Earth's Carbon Dioxide Levels Reach Highest Point In 800,000 Years (washingtonpost.com) 433
An anonymous reader quotes a report from The Washington Post: For the first time since humans have been monitoring, atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide have exceeded 410 parts per million averaged across an entire month (Warning: source may be paywalled; alternative source), a threshold that pushes the planet ever closer to warming beyond levels that scientists and the international community have deemed "safe." The reading from the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii finds that concentrations of the climate-warming gas averaged above 410 parts per million throughout April. The first time readings crossed 410 at all occurred on April 18, 2017, or just about a year ago. Carbon dioxide concentrations -- whose "greenhouse gas effect" traps heat and drives climate change -- were around 280 parts per million circa 1880, at the dawn of the industrial revolution. They're now 46 percent higher. According to Scripps Institute of Oceanography, this amount is the highest in at least the past 800,000 years. "We keep burning fossil fuels. Carbon dioxide keeps building up in the air," said Scripps scientist Ralph Keeling, who maintains the longest continuous record of atmospheric carbon dioxide on Earth. "It's essentially as simple as that."
Getting out of hand (Score:3, Funny)
These Chinese hoaxers are going too far.
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That may be great for you, but what are we higher lifeforms that aren't capable of photosynthesis supposed to do?
Bad news among good news (Score:5, Informative)
This is bad news among good news. In general, CO2 output levels have been flat or going down in both the US and some other countries for a few years. 2018 is actually the first year in the last 4 where the total CO2 production of the US are going up, while they declined for the previous few years https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-natgas-eia-steo/update-1-u-s-carbon-emissions-seen-at-25-year-low-in-2017-idUSL1N1J311B [reuters.com]. But we need to do a lot more. So what can you do to help?
There are three main aspects, personal, political and charitable:
In terms of personal lifestyle differences, the biggest options are to eat less meat and to use a personal car less. If you live somewhere where public transit is an option, you can massively cut down on your carbon footprint by simply using public transit. Not everyone has that option, since you may live somewhere where public transit isn't available or may have a job or family that necessitates getting a car, in which case, if you get a new car, make sure to buy an electric or hybrid. Also in terms of personal activity, one can keep the air conditioning or heating in one's house at not as extreme temperatures or one can better insulate one's house. If one is somewhere installing solar on one's home either for electricity or just for water heating then do it. All these personal changes are also things which overall cause one to save money so there's good reason to do it..
Political change is also important. Much of Europe is taking sensible approaches to these issues (although Germany's anti-nuclear kick isn't helping) but the US is very much not so. In general, the Democrats have a much better record on climate issues and other environmental issues than the current Republicans. This means voting for Democratic candidates and donating to them is important.
In terms of charity, this is a really good way of effecting direct change. Two good options for solar are donating to Everybody Solar https://www.everybodysolar.org/ [everybodysolar.org] which gets solar panels for non-profits like museums and homeless shelters, and the Solar Electric Light Fund https://www.self.org/ [self.org] who helps get solar panels for locations in the developing world. SELF's work is especially important because it helps to cut off the potential of rising carbon dioxide in the developing world even as it helps increase their economies. For wind power, I recommend donating to The New England Wind Fund https://www.massenergy.org/the-wind-fund [massenergy.org]. Also, helping buy carbon offsets is important. The most efficient way of offsetting carbon in terms of tons offset per a dollar spent is Cool Earth https://www.coolearth.org/ [coolearth.org]. Every little bit helps.
Re:Bad news among good news (Score:4, Interesting)
So, putting the government in charge of specifications for technology, not so good. Grassroots make it in demand for “greener” tech, a good deal. The reason solar costs less is that some folks put in the money and created the demand early on. It’s only recently it has become really popular.
California has taken the step of requiring solar on most new construction, hopefully they left open the problem homes, like deep valley homes, or homes that wind or low head hydro might be better. And hopefully they require where reasonable grid tie ins. But to mandate it in the first place is a mistake. They could just incentivize it and it would happen.
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solar is projected to increase in cost due the CA regulations
No, it's not. It's projected to decrease in price throughout the world.
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In 2018, however, carbon dioxide emissions from transportation, power plants, homes and businesses should climb about 2.2 percent, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said. That increase would be due to forecasts for a colder winter, higher economic growth and rising gas prices, the EIA said.
Re:Bad news among good news (Score:5, Insightful)
although Germany's anti-nuclear kick isn't helping Why?
Germanies percentage of nuclear power was around 22%, now it is around 10%.
Germany used to have something like 5% renewables, 30 years ago, now it is close to 40%, this year likely above 40%.
You don't need nukes to produce CO2 free energy ...
Germany is building new coal plants and mines (Score:5, Insightful)
That's the effect of denuclearization: more coal. If they're using more coal, they are doing it wrong. It's foolish to compete nuclear vs renewables until the last coal plant and mine is eliminated permanently.
Re:Germany is building new coal plants and mines (Score:4, Insightful)
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Actually, the coal consumption in Germany is pretty leveled by now.
No it's not. It's dropped 4% y/y since 2013, after a slightly 2.8% uptick caused by the sudden shutdown and safety assessments of their nuclear reactors in 2012.
To say Germany's coal consumption is leveled is completely understating their efforts given the dramatic cut in baseload from their nuclear reduction.
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That's the effect of denuclearization: more coal.
And where is that basis? Fukushima was in 2011, late 2011 Germany announced the denuclearisation. In 2012 they actually started the process. Here's the yearly coal consumption numbers for Germany starting 2012 in millions of tonnes oil equivalent:
2012: 80.5
2013: 82.8
2014: 79.6
2015: 78.5
2016: 75.3
So what has denuclearisation done again? Germany's coal consumption is at its lowest level since the end of its major industrialisation.
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You don't need nukes to produce CO2 free energy ...
True, but Germany have also upped the amount of coal unfortunately. Renweables are great and all, but Germany isn't physically large enough nor has the sophisticated grid and storage infrastructure to deal with the rather variable nature of them.
Which is a shame.
I think technically, the wholesale switch to electric cars and genuine smart grids and smart meters will be the key, becuase that's the most likely way to actually scale things up. By genuine smart
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Coal use is a historical low in Germany (electricity production from coal 2017: 92.6 TWh lignite 2017: 147.5 TWh, vs. ten years ago: coal 2007: 142.0 TWh, lignite 2007: 155.1 WTh, source https://www.ag-energiebilanzen... [ag-energiebilanzen.de]).
Also the grid is pretty advanced and stable in the world while 33% of electricity is already produced by renewables and there is no indication of severe problems (certainly there are challenges, but no challenges which seem too hard to solve).
Re:Bad news among good news (Score:5, Insightful)
Steady or declining CO2 emissions is only good news if we're in a steady state situation.
We're not.
Simply keeping anthropogenic CO2 and CH4 emissions steady is woefully insufficient. The "well below 2 degrees warming" goal of the Paris agreements is itself based on an assumption that we will be able to actively remove [economist.com] CO2 from the atmosphere, requiring a technology we have yet to make feasible at scale.
We cannot afford to burn our currently known reserves of fossil fuels. We have to decarbonise our energy production as quickly as is humanly possible. That countries such as Australia are still granting fossil fuel exploration permits is, frankly, insane.
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Uhh (Score:3, Insightful)
Maybe someone should stop cutting down the Amazon rainforest?
It's just a suggestion; feel free to put profit above everything else.
So What? (Score:4, Insightful)
They are busy appointing judges who will rule in favor of the corporate oligarchy doing exactly what we're seeing: disincentivizing renewable energy, disemboweling clean air/water laws, doling out tax breaks to polluters, attacking scientific processes and thought, defunding education to eliminate critical thinking skills... and they are winning. Only 1/2 of Americans believe global warming is real. http://news.gallup.com/poll/20... [gallup.com]
And other BS/disproven ideas are on rise - like Immunizations cause autism and the growth of flat earthers... Till we value and fund education and critical thinking, we're lost.
Re:Could these readings be skewed? (Score:5, Informative)
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Aha. Thanks.
Re:Could these readings be skewed? (Score:5, Informative)
While it doesn't address what CO2 comes from volcano's, but we can also tell what percent of CO2 is natural vs from burned fossil fuels using carbon isotope ratio from the atmosphere:
http://www.realclimate.org/ind... [realclimate.org]
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CO2 from a volcano would be completely depleted of C14, and would look like CO2 from fossil fuel.
Re:Could these readings be skewed? (Score:4, Informative)
It's possible that the eruption hastened this particular record, but only by the matter of days or months - you can see the graph in the linked article, it's been pretty smooth for decades.
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Do you really want to know?
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Here is a chart [ucsusa.org].
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You do know that we have only one atmosphere, not separate ones for first, second and third world countries, yes?
And emissions don't give a damn about the artificial borders humans draw on the ground.
Re: Could these readings be skewed? (Score:4, Informative)
Re:Could these readings be skewed? (Score:5, Informative)
but IIRC volcanic events are responsible for a lot of CO2.
No they don't, and that is easy to google: https://www.scientificamerican... [scientificamerican.com]
Re:What happened 800,000+ years ago? (Score:5, Funny)
Re:What happened 800,000+ years ago? (Score:5, Informative)
Global warming isn't going to kill all life on earth. The tardigrades aren't even going to notice, given they can live in deep sea hydro-thermal vents and deep space.
Global warming is likely to cause severe water and food stress for humans, some regions are likely to become too hot & humid for humans to survive going outside. https://www.ucsusa.org/our-wor... [ucsusa.org]
Re:What happened 800,000+ years ago? (Score:5, Informative)
So obviously, what happened 800,000 years ago when the average CO2 levels were presumably higher than they are now?
800k is just the end of easy continuous direct CO2 observation from ice cores in their dataset.
You would have to go back a couple million years or more.
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most likely nothing, the reliable ice core measurements ran out.
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That's a mean way to describe Republicans. You apologize now!
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There is no strong indication that it was significantly higher before then.
No strong indication? [archive.org]
Re: Duh (Score:5, Insightful)
Usually the changes have been gradual such that life had time to adjust. Humans especially may be sucker-punched by relatively rapid change.
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Not humans especially, that's silly. Humans have a rather unique ability to adapt to environmental changes - obviously, since we cover nearly the entire surface of the Earth.
Maybe what you meant is modern society. We tend to get very upset when our houses blow away and our cities flood, even though we're in no real mortal danger. The "sucker-punch" will be largely economic.
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Usually the changes have been gradual such that life had time to adjust.
Not really, temperature reconstruction is a bit of black magic. The error bars are so huge that it's hard to determine a lot. See for example, the Greenland ice core series [tinypic.com], there are multiple periods where the temperature fluctuated very rapidly. Here is another selection of various reconstructions to give you an idea of the difficulty of coming up with an accurate picture [wikimedia.org]. Which temperature record is the most accurate? Here's another one that is older, but shows temperature changes coming on very quickly [wikimedia.org].
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Here's another one that is older, but shows temperature changes coming on very quickly [wikimedia.org].
The scale on that graph is too small to support your argument.
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The scale on that graph is too small to support your argument.
A 12 degree jump in temperature isn't enough for you?
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Depends. A 12 degree jump in how much time exactly ?
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But where will we get all the desks? I suppose we could just cut down all the trees as well...
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But the CO2 measurement is just a surrogate for measurement of other indoor pollutants, and really only measures how much outdoor air you're providing compared to how much respiration is going on in the space.
*"Typical" in quotes, because most ventilation systems don't measure CO2 concentration, but are ba
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So I'm trying to understand why going from 400 to 410 is a "sucker punch".
You must not be trying very hard if you're confusing respiratory effects with climate change.
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Data from the past 34 million years (which we have due to trapped atmosphere in bubbles formed on ice sheets)
34 million years, that's funny when oldest ice core is 2.7 million years.
http://www.sciencemag.org/news... [sciencemag.org]
And the CO2 was still low: " the ice revealed atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels that did not exceed 300 parts per million, well below today’s levels"
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No, ice cores go back about a million years. Sedimentation (chemical rock formation in water) goes far back. There is a big discrepancy in resolution with rock vs ice cores. Ice cores show us small changes over short periods (years in some cases). Sedimentation shows larger trends over large time scales (thousands of years).
But you are right, in geologic time CO2 is at a low in the past 800ky. Also note, that historically CO2 follows Temps.... i.e. empirically, CO2 isn't a climate driver.
I have a degree in
Re: Duh (Score:5, Insightful)
Also note, that historically CO2 follows Temps.... i.e. empirically, CO2 isn't a climate driver.
Except we know the current source of CO2 increases and it isn't temperatures. It's mostly due to human activities, burning fossil fuels, making cement, clearing land. There is no known temperature excursion in history that would account for an increase in CO2 to a level greater than it has been in at least 800,000 years and likely several millions of years.
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No model is provably right. However the behavior has a solid scientific explanation based on feedback loops and is not controversial. https://skepticalscience.com/c... [skepticalscience.com]
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Also note, that historically CO2 follows Temps.... i.e. empirically, CO2 isn't a climate driver.
It goes two ways. Rising temperature causes higher CO2, and higher CO2 increases the temperature. During recent ice ages, the temperature changed first (and then got reinforced by the increase in CO2). Right now, the changes start with higher CO2.
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So you want your own chemistry set?
You don't even need a chemistry set. You can get a pretty good measurement of CO2 with an IR LED and a phototransistor.
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With governments pushing for carbon taxes ...
What government is pushing for carbon taxes?
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A carbon tax on electricity is just about the best way known to push business and consumers to transition over to cleaner energy. Far from worthless.
Is that the same China that reached peak coal back in 2013? That China? Or the one in your imagination that you keep talking about?
Re: Carbon taxing is worthless (Score:2)
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Chinses coal has been going down, (slowly) I just showed you facts to show a very slight increase, after 3 years of decreases, yet you lie and say it's at record highs [slashdot.org] and rising over 5% [slashdot.org].
Re: Carbon taxing is worthless (Score:2)
Re:Verification? (Score:4, Informative)
Gonna need more proof on this one. With governments pushing for carbon taxes how do we know this is legit?
Sorry I cant sign off on this bullshit.
More proof on the levels of CO2 in the atmosphere? It's something that has been measured for over 100 years and been measured continuously for over 50 years. It's currently being measured in dozens of places around the world and they're all pretty much in agreement. It's not that difficult to measure so if there were any shenanigans going on it would be quickly called out.
As far as carbon taxes go you can pay now to help mitigate the effects of global warming and the climate change it causes or you can pay later for the massive amount of adaption that will have to take place for adjusting to the effects. It's possible the effects could get bad enough to cause the collapse of our global civilization. How much would that cost you?
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I mean ... a volcano ... couldn't skew readings.
No, considering that we've exceeded volcanic contribution by more than an order of magnitude decades ago already. Volcanoes are almost a measurement error these days.
Re:The Volcano in the Room (Score:5, Informative)
Volcanoes are almost a measurement error these days.
I think he is referring to Kilauea, which is only 20 miles from Mauna Loa, where these CO2 measurements were taken.
But Kilauea wasn't erupting much in April. The new vents are not in Kilauea's main caldera, but are another 20 miles east in Pahoa, and the prevailing winds blow from NE to SW, which is out to sea, not up the slopes of Mauna Loa, which towers more than 9000 feet above the summit of Kilauea.
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And the CO2 reading couldn't have anything to do with current events. I mean ... a volcano ... couldn't skew readings. Right? And climatologists have never used skewed findings to fit their hypothesis - so we should never question them.
Considering that CO2 levels are being measured from dozens of places around the world, most of them not close to a volcano and all of them pretty much in agreement when you adjust for latitude I don't think it's an issue. Measuring the level of CO2 in the atmosphere is a relatively trivial process so if the measurements were being skewed the climate science deniers would be all over it.
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Re: U.S. Emissions Down, European Emissions Up (Score:3)
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http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessm... [www.ipcc.ch]
A bunch of graphs, data and projections say otherwise.
Re:Proof that CO2 does not cause warming (Score:4, Informative)
recent peer-reviewed data points to 1.3 to 1.6 deg K for doubling of CO2,
The study you linked to gives a 95% confidence range of 1.1 to 4.45. That is in line with other estimates. See also this overview: http://www.realclimate.org/ind... [realclimate.org]
Re:Proof that CO2 does not cause warming (Score:4, Interesting)
Actually it is the opposite way around.
The correlation factor is greatly underestimated, that is why current trends are always at the upper edge of the spectrum the IPCC is publishing.
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Perhaps that's why the models don't match the data [drroyspencer.com], and run quite a bit hotter than actual data.
Actually climate models match the observations pretty well. Dr. Spencer needs to update his graph. Also, I'm curious how the model runs and the observations can all start from the same zero point in 1983. At the very least there should be a discrepancy between the HADCRUT and UAH starting points. So he shifted everything to start at the zero point in 1983 which is a pretty unscientific thing to do.
Climate model projections compared to observations [realclimate.org]
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Been said a million times before: CO2 is not a pollutant. It's needed for plants to grow. The current CO2 levels are so low it's amazing plants survive at all. We'd be much better off if CO2 levels tripled from current levels.
All this sky is falling bullshit is about raising taxes and the socialist elite controlling the rest of us.
If you're not socialist elite and worried about CO2 levels, you're just one of their sheep.
Plants need water to grow, therefore plants cannot be overwatered.
Re:Taxes and control (Score:5, Informative)
Did you ever stop long enough to think that just maybe the rise in CO2 levels were part of a natural feedback
We know that the extra CO2 comes from burning fossil fuels. You can verify this for yourself by taking the published numbers for amounts of fossil fuels (coal, gas, oil) produced over the last century, and figuring out how much CO2 each produces, and then adding it all up. You'll get a number that's roughly twice the amount of extra CO2 in the atmosphere over the same time.
If you think it's a "natural feedback", then explain where this CO2 is actually coming from, and what happened to all the fossil CO2 we've produced.
Re: Taxes and control (Score:4, Informative)
Re: Taxes and control (Score:2)
Re: Taxes and control (Score:2)
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Been said a million times before: CO2 is not a pollutant. It's needed for plants to grow. The current CO2 levels are so low it's amazing plants survive at all. We'd be much better off if CO2 levels tripled from current levels.
That's fine and dandy for you and your fellow plants, but we higher life forms are dependent on high oxygen and low carbon dioxide levels to survive.
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Re: Taxes and control (Score:4, Informative)
Zero correlation between CO2 and temperature.
Like in this graph? [wikimedia.org]
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Closer to 3 degrees according to latest insights.
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Doubling the CO2 will add about 1.6 deg K to our temperature; will that be a disaster?
Basically, yes. This is because the change will be fast and because we've set up most of our entire global society (think the location of cities and of the most productive farming) to work well with temperatures (and sea level which is closely connected) as they currently are.
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So you think at 1200 parts per million you'll have headaches and feel tired?
Yes. In particular it is why there is a lot of ongoing effort on air circulation in schools, with a target in most nations closer to 600 or below, as higher levels affect learning.
Re:And before that? (Score:5, Informative)
Re:And before that? (Score:5, Insightful)
Yes?
What's with all the anti-science ACs JAQing off in this thread.
Yes CO2 has been higher in the past, no all lfe didn't die then and no humans did't have a population of 7 billion wiht hundreds of trillions of dollars of infrastructure with a few meters of sea level.
Life will go on, but it won't be comfortable.
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Although there's no question that climate change in itself won't end all human life, it does lead to food stress and resource shortages leading to more mass migration, famine and war. It only takes one nuclear war triggering event to say no, human life won't go on. A more likely question is - will human civilisation survive? Maybe not a bad outcome for the planet, but not a good one for us.
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>Yes CO2 has been higher in the past, no all lfe didn't die then
Yeah...about that [mit.edu]...
Re:There are two sides (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:800,000 years is short (Score:5, Informative)
Ice ages happen on a timescale of tens of millions of years.
Actually we have had four glacial periods in the last million years.
Re: 800,000 years is short (Score:2)
Most of the time
Make sure you average-in data from time periods when Earth was younger and at complete different stages than it has been for millions of years... you know, just to be accurate. ;)
Re:800,000 years is short (Score:5, Insightful)
The plant can and has been way warmer than currently. Yes. But during none of these times human tried to survive on it, that's gonna be a new one.
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Everybody knows you can't build a fighter jet without opposable thumbs, much less fly one.
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Re:Other influencers locally (Score:4, Informative)
Look at the longer trend, and you'll see no evidence of volcanic eruptions interfering with the data.
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/... [noaa.gov]
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/... [noaa.gov]
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We better stop those damned volcanoes from erupting!
Human activity emits far, far more CO2 than volcanoes.
Re:Let me know (Score:5, Informative)
Ice core data shows a several-hundred-year lag between rising temperatures and higher CO2.
Rising temperature and higher CO2 form a mutual causal relationship. The path from CO2 to temperature is a lot quicker (few decades max), so you don't recognize it in the graphs.
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Ice core data shows a several-hundred-year lag between rising temperatures and higher CO2.
So where in the historical record is the spike in temperatures that is causing CO2 to rise to level not seen in over 800,000 years? If temperatures were hot enough to cause this exceptional rise in CO2 you'd think we would have noticed.
And more to the point how is it possible that human emissions which are more than twice the year to year increase in atmospheric CO2 levels are not the cause of the increase?