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Microsoft Databases Programming Software News

Inside The Search For Jim Gray 115

Posted by CowboyNeal from the gone-but-not-forgotten dept.
An anonymous reader writes "InformationWeek adds some interesting new details to the story of unprecedented grass-roots search for Jim Gray, the Turing Award-winning database guru who helped set up Microsoft Research's San Francisco lab. Gray disappeared Jan. 26 after sailing out of San Francisco Bay to scatter his mother's ashes at the Farallon Islands, 27 miles offshore. Once the Coast Guard had given up its massive search, Gray's friends rallied the tech community — including people like Google co-founder Sergey Brin — into action. 12,000 volunteers spent 3 days examining 1.6 million hi-res images of ocean gathered by a NASA pilot who flew a U2 low over the area where Gray was thought to have disappeared. But it was all for naught. As Sendmail creator Eric Allman notes, Gray was expert at 'stripping away mystery by making things simple. It's an irony to me that he should end in a mystery.'"
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Inside The Search For Jim Gray More

Inside The Search For Jim Gray

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  • If you are an expert at taking mystery and... (Score:3, Interesting)

    by 3seas ( 184403 ) on Saturday March 31, 2007 @08:22AM (#18555057) Homepage Journal
    ...demistifying it to the simple then you are also an expert at the reverse.

    Though it is possible tragedy happened, it is also possible that he "Simply" decided to vanish.

    • Simplest explanation - he fell overboard (Score:2, Insightful)

      by Anonymous Coward
      The Pacific Ocean off California is cold. You don't have long in that water before hypothermia sets in. And remember that couple that fell off a cruise ship a few weeks ago? Well, the crew knew they fell overboard, and it still took hours and hours to find them.

      Most people have no clue about how damn big the ocean is and how hard it is to spot a person in the swells. When you have thousands and thousands of square miles to search, getting within 1/2 mile of the target is close. And how likely are you t

      • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

        by dissy ( 172727 )
        While I do agree, falling overboard is a likely answer, and everything you said about that is true.

        There is still one question... Where is the boat?

        They started the search a couple days after he went out, basically once people noticed he wasnt back.
        As I remember, a week or something like that later there was concern for a storm coming in.
        One would think a spotter plane would atleast find the boat, before that storm came in.

        Granted after a storm, which even if not a week later, im sure at least once between
        • Occam's razor (a.k.a common sense) tells us that if a guy is out sailing alone and disappears, chances are he's not partying in Mexico...
    • That's the silliest thing I've heard all day..
      • No, not really.
        When I was young, in the early 80's, I would vanish for months at a time. I would just tell my dad I was leaving, and show up a few month later. nobody would ever ask.

        Learned how to pick tomatoes and peppers , drive a combine, build a house, and a lot more. if times were safer I would tell everyone to do it. I think in Australia they call it a walk-about or something like that.

        A person has the right to vanish if they so feel like it. so he might have just, unplugged, and got off the grid. nev
      • Not half so silly as 12,000 people forming a search and rescue team then going down to the local starbucks to sip coffee and look at pictures. Way to go nerds!

  • ...gathered by a NASA pilot who flew a U2 low over the area where Gray was thought to have disappeared.


    I'd have thought a U2 would be more useful at high altitude taking super high resolution shots of wide areas than at low level where something like a private turboprop and an 'average' DSLR would be just as useful.

    FTR: My captcha was 'sailed'.

    • Re:Low Flying? (Score:5, Informative)

      by Anonymous Coward on Saturday March 31, 2007 @08:47AM (#18555185)
      I was one of the people who analyzed the U2 (actually ER-2) images. According to the headers, the images were obtained at 50,000 feet. Perhaps that is "low" for an ER-2. By the way, the footprint ofthe ER-2 images was small compared to the satellite images, which in turn were somewhat smaller than to the area searched by the Coast Guard

    • Re: (Score:1, Offtopic)

      by Goaway ( 82658 )
      You have an 'average' DSLR that can take 1.6 million shots?

    • Re:Low Flying? (Score:4, Informative)

      by Gerhardius ( 446265 ) on Saturday March 31, 2007 @10:07AM (#18555697)
      The camera array on NASA's ER2 is a tad more sophisticated than simply a DSLR or two. The relatively limited and older IRIS system covers a strip approximately 40 nautical miles wide: exactly what kind of setup could accomplish this on a turboprop? I am not saying it could not be done, but it would take more than a few days of work. The possible selection of cameras on the ER-2 is listed in the first link, the National Imagery Interpretability Rating Scales for civilian and military usage are 2nd and 3rd:

      http://www.nasa.gov/centers/dryden/research/AirSci /ER-2/cameras.html [nasa.gov]
      http://www.fas.org/irp/imint/niirs_c/guide.htm [fas.org]
      http://www.fas.org/irp/imint/niirs.htm [fas.org]

    • Re: (Score:3, Informative)

      by Animats ( 122034 )

      Convenience, basically. NASA has an old U-2 based at Ames, it has the right cameras for the job, and they have pilots who can fly a U-2.

      • So are they going to break it out everytime someone is lost? Or is this more of that equal treatment where some people are more equal than others?

        • Re: (Score:2)

          by be-fan ( 61476 )
          Rich people (especially smart rich people) are more important than everyone else. What's so hard about that to understand?

          • Rich people (especially smart rich people) are more important than everyone else. What's so hard about that to understand?

            It is hard to understand for those of us who -- based upon careful analysis of empirical evidence and the theoretical foundations of the seemingly unquestionably accepted economic and social phillosphies -- came to the conclusion that the supposed corellation of wealth and "merit to the society" (and thus by implication the "importance" of an individual to the rest of us) is one of tho

  • Collided with a Freighter, Sucked Under (Score:5, Informative)

    by Tsu Dho Nimh ( 663417 ) <abacaxi&hotmail,com> on Saturday March 31, 2007 @08:43AM (#18555173)
    I remember a freighter that came into Charleston harbor with a SAIL snarled in the anchor. The crew never heard or felt a thing, but the sailboat was never found. Their best guess was that the collision happened off the coast of Spain.

    If Gray's boat was run over by an outgoing freighter, he would have had little time to escape. The sailboat would have been sucked under the freighter and may or may not have come to the surface after the freighter's hull and propellers got through chewing on it.

    • Re: (Score:2, Informative)

      by hejog ( 816106 ) *
      thats why you don't sail in shipping lanes. ever.

      • thats why you don't sail in shipping lanes. ever.

        Coming and going from the Farallons ... that's impossible to do because all shipping has to go under the bridge. From the islands you have to cross the shipping lanes to get to the coast of Califoenia.

    • Deckhand at the wheel.... (Score:1, Interesting)

      by Anonymous Coward

      I remember a freighter that came into Charleston harbor with a SAIL snarled in the anchor. The crew never heard or felt a thing, but the sailboat was never found. Their best guess was that the collision happened off the coast of Spain.
      If Gray's boat was run over by an outgoing freighter, he would have had little time to escape. The sailboat would have been sucked under the freighter and may or may not have come to the surface after the freighter's hull and propellers got through chewing on it.

      This happens more often than one would think and the victims aren't just sail boats the victims range right up to fishing boats and small coastal cargo ships. The problem isn't always that these bulk carrier crews don't realize they've hit somebody. It's also that the level of incompetence among the people running some of these ships is simply frightening. About 15 years ago I watched a container ship sink that had hit a reef in a wild storm and sink with loss of most of the crew. The local rescue boat tri

    • Re:Collided with a Freighter, Sucked Under (Score:5, Insightful)

      by MarkSyms ( 167054 ) on Saturday March 31, 2007 @09:30AM (#18555449)
      If he was in any way an experience Yacht master then there is no way that would happen. The only way you're ever going to get that type of collision is if the skipper in charge of the yacht is seriously inexperienced or there is zero visibility. Given that he was heading out to scatter his mother's ashes I doubt it was bad vis, that's the sort of trip you want to do in perfect conditions as you want it be a memorable experience.

      First rule of the sea, it is your responsibility to avoid a collision, regardless if the other vessel should give way to you.

      • Re:Collided with a Freighter, Sucked Under (Score:5, Insightful)

        by TiredOfCrap ( 885340 ) on Saturday March 31, 2007 @01:03PM (#18557057)

        You are so wrong!

        I nearly got nailed by a tanker leaving Charlestown harbor at about 2:00 am.

        The tanker came out of Charlestown roads and immediately altered course straight in my direction.

        I had no engine and was totally reliant on sail, so my ability to get out of his way was restricted. I used flashlamps focussed on the bridge of the tanker, but nothing changed.

        In the end I had to use a distress flare, and the tanker missed me by about 20 feet.

        What many people don't realize is that modern ships are comouter driven, thereby only requiring one person on watch when under voyage. That person could have been taking a leak, studying a chart, whatever.

        When a tanker bears down on you at 15 knots, you don't have much time to react, and if you panic, what you DO do could be considered as counter productive, to say the least!

        • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

          by MarkSyms ( 167054 )
          And had he hit you and had it gone to maritime court, you would likely have been found to be the guilty party. I am fully aware of the lack of maneuvering ability of modern ships. Power gives way to sail is a myth. It is your responsibility as master of your vessel to ensure that a collision does not occur, which it sounds like you managed through the use of pyrotechnics. Pure sail with no auxiliary engine has no business being in a busy shipping lane at night, and I speak as a certified yacht skipper so I
          • I disagree with your statement-

            "Pure sail with no auxiliary engine has no business being in a busy shipping lane at night, and I speak as a certified yacht skipper so I do know what I'm talking about."

            A sailboat on the open ocean displaying proper navigation lights has every right to be in a shipping lane at night, as a "certified yacht skipper" you should know it is the responsibility of every vessel to keep watch and avoid collisions.

            It is sometimes unavoidable to be around large fast moving ships at nigh

            • Re: (Score:1)

              by Askmum ( 1038780 )
              While it may be very true that you have every right to be there and that the other vessel should keep a watch, it won't help you in any way if you're dead.

              I have no experience with shipping on the high seas, only on rivers, lakes and canals, but even there I keep a respectful eye to the commerical shipping, even when I should have the right of way, and when in doubt, I make it clear that I make way and I would not feel safe if I could do that with wind power only.
              I have seen too many incidents and near miss

              • Re: (Score:2)

                by Raenex ( 947668 )
                I have no sailing experience, but all of this reminds me of biking. In particular, why I don't bike on busy, winding roads. I see lots of bicyclists that do, and of course they have every right to be there, but man, it's too damn scary. Too easy for some driver not paying attention and too close to the shoulder to come around a bend and wipe you out.

    • I remember a freighter that came into Charleston harbor with a SAIL snarled in the anchor. The crew never heard or felt a thing, but the sailboat was never found.

      When I first got my sea kayak I used to paddle around the harbour area taking a close look at the docked freighters. Until one day I noticed a ship being prepped to leave. One check they do is to drop the anchor. Makes sense, just don't be underneath when it happens because they don't winch it down. They drop it.

      Incidently this is the first menti

    • Agreed. In another lifetime I was a commercial fishing bum, working boats out of John's Pass off St. Petersburg, Florida USA.

      A couple of my best friends were run over by something big about 125 miles out into the Gulf. Searchers found the mangled stern of the 42-foot fiberglass hull, and that was all. No bodies, the critters out there are hungry. It was at night, there was no distress call, and the other vessel was never identified.

  • Simple query. (Score:4, Funny)

    by Anonymous Coward on Saturday March 31, 2007 @09:43AM (#18555539)
    SELECT [Location] FROM [MissingPeople] WHERE [FirstName] = 'Jim' AND [LastName] = 'Gray'

    Results: NULL

    Oh my.

    • Re: (Score:1)

      by mrdogi ( 82975 )
      > SELECT [Location] FROM [MissingPeople] WHERE [FirstName] = 'Jim' AND [LastName] = 'Gray'

  • Wisdom of Crowds (of geeks) (Score:4, Interesting)

    by (Robo_Bro) ( 1009507 ) on Saturday March 31, 2007 @10:20AM (#18555815)
    FTFA:

    I decided I'd organize a group that would predict where an object would drift in that period
    If anyone's read James Surowiecki's "The Wisdom of Crowds", they'd be familiar with a story in which a lost ship was located by tabulating/averaging the guesses from individuals (most with no search and rescue experience). This technique is roughly based on the idea of nature's bell-curve; collect enough guesses and the mean will be RIGHT ON. Anyways, I was simply curious if this technique was employed. How poetic would it be for Jim to be found because of a database's average?

    • Re:Wisdom of Crowds (of geeks) (Score:5, Informative)

      by Jussi K. Kojootti ( 646145 ) on Saturday March 31, 2007 @10:49AM (#18556021)

      If anyone's read James Surowiecki's "The Wisdom of Crowds", they'd be familiar with a story in which a lost ship was located by tabulating/averaging the guesses from individuals (most with no search and rescue experience). This technique is roughly based on the idea of nature's bell-curve; collect enough guesses and the mean will be RIGHT ON.
      No offense, but if your description of the technique is correct, it's based on sheer luck, not on "the idea of nature's bell-curve"...

    • Re: (Score:3, Informative)

      by westlake ( 615356 )
      If anyone's read James Surowiecki's "The Wisdom of Crowds", they'd be familiar with a story in which a lost ship was located by tabulating/averaging the guesses from individuals (most with no search and rescue experience)

      So, how many times has this "experiment" been replicated?

      How is the problem defined and explained for the non-specialist? In a random throw of the darts, I can usually hit the bull's eye. If you make the target big enough and let me move up real close.

      • I haven't read the book, but this is from its wiki page [wikipedia.org]:

        The opening anecdote relates Francis Galton's surprise that the crowd at a county fair accurately guessed the butchered or the "slaughtered and dressed" weight of an ox when their individual guesses were averaged (the average was closer to the ox's true butchered weight than the estimates of most crowd members, and also closer than any of the separate estimates made by cattle experts).

        So it's not really "luck," as was suggested by the poster above you.

        • Oh, I wasn't suggesting Wisdom of the Crowds generally is based on luck, just that locating a ship on sea with that method is... well, idiotic.
          • Sure, this method of thinking is total crock and would never actually find anyone as readily and easily as traditional search and rescue methods. Oh? Traditional methods haven't worked? Oh. RTFA, RTFB, then render your opinion. I look forward to hearing your input. :)
            • In this particular application I'm ready to use "the wisdom of the crowds" at about the same point I'll consider consulting tealeaves, clairvoyants and astrologers. The fact that traditional methods haven't worked doesn't make that bs anymore believable.
              • All sorts of things were "BS" until they were proven otherwise. Most things are unbelievable because we lack the knowledge/experience to understand how something could be possible. All I asked was whether anyone participating in this search had applied such knowledge. From a purely practical standpoint, I find the position of "My proven methods are not working, but I'm not even going to TRY you're unproven methods because I'M SURE they won't work either" to be a particularly weak one - especially when co

                • From a purely practical standpoint, I find the position of "My proven methods are not working, but I'm not even going to TRY you're unproven methods because I'M SURE they won't work either" to be a particularly weak one

                  Not at all. The actual consideration would be more akin to "Every minute that slips by reduces the possibility of finding something. What's the next most reasonable method to use?". I don't believe that the WoC examples I've heard of translate well to this situation, as they all were based on people's guesses of things they all had observed.

                  If you tell 200 people what you had for lunch, using WoC methods could probably provide you an accurate estimate of how many calories you consumed. If you told thos

    • >a lost ship was located by tabulating/averaging the guesses from individuals (most with no search and rescue experience).

      I... don't believe this. This sounds exactly like the "Emperor's Nose" fallacy. See this [imaginatorium.org].

      • This [twoplustwo.com] is a better explanation. And I remember now that I first heard this parable mentioned in one of Richard Feynman's books; the chapter can be found here [textbookleague.org].

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by Skreems ( 598317 )
      You should probably clarify that these aren't pure guesses, but estimates based on as much data as was available at the time. And even then, it's relatively shaky logic to carry one instance through to the rest of reality.

    • Re: (Score:1)

      by MobileC ( 83699 )
      Or even John Brunner's "Shockwave Rider" where the public Delphi boards did exactly that.

  • I don't suppose that... (Score:4, Funny)

    by master_p ( 608214 ) on Saturday March 31, 2007 @10:54AM (#18556053)
    ...he went near the new CERN's accelerator, did he?

  • They should determine other vessels that could possibly have been nearby during the window of time of Gray's disappearance. Chase down the details of those vessels' journey, especially any that changed course unexpectedly. That search may lead them to Gray.

  • Lost (Score:1)

    by PPH ( 736903 )
    The 'Others' have him.
  • You sail out by yourself in a small vessel near the Farralones and don't return, there's not much mystery. There's many a boat out sitting on the ocean floor out there that was piloted by an experienced sailor. Some nasty, shark infested waters out there.
  • And just what is "low" for a U2?
  • To find a *body*.

    Its nice to know there are no missing children these days.

    • Useful methods will help future searchers (Score:4, Insightful)

      by geekotourist ( 80163 ) on Saturday March 31, 2007 @03:04PM (#18558185) Journal
      Remember the search for the Kim family, lost on a snowy mountain pass in Oregon?

      At the time, people wrote about potential ways to make searching distributed [4brad.com]: "traditional aerial photography is far better, because it's higher resolution, higher contrast, can be done under clouds, can be done at other than a directly overhead angle, is generally cheaper and on top of all this can possibly be done from existing searchplanes." And if the lost person has a cell phone, then the plane can also have "a small mini-cell base station (for all cell technologies) that could be mounted in a regular airplane and flown over the area." Traditional aerial searches are limited to only a couple of pairs of eyes, but continuous hi-res photos can lead to thousands of viewers. Of course, there was the question of what to do with gigabytes of photos- how to automate distribution.

      The Jim Gray search team found a way to distribute aerial photo searches. Using Mechanical Turk was a good idea, because the infrastructure was already there.

      Now, for the next lost family, or lost child, it'll be much faster to get photos up and examined.

      They're helping physical search enter the 21st century, not because he or his friends were money rich, but because his and his colleagues were data rich. i.e. if you look up petabyte science, Jim Gray's name shows up a bunch. If there was any quid pro quo it wasn't because the searchers were giving agencies money, it was because they gave new methods.
  • The guy will be missed at Microsoft, that's for sure... I hope all that brand new kernel transaction stuff already works perfectly in Vista.

    Jim Gray - A talk with THE SQL Guru and Architect
    http://channel9.msdn.com/ShowPost.aspx?PostID=4989 1 [msdn.com]

    Jim Gray - Part II of talking about Database Design
    http://channel9.msdn.com/ShowPost.aspx?PostID=5042 8 [msdn.com]

    Conversation with scientist, engineer and database legend Jim Gray
    http://channel9.msdn.com/ShowPost.aspx?PostID=1681 81 [msdn.com]

    • Re: (Score:1)

      by wboy ( 1083035 )
      Those interviews are great -- hope they find him. His clustering ideas are needed. Also, I hope they look for me like that if a disappear on my sail boat.
  • You can see it now, a story of intense technical concentration and tragedy. He was preoccupied by an intriguing database problem while his laptop running Vista was crashing.. ..and was never seen or heard from again.

    Mauled by a huge tanker? Chomped on by great white sharks? Or sunk from hitting some sharp rocks at the bottom.. Dr. Who where are you?

    Time for some hound dolphins.

  • I participated in this search and spend approx 10 hours looking at the pictures. It was strangely satisfying to do, like a meaningful scavenger hunt. I later discovered Stardust@home [berkeley.edu] using the same Amazon Mechanical turk technology. You are helping the scientists find star dust particles in a aerogel. It takes 15min to qualify via a test but is it quite fun and as I said earlier strangely rewarding.

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