Australian Icebreaker Tries To Get Through To Stranded Antarctic Research Ship 188
The shipload of researchers and tourists stuck in the Antarctic ice are still stuck. A Chinese icebreaker, the Xue Long, or Snow Dragon, has gotten tantalizingly close but was hampered by "unusually thick ice." Now, an Australian vessel, the Aurora Australis, will attempt to rescue the 74 people aboard the MV Akademik Shokalskiy.
Vague News (Score:4, Funny)
I love how the NYT and BBC reports on this story completely neglect to mention that the stuck ship is full of climate scientists out to gather global warming evidence. Just a complete oversight I'm sure. Also: consensus.
Re:Vague News (Score:5, Informative)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-25540040 ... ... ... ...
Seventy-four scientists, tourists and crew are on the Shokalskiy.
Despite being trapped, the scientists have continued their experiments, measuring temperature and salinity through cracks in the surrounding ice.
The goal of the modern-day Australasian Antarctic Expedition is to repeat many of the original measurements and studies of the Mawson expedition to see how facets of the environment have changed over the past century.
Completely neglected? Are we looking at the same BBC reports?
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BBC? This is a Liberal TV Station paid by Obama and the Climate Lobby with the only aim of getting the tax money of the hardworking Americans.
Re:Vague News (Score:4, Insightful)
Vauge conclusions (Score:2, Insightful)
I love how the NYT and BBC reports on this story completely neglect to mention that the stuck ship is full of climate scientists out to gather global warming evidence.
Just like you are vaguely hinting that locally colder than usual weather somehow is evidence that the climate is not changing. Do you have any conception of the difference between climate and weather?
Re:Vauge conclusions (Score:4, Insightful)
But scientists have been equating ice levels with climate for decades.....
Re:Vauge conclusions (Score:4, Informative)
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And Gore [pjmedia.com] told us scientists had proof the Arctic would be ice free by 2013.
Lets tally the results so far:
AGW correct predictions - 0
AGW incorrect prediction - 1340
Well, I'm going to use the scientific method and not listen to people who are ALWAYS wrong when they predict doom and gloom unless I am taxed more.
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Re:Vague conclusions (Score:1)
I have seen articles by two different scientists in my local paper... one alleging that our recent floods were proof of global warming... the other claiming proof of global warming in the decade-long drought.
Rain, snow, ice, drought, wind, hurricanes, no hurricanes, tornadoes, no tornadoes, heat, cold, record highs, record lows -- ALL proof of global warming.
In fact, it doesn't matter what the weather does. Global Warming (TM) is real because it makes weather change, and the weather is changing, so Global
BULLSHIT (Score:2)
First off, it's not locally vague. It's been documented globally.
So here is the reason why Global Warming is bullshit science. It has zero ability to be proved.
Any big storm, earthquake tsunami, hurricane, tornado, snow storm, heat wave, drought = PROOF OF GLOBAL WARMING
But at the same time, GWA always decry local/regional not equal ...blah blah blah...you're such a stupid denier. Well you know what, we've shown major regional coolings. We've shown planetary coolings. Heck, we chould show you absolute pro
Alll the news.... (Score:2)
I love how the NYT and BBC reports on this story completely neglect to mention that the stuck ship is full of climate scientists out to gather global warming evidence. Just a complete oversight I'm sure.
On Twitter, Documenting an Antarctic Journey and a Countdown to a Rescue [nytimes.com]
Four embedded videos from the expedition team. Including a seven minute introduction to the project.
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I guess with all the global warming conferences that happened during cold snaps, this just got too boringly regular and isn't news anymore.
Hypothesis: global warming scientists attract cold weather. This clearly means we need more of them!
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And you forgot to think that when it's cold in Antratica the ice is happily frozen on the continent ;)
And that when the ice is swimming in the water and screwing up ships it's because it is not in the continent any more. How?
UFO? A million of IPCC minions cutting it into pieces and throwing it into the ocean? Or just plain old melting?
I assume that it's options 1 and 2, of course. We all know that the Illuminati Pokemon Collectors Club (IPCC) is behind the UFO and is using millions of abducted slaves to br
Aurora Australis (Score:5, Informative)
Re:Aurora Australis (Score:4, Interesting)
I was wondering why they only operate in the northern hemisphere.
It's because it requires cold water to cool its reactor. Tropic water is apparently not cold enough, so it can't get to the southern hemisphere without exploderating. Or something.
Send the American icebreaker! (Score:1)
The good ship "Paul Ryan", which will anchor safely off the ice pack and send them pictures of the sailors aboard enjoying fine meals and swimming pools to give them incentive to break free of the ice on their own! We do these people no favours, killing them with kindness by "helping" them out of the jam they got themselves in. We can't have these ships oppressing us with their pleas of imminent personal disaster. ...and you thought that this one topic surely couldn't be dragged into American political
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A tiny bit of money is not even worth mentioning if you can help someone out with a serious problem.
Especially if it buys you a lot of positive publicity and goodwill, which you would mostly lose again if you brought up the issue of money.
That is who it works for people, and it that is also how it works in international relations.
Therefor the Chinese and Australian taxpayer will likely pay for it.
Re: Send the American icebreaker! (Score:1)
Sailors live with the shared knowledge that they can easily suffer a similar fate. I believe rescue is part of the maritime laws. Even in war, enemies are rescued.
Re: Send the American icebreaker! (Score:5, Informative)
Copy and pasted from http://www.maritimeinjurylawyersblog.com/2013/02/rescues_at_sea_the_united_stat.html [maritimein...rsblog.com]
According to federal law, 45 USC Section 2304, the master of a vessel must aid anyone at sea who is in danger of losing their lives, as long as such rescue can be performed without serious threat to the master, the master’s vessel, and those on board. However, maritime law is in agreement with common law in that an individual, including a vessel master, has this statutory duty to assist those in peril at sea only when a certain relationship exists, such as carrier/passenger, vessel/seaman, and employer/employee; also, whoever has caused a danger at sea must aid any persons or property they have endangered. Further, whether because of an established relationship or as a Good Samaritan, if an individual attempts a rescue which results in further harm due to negligence, recklessness, or wantonness, he or she may be held liable for damages.
Re:Send the American icebreaker! (Score:4, Funny)
I think we need to pause and think about the what's really behind the story here:
The Russians put our camera made by our German scientists and your film made by your German scientists into their satellite made by their German scientists.
This rescue will end when the a US nuclear submarine pops up through the ice sheet, and a bunch of marines in snow gear jump out. But then a Russian airplane will toss out a bunch of paratroopers in snow gear will land.
A suspenseful standoff is guaranteed . . .
This stranded tourists and scientists story is just a cover for the public to hide what is really going on . . .
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Didn't you know that everybody in the Coast Guard has to be over six feet tall? That way, if their ship ever sinks, they can wade ashore.
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Maybe if the U.S. government would budget some funds for the U.S. Coast Guard instead of blowing trillions on a dozen aircraft carriers that will all be sunk in the first 2 weeks of a war.
Copyrighted materials of the Church Of Warminetics (Score:4, Funny)
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So this is what basementfaring people are like.
How is ice forming in the summer? (Score:3, Interesting)
I am aware Antarctica is one of the coldest places on earth, yet when I lived 60 degrees away from the equator in Alaska it never got down to 7F (the degree in which salt water freezes) by summer. It would not even hit freezing until September or October?!This is not 90 degrees on the dead center of the geographic south pole or anything and is surrounded by water which moderates the climate.
The ice should be rapidly melting?!
Re:How is ice forming in the summer? (Score:5, Informative)
The ice-strengthened vessel is within 100nm of Dumont D'Urville with a typical December daytime temperature hovering around freezing (http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDT60803/IDT60803.89642.shtml). This ice did not suddenly appear in clear water because it got cold, the ship was sailing through broken ice floes when weather conditions pushed the ice and the ship into tight formation. The water between the sheets froze and the rest, as they say, is history.
Re:How is ice forming in the summer? (Score:4, Funny)
At that kind of distance, is it really even worth mentioning? If I'm 100 nanometers away from something, I don't say "I'm 100nm away from X," I say "I'm right next to X." Why don't they just disembark now?
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If you're less than a millimetre away from the research base you're trying to reach, leaving your ship would seem to be the appropriate course of action.
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He is implying latitude.
42 degrees from the equator is about where New York City and Chicago are which get snow and significant winters. If it is Mediterranean that far then that is very warm for that latitude.
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A comparison of San Francisco and Melbourne would be more apt - both 37 degrees adrift of the equator.
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But it is growing.
60 degrees south is about equivalent to Alaska distance from the equator. It is 20C or 68F on average inland during the summer at this time. Not 7F. The ice which plenty is left at that latitude is still there but is rapidly melting which it does from glacial run off. They do not grow by June which is the same as December down at that latitude.
In fact with 20 hours of daylight rapid melt would be the logical conclusion as the water would be warming up and not cooling to form thicker ice at
This again? (Score:2)
This sort of shit is not funny any more and just makes the people spreading it look like morons. They don't seem to understand that their arguments against expertise are undermining themselves unless they are also mediocre at what they do. To the above poster - I suggest leaving it to the
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It could have something to do with salinity. Typical seawater freezes at about -2 C because of the high salt content, but if the local salinity has dropped because of the introduction of a large amount of fresh meltwater then it might freeze closer to 0 C. Warming could lead to more meltwater, lower salinity and therefore more ice under certain specific conditions.
The article states that the crew is measuring both temperature and salinity, so we'll find out if the conditions are met and that is a possib
I hope (Score:4, Funny)
I hope they don't get eaten by the polar bears
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ARGH! KILLER PENGUINS!
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Then why are they called POLAR bears if they're not at the South Pole? Hmm? Yeah, I can see your mouth agape at my impugnable FACTS and LOGIC. It's fine, I get that a lot.
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> Then why are they called POLAR bears if they're not at the South Pole?
ask the cartesian bears.
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Never heard of the polar express?
Skip the boat? (Score:2)
Being serious here, since they are stuck in an ice pack, is it stable enough to get as close as possible then drive out to rescue them? Sure, you will lose the ship as its crushed into oblivion, but you will save the human lives.
No, i haven't seen overhead pictures, thus the question.
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Yeah, I was wondering about an air rescue if there are only 74 people on board. I mean, the ice is thick enough to strand a large ship and prevent the passage of an ice breaker, it should easily hold the weight of a large military transport helicopter.
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That is likely why, according to TFA, that the Chinese icebreaker - which happens to have a helicopter - is standing by even though it can't ram through the ice.
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The ship is not in any immediate danger: it is a Finnish built ship designed to operate in conditions of ice, although it is not an icebreaker itself. It is not being crushed. It's just stuck. The ice is a couple meters thick and the people on the ship could climb off and trudge to safety if there were some imminent danger. If they didn't want to do that -- and it would be hard to fault them for not savoring the prospect of trudging half a dozen miles across shifting pack ice -- they could hitch a ride on t
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The ship got trapped because broken sea ice got crunched together by wind and waves around them, then froze in place. Moving ice does not freeze together into nice smooth sheets that are amenable to driving on. As the wind and waves continue to work, the ice surface will buckle, heavy, split, reform, and generally create a confused mess that make for difficult headway even afoot. Check out some of the pictures from Shackleton' [google.com]
Two standard deviations more (Score:5, Informative)
The Antarctic Sea Ice Extent is currently more than two standard deviations greater than the 1981 to 2010 average according to the NSIDC.
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_stddev_timeseries.png [nsidc.org]
Not what one would expect in a warming climate. Or maybe it is ... ex post.
Antarctica Sea Ice Reaches Record High: Doesn't Refute Global Warming
http://guardianlv.com/2013/09/antarctic-sea-ice-at-record-high-doesnt-refute-global-warming/ [guardianlv.com]
Nothing Refutes Global Warming (Score:2)
If the earth became a ball of ice. It would still be blamed on global warming. The only possible thing that could disprove global warming is if the earth suddenly went through a 10 year period of zero temperature change in any region. That is about the only thing that could disprove Global Warming.
And if that happened, we'd have a much worse concern than global warming.
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We could have an iceball earth scenario next year, and the surviving "climate scientists" would STILL claim it was CO2 emissions causing it.
You're so busy building and knocking down that "straw man" that I'm surprised you heroically took the time to post your "thoughts".
Now, GTFO of this tech site and go to some Young Earth Creationist site where the fruits of science are properly mocked.
Asshole.
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But I can't prove anthropogenic climate change with anything but a computer model... and I've made too many computer models in my day for that to be very convincing.
Have you seen climate models, or do you just deny the ones that you don't like due to your standard of "truthiness"?
Ars Technica covers climate models nicely: (see page 2)
Steve Easterbrook, a professor of computer science at the University of Toronto, has been studying climate models for several years. “I'd done a lot of research in the past studying the development of commercial and open source software systems, including four years with NASA studying the verification and validation processes used on their spacecraft flight control software,” he told Ars.
When Easterbrook started looking into the processes followed by climate modeling groups, he was surprised by what he found. “I expected to see a messy process, dominated by quick fixes and muddling through, as that's the typical practice in much small-scale scientific software. What I found instead was a community that takes very seriously the importance of rigorous testing, and which is already using most of the tools a modern software development company would use (version control, automated testing, bug tracking systems, a planned release cycle, etc.).”
“I was blown away by the testing process that every proposed change to the model has to go through,” Easterbrook wrote. “Basically, each change is set up like a scientific experiment, with a hypothesis describing the expected improvement in the simulation results. The old and new versions of the code are then treated as the two experimental conditions. They are run on the same simulations, and the results are compared in detail to see if the hypothesis was correct. Only after convincing each other that the change really does offer an improvement is it accepted into the model baseline.”
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Replying to self: broken link == missing link:
Ars Technica climate model coverage [arstechnica.com]
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If climate models were accurate, their predictions would be accurate. All of the models have failed on their predictions. This means, they are inaccurate and are not accurately reflecting the real world model.
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If climate models were accurate, their predictions would be accurate. All of the models have failed on their predictions. This means, they are inaccurate and are not accurately reflecting the real world model.
They don't make predictions, they make projections; if you can't get that right, you're worse than the climate models.
Similar to confusing weather with climate.
Newtonian physics doesn't make accurate predictions (at relativistic speeds, for example), but it's still accurate (enough) for models. Or was Isaac Newton a "physicist" instead of a physicist because he didn't cover all cases?
Ah....and please tell me what your definition of a (Score:2)
A projection is.
In my definition, it is "if I have x, y, z, and it continues on path q, I can project that it will continue to do so with a given accuracy". But as soon as I open my big fat mouth and say that "q will be such", I've changed from a projection of a model to a prediction. And when ALL of those predictions are wrong and revised. You start sounding like the religious nutjob on the corner who keeps changing his sign reading the "End of the World is October 2011"
And yes, Newtonian physics fails a
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A projection is.
In my definition, it is "if I have x, y, z, and it continues on path q, I can project that it will continue to do so with a given accuracy". But as soon as I open my big fat mouth and say that "q will be such", I've changed from a projection of a model to a prediction. And when ALL of those predictions are wrong and revised.
That's where I think you're mistaken; they don't say, "q will be such", they state something more like, "if q continues to be such, we expect ___ with an X% level of confidence" (ya know, like scientists tend to do).
I found this IPCC glossary [grida.no]:
A climate prediction or climate forecast is the result of an attempt to produce a most likely description or estimate of the actual evolution of the climate in the future, e.g. at seasonal, interannual or long-term time scales. See also: Climate projection and Climate (change) scenario.
vs
A projection of the response of the climate system to emission or concentration scenarios of greenhouse gases and aerosols, or radiative forcing scenarios, often based upon simulations by climate models. Climate projections are distinguished from climate predictions in order to emphasise that climate projections depend upon the emission/concentration/ radiative forcing scenario used, which are based on assumptions, concerning, e.g., future socio-economic and technological developments, that may or may not be realised, and are therefore subject to substantial uncertainty.
Finally, the IPCC projections are criticized for being, if anything, too conservative in their projections. Time and time again they've said X in Y years and in Y - Z years X is seen to be having an effect. And when something stupid does come out (Himalayan glaciers
Get to da choppa (Score:3, Interesting)
Seriously, anyone thought about rescuing them using helicopters? Rescue the people, worry about the ship later...
It has been thought of (Score:2)
Seriously, anyone thought about rescuing them using helicopters?
That has been thought of, and is being considered as the last resort.
The Chinese ice breaker, the Xue Long (Ice Dragon) has a chopper on board, and the vessel is only some 7KM away from the Russian vessel.
What happens to the ship if they leave it? (Score:2)
Is it trapped forever? Will the ice crush it and cause a nasty little fuel spill? Or is the ship's hull strong enough that it will just be frozen in place either forever or until it can be salvaged?
Irony (Score:1)
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Right, cause good preperation results in abandoning ship.
Unusually thick ice???? (Score:2)
Huh...what?
Global Warming, I thought all of the ice was unusually thin and melting? These must of been pretty dumb scientists. :-P
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This is what happens when you use GWA computer models on your GPS. But the computer models said this part of the ocean would be ice free by now....
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I believe in Darwin
engineering reality (Score:3, Funny)
That Australian Ice Breaker ... (Score:2)
... Aurora Australis hasn't been reporting its location since Christmas day.
The latest reported location for that vessel was recorded at 2013-12-25 07:33:00 (UTC), while it was at the latitude/longitude of: -65.78115 / 109.8082, with speed and course of 13.8 kn / 4Â, according to http://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:109.8082/centery:-65.78115/zoom:8/oldmmsi:503043000/olddate:lastknown [marinetraffic.com]
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Yea and Ice breaker should do one thing and do it well oh and be a file.
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massive overpopulation of lobsters in New England,
That doesn't sound like a problem to me. Lobsters are delicious.
No,... (Score:2)
None of those issues mentioned are due to global warming. Rather, they're due to overfishing. And have been a significant problem even during the 70's when cold had people talking a mini ice age.
Heck, New England Cod has been in decline since before modern industry. Take the mismanagement of commercial fishing and multiply that by a population that is twice as big as it was in the 50's.
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Except, I can prove Gravity and replicate its affect. And predict it with a reasonable amount of accuracy.
None of which can be done with global warming.
Re:I thought that... (Score:5, Insightful)
Yes, of course: Because when the average temperature in December rises from -18 C to -16 C means that it's impossible for water to even consider freezing.
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I dunno. The flappy headed environmentalists have been telling us for years(closer to decades) that there will be no ice in the arctic or antarctic. And the met centre in the UK went as far as to say a few years ago that "snow would be a thing of the past, and would only be read about in books." If there was a great fraud being perpetrated that people are cluing in on, then it would be the doom and gloom hoax of our lifetime.
Re:I thought that... (Score:4, Informative)
No they did not. If that happens most of us are going to need really long snorkels. If you are going to suggest that others are lying it's best not to lie to do so - otherwise you come off as being dishonest.
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Antarctica is an archeapelago. Just islands under that ice, not a continent.
WUT?!?
http://www.universetoday.com/102754/what-does-antarctica-look-like-under-the-ice/ [universetoday.com]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Antarctica_surface.jpg [wikipedia.org]
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No they did not.
Really? Odd that I've run across no less than two stories today claiming just that. One from atmos.uiuc, and the other via climate change websites. Can't remember where I saw the last but oh yes, those doom and gloom folks are reporting just that. Don't worry if it doesn't fit your narrative.
Dr Stranglelove quote is appropriate (Score:2)
President Me
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-18 to -16 is not a drop.
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Some Antarctic ice thickening after massive Arctic ice thinning, is still a net global climate change; with plenty of potential ramifications --- most likely highly negative ramifications; when it comes to world climates: climate change = potential extinctions.
Re:Antarctica ... Ice (Score:5, Insightful)
Also why use ice area/volume as a standard of the global temperature?
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... perhaps because for years deniers have been looking for observations that buck the trend.
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... perhaps because for years deniers have been looking for observations that buck the trend.
Strange, when I was a kid, we called looking for observations that counter a scientific theory "science".
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Risking a whoosh ...
Relax. Comments as idiotic as AC's make a dull thud, not a whoosh.
Hey AC: Want to hang out with like minded people giggling inanely until they wet themselves? http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/12/29/saving-the-antarctic-scientists-er-media-er-activists-er-tourists-trapped-by-sea-ice/#more-100034 [wattsupwiththat.com].
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Yes Virginia - Polar Bears can swim and run on the ever thickening Ice!
I'm sure they can
But I'm also pretty sure they cant swim all the way to Antarctica .
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How many researchers in a 'shipload'?
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The last of the hapless crew having survived through cannibalism will die. Thus the un-happy fate of the 'anthropocene' "researchers" will end. A nasty tale on a nastier fallacy of Anthropogenic Global Warming.
You trying to write a screen play or are you just an idiot?