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Latest Music Piracy Study Overstates Effect of P2P 283

Blackbeard writes "A new study from pro-business think tank Institute for Policy Innovation claims that music piracy accounts for $12.5 billion in lost output to the US economy. That includes 71,060 lost jobs and $422 million in lost tax revenues... if the figures are accurate. Ars Technica's write-up points out a number of flaws in the IPI's reasoning. 'The study makes for some alarming reading, but it suffers from a few significant flaws. First and foremost, it appears to fall into the "illicit downloads = lost sales" fallacy, the view that each song obtained over a P2P network is a lost purchase.' There's more: 'The IPI study also assesses the increased demand for music if piracy didn't exist and assumes the market would remain as "intensely competitive" as it is today. The problem is that music fans are largely disenchanted with the market. By and large, music fans think that music is too expensive, and that much of what is available isn't very good.'"
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Latest Music Piracy Study Overstates Effect of P2P

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  • by Zondar ( 32904 ) on Thursday August 23, 2007 @02:06PM (#20333229)
    If a high-school kid was a massive warez junkie and managed to accumulate 1.5 million dollars worth of pirated software, would the IPI consider that 1.5 million dollars worth of lost sales... from a kid with a maximum $2K-$3K a year income?

    Doesn't seem to me they're looking at actual buying potential of the 'offender'... just theoretical maximum revenue lost by the producer.
    • by stranger_to_himself ( 1132241 ) on Thursday August 23, 2007 @02:12PM (#20333329) Journal
      There must be some effect here. I know plenty of people who don't buy any music at all, but certainly would if they couldn't download it for nothing. Obviously the 1 to 1 correspondence between downloading and lost sales isn't useful, but does anybody know of any reasonable estimates of what the loss actually is? Or even how you'd calculate it?
      • by KingSkippus ( 799657 ) * on Thursday August 23, 2007 @02:42PM (#20333751) Homepage Journal

        Obviously the 1 to 1 correspondence between downloading and lost sales isn't useful...

        Actually, I'd like to see the correspondence between downloading and gained sales, and more importantly, gained revenue.

        Gained sales of dropping stupid DRM schemes would come through increased word-of-mouth advertising and a much better relationship between movie/music labels and their consumers, as well as a lot more avenues for the media to be used for personal purposes. (E.g. watching a movie on tv, burning a copy to take in the car with you on vacation, etc.)

        Here's the kind of thing I'm imagining. Let's say you buy a copy of Shrek 3 on DVD and pay, say $20 for it. $3 could be called the media cost, and $17 could be the licensing cost of having the movie. With the DVD, you get a code you can use to register the fact that you own the rights to watch Shrek 3. Now let's say that you really want a copy of it for your iPod. You get on the web site, pay an incremental $2 fee (you don't need to pay the other $17, you already have!), and you have the movie on your iPod. You want an HD-DVD version? Pay an incremental $5 fee for the media, and there you go. There's a Platinum Extended Edition released a year later? Add another $5 for the content, plus $3 for the new media cost, and you don't have to buy a movie you already own again. Maybe even have a $50 or so "master" version that guarantees you the movie in all formats and with extended material going forward.

        Also, there would be a TON of gained revenue from not having to spend any more ridiculous amounts of money on complicated DRM schemes that, in the end, have proven perpetually useless.

        Would there still be piracy? You bet, and probably a lot of it. But I look at it this way. The media industries can either lose a billion dollars a year to piracy and make, I dunno $50 billion in revenue, or they can lose five billion dollars a year to piracy and make $100 billion in revenue. So far, they've been pretty stupid in choosing the former. It's just a matter of time (and a matter of the MPAA and RIAA suffering a complete overhaul) before they figure out that the latter is better for us and better for them and that there is a ton of money to be made.

        • Gained sales of dropping stupid DRM schemes would come through increased word-of-mouth advertising and a much better relationship between movie/music labels and their consumers, as well as a lot more avenues for the media to be used for personal purposes.

          I seriously doubt it. Most people don't care about DRM, they don't care about the RIAA or labels. What they care about is the music and what is now. So long as the CD "works," meaning it doesn't prevent them from playing the CD or putting it on their iPo

          • Re: (Score:3, Informative)

            by Romancer ( 19668 )
            That "just work" mentality is directly related to the DRM that you say they don't care about.

            If the DRM was dropped and people found that buying from seller "A" let them use their purchase however they wanted and it "just worked" but purchasing it from seller "B" didn't. Then they would have a very high encentive to buy from seller "A" and the word of mouth between general users would be: "Buy from these guys, it just works!"

            That's "So long as the CD "works,"" not "Most people don't care about DRM"
          • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

            by KingSkippus ( 799657 ) *

            I seriously doubt it. Most people don't care about DRM, they don't care about the RIAA or labels. What they care about is the music and what is now. So long as the CD "works," meaning it doesn't prevent them from playing the CD or putting it on their iPod, they could care less about DRM.

            Most people might not know the terms "RIAA" and "DRM", but you'd better believe they care about it. Ask anyone if they'd like the thought of paying for a movie, CD, or whatever just once and having access to it on any med

        • I like your ideas and wish to subscribe to your newsletter.
        • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

          by rjhubs ( 929158 )
          I don't support the RIAA or DRM but I have never really bought into the whole "allowing piracy increases net sales" ideology. Firstly, I doubt it will increase the number albums sold. Why would you buy the album.. if you already have all the songs? It doesn't make any sense. Secondly, if we are to believe that downloading music for free increases a band's exposure, then there should be a corresponging increase in concert attendance and merchandise sales. I'll leave it up to someone to find the actual n
          • by KingSkippus ( 799657 ) * on Thursday August 23, 2007 @05:58PM (#20336341) Homepage Journal

            I have never really bought into the whole "allowing piracy increases net sales" ideology.

            Maybe not directly, but definitely indirectly. For example, I'm a huge Pink Floyd fan. I started getting into them around 1990, which was the end of an extremely frustrating musical era with all the crap that was churned out in the 1980's. I had gotten so disgusted with music that I honestly never listened to the radio. A buddy of mine had The Wall, though, and I was hooked. He gave me a copy of his tape, and over the years since, I've bought almost every Pink Floyd album there is, except some of the crappy early ones with Syd Barrett. I've also seen them twice in concert.

            Another example. When I was in college, like most college students, I was dirt poor. I've always liked Billy Joel, and another buddy of mine invested his disposable income in a CD player (still pretty new at the time) and almost all of Billy Joel's CDs. Of course, I couldn't afford all that, so I bought a bunch of blank cassettes and he made copies for me. Fast forward a few years, and I now am the proud owner of all of Billy Joel's albums, and I've seen him twice in concert, too. (If you're ever lucky enough to get the chance to see either Pink Floyd or Billy Joel in concert, incidentally, go.)

            Another example. Just today, a friend of mine was listening to a Lazlo Bane CD I bought. (They're the guys who did the theme to the television show Scrubs, and their stuff is very good.) He had never even heard of the group before. At best, most people I run across are familiar with the theme to Scrubs ("I'm no Superman..."), but they'd never buy a whole Lazlo Bane CD because of that little snippet of song you hear on Thursday nights. I'll be honest, I seriously doubt he's going to rush out and buy a Lazlo Bane CD or go to a concert. But at least now he knows who they are, and if someone mentions Scrubs, he'll probably say something like, "Oh yeah, the theme was done by Lazlo Bane. I've listened to their CD and thought it was pretty good," and thus the "buzz" of the Bane has been bumped up by a bit.

            I could keep going, but you get the idea. The collective effect of all of this is that CDs do sell better. Artists and bands do become more famous. Concerts do get attended that otherwise wouldn't have.

            Plus, that's also neglecting the money that artists and bands make through increased exposure that have little to do with CD sales and concerts directly, such as through endorsement deals, magazine articles and interviews, non-CD merchandise, etc.

          • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

            Why would you buy the album.. if you already have all the songs?

            Most of the CDs I buy are of albums I already have as mp3s, largely collected during high school and uni when I didn't have money for frivolous things like that. The majority of the rest of the CDs I buy are from artists I have a few tracks from which I've downloaded (usually long ago, again) and wanted to get the album those songs came from.

            Same goes for lots of computer games; I buy the ones I like, but often play ones I don't feel are worth their full list price. I have a copy of Oblivion still shrin

      • Take the average sales and growth of the music industry before napster, adjust for the general economy, and see how it compares to real numbers. It's not perfect, but at least it's another number, and one based closer to reality.
      • by legirons ( 809082 ) on Thursday August 23, 2007 @03:01PM (#20334021)
        Wouldn't this study require the demand for music to be "perfectly inelastic"? [wikipedia.org]

        i.e. if demand for a full-price version of some music is the same (in their model) as demand for a zero-price version of the music, then they're modelling the demand as being the same no matter what the price.

        If that were so (and the wiki pages on economics suggest it's not possible) then it would suggest that you could sell music CDs for $10K each (recognise this theory from anyone's legal filings? ;)) and the demand wouldn't change because they've already published papers claiming that people downloading free music instead of paying were not doing it because of any price considerations.
      • by ACMENEWSLLC ( 940904 ) on Thursday August 23, 2007 @03:54PM (#20334861) Homepage
        >>There must be some effect here. I know plenty of people who don't buy any music at all, but
        >>certainly would if they couldn't download it for nothing. Obviously the 1 to 1 correspondence
        >>between downloading and lost sales isn't useful, but does anybody know of any reasonable estimates
        >>of what the loss actually is? Or even how you'd calculate it?

        I'm not sure that is possible. I have purchased hundreds and hundreds of music CD's over the years. I have quit. After hearing what the RIAA was doing, I could no longer support such a company. How can you quantify that affect? I do admit that I've purchased some un-signed (indy?) artists CD's. I have a co-worker that in un-signed and I have his. I have one from a group in NYC and another from a signed but non RIAA member. In the last 3 years..

        But I've quit buying music like I previously did. And no, I don't download it from P2P networks either. What I've done is switched to XM Radio. I have two subscriptions. I now understand the RIAA gets a cut of my subscription. I don't like that as I mostly listen to Fox News, XM Comedy, and other stations like that. .02

        • My hatred of the RIAA is now greater than my desire to be legal.

          It's not just the DMCA and all the terrible lawyering, lying and lobbying, it's the way they consistently rip off the artists. If the artists are suffering it's because of the record companies and their contracts, not the people who download CDs.

          I actually know some real, famous musicians and heard their storr about making one of the top 100 selling albums of all time and not making a penny from it - the record company took it all.

          nb. This isn
      • Re: (Score:3, Funny)

        by bcharr2 ( 1046322 )
        The study's model is not only theoretically accurate, but also predictive.

        Think of it this way: If every consumer product in the world suddenly lowered their cost to $0.00, I don't see people changing their purchasing patterns in any way. That Lamborghini is suddenly free? No thanks, I'll stick with my Toyota. Console games suddenly cost nothing? I'll continue to buy 1 every other month. I don't really have time to play more than that anyways.

        So you see, the study's assumptions are 100% accurate.
    • by purpledinoz ( 573045 ) on Thursday August 23, 2007 @02:18PM (#20333421)
      I think a better measure would be just to look at the drop in music sales over each year. There's no doubt that people are buying music less, but it's still a stretch to correlate that drop entirely to piracy. I wonder how much of that drop is due to high CD prices due to price fixing, people getting pissed for the RIAA suing the American public, and the lack of creative new music. Of course Congress will only see this number. If you counted every song ever pirated as a sales loss, it would probably be bigger than America's GDP, which would mean America should be in a severe depression now.
      • If you compare the lost music sale to the increase in the amount people spend on concerts, then factor in how much kids today (probably their most valuable customers) spend on their cellphone, it all adds up nicely, all without having to resort to imaginary lost sales.

        Another interesting thing to look at is that music sales is now pretty much back to what it was before the CD boom in the 90ies when people replaced their record collection with CDs. All in all, people spend more *money* on culture today, th

        • Re: (Score:3, Informative)

          by king-manic ( 409855 )


          If you compare the lost music sale to the increase in the amount people spend on concerts, then factor in how much kids today (probably their most valuable customers) spend on their cellphone, it all adds up nicely, all without having to resort to imaginary lost sales.



          Tickets sales go more directly to the artist. The RIAA doesn't represent the artist as much as the distributer. The RIAA couldn't care less and by extention the labels couldn't care a single wad if the artist never made a dime so long as they
      • by dwandy ( 907337 ) on Thursday August 23, 2007 @03:36PM (#20334569) Homepage Journal

        I think a better measure would be just to look at the drop in music sales over each year.
        You need to factor in the bundling effect of the album or cd.
        CDs are (typically) 8-12 songs, and many people would buy all 8-12 just for the 1-3 they liked. (often there was no real alternative: the 'single', or a couple of singles cost as much as the full album!)
        With iTunes et-al, many (most?) people are buying only the 1-3 they like.

        I'd love to see some kind of break-down for buying patterns on these sites: how many 'album' sales are there relative to 'singles'. And if 'singles' sales were converted to album sales at CD prices, would total sales still be down?
        Personally, I doubt it...I suspect sales are actually up once this is factored.

      • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

        by penix1 ( 722987 )

        I think a better measure would be just to look at the drop in music sales over each year. There's no doubt that people are buying music less, but it's still a stretch to correlate that drop entirely to piracy. I wonder how much of that drop is due to high CD prices due to price fixing, people getting pissed for the RIAA suing the American public, and the lack of creative new music.

        More importantly, it is more likely the "Wal-Mart Effect". That effect tends to not only reduce competition in a geographical ar

    • by jfengel ( 409917 ) on Thursday August 23, 2007 @02:47PM (#20333823) Homepage Journal
      While I agree with the point that they're miscalculating, don't assume that a loss to you is necessarily a gain for me. If I smash your car window, you've certainly taken a loss, but I'm up nothing except a grin.
    • by Alsee ( 515537 ) on Thursday August 23, 2007 @02:55PM (#20333927) Homepage
      If a high-school kid was a massive warez junkie and managed to accumulate 1.5 million dollars worth of pirated software, would the IPI consider that 1.5 million dollars worth of lost sales... from a kid with a maximum $2K-$3K a year income?

      Duh, of course not. No one is that stupid.
      You obviously didn't read the article. Because the article explicitly quotes:

      In this study, the weighted average substitution rate used for the physical piracy of recorded music is 65.7 percent.
      What the IPI is actually saying that high-school kids with a maximum $2K-$3K a year income (which equals a $50 a week allowance) who accumulate 1.5 million dollars worth of music downloads are measured at a rate of 65.7 percent... or more specifically nine hundred and eighty five thousand five hundred dollars of spending each.

      Don't go making up silly fictional figures claiming "the IPI consider that 1.5 million dollars worth of lost sales".

      Silly rabbit.

      -
    • I get ALL my music by downloads legally through iTunes (20% for my own enjoyment) or through the PodsafeMusicNetwork (PMN) (80% for my podcast.)

      They can keep their opinion to themselves, and they can keep their grubby little fingers off of my network.

      (I HAVE noticed that ComCast uploads via FTP of my episodes start at about 194KBps and throttle down to a measly 50KBps by the end of a 25MB file upload. Down is throttled as well but resumes after a couple of minutes. [Fuckers can't even tell the difference be
    • If a high-school kid was a massive warez junkie and managed to accumulate 1.5 million dollars worth of pirated software

      The warez junkie consumes bandwidth and storage on a massive scale.

      He is not a kid with a laptop and a 120 GB hard drive.

      That said, it is very easy to imagine such a kid downloading $250 - $500 worth of music, video, and games - merchandise - that he or his parents would have rented or purchased otherwise.

      Try multiplying the real-world example by 1,000, 10,000, 100,000, and see what the

    • Not only do they overstate the buying potential of the music file sharers, but they also make the assumption that people who illegally download then take the money they would have used to purchase the music and then put it into a mattress. In reality, if they don't spend money on music, they're probably going to spend it on something else or it'll be invested (ie savings in the bank) which adds to thd GDP.

      If the IPI is going to make statements like this, they should at least take into account what a firs

  • Group comes out and cites an absurd number (for those who know the reality of the subject) and claims it's the loss due to thing A. Been going on forever with all sorts of things, including music piracy. Lots of people will believe them and clamor to kill piracy, and not listen to people who actually understand the subject because 'they're probably pirates'. This is becoming all too common...
  • by illegibledotorg ( 1123239 ) on Thursday August 23, 2007 @02:08PM (#20333265)
    By and large, music fans think that music is too expensive, and that much of what is available isn't very good.

    You're damn right. I wouldn't even waste my bandwidth on the vast majority of shit that the record companies are pumping out. But, what am I saying? I'm sure Linday Lohan's next album [stuff.co.nz] would sell millions of copies if it weren't for piracy.
    • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

      by omeomi ( 675045 )
      By and large, music fans think that music is too expensive, and that much of what is available isn't very good.

      As a musician who purchases quite a few albums each month, I don't agree that music is too expensive, but I do agree that most of what is *marketed* isn't very good. There are many great albums that are *available*, and $12-$18 for a really great album is a fair price, in my opinion. The problem is that record companies are often not willing to develop and market the artists who actually have an
      • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

        Another problem is that there are many bands who have one or two good songs, and then the rest of the album is just filler. This is one of the big reasons why iTunes is so popular right now, you can just buy the one or two songs for a couple of bucks, instead of shelling out $13-$15 for the whole CD.

        This brings up an important question though...if they're merely counting number of items downloaded they're not taking into account that someone might be downloading a whole album. Conversely, they're also as

      • There was a study in Sweden that showed that of the amount of money the population at large spend on culture, 2% goes to the actual creators. The rest disappears on the way. Imagine if you could increase that to 20% (still a massive 80% overhead). You could sell CDs for a tenth of the price and still make as much money as you do today, but I'm quite sure people would buy more CDs if they were available legally for a tenth of the price...
  • by ookabooka ( 731013 ) on Thursday August 23, 2007 @02:09PM (#20333273)
    What kind of idiot still believes illicit downloads = lost sales. Simple economics, if the price changes (to nothing) then you're going to see a lot more use. . if right now the world downloads 100 million songs a day that doesn't mean that if piracy didn't exist they would instead buy 100 million songs a day. . .It's just such a blatant twisting of facts who wouldn't see through it? If someone hands you a pen and says "it's free" would you take it? Now if someone handed you a pen and said "10 cents please" would you take it? I bet those "free" pens would move quite a bit quicker even though 10 cents isn't a bad price for a pen. There is a huge difference between "free" and. . well. . anything else really.
    • by Shabbs ( 11692 ) on Thursday August 23, 2007 @02:22PM (#20333497)

      It's just such a blatant twisting of facts who wouldn't see through it?
      Congress.
    • I know someone is going to say it but I don't feel like monitoring my thread: If the guy giving away pens for free stands next to the guy selling him, it will surely his business.

      One thing you have to understand here is that the "pens" aren't the same, especially when you consider music culture. Collectors like having physical media with their favorite bands as well as the artwork, fancy looking CD, etc. It would be like the 10 cents pen comming in a nice box with a booklet on it's history, a warranty, a
    • by Sirch ( 82595 )

      It's just such a blatant twisting of facts who wouldn't see through it?
      Politicians?
    • by Wylfing ( 144940 ) <brian@@@wylfing...net> on Thursday August 23, 2007 @02:32PM (#20333645) Homepage Journal

      It's a lot more distorted than that. When Joe Teenager takes the $20 he would have spent on a CD and spends it on ricing out his car, that money is not lost to the economy. People still make sales. It is still taxed. It only shifts to a different sector. The argument that money not spent on my own company is somehow "lost" to the economy is completely absurd.

      /p.

    • What kind of idiot still believes
      Conservatives.

      You can bring all the evidence you want to the table, but they will conserve their initial position.
    • by shark72 ( 702619 )

      "What kind of idiot still believes illicit downloads = lost sales."

      Nobody, but I'm not sure of your point here. Not even the study referenced in the Ars Technica article makes this claim. I'll presume this is just a failure to RTFA (as most people do), rather than a deliberate attempt to set up a straw man.

  • I'm ashamed... (Score:3, Interesting)

    by cromar ( 1103585 ) on Thursday August 23, 2007 @02:09PM (#20333287)
    that there is so much of this pandering to the big record labels. Where are the studies showing the truth about piracy, sales, and quality of recorded music?

    I'm also ashamed that it has been about 10 years since Napster broke and this is still going on. I feel partly responsible. Time to crank up the anarchy.
    • Where are the studies showing the truth about piracy, sales, and quality of recorded music?

      Well, those studies have to be funded by someone and unfortunately, the big record labels have deep pockets to fund those biased, flawed ones like the one in the article while there is no opposite organization with enough money to counterbalance them.
    • Re:I'm ashamed... (Score:4, Interesting)

      by Per Wigren ( 5315 ) on Thursday August 23, 2007 @02:17PM (#20333411) Homepage

      Where are the studies showing the truth about piracy, sales, and quality of recorded music?
      Here. [pp-international.net]
  • I wonder... (Score:4, Insightful)

    by downix ( 84795 ) on Thursday August 23, 2007 @02:09PM (#20333291) Homepage
    I wonder how many of those downloads are for music one already has? I know I had to P2P some songs because some idiot put protection on my CD, so I could not listen to it in my car (my car and "protected" cd's don't work well).
    • by Winckle ( 870180 )
      I download many songs I have on vinyl. As far as i'm concerned, I already own it.
    • Probably an insignificant amount in the face of the illegal downloads going on.
    • Re: (Score:2, Interesting)

      by Natros ( 985857 )
      By the same token, I wonder how many of the downloaded tracks are from out-of-print CDs? I'm strongly opposed to piracy, but I don't see the problem in sharing music that can't be obtained any other legal way. As soon as they re-release "Chagall Guevara" or the first the "Believer" albums, I'll pull them off of BitTorrent. Until then, share away!
  • Plenty Good (Score:4, Insightful)

    by DaveOne ( 1130433 ) on Thursday August 23, 2007 @02:12PM (#20333333)
    This concept that there is 'no good' music out there is a fallacy. While I agree that most of the mainstream music is pre-packaged twinkie pop, there is an entire subset of music (indie and non) that can be found with a little research. And guess what? It's available on iTunes and other services like eMusic (ad infinitum). And that said, with music being such a subjective topic, it's very difficult to say that one artist is 'bad' when they appeal to such broad demographics of teens that absorb them through their radio waves like mindless drones.
  • On the other hand... (Score:4, Interesting)

    by IvyMike ( 178408 ) on Thursday August 23, 2007 @02:12PM (#20333337)
    "A new study from pro-business think tank Institute for Policy Innovation claims that music piracy accounts for $12.5 billion in lost output to the US economy."

    On the other hand, music piracy accounted for $12.5 billion in gained income to the listeners.
    • by Znork ( 31774 ) on Thursday August 23, 2007 @02:28PM (#20333605)
      "On the other hand, music piracy accounted for $12.5 billion in gained income to the listeners."

      Not only that, the $12.5 billion were instead spent on other things in the economy. Creating work for people like carpenters, contruction workers, resturant workers, etc. Which in turn means no lost taxes at all (in fact, considering the creative accounting of the entertainment business I'd say it's more likely the piracy resulted in $422 million in gained tax).

      So the question is, is the economy better off with more coke snorting music execs, RIAA lawyers, fantasy accountants and boyband promoters, or with the others?

      I'll bet the 71,060 who are currently employed instead of the RIAA lawyers would say piracy was a good thing for the economy.
      • by aj50 ( 789101 )
        Depends...

        If I, living in the UK, fail to spend £11 on the latest album, not much of that will go into the US economy.
    • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

      by laklare ( 204915 )
      I was thinking about something along the same lines. The only way the economy (GDP?) suffers is if the money doesn't circulate. Assuming *some* of those downloaded songs would have been purchased, as long as the money that would have been spent is spent elsewhere or invested (so basically not burned with a flamethrower), it's going to count toward GDP and its going to be taxed. The only possible losers are those who would have profited had it been spent on their CDs instead.
    • More importantly, UNTAXED income. I think that's part of what grabs Congress' attention.
  • by raehl ( 609729 ) <raehl311@@@yahoo...com> on Thursday August 23, 2007 @02:14PM (#20333361) Homepage
    Music piracy INCREASES economic productivity because piracy is ULTRA efficient at copying and distributing songs. When consumers get the same (or more) stuff while LESS resources are required (labor and materials), that's an economic gain.

    Now, it IS also true that piracy causes economic losses for record companies. But, economic losses for record companies are not necessarily bad for the economy, any more than economic losses for carjackers put in prison are bad for the economy.

    To use another example, when the US instituted the Do Not Call list, it caused a lot of losses for companies whose business was paying people to call people who didn't want to be called. And it caused a lot of jobs in that industry to be 'lost'. Was this bad for the economy? NO! All the money that used to get spent interrupting people's dinner just got spent on something else, creating more jobs elsewhere.

    So when someone pirates a song instead of paying for it, yes, the record company has a loss, but the economy does not - that money instead gets spent on something else, like a trip to the movies. That's an economic GAIN - the consumer gets to listen to music AND they get to go to the movies, whereas before, when they were paying for extremely inefficient record company distribution, they only got to listen to the music.
    • For the overall economy that's a zero sum game. Either the money gets spent at the theater or it gets spent on the music. To say there's an economic gain when, in reality, you've spent the same amount of money is like saying that if I steal a car to get me to the movie's it's an economic gain - the only gain is for myself and nobody else. All those caps don't change the fact that you've got a gaping hole in your logic.
      • by kebes ( 861706 )

        To say there's an economic gain when, in reality, you've spent the same amount of money is like saying that if I steal a car to get me to the movie's it's an economic gain - the only gain is for myself and nobody else.

        But the sum of society does benefit. To continue with your car analogy: If everytime someone wanted a car, they created a free copy of someone else's car, then many individual people would be experiencing "economic gain" without an associated economic loss for any other particular person.

        • That free copy is not free. It cost somebody some money to make the original. It cost studio time, equipment, the time to write the words and music, the cover art, arranging, etc. It also costs money to print the cds, which is the only way some people have access to music. I guess in the utopian future, everyone will have a linux computer to rip off the corporations who will have no economic incentive to make anything. You want free music and movies, they are available on the web.

          Music and movies
      • For the overall economy that's a zero sum game. Either the money gets spent at the theater or it gets spent on the music.

        Money is zero-sum; wealth is not. True, the same amount of money gets spent either way, but total wealth has increased, which means society is now better off than before. For the same cost any given consumer can now have both music and a visit to the theatre, rather than just one or the other.

        Copyright is a definite short-term loss to the economy; that much has always been obvious.

    • I know a guy who is only paid $200,000 a year. He wants to make a million dollars a year. His argument is that since he is not paid a million dollars a year, his employer is costing the US economy $800,000 a year!

      I laughed in his face and told him to get out of my office and get back to work or the losses to the economy were going to go up by a couple hundred grand...
  • Quality (Score:4, Interesting)

    by LongSpleen ( 1040158 ) on Thursday August 23, 2007 @02:15PM (#20333381)
    I think the point about the general lack of quality in the music marketplace is right on. Most albums have one or two good songs, so you end up paying $7+ per song that you actually want. My urge to pirate music was drastically lessened when online stores (iTunes was the first one I came across but I don't know if they actually pioneered this or not) started allowing me to buy the specific songs I wanted by themselves. I'm happy to pay 99 cents for a good song. If all the songs on the albums were good then I would buy all the songs and they would make that much more money from me.
  • Bull (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Jerry ( 6400 ) on Thursday August 23, 2007 @02:17PM (#20333409)
    There are no "lost jobs". The jobs were shipped abroad years ago.

    The 12.5 Billion figure stinks with the smell of excrement because of where they pulled it from.
  • Here's my figures... (Score:3, Informative)

    by CodeShark ( 17400 ) <ellsworthpc@[ ]oo.com ['yah' in gap]> on Thursday August 23, 2007 @02:18PM (#20333425) Homepage
    Lost revenue? Yeah right. Funky numbers designed to support DRM and corporate greed more like.

    Assume the average buyer like me spends $15.00 per CD avg. After marketing and retail costs, let's say that an average profit to the music company per unit is a max of 40% or about $6.00, divided by 10-15 tracks per CD or 40 to 60 cents each.


    Now assume that I bought those same number of tracks from iTunes. Cost for distribution is nearly zero. Cost for marketing: nearly zero -- and many of the songs I am looking for aren't current albums, so the profit margin on these songs is even higher. Net profit between Apple and the music company and the musician? let's say 90%, shall we?

    You figure it out. But the politicians probably never will.

    • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

      by russ1337 ( 938915 )
      One of the big problems I see with these studies is they don't consider legitimate on-line sales in their argument. They focus on "CD sales", and "Album sales".

      They argue:
      CD sales are down,
      Cassette sales are down,
      Album sales are down,
      Record stores are hurting
      ...therefore revenue is down

      However:
      iTunes just sold their 3 billionth track.
      wallmart and other stores now sell online
      LEGITIMATE online sales are increasing.

      I've found graphs online that show the increase then decline of vinyl sales
  • by corsec67 ( 627446 ) on Thursday August 23, 2007 @02:20PM (#20333457) Homepage Journal
    If unrealized gains were losses, then any product that didn't sell as well as it might would have "lost sales"

    Hint: you have to have something before you can lose it.
  • ..is that it's too flippin' loud!
  • Legal downloads (Score:3, Insightful)

    by dontthink ( 1106407 ) on Thursday August 23, 2007 @02:24PM (#20333537)
    From what I've seen, the people that tend to buy the music that sells in big numbers (pop, top 40 stuff) also tend to only listen to the 1-3 songs that end up being singles off of that album (look at how successful the "NOW" series of CD's has been). Actually buying the CD single version of the song was never a very popular option b/c the price per content was even more unreasonable than the CD's themselves (and they often weren't available). By letting people buy single tracks from iTunes (or any other online music vendor) around the much more reasonable $.99 per song, the "masses" are able pick out whatever the cool song is. I would think that this would cut into CD sales on the same order of magnitude as piracy.

    As a side note, music piracy has caused me to buy far more CD's than I otherwise would have. My first exposure to some of my favorite bands has been through (illicit) downloaded tracks, and I often end up buying their entire discography. I know, I know, fuck the RIAA - regardless of their evilness, it's not going to stop me from wanting to own a physical copy of Marquee Moon by Television (shameless plug for the album at the top of my playlist right now).
  • by nick_davison ( 217681 ) on Thursday August 23, 2007 @02:26PM (#20333569)

    First and foremost, it appears to fall into the "illicit downloads = lost sales" fallacy, the view that each song obtained over a P2P network is a lost purchase.'
    Very true.

    The problem is that music fans are largely disenchanted with the market. By and large, music fans think that music is too expensive, and that much of what is available isn't very good.
    This is pretty much the same kind of assumption but in reverse.

    They assume: Most of what's pirated is clearly of good enough people would buy it anyway quality that it's a direct loss of sale.

    The poster assumes: Much of what's pirated is of poor enough quality that no one would buy it but high enough quality that they'd go to the trouble of downloading it.

    Both sides have pretty much retreated to their corners and are refusing to meet in a middle. Most likely, the situation is: Piracy, having a lower cost, allows people to consume more than they would otherwise do but that isn't a consumption that would go away if forced to pay the price requested, either. Instead, both retreat to their corners, pointing out how the other one's wrong whilst refusing to look at how their arguments are flawed too. It becomes a somewhat pointless discussion when neither side is capable of considering anything other than their own views.
    • Ah, the old "compromise in the middle" proposal. Seems fair, but it is so easily gamed.

      An example from (where else) automobiles: seat slides. Used to be the seat would not go back any further than a leg's width in front of the back seat. However, govt testing of crash safety with dummies used a simple technique to position the seat: put it in the middle of the slide. So, an easy way for manufacturers to improve car ratings was to extend the slide further back so the front seat could push into the ba

  • Lost revenue (Score:2, Insightful)

    Yes, there may be a link to lost revenue, but I agree with Ars that is isn't 1:1. Also in this case, it isn't a physical good that once stolen, couldn't be sold again. If someone stole something from a store, it can't be sold by the store and the sale is "lost". Downloads are different in that they equate that the person would have purchased it in the first place. I don't agree with stealing content, but the study is lacking some connections.
  • The only reason they are mouthing about "P2P" is that they've heard about it on the evening news, the American news media isn't about reporting anything of consequence, it's about "buzzwords" like "the internet", "terror" and now "P2P" and "mortgage meltdown" and soon (when the talking heads notice it) "web20". The simple fact that I have to watch foreign news broadcasts to find out whats really going on in the world is pretty damn sad, a good deal of time on "The CBS Evening News with Katie Couric" is ded
  • Good enough (Score:2, Interesting)

    by goldspider ( 445116 )
    By and large, music fans think that music is too expensive, and that much of what is available isn't very good.

    Yet it's good enough to download, apparently. The "music isn't good enough to justify paying for it" argument vanishes in a cloud of hypocrisy when people download the very music they disparage.

    When you're a freeloader, any cost is hard to justify, compared to free (beer).
    • by kebes ( 861706 )
      Just because something is "good enough to download" doesn't mean it's good enough to pay for. Or, rather, it means that the value (to the consumer) is above zero but below the asking price.

      There are some cars on the market that I would never buy--they are, in my opinion, overpriced for what you get. However if someone gave one to me, for free, I would use it. In fact I may even go out of my way (take a bus ride across town) to pick it up. It's worth "a bus ride" but not worth "$20,000." Similarly a song may
    • The "music isn't good enough to justify paying for it" argument vanishes in a cloud of hypocrisy when people download the very music they disparage.

      And then re-appears in a puff of logic once people understand basic economics.

      The demand curve is formed by demand at a particular price point. The fact that I would download a song does not have any bearing on whether or not I would be willing to pay $12 for the CD it is on, or $0.99 for the iTunes track, or even if I would be willing to pay $0.01 for it.

    • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

      by blackest_k ( 761565 )
      being good enough to download doesn't mean good enough to use / listen too.
      music is a very subjective thing, even your favorite band has released some real stinkers, should you buy everything they put out even if you don't like it?

      If an album has 10 tracks perhaps 1 or 2 you will hear on the radio, so when you buy an album there is a good chance the first time you hear the other 8 tracks is after you bought it. Not since stairway to heaven has there been a track on an album which was better than the single
  • In the beginning there was... Word of Mouth. A Bard with a Song and performance and got paid from a local Tavern or Hall. Then there was Radio.. Radio provided access to huge amounts of people at once. They could get a taste for the product and then go purchase it because they could not keep the taste. Then there were tapes... Taped Radio was a cheap way of getting music but the music was of a lower standard and so the RIAA never came down.. the advertising was very helpful to them in their view. Musi
  • by gosand ( 234100 ) on Thursday August 23, 2007 @03:00PM (#20334011)
    Wow. Good thing people don't trade external hard drives, with thousands of songs on them.


    If someone ships a hard drive full of music to someone else, would that be a federal crime? What would the value of that music be?


    So let's say I borrow someone's external hard drive, and copy all the MP3s on it to my hard drive. In just a matter of hours, have I just cost the RIAA millions of dollars?


    To be fair, I do think that illegally downloading music does hurt the music industry. But obviously, there is a market there for downloading or iTunes would have failed by now. When Napster burst onto the scene, the music industry should have seen the untapped GOLD mine that is music downloading. Instead, they fought it. They refused to embrace it. Did they think it would just go away? The ability to download and take music with you everywhere has only strengthened the fact that people WANT to listen to music. They still don't get it.


    Years ago, I looked into a concept, and someone had it patented already. But here is what the music industry should do:


    1. Digitize their massive stockpile of music.

    2. Partner with music stores so they carry that music digitally.

    3. Price it right.


    It would be easy to come up with a tiered pricing model.

    A: anything 2 years old or newer: 0.99 per track, or a flat rate per album ($8?)

    B: anything 2 to 10 years old: 0.25 per track, or $3 per album

    C: anything older than 10 years: 0.10 per track or $1 per album


    Think about this... why would people spend hours downloading questionable quality music when they could go into a store and walk away with a CD, DVD, or portable device FULL of music for a decent price? Then, people are in the store - you can sell them DVDs, Tshirts, CDs, etc. You could have a massive digital catalog to choose from. Keep it in the stores, but maybe make the track lists available online so they could submit an order and go in and pick it up. Charge a nominal burning fee for media. You could have "top 100" lists from all genres, people could upload their playlists for others to purchase..... there are LOTS of possiblities.


    Sadly, I am sure this will never see the light of day because it requires the "owners" of the music to open their eyes.

  • Broken window [wikipedia.org]

    Naturally this is not the same context, but it could also be used here. EVEN for the few pirate which COULD have paid for their software, they probably invested their money somewhere else (other goods, banks, whatnot). So yes the music industry lost a "new window" sale, but this certainly was Not LOST to the economy. Or do really the smart-head which make this study that the pirate suddenly took the money which it should have cost them to buy the infriged goods, put it in a waterproof box, a
  • by llZENll ( 545605 ) on Thursday August 23, 2007 @03:24PM (#20334377)
    More like Puff Daddy will have to somehow "get by" with only 13 Bentleys instead of 14.
  • by feepcreature ( 623518 ) on Thursday August 23, 2007 @03:27PM (#20334409) Homepage

    The summary (and the artiicle, for all I know) is not quite right when it says:

    By and large, music fans think that music is too expensive, and that much of what is available isn't very good

    He's just fallen foul of Fingals First Law [*] of chart music - the widely observed principle that the charts always turn to complete rubbish within 5 years of quitting full time education. The cool kids will always be listening to something completely different from what we listened to, and we'll just think the new stuff isn't like music used to be, in the good old days. In turn the cool kids will grow up, and find that the music they like has been superseded.

    The point is, it's older fans who think that much of what's available now is rubbish. There is a constant supply of new fans ready to be programmed with the new stuff.

    Of course, not all of them will buy the new stuff, but that's another issue - and the posters above have covered that pretty well!

    [*] I just made that law up right there! Don't expect to find it in the textbooks till next week at least. We're only at Internet 2.0, you know.

  • Googling around (Score:3, Interesting)

    by Darth Cider ( 320236 ) on Thursday August 23, 2007 @03:35PM (#20334545)
    This think tank is definitely in the business of bias. Here's one [cbpp.org] that concluded tax cuts would not primarily benefit the rich, but Congress didn't buy it. Here's one [forbes.com] cited in Forbes saying that insurance deficiencies are due to government regulation--which Michael Moore's "Sicko" exposes as a horrible untruth. It's easy to find studies like this from IPI. They use Free Market rhetoric to influence lawmakers, but it's that variety of the Free Market that is anticompetitive.

    The music industry, as everyone here likes to say, relies on an outdated business model, but one part of their business model that is quite current and up to date is how it seeks protection through government influence. Sometimes Congress likes to hear distorted studies, because it helps them to have excuses. That's the real issue here.
  • The music industry created simplified music and sold it for a high price. The market is now equalizing. A Beethoven symphony costs the same as a Jay-Z record, but people will not listen to Jay-Z for centuries and find him inspiring. They will listen until the trend is over.

    The music that the music industry has pushed upon us is simpler, dumber, and more repetitive than what we would be buying otherwise. Now that people do not have to pay for it, they do not, because they're only going to listen to it for a
  • Perhaps the universities and technical colleges of America should do a study showing how the sale of CDs (which are after all nothing but a bit of plastic with some dots on it) at high prices represents a loss to the US economy. If CDs were banned, there would be more money available for people to improve their education and vocational skills, thus boosting the US knowledge economy, and making the US more competitive in world markets.

    It's obvious that it is more beneficial to pay money to college lecturers

  • I take issue with this:

    The problem is that music fans are largely disenchanted with the market. By and large, music fans think that music is too expensive, and that much of what is available isn't very good. 58 percent of those responding to a study commissioned by Rolling Stone magazine and the Associated Press said that music is declining in quality.

    The problem is that these sentiments are constants. Sure, ask any given person in any given year and they'll tell you that they think music is too expensiv

  • by scottsk ( 781208 ) on Thursday August 23, 2007 @03:44PM (#20334701) Homepage
    Saying "piracy" cuts into sales ignores the fact that a whole lot of file sharing involves music the record companies won't sell anyone for any price. What about all the hundreds of b-sides, remixes, demos, etc that are not in print? That was what I mainly used Napster for, grabbing digitized copies of music I used to have on LP and cassette that was never put on CD, or was once on CD singles but was out of print by the time I wanted to purchase it. The most disappointing thing about iTunes to me is it's just the same old stuff already on CDs. Why don't the record companies open their archives and put out of print music online? It would cost them almost nothing to have digital copies available to download.
  • by hrvatska ( 790627 ) on Thursday August 23, 2007 @03:44PM (#20334703)
    Last I heard concert attendance and revenue were down or stagnating. Since you can't pirate concerts, it would seem to indicate that people just don't find the music being produced today compelling enough to spend an ever increasing amount of money on. I'm sure concert promoters would like to have something like file sharing to blame poor attendance on, but they're stuck with the sad fact that demand for their product, at the price they're asking, isn't what it once was. The RIAA needs to realize they're in the same position.
  • Propaganda machines!

    Pfft... Think-tank my crusty ass. The only thing they "think" about is who they can sell out to.

    A real think tank would start off a report on this topic with the truth.
    "Recording companies that hide behind RIAA are misguided by employing armies of lawyers, instead of one or two good innovative entrepreneurs".
    "P2P networks are the definitive distribution model of the digital economy".
    "Recording companies that hide behind RIAA either are so out of touch with reality they'd rather
  • The problem with this whole issue is that the economic impact of "piracy" is 100% impossible to measure.

    The RIAA is wrong to assume that everyone who downloads a song would have otherwise paid for it, and to claim that as a lost sale. They also don't account for people who hear a downloaded track and decide to buy the album (or individual track(s) via iTunes).

    Downloaders are wrong to claim moral justification simply because they are unwilling to pay the set price for music. They are also wrong to assume t
  • Taking the Barry Bonds defense, how many of these users who downloaded songs via a P2P application "knowingly" were downloading songs illegally? Apparently the Feds can't even beat that one. Now, you IPI accountants, figure that into your numbers and no sales were lost. The IPI, MPAA and all Virgin Records, Tower Records and Record Town stores are probably more interested in catching my friend from 15 years ago who could walk in and out of a music store in 10 minutes with 50 CDs in his jacket.

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