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Music Media

MP3 Going the Way of the 8-Track? 574

joepa writes "According to this MSN/ZDNet story, MP3 is dying. Overall, the data has not shown a clear trend, but at least one recent study reports that people are deleting MP3s faster than they are downloading them. AAC and WMA, meanwhile, are apparently gaining market share. Is this evidence that MP3 is being used largely to sample music rather than for permanent archival and listening purposes? They still don't think so. "
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MP3 Going the Way of the 8-Track?

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  • Uh no (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Anonymous Coward on Thursday October 21, 2004 @12:04PM (#10588963)
    People just realize that when they need disk space, it's easier to delete mp3s because they can get them again anytime they want freely. The same can't be said for most WMA and AAC files which cost money. Once they're gone, you probably have to pay again. I know I didn't archive my music collection in mp3, though. I chose Ogg Vorbis, and may people choose something like FLAC.
    • Re:Uh no (Score:5, Insightful)

      by Anonymous Coward on Thursday October 21, 2004 @12:10PM (#10589090)
      i bet they never considered that they could have been recoreded to CD-R before they were deleted to recover disk space as you say :^)
    • Re:Uh no (Score:5, Funny)

      by EvilTwinSkippy ( 112490 ) <yoda@nOSpAM.etoyoc.com> on Thursday October 21, 2004 @12:18PM (#10589225) Homepage Journal
      You also have organizations, like the one I work for (but will remain nameless), where we get sick of people clogging the RAID with pirated music files and issue a crackdown.

      Marketing data, that we can archive. 2 Live Crew's greatest hits, rm -rf *. If someone wants to back up their music on tape, I recommend casette

    • Re:Uh no (Score:3, Insightful)

      I haven't encoded to mp3 for years. All my CDs are ripped to high-bitrate Ogg Vorbis format, it sounds better than mp3 and Ogg has no silly patent issues. MSN says WMA is gaining marketshare? Doesn't Micros~1 wish..

      • Re:Uh no (Score:5, Insightful)

        by badasscat ( 563442 ) <basscadet75NO@SPAMyahoo.com> on Thursday October 21, 2004 @04:51PM (#10592726)
        I haven't encoded to mp3 for years. All my CDs are ripped to high-bitrate Ogg Vorbis format, it sounds better than mp3 and Ogg has no silly patent issues.

        Eh, I took one of those double-blind listening tests and I couldn't tell the difference. All the codecs sounded good to me and I usually consider myself pretty anal about these things. Almost half the time I couldn't even pick out which was the original and which was the compressed version, in any format (sometimes it was obvious, but sometimes not).

        I don't think Vorbis' tiny advantage in sound quality (which would be easily overcome just by using a higher bit rate) outweighs MP3's standardization. I mean argue all you want about open-source, about patents or whatever, I'm talking about practical usage here. I can buy any device out there - even Sony, soon - and know that it plays MP3 files. I don't know why you'd use anything else given how close most of these codecs are to each other.

        There are some serious flaws in these results showing a drop on mp3 use, many of which have already been pointed out. The biggest one to me, though, is that mp3's are just far more portable. Download a wma file and what the heck are most people going to do with it? Pretty much your only choice is to keep it on the one machine you've downloaded it onto, unless you strip the DRM or unless you've got one of the six portable players that supports it.

        I have four PC's in my house and I have all of my music on two of them and a lot of my music on a third. That's using mp3. So sure, at some point if I want my disk space back I may delete a few off one of my hard drives. That doesn't mean I'm using mp3 less, that just means the format has given me the freedom to choose where I want to have my music and when I want to have it on a particular device.

        If there's any decline in the total number of mp3's on hard drives, it's probably people like me who have ripped their entire collection from CD, thrown the resulting files on pretty much every PC and portable device they own and are now consolidating. There was that initial rush to rip everything once mp3 became popular, and now that's pretty much done. It's a natural process. But there's no way anybody's using mp3 any less than they were, and that in no way suggests that mp3's are more disposable. I'll take my pristine and clean 320kbps VBR mp3 files over Apple's ridiculous DRM-encrusted 128k AAC files any day of the week!
  • Other Formats? (Score:3, Informative)

    by sp00 ( 639381 ) on Thursday October 21, 2004 @12:04PM (#10588969)
    What about OGG [vorbis.com]?
    • Re:Other Formats? (Score:2, Insightful)

      by jxyama ( 821091 )
      i doubt ogg vorbis is relevant in these statistics. iTMS is selling 4 million tracks a week. and those are paid for so people won't discard them as easily as illegal downloads.

      can you think of a way music tracks on the order of millions are encoded every week in ogg vorbis?

      • Re:Other Formats? (Score:5, Informative)

        by hackwrench ( 573697 ) <hackwrench@hotmail.com> on Thursday October 21, 2004 @12:43PM (#10589616) Homepage Journal
        Not all free downloads are illegal, thank you very much!
    • Re:Other Formats? (Score:2, Insightful)

      by Quickfry ( 799118 )
      In all honesty, it seems that only nerds use the ogg vorbis codec, despite it being technically superior.

      You can search on a P2P network, and rarely see OGG files. It's sad, but true.
      • Re:Other Formats? (Score:3, Insightful)

        by numark ( 577503 )
        "Technically superior" doesn't mean anything when compared to the common standard of "good enough." Putting aside the issue of whether Ogg is even superior at all, unless there's a very good reason to switch to Ogg, most people will stick with the more standard MP3. Since MP3 files sound and work good enough for the vast majority of people, and they can be played on virtually any music player, there's no incentive for people to switch. Debate all you want over such droll things as patent issues, bitrates, e
    • by WndrBr3d ( 219963 ) on Thursday October 21, 2004 @12:20PM (#10589254) Homepage Journal
      You forgot Poland :-(
    • Re:Other Formats? (Score:5, Informative)

      by arivanov ( 12034 ) on Thursday October 21, 2004 @12:21PM (#10589270) Homepage
      Major problem - no OGG car devices available whatsof***ever and while many ./ readers can DIY 99.9% of the population cant or will not. If I had an option to buy I would not have looked at doing it either. At the same time every major car audio player has an MP3 device (some real, some with conversion to something else in the PC software).

      This is a shame as OGG is a much better format. I can distinguish MP3 immediately even if it is encoded at 192. It has a nasty distortion in the high frequency range that makes dogs breakfast of any good electric guitar. Disclaimer - my hearing is better then the average for 99.9 people of the same age and I have worked on an MP3 implementation so I have listened to it until puking for several weeks.

  • evidence? (Score:3, Funny)

    by Anonymous Coward on Thursday October 21, 2004 @12:05PM (#10588978)
    "Is this evidence that MP3 is being used largely to sample music rather than for permanent archival and listening purposes?"

    Is this statement evidence that someone's trying to justify illegal activity? Maybe you should try the ol' trusty "Your honor, she was asking for it! You should have seen the way that MP3 was dressed."
  • Ok (Score:5, Insightful)

    by paranode ( 671698 ) on Thursday October 21, 2004 @12:05PM (#10588979)
    AAC and WMA are on the rise, and that makes sense given the current marketing trends with these two codecs. Does that mean mp3 is dying? Hardly. It will be around for quite sometime, despite development of superior codecs.
  • obviously (Score:5, Insightful)

    by WormholeFiend ( 674934 ) on Thursday October 21, 2004 @12:05PM (#10588986)
    all the companies producing new mp3 players agree...
    [/sarcasm]
    • Good Point (Score:5, Interesting)

      by Bill, Shooter of Bul ( 629286 ) on Thursday October 21, 2004 @12:40PM (#10589571) Journal
      The manufactures are still marketing the products as "mp3" Players even though they have support for different formats. So people might buy things like the rio karma and the dell jukebox because they are "mp3" Players, odds are they'll end up putting wma's on them. As the story says, many people don't know the difference and don't really care that much.
  • by RealAlaskan ( 576404 ) on Thursday October 21, 2004 @12:05PM (#10588987) Homepage Journal
    Researchers say the data does not show that MP3 is losing much of its popularity--files encoded in the format are just more disposable than rivals. People are still downloading boatloads of MP3 files--but they are discarding them at an even faster rate, the researchers said.

    So, most of what we download is crap. What's new here?

    • So, most of what we download is crap. What's new here?

      By that argument, if people are deleting more than they download, more than 100% of the music we download is crap. I do not think you know what that word means.

      There are basically two possible explanations for this, at least in my book. One of them is that people are downloading the same songs in other formats. The other is that people are just realizing that the music they previously downloaded was crap, and that they only downloaded it because

  • Has netcraft confirmed it?
  • by jayhawk88 ( 160512 ) <jayhawk88@gmail.com> on Thursday October 21, 2004 @12:05PM (#10588990)
    I think this should be obvious, given the rise of "legitimate" music sites like iTunes none too eager to use MP3 as their format of choice. But MP3 will always be around, given the thousands of people out there who have vast hoards of MP3 collections from the heady days of Napster 1.0.
    • Not quite true, my old napster mp3s have completely made way for AAC, both from iTMS and from me reripping my CDs for a higher quality but smaller file size. The few mp3 I've actually kept from the napster days have all been converted to AAC as well.

      I think that, if this trend is indeed real, and if it continues, then a lot of companies will start only handleing the predominant format.
      • by toddestan ( 632714 ) on Thursday October 21, 2004 @12:35PM (#10589484)
        My hoard of Napster 1.0 music files aren't going anywhere soon. Sure, they are redundant with other stuff I have downloaded, and many I haven't listened to in years. But going through them would take time, and I never know when I might need that 'Men Without Hats' track. Besides, harddrive space is incredibly cheap, the whole collection is probably taking up less than $5.00 worth of disk drive.
  • Most of the MP3s I have were recorded at pretty low bit rates, so they've got the quality of an 8-track. That said, I'd still expect to see the use of alternate formats (Ogg et. al.) rise before I'd declare MP3s on the decline. Or was it all just a fad, after all?
    • The 8 track analogy is just plain silly. With digital recording you can store music on memory sticks, portable hard drives, mini-discs, CD's, DAT, and even battery powered RAM. Even if an embedded device won't play MP3s in the future, your computer will be able to translate the signal into a future format.

      With 8 track, the tapes only worked with 8 track players.

  • Not so soon. (Score:2, Interesting)

    by Milik ( 633804 )
    MP3 is not going to vanish any time soon it is cross platform, there are many aplications writen for it. I think that some time in to the near future we will see an update to this standart.
  • Why? (Score:5, Insightful)

    by thedillybar ( 677116 ) on Thursday October 21, 2004 @12:06PM (#10589008)
    Why does it make any difference to Joe Schmoe w/ $20 speakers if it's in MP3, AAC or WMA?

    He's going to download what is readily available, or use the default format of the most readily available CD ripper. Winamp will play them all regardless; you can't even tell the difference.

    • Re:Why? (Score:5, Insightful)

      by Zachary Kessin ( 1372 ) <zkessin@gmail.com> on Thursday October 21, 2004 @01:00PM (#10589933) Homepage Journal
      MP3 may not be perfect as a format, but in general it is "Good Enough". It does the job, sure some other format may have sound thats a little better, or files that are a little smaller or something else over mp3, but not enough better to justify changing. A lot of people have spend money on mp3 players, have collected a lot of mp3s etc. To convince them to move to something new, that something has to have a feature thats a LOT better then mp3. I don't see anything out there that will do that now.
  • Saturation (Score:2, Insightful)

    by Dekks ( 808541 )
    Could it just be that a lot of people who were prolific in downloading mp3's now have most of the songs they want? I personally don't care about most new music enough to buy a cd or download a track, not that there isn't some good music out there, I just don't feel theres much I'm willing to pay for. And most of the older stuff I'm into I either got in napsters hey-day, or I own on CD, I can't recall the last time I actively seeked a song out. That and as other posters have already said, the mp3 audiophiles
    • Re:Saturation (Score:5, Insightful)

      by Tackhead ( 54550 ) on Thursday October 21, 2004 @12:16PM (#10589191)
      > Could it just be that a lot of people who were prolific in downloading mp3's now have most of the songs they want?

      Quite possibly. The first year you discover MP3, you get everything you always wanted, but could never find on CD. The second year, you go back to your first-year tracks, realize that 128/Xing sounds like ass, and redownload them at 192/LAME. The third year, you fill in the blanks.

      And you have a music archive that (as long as you remember to do offsite backup of the hard drive) will be with you for the rest of your life. No DRM. No worries about companies going under. No worries about the DRM or playback software being available on whatever OS you're using in 2018. Ever.

      • by pla ( 258480 ) on Thursday October 21, 2004 @01:18PM (#10590197) Journal
        The first year you discover MP3, you get everything you always wanted, but could never find on CD. The second year, you go back to your first-year tracks, realize that 128/Xing sounds like ass, and redownload them at 192/LAME.

        Then the third year you realize MP3 in general sounds like ass, and switch to all Vorbis. The fourth year, you realize that not all Vorbis encoders work equally well (same as with Xing vs Lame), and switch to GT3 or aoTuV at Q10. The fifth year you realize that you can hear (admittedly very little, but some) distortion even at the highest possible Vorbis quality you can get, and try using things like AAC, hacked WMV, and other oddballs.

        Finally, the sixth year, you realize that HDD space has grown to the point where you can afford to store your entire CD collection in a lossless format, and rip everything, one last time, to FLAC.

        And on the seventh year, I finally got to rest. ;-)


        Now, of course, 5.1ch 24bps@192KHz will become the dominant PCM format (or something even more exotic and non-PCM, like DSD used by SACD), and we start the entire cycle over. Those damned Jonses, they just keep getting better compression ratios than me!
  • MP3 death (Score:2, Insightful)

    by Anonymous Coward
    MP3 was declared dead years ago by lots of people who didn't like what was happening. Of course people are deleting MP3 files. They download everything and then delete what they don't like. Since you've got to pay for MS formatted stuff, you're only going to buy stuff you know you want and therefore, not delete it.


    Just more FUD.

  • Study sponsored by Microsoft with their own DRM agenda to push I presume...

    The only thing I'd delete my MP3s for, are OGGs.

    Suck it down you hapless technoweenies, Give me DRM-Free or give me death!
  • by mikewren420 ( 264173 ) on Thursday October 21, 2004 @12:07PM (#10589036) Homepage
    MSN is reporting the death of a rival format of WMA? Wow, there's a shocker!
  • by stecoop ( 759508 ) on Thursday October 21, 2004 @12:07PM (#10589038) Journal
    Remember when Fraunhofer threatened companies for infringing on certain MP3 license a few years ago? Well, that shook the industry into finding alternate solutions. For me, if it isn't some form of lossless open standard such as Flac than I prefer to pass not only on the sound track but the playing device as well. For me, listening to highly compressed MP3 isn't my cup of tea even if the compression ratio for lossy is higher than lossless.

    I am glade that Wikipedia settled (?) on OGGs rather than MP3s due to the open nature of the format. Hopefully this trend will continue whereby patent encumbrance may not be best solutions.
  • AAC vs WMA vs MP3 (Score:3, Informative)

    by Mstrgeek ( 820200 ) on Thursday October 21, 2004 @12:08PM (#10589042)
    This is a great write up done on this topic hope you enjoy

    http://reilly.typepad.com/cameronreilly/2004/09/aa c_vs_wma_vs_m.html

  • Could it be.... (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Vampyre_Dark ( 630787 ) on Thursday October 21, 2004 @12:09PM (#10589057)
    Could it be that the people who are running the spyware for this data to be mined for the research are more prone to losing their P2Ped mp3s when the 128 kilibyte .exe they downloaded thinking it was some game nuked their drive.? :)
  • Ha! (Score:5, Interesting)

    by Schezar ( 249629 ) on Thursday October 21, 2004 @12:09PM (#10589058) Homepage Journal
    I guess I'll have to stop playing mp3s on by BSD boxen..

    I frankly don't see mp3 going anywhere in the near future. It's ubiquitous, open, and of high quality. Despite what many "audiophiles" will say to the contrary, a 224 capped VBR0 mp3 will not be perceptibly different from even a the most perfect "lossless" method for 99% of music.

    My 486 can play mp3s. My crappy DVD player can play mp3s. My old-as-hell CD-based mp3 player can play mp3s.

    Sure, someday there will be a switch. Maybe for multi-channel audio, maybe for special neural orgasm stimulation, maybe for quantum compression. But for the time being, no file format exists that has enough of a net benefit over mp3 to warrent a mass-exodus.
    • Re:Ha! (Score:5, Insightful)

      by ratamacue ( 593855 ) on Thursday October 21, 2004 @12:49PM (#10589720)
      a 224 capped VBR0 mp3 will not be perceptibly different from even a the most perfect "lossless" method for 99% of music

      Maybe not, but it's quite a different story when you decide you want to re-encode those mp3's into another lossy format. For archiving purposes, there is no substitute for lossless compression. It has nothing to do with sound quality, and everything to do with having an exact, bit-for-bit duplicate of the original.

      To make an analogy, you wouldn't want to backup your CD's on analog cassette tapes. Even if you couldn't tell the difference in sound quality, you still don't have your originals, and thus you have no backup. If it's not bit-for-bit identical, it's not a backup. I'm not saying there isn't a place for lossy compression. I use lossy compression myself for my portable player, and it works great. But that's not a backup, it's only a convienence.

  • by scrod ( 136965 ) on Thursday October 21, 2004 @12:09PM (#10589063) Homepage
    In politics, you proclaim as already true what you would like to happen eventually.
  • i can't remember the extesion but the ipod format should be the only format making in-roads against the mp3 format.
    most new electronic devices play the mp3 format but ignore the acc, ogg, wma, etc formats, like dvd players, car stereos, and the like.
  • Out of 1257 tracks in my iTunes library, only 8 were downloaded off of P2P (Acqusition, to be exact). Basically, at some point I realized that the selection and quality from the P2P networks I was using* was... well, crap. You'll find 40 copies of one version of a song--which happens to be encoded at 128 kb/sec, or has a nasty glitch in the middle. Also, I like my music enough to want to have a real-world, excellent-quality backup (a CD). Most of my friends still use P2P. Frankly, though, they don't care
  • by Maudib ( 223520 ) on Thursday October 21, 2004 @12:11PM (#10589097)
    Doesnt mean mp3 is dying. There are so many bad mp3 files (due to bad nameing, RIAA subversion, etc) and just so much lousy music that most of the mp3s on P2P are not worth saveing.

    Also think about how many times you say "I want song x", and then your search on p2p turns up 40 different versions, thirty of which are covers by some irish tenor?

    They probably are missing its increased utility, in swapping amongst friends. Whenever I am at a friends house, I rip all of their cds to mp3s, and most of the people I know do the same. This kind of use with the increasing prevelance of iPods and other players is definitely on the rise.

  • Seriously, the amount that MS want WMP to be the defacto should not be underestimated at all.

    Of course MSN are going to suggest that a format lacking DRM is going to be in decline, and of course AAC is all the rage with iPod users.

    However, I still rip and encode in MP3 because quite simply, I can guarantee that every appliance I have can play it... from my car, my CD player, my walkman, my computer, a friends computer, etc, etc.
  • by Sevn ( 12012 )
    This looks more like corporate wishful thinking than anything else. This isn't like an 8-track at all. It isn't ridiculously easy to make your own 8-track and email it to someone.
  • Overall, the data has not shown a clear trend, but at least one recent study reports that people are deleting MP3s faster than they are downloading them.

    I've never downloaded an MP3, and my collection keeps growing. I sure as heck don't have any WMA or other files, and I'm looking to buy a new portable MP3 player before long.

    Mayhaps this is only a measure of people who download as opposed to use the format? I mean maybe there is a disconnect between peer to peer usage and others.

    Oh, and the link the p

  • CmdrTaco, your link to trend data is goofed...

    The only clear trend shown from your trend link is that Kerry is losing in the polls... ;-)

    One has to ask who are the idiots who let NPD track what is on their harddrives? (NPD Group's MusicWatch Digital who track the contents of people's hard drives)

    As mentioned in previous articles - most people rip their own CD collections to their HDs and have most of the music they want from DLs/file sharing/friends/etc. Additionally, most new music is shite anyways

  • yeah, right... (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Lumpy ( 12016 ) on Thursday October 21, 2004 @12:14PM (#10589150) Homepage
    that is why mp3 players are not selling.
    Oh and I see lots of home stereo players that will play DRM'd music... My audiotron will play WMA's until you get to the DRM variety.

    mp3 is as popular as ever, hell the new phone system here uses mp3 exclusively for voice messages, background music and voice prompts.

    Oh and when was the last time you saw a car stereo that would play any DRM'd music??

    mp3 is solid as a format.
  • by TiggertheMad ( 556308 ) on Thursday October 21, 2004 @12:14PM (#10589155) Journal
    ...because I just moved my 80+ GB collection to a bigger drive and cleaned off the old one.

    Gotta have room for all the new quality music comming out of the music industry, you know.
  • by Lars T. ( 470328 ) <Lars.TraegerNO@SPAMgooglemail.com> on Thursday October 21, 2004 @12:15PM (#10589159) Journal
    But just because many MP3s on P2P simply don't cut it (too low bitrate/pieces missing/fakes/etc.)
  • I'd agree. Most of the music I really care about is archived on CD-Rom in uncompressed format.
  • by drinkypoo ( 153816 ) <drink@hyperlogos.org> on Thursday October 21, 2004 @12:17PM (#10589214) Homepage Journal
    On the rare (RARE!) occasion that I buy one. Why? Because I can actually play them. See, WMA, AAC, OGG or the codec-of-the-week might be superior to MP3 but everything that plays compressed digital audio plays MP3. It's an issue of what will play where. When everything I have plays OGG, I'll probably switch to that. It'll probably be a long while before I replace my DVD player with one with OGG support though.
  • by Weaselmancer ( 533834 ) on Thursday October 21, 2004 @12:19PM (#10589232)

    As much as I dislike starting an argument with a logical fallacy [nizkor.org], you should really look at the article a bit before making any claims as to the death of MP3.

    First of all the article page loads with the title "MSN Tech & Gadgets". This is noteworthy, especially seeing as how MS is trying to break into this market. Of course they'd say MP3 is dead, especially when they're touting a DRM enabled propriatary format.

    Also, we have this gem from the article:

    According to researchers at The NPD Group's MusicWatch Digital who track the contents of people's hard drives, the percentage of MP3-formatted songs in digital-music collections has slid steadily in recent months, down to about 72 percent of people's collections from about 82 percent a year ago.

    Aside from this being really creepy, it's a biased sample [nizkor.org]. Anyone who would let someone put monitoring software on their PC (assuming it's not spyware) would probably not have a lot of MP3 files on their machine, if you know what I mean *nudge nudge*.

    To sum up: Article is bogus advertising spin. Nothing to see here, move along.

  • by IGnatius T Foobar ( 4328 ) on Thursday October 21, 2004 @12:20PM (#10589252) Homepage Journal
    It is official; Netcraft confirms: MP3 is dying

    One more crippling bombshell hit the already beleaguered MP3 community when IDC confirmed that MP3 market share has dropped yet again, now down to less than a fraction of 1 percent of all music files. Coming on the heels of a recent Netcraft survey which plainly states that MP3 has lost more market share, this news serves to reinforce what we've known all along. MP3 is collapsing in complete disarray, as fittingly exemplified by failing dead last in the recent Sys Admin comprehensive audio test.

    You don't need to be a Kreskin to predict MP3's future. The hand writing is on the wall: MP3 faces a bleak future. In fact there won't be any future at all for MP3 because MP3 is dying. Things are looking very bad for MP3. As many of us are already aware, MP3 continues to lose market share. Red ink flows like a river of blood.

    Open source MP3 is the most endangered of them all, having lost 93% of its core developers. The sudden and unpleasant departures of long time MP3 developers Frauhofer and Philips only serve to underscore the point more clearly. There can no longer be any doubt: MP3 is dying.

    Let's keep to the facts and look at the numbers.

    Due to the troubles of Frauhofer and Philips, abysmal sales and so on, Philips went out of business and was taken over by Magnavox who sell another troubled audio system. Now MP3 is also dead, its corpse turned over to yet another charnel house.

    All major surveys show that MP3 has steadily declined in market share. MP3 is very sick and its long term survival prospects are very dim. If MP3 is to survive at all it will be among audio dilettante dabblers. MP3 continues to decay. Nothing short of a miracle could save it at this point in time. For all practical purposes, MP3 is dead.

    Fact: MP3 is dying
  • by Marxist Hacker 42 ( 638312 ) * <seebert42@gmail.com> on Thursday October 21, 2004 @12:24PM (#10589319) Homepage Journal
    Just as my copy of Open Office still reads DOS format text files just fine, my hardware solid state music player that I buy in 2050 will still play MP3. Unlike 8-track and Beta (hardware formats), there's no barrier to force old software formats out of the market.
  • by zapp ( 201236 ) on Thursday October 21, 2004 @12:25PM (#10589329)
    Thanks to assholes out there (RIAA, dumbasses, etc)... you have to download 10 copies of a song just to find one that isn't cut, low quality, a different song mislabeled, the chorus looped over and over, or simply static.

  • Who cares? (Score:3, Interesting)

    by east coast ( 590680 ) on Thursday October 21, 2004 @12:25PM (#10589332)
    Thankfully (for MP3 fans) this is a software technology. Even if MP3s lose market share and are not available from subscription services like e-music or the late mp3.com the technology will still always be there.

    Not much different than an Atari 2600 emulator.

    And certainly the format will continue to get support from most major software and hardware manufacturers. I doubt the day is on us when we can by a WMA head unit for the auto that doesn't support MP3.

    For God's sake there is a C=64 web browser. What's the chances that MP3 is going away?
  • MP3 is like FAT (Score:5, Insightful)

    by jandrese ( 485 ) * <kensama@vt.edu> on Thursday October 21, 2004 @12:27PM (#10589366) Homepage Journal
    Have you ever noticed how almost every small storage technology uses the horribly limited, slow, badly designed FAT filesystem? There is a reason for this: FAT is the most compatable FS available. Few people use it anymore on their main filesystem (because it sucks), but almost everything else seems to use it.

    I see the same thing happening with MP3. People just digitizing their music so they don't have to pull out CDs all the time will use whatever has the best sound/size tradeoff (or whatever comes with the system). If they're encoding their music for use on joe random device, they'll use MP3.
    • Regarding FAT:

      "horribly limited" = file size limit not an issue on small media. FAT12/16 main directory size limit usually not an issue either, for most small media applications still using FAT.

      "slow" = cluster chain traversal for random seeking in files is what's slow about FAT. Not usually an issue for mp3 players, cameras that read or write files as a continuous stream.

      "badly designed" = simplicity. Just what you need when it's gotta be implemented in a small microcontroller that's already taske

  • by HaloZero ( 610207 ) <[protodeka] [at] [gmail.com]> on Thursday October 21, 2004 @12:27PM (#10589370) Homepage
    You mean I'm going to have to deal with my dad constantly shifting his boxes of 8-Tracks AND MP3s around the attic and complaining about not 'being able to find a decent player anymore'?
  • Don't Ask Me... (Score:4, Informative)

    by Trolling4Dollars ( 627073 ) on Thursday October 21, 2004 @12:30PM (#10589433) Journal
    ...I use Ogg Vorbis [vorbis.com] and it works just fine. All my music is in one place and, it's all legal (ripped from CDs I purchased) and I can listen to it anywhere thanks to icecast [icecast.org]+OpenVPN [sourceforge.net]. Power to the people baby! ;)
  • by sootman ( 158191 ) on Thursday October 21, 2004 @12:38PM (#10589541) Homepage Journal
    ...it's probably because that's what iTunes and WMP, respectively, rip to by default.

    I don't care how common WMA is, or that AAC is technically a "standard." MP3 is the only thing I know of that will play on every device and every computer, period. Hell, I bought a $79 AIWA deck for my car and it'll play MP3s from a CD. But not WMA, AAC, or anything else.

    MP3 will die--right after Apple & BSD.
  • by rpdillon ( 715137 ) on Thursday October 21, 2004 @12:55PM (#10589839) Homepage
    This trend is very alarming. It basically proves what I should have known all along: the technical merits of a format, along with how laden it is with DRM, do not matter at all to the general public.

    I thought that Xiph was doing a great thing with Ogg and I moved my entire collection over to ogg vorbis. I love it, and it sounds good. I thought it was a matter of time for the move from MP3 to Ogg to happen, since MP3 is larger, has more audio quality issues, and is not "free". Boy was I wrong! I thought people would be moving over to the smaller, higher quaity, free-as-in-speech codec.

    Instead, we're seeing the opposite! People moving to more restrictive codecs (although the quality may still be better). I knew most people didn't care about free-as-in-speech that much, but this is sort of alarming...
  • 8-tracks? (Score:3, Funny)

    by Sean Johnson ( 66456 ) on Thursday October 21, 2004 @02:17PM (#10590886)
    Why is mp3 going the way of the 8-track? Why do people want to start putting mp3's on 8-track now? That erases any portability gains. Also, 8-track sucks. In case people don't know, 8-track is so old (like 1960's and 70's) it's not even funny. Now I am gonna have to shop around at flea markets for an 8-track player just so I can enjoy my myraid of MP3's. Those things suck up battery life like no-one's business too. Well I hope I can get one of those GROOVY models that have built-in speakers that split the one speaker apart so you can have better stereo. Ooh! I want one with additional speaker jacks so I can have QUADRAPHONIC sound. That would be totally kicky-blast and wailin'.
  • by TyrranzzX ( 617713 ) on Thursday October 21, 2004 @02:27PM (#10591009) Journal
    Seriously, did they break into people's computers and do searches? Did they use P2P searches (which are about as reliable as a slashdot poll)? Did they run around a small part of the US looking for information? No, the story says "analysts" and "researchers", without naming names as far as I read.

    You know what this is? This is akin to the old conspiracy theorist FUD model of writing, with a journalistic twist. The conspiracy theorist fud model simply states that you state the problem, in as worrying as words possible, every 2 or so sentances inbetween prooving it. For example:

    "Researchers at NY university said that an asteroid is going to hit the earth within 2/3 months. This asteroid will wipe out ALL of the life on the planet. It is the size of texas."

    Ect, ect ect and so on. Journalists write it in a journalistic way, however, instead of having the FUD every 2-3 sentances, they restate their thesis in a different way, then proceed to use words such as "researchers" or "analysts" over and over to somehow give it credibility. So, how did they get the information?

    The "analysts and researchers" are "NPD group". They have a spyware app called "music watch digital", you know, the one that is put onto EMI's CD's and loaded onto the machine via autorun. You know, the one that can be disabled by the shift key? Yea, that one, the one that catalouges a persons harddisk and sends it back to whoever.

    Now, the next question is, why would ZD net have a MS sponsored article written by a CNET staff member? Oh, wait, there's a second article at the bottom of the page, talking about a "maturing" mp3 market. You know, the market that is now going towards paying for DRM'd disabled music online? Notice the mention of sony, apple, and MS's players which will undoubtedly go towards people looking into these players and music services?

    This equates to "our spyware app says that the mp3 may be dieing. People are using these players". Must be a slow news day or somethin'.
  • by PureCreditor ( 300490 ) on Thursday October 21, 2004 @02:57PM (#10591326)
    Aside being an iPod owner myself, I like AAC for a variety of reasons :

    1) it's ISO-standardized
    2) it's the default codec for MPEG4
    3) it's embraced by Apple and iTunes Music Store
    4) it's sound beats mp3 by far
    5) it's sound (at 128/192), in my opinion, is slightly superior to WMA
    6) by not using WMA, i'm not tied to Microsoft's future changes in licensing agreements

    currently i have mp3's by far, but I rip all new CDs to AAC (m4a, not m4p).

    Ogg Vorbis is unsupported by most mainstream hardware, and WMA excels only in low bit rates of =64, which I don't rip to. MP3Pro is barely embraced, and mp3's psychoacoustic model is aging, thus leaving AAC good for quite some time to come (at least until the replacement of AAC arrives).

    Surprisingly, while MPEG4's AAC is widely adopted and available, few people have access to MPEG2's AC3 (possibly due to licensing issues with Dolby). Sony's ATRAC3+ is so proprietary it's not even funny.
  • MSN, which is owned by Microsoft (a company which wants to encourage use of its proprietary, royalty collecting DRM format over others), has a story how people (supposedly) prefer a DRM-locked format over an open one. How amazing and unusual that such a story would come out. It couldn't be that they have biases, oh no! It's like that there clearly isn't any question that the issue of restricting reproduction of digital broadcasts through the FCC's mandating of digital TVs to honor the Broadcast Flag is unimportant by the fact that no television network or broadcast TV station has devoted even 30 seconds of TV news time to the issue all year. We all know the media isn't biased, right?

    Despite this, I note that the original story indicates that MP3 is still more popular than any DRM-locked format, and that purchased (proprietary DRM-locked) songs are a tiny percentage of what people have around.

    What's interesting is they are talking about people's habits in deleting files (which means nothing). Of course, people are less likely to delete files they have paid for over MP3s of files they may have ripped from their own CDs or have downloaded off a file-sharing service. If you didn't pay anything for the copy and you get tired of it or don't like the song, you might (or are more likely to) delete it. You're less likely to do that (even if you don't like it) with a song you paid hard cash for the copy. Witness the number of people who throw away / donate / give away used paperbacks they paid under $1 (and especially 50c and below), versus people who keep brand-new paperbacks and don't toss their new ones away as quickly.

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