Microsoft to Launch MSN Music Service in 2004 361
securitas writes "SmartMoney.com reports that a Microsoft spokeswoman confirmed plans to launch an online music download service in 2004 via the MSN Web site. The story was first reported in the Wall Street Journal (paid subscription required). Microsoft may undercut the per-song prices of competitors Apple iTunes and Roxio Napster. A reliable source is cited as saying that Microsoft has been in talks with major music companies and a post for a senior-level marketing position for the service was added to Microsoft's recruiting site last week. Observers expect that the company will use Windows or the bundled Windows Media Player to gain a competitive advantage over other services that require a software download to use them. Interestingly, in this May 2003 analysis piece about Apple's iTunes Microsoft denied any plans to launch a music download service. More at CNet."
When... (Score:3, Funny)
Any bets? (Score:4, Funny)
Re:Any bets? (Score:2, Interesting)
Note: I have i
And should there be a bug/crash.. (Score:2)
Re:And should there be a bug/crash.. (Score:2)
Re:And should there be a bug/crash.. (Score:2)
without extra fees for them. not sure about the extra fees for _you_ though.
Re:Any bets? (Score:3, Funny)
Re:Any bets? (Score:4, Insightful)
Re:Any bets? (Score:3, Informative)
That is not what happened. A beta version of Windows 3.1 popped up an error message (Note: Not a crash, simply an error message that you okay to get through.) that said you're not running MS-DOS. This did not appear in the commercial version of Windows 3.1.
Monopoly conspiracies aside, there is a legitimate reason for said message to exist: Microsoft can't fix Dr Dos if it's broken.
Microsoft may or may not hav
Using bundled software for monopolistic advantage? (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Using bundled software for monopolistic advanta (Score:5, Insightful)
Of course, they may well have a strategy to gradually extend the features available to Windows Music Shop users, while restricting these to other people - for instance, it may become a lot easier to burn CDs from Windows Music Shop than from iTunes, because of some obscure driver incompatibility that you need a degree in CompSci to unravel. Or it may be possible to play only Windows Music files from within Internet Explorer. I should stop now, before I give too many ideas to the folks at Redmond.
Microsoft are still allowed to compete, as long as they do it fairly. The moment they stop competing fairly, there will be a howl of protest, and the lawyers can start dusting off the terms of the agreement.
Re:Using bundled software for monopolistic advanta (Score:5, Informative)
Re:Using bundled software for monopolistic advanta (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:Using bundled software for monopolistic advanta (Score:3, Informative)
Re:Using bundled software for monopolistic advanta (Score:2, Interesting)
"I don't see how it violates the settlement, unless they prevent Windows users from using other web browsers. As long as you can still view sites using another browser on your computer, there is no
Re:Using bundled software for monopolistic advanta (Score:3, Insightful)
Microsoft should have been brought up on anticompetitive licensing and marketing deals with OEMs. This prevented OEMs from getting an alternative
Re:Using bundled software for monopolistic advanta (Score:2)
You can remove the web browser in KDE. In OS X, no application is integrated to the extent that it's not removable. You can remove QuickTime Player,
and blah blah blah blah (Score:2)
I don't see how this is relevant since people have their own fingers and can easily type the word Tucows, or Download, and get a different broswer to use instead of bitching like it's
Re:Using bundled software for monopolistic advanta (Score:5, Informative)
This would basically represent the exact anti-trust case which they lost. The justice department could just replace all instances of IE with Media Player and resubmit the lawsuit. And just to be consistent, after the DoJ won the case, they would have to roll over and give MS a sweetheart deal.
Re:Using bundled software for monopolistic advanta (Score:2, Insightful)
Frankly, if iTunes can't cut it, or if Napster falls through again, I'd more than happy to be a happy legal consumer through Microsoft. Sure, Micros
Re:Using bundled software for monopolistic advanta (Score:3, Insightful)
Ever notice Office is like hella expensive?
Tom
Re:Using bundled software for monopolistic advanta (Score:2)
Re:marketing strategy? (Score:3, Informative)
For example, once the world market for iPods is saturated, the iTunes model will fail, because there is nothing left to balance out the loss from the music.
On the other hand, with the xBox, there will always be new market for new games, so the xbox can be sold until xbox is saturated. Once the market for xbox is saturated, MS profits will actually rise, because
Re:Using bundled software for monopolistic advanta (Score:3, Insightful)
And Jobs is not going to roll over the way AOL/Time Warner did. We'll finally find out what happens when the irresistable force meets the immovable object.
[Of course, Apple's case will be quite hypocritical, given that MS will be doing in Windows exactly what Apple is doing in OS X; but Apple doesn't have a monopoly, and that's the technicality which will matter...]
IANAL
Apple and Microsoft *different* (Score:3, Insightful)
They don't make iTunes and *integral* part of the OS, the way Internet Explorer is. Even Safari isn't an integral part of the OS; you can if you like delete all the Apps (Mail, iChat, Safari, Internet Explorer, iMovie, iDVD, etc) and use your own (Thunderbird, AIM, Firebird, Mozilla, etc) without affecting the stability or reliability of your system.
With Apple, you can unbundle without any ill effects.
Re:Apple and Microsoft *different* (Score:3, Informative)
Yes and no. It depends on the engine, called WebCore, IIRC, but it does not depend on Safari--Safari itself depends on WebCore, as does (in 10.3) Help and Mail. While this is in that regard akin to QuickTime, from what i've read, it's intended more as just another OS-level service. Do you worry about competition for providers of scroll-bars or combo boxes? Apple fan though i may be, it seems a strain to ascribe any sinister motive to Safari.
Re:Using bundled software for monopolistic advanta (Score:2)
Well, that was a surprise (Score:2)
All that effort put into DRM, and no R to M ? Don't think so...
Simon.
Oh, its better than that. (Score:2)
1st: Deny Plans for new product and or service. Tell everyone that the current players are doing a good job.
2nd: Wait for competitors to invest deeply in new service.
3rd: Deliver knockout blow to unsuspecting and overextended foes by entering market you said you'd stay out of.
Underbid prices (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:Underbid prices (Score:2)
But they're going to have a tough time underbidding allofmp3.com.
Ogg (Score:5, Funny)
Spin? (Score:3, Insightful)
So the existing Windows Media Player will magically work with this new system without any additional downloads?
Re:Spin? (Score:2)
steps, not 12 (Score:5, Insightful)
2. Launch inferior product tied to monoply powered desktop OS.
3. Work to bring service nearly to par while undercutting all competition with illegaly earned war chest.
4. Destroy competitors and cease innovation.
5. PROFIT!
Re:steps, not 12 (Score:2, Insightful)
Re:steps, not 12 (Score:2)
Re:steps, not 12 (Score:3, Insightful)
Internet Explorer before v5 vs Netscape
Excel V1 vs Lotus 1.2.3
Outlook vs. any safe email reader
need I go on?
Re:steps, not 12 (Score:2)
Oh! That's righ! NOONE has developed ANYTHING to compete with MS BOB! Put that in your pipe!
Everyone's jumping on the bandwagon now. (Score:5, Interesting)
If Walmart and Yahoo and Microsoft and "Joe's MP3 Warehouse" are selling music at the same price point, where are the profits coming from? Or is this yet another Internet enterprise that is built on a house of cards?
I hope that all these services offer OPEN standards that can be mixed and matched. For instance, I don't want to buy a song from Walmart that only plays on "Wal-Player" or something.
Whadda ya think sirs?
Re:Everyone's jumping on the bandwagon now. (Score:5, Insightful)
All music will be sold online, almost exclusively, within our lifetime, meaning there will be plenty of space in the market for the right retailers. How many of the "old names" will make the cut, and how many will be opportunistic "new tech" names like MS and Apple?
Here is the friggin answer... (Score:5, Interesting)
I have THE solution, and have said it before. Here it is, I WANT them to implement it, so they are welcome to steal it from me. (hey, just give me a little credit for revitalizing the music industry) :-)
Music stores should have a HUGE database of MP3s/WAVs in the store. I mean every damn song ever recorded.
Every song older than 10 years old is $0.10.
Every song 5-10 years old is $0.25.
Every song 2-5 years old is $0.50
Every song 2 years old to 6 months old is $0.99
Anything newer than 6 months you have to buy on CD. (maybe this could be rolled into the 0.99 if it didn't fly)
1. You have kiosks set up so customers can browse the database, creating their own CDs of songs (either audio, or burned as MP3s - ZERO DRM)
2. They submit the request for the CD to be burned, which is all done behind the counter. (to avoid the customer support nightmare if they did it themselves)
3. While they are waiting for their CD to burn, they can browse the latest CDs, merchandise, etc.
4. They could charge a reasonable fee for the media and the burn. Maybe $2 per CD? Free songlist, but artwork might cost you an extra buck.
Advantages:
It gets people back into the stores! One of the first rules is to get them into the store, and they will spend money.
It isn't online, so you don't have to worry about people hacking in.
It is reasonably priced. Imagine building your favorite songs of the 80s for a few bucks. Those songs are just sitting around not making money anyway.
Maybe there is an online service where you can build your CD and submit your request, and you can go in and pick up your CD, or have it shipped to you.
They could list other people's CD compilations. Maybe have a voting system, so you could see the top 10 compilations.
Future: DVD burns of videos, concert footage, interviews, Behind the Music, etc.
Make record stores a cool place to visit again! Give people the music they want at a reasonable price, and you will be rewarded. Am I the only one who sees this?
Re:Everyone's jumping on the bandwagon now. (Score:3, Informative)
"Um, I'm going to have to go ahead and disagree with you there, yeah."
Maybe it's approaching saturation in South Korea, but there's still a LOT of room to grow in the US (which *IS* the locale we're talking about here, right?).
The US is still something like *5th* in the world in per-capita broadband access -- behind South Korea, Japan, Canada (and, if 5th is right, a player to be named later because I can't remember who it is).
Xentax
Re:Everyone's jumping on the bandwagon now. (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:Everyone's jumping on the bandwagon now. (Score:2, Informative)
Re: (Score:3, Informative)
They won't make a profit. Deja'vu (Score:5, Interesting)
1. Tie users into their DRM. Plain and simple.
2. Tie users to their media player which will be restricted to their DRM.
Number 2 kills the following companies on the Win platform: Real, MusicMatch, BuyMusic, Napster and even iTunes so long as iPod sales for Windows drop off. iTunes will still exist for the Mac tho.
Cringley's [pbs.org] latest article has some excellent points on M$' whole DRM, platform agenda and why they lose money in most of their non-Office and non-OS ventures.
Frankly, this smacks of the same shit that happened a few years back with the browser wars. M$ sees threat, launches their money losing alternative. Then bundles it, forces relevant M$ apps to use it, and then breaks compatibility. And thanks to huge lock on the desktop - along with, really, apathy on the developer and user base - presto, competition eliminated and monopoly suceeded.
With their media player, a similar thing will happen. But instead of breaking standards, M$ will force their propreitary format on everyone who wants to use their player, thusly creating the artifical standard. Deja'vu all over again.
I really hope the EU kicks their ass on this front and them releasing a music (then video, I'm sure) service could potentially add more fuel to the fire. These guys (M$) are due a good ass kickin. We don't need their vision of computing nor their abuses. The real world does not have just one car maker or one company who builds all the houses everywhere, or even one company who makes a variety of cd players. The software world should be no different.
One reason I can deal with Apple's DRM is because I can take the songs, burn them to a cd and then rip them back in. I still have very good quality, but the songs are not restricted and in a more widely usuable format - mp3. And in the end, compatibility with all my machines is the gold standard of which I try to live by. It's hard, long road, but not an impossible one.
Re:Everyone's jumping on the bandwagon now. (Score:2)
Imagine if someone like iTunes starts getting big enough that people go there for music like they go to a record shop - you can start getting "featured artists" - and iTunes do the promotion directly with the artists or small record labels.
Re:Everyone's jumping on the bandwagon now. (Score:2)
Gross, not net. Arguably, MS is in a position, with its existing online operations and XBOX Live NOC, to eventually ramp into a net profit faster/more easily than its competitors.
much like X-box-- but why? (Score:5, Interesting)
Given that the X-Box was rumored to cost Microsoft money for each box sold-- money they hoped to make up in software, it's not as clear how this will work for songs. Songs won't drive sales of Microsoft OS. That's the hazard of being a near-monopoly: everyone either has you, or already doesn't want you.
So how will they profit? Microsoft doesn't have a history of raising prices after driving off competitors; they're usually content to just rule marketshare and continue sales as usual. But they do have a tendency to use their clout to cut others out in deals.
So, prediction: Microsoft gains leverage in the market, then starts to cut deals with music companies saying "you only sell through us, not Apple or anyone else". Overall goal: ensure Windows Media Format (and DRM) become the standards, thus ensuring Windows is seen as the only OS for doing music.
Hazard: Apple already has a good media lock, so they won't be able to be un-entrenched in this.
Prediction: hell if I know.
This is a good thing! (Score:4, Insightful)
This is a even better thing! (Score:3, Informative)
Well, since WalMart has a revenue stream 10x that of Microsoft's and makes a higher quarterly profit than MS, not to mention the fact that the have a pre-existing relationship with the labels, they should be able to get an even better deal from the record companies. That means they'll be able to undercut whatever Microsoft tries to establish as a new price point.
Re:much like X-box-- but why? (Score:2)
Microsoft doesn't have a history of raising prices after driving off competitors; they're usually content to just rule marketshare and continue sales as usual. But they do have a tendency to use their clout to cut others out in deals.
Are you nuts? If MS didn't raise their prices you could still get Office and Windows for $25/each (plus inflation over the last 10 years, which is not 2000%)
Re:much like X-box-- but why? (Score:2)
CJC
Re:much like X-box-- but why? (Score:2)
>Is this based on your belief that 99c of raw materials goes into a piece of music
Err... no, it's Apple's quote that, after paying fees to the music distribution companies and handling their own costs of business, they are barely breaking even.
If you happen to actually, you know, _study_ economics you'll find out things have something called 'cost' that go beyond raw materials.
Microsoft may drive the cost down through deals, but the recording industry is notorious for wanting to maintain their pro
Long time ago... (Score:2, Interesting)
It's half way through November. May was eons ago in IT speak.
How important is iTunes to Microsoft? (Score:3, Insightful)
I would imagine that Apples longterm plan is in 6 months or a year to renogiate the contracts, pointing out how much more succesful it was then predicted, and start making money then.
Aside from that I am left with a question, how exactly is Microsoft expecting to turn a profit from this venture?
Sure they can undercut Apple, but what will that gain them?
Microsoft has no iPod like device to sell.
I don't know, if I was Bill 'Money' Gates I would be tempted to give this particular market to Apple.
Re:How important is iTunes to Microsoft? (Score:2)
Microsoft might not have an iPod, but they do have one ace up their sleeve that I am pretty sure they will unleash in the future.
It most likely will be Windows - Media Centre Edition...
They have had little success in pushing this product, which basically is nothing more than a software package designed to run on dedicated hardware. If they setup their music to be playable using this, and then license said OS to device manufacturers, they could rake in some cash.
Early Thoughts... (Score:2, Insightful)
Re:Early Thoughts... (Score:2, Informative)
AAC is MPEG4 which is a standard.
Let me see if I've got this right... (Score:5, Insightful)
Now we're in for it. I can imagine the DRM attached to an MSN music service would the most restrictive yet, allowing only one copy of each file downloaded on one PC, ever. The real run happens when the clueless user installs the latest security patch, only to find that none of their music works, and reads the fine print to discover that a PC is defined as "the unique collection of hardware, software, and specific Windows version that exists at the time of each music download". Don't like it? Well, if you had never stolen that music and put J.Lo out on the streets, this never would have happened, Bobby. Now, pony up for another copy of that track and we'll call it even, and might not even send Lars and Mungo to your house for a visit...say, would you like to buy a Longhorn upgrade?
Re:Let me see if I've got this right... (Score:2)
Blockquoth the poster:
92 cents below the lowest octave of E-flat.
Re:Let me see if I've got this right... (Score:2)
Deja Vu (Score:3, Insightful)
Aha, now I understand (Score:5, Insightful)
It's not that MS is necessarily killing competitors with each little feature, its more the way they use each toe hold to push forward into the next market and the next market and so on. Even if they were the worlds best and nicest software producer I think this kind of monopolistic action is extremely dangerous.
1984 arrives at long last and we discover that it isn't the government watching us, but Bill Gates...
Undercutting *AA ? (Score:2)
Microsoft don't want to have friends in the business ?
Re:Undercutting *AA ? (Score:2)
Perhaps they think that they're big enough and powerful enough on their own to not need friends in the business. After all, why split profits with others, if you can take them all for yourself?
Europe? (Score:2, Interesting)
Re:Europe? (Score:3, Informative)
The important questions from all Europeans: When will we be able to use it?
My guess is: never. The EU is already investigating Microsoft for anti-trust violations, has apparently taken a rather dimmer view of their behavior than the DOJ in the US, and has specifically mentioned the bundled Microsoft media player as infringing.
My guess is that the EU will require Microsoft to unbundle the media player for the European market, at least; I suppose that it would still be available as a download, but I ca
Re:Europe? (Score:2)
I really doubt they would do that. It's not like the market for music will disappear just because Microsoft isn't it in.
Windows needed some more filler (Score:2)
Well, here we go again. (Score:5, Insightful)
Once again, Microsoft is late to the game. Apple started it this time with iTunes (where it was Netscape with the web browser). Initially, Bill and MS were reluctant to get on the bandwagon with the Internet. Then, it started to leave without them. They smell money and take off after it. "Well, we'll just give our browser away for free and because it's installed by default, why would anyone pay for Netscape?" Of course many "average" users didn't blink and eye used IE and Netscape died.
Are we going to have the online music wars now? MS, again late to the party says, "Well, we've got Media player already installed by default and it's free. Now all we have to do is undercut everyone else on the prices of singles and albums and we'll own the market. If anyone matches our prices, heck, we've got so much money in the bank, we'll just give the music away. We'll also slip some DRM in and make our compression technology proprietary. Customers will love us for free music and the RIAA will love us for DRM."
Nahhh, Microsoft is definitely not a monopoly.
Re:Well, here we go again. (Score:3, Interesting)
Who would've thunk I'd stand up against some good, old-fashioned Microsoft bashing?
If you look at the facts, Microsoft hasn't been able to replicate its "success" with IE in any other arena. Look at mobile phones, where Microsoft has been dumping cash hand over fist and hasn't even made a dent. Look at PDAs, another area where Microsoft has been gushing cash. The largest Microsoft-based competitor to Palm (the iPaq) has less than half of Palm's
Maybe they can meet consumer demand. (Score:3, Insightful)
However since they push the WMA DRM'ed format, I doubt it.
They can sell bottled water by advertising it's quality over the run of the mill tap water.
Who will sell high quality MP3's that are better than lawsuit vunerable internet MP3's?
It makes as much sense as selling 8 track tapes because nobody has the stuff to copy them. It's high cost, not compatible with current generation devices (sure you need to buy new portable devices and in-dash units yada-yada NOT!) just to keep away from a de-facto standard format. Who can't play MP3's? Heck even my DVD player in the living room will play MP3's. There is no other format that will play in my car, portable, living room, etc.
Too bad the industry is bent on not meeting the consumer demand.
MSN Music Club (Score:5, Informative)
BTW, due to an interesting set of circumstances, you can download Tubular Bells parts (sides) 1 and 2 as one 99p track each, or the whole album for 7.99! (assuming 1 credit=1p; this can vary)
On a more serious note than 1,2, profit... (Score:5, Interesting)
It is odd that such a 'technology leader' is always second (or later) to market. I guess they have to rely on the true innovators to show them the path to money. "Your potential, Our passion?" finally makes sense now, as long as our potential is the one to create new markets for them to dominate.
Just remember, if you are in the software industry, every dime you spend on Office/Windows/... is a dime our passionate friends will use to take your market away once it becomes lucrative enough to pursue.
Re:On a more serious note than 1,2, profit... (Score:2)
I actually feel more sorry for the non-Apple competitors in this arena.
Tough shit. Why? You said it yourself: They're largely tied into the WMA and Redmond OS and have alread surrendered their souls to the new comptetitor.
Nobody held a gun to their head and forced them to make that choice. Microsoft lied to them about thier intentions, but frankly, that's not surprising behavior. A third-party company ties itself to Microsoft technology in a market that Microsoft itself may be interested in compet
D'uh! (Score:2)
No, that's not odd at all! Thats shrewd. Let other people pave the way, then devise a best-of-breed from what's out there, and make a minor improvement. For example, the consumer electronics adage- that America made it first, and Japan made it smaller. Witness the transistor radio [ce.org].
The real issue being, can Microsoft get a best of breed produ
only one year behind? (Score:3, Interesting)
Of course, they may have already purchased someone else's software to make this happen. I can't imagine whose. It seems like all the major players have already been purchased by other major players.
In any case, Walmart seems to be trying to launch it's music service in time for christmas. It is hard to see MS competing with this, especially given that MS has, as of now, no product and no significant relationship with the labels. Even if MS controls the front end and DRM, It would require a massive amount of shenanigans to catch up. They might be able to succeed in the EU, but MS seems to be having a number of difficulties there, and may not ship a music enable Windows after the new year.
and the crystal ball award goes to... (Score:2)
oooooh, Sinergy! More waste. (Score:2)
M$ has even less going for it than AOL did. That merger between a huge new media company and an old one failed. The old one keeps it's content locked up regardless of it's own new best interest. Time Warner STILL only squezes it's content out through the tightest of bungholes at $1.00/pop-tune. Apple makes no money from the music itself. Do y
Apple Provides Integrated Music Experience (Score:2)
Apple is out to sell iPods. Microsoft and all other companies that get into selling music online will see nothing but losses because they, nor Apple, receive any significant funds in selling mu
couple thoughts (Score:4, Interesting)
MS has nothing to do with anything until someone else has already made a ton of money in a given market segment (think Xbox after Playstation, game peripherals after Thrustmaster, IE after Netscape, and even the graphical OS after the debut of the Mac). So it's not surprising that they want a piece of the music store pie at this point in time, after others have already spent lots of money figuring out what works for the consumer and what doesn't. It's like free R&D and user testing.
My only question is how MS is going to make money from this by charging less per song, if even Apple is only breaking even on iTMS. A monthly subscription fee maybe? Who knows, we'll have to wait and see.
Why is it interesting? (Score:2)
Why exactly is that interesting to you? The denial was in May. That's six months ago. I'm guessing they weren't ready to announce it at that time. Even if they were out and out lying and they had plans to launch a service but they told CNET they weren't, that's still not that interesting. Stop trying to nitpick and find a scandal in everything MS does.
Spread Thin. (Score:2)
Goddammit! (Score:4, Interesting)
Re:Goddammit! (Score:2)
That is why they fail miserably.
I have 3 mp3 players (portable) my car stereo, my 2 audiotron players here. NONE of which play any DRM crippled media... oh let's not forget the DVD player that play's mp3's...
All these companies absolutely despise mp3 files because there is NO WAY to force DRM into it. Well the cat is out of the bag as there are millions of hardware mp3 players out there and consumers WANT mp
Extremely Risky (Score:4, Interesting)
Royalties under this scheme (Score:5, Interesting)
I can tell you that these types of services are beginning to bring some interesting problems to the record companies, namely what royalties are paid to the artist. In the actual recording contracts, royalties are VERY specific and their definition is not very open ended. This mainly helps the recording company by taking certain monies from royalties and helps avoid confusion. And then something like music downloading comes along, which simply does not fit into ANY of the pre-determined categories in the royalties contract. And believe me, there are many specifically defined categories. This is especially true for some older contracts, where music downloading was not really a viable option. In those instances, it's attempting to fit the square peg in a round hole.
On a side note, the RIAA members may have resisted this, for this specific reason. Royalties are obviously huge for the RIAA members and attempting to pay royalties on a category that does not fit into the recording contract is problematic, to say the least.
Either way, it's simply food for thought.
Finally ... FREE MUSIC!!! (Score:2, Funny)
I wonder if the record label executives know that ROT13 is not exactly a new break through in cryptography.
I thought competition was a good thing (Score:2)
2. MS delivers a good product (large selection, minimal DRM, smaller price). The consumer wins.
What exactly is the problem here?
Yes, they could try to leverage current WMP installations, but if the product they are selling is fundamentally flawed (as compared to iTunes, for instance) then it will fail.
Or is the
I say bring it on. They have some large competition
Oh, that Microsoft!! (Score:3, Funny)
Always a step ahead. Always innovating!!
Tell me something I don't know (Score:2)
As long as water is wet, this statement will always evaluate to true. Why does this even have to be stated any more? Can we mod the post to -1 Redundant?
Locking the customers out (Score:3, Interesting)
In other words I won't be buying music from Microsoft because I can't use their wares (since WMP won't run on my system). I can't say I'm terribly upset by that, as long as other vendors still exist.
Opportunities... (Score:3, Insightful)
Right now the artist and consumer are the ones squeezed out. The cost of a CD is almost nothing to produce, it is all the money the music companies spend on advertising, high paid executives, buying time on MTV, etc. that drive costs up. The artists make very little of it.
But there could be room for a music company that eliminates a lot of the overhead and uses creative methods to advertise and distribute it's product. Possibly free or low-cost downloads of new material to get customers to try a new artist, etc. Most of the music companies big cash flow is in the younger music market. Getting kiddies to buy a Britney Spears album, etc. But as you get into the college ages people start to get inputs from new sources like student radio, etc.
The big music companies will jump on the MS bandwagon because of the massive size of the captive Windows market (the sheep) and because MS will guarantee them their artificially high prices. But if artists have a different avenue to take that gives them more control over their creative efforts and a better share of the profits they may be willing to take that route.
The music companies will continue to pump huge money into "last years thing" - think Sony paying Michael Jackson to basically produce nothing for them. Much of these losses will be hidden because the music companies are part of larger corporations that span many markets.
But over time free market economics would get them. That is if our goverment lets them. Efforts like the DCMA can try to stop this, but in the end I don't think it can. While there may be a law that says it is illegal to sell computer equipment that circumvents copy-protection, there is nothing that say an artist or a new music/media company is forced to release their material in proprietary copy-protected format like Windows media.
One way the big companies and MS will try to stop this is with "subscriptions". The spreadsheet MBA boys love a constant cash flow. Think cable TV. Think MS software licensing. They want that continued consistent cash flow. That is why MS formed MSN. They saw what AOL was making. So they will try to convince people to pay a monthly fee to download and listen to music. It will be like the cell phone companies. You will get so many minutes of music a month for a certain price. And you will probably pay a premium for going over a limit.
This could lead to some competition for the subscription market, just like there is in the cell phone business. But I think it may end up like cable TV. You will pay an artificially high price for a "package" deal that includes all kinds of music you don't want. Think the Home Shopping Channel, etc on cable. They will make the costs of buying just the songs you want high enough that many people will just "take the package" and accept it. Think of all the people who are up to their ears in credit card debt and just get by paying the monthly minimums. As long as they can go along with what society tells them they should be, they will pay their little montly charge to "be happy".
In the end the dinosaurs will go extent. MS may continue it's reign a while longer, but I think they are just stringing things out. There are opportunities available for success that lie somewhere between totally free or pirated, and over-priced and controlled.
IMHO.
Valoo !
Typo correction (Score:3, Insightful)
I think you meant "to gain an anti-competitive advantage
That's what tie-ins with the OS are all about, y'know.
The Crucial question (Score:3, Insightful)
So my question, which is: which online stores besides iTuines, support one-click burning to CD-R? These are the only viable competitors. (possbile exception: if most of the*cheap* CD players suppport "some other format," than a competitor may be able to survive on that. )
Steve understands that all comes down to: "Rip. Mix. Burn."
Does Bill?
No, that comes later.. (Score:2)
That comes ten years down the line when MSN Music users find that the forty two page licence agreement included a line giving Microsoft the right to centrally archive all biometric data on their subscribers. Just in case the RIAA want it..
Re:Still (Score:2, Insightful)
Just use Mozilla and Leech.
Re:Still (Score:2)