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Trump Says Keeping Covid-19 Deaths To 100,000 in the US Would Be a 'Very Good Job' (theguardian.com) 576

Donald Trump has extended America's national shutdown for a month, bowing to public health experts, and scientific reality, and warning that the worst of the coronavirus pandemic is yet to come. From a report: Speaking in the White House Rose Garden, the US president claimed that, if his administration keeps the death toll to 100,000, it will have done "a very good job" -- a startling shift from his optimistic predictions of a few days ago when he said he hoped to restart the economy by Easter. Trump also undermined his plea for unity by uttering falsehoods, verbally abusing reporters and making incendiary allegations that implied health care workers were stealing masks, without providing evidence. The extended deadline marked a humiliating retreat for the president who, having squandered six precious weeks at the start of the pandemic, more recently complained that the cure is worse than the problem and floated Easter Sunday
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Trump Says Keeping Covid-19 Deaths To 100,000 in the US Would Be a 'Very Good Job'

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  • by OffTheLip ( 636691 ) on Monday March 30, 2020 @01:07PM (#59888898)
    I doubt I would have used "good job" as my salient point but it's Trump.
    • by fahrbot-bot ( 874524 ) on Monday March 30, 2020 @01:40PM (#59889102)

      I doubt I would have used "good job" as my salient point but it's Trump.

      According to him, he *never* does anything but a good job, so no matter what the actual numbers turn out to be, he'll move the goalpost to make it sound like he had the right answer all the time and saved us all. Reviewing his statements, even just on the COVIS-19 outbreak, demonstrate that clearly. Also don't forget that he'll deny saying things that make him look bad, even things he said just last week and are literally recorded on video -- he did this in the daily Coronavirus briefing just the other day when reporters.

      • by shipofgold ( 911683 ) on Monday March 30, 2020 @03:17PM (#59889590)

        The Trumpster playbook is to create as much chaos as he can (rumor, innuendo, insult, fake news, outright lies, etc.) watch where the cards land, take credit for what works and blame Obama or Hillary (or anybody else that is convenient) for what didn't work.

        For those who think he is looking out for America, I say haha your fooled. Trumpster is looking out for only one person in the entire world and everybody else (with perhaps exception of blood relatives) is ripe to be tossed under the bus when the situation requires it.

    • 100,000 deaths at this stage would be a phenomenally good job. The problem is that in the past 24 hours he's made statements and taken actions that will make that number damn near impossible. This will drag on, much longer than needed, because this government (amongst others) has dragged their feet.

      A quote I saw from a school trustee here in Canada when they shut down schools:

      In the end, it will be impossible to know if we acted too strongly or too quickly. It will, however, be tragically obvious if we did not act quickly or strongly enough.

      Guess which side we seem to be tracking towards?

    • by aqui ( 472334 ) on Monday March 30, 2020 @03:01PM (#59889518)

      Just some basic back of the envelop ball parking:

      Best case (40% get it 0.5% fatality)
      300 Million People x 40% = 120 million case

      120 Million cases x 0.5% fatality rate = 600K people dead.

      Optimistic Worst case (70% get it 1% fatality)
      300 Million x 70% getting COVID = 210 million cases

      210 Million cases x 1% fatality rate = 2.1 Million people dead.

      and that's neglecting the fact that 2% will need ventilators and likely there are not enough to go around.

      100K isn't just optimistic, it's a pipe dream and irresponsible number to be talking about as president of the US.

      Quick sources:
      up to 70% get it: ( https://duckduckgo.com/?q=70%2... [duckduckgo.com] ) ~30-70% are expert estimates.
      US Population ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org] ) ~308 Million
      COVID Fatality rates: (https://duckduckgo.com/?q=covid+19+fatality+rate&t=canonical&ia=web ) China has as high as 4% Germany as low as 0.5%

  • by Austerity Empowers ( 669817 ) on Monday March 30, 2020 @01:07PM (#59888900)

    With a 2% mortality in the US, assuming hospitals continue with their current load (hint: they won't, NY is in really big trouble), that implies he's anticipating 5M infections, up from 150K.

    This sounds more like he wants to do something reckless, and set our expectations, rather than a sober account of a best case reality. He can fuck right off.

  • by dgatwood ( 11270 ) on Monday March 30, 2020 @01:11PM (#59888908) Homepage Journal

    No, Mr. Trump, having 128 times as many deaths per capita as China is not a "very good job". It is approximately as grossly incompetent as is humanly possible.

    • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

      by Anonymous Coward
      That you are assuming China's numbers to be factual completely destroys any argument you have here and forevermore.
    • There are zero reliable data points out of China. Having friends there, their perception is that north of 500,000 are dead at least. Take that as flippantly as you want.

      • by bluegutang ( 2814641 ) on Monday March 30, 2020 @01:27PM (#59889010)

        So, anecdotes about estimates by anonymous people, not data?

        • by Mal-2 ( 675116 )

          Anecdotes about estimates by anonymous people.
          Cherry-picked data further massaged to save CCP face.

          Which one do you trust more? My suggestion is neither.

        • by JeffSh ( 71237 )

          absent of reliable data, all we have are anecdotes. there is literally no reliable data.

        • by ageoffri ( 723674 ) on Monday March 30, 2020 @01:39PM (#59889084)
          Anyone who considers what China has officially released as reliable data is delusional. Saving face is a cultural trait and you combine it with a totalitarian government, I would suspect that an order of magnitude is barely enough for their under-reporting. Of course trusting Trump is just as bad.
          • Anyone who considers what China has officially released as reliable data is delusional. Saving face is a cultural trait and you combine it with a totalitarian government, I would suspect that an order of magnitude is barely enough for their under-reporting. Of course trusting Trump is just as bad.

            Then why do the rates of infection and death in China match up with every other country? As someone else mentioned in an article, how would China be able to fake data so accurate to the rates seen in the rest of the world, before we started seeing them in the rest of the world?

        • There are only anecdotes, not data, but the anecdotes seem sufficient for me to say that the official death toll is almost certainly too low. People scraping Twitter for number of posts mentioning deaths in the family, number of burial urns being unloaded at hospitals... couple that with some of the data coming out of Spain and Italy... I don't know how far China's official numbers are off from actual, but they've got to be low.
        • by LynnwoodRooster ( 966895 ) on Monday March 30, 2020 @02:19PM (#59889296) Journal

          Newsweek at least [newsweek.com] assumes many, many more. Knowing how the CCP works (I lived there for 6 years, and still have a stepdaughter living there), the Government decrees what the end result will be - and that's it. It happens. Whether it's real or not, that's the story and that's what you hear. Deaths, economic growth, investments, etc. Most of what you read about China is heavily massaged.

          My stepdaughter works in logistics for a medical supply company in Shanghai. They've spent the last 2 weeks setting up and shipping tens of thousands of portable hospital beds to Beijing, and Beijing has gone into a lock-down itself. Why would that be, unless they're still having massive numbers of sick people show up?

          Also, isn't it curious how China is the only country to have people become "re-infected"? No other country has reported that. Perhaps rather than being cured, they were "deemed cured" to keep the official numbers nice, and sent home early before they were actually cured. Like that's never happened before. Same with movie theaters - open them all up then 3 days later close them all down again. Why?

          The CCP attitude is that a person doesn't matter; The People matter. If a few tens of thousands or a couple million die it's OK as long as it does not bring shame to the State, it's all good.

      • by DavidMZ ( 3411229 ) on Monday March 30, 2020 @01:33PM (#59889046)
        I agree the numbers from China are very dubious. Based on cremation and # of funeral urns, deaths are under-reported by ~ one order of magnitude: https://www.newsweek.com/wuhan... [newsweek.com] This being said, we can take the example of another country which did a better job than the US: South Korea.
        • Wow, I can't believe Newsweek is still around. And the reporting is relatively high quality (compared to other things now).
      • by Sebby ( 238625 )

        Having friends there, their perception is that north of 500,000 are dead at least.

        As Trump likes to ask (or rather, imply the lack thereof): Sources?

      • by ediron2 ( 246908 )

        Your estimate goes up 1 order of magnitude, roughly. So, ignoring the US also underreporting, the us rate is still 10-20x as bad as china, right?

        This is why anecdota aren't useful.

    • Consider, if you will, if COVID-19 has a 1% death rate (it's actually higher than that).

      China has a population of 1.4 billion. So if everyone in China got infected, that would mean 14 million people would be dead.

      The US has a population of 300 million. If everyone in the US got infected, that would mean 3 million people would be dead.

      So 100,000 US deaths would be a very good job.

      China is hiding their real numbers. Especially being the origin and epicenter of the virus, the real number has to
      • Last time I check itâ(TM)s pretty hard to test a billion people, as it will be for the 350m USA, let alone the ~6 of our own, which is why I never believe these figures at all.

        Itâ(TM)s like trying to assess the severity of an incident by grepping for its count in a 1MB truncated log file.

      • by DavenH ( 1065780 )

        Especially being the origin and epicenter of the virus, the real number has to be much, much higher.

        I mean, yeah if all else were equal, earlier infection is worse. But their response was 100x stronger than in the west, so no.

      • If everyone in the US got infected...

        The imperial college estimated that if we did nothing at all to mitigate this, 81% of people would be infected. Your reference point is worse than the worst-case scenario.

        You're right about China's numbers being unreliable though, so let's look at some other places. The worst-hit countries which aren't postage stamps are Italy and Spain, with 192 and 157 deaths per 1M people, respectively. Those numbers are from right now and will increase over time, but how much? Trump's claim would put American deaths

    • You mean China, who is now trying to claim that the US started this outbreak? And after a giant rise in cases deaths, suddenly had them screech to a halt right as they were kicking out reporters? Yeah, I'm not really going to trust their numbers too much...
    • It is approximately as grossly incompetent as is humanly possible.

      It's certainly incompetent but I think you are massively underestimating the possibilities of how incompetent humans can be. Literally doing nothing is estimated to result in 2.2 million US deaths so there is plenty of scope for him to be even more incompetent and given how rapidly his prediction about how bad the crisis would be have enormously escalated over the past couple of weeks it would not surprise me at all if he adds another zero to his target number of deaths at some point in the future.

    • by Greyfox ( 87712 )
      Well you have to consider the context! Sure, 100k is a lot. Sure, a lot of those are completely unnecessary and due to stupidity on the part of someone or other. But compared to the millions who are actually likely to die as part of all this, yeah, just 100k would be a pretty great job. Also consider that although the administration's response has been non-existant at best and dangerously misleading at worst, other people are being mind-bogglingly stupid as well, so you can't really blame all the president
    • by eclectro ( 227083 ) on Monday March 30, 2020 @02:38PM (#59889400)

      Trump actually is right in this case. 100k is, unfortunately, a very good number. Find a mathematical model here. [youtu.be]

      You're not fighting Trump at this point, but rather basic math. Many are saying we need a moonshot/Manhatten project effort on this virus. [vox.com] And I think we're there.

  • by mick232 ( 1610795 ) on Monday March 30, 2020 @01:12PM (#59888914)
    we have it under control. Itâ(TM)s going to be just fine. Donald Trump, Jan 22nd
  • Well, I'm glad he thinks so, because it's going to be his legacy.
  • It's a hoax (Score:4, Insightful)

    by cronostitan ( 573676 ) on Monday March 30, 2020 @01:15PM (#59888922)

    A very good job would have been not calling it a hoax, and to take it seriously from the start.
    Trump is directly responsible for the death of thousands now and hopefully will hopefully end up in chains once he is not president, anymore.

    • MASA
      Make America Smart Again
      Make America Safe Again

      • Re: (Score:2, Funny)

        by Sebby ( 238625 )

        MASA Make America Smart Again Make America Safe Again

        I thought it was 'Make America Stupid Again', which he has achieved as president.

        (Go ahead and mod me down as 'troll' or 'flamebait' - you know I'm right)

      • Mara-A-lago Aeronautics and Space Administration

    • Re: It's a hoax (Score:5, Informative)

      by kenh ( 9056 ) on Monday March 30, 2020 @01:28PM (#59889016) Homepage Journal

      Jan. 6 the govt tied to send researchers to Wuhan, China rejected them.

      It has widely been mis-reported that the President called the virus a "hoax" - it has more accurately been reported what the President called the democrats discussions of the virus a "hoax".

      It's amazing how many people upset about the president's lies are perfectly comfortable spreading their own lies about what he said/did.

      • Same thing (Score:4, Insightful)

        by bussdriver ( 620565 ) on Monday March 30, 2020 @01:56PM (#59889188)

        Splitting hairs. The dems were generally correct and in the right direction on the issue by saying it was just a partisan hoax to attack him he greatly undermined the whole thing WORSE than if he just said it was another hoax by the crooked scientists (like global warming; to say it's a chinese hoax is to attack all those scientists as either corrupt, gullible, incompetent or non-existent.)

        Why is it WORSE to call it a dem hoax issue? Because saying it's a hoax allows some opening to think and discover otherwise. Pigeon holing it into the usual binary partisan squabbling and fake outrage etc that everybody is so tired of-- that is WORSE because people completely tune out.

        It also plays into the MSM sports metaphor of not doing journalism but instead acting as announcers and celebrity gossip for the TWO teams fighting it out. No truth-- it's side A says this and side B says that; don't take a side and talk about facts; if you do take a side you're expected to be wearing the jersey and cheering your side on. If somebody actually focuses on the ISSUE or facts, the metaphor forces people to disbelieve your sincerity in order to place you on a team. Hence, the "RINO" term's massive growth in use; along with terms like traitors being used because there is also a war metaphor being used by the fanatics.

        One can get specific about what constitutes a lie or not. The Washington Post's threshold would call this a lie. I wouldn't say everybody is lying; it doesn't help with the embarrassingly poor english the president uses because it's hard to know what exactly he is referring to by the democrat hoax... was he watching Fox or CNN (he surely wasn't reading party leaders' statements.) All the presidents statements and actions at the time aligned with this "lie" of him calling it a hoax; unless you try again to get into specifics. This incompetent vagueness actually is extremely beneficial because it allows people to interpret it in multiple directions... A "perfect" analysis couldn't be recognized because you must be on team A or team B...

  • He's right. (Score:5, Insightful)

    by hey! ( 33014 ) on Monday March 30, 2020 @01:16PM (#59888928) Homepage Journal

    If you're counting from *right now*, 100,000 dead in the US would represent near flawless planning and execution from this point forward.

    Once more we should look to South Korea for what a good job *from the start* might look like. The epidemic started there within 1 day of it starting here, and active cases peaked on March 3. When everything is done they'll probably have deaths in the *hundreds*, with a population 1/6 that of the US.

    • While I agree with you and share your sentiment on what *should have* been done, at this point that's water under the bridge. We don't have a time machine, so the best we can hope for is that he continues to follow the guidance of people like Dr. Fauci from here on out and not get swayed by sophomoric imbeciles like Fox's Laura Ingraham.

      • Re:He's right. (Score:4, Interesting)

        by hey! ( 33014 ) on Monday March 30, 2020 @01:46PM (#59889138) Homepage Journal

        I agree we don't have a time machine, but that's not why you study history. It's to avoid making the same mistakes.

        The biggest mistakes we have been making to date have been waiting to react to developments experts have already anticipated, and taking advice and spreading information from non-experts that contradicts scientific opinion. As far as I see we're still making those mistakes.

    • Even if we did everything the same or better than South Korea the US would still have many times the number of active cases as any other country. People here don't listen when they are told to stay home and don't gather in crowds. I think it is a cultural thing. Here in the US, people have the "I'm doing what I want to do and F off if you don't like it" attitude. Just look at all the people who went to the beach for spring break and are now infected. In other countries it seems like their citizens do a much
    • for near flawless [thehill.com].

      That would explain why he backed down from re-opening the country.
  • Attend church (Score:3, Insightful)

    by davebarnes ( 158106 ) on Monday March 30, 2020 @01:17PM (#59888940)

    If you are a Trump supporter, please attend Easter services with 300+ other people and MAGA.

    • Humor aside, that would probably backfire. The careless and stupid will go through it before the hospitals are overrun, and will also help to spread the problem to responsible people who otherwise would have never gotten it. What we really need are more people who think about the greater good and fewer who think only about their own personal convenience.
      • by Mal-2 ( 675116 )

        Not if the churches are immediately quarantined. Then getting the rapturists together in one place would put the consequences firmly where they belong. They might even be better off for it because it will be easier to provide medical assistance when we know where they are, rather than being scattered around the vicinity.

      • Re: (Score:2, Informative)

        Everyone will get it eventually. All we're doing is slowing the spread, not stopping it. Your best bet it to get it early before the healthcare system is overwhelmed, or very late, once the peek has died down. All we're trying to do right now is make the peak less high and spread out over time slightly so that the healthcare system can cope better. Make no mistake, you will eventually get it though (unless you live in a plastic bubble).

    • by Tablizer ( 95088 )

      They are now known as "self rapturing services".

  • That would be higher than normal seasonal flu deaths [cdc.gov] (34k in 2019), but far on the low end of the death rate estimates [cdc.gov] from Covid19 so far (0.25%â"3.0%, or 89k - 1 million).

    Some estimates in the past were way higher [nytimes.com] than even that 1 million figure, so it seems like already the U.S. is doing a pretty good job given how the estimates are revising downward [dailywire.com] due to measures put in place here and abroad.

    Honestly, what more could you realistically do than what has already been done? I see a lot of fantasy go

    • Re: (Score:3, Informative)

      by lkcl ( 517947 )

      even though no other country did anything on a much different timeline.

      false.

      Taiwan shut its borders to Hong Kong and China within days. they have had one death (one elderly patient already in hospital and already very ill), and 49 reported infections. six of those were three weeks ago: six tourists.... coming from Italy.

      Taiwan - where i've been living for three years - has, as an Asian country, a significant social tolerance to face-masks. they also have had to deal with Swine flu and other diseases, and took them seriously. when i came through customs last year we had to

    • Most those numbers forget that in a crunch a TON of people die from other things that could have been handled. You might get 1 million deaths but there could be another million not counted because they were NOT directly caused by it.

  • by clay_buster ( 521703 ) on Monday March 30, 2020 @01:18PM (#59888944) Homepage

    Someday we will have a President that puts the country before their ratings, maybe, hopefully.

  • by superdave80 ( 1226592 ) on Monday March 30, 2020 @01:26PM (#59888996)

    Trump also undermined his plea for unity by uttering falsehoods, verbally abusing reporters and making incendiary allegations...

    So, it's Monday already? Wow, this week has just flown by...

  • by TomR teh Pirate ( 1554037 ) on Monday March 30, 2020 @01:32PM (#59889042)
    "Only" 100k US deaths might be a good job given that we only started taking the threat seriously a couple weeks ago. If Trump had been doing a good job all along, we would have been taking this threat seriously a couple *months* ago and could have seen this contained far better than it is now.
  • by imperious_rex ( 845595 ) on Monday March 30, 2020 @01:37PM (#59889066)
    Look, most experts are predicting [msn.com] total US fatalities will range from 200,000 to 1.7 million by the time this COVID19 crisis is over. If we can get that down to 100,000 or less, then yeah, that would be a good job.
  • by EzInKy ( 115248 ) on Monday March 30, 2020 @01:44PM (#59889120)

    "And again, when you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero, that's a pretty good job we've done."

    Seriously, it is extremely hard to believe anything this man says.

    • by jader3rd ( 2222716 ) on Monday March 30, 2020 @02:49PM (#59889468)

      Seriously, it is extremely hard to believe anything this man says.

      Nobody votes for him because they believe what he says. They just really like the attitude of what he's saying. That and what he says makes liberals cry.

      • by Nidi62 ( 1525137 )

        Seriously, it is extremely hard to believe anything this man says.

        They just really like the attitude of what he's saying. That and what he says makes liberals cry.

        And we've all seen how a vote based on "Fuck you, liberals" has turned out so far.....

  • What he says is NOT NEWS. He talks round and round, contradicts himself, changes his mind, ignores reporter questions, etc.

    Until he actually signs something or a staff member confirms an order was given to them personally, his statements are worse than useless as news, because they just distract from actual news.

  • A babbling idiot makes the pronouncement that if the total US coronavirus deaths fall under 100K, then the US gov't has done a good job. Great, I'd call it a miraculous job. And its not going to end up that low. Epidemiologists (the people actually qualified to make a guess) put the death toll at roughly 1-2% of all infected, and that we should see at least 1 million deaths from coronavirus. If I wanted to read the pronouncements of a babbling idiot, I'd pick up and read a newspaper or watch mainstream

  • The CDC estimates as many as 61,000 people die of the flu (in the US) every year. Which is not even newsworthy.

  • by rsilvergun ( 571051 ) on Monday March 30, 2020 @01:51PM (#59889164)
    See here [thehill.com]

    What terrifies me is that you had multiple people from the Republican party [slate.com] and a few CEOs [businessinsider.com] saying that it's OK if people die to save the Economy & the Dow Jones average.

    The Scary thing wasn't that they said it. The Scary thing is they said it and the poll numbers of the people saying it went _up_.

    They old people, "You're going to die" and those people went and replied with "Ok, sure boss".

    It's practically a death cult.
  • Killing only 100,000 people is a bad job report for him. He's aiming for several hundred million, or more.
  • by kamakazi ( 74641 ) on Monday March 30, 2020 @03:03PM (#59889526)

    Mr. Trump is a man of very little imagination, and even less empathy. But I imagine he tried, and when he thought about what he would do if he was in a situation where his safety depended on a commodity in short supply, he would steal and hoard them. Therefore people in that situation must be doing the same thing.
    I think the reality of the situation may be reaching him.
    His numbers still don't make sense to me, when we have WHO predicting overall infection rates north of 50%, and we round down everything it looks like this to me.
    In the US, 50% of 300M is 150M infections
    If there is a 1% mortality rate of that 150M that means 1.5 Million people die.
    I think maybe those numbers are still beyond Trump's ability to imagine, crap, they are beyond my ability to imagine, but if the actual pandemic looks anything like that then everyone will know someone who dies.
    But anyway, I guess we can give him credit for trying to empathize and assume everyone is as mean spirited and self involved as he is.

  • by ZoomieDood ( 778915 ) on Monday March 30, 2020 @04:34PM (#59890000)

    I get tired of reporters asking asinine questions for the sake of trying to trip up the president. You don't see stupid questions being asked of any of the scientific advisors.

    If I were Trump, I'd take one intelligent question from each reporter, and if it went stupid, I'd go to the next person, or ask the network to let a more intelligent reporter in before taking any more questions from that network.

    By asking stupid questions like that, you allow Trump to make false accusations that are going to be forgotten by the time the truth comes out. Nobody knows where this is going, and it does no good to be trying to trap someone in a lie who doesn't care what they say, but in trying, you look stupid in the process.

    The MSM is shooting itself in the foot for asking silly questions.

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