Analysts Expect Tesla To Miss Its First 2018 Model 3 Production Target (usnews.com) 120
schwit1 shares a report from U.S. News & World Report: In October, Tesla reported that it produced 220 Model 3 vehicles in the third quarter. CEO Elon Musk had previously said the company would produce more than 1,600 Model 3s by September. Loup Ventures analyst Gene Munster isn't the only analyst to doubt Tesla's fourth-quarter Model 3 production. KeyBanc analyst Brad Erickson reduced his fourth-quarter Model 3 production target by two-thirds, cutting it from 15,000 to only 5,000. According to Munster, Tesla investors may need to wait several more quarters for the Model 3 story to play out. "We predict a breakout year for the Model 3 in 2019 which means, until then, other elements like solid Model S and X production numbers, increasing energy deployments like the South Australia installation, and future vehicles (Roadster, Semi, Model Y, and pickup truck) will stoke investor optimism," he says.
schwit1 adds: "Elon Musk promised Tesla would produce 500,000 Model 3 sedans in 2018 and has accepted refundable $1,000 deposits on nearly that many. At current production rates, it will be years before pre-orders are filled. The Model 3's good will and good reviews won't matter much if Tesla can't ramp up production, which even bulls like Munster believes is running at least a year late."
Of Course (Score:5, Interesting)
The trouble is, the Model 3 is a mass market car that will need to work and need to be spot on in every respect. Those who would be looking to buy a Model 3 in the heavily competitive market it operates in are not Tesla fanboys who will cut them slack. It's a completely different ballgame.
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The trouble is, the Model 3 is a mass market car that will need to work and need to be spot on in every respect. Those who would be looking to buy a Model 3 in the heavily competitive market it operates in are not Tesla fanboys who will cut them slack. It's a completely different ballgame.
I think that the market the Model 3 is in isn't really that competitive. Very few people are looking at a Model 3 or a Camry. They are either Tesla fanboys, who don't care, or people who want an EV with a 200+ mile range. In that market, their main competition is the Bolt, with most everything else compromised in some way. As long as the demand for EVs keeps growing they should be able to move the Model 3 as fast as they can build them.
Re: Of Course (Score:1)
The problem, however, is that there will be lots of competition by the time the Model 3 arrives in numbers, even if that ever actually happens.
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Really? Competition from who? I haven't heard of any competition coming anytime soon, and I follow these things very closely. I've heard of several vehicles that are expected to have a similar range to the model 3, however none of them are expected to have any form of charging network, which is somewhat important. Additionally I've only heard of one vehicle that might have a roughly similar driver assistance suite and that's a top of the line Cadillac, and even that's expected to be even more limited than T
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Really? Competition from who? I haven't heard of any competition coming anytime soon, and I follow these things very closely. I've heard of several vehicles that are expected to have a similar range to the model 3, however none of them are expected to have any form of charging network, which is somewhat important. Additionally I've only heard of one vehicle that might have a roughly similar driver assistance suite and that's a top of the line Cadillac, and even that's expected to be even more limited than Tesla's solution (which already can't match what Tesla themselves released in 2015)
It's a bit like taking a Rolls Royce and saying there's competition because Lexus put out a luxury sedan, or telling Lamborghini that the newest Toyota sports car is going to eat their lunch. Until you grasp what makes a specific vehicle successful you can't make a competing product, and trust me, the legacy car makes don't grasp anything about why Tesla has been successful.
Now don't take this as the rantings of a Tesla Fanboy, I am actually the complete opposite I absolutely abhor Tesla, and that's as someone who drives one every day. I think therapy scummiest company that has ever existed on this planet but as they don't have any competition, and there doesn't seem to be any coming anytime soon, I'm unlikely to sell my car just yet.
The rantings of a Tesla Fanboy.
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Ok, list me a single competitor that's "coming" that has the following minimum feature set:
- Fast-Charging network already existing that spans the entire continent and can recharge the car fully in the time that you'd stop for lunch at a fast food joint.
- Driver assistance features that are at least somewhat close to what Tesla has
Just with those 2 features (which are probably the 2 most important ones) I'm not aware of any, and we're ignoring all the other things that Tesla tends to have on their competito
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Add to the list "has Motor Trend drooling about how much better it handles than a BMW 3-series". And the ability to get AWD + air suspension. And I can't wait to see the specs on that performance package ;) The SR is already as fast as a 330i and the LR as fast as a 340i (but $5k cheaper than each, before incentives and operating cost savings) - and adding power on EVs is a lot cheaper than with gasoline.
I'd also stress the "efficient without being a weirdmobile" aspect. Tesla has really honed in on the o
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> Until you grasp what makes a specific vehicle successful you
> can't make a competing product, and trust me, the legacy car
> makes don't grasp anything about why Tesla has been successful.
Successful... BWAAAHAAAHAAA
* 2014 loss $294 million
* 2015 loss $889 million
* 2016 loss $675 million
* 2017 loss $1.790 *BILLION* (estimated)
Data from http://www.4-traders.com/TESLA... [4-traders.com]
The last time GM and Chrysler were that "successful", they went bankrupt! Tesla forecasts a profit in 2019. But that assumes
1) They
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This is exactly why Tesla even still exists. They lie through their teeth in every single marketing presentation, they actively steal features from customers after purchase, they haven't met a timeline or target in their entire existence, in short, they're the scummiest company I've ever dealt with.
So why did I deal with them? Two reasons, fist of all I didn't realize they could really be as bad as they are until after I'd bought the car, but more importantly because despite all of that, and despite about t
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Even if I accept your statement that all other cars are "a decade behind" Tesla [which I disagree with], it's really difficult to argue that an EV you can buy and drive home right now is not competitive with a Tesla Model 3 that you have pay $1,000 to reserve the opportunity to buy the entire car in 1-2 years (or longer). You don't seem like a total Tesla fanboy, but I think you're still making a massive excuse for them. FWIW, I have no ill will towards Tesla, I think they are doing some amazing things, I s
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it's really difficult to argue that an EV you can buy and drive home right now is not competitive with a Tesla Model 3
That depends. Does the EV you can drive home right now do what you need it to do? The answer for the vast majority of people is obviously "no" otherwise there'd be more Bolt purchases, and fewer 3 reservation holders.
The Bolt is a nice city car. The 3 is an everything car. Without a fastcharging network the Bolt won't work for a huge percentage of the population, this is obvious when you look at the sales figures.
Just because you can't get the vehicle you want, doesn't make the other cars somehow competitiv
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delivered, yes. But there are a lot of reservations for the 3 that for some reason aren't changing in to sales for the Bolt. That proves that the 3 is not competing with the Bolt, if it was, most of those reservations would have bought a Bolt by now, but instead Bolts sit on dealer lots while the wait for a 3 just keeps growing.
As soon as some company decides to compete with Tesla, we may see some interesting things happen, but for now there isn't a single competitor on the market.
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source?
Show me a reputable source that indicates that there are fewer remaining reservations for the Model 3 than there are sales of the Bolt.
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Welcome to the Internet, where people can make up whatever nonsense they want.
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it's really difficult to argue that an EV you can buy and drive home right now is not competitive with a Tesla Model 3
That depends. Does the EV you can drive home right now do what you need it to do?
Any car, EV or ICE, sitting in my driveway is filling more of my vehicle needs than a $1,000 promise note from Tesla.
Without a fastcharging network the Bolt won't work for a huge percentage of the population
As someone who has owned a Nissan Leaf for two years I can confidently say that for most people you are overstating the importance of Tesla's charging station networks. I've never taken my Leaf to charging station. All of my charging has been in my garage on a standard 120V trickle charge overnight. In a pinch I could get a charge at any Nissan dealership, or a Tesla station, but I've never n
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Any car, EV or ICE, sitting in my driveway is filling more of my vehicle needs than a $1,000 promise note from Tesla.
So if there was a waiting list for your preferred car, a bicycle would suddenly become even better than the vehicle you're waiting on? That's delusional.
Sure you can't get a Tesla because of the wait, but the fact that so many people are waiting instead of buying the already available Bolt just goes to prove that the Bolt isn't competing with the Tesla. If it were there would be ZERO reservations for the Tesla, and about half a million Bolts on the road right now. But that's not the case, Bolts seem to be s
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It amazes me how much the other manufacturers completely missed the boat on fast charging networks. It seems that they simply stereotyped EVs as niche products for niche dirtie hippie buyers, and that anyone who wanted a "real car" that could go on road trips without excessive hassle would just buy an ICE.
Tesla's bet that EV buyers would, in fact, strongly want to road trip, and a "charge while you take a meal break" rate of charge would allow for that (~120kW max rather than ~50kW max for CHAdeMO and most
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Well if I want to go somewhere now, it's the bike or walk. You can't drive vapourware.
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Any car, EV or ICE, sitting in my driveway is filling more of my vehicle needs than a $1,000 promise note from Tesla.
So if there was a waiting list for your preferred car, a bicycle would suddenly become even better than the vehicle you're waiting on? That's delusional.
Or there are a bunch of delusional Tesla fans with more disposable income to spend on a car.... just maybe?
I drive a Model S.
Then you are clearly NOT an average example of the US population, and you are delusional if you think your personal car finances are reflective of middle america. The Model S is a fantastic car IF one is in the luxury $80K+ car market. I would love to own one, but I can't afford it and neither can most of America. Even the Model 3 price is questionable for middle class Americans if one adds anything be
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Any car, EV or ICE, sitting in my driveway is filling more of my vehicle needs than a $1,000 promise note from Tesla.
That may be true, but rarely is it a choice between no car and waiting. The choice here is generally between keeping your old car, getting a new car which doesn't fully fulfill your needs / desires, or waiting for a car that does.
In that context, waiting is probably the better option nearly every time.
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it's really difficult to argue that an EV you can buy and drive home right now is not competitive with a Tesla Model 3 that you have pay $1,000 to reserve the opportunity to buy the entire car in 1-2 years (or longer).
That is true, but here's the thing: I bought a new car late last year. I so much wanted an electric car. So much that I already had a company over to check for installing solar panels on the garage and give me a quote.
I checked the entire market, and in the end bought a BMW again, combustion engine. Yes, there are EVs which I can buy and drive home in 3 months ("right now" is only if you take the exact car that is standing, if you so much as want another color, 2-3 months is the typical wait). But none of t
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BMW makes an EV (i3), but it's way overpriced for what you get. Model 3 gives you a far, far better buy in every regard. The only thing the i3 wins on is that you can get it today.
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I have driven the i3 and it is the shame of the BMW brand.
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I don't trust Tesla's automation for one second. Of course they've also never sold a car with autonomous features, only driver assistance, and I trust their driver assistance every time I get in the car. The difference is that I am always in control of the system. I am driving. Tesla isn't. The absolute worst thing the automation is capable of doing if it screws up is to move the car a foot or so to the side before I catch it and override. And if there wasn't several feet beside the car to start with, I nev
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One thing that I think Autopilot gets right versus most of its emerging competitors is the situation display. It tells you what it's thinking, how it sees the world - e.g., "I see you here in your lane, I sense something in your blind spot over here, I see two cars ahead of you, one to the front right..." etc. It may seem like such a little thing at first, but it's absolutely critical to owners being comfortable with any degree of automation (even glorified TACC+lanekeeping, aka Autopilot as it currently s
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I think that the market the Model 3 is in isn't really that competitive. Very few people are looking at a Model 3 or a Camry.
This is an average sized, family car that most people in the world are driving to work. It's the Volkswagen Golf segment, and I mention the Golf because this is a worldwide market Tesla is in. This is not just a US car they are making. To describe that as not really competitive is one of the most laughable things I've heard frankly.
They are either Tesla fanboys, who don't care, or people who want an EV with a 200+ mile range.
No, they are not Tesla fanboys and they are not going to be appeased by a downloadable Easter egg. Far from it, as I said in my original comment. Those who buy these cars in this
Re:Of Course (Score:5, Insightful)
Range even when using air con and heating, charging stations, the time it takes to charge versus filling up (whatever did happen to those quick replace batteries?), build quality, everything has to be spot on perfect.
And here's one of the reasons Tesla is in a segment with zero competition, they're the only automaker that has actually figured that part out. And until another company comes along with an actual long-distance charging network of fast-chargers we're not going to see any actual competition to Tesla.
As for what happened to quick replace batteries, the Tesla model S has them, and they ran a trial, nobody cared. Quick replace batteries have never been a good idea, they simply don't provide any benefit at all over a reasonable fast-charge Network, and add an awful lot of complications and expense. In fact the only reason Tesla did them at all was because California gave extra CARB credits for them at the time. Not because they were a good idea.
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As for what happened to quick replace batteries, the Tesla model S has them, and they ran a trial, nobody cared.
There is still no evidence that a single customer car was ever battery-swapped. The batteries of the Model S at the time were installed partly with adhesives.
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There were no adhesives, it was simply nut and bolt. the real problem was that the battery shield had to come off (it was added to the car after the fast charge system was developed) which turned it in to a more manual process which took about 2-3 times as long as originally promised (of course it was still about the same speed as a gas fill-up)
A few customer cars were battery swapped, but very few. The reason? not because it was slow or hard to do, but because the swap station was across the street from a
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And here's one of the reasons Tesla is in a segment with zero competition
Tesla still competes with ICE cars, so you cannot say it has zero competition. There are a dozen car manufacturers competing with the Tesla S/3/X right now.
I don't think so, model 3 buyers very much fans (Score:2)
No, they are not Tesla fanboys and they are not going to be appeased by a downloadable Easter egg.
A friend or two that has the Model 3 is very much a Tesla fan. And so it will be for some time to come - or did you forget the pre-order lines just to lay down $1k for a car that would not be delivered for a year or two? None of the buyers for a long time is going to be anything but a die-hard Tesla fan. When they clear out pre-orders two or three years hence, then you can talk about the remaining buyers act
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A friend or two that has the Model 3 is very much a Tesla fan. And so it will be for some time to come - or did you forget the pre-order lines just to lay down $1k for a car that would not be delivered for a year or two? None of the buyers for a long time is going to be anything but a die-hard Tesla fan.
The type of people who can afford a $50-60k car (which most early Tesla 3's will be) don't care too much about a $1000 refundable down payment. If your rainy day fund (which is generally in a no interest or very low interest bearing account) cannot spare $1000 which could take a few months to retrieve then you shouldn't be buying a Tesla 3.
I am one of those who waited in line to pre-order on day one, and the down payment was a meaningless amount. Not because I am wealthy, but just because I already keep abo
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The fact alone that they're now up to over 1000 Model 3s per week is in and of itself ~$8m per day in extra revenue. Even if the production rate inexplicably ceases to rise (not going to happen) that'd be ~$1B by May that wasn't there when the "Seeking Alpha" crowd was making their "bankrupt in May at current burn rates" claims. More realistically, around $2B. One should also note that Tesla also had a disguised capital raise in the form of Roadster and Semi deposits (mainly Roadster).
Furthermore, one of t
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3000 Model 3s built so far [electrek.co]. Discounting the 260 built in Q3, that would be ~2750 in Q4. So that's about 210 units per week - not 1000. Assuming that extra revenue, they will last until mid-June, rather than mid May. Given that TSLA is losing about $16MM per week, they would need to go way beyond your estimates to be profitable. If you're not profitable, you are losing money - and you end up going bankrupt.
As far as Roadster and Semi deposits go, those are liabilities on the books, and need to be accou
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Hmm, I smell corporate shoppers, they are attacking Tesla to drive down the price, desperate for a cheap pick up, very, very unlikely to get it. Look for a few existing automotive corporations to get into a bidding war. I doubt that Tesla will make it to 2020, bought by one the existing manufacturers slow to catch on or even a major tech company looking for a major expansion. Apple Tesla, hmm, similar market, similar price premium, Apple has lots of money it needs to covert into capital growth and tax mitig
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I think that the market the Model 3 is in isn't really that competitive. Very few people are looking at a Model 3 or a Camry.
No, they are looking at Model 3 or Lexus / BMW / Mercedes / Cadillac / etc. The Model 3 is joining a very large and competitive market. It will still compete with ICE cars, not just other electrics. I for one ended up buying a three year old BMW for $30k when I found the Model 3 I pre-ordered would likely cost closer to $60k (at least the model I wanted). The Model 3 was still very competitive, but not enough for me to weather the depreciation of a new car.
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You're missing the magic.. By asking for preorders and setting a high bar:
"1,000 USD gets you a place in line for a car sometime in the short term"
they're getting rid of early and late majority markets and of course laggards, and focusing on visionaries and innovators(*) who WILL cut them a bit of slack.. They will be the first ones to have Tesla 3's.. That's what they're after.. That's why the formed a line outside of the dealerships..
(can you imagine someone who trusts his Ca
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Numbers like 220 actual versus 1600 predicted on a new automobile production line implies they having to rework a lot of defects by hand. Some rework is expected, but this implies that hugely capital-intensive line is running at a fraction of its capacity. That's also expected at first, in fact that why most manufacturers start with soft-tooling until they work the bugs out, then buy the most expensive hard-tools. News reports say Tesla went with hard tooling up-front, and that makes this a hellish expensiv
Underpromise, overdeliver (Score:2)
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Elon must have missed that lecture in Marketing 101
And you must have missed his last major presentation.
You know, the one where he pulled the quickest production car in the world out of the ass-end of an EV semi-truck.
What an underachiever...
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Elon must have missed that lecture in Marketing 101
And you must have missed his last major presentation. You know, the one where he pulled the quickest production car in the world out of the ass-end of an EV semi-truck.
I must have missed it. How many of those have been produced? Back in the 1960's with GT40's and Cobra's you had to have built (or had frames) for at least 100 cars to qualify as "production" for racing purposes. How many have been delivered to actual paying customers?
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You know, the one where he pulled the quickest production car in the world out of the ass-end of an EV semi-truck.
according to the final figures tesla delivered 1770 model 3's in 2017, 1550 of which where in Q4 they're currently at a production rate of 1000 cars per week
The new roadster is not the Model 3, nor is the Model 3 the quickest production car ever built. The OP was referring to the new Roadster that isn't due to be released until 2020. As far as I know there is only one prototype which likely doesn't live up to the specs that were given . So no, one prototype car does not qualify as a production car.
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Difference is they produce real product (Score:4, Insightful)
Tesla has survived until this day by missing just about every target they ever set and making pie-in-the-sky announcements to divert attention every time that happens.
The thing about Tesla is, they have a track record of delivering.
Yes they deliver really late. But that does not matter to the people investing in them and buying from them, because they have already baked in the understanding of these delays. When someone was waiting in line for a model 3, they knew it may well be years before they get the car. But they do not care, as long as it is eventually be delivered - and since Tesla is indeed producing model 3's, it eventually will be. That is enough.
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In the new world it's over promise, and rake in capital from investors. Delivery at all is an afterthought, and not really required if you can talk a good game.
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Until a few days ago the only way to turn the wipers on was to go through the touch screen.
Tesla has been selling a full self driving option for over a year. Here's Musk's estimate of when the feature will be delivered to people who already paid and who are on 2-5 year leases:
2015: in 2 years
2016: in 2 years
2017: in 3 years
They make great cars, but really over-promise.
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You are WAY too charitable towards Tesla here..
Tesla has been selling a full self driving option for over a year. Here's Musk's estimate of when the feature will be delivered to people who already paid and who are on 2-5 year leases:
2015: in 2 years
2016: in 2 years
2017: in 3 years
Why start in 2015? the 2014 and 2015 models were promised to have all sorts of driver assist features that not only do they not have, they will obviously never have, and Tesla refuses to even admit they promised despite images of their website and video recordings of the media event where they announced them. Full self driving on the 3 isn't "2-3 years away" even accounting for "Tesla time", it's NEVER on these cars. There is absolutely ZERO chance that these c
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I agree, I think the current hardware will never do FSD. They promised free upgrades to people who already bought FSD, which could get expensive.
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They promised all sorts of things, most of them were lies, the free upgrades are too.
What will most likely happen is that they will eventually re-define "full self driving" to be no more than they originally promised the basic auto-pilot tech could do back in 2014. "hands free on-ramp to off-ramp driving with an attentive driver behind the wheel"... see, that's "full self driving"... right?
The worst part though is that they'll likely get a pass on it just like they have on every other lie so far.
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Elon must have missed that lecture in Marketing 101
I think Elon also missed the entire series of lectures on logistics as well. I know of two car dealers in my neck of the woods who placed fairly large orders with Tesla for (a combined total) about a hundred Teslas but Tesla was completely unable to keep their delivery schedule. After pouring a sizeable amount to money into infrastructure, marketing and sales to sign up customers for those cars they went bankrupt when the customers lost their patience cancelled their orders due to the excessive delivery del
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"I know of two car dealers in my neck of the woods who placed fairly large orders with Tesla for (a combined total) about a hundred Teslas but Tesla was completely unable to keep their delivery schedule"
Say what? Tesla is a build-to-order, direct-to-customer automaker. They ARE the car dealer.
Where exactly is your "neck of the woods"?
where's Rei? (Score:2, Funny)
Re: where's Rei? (Score:1)
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The tesla has arrived, and it is the best car ever.
It's also nothing even close to what Tesla promised, but hey, that's not important when you don't have any competition.
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Sure, Of course they also said the S would be about half the price it is, and that the 3 would be on the market by 2015. Other than that, sure the "Master Plan" was bang on... Of course the master plan isn't the only thing they've said about the car, but why let that stop us, we don't need to pay attention to anything they've actually said about the vehicle when we can just gloss over anything that doesn't match reality...
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It's bedtime in Iceland right now. You'll probably have to wait a few hours for the inevitable book-length puff piece.
In other news: water is wet. (Score:3)
Tesla hasn't met a timeline, target, or marketing promise in their entire career, why start now?
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Tesla hasn't met a timeline, target, or marketing promise in their entire career, why start now?
Why not? They're trying to move into the mass market. Much different expectations.
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So far it doesn't matter how much they lie, how much they steal, or how much they screw up, they've gotten a complete pass. They have zero competition, and can't build cars as fast as they can sell them. What incentive do they have to change their ways when everything they do turns out just fine for them?
Fire more employees (Score:1)
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Isn't how it works, you fire employees and expect more production.
That's what Made America Great
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Why bring self-driving into this? the only people stupid enough to think that the Tesla is in any way a self-driving car is Tesla themselves. Okay I guess they did manage to con a few people into paying the extra few thousand dollars for "full self-driving", but you have to be a special kind of stupid to think that the hardware that's on those vehicles right now has any hope of ever fulfilling that promise. Not that there's anything new here though, Tesla is very familiar with promising things that they can
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"Just look at all the things they promised in 2014 around their initial autopilot suite, in fact there isn't even a single thing listed from that original presentation that the current cars can do"
Really? See link below for the *October* 2014 event (so the year was almost over) and tell us what was promised & is missing. I gather there's going to be quite a few items on that list.
https://youtu.be/FZ6lZJWL_Xk?t... [youtu.be]
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Sure, every single promise that came out of Elon's mouth in regard to driver assistance is missing:
- Can automatically pull out of your garage and meet you at the curb on private property. Not even close, they haven't released any feature remotely resembling this
- Can be summoned to your location wherever you are on private property. Nope, doesn't do this either
- Ultrasonics work at any speed. Nope, they top out well below the top speed of the car
- Monitors stop signs and traffic lights. Nope, ignores them
Who cares what a stock analyst thinks (Score:2)
A stock analyst (i.e. Munster, who is quoted in the summary) saying some Tesla action will "stoke investor optimism" means nothing... there are no concrete facts here, it's just feelings. There is no rationality to the Tesla's stock (TSLA) stock price being valued many times more than the company assets, and many times higher than the stock prices of established competing car companies, which have comparable cars to the Model 3 on the market right now (e.g. Nissan, Volkswagon, Chevy, etc.) while Tesla still
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Stock analysts being about on par with reading from tea leaves has been scientifically proven several times, including the famous studies with the main authors 9 year old daughter and a randomly thrown dart as the control groups.
That said, no, nobody has a Model 3 competitor on the market right now. I was shopping for a new car as recently as last autumn, and I checked all the electric models available over here. While some of them are surprisingly nice (Hyundai Ioniq) and some of them are pathetic excuses
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Investors (like me, full disclosure) believe that Tesla is betting on the right horse here and that the all-or-nothing approach will give them a serious advantage over the "I want to play, too" approach of the traditional car manufacturers.
Tesla surviving/thriving long-term is only tangentially related to whether the stock is over-valued. They can survive as a company and still have a market correction on their stock price, suddenly or gradually. Stock analysts pumping up Tesla are peddling in feelings not facts, so I don't really care what they say (my main point). To be fair, much of the stock market is based on feelings and behavioral economics, but I think Tesla stock is particular glaring example of feelings taking over facts. Tesla does
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You think that stock price needs to be somehow supported by physical assets, but that isn't true and hasn't been for decades.
I buy Tesla stock because I believe that in the future I can sell it for more than I paid for it today. And I believe that because I believe that Tesla will prove that it has the right mission, and more people will want to buy into that. I believe they are doing a lot of things right, not just technologically and by betting on electric cars, but also by cutting out the dealers, which
Tesla's inability to deliver on schedule .... (Score:1)
.... is the main reason I did not reserve a Tesla 3 (after waiting in line). I wasn't about to wait YEARS for a vehicle that could in the end be out of date by the time I receive it.
They claimed that the vehicle could be delivery by Dec 2018 (i.e., 20+ months wait), but as you can see, Tesla has NEVER delivered in time and is always around 2 year behind schedule. With so many companies going into production (for EVs) in the next couple of years, it was just plain stupid to make the investment without any
Tesla miss - anyone surprised? (Score:2)
No Shit! Sherlock! (Score:2)
What's the big deal? (Score:2)
The next quarter, expected production is 15,000, though potentially only 5,000 will be made.
Looks to me that Tesla are less than 3 months behind schedule. So why the anxiety?
I'll just reiterate what I have said before (Score:3)
Tesla is most likely not going to survive as an independent car maker.
Maybe they'll make it as a niche luxury brand, but unless the miraculously start producing, they are going to be crushed by the real carmakers.
All the majors have EVs and hybrids on the way, and they can actually build them across the globe and in large quantities.
I think they are going to be bought up after their stock crashes, or turn into a battery company. Making money on cars is a very tough business.
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As for the competitiveness, well EV is pretty much a battery pack with wheels
The unibody is harder to get right and costs more than the battery pack, so no. No it is not.
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Trying to manufacture EVs without being a battery manufacturer is like trying to manufacture normal cars without being able to manufacture the bloody engine.
Car manufacturers already have experience with vast networks of suppliers, the already outsource a significant amount of parts. Batteries are one of the least complex parts of a car.
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The major car manufacturers don't seem to WANT to play in this specific space. Sure, each of them have a token EV. But they are mostly ugly and slow and don't sell extremely well. Nobody other than Tesla seems to want to make an EV that is fast, fun and looks nice. Maybe the majors don't make as much money on maintenance of EVs and that's why they don't want to play in that space.