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Earth Science

World's Population Is Projected To Nearly Stop Growing By the End of the Century (usatoday.com) 263

schwit1 writes: The world's population is projected to nearly stop growing by the end of the century due in large part to falling global fertility rates, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of new data from the United Nations. By 2100, the world's population is projected to reach approximately 10.9 billion, with annual growth of less than 0.1% -- a steep decline from current levels. Between 1950 and today, the world's population grew between 1% and 2% each year, with the number of people rising from 2.5 billion to more than 7.7 billion. The report also found the world's population is getting older, with people over the age of 65 being the fastest-growing age group. "One in four people living in Europe and Northern America could be 65 years or older by 2050," reports USA Today. "And the number of people age 80 or over is projected to triple globally, from 143 million in 2019 to 426 million in 2050."

As for the global fertility rate, it fell from 3.2 births per woman in 1990 to 2.5 in 2019 and is projected to decline even further to 2.2 in 2050.
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World's Population Is Projected To Nearly Stop Growing By the End of the Century

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  • Taxes... (Score:2, Insightful)

    It's going to suck for our great-grandkids having to pay the taxes to keep all those old people happy in their retirement.

    • Re:Taxes... (Score:5, Interesting)

      by alvinrod ( 889928 ) on Wednesday June 19, 2019 @09:21AM (#58787582)
      Automation will have improved significantly by that time, which goes a long way towards reducing the cost it takes to care for or support a person. The modern service economy is also opening up a lot of jobs that older people are able to continue working in well past the usual retirement age because as long as a person has a sharp mind, physical frailty is no real concern.

      The world will be fine, but we'll have found something else to be overly concerned about by then.
      • Well, that's one of the unfortunate things about the increasing lifespan, mental acuity has not been extending proportionally. People are living longer, but their memories are failing at the same time they always did, often by the late 60s. Then they've got another 20 years to live with Alzheimer's or just non-specific memory loss.

        More progress has been made in increasing lifespan, than in extending true health. "Everything's fine, no need for concern" is how we end up housing rows and rows of vegetables
        • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

          by Anonymous Coward

          More progress has been made in increasing lifespan, than in extending true health.

          We actually do know how to (within limits, naturally) extend the true healthy time.

          Thrice weekly exercise which includes intense cardiovascular workouts. Over your whole lifespan.

          People who do that tend to be about as healthy as those 20 years their juniors. 60's with the health of 40's. 70's with the health of 50's. It's on average, so of course you'll have exceptions both ways, but it improves your odds against almost every major cause of late age mental and physical degeneration. Especially helps yo

          • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

            by Anonymous Coward

            That is a paltry gain.

            I am interested in multiple centuries of healthy time. Even that falls short of the true goal of endless healthy time.

            There is no cure for murder of course, but we can and should cure aging and death by natural causes.

          • You hit the nail on the head. I'd ad a healthy diet and stretch workouts to that list, but by and large you're right.

        • Re:Taxes... (Score:4, Interesting)

          by Dunbal ( 464142 ) * on Wednesday June 19, 2019 @12:25PM (#58788700)
          This "non specific memory loss", dementia unrelated to Alzheimer's - is usually caused by a lifetime of high blood pressure and many microscopic infarctions in the brain. If you control your blood pressure early and keep it under control for your life, you remove a major cause of "senile dementia".
        • I guess there will be lots of jobs cleaning bedpans, though. Not much mental sharpness needed for that, and it doesn't easily lend itself to automation.

          Smells like opportunity. Anybody want to invent the toilet bed?

      • by lgw ( 121541 )

        Automation will have improved significantly by that time, which goes a long way towards reducing the cost it takes to care for or support a person.

        In general, sure. But elder care will be the last holdout of human labor. And it's already a huge sector, over 10% if the US GDP and growing IIRC. In places like Japan that aren't back-filling with immigrants, they could end up with over a third of the working population providing elder care.

        The modern service economy is also opening up a lot of jobs that older people are able to continue working in well past the usual retirement age because as long as a person has a sharp mind, physical frailty is no real concern.

        But people shouldn't have to. The more automation provides, the earlier we should be able to retire.

      • by Dunbal ( 464142 ) *
        Robots don't earn a wage, consequently they do not pay income tax. Having a robot workforce reduces the amount of taxes collected by the government.
      • by rsilvergun ( 571051 ) on Wednesday June 19, 2019 @01:21PM (#58788992)
        Automation eliminates jobs. New technologies can create new jobs and get ahead of automation, but that usually takes longer to happen then it takes for Automation to destroy jobs.

        People like to forget this but there was decades of poverty, wars and social strife after the Industrial Revolution before things like large scale shipping, advancements in farm tech (like using oil byproducts to replenish land), telecommunications and other technological advances meant there was enough work for everyone to do. Luddite was a movement in response to job losses before it was an insult.

        We can't count on service sector jobs to save us because that requires a base of productive workers who can afford services.

        And we can't count on the rich saving us because they need us to buy their products. The rich are just taking ownership of everything. The King didn't need Peasants to buy his products. He already owned everything there was to own.

        I'm sorry, but this just isn't something that we can solve with laissez faire capitalism. The last time we had a large scale automation revolution it was solved by two world wars, a century of technological advancement and a whole mess of socialism. For my money I'd like to skip the wars this time (especially since we've got nukes) and the 100 years of misery waiting for new tech and skip to the socialism.
        • > laissez faire capitalism

          There is no such thing. Not a single country in the world except very poor.

    • by jiriw ( 444695 )

      Retirement age is already rising here due to government influence. And it will rise 8 months for every one extra year of expected average life span. When I reach the upper 60s, I probably will not be able to retire before age 68. Not due to my financial situation per-se but due to law and huge fines if I would retire earlier. On the other side, a burger flipper will be able to retire at the same age as a corporate manager due to a government-designed ('50s), worker paid 'universal' pension.
      'socialist'* gove

    • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

      by Rande ( 255599 )

      Or just change the rules on euthanasia so that people can choose to check out of this life a little earlier rather than be force to live in agony as long as medical science (and health insurance?) can make possible.

      • Re:Taxes... (Score:5, Insightful)

        by LostMyAccount ( 5587552 ) on Wednesday June 19, 2019 @12:00PM (#58788524)

        Will the local welding gas place ask any questions when I come in looking for a 5 lb tank of nitrogen, a low-pressure regulator valve and a length of hose?

        • Will the local welding gas place ask any questions when I come in looking for a 5 lb tank of nitrogen, a low-pressure regulator valve and a length of hose?

          No. They are a supplier of a gas and you're literally ordering the common kit that comes with buying such a gas.

    • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

      It's getting worse too, as the younger generations are less able to save for retirement so will need even more support.

    • End of population growth means end of consumption growth...
      Add to that the very thing you mention - increased necessity of taking care of population which can't produce income but which does have accumulated economic, political and social power... and you have a necessity of socializing a whole bunch of things long before we hit the "zero growth" year.

      Combine that increase in social programs with cap on the consumption and increased automation taking over everything but the human-generated entertainment (in

    • by Dunbal ( 464142 ) *
      Old people is a temporary problem. If you have no trouble printing money for weapons or foreign aid, you have no problem printing money to pay the miniscule government pensions.
    • It's going to suck for our great-grandkids having to pay the taxes to keep all those old people happy in their retirement.

      But much less than it would have sucked if the flat-earth lobby's predictions of population catastrophe had come to pass.

    • I think taxes will be the least of their concerns. Finding enough food to eat will be. However, since there will be a plentiful supply of seniors, they can help make Soylent Green [youtube.com], though that would be a bit of a misnomer, so it should be called Soylent Grey.

      Dad: "Hey, kids! Grandpa is joining us for dinner!"
      Kids: "Yeah!"
    • They'll be more likely to inherit money as a whole, and the reduced demand for housing will make their lives easier. Also, plenty of estate sale items, classic cars, and other durable goods left behind at bargain prices.

  • Actually, I have seen multiple articles from 2013 forward saying that the population will implode. Meaning that it will start to shrink. Could not find any articles that are recent.
    • Well, I guess this is a good thing then....

      All the woes about overpopulation, and running out of resources can be addressed by these findings if they prove to be true.

      Nature finds a way....

  • I've seen a TED talk where the dude projected exactly that... 11 Billion.

    • Re:Interesting.... (Score:4, Insightful)

      by pgmrdlm ( 1642279 ) on Wednesday June 19, 2019 @09:09AM (#58787528) Journal
      I have seen those articles also. So, either population explodes or it implodes. I don't think anyone has the faintest idea.
      • Re:Interesting.... (Score:5, Informative)

        by ceoyoyo ( 59147 ) on Wednesday June 19, 2019 @11:50AM (#58788452)

        The UN, along with pretty much all demographers, have been projecting for a long time that the population will level off around 10 or 11 billion. Here's the 2011 forecast:

        https://www.un.org/en/developm... [un.org]

        Not sure why this is news. The UN gives projections for several scenarios every year. They haven't really changed much.

        Wish I could get media coverage and funding by "analyzing" a graph though, like Pew Research apparently did.

        • The UN has enjoyed considerable success in its predictions concerning population, but it relies on antiquated assumptions that require some changes given the trends towards non-replacement population growth in many parts of the world.

          Take a look at Empty Planet, by Darrel Bricker and John Ibbison. They make the case that we could be looking at peak population by as early as 2050.

          Granted, based on current restraints and problems, we should reduce the population down to around 1 to 2 billion people. The
          • by ceoyoyo ( 59147 )

            The UN's low fertility model has put peak population right around 2050 for quite a while (the 2011 report I linked to has it). Their projections include the extreme but possible scenario you mentioned.

            If you're talking about the same Gott, his argument is essentially applying sampling theory the wrong way around, and further basing the conclusion on a single sample. Not such a great idea. Even then, he gets more like 10,000 more years of humanity given population stability at 10 billion, so probably slightl

  • Hans Rosling, 2010 (Score:5, Informative)

    by bill_mcgonigle ( 4333 ) * on Wednesday June 19, 2019 @09:07AM (#58787518) Homepage Journal
    • Sure, today I have no mod points. That's what I wanted to post.

      Mod up please.

    • Nice try... [wikipedia.org]

      Christian Berggren, a Swedish professor of industrial management, finds that Factfulness, despite substantial merits, “presents a highly biased sample of statistics as the true perspective on global development, avoids analysis of negative trends, and refrains from discussing difficult issues”. He identifies three main problems in Rosling’s argument. First, selected and rose-tinted statistics (e.g. “Factfulness includes many graphs of 'bad things in decline' and 'good things on the rise' but not a single graph of 'bad things on the rise'.”) Second, “No discussion of the ecological consequences of the current progress”. Third, misleading statistics on world population growth, plus confused or questionable suggestions that “continued population growth is inevitable and unproblematic”.

      • by ceoyoyo ( 59147 )

        Industrial management hey?

        Maybe we read different books. Rosling mentions environmental issues many times in Factfulness. I'm not sure what he means by the last bit about continued population growth being inevitable and unproblematic. Rosling states (correctly) that the population will continue to grow for a bit longer, then level off. That's pretty inevitable unless you start mass killings.

        • I think there is a segment of humanity that needs guys like Rosling around to make them feel ok about overpopulation.
          Sort of "overpopulation apologists" I call them.

          I would imagine that most people in the category use a Biblical rationalization that it's not only ok to rape and pillage nature for mans benefit, but sort of "Manifest Destiny" to do so. Go forth and procreate until nothing is left.

          No, if anything is going to cull the herd, so to speak, it will be a pandemic, which the CDC and the WHO
      • You are replying in a story that provides fresh data that almost exactly matches the population number Hans Rosling arrived at nearly a decade ago.

        So it's obvious that Rosling was right way back then, and the counter argument at your link and summary was all wrong.

        Did you bring it up just so we could laugh at it? Mission Succeeded!

        • You are replying in a story that provides fresh data that almost exactly matches the population number Hans Rosling arrived at nearly a decade ago.

          I pasted in part of a review of his book, from his Wikipedia article. I was pointing out how people like Rosling attempt(weakly) to "paper over" the environmental disasters caused by overpopulation. I could care less about projected numbers. I know there are too many people, right now. Not in 2050, not in 2080. Now.

          So it's obvious you have drank his kool aid and try to defend overpopulation. Go right ahead, that is your right. But you're wrong. I remember the comment you made a while back about w

  • Read this instead (Score:3, Informative)

    by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday June 19, 2019 @09:08AM (#58787524)

    Better article. Notice the population projection for certain areas. It will be an interesting century to say the least.

    The U.N. Says World Population May Top Out at 10.9 Billion Before 2100. Other Demographers Say It'll Be Much Lower [reason.com]

    • Better article. Notice the population projection for certain areas. It will be an interesting century to say the least.

      The U.N. Says World Population May Top Out at 10.9 Billion Before 2100. Other Demographers Say It'll Be Much Lower [reason.com]

      Africa on course to house half the world's population by some predictions. 100 years from now China might be eyeing Nigeria suspiciously, worried that Nigeria might be on course to take over the mantle of most powerful nation status.

  • Average (Score:3, Interesting)

    by religionofpeas ( 4511805 ) on Wednesday June 19, 2019 @09:14AM (#58787546)

    It's a mistake to look at average birth rate. Genes that favor higher number of children will be more successful. Genes that favor low number of children will die out. That needs to be taken into account.

    • You might have noticed that we replaced natural selection with civilization a long while ago.

      • You might have noticed that we replaced natural selection with civilization a long while ago.

        No, we didn't. It's just that now, natural selection favors traits that are beneficial in civilization rather than ones that are beneficial in nature.

        • Ha, I wish. Higher educated people have less children (for good reason).
          • Selection is still going on; it never stops. It's just that it doesn't necessarily happen for traits you might consider desirable. Just because natural selection is happening doesn't mean that the species is becoming more intelligent or even stronger. It will be becoming better suited to propagate itself, whatever that takes. It is perfectly possible that it will become less intelligent because of evolutionary pressures.

      • That's like saying you replaced the wheel with a car.
        • It's more replacing natural selection with selective breeding.

          • There's no selective breeding going on. The transition from hunter gatherer to agrarian and ultimately urban living obviously changes the environmental pressures, but it's still just natural selection. We may come to the point where we're editing the genome for large portions of the population, and then we can talk about active selection of genotypes, but for now, it's just that the environment humans are living in is significantly different than the one we evolved in over the last few million years.

            But rea

          • by gnick ( 1211984 )

            If you're being assigned a mate to optimize your offspring, that's selective breeding. If you're picking your own mate based on attributes you find attractive, that's natural selection.

    • It's a mistake to look at average birth rate. Genes that favor higher number of children will be more successful. Genes that favor low number of children will die out. That needs to be taken into account.

      Women don't give birth to puppies. They tend to give birth to babies, and generally one at a time. Women that give birth to twins might be more reluctant to have a second pregnancy. Society is a bigger driver of how many children one has than genetics.

      • Yeah, but that doesen't fit with "the undesirables are outbreeding the Ubermensch" narrative. That will make it harder for bottom-of-the-barrel politicians to win elections.
    • Re:Average (Score:5, Informative)

      by AmiMoJo ( 196126 ) on Wednesday June 19, 2019 @11:36AM (#58788354) Homepage Journal

      That's just the Great Replacement conspiracy theory.

      There is no genetic advantage to having big families. There is an advantage to having access to modern medicine, adequate food, education and so forth, which benefits smaller families that concentrate resources on fewer children.

      Take Bangladesh as an example. Current fertility rate is around 2.5, so getting fairly close to the steady state value of 2.2. Back in the early 60s it was around 9. That's the average, 9 children per woman who reaches puberty.

      If there were any genetic component at all, Bangladesh would not have been able to lower the rate do dramatically and Bangladeshi people would be being replaced with some other group, neither of which is happening.

      • Having large number of chikdren reaching reproductive is manifestation of genetic advantage. It's the cultural deficiency that leads to genetic disadvantage in _other_ cultures that do not roll out their positive competition qualities to later generations.

        Number one cultural disadvantage is female economic liberation and their liberty at using contraceptives.

        You either stop lamenting about the loss of genetic material of "great white civilization" or you drop the liberties

        • You have an instinct for having resources to live well. You have an instinct for looking after children. You have an instinct for sex, which reduces in bad times.

          You do not have an instinct for having large families because the sex instinct is traditionally enough. We changed the rules on natural selection by allowing sex without babies.

          All of your instincts are tuned for one purpose and one purpose only. And that is to maximize the number of grandchildren that you have. You exist today because your al

    • our understanding of Natural Selection doesn't fully take into account human civilization. It can't. Human intelligence is less than 10,000 years old. We're the first species that is capable of transforming it's entire environment to better suit it. Simple population genetics isn't going to apply. Yes, selection pressures still exist, but we're in a scenario where people most able have the most kids don't.

      This is the trouble with science, it's very often counter intuitive. It's very likely that a small
  • makes a lot of sense and is no surprise. Logistic growth is expected in an environment with limited resources. Predictions have been very poor however. Not predicted were new technologies which allow to feed more. Also hard to predict are the effect of climate change, the emergence of diseases like "topical race 4", which has threatened bananas. And then there is the effect of war. We still stockpile insane amount of weapons if used could smash any population growth predictions. There were academics who cl
  • Demographic change (Score:5, Informative)

    by 140Mandak262Jamuna ( 970587 ) on Wednesday June 19, 2019 @09:35AM (#58787682) Journal
    The fertility rate is falling for all the groups. But some groups have fallen below even the replacement levels. And others have not.

    Often the educated and affluent groups, developed countries are at or below replacement level rate of 2.1 per woman. (0.1 to account for infertile and childhood mortality among women). Even USA will be below replacement level without immigration.

    But the groups that still growing are the poor and the uneducated. In India Hindus are at nearly replacement level, 2.13 and other religions Christianity, Sikh, Buddhism, are below replacement levels. Muslims are at 2.61, big drop from 3.4 a decade earlier, but still the highest now. Citation [indiatimes.com] World wide Muslims have the highest fertility rate, 3.1, followed by Christians at 2.7, Hindus at 2.4, below the world average of 2.5. Citation [pewforum.org] Given the current laws of wealth inheritance, the great wealth of currently affluent demographics will be shared by fewer and fewer of the descendants, making them even more affluent.

    • by azcoyote ( 1101073 ) on Wednesday June 19, 2019 @10:07AM (#58787860)
      Don't worry, I'll always do my part to make sure we Catholic Mexicans make up for the fertility loss of other groups.
    • by shanen ( 462549 )

      Rather informative comment, but not so moderated. Excuse me, but I can't help, being in a permanent state of lacking mod points. Whatever. Right now the dominant mod (and Slashdot only reveals dominance by default) is funny, and I'm not seeing the joke anywhere.

      On the other hand, I suspect your handle involves a joke of some sort...

  • ...fuck off Paul Ehrlich and Malthus.

  • All of this is based on the assumption that fertility rates will not change.

    This is a WAG.

    • no, fertility rates are changing and that change is factored in. even the summary mentions that.

      prosperity lowers birth rate, that's a fact.

    • It's been an observation of demographic trends for a long time that the wealthier overall a population is, the fewer children they have. This could even be seen in Early Modern England, as the newly formed proto-middle class (a lot of them Non-conformists) tended to have a lot less children overall than their poorer agrarian neighbors. Even four or five hundred years ago, there were ways to control conception, whether by abstinence or by other means that reduced fertility.

      The general view is that between wi

  • by Paxtez ( 948813 ) on Wednesday June 19, 2019 @12:32PM (#58788736)

    Bullshit. You can't make meaningful predictions about 100+ different cultures more than 80 years out.

    War, advancements in many different fields, policy changes, natural events, can all drastic effect population growths or total population.

    What are they smoking?

  • There is a book called Empty Planet: The Shock of Global Planet Decline [penguinrandomhouse.com], by Darrel Bricker and John Ibbitson. One is a journalist, the other is a political scientist.

    What they found is very interesting. Even India's birth rate is slowing down.

    See the reviews and interviews at: TVO [youtube.com], Wired [wired.com], and CBC [www.cbc.ca]

  • In 30 generations the mass of the planet will consist entirely of Duggars, assuming 100kg per Duggar and their current procreation rate.
  • People used to say that every time your heart beats, three babies are born. It follows then that every time your heart beats, at least three people are having sex. There are a hell of a lot of people getting it on all the time. Of course, one can argue that there are certain times of the day when people are more likely to have sex e.g. at night. So that means that there's a wave of sex circling the globe every single day.

BLISS is ignorance.

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