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Netflix 'Would Lose 57 Percent of Their Subscribers If They Added Commercials' (netimperative.com) 287

According to new research from marketing technology firm Audience Project, the majority (57%) of UK customers would stop watching Netflix if commercials were introduced, and even lowering subscriptions would cause a significant drop off of 42%. Here are some of the other key findings: - In the UK, Netflix takes the lion's share of the streaming audience at 70%, followed by BBC iPlayer (61%). Interestingly, YouTube, ITV Player and All4, all of which host ads, saw a decline.

- TV is still the preferred streaming device in the UK used by 42% of respondents.

- Streaming is on the rise particularly amongst the young, with almost as many 15-25 year olds streaming/downloading (63%) as watching traditional TV (65%)
"This is proof, if it were needed, that Netflix is right to focus on growing through its investment in content rather than considering hosting advertising any time soon," Netimperative reports.

Martyn Bentley, Commercial Director UK at Audience Project, comments: "Our findings highlight the growing importance of targeting and relevance in advertising. As consumers have increasing choice over whether or not they see ads, both broadcasters and advertisers alike need to work hard to ensure that campaigns enhance experience, rather than detract -- plus it suggests that greater inroads need to be made with Connected TV as a means to help tailor advertising at a granular level."
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Netflix 'Would Lose 57 Percent of Their Subscribers If They Added Commercials'

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  • by 110010001000 ( 697113 ) on Tuesday January 22, 2019 @09:42PM (#58005202) Homepage Journal
    If Youtube had ads their viewership would drop a lot too.
    • by dohzer ( 867770 )

      Red, nuff sed.

      • What is Red?
        • Re:Same with Youtube (Score:5, Interesting)

          by Hadlock ( 143607 ) on Tuesday January 22, 2019 @10:32PM (#58005466) Homepage Journal

          It turns off ads on youtube for roughly $10/mo USD
           
          We watch most of our evening news as clips on youtube, stuff like the late show with colbert, last week tonight, cnn, msnbc, fox news etc and specialty channels all have ads now when you watch a segment.
           
          Also useful for playlists of music, as we use our TV as a youtube jukebox when pandora isn't cutting it.

          • Re:Same with Youtube (Score:5, Informative)

            by Bobrick ( 5220289 ) on Tuesday January 22, 2019 @11:23PM (#58005746)
            NoScript and AdBlock get rid of the ads for free, just sayin'.
            • youtube doesn't even encrypt their videos on the wire, rather easier than having to find the AES key and IV amongst the network traffic along with the video links like some other video hosting sites.
            • Re:Same with Youtube (Score:5, Interesting)

              by JaredOfEuropa ( 526365 ) on Wednesday January 23, 2019 @05:08AM (#58006644) Journal
              Not on Android TV devices...

              Besides, I prefer to pay for my content, especially if it's a more or less fair deal: get ads, or pay a reasonable fee to get rid of them. As soon as YouTube offered Red (or whatever they call it these days) in my country, I subscribed. We watch a fair amount of stuff on it.
            • NoScript and AdBlock get rid of the ads for free, just sayin'.

              So how does that help against the blatant product placement in Netflix shows?

          • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

            How come it's only $10 in the US, but in the UK it's $15.64?!

            If Google was a little more fair I might be tempted. This is just a total rip-off.

          • Wait, wut?

            You watch both msnbc and fox?

            Don't you know that you can only join one mob?

        • Try it:  redtube.com
    • Re:Same with Youtube (Score:5, Informative)

      by Darinbob ( 1142669 ) on Tuesday January 22, 2019 @10:21PM (#58005408)

      Well, Ad Block stops 100% of Youtube ads for me, so I never even knew Youtube had ads until I started watching it via television instead. Since Youtube started on the computer I suspect most users who have ad block are fine with it, and those without ad blockers may find that other web sites are far more annoying with ads.

      • by foxtyke ( 766988 )

        I was the same way except my first encounter with a YouTube ad was on the phone... shortly after I found modifying DNS worked wonders since I am on WiFI 95% of the time anyways.

      • Re:Same with Youtube (Score:5, Interesting)

        by AmiMoJo ( 196126 ) on Wednesday January 23, 2019 @05:55AM (#58006760) Homepage Journal

        If they offered a reasonable ad-free option I'd take it. But $12/month is ridiculous. Way more that Netflix, for a start, and even if I cared about their premium content I wouldn't pay that much for it.

        It seems to be because you get ad-free music, but I don't want that.

        Give me ad-free normal YouTube for $2/month and I'm in. Otherwise I'm sticking with ad blocking.

    • by godrik ( 1287354 ) on Tuesday January 22, 2019 @10:23PM (#58005420)

      Some times I watch Youtube on my phone where I don't have an adblocker (maybe should get one). And it is unbearable. I end up watching no more than a couple of videos before doing something else.

      • Re:Same with Youtube (Score:5, Interesting)

        by AmiMoJo ( 196126 ) on Wednesday January 23, 2019 @05:58AM (#58006764) Homepage Journal

        On Android you can use the open source Newpipe app for ad-free YouTube, or a hacked official YouTube app.

        Unfortunately it's become impossible to block YouTube ads on smart TVs because they changed the way that the ads are served. They now come from the same domains as the actual content, and there are thousands of them, and even if you manage to block them it just causes the app to hang as it rotates through domains looking for one that works. A PiHole or similar is no longer effective.

      • Check out Youtube Vanced .... no ad ;)
    • Ads or subscription, pick one. Youtube is trying to dip their toe in both pools.
  • by goombah99 ( 560566 ) on Tuesday January 22, 2019 @09:50PM (#58005252)

    it's not 57% it's 56.732%. Let's keep this discussion rooted in reality people.

  • by dgatwood ( 11270 ) on Tuesday January 22, 2019 @09:50PM (#58005254) Homepage Journal

    The interesting question is not whether a large portion of their existing subscribers would bail with commercials. That goes without saying. Even if they cut the price massively, one of the major reasons for paying for Netflix is the ability to get good content without commercials, and they know this.

    Rather, the interesting questions is whether a lower-cost or free ad-subsidized tier would bring in enough additional subscribers to offset the loss from subscribers in the ad-free tier switching to that ad-subsidized tier.

    • Maybe limit the ad-subsidized tier to a lower resolution?

    • by rtb61 ( 674572 )

      Reality corporate douche bag creep. Once they do ads they will creap them up to the highest tier no matter what, because psychopath executives and bullshit spreadsheets. Introduce ads and I am gone, done and finished, never look back, regardless of tiering bullshit because it is inevitable that advertisers will, scream and scream and scream at Netflix to allow them to scream and scream and scream at us. As for youtube ads, well, want to not sell me something try to force me to watch an ad for it and I guara

    • I suspect that it wouldn't be necessary to bring in new subscribers. I don't have any numbers, but it seems entirely plausible that revenue from ads could more than double their per-subscriber revenue.

      Also: this is a UK survey. British people are accustomed to watching TV without ads, so it seems likely that a larger portion of them would ditch Netflix under that circumstance than people would in the United States, for example.

      On the other hand, Netflix loses more than just revenue if they lose such a
      • by xonen ( 774419 )

        Also: this is a UK survey. British people are accustomed to watching TV without ads, so it seems likely that a larger portion of them would ditch Netflix under that circumstance than people would in the United States, for example.

        I'm not so sure, it could work the other way round too. Like, in my country we have public TV and ads. Since i dislike ads, this was a reason to cut the cable a long time ago. Netflix is a welcome alternative.

        However, if our public channels were to be ad-free, the incentive to subscribe to Netflix would be a lot lower. One could imagine that in our country the number of Netflix subscribers that dislike ads, and have a Netflix subscription just because of that, might actually be higher than in the UK.

      • British people are accustomed to watching TV without ads,

        Not really. It's only the BBC channels that do not carry ads. Most (if not all) OTA channels carry ads. So you can often watch programs that would go out ad-free in the USA through a service like Showtime, with ads on Channel4.

    • by tlhIngan ( 30335 )

      Rather, the interesting questions is whether a lower-cost or free ad-subsidized tier would bring in enough additional subscribers to offset the loss from subscribers in the ad-free tier switching to that ad-subsidized tier.

      No they won't. Because it goes against their existing business model for content.

      You have to remember, Netflix makes content to attract subscribers. They look at the demographics of their subscriber base and figure out what kind of programming they'd like, then make that content so they'd

  • by GrahamJ ( 241784 ) on Tuesday January 22, 2019 @09:53PM (#58005270)

    Our findings highlight the growing importance of targeting and relevance in advertising

    No, the findings highlight the fact that consumers don't want advertising. Anyone other than a marketing droid would see this as declining importance of ads. Talk about cognitive dissonnance.

    • by ceoyoyo ( 59147 ) on Tuesday January 22, 2019 @10:20PM (#58005404)

      Copied and pasted exactly the above quote to say just what you did.

      Advertising people are special. I've known a couple, very nice people, in terrible jobs. The stories they tell themselves to justify what they do. Most of the ones I've known have eventually gotten out. And their story changes when they do.

      • Advertising people are special. I've known a couple, very nice people, in terrible jobs. The stories they tell themselves to justify what they do. Most of the ones I've known have eventually gotten out. And their story changes when they do.

        I don't think there's anything fundamentally wrong with what they do. They provide something of benefit to their clients, and fund something that the people watching the ads actually wants. sure, most of us would clearly rather pay money, but its only recently we've had

        • "They provide something of benefit to their clients"

          Sometimes. Sometimes they don't. Sometimes they actually do harm, like when they make commercials that offend existing customers, or prospective ones.

        • by ceoyoyo ( 59147 )

          I think there is such a thing as ethical advertising, but it's not usually what's practiced. Ad people's job is to use psychological manipulation to part the most people with the most money, as efficiently as possible. Otherwise advertising would be a little note once in a while "hey, we made this, give it a try if you think it's something you'd like."

          To be clear, it's not the ad people's fault. Advertising has been optimized by competition, exactly as market capitalism is supposed to do. Unfortunately it's

          • To be clear, it's not the ad people's fault. Advertising has been optimized by competition, exactly as market capitalism is supposed to do. Unfortunately it's a sector where the optimal solution is exploiting people.

            But if adblocking is any indicator, the optimization has reached the point of regression.

            I pay for NetFlix. I simply won't pay for it if I'm paying for ads.

            Aside from the annoying repetitious nature and the massive cutting of movies and even television shows that sometimes lose important parts of the movie or lose funny moments deemed too racy or something, it's jarring.

            We live in a funny world where a scat or pee joke in a movie might be censored and the spot filled with an ad for the new sexualiz

            • by ceoyoyo ( 59147 )

              We can hope. I've been predicting a massive scaling back on advertising for years, but it hasn't happened yet. I don't think advertising is anywhere near as effective as the money that's spent on it. Not just directly, but through things like the valuation of advertising platforms... I mean social media companies.

              • We can hope. I've been predicting a massive scaling back on advertising for years, but it hasn't happened yet. I don't think advertising is anywhere near as effective as the money that's spent on it. Not just directly, but through things like the valuation of advertising platforms... I mean social media companies.

                I listened to a sports show on ESPN in the mornings. It's pretty popular, if pretty goofy. But it has reached the point where 50 percent of the show is outside advertising, and there is about a minute of inline advertising during the beginning and end of each segment.

                So now, the actual show is just supporting the advertising. six 5 minute segments, with the addition of 12 minutes inline makes for 42 minutes of ads and 18 minutes of programming. The end game of advertising metastasis? Well, that just i

    • by lazarus ( 2879 )

      Oh and here I am without mod points...

      I would pay double what they are asking before I would continue to subscribe to a service with ads. I can't describe how much I hate them -- enough that I have never paid for "cable" or even watched over-the-air television. I've been waiting for ad-free over-the-top services my whole life.

    • by mentil ( 1748130 ) on Wednesday January 23, 2019 @03:46AM (#58006462)

      This raises the question of what's going to happen to video ads once broadcast TV goes away. If everyone's watching commercial-free services like Netflix, then where are people going to see these things? Are advertisers just going to rely on other types of ads, like on web pages? Print is dying as fast, although some audio streaming services have audio ads. Maybe it'll move to sponsorships, with the content producer talking about the product or having product placement.

      • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

        Shows will continue to have more and more product placement. When you see a character on screen there will be a link that lets you buy their entire outfit, everything in their house and the car they rode in on.

        Also you are going to need ad-blocking glasses when you go outside. And earplugs.

      • Maybe it'll move to sponsorships, with the content producer talking about the product or having product placement.

        You mean like they already do on Netflix? Bought any Eggo recently without realizing why? Watched "Love" and felt the urge to take an Uber over competing services?

    • by Solandri ( 704621 ) on Wednesday January 23, 2019 @05:35AM (#58006700)

      No, the findings highlight the fact that consumers don't want advertising. Anyone other than a marketing droid would see this as declining importance of ads. Talk about cognitive dissonnance.

      False dichotomy. The comparison here isn't ads vs no ads. If you compare those two scenarios, of course nobody wants ads.

      The correct relevant comparison is no ads but a higher cost, vs lower cost (or no cost) but with ads. And although I hate ads and am willing to pay to avoid them, the vast majority of people seem to disagree with me. They vote with their pocketbooks for lower cost with more ads.

  • Count me among them. (Score:4, Interesting)

    by dmomo ( 256005 ) on Tuesday January 22, 2019 @09:57PM (#58005284)

    I refuse to pay twice. That's why I have never given Hulu a cent. I don't care how great the shows are, or how much my kids will kick and scream.

    • You know that hulu has an adfree tier, right? I think it's$4/mo more

    • ...and why Amazon is playing a dangerous game. They're starting to put a few ads onto Prime Video, and they annoy the hell out of me (not least because they get in the way of the viewing, but most of all - because I've already paid for Prime). Worse still, they put ads on stuff that's on there and Netflix - they even show it in the search results. I'm now trying to avoid clicking the Amazon rendition of anything that has a Netflix alternative.

  • 100% of Attention (Score:5, Insightful)

    by dohzer ( 867770 ) on Tuesday January 22, 2019 @10:07PM (#58005344)

    They lose 100% of my attention when ads are on anyway.
    Step 1. Mute.
    Step 2. Look away or look at another device.
    Step 3. (Optional) Consider how I could acquire the same content with no ads, any means necessary.

    • Re:100% of Attention (Score:5, Interesting)

      by 93 Escort Wagon ( 326346 ) on Wednesday January 23, 2019 @05:07AM (#58006642)

      Back in the old days of television, commercial breaks were prime time for “potty breaks”. During hugely popular shows (e.g. Roots or the Super Bowl), there were anecdotes about large old apartment buildings having their plumbing fail because too many people flushed at the same time.

      • In power generation planning terms, this is still a thing. Over here (UK,) there's a known phenomenon where the national grid fires up extra capacity roundabout the approximate times of the main ad breaks of certain soap operas in an evening (on commercial TV, we get fewer ad breaks in general than, say, the US, so this is a more predictable thing), because of so many people getting up to put electric kettles on to make a hot drink during the break (cooker-top kettles being the exception rather than the rul

    • They lose 100% of my attention when ads are on anyway.
      Step 1. Mute.
      Step 2. Look away or look at another device.
      Step 3. (Optional) Consider how I could acquire the same content with no ads, any means necessary.

      And tivo kindly implemented skip the adds feature to many shows (not sure if other DVRs have this). Strangely, I'm buying no less goods from advertisements when using skip.

  • by Rick Schumann ( 4662797 ) on Tuesday January 22, 2019 @10:08PM (#58005346) Journal
    Why the actual fuck are you going to PAY every month for something like Netflix if you're still going to be subjected to commercials? It would make zero sense. if they want to add commercials then they should charge ZERO dollars per month. If you PAY for it then you should get ZERO commercials, plain and simple. If they're not making enough money then raise the damned subscription fee. Otherwise why bother? Just put an antenna on your roof at that point and pay nothing anyway, record everything on a DVR, and skip past the commercials.
    • by sysrammer ( 446839 ) on Tuesday January 22, 2019 @11:02PM (#58005626) Homepage

      This is how HBO/et.al. started:
      q. People said "Why would i want to PAY for a TV channel when I can watch it for free?"
      a. Well, exclusive content and no ads. ...and then there were a few ads for a few HBO shows. Ok, we can accept that...sorta like movie trailers. And then you had "This show presented by Proctor & Gambel", but that was just at the start and end, and we said..."ok, that doesn't hurt much"... ...and shortly after that, the frog was boiled.

      PS: from an old rant: "Who needs all these channels? Who the heck is going to watch a channel about the WEATHER?"

    • Netflix would lose a lot of subscribers but not all of them would leave.

      Look at all the people (tens of millions) who pay for cable television and put up with ads. There are also millions who pay for Hulu and are shown ads.

      • So are you unironically claiming that the average person isn't as dumb as a box of rocks? If they weren't dumb then Fecesbook and Twitter wouldn't be so popular.
    • by Tukz ( 664339 )

      The same could be said about Cable TV. Cable TV was introduced as a paid service without ads. Look how that turned out.

    • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

      They see people paying hundreds of dollars for cable TV which has a hell of a lot of advertising.

      That reveals a lot about how most people think of these services. They hate ads, but they want the content and the deal has to be a lot shittier than just pay+ads to put them off.

  • ITV Player and All4, all of which host ads, saw a decline.

    Shock. Perhaps it has something to do with the ITV player hosting almost no programs that are not either 1. "Reality TV" 2. Old or 3. Very old. As for Ch4, they have turned their Roku interface to sh*t. Much more difficult to find anything now. I can only think that the people who design the UI never actually use it themselves.

  • by seoras ( 147590 ) on Tuesday January 22, 2019 @10:39PM (#58005522)

    This makes me wonder if advertising, on video media, runs a risk of dying out.
    Youtube is now offering an ad free subscription.
    If NetFlix has such a large chunk of the viewing population then where can you get your product videos into eye balls?
    Facebook? Not everyone uses it and you can ignore most things there.
    How long until Facebook offers an ad free subscription or does it capitalise on the other channels shutting up shop?
    It's not like NetFlix customers don't have an alternative as an en masse return to piracy could be one public backlash,
    A balance must be maintained.
    This is an interesting study as it raises a lot of questions about the future of screen viewing and advertising's place in it - if at all.

    • For everything produced, here are a series of questions that must be decided:
      1. Who's going to pay for it?
      2. goto 1

  • Reminds me of when I signed up for a trial week of Hulu, not knowing anything about it other than that it was a competitor to NetFlix. First day, when I saw a commercial in the the middle of a show, my jaw dropped nearly to the floor. I didn't need the next six days to try it out. Cancelled it on the first day during the trial period.

    If I'm paying for a service, I'd expect it to not have any commercials. Like another poster said above, I wouldn't even use the service if they paid me $5 or $10 per month.

    • I think they have a commercial free tier that costs more, Netflix may be researching what would happen if their lowest tier also had commercials.
  • It's impossible to paused when browsing their content without some preview automatically launching.
  • Netflix have what you or I would be told is not a business model if we went to the bank: sell everything you have at a loss. Same as Uber, the only way it works is if you drive everyone else out of business before you run out of cash. That's just not going to happen.

    So, obviously, they need to find some way of making this pay and if advertising is their answer then instantly they become old media delivered over new pipes.

    I'm sure none of the people who were in at the ground floor care about any of this; the

  • This could be a moment similar to one all successful companies hit sooner or later - the point where they have saturated their market.

    Netflix has seen incredible growth, likely a lot of it from signing on new clients. But the problem is, they have allowed the stock market to believe that this sort of growth is sustainable, when everything we know about markets tells us that this isn't possible. So it's possible that this is Netflix floating the idea to see how people react, for example by analyzing trend
  • by Shaitan ( 22585 ) on Wednesday January 23, 2019 @06:01AM (#58006782)

    How the hell does advertising enhance programming? It always detracts.

  • The major difference is that the ITV hub is streaming only, while iPlayer allows downloads. And lots of people are watching TV while travelling, where your internet connection is either very expensive, very slow, or if you are underground, non existing.

    With iPlayer I have a reasonably good choice of TV series that I can download at home with a good internet connection and watch on the train for free, and movies can usually be downloaded for a week.

    Being advert free is nice, but other factors are much
  • The day the even consider that possibility is the day I ditch them.
  • Just the mixing of included with Prime and "buy now" on Amazon is highly detracting to me on Prime. I left cable to escape the constant barrage of brain damaging commercials. Netflix is the only refuge. Even DVD's sometimes have commercials.

    Netflix's big price hikes are also a bad way to go. They could, instead, add a broader mix of titles for higher prices. That would earn them more money without pissing off their existing customers. It's really sad if they are thinking that the lack of commercial fr

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