 35, tow truck driver. He's gonna drive gasonline tankers for the army. He had a skill they wanted. Nevermind the fact that he's 6'2" 260lbs.

    I went down to the recruitment office and told the recruiting officer "Hey I got 7 years experience as a sysadmin, I can build networks, I can set up servers, i'm really good at fixing things! I'm only 29 to boot!"

    He just sort of looked at me like I was in the wrong place. After finding out the army could only use me as either cannon fodder, latrine digger, or a cook, without a bonus, I figured I didn't really have a future there.

    Going on to John Ashcrofts Homeland Security Guard courses, I just looked at those people in their silly "I wanna be a cop" costumes and snickered.

    Sorry washington post, but it seems all the USA wants right now is cops, security officers and army personal. You say that bloggers are jobless, well fuck, what other options are we cut out for then???

    Most of the people I know in my field are not bullies, and do not enjoy placing control on other people. We're just not cut out for that kind of work mentally or physically, and WP want's to talk trash about us?

    Whats next? Are you going to say those people in the special olympics are slow?

    Heh.

    The white house is filled with the idiot son of an idiot. Why do I have this mental picture of GWB looking for the "any key"
  • Will Weaton (Score:2, Interesting)

    by houseofmore ( 313324 )
    Would agree! [wilwheaton.net]... I think.
    • I'm'a call you Shatner from now on.

      What amazes me even more is that you managed to get the URL correct, but spelled his name wrong in the subject.

      ...Shatner >:P
  • I've noticed I post a lot more on /. since I've been unemployed...
  • http://www.fuh-q.com/
    http://www.fury.com/

  • by TWX_the_Linux_Zealot ( 227666 ) on Saturday December 21, 2002 @09:29PM (#4938664) Journal
    ... I started blogging when I was employed, but had nothing to do at work 9/10 of the time. My boss basically told me to play, and when they needed me, they'd give me something to do. Since I could SSH to my webhost, I blogged. I was the closest you could get to unemployed while still receiving a full payroll check.

    When I became unemployed (not ever getting stuff to QA because Sales won't let Engineering finish anything tends to do this), I blogged even more. When I became employed again, I still blogged (and do to this day), but I didn't blog as much as I used to, since I 1) don't have time, 2) don't have as much wandering in my mind because I'm focused, and 3) don't have as much anger to rant off in a blog. Thus, I don't blog as much as I used to.

    I still do occasionally, though, and it is a good way to collect one's thoughts, and straighten one's self out a bit if one is a bit confused.
  • Since Ive found myself unemployed, I've capped my /. karma!

    : )
  • by ewanrg ( 446949 ) <ewan...grantham@@@gmail...com> on Saturday December 21, 2002 @09:54PM (#4938737) Homepage
    As anyone who's followed Mark Pilgrim's progress at Dive into Mark (www.diveintomark.org) knows, he recently got a plum writing assignment from O'Reilly because of the work he did on his website. I've noticed that Dave Winer seems to be doing quite well with his job and his web log.

    I seem to recall a few logic problems when I was in college that sounded an awful lot like the thinking in this article. Not that you have to take a logic class to be a reporter these days I suppose... :-)
    • I recall people in college getting in trouble with endless use of IRC (and Texas Relay Chat, or BitNET). Blogging is not the problem. Computers aren't the problem. They expose the existing problem people have separating time wasting from efficient time management; from aimless wandering and driving toward a goal.

      Keep in mind this was written by someone with 1207 *non-anonymous* comments on Slashdot. . .

  • to see if i can generate self-unemployment feeding my posting to /. addiction . . .

    c, article is wrong, blogs caused the bubble to burst when people found out what really happens to their computers . . ..

    still employed tho, must not be working, boss isn't too angry yet. guess there really is something to being self-employed :)

  • by dagg ( 153577 ) on Saturday December 21, 2002 @09:59PM (#4938752) Journal
    I don't think there is any relation. Sure, both are currently on the rise, but there is no direct cause and effect. We have unemployment right now because of 9/11, GWB, Republicans, Democrats, the Tech Bubble, Overinflated Stocks, and Strawberry Shortcake Returning [yahoo.com]. Ok, the last item is just a coincidence (the others are not coincidence :)).

    So why is blogging popular? I think it's the latest "not it your face" communication. First was snail mail, then came the phone, then e-mail, and IM. Whenever I communicate with you using one of those methods, I assume that *you* must be interested. But the problem is, how do I know if you are interested about a particular topic that I may want to rant about? I could just spam you with every idea in my head... or I can start a blog. A blog is an extremely passive communication system. If you are interested, just come on back and read my rants. If you are not interested, just don't come back.

    Unemployment will come and go. And blogging? Well... the time for blogging has just come. It's the next step.

  • I'll keep my overwhelming urge to release all of my ramblings on the downlow...

    Plus the fact that it serves basically no purpose for me (ie, no one cares about my ramblings vs. famous people who everyone wants to know every stupid thought that occurs to them)....

    On the other hand, I'm posting my ramblings to /. so I'm probably doomed to the unemployment line soon!
  • by Tuffnut ( 618438 )
    There are so many god damned blogs out there, that they just average blogs in general to be boring, uninteresting, and just plain shit. I really don't see the interest of reading about someone else's daily activities unless they happened to be extraordinarily interesting, or of great contrast to what you usually do. Most of them involve people posting about their lack of Cheerios in the cereal selection, and how they dropped a five dollar bill in the sewer today. Yawn yawn boring. I encourage you, if you are a blogger, to make up lies and throw some violence, sex, and perhaps a little crime into your posts. That way they aren't just existing, they're intertwining with the existence of other people's interest.
  • by akb ( 39826 ) on Saturday December 21, 2002 @10:11PM (#4938765)
    The article displays one of the primary attributes of blogging that I dislike, the fact that its strongly a mutual admiration society. The description of the bloggers meeting in meatspace clearly displays this, they are sitting around brimming with self importance. Quote Gulker "Instead of barricades and demonstrations, we have Weblogs and P2P ... we're the same people who did the actual work that resulted in the greatest legal creation of wealth in history. And we have our eye on next year...

    If blogging is to live up to the hype its being built up to be it will need to get over itself and create institutions for critical peer review. Its pretty clear that the current ones like /., k5, metafilter are not up to the task.
  • You may want to check the blog of The Homeless Guy [blogspot.com].
  • It isn't just "bloggers" - it's more like "people who don't know anything better to do with the internet"
  • by mako ( 30489 ) on Saturday December 21, 2002 @10:27PM (#4938795)
    Correlation found between masturbation and lack of a girlfriend. News at 11:00!
  • by endquotedotcom ( 557632 ) on Saturday December 21, 2002 @10:36PM (#4938836) Homepage
    I had a job interview this week, and when my future boss came into the room, she said "I feel like I know you already! I've been reading your blog [endquote.com] all day!" I had linked it from my professional site [asterisk.nu] but I wouldn't have if I felt I had enough good examples of work without it.

    They ended up hiring me anyway, but it was really strange to be on that kind of unequal footing.

  • It'd also be interesting to see if there's a correlation between having a SHITTY ECONOMY and the rise of unemployment in fields who have MORE WORKERS THAN THERE IS DEMAND. But surely that's not possible. Blogging must be the cause. Read: Correlation Not: Causal relationship Correlations are useful outside of determining whether or not one trend directly results in another because it is an underlying cause. An example: there is a strong correlation between shoe size and height, so shoe size might be a decent predictor of height. It doesn't mean that because someone has big feet, they're also tall. They have big feet and are tall because of their genes, environment, childhood diet, lack of osteoperosis, whatever. In the world of economics, correlations are used as what are called "leading" and "lagging" indicators. Leading indicators are especially useful because, whether or not there's a causal relationship or not, you can often use them to predict what might happen with the economy next. There are some questions which really don't deserve any attention, though. I really don't see much, if any, scientific value in this. Now, if you'll excuse me, I'm going to go drop a blog in the toilet.
  • by Farang ( 552254 ) on Saturday December 21, 2002 @11:17PM (#4939012)
    ...when I read about the legal problems bloggers can get into, my reaction is to assert even more strongly that freedom of speech should be absolute. The current judicial system is a means of intimidation used by bullies who want to prevent communication. If there were no such thing as libel, everyone would know that just because something is in print (in any sense), it cannot be automatically trusted. Let people say whatever they want, in other words; the negative impact of negative statements, including outright lies, varies inversely with the degree of freedom of speech. A radical approach, certainly, but if we all lived under a system that refused to make any utterance or expression legally actionable, our assumptions about information would be different. Today we tend to believe what we read; that is foolish, and the legal system encourages that foolishness.

    I also wonder: who bothers to read the babble of all these bloggers? Who has the time, or the lack of discrimination required, to give bloggers any attention? I look at /. for news, and sometimes the comments contain interesting things, but I can't quite imagine seeking weblogs to read, or wasting eyesight on them.

    It sometimes seems to me that we live in a society that communicates both too little and too much. It's a matter of quality, in other words, and that involves taste and discrimination. My limited contact with some very clever people on the net has led me to constuct a (very unfair and inaccurate) stereotype: a hacker, and especially a young hacker, is remarkably skilled in a narrow, arcane field, and almost totally ignorant outside it. The older ones who have already had a decent education and a real life don't fit the stereotype very well. Yes, I know that's not always true, but...hackers have left me feeling that I am dealing with people who utterly lack the information that should be conveyed in a solid liberal education. We are living on different planets, and our fundamental assumptions and core information do not mesh well at all. So...if (I said "if"!)most blogs are constructed by narrowly informed and partially-formed people, the reasons for reading blogs must be few indeed.

    Yes, all of the above means that I would be unlikely to read my own comment, and very unlikely to believe it. -- Happy holidays to everyone anyway. Grumble, grumble....
  • Indirect Correlation (Score:2, Informative)

    by slipkid ( 442316 )
    I used to blog all the time when I was employed. Now that I no longer have a job, I hardly ever feel like it anymore.

    Does that make me a rebel?
  • Not blogging. Americans being fired from their own companies replaced by foreigners. I am not talking about immigrants, people who want to make a life in the United States, but FOREIGN WORKERS. Hell, with the L-1, they don't even need to worry about H1-B quotas.

    I laugh at these numbskulls who think their "skillz" and "contribution to ze company" will let them keep their jobs. Your time is coming, and I feel bad for you because I was right there with ya. Look at your managers - skills DON'T MEAN SHIT. How much you cost is what they are looking at now. And it is pretty hard to rate against third world nations.

    I know of companies that are PROFITABLE who are shedding american jobs, replaced by or keeping foreign workers.

    IT jobs are going the way of steel, auto, textile, and most manufacturing jobs. The decay has reached upwards into our eco-social system.

    California has a budget problem - why? Over 60% of the taxes are paid for by 10% of the taxpayers. What has happened to those high paying jobs? Shipped overseas. Those salaries and consultant level hourly wages are GONE man. And those stupid idiots in Sacremento want to raise even more taxes?!?!

    Silicon Valley has a 40% office vacancy rate. This place is done, man. It's nearly half empty. I am seeing more and more graffitti and boards. It ain't coming back like it was. It is full of indians and chinese people - English is barely spoken here. That is the future of IT - better re-train into Bio-Tech cuz the money ain't in IT anymore - irregardless what those ITAA fools say about jobs.
  • My experience... (Score:2, Insightful)

    by Fortyseven ( 240736 )
    I used to write in mine a lot. And I was unemployed. And then back in June I started working for SBC, and now I write in it once every couple weeks, if that. So in my case, there's a direct relation.
  • I don't think so ... (Score:3, Interesting)

    by beanerspace ( 443710 ) on Sunday December 22, 2002 @12:06AM (#4939185) Homepage
    What type of metrics did the writer of the article use to assert the correlation between blogging and unemployement.

    I run blogs4God.com [blogs4god.com] - a portal of almost 500 bloggers - as well as a blog itself. There are no more or less unemployed from that segment than there are in my neighborhood.

    Sounds a bit contrived - but whatta I know?
  • Some random possibilities:
    1. Blog excessively at work, get fired.
    2. Work is slow, blog in spare time, both excuse for layoff.
    3. Offensive or anti-employer blog, excuse for firing.
    4. Already unemployed, bored, bogged down, blog.
    5. Blog, post email address, receive spam, become unproductive from said spam, get fired.
    6. Good technology worker, keeps up to date with slashdot blogs, has karma envy, must blog or feel inadequate, affects his performance at work, gets fired.
    7. Blogging coder uses his own product, gets hooked, no time to create or deliver future merchandise, loses job
    8. Bloggers criticize entrenched powers, who give them a bad name through big media, leading to negative view of bloggers, leading to layoffs for blogging.
    9. The typical 50% random correlation between completely unrelated concepts such as unemployment and blogging, which many interpret falsely as a trend.
    10. The above is a typical blog rant. BLOGGING GUARANTEES UNEMPLOYMENT! Anyone want to hire me? Prove me wrong, please.
  • Google stats (Score:2, Interesting)

    by Anonymous Coward
    Here are the google results:

    blog: 2,960,000
    my blog: 188,000
    blog unemployment: 10,500
    blog unemployed: 11,200
    blog "job interview": 3,770
    blog "wearing a tie": 205
    blog "wish i had a job": 100
    blog "i love being unemployed": 9

    Make up your own mind! :)
  • People have too much time on their hands due to unemployment? What a crock! What I want to know is why there haven't been any new articles posted to Slashdot for over five minutes!!
  • And in other news blogging is the newest in meal replacements. It completed replaces your need to eat.

    The only side effects are that you will feel blogged. - Somebody had to say that :)
  • by Artifex ( 18308 ) on Sunday December 22, 2002 @02:34AM (#4939588) Journal
    A number of people who weblog are introverts in person, and that's the real issue. In a lot of work environments, getting ahead (or keeping your job) actually has a lot to do with how well you socialize with others at work, and not just how well you do the stated tasks of the job.

    Seriously. It's not something to complain about, it's the unwritten rule: you have to play well with others. Most people, if they have to choose between promoting (or keeping) one of two equally qualified people, will keep the person they feel most comfortable and at ease with.

    This is also true when people are asked to recommend others. You don't think about the guy in the cubicle next to you who only talks to you when he wants to show off something he downloaded or wrote, you think about the girl across from you who always asks how you're doing, shows you the new piercing she just got, and hopefully invites you to her next party. Sure, he may actually be a better coder or better at fixing customer issues, but that girl's pretty friendly...

    There are books on "Networking Essentials." But the ones in the career section of the bookstore are as useful as the ones in the computer section, know what I mean?
  • I started blogging [www.sfu.ca] after I was unemployed.

    So does blogging cause unemployment, or is blogging an outlet after you've been unemployed?

    Btw, check out my blog [www.sfu.ca]. It makes me feel special. Especially if you have a job for a dude that has 4+ years of C++ experience and 2+ years of OpenGL. Not to mention other stuff in my CV [www.sfu.ca].

  • by HealYourChurchWebSit ( 615198 ) on Sunday December 22, 2002 @06:33AM (#4939929) Homepage
    Obviously Andrew Sullivan [instapundit.com] is the exception, no the rule. But how likely is it that a community of unemployed could muster $80,000 in donations during Mr. Sullivan's recent pledge week?

    What about blogs run by authors of books, or people running little companies, churches, and other entities using the blog format to get their information out w/out having to <html> and FTP their brains out?

    I want to see some hard numbers before I believe there is a correlation.

  • by swankypimp ( 542486 ) on Sunday December 22, 2002 @06:56AM (#4939971) Homepage
    Most of the popular blogs deal with politics and current events, and are created by lawyers [instapundit.com] or professional writers [lileks.com], not techies. The Silicon Valley connection seems to relate more to blogs that descend from the E/N webpages that were popular a few years back.

    E/N stood for Everything and Nothing, a "timewaster" page about silly news articles, bizarre Flash movies from Japan, and other amusing stuff the author finds on the web, plus commentary and rants that put them in context. badassmofo.com [badassmofo.com] is a good example, as he's a tech worker who has time to kill scrounging the 'Net. His page used to be considered E/N a few years back, but now would be thought of as a blog.

  • Well DUH, WTF else did I have to during my 39 weeks off? You think I was going to wade through the billion bullshit postings filled with disjointed acronyms and technologies that don't go together?

    A favorite. I saved it.

    "Must know Exchange 2000 on Solaris 8."

    What? And when I asked that question on the phone after tracking them down like the fugitives they were the HR troll said:

    "If you're not qualified why did you call?"

  • You've got to wonder if the traditional media feels threatened by the blog phenommena?

    I mean 2 somewhat negative stories in 2 days is a bit much.

    Sort of reminds me of the papers after the "shiney! new!" take on the web wore off and increasing numbers of people were web surfing instead of watching TV or reading the papers. There were a whole bunch of "evils of the web" stories back then as well.

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