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Earth Science

Sea Levels May Rise More Rapidly Due To Greenland Ice Melt 282

An anonymous reader quotes a report from The Guardian: Rising sea levels could become overwhelming sooner than previously believed, according to the authors of the most comprehensive study yet of the accelerating ice melt in Greenland. Run-off from this vast northern ice sheet -- currently the biggest single source of meltwater adding to the volume of the world's oceans -- is 50% higher than pre-industrial levels and increasing exponentially as a result of manmade global warming, says the paper, published in Nature on Wednesday. Almost all of the increase has occurred in the past two decades -- a jolt upwards after several centuries of relative stability. This suggests the ice sheet becomes more sensitive as temperatures go up.

The researchers used ice core data from three locations to build the first multi-century record of temperature, surface melt and run-off in Greenland. Going back 339 years, they found the first sign of meltwater increase began along with the industrial revolution in the mid-1800s. The trend remained within the natural variation until the 1990s, since when it has spiked far outside of the usual nine- to 13-year cycles.
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Sea Levels May Rise More Rapidly Due To Greenland Ice Melt

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  • Good (Score:5, Interesting)

    by nagora ( 177841 ) on Thursday December 06, 2018 @08:03AM (#57758620)

    Washington D.C. is very near sea-level, isn't it?

    • Washington D.C. is very near sea-level, isn't it?

      DC is low enough to be affected by tides in the Potomac estuary. The lowest area is in the southeast near the confluence of the Potomac and Anacostia rivers. If you have ever been to the 'hood in that area, and survived without being shot, you would know that if it was flooded, nothing of value would be lost.

    • ...for the fish, enjoy more water!
      • ...for the fish, enjoy more water!

        That is incompatible with them due to temperature or chemical composition being off from what they evolved to survive in. Eventually they'll evolve again but fish levels will probably fall (or at least diversity will fall- there will likely be some species for whom the change is beneficial).

    • by hey! ( 33014 )

      At the tidal basin, yes; Washington DC was built on a swamp. However it does have some topography, and the 2m sea level rise predicted under the (relatively pessimistic) RCP8.5 scenario would leave nearly all the city well above sea level. The tidal basin would stretch north onto the Mall, returning the reclaimed land around the Washington Monument back its natural state as a peninsula.

      You'd need ten meters of rise for the Capitol Building to be flooded; 20m to drown the White House and Executive Office Bu

      • Will people please stop fantasizing about cities like NY, DC, and SF flooding? It won't be allowed to happen, regardless of what might happen elsewhere. All of those cities have relatively narrow paths to the open ocean that can, and certainly will, be blocked with dams to hold back rising sea levels.

        And most of Florida's urban coastline will be fortified & raised with new crushed limestone and/or concrete as hurricanes progressively destroy it storm by storm, until Miami (and much of the rest of Florid

  • by Anonymous Coward
    Once upon I time, I thought it was a legitimate concern. But they've Chicken Littled it way beyond anything I have patience for at this point. Every week or two, we get another 'report' speeding up the timeline to armageddon by 25-50% or adding another foot or two to predicted sea level rise. I can only take so much before I have no choice but to write this whole thing off as fear mongering. To what end, I don't know, but it's clearly obvious at this point that it is - nothing is this dire. Nothing.

    Lo
    • by JoshuaZ ( 1134087 ) on Thursday December 06, 2018 @08:41AM (#57758806) Homepage
      This is an extremely confused response. This essentially says that the more scientists are concerned about a problem the less you are concerned. If you keep seeing a lot of different articles and ways something might be a problem, and one isn't personally a subject matter expert, deciding to then dismiss all of it is the opposite of good logic. That said, it is true that by nature of media coverage the less concerning predictions about climate change get less attention in the general media, so you might not see them as much, but that doesn't change the fact that the broad consensus is pretty severe. Studies like this are trying to figure out just how severe that is, and even the mild predictions are pretty serious. Honestly, your response comes across a little as someone who has decided that you aren't going to bother making any even small changes in your lifestyle and then found a justification for it.
      • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

        This is an extremely confused response. This essentially says that the more scientists are concerned about a problem the less you are concerned. If you keep seeing a lot of different articles and ways something might be a problem, and one isn't personally a subject matter expert, deciding to then dismiss all of it is the opposite of good logic. That said, it is true that by nature of media coverage the less concerning predictions about climate change get less attention in the general media, so you might not see them as much, but that doesn't change the fact that the broad consensus is pretty severe. Studies like this are trying to figure out just how severe that is, and even the mild predictions are pretty serious. Honestly, your response comes across a little as someone who has decided that you aren't going to bother making any even small changes in your lifestyle and then found a justification for it.

        I largely share the parent's conclusions, and am pretty convinced it's the most rational response too.

        If we walk back to Gore's noble prize for an inconvenient truth and the IPCC's work, at that time those calling for action and change all cited the scientific consensus, that the science was settled. Anyone with a dissenting opinion on the impacts or the best course of action was called a denier.

        The thing is, the crowd trying to push an agenda of carbon taxes, industry cutbacks, etc has repeatedly dragged o

    • by gtall ( 79522 ) on Thursday December 06, 2018 @08:46AM (#57758838)

      Thank you for that well-reasoned screed on how we don't need to do anything about the problem we've created for ourselves and future generations. We should have a monument erected to chisel your words in granite: To future generations: piss off, we don't care about you.

      • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

        by Mashiki ( 184564 )

        Thank you for that well-reasoned screed on how we don't need to do anything about the problem we've created for ourselves and future generations. We should have a monument erected to chisel your words in granite: To future generations: piss off, we don't care about you.

        That's not what they said. They said, that rampant fear mongering simply makes them not give a fuck because the same thing has been pushed over and over and over and over again to the point for the last 40-60 years that if it had happened like they said, the world would be: On fire, drowned, and everything would be both dead and alive, while starving from a lack of oxygen and burning alive because there's no ozone layer, while there would be no more snowfalls, and massive snowfalls all at the same time and

      • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

        TBH, I am over it. Future generations will be fine. Just like generations that came after the Black Death, the Fall of Rome, and the Late Bronze Age collapse. If future generations do hold a grudge it will be because they have inherited the bad habit of judging the past with modern morals, ethics and understanding.

    • by religionofpeas ( 4511805 ) on Thursday December 06, 2018 @08:51AM (#57758866)

      So how would you recommend that new knowledge is shared with the public so that you would actually believe it ?

      • So how would you recommend that new knowledge is shared with the public so that you would actually believe it ?

        I think folks like the parent are asking to be engaged honestly, rather than trying to be tricked and frightened into doing what they are 'supposed' to do.

        He's just pointing out a very real problem that the alarmist crowd is creating.

        Go back to the first IPCC report and Al Gore's movie and shared Nobel prize. Assume the parent poster paid attention, looked at the evidence and agreed it looks sound and made a decision to make certain changes and support some actions to improve things. Now, during all the bac

    • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

      I don't want them to hate us and look back on us with disgust.

      For what it's worth, the evidence is that EVERY generation looks back on the ones that have gone before with some degree of disgust....

      • I don't want them to hate us and look back on us with disgust.

        For what it's worth, the evidence is that EVERY generation looks back on the ones that have gone before with some degree of disgust....

        It's true in both directions. The older generation always thinks the younger generation is destroying society. There are lots of writers from classical Greece and Rome who have made comments about how the next generation will ruin civilization. One generation complaining about another has been a static theme in human history.

        • the next generation will ruin civilization ... One generation complaining about another has been a static theme in human history.

          Considering nearly all civilizations have collapsed into ruin, a few generations were correct about the younger ones ruining everything!

    • Look, I don't want to hand our offspring a big shitburger after we're gone. I don't want them to hate us and look back on us with disgust. But there's no way things are as bad as they say.

      [citation needed]

      I would have given money, changed my lifestyle, my purchasing habits, whatever was required - and I did, for a time.

      That's not how it works. What's needed is for you to vote for people who will do something about it, and convince others to do so as well. Nothing you can do on a personal level means jack diddly shit.

    • by ShanghaiBill ( 739463 ) on Thursday December 06, 2018 @09:17AM (#57759006)

      Once upon I time, I thought it was a legitimate concern. But they've Chicken Littled it way beyond anything I have patience for at this point.

      You should improve your critical thinking skills. Whether it is a "legitimate concern" or not, is completely unrelated to whether "they" are Chicken Littling it.

    • by dasunt ( 249686 ) on Thursday December 06, 2018 @09:22AM (#57759034)

      Once upon I time, I thought it was a legitimate concern. But they've Chicken Littled it way beyond anything I have patience for at this point. Every week or two, we get another 'report' speeding up the timeline to armageddon by 25-50% or adding another foot or two to predicted sea level rise. I can only take so much before I have no choice but to write this whole thing off as fear mongering. To what end, I don't know, but it's clearly obvious at this point that it is - nothing is this dire. Nothing.

      Scientists have been making warnings, and of course the news reports the most extreme scenarios, distorting the picture.

      But oceans are 30% more acidic than pre-Industrial levels, the area covered by arctic sea ice is trending downwards, and sea levels have a measurable rise.

      It won't be the end of humanity, but it is already developing into an expensive problem to fix, as well a politically destabilizing problem as global climate change creates new winners and losers.

      • Indeed. One of the biggest impacts we can see is damage from precipitation changes. Areas once fertile are now not getting enough rain- areas that once got less rain are now getting more- which is bad for cities which don't have proper storm drainage and leads to more flooding events. It's quite possible that climate change already costs the world many billions of dollars a year and we just can't measure the full scale of it accurately yet.

    • Insightful my anus

      This is just a longwinded form of "It snowed in Atlanta, global warming LOL"..
    • by MrMr ( 219533 )
      The scientists doing this research are quite serious, and are actually trying to get rid of the speculation. Sea level is a thing around here and has to be managed, no matter what the causes are of variations. One interesting line from the abstract is for instance: "We find that the initiation of increases in GrIS melting closely follow the onset of industrial-era Arctic warming in the mid-1800s, but that the magnitude of GrIS melting has only recently emerged beyond the range of natural variability". Proba
    • by Gilgaron ( 575091 ) on Thursday December 06, 2018 @10:00AM (#57759296)
      The worse it gets the more fields of research start seeing trends. For example, in microbiology/epidemiology we're seeing that climate change has changed where various disease vectors can live. The entomologists are noting vastly decreased biomass of insects, and so on. So, as things continue to get worse, you will see more impacts from a greater variety of scientists discussed, with increasingly dire predictions of a worse case scenario. So it goes from "it is getting warmer" from the climatologists, to "the ocean is acidifying" from the marine biologists, "diseases are spreading" from the microbiologists. In between, any armchair guy can correlate these things and decide that the earth will snowball into Venus. He may be wrong about the scale, but something less like desertification of the equatorial regions wouldn't exactly be a good thing. Also, if you're familiar with chemical titration, you'll be aware that systems can buffer changes to a degree, and then further inputs will affect change in the system linearly instead. As various buffer systems get overwhelmed, the pace of change will increase.
      • So what are the positive effects of a 2C rise going to be? There have to be some, why aren't they ever discussed for context?
        • Mostly because it'll be very bad for human civilization. It'll be good for jellyfish, insects that survive the current collapse will be less constrained on size with the higher O2. The rest of the wild megafauna (down to 7% or so of total mammalian biomass vs humans + livestock) that have survived the anthropocene so far will probably go extinct, which will be sort of good for trees, because not all of them are going to survive with their ranges being much less contiguous than they were during historical
    • It will be worse than they say, you are indeed handing such a world to your children, and if you cared you'd have researched whst scientists said rather than listen to talking heads.

      But you didn't.

      And that's all I need to know.

  • With that much fresh water entering the north Atlantic, it could well shift the North Atlantic current and that could more drastically affect the climate of Europe and create some dramatic cooling there. That might, in the long run, be worse for Europe than the rising sea levels.
  • Stop it Greenland!
  • If it stops the north atlantic conveyor, it could cause a mini-ice age instead, that would refreeze the arctic. Of course, northern Europe, Russia, nor anybody close to the equator might not be happy.
    • by hey! ( 33014 )

      A slowdown of the North Atlantic Conveyor would result in reduced frequency hurricanes for the Southeast US. That's the good news. The bad news is that the ones that made it here will carry a lot more rain.

  • by GameboyRMH ( 1153867 ) <gameboyrmh@@@gmail...com> on Thursday December 06, 2018 @10:55AM (#57759746) Journal

    Denialists would often ask, "what if these imperfect estimates are too high?" and scientifically-minded people would counter with "what if these imperfect estimates are too low?" In the last few years it's been obvious that they were mostly too low (as in conservative) across the board. Oddly enough the constant unfounded accusations of bias toward climate science has created a real bias toward conservative estimates, [sciencealert.com] as scientists all fear overestimating and becoming the deniosphere's celebrated Chicken Little.

  • The whole notion of sea level rise assumes that the Earth's crust is static and unchanging. Definitely not the case.

    • Are you talking about the shape of the earth changing with the shift in mass? You'd still see sea level rise everywhere , just more in the equator than nearer the poles.
  • You know that Florida is mostly low-lying and already suffering as a result of sea-level rise? Well, it now looks like you can look forward to hoards of Floridian climate refugees seeking shelter across the USA sooner than you expected. You know Florida? Where the bat-shit crazy people tend to be? They'll soon be among you. May you live in "interesting" times.

"Facts are stupid things." -- President Ronald Reagan (a blooper from his speeach at the '88 GOP convention)

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