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Elon Musk Says Tesla's Ramping Up Solar Roof Production (bloomberg.com) 134

Elon Musk is looking to ramp up Tesla's solar roof-tile business even as the company's panel installations shrink. From a report: Tesla is rapidly "spooling up production" and hopes to manufacture about 1,000 solar roofs a week by the end of the year, Musk said in a tweet Monday evening. That would represent a massive increase for the company, which at one point in 2018 was making enough shingles to cover three to five homes a week, two former employees said.
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Elon Musk Says Tesla's Ramping Up Solar Roof Production

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  • by goombah99 ( 560566 ) on Tuesday July 30, 2019 @11:15AM (#59012344)

    I'd actually want this not for the solar but for the beautiful roof and durability comapred to other roofs.

    So for me It's a shame they are so expensive. The claim is that they amortize out over time with utility bills and maybe last longer than a regular roof. But that means if you sell your house your house price is higher and you have to find buyers willing to pay more on the front end to get the amortization on the back end.

    If the company were to take the risk on themselves. For example pricing it as a regular roof but taking all the power themselves for the first 20 years. That would make this a no-brainer. A roof better than any other for the same cost?

    I especially like the resistance to hail. My roof has been destroyed twice by hail. this seems to be the only material that could stand up to hail.

    • So for me It's a shame they are so expensive.

      Their cost is roughly on par with the cost of a stone tile roof. They are expensive compared with a asphalt shingle roof but they appear competitive with the high end sorts of tiles you might see on more expensive homes.

      The claim is that they amortize out over time with utility bills and maybe last longer than a regular roof.

      The entire point of any solar installation is that it offsets the cost by reduced utility costs. The only question is whether traditional roof + utility costs >= tesla roof costs. Any new roof is going to be a big up front expense whether solar or not. If the tesla roof costs close to

      • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

        by Anonymous Coward

        " They are expensive compared with a asphalt shingle roof "

        In other civilized countries, asphalt shingle roofs are for sheds, not houses.

      • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

        The only question is whether traditional roof + utility costs >= tesla roof costs

        Here is an actual quote they gave to a customer: https://electrek.co/2019/06/14... [electrek.co]

        A high end roof with traditional tiles would cost $37k, the Tesla solar roof would be $64.5k and they recommended an additional $10k battery to make good use of the available power.

        So an additional $37k over a traditional roof. And note they are not expecting any profit over a 30 year lifespan, in fact the owner would be about $10k down. Seems a little oddly sized TBH.

        That $37k has to come from somewhere. Can't mortgage it bec

        • Here is an actual quote they gave to a customer

          That is one data point. It is unclear if it is representative of the prices in general. There almost certainly are going to be roofs where Tesla's offerings don't make economic sense. Your example doesn't provide enough data to draw wide conclusions. Furthermore early versions of ANY product are likely to be quite expensive since they haven't gotten the economies of scale and engineering dialed down yet.

          Note I'm not arguing for or against the economics of Tesla's roof. I'm just not drawing conclusions

          • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

            A mortgage is a loan secured against the property. As such, you can't borrow more than the property is worth, because if you defaulted then the asset it is secured against would not cover the loan.

            Maybe it's different in the US, but in the UK the lender will appoint someone to value the property. They will look at what its market value is, not how much it cost to build.

            • A mortgage is a loan secured against the property. As such, you can't borrow more than the property is worth, because if you defaulted then the asset it is secured against would not cover the loan.

              You absolutely can take out mortgages that are for more money than the likely market value of a piece of real estate. Happens all the time. Heck a lot of the reasons for the recession in 2008 were for precisely this reason. Banks made loans on houses for which the likely value of the underlying asset wasn't equal to or greater than the loan or rapidly became so. The banks then sold the loan to another company so they really don't incur much risk by doing this. Furthermore while the real estate does pro

              • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

                > Banks made loans on houses for which the likely value of the underlying asset wasn't equal to or greater than the loan or rapidly became so

                Yeah, we don't do that any more because it caused a massive global financial crash last time.

                > If you've done any valuation at all you'll find that there is no objectively correct answer to what something is worth

                True, but the point is that here the banks won't lend more than they think the property is likely to fetch on the market. Sometimes they get it wrong an

      • by t14m4t ( 205907 )

        For example pricing it as a regular roof but taking all the power themselves for the first 20 years.

        Why would anybody go for that? I get a solar roof but don't get any of the solar?

        This is what I have. I went from a $250 bill to the power company (average per month), to a $100 bill to the solar company (average per month), for no financial investment on my part.

        I give the solar company my roof to use to install their "power plant." They then charge me 10 cents per kWh generated. This is far better than the 25 cents per kWh I pay the utility company. So although I don't "own" the panels, at the same time it was free installation and maintenance and I have lower bills, and I still h

    • They are nice, but I don't think I can afford the current luxury of them. My roof is 30 years old, and within the next few years, I would probably be getting it replaced. While I love the idea of getting solar roof, it may be still better to replace the shingles, and then just put on standard panels. As my house faces the road to the north, most of the panels would be on the south side of my house.

      • by atrex ( 4811433 )
        Yeah, I've been eyeballing the solar roof myself, but adding a second $60K mortgage on top of my existing mortgage is really not something I want to think about.
        And if I had to move, trying to sell the place with that extra cost on top would be a nightmare.
    • If you are not looking into Solar collection, you may look into Metal roofing.

      • Or as my parents did, metal roofing with traditional solar panels on top. That roof is going to last for a good 50+ years, and will be producing power the whole time.

        • hail kills metal roofs too. and when you replace them you now have the problem of paying to remove and replace the now obsolete but still working solar panels. in the meantime it looks like crap. And worst case the hail takes out the solar panels too.

          these tesla roofs are not more expensive than solar + metal, and they look goos and should last longer.

          So it's a no brainer really which you should install if you are going to go solar. It's just that adding 60K to the house's cost with a very slow payback

          • Standing seam roofs are pretty much hail-proof; that is the only 50-year metal roof I am aware of. But, if you do a 50-year roof, it usually makes sense to have a secondary water barrier (taped plywood at a minimum) “just in case”.

    • But that means if you sell your house your house price is higher and you have to find buyers willing to pay more on the front end to get the amortization on the back end.

      One day Americans may pay actual money for electricity and you'll realise that buyers happily pay this. I actually put solar panels on my roof just before selling my house in Australia as people actively seek out this kind of feature.

  • Arrrgh! The timing...
    3 days ago the first of the new regular roof tiles were delivered to be installed. We waited 2 (3 now?) years for him to get his act together, typical it was the week after we started with the regular roof replacement.
    Hopefully in 25 years when it's time to replace them again, they're actually available.
  • AM vs. FM (Score:2, Insightful)

    by blindseer ( 891256 )

    I'd like to thank Hank Green for wording this problem so well, though he might not agree with how I've applied it. This is AM versus FM. This isn't about radios but about energy technology. What does AM stand for in this context? Actual machines. And FM? Well, that depends on the level of politeness you want to portray. We can call this "future machines", "fantasy machines", or "fucking magic". That last one is how Hank Green defined it.

    Elon Musk wants to produce enough solar tiles to cover 1000 roo

    • by SuperKendall ( 25149 ) on Tuesday July 30, 2019 @12:24PM (#59012796)

      I also agree, no way can all roofs or energy use be converted to solar in a meaningful timeframe.

      However the reality is that building new nuclear power units will be a tough sell in some areas, so the ability to do that will be limited also.

      I think trying to bring individual solar power to as many regions as possible makes a ton of sense. It can reduce the need for as many nuclear plants, making it more likely we could supply all power needs with a mix of nuclear and solar... the only two forms of energy production that make sense to me long term.

      There is another side benefit of that, a very distributed power grid in the event of an attack on infrastructure. I would say in fact that it would not be a bad national priority to shoot for one solar powered house per block in urban areas, so that in an emergency there would be some place that people could get power from, even limited amount can charge communication devices and keep some refrigeration going for food.

      You could store backup electronics for systems in regional warehouses shielded against EMP, for rapid repairs to solar production in a region...

      Ideally someday everyone would be comfortable with small nuclear batteries powering blocks at a time. But we are a long ways from there yet, lets just get people OK with the idea of building new nuclear plants period...

      • by boskone ( 234014 )

        I agree. I think the parent post is sobering, in that we can't install 28 million solar roofs per year, and we'd run out of roofs after 5-6 years anyway. However, I think as part of the solution, building out residential, commercial and institutional solar is a great way to help support the grid and create more renewable energy. Also, industrial solar could certainly be doing more (large installations in the desert) along with nuclear (ideally reprocessing spent fuel to also reduce our waste issue at the

    • by ljw1004 ( 764174 )

      How are we going to solve this problem? Actual machines? Or, fucking magic?

      Here's a different meaning for AM and FM -- "Actual Market" and "Fantasy Market".

      The free market has currently evaluated that nuclear power stations aren't economical to build -- (1) huge up-front costs, (2) not enough certainty that the financial return over 30+ years will be enough to pay off those up-front costs, (3) currently the cost of decommissioning is wildly unknown.

      The free market has currently evaluated that wind, solar and hydro are economical to build.

      How are we going to change this? how are we

      • Let's talk about a fantasy market.

        https://wattsupwiththat.com/20... [wattsupwiththat.com]

        The PTC subsidy has been in effect now for 27 years. Congress has adjusted the PTC many times through the years but today the subsidy is about $.02/kWhr. So, the power company gets money back in the form of a subsidy for roughly 67% of what they produce â" i.e., the company gets money back to the tune of $.02/kWhr after it sells the electricity for $.03/kWhr. If the company sells $3 million of electricity they get the $3 million plus a PTC subsidy of $2 million. That is a huge subsidy! In fact, I think it is the biggest subsidy ever given for anything.

        T. Boone Pickens and Warren Buffett both have huge investments in these things and both have openly said that wind farms would not be economic without the PTC.

        This production tax credit is a fantasy market. End that subsidy and the fantasy market for wind power goes away.

        I've heard from people in the nuclear power industry and they are saying that these wind production tax credits are making it unprofitable to stay in business. This is making utilities and state politicians very nervous. If a nuclear power plant shuts down while it is still safe to operate, and nearly all of them are even at 4

        • The wind subsidy is less of an issue today as it was 5-10 years ago. With increasing turbine sizes (>5MW) wind can compete on its own.

          I am torn on nuclear; conceptually I want it (specifically small modular reactors), but you are going to need to retire 40-year old reactors in the next decade or two.

          Despite huge subsidies, nobody has been successful in the US at building a new nuclear power plant on schedule and on budget. What is going to change that in the next 5-10 years?

          • The wind subsidy is less of an issue today as it was 5-10 years ago. With increasing turbine sizes (>5MW) wind can compete on its own.

            If wind can compete on its own, and I agree that it can, then let it. As it is now these wind energy projects get half of their profit, or maybe all of it, from tax credits. We are seeing these projects get built in the craziest of places that would not be profitable without this tax credit. End the subsidy and we will see wind still grow, just in places that make a profit on their own.

            I am torn on nuclear; conceptually I want it (specifically small modular reactors), but you are going to need to retire 40-year old reactors in the next decade or two.

            What happens when these reactors need to be retired for safety reasons and there are no new nuclear power to replace it?

            • by amorsen ( 7485 )

              Get a half dozen companies building a dozen reactors. (It's already common to build reactors in pairs so this would not be unusual.) The five that keep the closest to budget and schedule get to build the next contracts to build, the odd one out has a "time out" to think about why they failed.

              In other words, let the government decide who wins or loses. What could possibly go wrong... Unless you were suggesting that you will be doing this with your own money, but then why are you here talking about it and not out there doing it?

              enough for the federal government to fund a lot of this and "jump start" this industry.

              Ah no, didn't think so.

              • In other words, let the government decide who wins or loses. What could possibly go wrong...

                So, the federal government can shovel money into industries like electric cars, windmills, and solar power projects but not nuclear power to reduce national CO2 emissions? That is rather hypocritical of you, unless you are calling for the government to stop declaring wind power the winner with its large subsidies.

                Unless you were suggesting that you will be doing this with your own money, but then why are you here talking about it and not out there doing it?

                If I had the money it doesn't do any good unless there is a government willing to issue construction and operation permits. I'm talking about it here because it's a place where such matters are b

            • There are about 500 people in the US that have the expertise to build nuclear reactors from a project management, QA, and process perspective. I would hazard a guess that only 20% of them are not retired. You need about 100 of these people per plant for your most optimistic 4-year construction duration (up thread) plus 3 years of design and permitting. To complete 20 per year you need to go from 100 people to 14,000 with the skill set. You might be able to cut it in half by doing 3-4 reactors per plant of

              • You can't solve the problem by throwing the wrong resources at it.

                You can't solve the problem by ignoring it either.

                As I pointed out before, the nation is already reliant on nuclear power for 20% of its electricity and we have nothing that can replace it but natural gas or more nuclear power. We can keep doing the same thing we are now, which is essentially nothing, or we can start on the path of replacing old nuclear power with new nuclear power. We don't need to build 30 nuclear power plants next year, but it would be a good start if we saw one get started next year.

            • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

              If wind can compete on its own, and I agree that it can, then let it.

              It's been pointed out to you that European offshore wind projects are now being build subsidy free, but you continue to ignore that fact. Or maybe you are being told to ignore that fact and keep spreading your nonsense.

              If nuclear can compete on its own, it should. But it can't. It always has, and always will be dependent on heavy subsidies. I don't want to pay for that any more. There are cheaper, cleaner options.

              You lost the economic argument. You lost the environmental argument. The base load argument is

        • by amorsen ( 7485 )

          This production tax credit is a fantasy market. End that subsidy and the fantasy market for wind power goes away.

          Wind turbines are being installed in Denmark without subsidy. Not many, the vast majority of good spots are taken now, but that will soon change again when offshore wind gets down to onshore prices.

        • by ljw1004 ( 764174 )

          The PTC subsidy has been in effect now for 27 years. Congress has adjusted the PTC many times through the years but today the subsidy is about $.02/kWhr.

          I didn't believe your numbers so I looked for independent collaboration. I got numbers for 2016 total government subsidies of all kinds https://www.eia.gov/analysis/r... [eia.gov] and for the 2018 US energy production mix https://www.eia.gov/energyexpl... [eia.gov] both from the US Department of Energy, a branch called the "US Energy Information Administration".

          • Biomass: $1.7 subsidy per million BTU generated
          • Natural gas, crude oil, coal, nuclear, wind+solar+geothermal: $1 subsidy per million BTU generated
          • Hydro: $0.7 subsidy per
    • Can we build 32 new gigawatt nuclear power plants per year? Yes, those are actual machines.

      Lol, so you're in the FM camp as well, but you just can't admit it to yourself.

      We can't do that. In a Fucking Magical world we could do that, but not here in the real one. Nobody is set up to crank out the guts of nuclear reactors on that scale, (containment vessels, cooling systems, electrical systems, monitoring equipment, etc.) nobody has the construction experience to build them on that scale, (we'd need at least 32 experienced nuclear architecture groups and related construction groups) and NIMBY says

      • Re:AM vs. FM (Score:4, Informative)

        by blindseer ( 891256 ) <blindseer@noSPAm.earthlink.net> on Tuesday July 30, 2019 @01:28PM (#59013196)

        FFS, what's the fastest anyone has EVER built a nuclear power plant? A decade? Decade and a half?

        Let's look at some nuclear power plants near me.

        Braidwood, 13 years.
        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]

        Byron, 10 years.
        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]

        Clinton, 12 years.
        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]

        Donald C. Cook, 6 years.
        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]

        Duane Arnold, 5 years.
        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]

        Davis Besse, 8 years.
        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]

        Dresden, 4 years.
        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]

        And you think we can build 32 in one year?

        World wide? Yes, absolutely. In the USA? Unlikely, but possible.

        Why you have such a hard-on for nuclear power, I'll never understand. But it's clear that it's affected your brain and is producing something like syphilitic fever dreams.

        Why nuclear power? I thought I was quite clear, because nuclear power plants are actual machines. They exist in the here and now. We don't need any magic to build them, we only need to grant ourselves permission. This doesn't mean this is the only solution we should try but since they exist in the here and now there is no reason to not include this in the solution. We should also be building windmills, solar collectors, and hydroelectric dams where they can prove to be profitable. Nuclear power can be profitable but, again, we need only give ourselves permission to make that possible. No magic required.

        • ... we need only give ourselves permission to make that possible.

          and

          No magic required.

          You contradict yourself kind sir. ;)

          Getting people to agree on what is for dinner is magic. Getting people to agree on nuclear is deep magic.

    • We have access to the same information that you do, Einstein--we've just reached a different conclusion.

      Once one fully considers the end-to-end cost of Nuclear power, including the risk of a catastrophic failure, then it's more expensive than the alternatives (solar/wind+batteries, hydro, maybe with some coal or natural gas as backups).

      You're talking about building 32 new Nuke plants a year at what? $5-10B a pop and each one taking 8 years to come online--and then having to staff hundreds of new nuclea
  • Build things! (Score:2, Informative)

    by blindseer ( 891256 )

    Act now! We have only 14 months!
    https://www.wnd.com/2019/07/ea... [wnd.com]

    These global warming warnings are getting louder and more often but no one seems to be all that concerned about building things. Elon Musk is building things so I'm not including him. This threat of global warming is an engineering problem. Let's get some people together and engineer a solution. We don't need politicians in this, they seem to only throw a wrench in the works. What we need are people to...

    BUILD THINGS!

    Since the politician

  • After powering homes and businesses perhaps some way could be found too, in addition, fight global warming. Perhaps pumps could bring deep, cold water to the ocean's surface and maybe even lessen the number or strength of hurricanes we experience. With all that clean new energy surely we can find new ways to help the environment.
  • Look at their recent 10Q and tell me where the capex is for this? Where are the jobs posted to get this massive increase in production? We'll see if the SEC does anything about this statement, which I'm assuming was not approved by Musk's twitter sitter before it went out.

    • You have to understand Musk Time. This "by end of the year" is in musk time, and so in our time it's probably end of next year or later!

Keep up the good work! But please don't ask me to help.

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