Climate Change Is Altering Global Air Currents (independent.co.uk) 369
An anonymous reader quotes a report from The Independent: One of the scientists who demonstrated conclusively that global warming was an unnatural event with the famous "hockey stick" graph is now warning that giant jetstreams which circle the planet are being altered by climate change. Jetstreams are influenced by the difference in temperatures between the Arctic and the equator. But the Arctic has been warming much faster than tropical climates -- the island of Svalbard, for example was 6.5 degrees celsius warmer last year compared to the average between 1961 and 1990. The land has also been warming faster than the sea. Both of those factors were changing the flow of these major air currents to create "extreme meanders" which were helping to cause "extreme weather events", Professor Michael Mann said. In a paper in the journal Scientific Reports, Professor Mann and other researchers wrote that evidence of the effect of climate change on the jetstreams had "only recently emerged from the background noise of natural variability." They said that projections of the effect on the jetstreams in "state-of-the-art" climate models were "mirrored" in "multiple" actual temperature measurements. The jetstream normally flows reasonably consistently around the planet, but can develop loops extending north and south. The researchers, who studied temperature records going back to 1870 as well as satellite data, said these loops could grow "very large" or even "grind to a halt" rather than moving from west to east. The effect has been most pronounced during the past 40 years, they found.
Tell me about it (Score:2, Funny)
Those air currents are playing hell with my golf score!
Re: Tell me about it (Score:3, Funny)
Luckily the wall will block the rogue currents!
We love you Donald!!!!
I like the quotes (Score:2)
Around the "extreme meander" and "extreme weather events."
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1
Next question?
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Re:Extreme Weather Events... Like an Ice Age... (Score:4, Informative)
The time scale to get an ice age really rolling would be on the order of thousands of years. But don't worry, CO2 levels would have to drop well below 300 ppm before a new ice age could commence. However if the Gulf Stream shuts down it could cause northern Europe to cool down quite a bit.
pretty much old news (Score:2)
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I saw the headline and instantly blurted out, "GEEEEEEEE, YA THINK?!" and then my wife came in and asked if everything is OK.
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Clickbait.
This is the /. version of "One simple trick to herp your derp" that people who don't run adblock see around the internet.
And it worked. We clicked. Even though we all knew all of the comments in advance, including your version of the classic "how is this news for nerds?", we all clicked on the link.
There's an interesting statistic (Score:5, Informative)
I can't really explain it, but it's at least interesting to ponder. Take a look at Climate change opinion by country [wikipedia.org].
Awareness that there is something like this is pretty much as one would expect: People in countries with a free or mostly free press and open and affordable access to the internet are way more informed about it than people in countries where information is scarce, hard to come by or government controlled. Also, the more spare time people have to waste, the more informed they claim to be.
The map on whether it's caused by humans is interesting. Why is practically all of South America convinced that humans are the source of global warming? There is also an interesting difference between Western/Middle Europe and Eastern Europe/Russia, with the former being more convinced of human caused global warming than the latter. It's not quite the divide the Iron Curtain formed, rather it seems to be more a matter between former USSR countries being less convinced than the Rest of Europe, with some noteworthy exceptions in the BeNeLux states and England. And Japan being a real puzzle, being absolutely convinced of human-caused global warming and it being a threat.
Really interesting is now, though, when you compare that map (human caused yes/no) with the last map that deals with the question whether people think that global warming is a threat. It looks like whether people consider climate change a threat is more dependent on the country having a free press than whether they think it's human made. It's also interesting that in Western Europe more people think it's a threat than people think it's caused by humans.
All in all, pretty interesting.
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The map on whether it's caused by humans is interesting. Why is practically all of South America convinced that humans are the source of global warming?
Because they're not being asked to cut back their energy consumption. It's easier to convince people of a problem if you don't also tell them that they have to change their lifestyle.
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Oh. Ok, that makes sense.
Now explain Japan and West Europe.
Re:There's an interesting statistic (Score:4, Interesting)
You can explain these results quite simply. People in countries that have benefited greatly from causing climate change through the emission of CO2 are less willing to accept that their actions are the cause. People in countries where pollution is bad and the effects of climate change are more apparent are more likely to accept it.
Japan is an outlier because people there tend to accept expert opinion and broad scientific consensus, rather than assume they know better or that it's some giant conspiracy theory. If you look at the rest of the countries where people are skeptical, it's obviously Dunning-Kruger at work. Most of the people who think they are "experts" on climate change really just googled a load of conspiracy theory web sites and enjoyed the confirmation that their 20 MPG SUV isn't the problem.
This is why the name has changed... (Score:2)
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And you also ain't a rape victim anymore, you're an involuntary sperm recipient.
Not the best advocate (Score:2)
"One of the scientists who demonstrated conclusively that global warming was an unnatural event with the famous "hockey stick" graph..."
If by "demonstrated conclusively" you mean: ....then yeah, he's the guy.
- used sketchy, statistically dubious 'smoothing', omitted the Medieval warm period, and cherry picked data to 'prove' an already-supposed conclusion, and
- then when called to produce his data, "lost it"
Same question as always (Score:2)
Two types of climate change: man-made climate change and natural climate change. What % of the change in air currents is caused by each?
Re:Scientific Reports (Score:4, Informative)
There is tons of it.
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Some compelling evidence, yes, but I've seen nothing that's convincing.
Of course some probably are more easily convinced than others.
Ferret
Re:Scientific Reports (Score:4, Interesting)
If you don't want to be convinced, not even a shot in the face will convince you that firearms can be dangerous. So it goes with anything else.
Re:Scientific Reports (Score:5, Interesting)
No, there's not.
Some compelling evidence, yes, but I've seen nothing that's convincing.
Peer reviewed research? There is oodles of it, check out TFA for one of them.
Of course some probably are more easily convinced than others.
I can't argue with that, you conspiricy theory types are the most gullible people on the planet, all you need is a badly written website, a few poorly researched facts and people like you will believe anything.
Re:Scientific Reports (Score:4, Insightful)
If it means they don't have to stop driving around in their SUVs and not change their way of life, people are quite ready to believe anything you throw at them.
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If it means they don't have to stop driving around in their SUVs and not change their way of life, people are quite ready to believe anything you throw at them.
You know, that's a very valid point. It's so freaking simple to listen/read/see anything you want about impending doom as long as you don't have to do anything yourself to prevent yourself from being harmed. Psychological basics!
I'd love to see, just for kicks, what would happen if a governmental panel forced a law through that made SUVs and Pickup trucks illegal for anyone who doesn't have an investigated and licensed need for one. God, that would be hilarious to see how many tables would turn.
Re:Scientific Reports (Score:5, Insightful)
Of course some probably are more easily convinced than others.
While others are fatally slow to appreciate danger and take evasive action ... In this particular case, however, so well publicised and so overwhelming is the evidence that a failure to be convinced more likely reflects a studied ignorance than any natural lack of perspicuity.
Re:Scientific Reports (Score:4, Insightful)
Re:Scientific Reports (Score:5, Funny)
He has an MBA (Multiple Blog-reader Award) and a PHD (Plentiful Hogwash and Disinformation)
Re: Scientific Reports (Score:2)
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But CO2 is what plants crave!
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Careful there sport (Score:2)
Slashdot fails at unicode, you think it's going to pass your irony tags?
Re:Scientific Reports (Score:4, Insightful)
If climate change is real, why is there no peer-reviewed research that shows it?
Why would your ignorance of the evidence convince us that there is none? Quite the opposite : you are one of the leading denialists on slashdot, and when I read that I think "this guy hasn't even looked at the evidence" and convinces me, all the more, that your movement is just the corrupt leading the blind.
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It's all true. I've seen countless prominent Trump supporters on Slashdor give PopeRatzo full credit for Trump's victory... Clearly without his support, Trump would be just another billionaire presidential wannabe...
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Did you actually ever read a peer reviewed article?
And did you grasp its contents?
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Jesus, I would have thought that putting the name of the peer-reviewed journal in the subject line would have been enough of an indication that I was kidding.
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Jesus, I would have thought that putting the name of the peer-reviewed journal in the subject line would have been enough of an indication that I was kidding.
Welcome to Slashdot. You must be new here.
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From now on, I only trust peer-reviewed Slashdot comments.
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Added to that the all too common cognitive failure which causes people not to look too carefully at the sources of information which confirm their bias.
Re:Scientific Reports (Score:5, Funny)
Sounds legit.
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Re:What precentage caused by man? (Score:5, Insightful)
Your house is on fire. Do you:
A. Call the fire department?
B. Accuse the neighbor of telling you your house is on fire that "Fire is just somebody's religion!"
C. Convene a study to determine if the house really is on fire, and if so, if it was due to spontaneous combustion or if there's a arsonist about?
D. "Blame Liberals!"
E. Post to Facebook or instagram?
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Obviously D, E, B, followed by the calling the cops and reporting that a suspicious hippie was seen in the neighborhood last week and is probably responsible, followed by A. C is for librals.
More options (Score:4, Funny)
Your house is on fire. Do you:
A. Call the fire department?
B. Accuse the neighbor of telling you your house is on fire that "Fire is just somebody's religion!"
C. Convene a study to determine if the house really is on fire, and if so, if it was due to spontaneous combustion or if there's a arsonist about?
D. "Blame Liberals!"
E. Post to Facebook or instagram?
F. Call the police to report a drunk/delusional hippie running around the neighbourhood who thinks the houses are on fire?
MOD PARENT UP (Score:2)
on-point
Re:More options (Score:5, Insightful)
Question is, though, what if the police comes and finds out that the houses actually ARE on fire. Will you at least then agree to call the fire department? Or are you too upset that you were wrong that you'd rather see your house burn down than admit you were wrong?
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Your house is on fire. Do you:
A. Call the fire department?
B. Accuse the neighbor of telling you your house is on fire that "Fire is just somebody's religion!"
C. Convene a study to determine if the house really is on fire, and if so, if it was due to spontaneous combustion or if there's a arsonist about?
D. "Blame Liberals!"
E. Post to Facebook or instagram?
Or, you could do what Fullofshiticus, the new emperor of America, is doing and call it a Chinese hoax.
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F. Patiently sit in your house and yell at anyone "making a big fuss over an imaginary problem" then when you personally catch fire, panic and later claim it was impossible to have foreseen such a turn of events.
Re: What precentage caused by man? (Score:2)
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Your Neighbor told you your house is on fire because he saw the fireplace was lit through the window.Do you:
A. Call the fire department?
B. Accuse the neighbor of telling you your house is on fire that "Fire is just somebody's religion!"
C. Convene a study to determine if the house really is on fire, and if so, if it was due to spontaneous combustion or if there's a arsonist about?
D. "Blame Liberals!"
E. Post to Facebook or instagram?
There I fixed it for you.
Re: What precentage caused by man? (Score:3)
Eastern Standard time is a hoax that needs to die in a fire. Fuck people are dumb.
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took two reads, but lol
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Using that logic, then I should be covered in passenger pigeon shit while being gored by a buffalo (denying that mankind can and does change his environment.) I remember visiting Los Angeles in the late 1970's. I was struck by how polluted and gray the sunset was conspired to a sunset off the Seychelles or in the Arctic. Beijing was so polluted and the air so thick with exhaust that I was ill
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I think the peeps forgot Erhard.
Re: What precentage caused by man? (Score:2)
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Welcome to Bizarro world. But be happy, for what happens in Bizarro world stays in Bizarro world.
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I don't give a fuck about being a good person, what I want is to survive and preferably without unwashed masses storming the hill I live on to escape the rising sea levels.
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Exactly. And since I have no kids, I decided to hell with it, grab a bowl of popcorn and enjoy the catfight.
Quite frankly, I actually once cared about "humanity". But when you stop worrying and simply accept that you can't save the world, life gets a lot easier.
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Ok, then it's just getting warmer and warmer in your house, do you try to find out whether there's a fire burning in your basement or are you just happy that you can save on the heating bill?
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Remember most deniers are also fans of austerity: the economic equivalent of saving on your heating bill by burning your paycheck for warmth.
With that in mind, perhaps we should try a different metaphor:
You are developing third degree burns on your asshole. Do you
1) Deny the existence of assholes
2) Deny the existence of burns
3) Stop sitting on the fucking stove - or at least turn the plate down ?
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In other words, if tree rings don't accurately match modern thermometer readings, how can we expect to rely on them for historical temperature measurements?
Because they did match modern thermometer readings until they started to diverge in the 1960s and other tree ring series continued to match the thermometer readings.
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Dr. Mann worked at the University of Virginia in the United States, It was Dr Jones at the CRU, Climatic Research Unit, in the University of East Anglia in England. Dr. Mann has a degree in mathematics and presumably took one or more courses in statistics. Dr. Jones supposedly can't even use an excell spreadsheet.
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The conclusion remains the same when more appropriate statistical methods are used.
Professor Hand said that the CRU scientists did not use "the best statistical tools for their studies" but that this had made not significant difference to their conclusions.
The nice thing about science is that other people can duplicate the research if necessary. In this case, it was necessary to lay those methodological concerns to rest.
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Sheesh! "Hide the decline" had nothing to do with statistics. It had to do with the fact that some tree ring series started showing declines in temperatures that weren't matched in observations by actual thermometers so they didn't use the data from them after they started showing the discrepancies.
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...some tree ring series started showing declines in temperatures that weren't matched in observations by actual thermometers...
Slow down there, cowboy!
Tree ring data is used to estimate temperature changes occurring during the past before there were thermometers (or humans for much of Earth's past history for which tree-ring data is used, for that matter).
Can't be comparisons between two data sets when one set does not exist!
Now that is just ignorant, we still have trees, we have thermometer, Mann could easily plotted the tree proxy data, and the thermometer data as two coexisting dataset and an observer could visual judge thee correlation between the two plots. Instead he spliced the two and presented them as if they were one; many people interpret this as an act of wilful deception.
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What do you make of the consistent failure of the denialist community to come up with any explanation for the recent warming trend that wasn't trivially debunked ? What about the dismal failure of every theory that they have wanted us to believe: e.g. ther is no warming, it's warming due to the sun, it's gravitational lensing, it's warming but there's some problem with some model blah blah so somehow the theory is invalid etc. etc. and for every dismal failure, they've failed to admit they w
Re:What precentage caused by man? (Score:5, Insightful)
You and I see this: here is a theory with a lot of evidence. The deniers make a claim, it gets debunked so they make another claim and the cycle repeats endlessly as one bullshit claim after the other gets debunked.
But the people who believe the deniers don't see that. They see "For everything the scientist say the deniers make a counter-argument that sounds convincing to me".
At least part of the reason they see it so differently is that it's a helluva lot easier to sound convincing when you don't try to be accurate. Explaining complex science so laymen can understand it is hard - to do it convincingly as well is very hard. Reality doesn't care about your individual biases. It's the same reason people are scared of investing in long-term proven ways to grow your money - but will give their life savings to a conman after one meeting.
Re:What precentage caused by man? (Score:4, Insightful)
At least part of the reason they see it so differently is that it's a helluva lot easier to sound convincing when you don't try to be accurate.
That is simply not the reason. It's a helluva lot easier to be convinced when someone tells you what you want to hear. THAT is the reason. These people are running almost entirely on cognitive dissonance, day in and day out. They beg the question all day, every day. Everyone is driving an SUV, so I have to drive an SUV to be safe! But wait, does driving an SUV actually make you safer? (No.) I'm just one little person whose output is minuscule so I can't possibly be harming the climate! But wait, is their output actually minuscule? (Not when you add up all their economic activity.) etc etc.
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I don't think what you said and what I said are different. You can't tell people what they want to hear if you are trying to be accurate. Reality very rarely conforms to our desires.
Re:What precentage caused by man? (Score:4, Informative)
I'll get modded down for this, but reason is not the way to convince people like that to act. Money is.
That's why taxes on pollution and CO2 emissions are so effective. Of course, deniers will claim it's a conspiracy by LED lightbulb manufacturers and the mighty wind power lobby that seems to have completely eclipsed the underfunded, ineffective oil lobby.
Re:What precentage caused by man? (Score:5, Insightful)
I've been modded down already
Well it wasn't one of your more accurate contributions was it? Oooops.
Beside the confusion between Penn State and the University of East Anglia, to say Dr Mann is "really really bad at statistics" is perhaps to overstate the actual criticism leveled at his now infamous 1998 paper. In any case subsequent reconstructions, --and the last word, I presume, goes to Marcott et al. 2013 [sciencemag.org] --more or less confirm the original conclusions of Mann et al.. I'm would assume you (and I genuinely respect your intelligence and erudition phantom) are already aware of that.
it's also worth mentioning that this paper is using computer models
And, invaluable though they may be, we would certainly exercise caution when considering the findings of simulations. In any case, we would naturally be sceptical of any only recently published paper. It's the weight of the extant literature of course, including the examination and perhaps replication by the entire profession of newly published work, that forms the best available science.
I realise that the plural of anecdote is not data, and I realise that warming here in Australia is occurring at a faster rate than globally, but this summer just gone has been truly alarming. Driving my family through 46C heat on the NSW South Coast in Feb was the first time I was literally scared of the temperature (not just uncomfortable but frightened that the vehicle and air-con might give out).
How often do you reinvent the wheel? (Score:5, Informative)
why isn't there more recent material published showing the proven change?
For the same reason physics journals are not filled with recent papers investigating whether falling objects move towards or away from Earth. The human contribution (established not only by the C12/C13 ratios but also by estimates of rates of fossil fuel consumption) is no longer a matter of serious dispute. The argument has moved on to issues of climate sensitivity; just what the actual effect will be on tropical storm formation &c. If you want to see the original work establishing the human fingerprint you would need to look at papers from last century, when this was still a live issue. You are better off going to the most recent IPCC summation of the science (which will link you through to original papers), which in this case would be Chapter 8 [www.ipcc.ch] and Chapter 10 [www.ipcc.ch] of the 2015 WG1 report of AR5 [www.ipcc.ch].
In the meantime that link provided gives a very nice concise summary of one of the lines of evidence by which the human fingerprint was established.
I would think that ...
... you would have thanked OP for that informative link. Or were you not the AC who wanted to know how we know about the anthropogenic contribution to observed warming?
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Blocking sunlight is one way of slowing down the warming but reducing the sunlight will also reduce the productivity of photosynthesis which will reduce crop yields among other things. Also it doesn't do a thing to stop ocean acidification.
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Blocking sunlight is one way of slowing down the warming but reducing the sunlight will also reduce the productivity of photosynthesis which will reduce crop yields among other things.
It doesn't matter if you do it at times when plants are getting too much sunlight, which already happens. You can tell they are getting too much sunlight because either a) it is over 100 degrees when virtually all plants close down their stomata and just try not to lose all their water and die or b) the plants are literally getting sunburned, which is also a thing which happens.
Also it doesn't do a thing to stop ocean acidification.
That's true. Also, we have to breathe whatever comes down, and there's basically nothing whatsoever which is actually safe to spray
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The ocean is not acidic, it is moving toward being minutely less corrosive.
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In order to keep it from falling to earth it has to be orbiting. That means it has to orbit SOMETHING. Close to earth a relatively small sail could work (the moon can eclipse the entire sun and it's much smaller than earth) - but it only does that now and then - and eclipses don't happen over the whole planet.
So what are the options ? Well firstly - what should it orbit ? Orbitting the earth is easiest - but you have the moon problem - it doesn't stay put. if you make it fairly big - you could have it block
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Some of your objections are legitimate, but some of them are not. Let's talk about them. First, let's just save anyone who doesn't actually care the trouble by agreeing that since it doesn't deal with the CO2, and CO2 causes more problems than warming, it's a non-starter.
In order to keep it from falling to earth it has to be orbiting. That means it has to orbit SOMETHING.
You put it at L1. This takes care of your entire first paragraph. You will still need some PV solar and some ion engines for stationkeeping but you do not need to combat the solar wind, it is its own solution.
If your sail is not absolutely reflective it's going to get hot (and nothing is absolutely 100% reflective at every frequency - even a mirror gets hot if you leave it in the sun) so you need some way to cool it or that heat will build up and eventually it will burn up.
This is a real problem. I don't
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The answer is: about 1/3 of the noted increase in temperature is directly due to humans, about 1/3 is the result of natural variation, and 1/3 is unaccounted for.
Where did you get those numbers? It sounds like something you just pulled out of a stinky place.
Since the 1950s all known natural causes of temperature change have been slightly declining. That means it is likely that 100% or more of the temperature increase is due to human causes since the 1950s.
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The answer is: about 1/3 of the noted increase in temperature is directly due to humans, about 1/3 is the result of natural variation, and 1/3 is unaccounted for.
Let's just say you're right. I mean, you aren't, but let's say that you are for the sake of this conversation. Even if that were true, if that 1/3 that is due to human activity is enough to take the biosphere past a tipping point, then the only relevant part is the part that we can do something about, and we must reduce emissions. Thanks for making our point for us.
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It's all science like!
Re: More fabricated garbage (Score:5, Funny)
Re:More fabricated garbage (Score:5, Insightful)
Yeah, why work for oil corporations and say everything's great when you can get a fraction of the money predicting doom.
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If your work for an oil company produces too many dry wells, you're fired and/or the company fails. Competence is valued.
If your work in climate prediction is accurate or wildly wrong, nobody knows in your lifetime, but if panicked pronouncements bring in lots of funding you get a promotion. Competence is irrelevant.
Re:More fabricated garbage (Score:4, Insightful)
Competence is also irrelevant if you have a prestigious name and say what someone with deep pockets wants to hear.
Re:More fabricated garbage (Score:5, Insightful)
If your work in climate prediction is accurate or wildly wrong, nobody knows in your lifetime
I see you've never looked into climate science, research or peer reviews before.
Physical Basis (Score:3)
correlation is not causation
It's a little more complicated than that. The underlying mechanism involves the relationship between changing zonal mean temperatures and the strength and position of maxima in the mid-latitude westerly jet. The main condition for resonance is the formation of a zonally-directed waveguide for a particular zonal wavenumber k, which depends only on the wavenumber and the shape of the zonal-mean zonal wind (U) profile. Such a waveguide is present when a mid-latitude region of positive squared meridional waven
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Who would listen to that nutcase? Read Mark Steyn's book to see that bit of scientific nonsense totally eviscerated
Because political commentators are the best source of reliable scientific information.
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I guess Michael Mann is just lucky then because all of the similar studies done since his original hockey stick graph by different researchers on different proxy data have shown the same thing as his original graph.
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Oh it can be done - and if Trump was actually smart he would do it in a way that the democrats, liberals and environments would all be cheering him on right until it's too late.
1) Ban fracking. ...
2) Ban oil imports and domestic oil drilling
3) Build coal-to-oil-to-fuel conversion plants.
4) Lots of coal miners employed
5)
6) Profit... no wait the other thing, what's it called again ? Oh right, LOSSES. Massive losses.
You need to ban fracking because that's where the competition for coal in power generation is
Re: Climate change (Score:4, Insightful)
Re:Climate change (Score:4, Insightful)
Yes. It is. And a few million years ago it was WAY warmer than it is today.
A few million years ago, though, humans didn't want to survive on this marble.
Re: Ha! Nonsense! (Score:2)
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We are currently in a period of temporary warming due to the high amount of mid-20th century solar activity. Our conditions in the current period are identical to the temporary warming known as the Medieval Warming [dailycaller.com] Now just as then, global temperatures are controlled by the sun and solar activity.
Our current conditions are not identical to the MWP. The current rate of warming is much faster than during the MWP and it's likely that globally temperatures are warmer now than they were back then.
We are now entering a era of minimal solar activity, identical to the Maunder Minimum [breitbart.com] which brought about the horrible period of death, disease, and famine known as the Little Ice Age [britannica.com]. If history and science has anything to say in the matter, we should be consuming more carbon fuels, and engaging in an expansion of carbon emissions in order to stave off another ice age, another epoch frozen crops, famine, disease, and plague.
There has been some recent research that indicates the main cause of the Little Ice Age was a series of large volcanic eruptions in the 1200s. The Maunder Minimum may have exacerbated the LIA some but probably wasn't a primary cause.
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We are currently in a period of temporary warming due to the high amount of mid-20th century solar activity
That is wrong. We have no increase of solar activity. In fact it decreasing since over a decade.
Our conditions in the current period are identical to the temporary warming known as the Medieval Warming
This is wrong, too.
For starters: we have no clue at all what caused the Medieval Warming.
On top of that: we had three such periods, which do you refer to?
We are now entering a era of minimal solar activi
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Fingers in the ears, singing "la la la, I can't hear you" didn't work when you were little and had to go to bed, why do you think it works with grownup problems?
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What can't it do? If I buy now will you throw in it's effect on the radius of gopher holes, all for the low, low price of a carbon tax?
High global CO2 no doubt caused your inexplicable use of an apostrophe in the wrong place. It's affecting your grammar.
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So... in case it's real, the ones to blame are the ones that tried to warn you that it's real?