What a Week's Disasters Tell Us About Climate and the Pandemic (nytimes.com) 66
The hits came this week in rapid succession: A cyclone slammed into the Indian megacity of Kolkata, pounding rains breached two dams in the Midwestern United States, and on Thursday came warning that the Atlantic hurricane season could be severe. It all served as a reminder that the coronavirus pandemic, which has killed 325,000 people so far, is colliding with another global menace: a fast-heating planet that acutely threatens millions of people, especially the world's poor. From a report: Climate change makes extreme weather events more frequent and more intense. Now, because of the pandemic, they come at a time when national economies are crashing and ordinary people are stretched to their limits. Relief organizations working in eastern India and Bangladesh, for instance, say the lockdown had already forced people to rely on food aid by the time the storm, Cyclone Amphan, hit. Then, the high winds and heavy rains ruined newly sown crops that were meant to feed communities through next season. "People have nothing to fall back on," Pankaj Anand, a director at Oxfam India, said in a statement Thursday. The worst may be yet to come.
Several other climate hazards are looming, as the coronavirus unspools its long tail around the world. They include the prospect of heat waves in Europe and South Asia, wildfires from the western United States to Europe to Australia, and water scarcity in South America and Southern Africa, where a persistent drought is already deepening hunger. And then there's the locusts. Locusts. Abnormally heavy rains last year, which scientists say were made more likely by the long-term warming of the Indian Ocean, a hallmark of climate change, have exacerbated a locust infestation across eastern Africa. Higher temperatures make it more inviting for locusts to spread to places where the climate wasn't as suitable before -- and in turn, destroy vast swaths of farmland and pasture for some of the poorest people on the planet.
Several other climate hazards are looming, as the coronavirus unspools its long tail around the world. They include the prospect of heat waves in Europe and South Asia, wildfires from the western United States to Europe to Australia, and water scarcity in South America and Southern Africa, where a persistent drought is already deepening hunger. And then there's the locusts. Locusts. Abnormally heavy rains last year, which scientists say were made more likely by the long-term warming of the Indian Ocean, a hallmark of climate change, have exacerbated a locust infestation across eastern Africa. Higher temperatures make it more inviting for locusts to spread to places where the climate wasn't as suitable before -- and in turn, destroy vast swaths of farmland and pasture for some of the poorest people on the planet.
Dams (Score:5, Insightful)
The dams in Michigan collapsed because they weren't maintained properly. Rainfall in Michigan has been pretty average this year. Lake levels are up due to the heavy snowfall from a few years ago, but even that isn't abnormal weather for Michigan.
*Correction (Score:5, Informative)
One dam failed due to lack of maintenance. The second dam failed because the first dam dumped an entire lakes worth of water into it at once.
Re:*Correction (Score:5, Informative)
Re: (Score:2)
Unfortunately, the state regulators decided that fresh water mussels and lakefront homeowners took priority over the safety of those downstream and ordered the water level be raised.
This is an interesting take on it. I'm reminded of the 2011 flood in Brisbane Australia where a rainfall event caused the dam to ultimately spill over and flood the city. No damage to the dam but everyone was wondering how the dam managed to get to 186% capacity. Well the dam was built as a flood mitigation due to a disaster 30 years earlier. Fast forward through a couple of droughts and the state started saying, why don't we use half the dam capacity for drinking water. Now a dam designed to mitigate a one
Re:*Correction (Score:4, Insightful)
Another reason it failed was government intervention due to and endangred species of fresh water mussels. The last 2 years the company owning the dam and the Michigan Department of Environment, Great Lakes and Energy (EGLE) have law suits against each other. The owner wanted to lower the water levels, but EGLE didn't want to. Also, the people around the lake didn't want it drawn down either. Want a nice water front.
Looking at all the facts, this has little to do with climate change and alot to do with mismanagement from the owner and EGLE. It's very evident this 95 year old dam needed work, and how do endangered species get protection in a man made lake? They weren't there before we built the dam, and they sure as heck are not now.
This is how climate change skeptics are created. Please don't lump every natural disaster into the "climate change" wrapper. If we do, no one will believe it. Let the real climate change numbers speak for themselves. Then people will take it seriously.
Re: Dams (Score:3)
But the crust expanding due to global warming caused most of the cracks. Weâ(TM)re going to have even more earthquakes as the Earth keeps expanding out of control.
No (Score:4, Insightful)
The dam failed because it didn't have proper overflow ducts. It had nothing to do with cracks.
Re: (Score:2)
The dam failed because it didn't have proper overflow ducts. It had nothing to do with cracks.
You are replying to this, remember: "But the crust [is] expanding due to global warming caused most of the cracks. We're going to have even more earthquakes as the Earth keeps expanding out of control."
The Earth expanding?? :)
Wooosh!
You were replying to a joke, just a not so well constructed one. Just like the dam.
Re: (Score:2)
as long as the san andreas promises to send CA into the pacific ocean Im ok with that... theyve been promising that since the 80s. They can take all their public sidewalk shitting hobos with them. Maybe it will get turned into a penal colony like in Escape from LA.
Re: Dams (Score:1)
Right now both NY and CA are already a penal colony. There is no reason for most of the state not to have their restrictions lifted.
Re: (Score:2)
as long as the san andreas promises to send CA into the pacific ocean Im ok with that...
In fact, the San Andreas fault is slipping the west coast of CA north toward Alaska.
Re: (Score:2)
Al Gore warned us about this.
Re: (Score:1)
Nope, sorry, seen real disaster now (Score:1, Troll)
I find these attempts to still claim climate change is a "disaster" to be utterly pathetic now that we have seen what a real disaster looks like.
Oh no, a few rich people might have to move a mile inland from seaside villas over the course of several decades! That certainly is worse than hundreds of thousands dead (many of them poor) from a virus and a global economy shut down.
Re: (Score:2)
"Oh no, a few rich people might have to move a mile inland from seaside villas over the course of several decades! "
They are called New Yorkers.
Re: (Score:2)
Re: (Score:2)
Every effect of global warming is bad. Every one ever found. Prove me wrong.
The fact you think that can be proved beforehand, shows just how stupid warming alarmists are.
The fact that you can't recognize obvious sarcasm even when it is broad and clearly evident tells you how the internet works.
Re: (Score:2)
Fewer people on the planet will be good, so there's that.
Re: (Score:2)
You think you have seen a real disaster? Well, maybe a small one. Climate change is going to be in the "huge" class and there will not be a vaccine to make it go away.
Re: (Score:2)
You think you have seen a real disaster? Well, maybe a small one. Climate change is going to be in the "huge" class and there will not be a vaccine to make it go away.
A cure has been found. It's putting giant ice cubes in the ocean. Saw it on a documentary called Futurama.
Re: (Score:2)
A cure has been found. It's putting giant ice cubes in the ocean. Saw it on a documentary called Futurama.
The Antarcticans have been doing exactly that for years, without much effect.
Re: (Score:2)
an even better come back is 'Oh sorry! we are staring down another 3 trillion dollar bailout over the collapsing economy! No money left for you... so sad' Because thats about the truth of it. For people that think the US can just print more money, that never worked out well for Mexico. The Peso collapsed big time. It was like 4:1 back in 1995. Now its around 26:1. Paper has to be backed by something, so the more you print, the less the individual value remains. So in reality, there is only so much to go ar
Re: (Score:2)
The US has a much larger economy than Mexico, and can continue to "print money" for as long as people like US bonds
Re: Nope, sorry, seen real disaster now (Score:2)
Yea Im buying silver and platinum with what spare change I can scrape together. Maybe gold if i get to the point i can afford it.
Re: (Score:2)
Yea Im buying silver and platinum with what spare change I can scrape together. Maybe gold if i get to the point i can afford it.
I hope you're joking. If not, please turn in your geek card because you don't deserve one.
Re: (Score:2)
Typical stupor Ken Doll post. Neither Covid nor global warming has yet reached a crescendo but you want to compare them. Your comment is exactly as stupid as all the ones comparing past flu seasons (which are over) to Covid (which ain't.)
Re: (Score:1)
Climate change and the COVID-19 pandemic are both disasters. Different in magnitude (climate change >> pandemic), different in terms of who / what is affected in which ways, and on a different timescale.
The pandemic basically affects humans only. Development of a vaccine and/or effective medication, or the virus mutating into a much more dangerous variant, can change the course of events dramatically. But either way, duration of the pandemic and its effects are measured in months or years.
The eff
Re: (Score:2)
The effects of climate change are measured in decades or centuries.
Make it hundred thousands of years. Carbon Dioxide is chemically inactive. Once in the atmosphere, it stays there until it is actively pulled out (which means that you have to use energy). Currently, only green plants are able to sequester Carbon Dioxide from the atmosphere in large amounts, and you have to hugely increase the total mass of green plants on Earth to have an effect (and huge means, we are talking about a magnitude of a trillion tons!).
A back-of-the-envelope calculation of the amount of ener
Covid-19 is hardly a disaster (Score:2)
Of the 50-60 million global deaths in an average year, most are diseases we'd classify as deaths due to old age or natural causes. The one glaring exception is traffic accidents [who.int]. Those kill about 1.4 million people each year (meaning we should be approaching the 600k mark about now this ye
Overpopulation (Score:3)
Paul Ehrlich? Is that you?... (Score:2)
I figured you and your old pal John Holdren were getting too old by now to keep grinding that old axe... it was something like the 1970s after all when you guys inspired stuff like "Soylent Green" and "Silent Running" in the pop culture. Writing books and going on speaking tours about this paranoia was a pretty good gig for a few decades, and probably beat doing real work, but you guys ought to be wealthy and retired by now; what further use do you have for this scam in your twilight years? Surely you have
Re: (Score:2)
Most normal people who live within sight of trees and water know full well that the world is only sparsely populated ... it will never be "overpopulated" ...
That viewpoint assumes that overpopulation is a simple matter of 'space for people'. But there are also the matters of sufficient food, sufficient potable water, safe disposal of various kinds of waste and pollutants, the additional production of greenhouse gases associated with more people and animals for them to eat, the depletion of non-renewable resources, etc., etc., etc. Yes, the planet probably could support a vastly higher population, if we forswore modern conveniences and technologies and returned
Re: (Score:2)
then you must be somebody who lives tightly packed into a big city with no view out the window of anything but glass and steel and concrete. Most normal people who live within sight of trees
Actually I live in a country with one of the lowest population densities (less than 3 humans per square km) and my view is of nothing but trees. That same country has water restrictions as last summer we were down to six months supply in our largest city and many smaller towns had to have it trucked in. Normally we produce enough food for 3 times our population and if we didn't get rain we would have been looking at importing more food this year. This is a very complex problem which you feel is simple shove
Yeah, yeah, who cares? (Score:2)
Global warming's mostly gonna hit some disposable humans, but the Covid shit threatens first world countries and here especially those with money, could we please focus on the important things?
thanks again msmash, for the fearmongering (Score:1)
such a cause-effect is plain to see when the NYT views everything from a sjw perspective
sure, climate change is real and yes, humans are influential in the matter; and yes, the virus does allow for some before/after comparisons that should put more light on the issue; but let's not pretend we have a full understanding of things; too many seem to want to use half-truths and
another msmash post (Score:5, Insightful)
Nothing to see here, move along
Re: (Score:2)
The "top" scientists and organizations have been getting their doom and gloom wrong for decades. In 86 John Holdren (later science advisor to Obama), said there would be a 3-5 degrees rise in temp by 2010...
He did not. Why the hell do trolls make shit up?
Here is a direct quote from Holdren: "What I can tell you for sure is that it gets more and more difficult to cope with the impacts of climate change the higher we go" [in CO2 emissions].
"Hard to cope with the effects of emissions".
Re: (Score:2)
I didn't find any reference to Holdren predicting a large temperature increase, but ...
Correct. OP is a troll who makes shit up.
Was Amphan an outlier? (Score:2)
Digging through google news, I'm not finding a lot of news stories saying that Amphan was particularly worse than other Cyclones in that region? Was it?
And saying the "Atlantic hurricane season could be severe" doesn't seem like a disaster. At least not yet.
Are we sure that Climate change didn't save us from an even more severe "Amphan?" And if this year the Atlantic hurricane season is mild, will that be because of climate change?
No, I want the numbers (Score:2)
is colliding with another global menace: a fast-heating planet that acutely threatens millions of people, especially the world's poor
Barely, given the described events are driven by temp deltas, and that's only a about 1% percent of total energy, so you might expect a proportional tiny increase to the number and strength of such events because the temperature swing "breathing space" powering these is a tiny bit larger.
We need to seriously track such numbers, and compare it to hyperbole like this that comes pouring forth every time a hurricane appears.
Re: (Score:1)
Re: No, I want the numbers (Score:2)
LOL, love that. Seems we have quite a few civil engineers here too, judging by the comments about why the dams in Michigan failed.
Re: (Score:2)
So climatologists are all bungling idiots and you're right? Amazing.
Climatologists are not all bungling idiots, but the journalist who wrote TFA is.
Re: No, I want the numbers (Score:1)
No climatologist should have an opinion on a weather-related event.
The cyclone hit particularly hard because we reduced economic output which is what we need to do to reduce climate change.
So here, we did what you asked for, we reduced the economic output of the world by 90% which will reduce the impact of weather events, now everyone on the left is happy? No, now they're blaming the reduced economic output for the weather events.
Pandemic of media hyperbole (Score:2, Insightful)
The media is a professional trolling organization publishing bullshit to get peoples attention and push their buttons rather than offering anything of substantive value.
Re: (Score:2)
The media is a professional trolling organization
They have become that. The Yellow Journalism won the internet.
Re: (Score:2)
That computer models can be wrong... (Score:2)
...that experts screw up predictions all the time, and that we shouldn't destroy our economy over it?
Oh wait, we're not allowed to draw that conclusion, because that would question The Holy Global Warming, and such apostasy must be punished.
Re: (Score:2)
Sure, except that everything you said was effectively wrong. The models have so far proven to be surprisingly accurate, and you're allowed to draw any conclusion you want if you can back it up.
Computer models can definitely be wrong, but you were making that statement to assert that they are, when so far they're quite good.
Re: (Score:1)
Actually you've got that backwards. Computer models can never be wrong. A computer model is code based on premises based on what you think you already know. As time goes on you get more data, your premises change and so does you model to fit the curve. And in a complex system it is almost impossible to reverse engineer the variables and their relationships precisely from the curve. Even in simpler systems if you get it 80% right you are doing very well.
The IPCC has found no evidence of an trend of an increa
where is the evidence (Score:1)
Re: (Score:2)
Huh. That's actually sensible. Yes, attributing particular events, even extreme ones, to global warming is statistically dubious. Attributing a pattern is possible-- if you do a good job of avoiding statistical errors-- but not attributing particular events.
Re: (Score:2)
Yes, attributing particular events, even extreme ones, to global warming is statistically dubious.
Dubious or not it has a name now. It's called Attribution Science [sciencenew...udents.org].
Crazy doesnt help (Score:1)
Might as well end it all now (Score:1)
We should all just solve our problems with hara-kiri before the rand("climate change","virus outbreak","killer hornets","cannibal rats","orange-man-bad","whatever-the-left-is-pushing-today") disaster gets us.
Re: (Score:2)
We should all just solve our problems with hara-kiri
The lefties are welcome to commit Sudoko any time they want.
Silver lining: locusts are edible insects (Score:2)
Locusts are a potential food source:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]