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Earth

The Top Weather/Climate Events of 2015 (wunderground.com) 256

Layzej writes: With only a few stations left to report, 2015 is virtually certain to beat 2014's record as the planet's warmest year since record keeping began in 1880. The new record was caused by the long-term warming of the planet due to human-caused emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide, combined with a extra bump in temperature due to the strongest El Niño event ever recorded in the Eastern Pacific. Record warm ocean temperatures in the tropics in 2015 led to a global coral bleaching event, which is expected to cause a loss of 10 — 20% of all coral worldwide. Weather Underground recounts several other records that accompanied the heat including the most intense hurricane ever observed in the Western Hemisphere, the ongoing agricultural fires in Indonesia — the most expensive disaster in Indonesia's history estimated at $16 billion in damages, flooding in America and India, and record central pacific hurricane activity.
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The Top Weather/Climate Events of 2015

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  • >> the most intense hurricane ever observed in the Western Hemisphere...and record central pacific hurricane activity.

    I believe the biggest knock on Gore's "Inconvenient Truth" movie was the prediction of lots of new super-hurricanes that hasn't come true, especially not in recent years. I'd be careful trying to link the two again...

    • Re: (Score:2, Funny)

      by Anonymous Coward

      Don't you understand BASIC SCIENCE?

      Extreme weather of any kind is evidence of global warming.
      Mild weather isn't evidence against global warming because weather isn't the same as climate.
      Data that shows warming is obviously valid evidence.
      Data that shows anything other than warming is invalid because the measurements must have missed ocean heat sinks or something, or obviously it would have shown warming.

      So sick of you deniers who don't even understand basic scientific method.

    • by sjames ( 1099 ) on Friday January 08, 2016 @05:03PM (#51264689) Homepage Journal

      So you take the most powerful hurricane ever to be evidence AGAINST a prediction of super hurricanes?

      • So you take the most powerful hurricane ever to be evidence AGAINST a prediction of super hurricanes?

        Actually, yes. It was the most powerful hurricane, but it wasn't the most powerful tropical cyclone. Not by a long shot. There were 4 to 7 more intense cyclones [wikipedia.org], all in the West Pacific during the 1950s-1970s. (A lot of the early measurements were in inches of Hg, while recent measurements are in mm of Hg. The uncertainty in the measurement of the early "880 mmHg" storms overlaps with the uncertainty in

        • by haruchai ( 17472 )

          More heat in the climate system or more warm tropical water are only a couple of several key factors in the formation of cyclones.
          Another is the absence of wind shear. If one of the outcomes of a warming world in greater wind shear where hurricanes & cyclones form, then the trend will be towards fewer really large storms.

          http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/keyno... [noaa.gov]

        • by sjames ( 1099 )

          That's a great deal of effort to downplay the whole thing, but doesn't change my statement even a jot. Even if it was the smallest and weakest weather event ever measured, it's existence doesn't contradict a prediction that there would be more strong storms, it just doesn't support it.

          However, it was rather large in a place where they don't typically get that large. That could be a fluke or part of a trend, but it certainly doesn't HARM the case for stronger storms.

          As for the larger case of storm activity,

    • by Xyrus ( 755017 )

      >> the most intense hurricane ever observed in the Western Hemisphere...and record central pacific hurricane activity.

      I believe the biggest knock on Gore's "Inconvenient Truth" movie was the prediction of lots of new super-hurricanes that hasn't come true, especially not in recent years. I'd be careful trying to link the two again...

      That was a prediction for the end of the century, not the next decade. And even then, there are fairly large error bars still around any such claims since relatively small scale phenomena like Hurricanes are far more subject to local weather conditions than climate conditions.

    • >> the most intense hurricane ever observed in the Western Hemisphere...and record central pacific hurricane activity.

      I believe the biggest knock on Gore's "Inconvenient Truth" movie was the prediction of lots of new super-hurricanes that hasn't come true, especially not in recent years. I'd be careful trying to link the two again...

      I predict that you will not die of an aggressive cancer in the next few months.

      I pray that my prediction is as "wrong" as your colorization of the hypotheses presented in An Inconvenient Truth.

      That is, I hope you die – soon. People like you are stymieing real political and technological progress that can address this threat to human existence.

      No need to 'Save the Earth' — It will do just fine without humans around to foul it up.

  • by NotDrWho ( 3543773 ) on Friday January 08, 2016 @04:28PM (#51264421)

    Trying to find a "top ten" list of the hottest and coldest years. Can't find it on NOAA's website. Anyone?

    • Re: (Score:2, Interesting)

      by NotDrWho ( 3543773 )

      Come on, if this is the hottest average worldwide year on record, there must be a list of average temps for each year SOMEWHERE, right?

      • by dywolf ( 2673597 )

        You could have shown an ounce of intelligence and tried clicking the link in the summary ( http://icons.wxug.com/hurrican... [wxug.com] ).
        Of course that assumes you know how to read a chart.

        So let me help you:
        See the tallest red lines?
        Those are the biggest years.
        Find the 10 tallest, and there's your list.
        Now repeat for the blue ones.

        • That chart is not showing what I'm asking for. It shows "Global Departure of Temperature from Average."

          I just need a simple list of average temps from each year, so I can do a top ten list of hottest and coldest. Not a chart, not using "departure from average" or whatever the fuck. Just just a simple list of average worldwide temps for each year going back as far as possible.

          • Re: (Score:2, Funny)

            by PopeRatzo ( 965947 )

            Not a chart, not using "departure from average" or whatever the fuck.

            Those goddamn SJW charts and graphs.

          • by Layzej ( 1976930 )
            Here: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gist... [nasa.gov] Add a constant to each year if you fear anomalies.
          • by dywolf ( 2673597 )

            so what you're saying is not only do you not know how to use google, but you dont understand math either.
            hint: the years with the highest departure from average are the same as the hottest years

          • That chart is not showing what I'm asking for. It shows "Global Departure of Temperature from Average."

            I just need a simple list of average temps from each year, so I can do a top ten list of hottest and coldest. Not a chart, not using "departure from average" or whatever the fuck. Just just a simple list of average worldwide temps for each year going back as far as possible.

            Well then you know the old saying, "If you want it done right, go fuck yourself." Find your own data and quit bitching about it when others try to help.

    • by dywolf ( 2673597 )

      What? They don't have Google in your reality?

      Here: http://lmgtfy.com/?q=annual+gl... [lmgtfy.com]

    • Wow a climate change denialist^Wskeptic and someone who rants and raves about teh evul SJW.

      I award you today's "walking stereotype" prize.

    • by hey! ( 33014 ) on Friday January 08, 2016 @05:54PM (#51265179) Homepage Journal

      Here's the data [ornl.gov].

      If you look through the data you'll see these are the ten coldest years after 1849, coolest first:
            1911, 1909, 1904, 1908, 1862, 1910, 1903, 1864, 1917, 1893.

      These are the ten hottest years prior to 2015, hottest first:
          2014, **2010, *2005, ***/++1998, **2003, *2006, **2009, **2002, *2007, 2013.

      I've also noted El Niño years with stars and La Niña with plusses:
      * = weak El Niño year
      ** = moderate El Niño year
      ***/++ = 1998 started as a very strong El Niño and ended as a moderate La Niña.

      2015 is an El Niño year (which tend to be hot), but is not in this dataset yet. Note that 8/10 of the top 10 years have an El Niño component, except 2013 and 2014, which were "ordinary" but very warm years.

      I didn't note the ENSO (El Niño / Southern oscillation) status for the coldest years, because all ten of the coldest years are before 1912 and there is no reliable ENSO data for before 1950 so far as I know. However it's a safe bet that many of these were La Niñas, which tend to be colder than average. The last colder-than-average year was 1985, which was a La Niña; all six La Niña years since have been warmer than the 1850-2014 average. The last "ordinary" (non-ENSO) year that was colder than average was 1970.

      Here is the average temperature anomaly by decade:
      Decade Anomaly
      1850 -0.3174
      1860 -0.3296
      1870 -0.2548
      1880 -0.3
      1890 -0.3623
      1900 -0.4099
      1918 -0.2494
      1930 -0.1182
      1940 -0.0036
      1950 -0.061
      1960 -0.0535
      1970 -0.0769
      1980 +0.0943
      1990 +0.274
      2000 +0.4622
      2010 +0.4998 // partial, obviously

      Note that all the decades up to the 70s are colder than the "average" year because "average" is dominated by the acceleration of warming from the 90s to present.

      I hope this helps.

      • Here is the average temperature anomaly by decade....

        Thanks. I always like to point out warming is nothing new also. It is an interglacial after all so that is an easy bet.

        Without an understanding of natural climate, there’s no strong basis for predicting climate change

        http://business.financialpost.... [financialpost.com]

        • Except this interglacial reached its peak forcing from Milankovitch Cycles around 6,000 to 8,000 years ago and has been slowly cooling since then. From Milankovitch Cycles alone you would conclude that the cooling would continue. But it isn't.

      • by whoda ( 569082 )

        Can we get the data for years 10,000 BC to 1848 as well please? I'd like to check against those numbers.

    • Trying to find a "top ten" list of the hottest and coldest years. Can't find it on NOAA's website. Anyone?

      Here's a page that has a table that ranks the years from 1880 to 2014 [noaa.gov] with 1 being the coldest and 135 being the warmest. You can suss out the bottom and top ten from it. It doesn't have 2015 yet because the official numbers haven't come out yet but you can bet that 2015 will be ranked 136.

    • by Layzej ( 1976930 )

      Trying to find a "top ten" list of the hottest and coldest years.

      http://icons.wxug.com/hurrican... [wxug.com]

  • Lets just adjust it away in the models.
  • by DogDude ( 805747 ) on Friday January 08, 2016 @05:10PM (#51264773) Homepage
    Every time there's anything about climate change, there are tons and tons more AC posts than usual, and of course, a large majority of them are making fun of the idea that humankind can change our climate. I wonder if it's just a few nutters, or a team of people paid by the oil industry to do this...
    • Tons and tons of paid posters here

      Thanks for being so forthcoming.

    • Every time there's anything about climate change, there are tons and tons more AC posts than usual, and of course, a large majority of them are making fun of the idea that humankind can change our climate. I wonder if it's just a few nutters, or a team of people paid by the oil industry to do this...

      I think it's more that certain people are trolled by certain topics. They don't comment on much, but bring out a topic that they're passionate about and they come out of the woodwork to express their views. I'll do the same thing on some right leaning or libertarian blogs, I don't troll, but on some topics I think it's important to challenge the consensus and try to sway people.

      On Slashdot the two big ones seem to be global warming and feminism (particularly in gaming or software development). I don't think

    • Yes the oil industry cares about a bunch of posts on an obscure website like Slashdot. Pull yourself together man.

      Or a more realistic hypothesis: A science related matter posted on a nerdy site with loads of political bullshit to spare brings the nutters out of the woodwork, because opinions on global warming are like arseholes, everyone has one, whereas relatively few people give a shit about Oracle being the database of the year.

  • by 110010001000 ( 697113 ) on Friday January 08, 2016 @05:26PM (#51264933) Homepage Journal
    Now with the Paris accord in place, and the fact that the EU has been reducing their Co2 emissions every year since we learned that Co2 emissions cause climate change, we are on the right path. What is that you say? The EU has been INCREASING their Co2 emissions every year, not reducing them??? Very strange. Why would they do that? I thought they didn't like AGW. So why are they doing the opposite?
  • You don't have to sell the truth, it sells itself. Conversely, if you find yourself having to sell something, it probably isn't the full truth.

    Just sayin'

    • Do you live in a cave? The truth selling itself is so last century. Today outright lies have far more credibility.

  • Weather Underground recounts several other records that accompanied the heat including the most intense hurricane ever observed in the Western Hemisphere, the ongoing agricultural fires in Indonesia — the most expensive disaster in Indonesia's history estimated at $16 billion in damages, flooding in America and India, and record central pacific hurricane activity.

    So? Those are just weather. And possibly arson. They are not indicative of climate change of any kind.

  • While I'm sure the climate is warming, and I'm sure that humans are exacerbating the trend, it is hard to be impressed with the alarmist rants when the models used and raw data are not made available. When even the people developing the models cannot explain what they are doing. When the data is massaged beyond recognition. Not to mention that rather than being treated as a ecological problem, AGW has morphed into a treatise on income inequality, rich nations vs poor ones, etc.

    "In early 2001, CPC was reques

    • While I'm sure the climate is warming, and I'm sure that humans are exacerbating the trend, it is hard to be impressed with the alarmist rants when the models used and raw data are not made available.

      If you think the models and raw data are not available you haven't looked very hard. Of course I doubt you'd know what to do with them if you got them.

  • Slashdotters love data, right?

    Here is the 10000 year view of the situation:
    http://jonova.s3.amazonaws.com... [amazonaws.com]

    Here's the data from the Arctic:
    http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/ice... [ocean.dmi.dk]
    http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/old... [ocean.dmi.dk]

    Here's the RSS satellite trend since the big El Nino of 1998:
    http://www.woodfortrees.org/pl... [woodfortrees.org]

    Here's the RSS satellite trend since the big El Nino of 1998:
    http://www.woodfortrees.org/pl... [woodfortrees.org]

    Here is a correlation between CO2 and various surface and satellite data-sets: http://www.woodfortree [woodfortrees.org]

  • " ... The new record was caused by the long-term warming of the planet due to human-caused emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide, combined with a extra bump in temperature due to the strongest El Niño event ever recorded in the Eastern Pacific. ..."

    This is, of course, the Kool-Aid of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC); here is another summary from the IPCC's webpage:

    " ... the human influence on the climate system is clear and is evident from the increasing greenhouse g

  • in the Northeast? They say all the snow meant for Alaska hit New England instead. It cost MA alone $300M.
  • The warmer the better.

    Bring it on.

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