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How Did Covid-19 Begin? WaPo OpEd Claims Its Origin Story Is 'Shaky' (washingtonpost.com) 233

The story of how the novel coronavirus emerged in Wuhan, China, has produced a nasty propaganda battle between the United States and China. Columnist David Ignatius writes in an opinion piece for The Washington Post: The two sides have traded some of the sharpest charges made between two nations since the Soviet Union in 1985 falsely accused the CIA of manufacturing AIDS. U.S. intelligence officials don't think the pandemic was caused by deliberate wrongdoing. The outbreak that has now swept the world instead began with a simpler story, albeit one with tragic consequences: The prime suspect is "natural" transmission from bats to humans, perhaps through unsanitary markets.

But scientists don't rule out that an accident at a research laboratory in Wuhan might have spread a deadly bat virus that had been collected for scientific study. "Good science, bad safety" is how Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) put this theory in a Feb. 16 tweet. He ranked such a breach (or natural transmission) as more likely than two extreme possibilities: an accidental leak of an "engineered bioweapon" or a "deliberate release." Cotton's earlier loose talk about bioweapons set off a furor, back when he first raised it in late January and called the outbreak "worse than Chernobyl."
Important note: "U.S. intelligence officials think there's no evidence whatsoever that the coronavirus was created in a laboratory as a potential bioweapon. Solid scientific research demonstrates that the virus wasn't engineered by humans and that it originated in bats."

In February the Post also quoted Vipin Narang, an associate professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, as saying that it's "highly unlikely" the general population was exposed to a virus through an accident at a lab. "We don't have any evidence for that," said Narang, a political science professor with a background in chemical engineering. That article also noted that even Senator Cotton "acknowledged there is no evidence that the disease originated at the lab."

"Instead, he suggested it's necessary to ask Chinese authorities about the possibility, fanning the embers of a conspiracy theory that has been repeatedly debunked by experts."

UPDATE (4/4/2020): While the op-ed cites a "study" (which they acknowledge was withdrawn as "not supported" by direct proof), the fact-checking site Snopes calls it instead a "document erroneously described by several media outlets as a 'scientific study'," and notes several factual errors in the document. "In sum, this paper -- which was first posted on and later deleted from the academic social networking website ResearchGate -- adds nothing but misinformation to the debate regarding the origins of the novel coronavirus and is not a real scientific study."
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How Did Covid-19 Begin? WaPo OpEd Claims Its Origin Story Is 'Shaky'

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  • by AleRunner ( 4556245 ) on Friday April 03, 2020 @04:53PM (#59905684)
    Scientists said that there's nothing they can do to rule out agents of the invisible pink unicorn being responsible for covid-19. Since the invisible pink unicorn theory is designed to make no scientific predictions, the scientists clearly stated that it's not a "scientific" theory and so can't be ruled out by science. On hearing this the journalist from Fox News said that he would refuse to report the invisible pink unicorn theory until his colleague from the Onion also confirmed his agreement with the theory. Alien abduction with novel coronavirus implanted during a visit to alpha centuri was seen by the scientists as "rather unlikely". When it was suggested that this wasn't the same as ruling it out, the scientists just groaned and refused to engage further. Clearly alien abduction has to remain as one of the leading alternative theories for the origin of the novel coronavirus.
    • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

      by Jarwulf ( 530523 )
      Its completely plausible that the virus came from the laboratory. They work with coronaviruses.
      • by gweihir ( 88907 )

        Its completely plausible that the virus came from the laboratory. They work with coronaviruses.

        Nope. Remember that quite a few variants of the common cold are caused by corona viruses. The family is very, very common and a lot of labs are working with them.

      • Its completely plausible that the virus came from the laboratory. They work with coronaviruses.

        No, that's incorrect. It was the other lab, 7 miles away, that studied coronaviruses. The one by the market did not [snopes.com].

        Stop spreading misinformation.
    • I did just have a can of Ninja Vs Unicorn - seems to have worked for me (so far)

  • by DevNull127 ( 5050621 ) on Friday April 03, 2020 @04:59PM (#59905698)
    From the article:

    To be clear: U.S. intelligence officials think there’s no evidence whatsoever that the coronavirus was created in a laboratory as a potential bioweapon. Solid scientific research demonstrates that the virus wasn’t engineered by humans and that it originated in bats.
    • by rsilvergun ( 571051 ) on Friday April 03, 2020 @05:20PM (#59905792)
      I knew it! Their beady little eyes [duckduckgo.com] and adorable noses [duckduckgo.com] were just a facade to trick us while they engineered our doom. To Twitter!
    • by gweihir ( 88907 )

      From the article:To be clear: U.S. intelligence officials think there’s no evidence whatsoever that the coronavirus was created in a laboratory as a potential bioweapon. Solid scientific research demonstrates that the virus wasn’t engineered by humans and that it originated in bats.

      Nice catch! So /. is now spreading misinformation abouit covid-19....

  • by pgmrdlm ( 1642279 ) on Friday April 03, 2020 @05:00PM (#59905702) Journal
    That this virus was NOT man made. Here is the article I read.

    https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/the-new-coronavirus-was-not-genetically-engineered-study-shows/ [medicalnewstoday.com]
    • That only disputes whether it was "man made", i.e. a bioweapon. The lab near Wuhan was studying this same wild virus, including the gain of function from the HIV inserts and published a paper on that. You're disputing a different claim here, some people saw the gain of function from it using the HIV receptors and got excited.

      So it's not inconceivable that one of their samples of wild virus escaped somehow, which is the possibility being raised here. There are other reports that the bats that carry it don

      • Maybe not "definitively" but, as best I understand virus genetics and rate of mutations, it should be possible to determine with decent confidence whether the early versions of the virus were similar to the samples in the lab or not. It seems quite unlikely that it would have very close similarity (in a mutation sense) if it came from bats via an independent vector. One could probably go out and find some bats and verify that.

        But in the current information climate, I'm a little concerned that this is a

      • by jnaujok ( 804613 ) on Friday April 03, 2020 @06:20PM (#59905994) Homepage Journal
        The problem is not just that the bats that carry it (the common horseshoe bat) are only found 1000 km away in a different province of western China, but that the spike or "S" protein that makes it so infectious is only found in the Gabonese Giant Pangolin, an animal that lives over 10,000 km away. The final SARS-CoV-2 virus is a 99% plus match to the bat SARS virus on every RNA marker except the S protein, while the Pangolin caronavirus RNA is a 99.7% match to the S protein.

        The only way this happens in nature is if one carrier organism was infected with both coronavirus variants simultaneously, a near impossibility for two species separated by half a planet. But both coronavirus samples were known to be present in the Wuhan lab, which was doing research on coronavirus in immune-compromised systems (the HIV inserts mentioned in the parent comment above.)

        So, you have to use Occam's razor and ask yourself the following question:

        Which is more likely?
        • Two species separated by 10,000 km somehow infected the same host animal, forming a chimeric combination of Coronovirus that then made the jump to humans in another location 1000 km from the nearest animal that carried the initial virus.
        • Someone in a lab, where both viruses were present and used for research infected an organism that was immune compromised with both viruses, and then became infected themselves, carrying the pathogen out of the lab and perhaps stopping at the food market, 200 meters from the front door of the virology lab, for a bite to eat on the way home.

        I know which one my money is on.

        • by fred911 ( 83970 )

          "I know which one my money is on."

          Have you not accounted for the fact that China is the epicenter for pangolin trafficking, IE: the world's biggest buyer?

        • Except the Chinese have this habit of finding the most endagered and wierd animals, putting them togethee in a box in a market and then eating them. Sometimes live, in the middle of that very market. The idea that these distant animals were all stuck together in a poacher's cage to be sold for big money to some limp-dicked Chinese businessman is probably more likely.

    • by gweihir ( 88907 )

      Well, most US citizens and specially US politicians do not understand what a "fact" is or how "Science" works. Instead they believe they can change reality by just claiming repeatedly that things are actually different.

      The evidence that the virus was not artificially created or tampered with is very, very solid. The only exception would be if China were decades ahead of everybody else in that area, but there is really no reason to believe that.

    • That this virus was NOT man made. Here is the article I read.

      https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/the-new-coronavirus-was-not-genetically-engineered-study-shows/ [medicalnewstoday.com]

      The genetic engineered bio-weapon theories are dumb, and refuted by the evidence.

      The theory from this article was quite a bit more rational:
      1) It's a bat virus but bats weren't sold at the market.
      2) The nearby lab was apparently collecting bat coronaviruses as recently as December.
      3) There's reasons to think the lab took inadequate safety measures.

      Now I'm still not convinced, Occam's good 'ol fashioned razor suggests the virus showed up in the market, so it probably originated there as well. A lab release r

      • by jythie ( 914043 )
        Eh, it is only rational because people are used to hearing about diseases that are already human-transmittable escaping from labs. That is where inadequate safety measures can really matter. But diseases that are not human transmittable, you have to be doing something FAR worse than 'inadequate safety' to get the points of contact high enough for such an improbable things to happen, THEN still have the regular old problems in order for it to escape. It is always possible someone at the lab got really, re
    • Ok, I am going back to drinking beer and watching totally non political/death and destruction movies and tv shows.

      If a mistake happened in a lab that was studying the virus, which I can believe. I have seen no reputable articles as of yet on that. But it is easily conceivable.

      I still think that the release of information in the beginning from ALL sources was at fault. From the Chinese government, to WHO, and also our own government. I don't know if it was down right lying on anyone's part, or if th
  • by AndyKron ( 937105 ) on Friday April 03, 2020 @05:01PM (#59905712)
    Laowhy86 has an interesting video about the virus lab thing. Not paywalled: https://www.youtube.com/watch?... [youtube.com]
  • by Futurepower(R) ( 558542 ) on Friday April 03, 2020 @05:02PM (#59905718) Homepage
    This story submission was immediately rejected: COVID-19 Vaccine Candidate Shows Promise in First Peer-Reviewed Research [slashdot.org].

    Do Slashdot readers only want to read bad news?
    • Comment removed (Score:4, Insightful)

      by account_deleted ( 4530225 ) on Friday April 03, 2020 @05:10PM (#59905748)
      Comment removed based on user account deletion
    • Because the story is about useless baloney. Plenty of vaccines are "showing promise in mice right now" by various biotech companies and schools, just as they did in SARS and MERS before. Likely none of them will work. By the way, there is a trial for SARS vaccine in humans that just finished phase 1, 17 years later...

      But as for proven vaccines for any coronavirus on planet earth, there are zero. Get it through your skulls, the dozens of vaccines in early trial right now likely won't work.

      • by Cyberax ( 705495 )

        But as for proven vaccines for any coronavirus on planet earth, there are zero.

        That's factually incorrect. There are several effective animal coronavirus vaccines against bovine coronavirus.

        • I was talking about humans. Yes we can vaccinate mice and cows for several things, which is why these things get investor bucks. Then, 100% the time to date except for that SARs thing I mentioned which might flop they fail in humans (sad trombone song)

          • by Cyberax ( 705495 )
            Coronaviruses have never been a big problem for humans before the COVID-19. So nobody really cared enough to develop a vaccine. It doesn't mean that vaccines are not possible.
    • Came to a realization last week - those currently in a bad emotional place and locked into anxiety and fear, cannot be cured with facts and logic. It's like trying to convince a Catholic that god doesn't exist. They didn't get into that place with rationality and they won't get out of it with rationality either.

      I've been following the data since day one and still searching for a damn single piece of data that would cause me worry. If people even do respond, it's to point to the latest anecdote keeping
      • Another good clinical study summary to set context is this one [thelancet.com], which helps paint the picture of why so many erroneously believe this virus has an elevated mortality rate. This was a study of a hospital in Wuhan which had 41 patients show up needing care from coronavirus infections by Jan 2. The statistic from this one line was taken by the media and used incredibly inappropriately: "At this stage, the mortality rate is high for 2019-nCoV, because six (15%) of 41 patients in this cohort died."

        Understand
    • by ceoyoyo ( 59147 )

      Sounds pretty much like the story about the positive vaccine test currently on the front page.

      Paranoid a little?

  • I really don't get the engineered bioweapon angle - this thing isn't remotely dangerous enough to be a bioweapon. I suppose there's a slim chance it could be intentionally engineered to just cause social and economic hardship rather than death, but that seems a little implausible, especially since the attacker would get hit just as hard. My understanding is that you generally you want a bioweapon to kill almost as quickly as it spreads, if not quicker, so that containment is possible for those who know it

    • Some people saw the gain of function from HIV and got excited, but others pointed out that it's not that uncommon.

      That said, the same lab was publishing papers on the same virus with the same gain of function. So it's hardly inconceivable that the wild virus samples could've leaked from the lab, which is the theory here (NOT the 'bioweapon' theory you're responding to).

      I don't know if we'll ever know one way or the other, but I just wanted to point out that you're responding to a very different theory than

    • I really don't get the engineered bioweapon angle - this thing isn't remotely dangerous enough to be a bioweapon.

      Covid-19 was the 2nd leading cause of death in March. [cbsnews.com]

    • they tend to be very pro-Establishment and conservative, whereas the young folk want to shake things up, and most governments want a base that will resist change in favor of established players.

      The bio-weapon angle is more than likely just an attempt to shift blame by governments that were massively under-prepared in the face of a disaster everybody knew was coming [slashdot.org].

      It's now come out that the current administration could have ordered machines that crank out 1.5 million N95 masks a day and didn't. I
    • by jythie ( 914043 )
      The 'bioweapon' idea mostly just fits in with people's worldviews involving horrible events being against god's plan thus require some conscious malicious actor involved in its creation. It makes about as much sense as all the other NWO stuff.
  • Nothing is shaky here and the genome (which has been fully sequenced) pretty much rules out any artificial changes. Also, this thing is very easy to kill with disinfectant or just soap and water. There is nothing "shaky" about the origin story of this virus. There is however a lot of scummy politicians that seek to profit from the current situation.

  • Very unfortunate during this time to see so many people who should be smarter - the most well educated of my friends and family, and even those on Slashdot here - fall prey so easily to nonsensical conspiracy theories. People in normal times who would dismiss such silliness, have lost their firm grip on rationality due to fear.

    If this was a bio-weapon, it's about the shittiest one possible. It is highly contagious, but not particularly deadly at all, especially when considering your typical influenza i
  • by steveha ( 103154 ) on Friday April 03, 2020 @05:19PM (#59905790) Homepage

    So Senator Tom Cotton said that the most likely source of the virus is "natural", and less likely but still possible was "bad safety" at a research lab. And in January he "stepped away" from impeachment hearings to try to focus attention on the coronavirus problem. And at that time he called the threat of coronavirus "worse than Chernobyl".

    My reaction to all of the above is: as far as I can tell he's right about all of it. More people have already died just near my home from the coronavirus outbreak than died from Chernobyl, so IMHO that's the most obviously true thing he said.

    The article quotes this with scare words: "Cotton's earlier loose talk"... it's followed by "China dished wild, irresponsible allegations of its own" which implies that Cotton was dishing wild, irresponsible allegations. It then quotes a Chinese diplomat saying soothing things, described in approving tones.

    It's the Washington Post. I think it's against their editorial policy to report the facts neutrally.

    My terse and slant-free summary of the article: We don't actually know how the coronavirus first infected humans. There are problems with the theory that the source was a Chinese wet market: the suspected market is a seafood market so bat isn't on the menu there. The US hasn't ruled out accidental release from a research lab (like the lab 300 yards from the suspected wet market). Nobody is seriously considering the idea that China released it deliberately.

  • by Anonymous Coward
    Snopes already has a page about this [snopes.com]...
  • It was the only way to be sure

  • allow handling coronavirus specimens in BSL-2 facilities as well.

    If you want to culture (i.e. *grow*) viruses, you need BSL-3 facilities, as well as if you do particularly risky features like inoculate animals.

  • Despite the astonishing speed at which molecular biology was used to tear this thing apart and figure out what it was and how it worked, the scientific detective work to get a satisfactory answer to where it came from will take a long time.

    That's because outside the lab, the real world is chock-a-block with red herrings. It's so easy to put together a compellingly plausible story, but that doesn't mean the story is true.

    Take the infamous Huanan Seafood wet market. There's no question that the thing is uns

  • The virus comes from Gotham, made by a man called Bruce Wayne.

  • Source WIKI:

    1982: "The Chicago Tylenol Murders were a series of poisoning deaths resulting from drug tampering in the Chicago metropolitan area...The victims had all taken Tylenol-branded acetaminophen capsules that had been laced with potassium cyanide"

    "Hundreds of copycat attacks involving Tylenol, other over-the-counter medications, and other products also took place around the United States immediately following the Chicago deaths." - This included purposefully poisoning others and using the "Tylenol Ki

  • Its the way the Chinese make use of bat tissue, and tissue from other exotic animals.

    They turn them into chinese medicine, which is bought by people who are ill, and probably have a fully occupied immune system to start with.

  • It's a viral marketing campaign for the forthcoming mini series The Stand. Thank you, I'll be here all month. There is no veal so try the bat!

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