New York Times Investigates How in America 'the Virus Won' (nytimes.com) 388
"Invisible outbreaks sprang up everywhere. The United States ignored the warning signs," writes the New York Times, in a detailed interactive data visualization.
"We analyzed travel patterns, hidden infections and genetic data to show how the epidemic spun out of control." By mid-February, there were only 15 known coronavirus cases in the United States, all with direct links to China... The patients were isolated. Their contacts were monitored. Travel from China was restricted.
None of that worked. Only a small part of the picture was visible. Some 2,000 hidden infections were already spreading through major cities...
Genetic samples linked to the Seattle outbreak appeared in at least 14 states, said Trevor Bedford, a professor at Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center... In New York City, where officials had found only a single case by March 1, roughly 10,000 infections had spread undetected... More than 5,000 contagious travelers left New York City in the first two weeks of March, estimates suggest... People [from New York City] also made more than 25,000 trips to New Orleans, where genetic data suggests that a large early outbreak stemmed from infections from New York...
Travel from the city helped to spread that variant across the country. "New York has acted as a Grand Central Station for this virus," said David Engelthaler of the Translational Genomics Research Institute. By the time President Trump blocked travel from Europe on March 13, the restrictions were essentially pointless. The outbreak had already been spreading widely in most states for weeks... The New Orleans outbreak helped seed infection across Louisiana and the South...
Even now, America remains in the dark. Most infected people are never tested. There is little capacity to trace and isolate the contacts to those who do test positive.
After the lockdowns expired, new cases spiked once again.
"We analyzed travel patterns, hidden infections and genetic data to show how the epidemic spun out of control." By mid-February, there were only 15 known coronavirus cases in the United States, all with direct links to China... The patients were isolated. Their contacts were monitored. Travel from China was restricted.
None of that worked. Only a small part of the picture was visible. Some 2,000 hidden infections were already spreading through major cities...
Genetic samples linked to the Seattle outbreak appeared in at least 14 states, said Trevor Bedford, a professor at Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center... In New York City, where officials had found only a single case by March 1, roughly 10,000 infections had spread undetected... More than 5,000 contagious travelers left New York City in the first two weeks of March, estimates suggest... People [from New York City] also made more than 25,000 trips to New Orleans, where genetic data suggests that a large early outbreak stemmed from infections from New York...
Travel from the city helped to spread that variant across the country. "New York has acted as a Grand Central Station for this virus," said David Engelthaler of the Translational Genomics Research Institute. By the time President Trump blocked travel from Europe on March 13, the restrictions were essentially pointless. The outbreak had already been spreading widely in most states for weeks... The New Orleans outbreak helped seed infection across Louisiana and the South...
Even now, America remains in the dark. Most infected people are never tested. There is little capacity to trace and isolate the contacts to those who do test positive.
After the lockdowns expired, new cases spiked once again.
The virus is winning... (Score:5, Insightful)
The virus is winning because leadership in the USA is MIA, governments are dysfunctional, and there's a strong streak of stupidity and anti-science sentiment.
More specifically (Score:5, Insightful)
You're right that government has some real problems in the US.
Largely because it's so partisan due to our first-past-the-post voting system, which is pretty much the worst of dozens of voting systems.
That said, what, exactly, would have helped prevent THIS situation? Quoting TFS:
-- ...
Genetic samples linked to the Seattle outbreak appeared in at least 14 states
More than 5,000 contagious travelers left New York City in the first two weeks of March
People from New York City also made more than 25,000 trips to New Orleans,
--
It spread around the country quickly because people travelled around the country spreading it. If Louisiana hadn't let people in, Louisiana wouldn't have a bunch of covid cases. The United States is twice the the size of EU geographically and we did virtually nothing to contain the spread when we knew where the hot spots were. In Europe they didn't let people just fly out from the hot spots in Italy and bring it to the UK or wherever they wanted to.
Obviously there are reasons that we didn't want to limit travel. It would made a difference, though.
Re:More specifically (Score:5, Interesting)
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You're right that government has some real problems in the US. Largely because it's so partisan due to our first-past-the-post voting system, which is pretty much the worst of dozens of voting systems.
That said, what, exactly, would have helped prevent THIS situation?
Getting testing out a month earlier. The FDC and CDC screwed up. [nytimes.com]
https://www.google.com/search?... [google.com]
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Largely because it's so partisan due to our first-past-the-post voting system, which is pretty much the worst of dozens of voting systems.
Voting systems doesn't fix what you got. There are many democracies around the world with a variety of different systems. Many of them degrade to party politics and many of them become two party races regardless of what kind of a system they have. Even systems with minority party representation can also get stuck in the perpetual stupid cycle of simply undoing what the previous administration did.
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It can happen but when no party has a plurality of seats they automatically have to learn to compromise.
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Indeed but again that's not the result of the voting system. Two party stupidities as well as religious support for a political party happen with any voting systems.
Fundamentally the problem is two-party politics, not the the FPTP system. ... well actually FPTP ultimately leads to two-party politics, but my point was that other systems don't prevent them either.
Re:More specifically (Score:5, Interesting)
In the existing US system, first there is the primary - largely a competition to see which Republican can be MOST conservative and which Democrat can be MOST liberal. Then the two extreme candidates square off in the general election and half the country is pissed at the result. The winner is the person most disliked by half the country. You could hardly create a more divisive system if you tried.
There are a dozen different varieties of ranked-choice systems, all of which tend to pick the candidate who is acceptable to the greatest number of people. While the US system finds the two most extreme candidates and then pits them against each other, those systems favor candidates that everyone can live with - typically because they are actually qualified for the job. As opposed to picking the most politically extreme person (but typically not so extreme that even most in their own party find them repulsive).
That said, there are also other things that cause partisanship. Specifically, Congress tended to cooperate better across the aisle until 1987. Democrat Speaker of the House Tip O'Neill and president Reagan so things from different perspectives, but respected one another and understood that the other guy was trying to do the best for the country. They just disagreed about how to best serve the country.
In '87, Reagan nominated a well-qualified but conservative judge for SCOTUS. Democrat leaders discussed a strategy. One suggestion was to go from talking about his qualifications to instead attacking a nominee personally, basically a political hack job. Leaders worried that this would start a cycle of partisan bitterness, a "gang war" in Congress replacing the negotiated statesmanship. The Dems ended up being more right than they could have imagined. Since Bork we never have recovered.
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Correlation is not causation.
Re: The virus is winning... (Score:4, Insightful)
You: "Correlation is not Causation." (Continues to pound fingers with hammer.)
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Yup fuck the elderly and the weak, 'Murica!
Romans and Christians [Re:The virus is winning...] (Score:5, Insightful)
No, science says the virus is a non-issue to most everyone. If you're very old or fat & lazy or otherwise defective it may be a problem.
Kill the "otherwise defective". Wow.
There are basically two types of people here: Christians, who believe we should support the old, the weak, the sick, and the poor; and Romans, who believe in strength, law, and order as the most important things.
What is interesting is that, overall, it's the conservatives who advocate the Roman virtues, and the liberals who advocate the Christian.
Of course, the Romans weren't all bad. They sure did build roads. [youtube.com]
Yup fuck the elderly and the weak, 'Murica!
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Tell me, do you believe that inventing an alternative reality and getting really angry about it represents Christian values?
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We replaced evolution with civilization a while ago. Try it some time, you might like it.
Re:The virus is winning... (Score:5, Funny)
No, science says the virus is a non-issue to most everyone. If you're very old or fat & lazy or otherwise defective it may be a problem. Science also says the number of deaths is still decreasing.
The number of deaths is decreasing?! Holy shit! People are coming back from the dead?! I think there is a bigger problem here - or a miracle.
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Re: The virus is winning... (Score:3, Informative)
Vitamin D deficiency is also a serious issue and is partially caused by the government recommending D fortified substances that have no fat in them even though D is a fat soluble vitamin. Thus providing reassurance while at the same time actively harming people.
TL;DR Skim milk and white bread are a fucking health hazard because they make people think their consumption habits are a hell of a lot healthier than they actually are.
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There was one study that suggested a correlation between vitamin D and lower risks in covid19 infection, but plenty of others are questioning that since considering many more countries shows exceptions, like Brazil having 10 times the infections/deaths as neighbors.
So put your vitamin D deficiency / anti-skim milk / white bread hobby horse away, doesn't seem relevant to pandemic when the whole globe considered.
Correlation is not causation [Re: The virus is...] (Score:2)
There was one study that suggested a correlation between vitamin D and lower risks in covid19 infection, but plenty of others are questioning that...
Yes. And note that that study was indeed correlation, not causation. It could be that COVID19 causes lower vitamin D levels, for example; or that the patients with the most severe cases of COVID19 don't go outdoors as much.
At the risk of repeating things that everybody here knows [dilbert.com], correlation is not causation.
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You want some essential oils to go with that vitamin D? Both are equally as effective. Vitamins are only useful if you have an actual measurable deficiency otherwise you're just pissing most of them out.
Re: The virus is winning... (Score:2)
No fucking shit Sherlock, however when a fuckton of Americans are shown to be vitamin deficient from studies done long before Covid, you can shove your nattering idiocy up your ass.
https://www.scientificamerican... [scientificamerican.com]
Re:The virus is winning... (Score:5, Insightful)
Science also says the number of deaths is still decreasing.
Deaths lag new cases by months. New cases are on the rise. Let's see if "science" still says that in September and October.
Re:The virus is winning... (Score:4, Insightful)
Science says a lot of things, but then people misinterpret those things.
Science says that most young to middle-aged people who get the virus but have no preexisting health problems will have mild or even no symptoms and no long term complications.
That does *not* mean the virus is not a concern for most people. About half of all young adults (20-49) have at least one condition (e.g. obesity, metabolic syndrome, hypertension) that predisposes them to serious complications, in some cases without knowing it.
Even if you are in no identifiable high risk group you can face life-altering complications [npr.org].
Coronavirus protections are like wearing your seatbelt. You'll probably be fine if you don't wear your seatbelt, but it's sensible to be concerned with the consequences, both to yourself and others.
Re:The virus is winning... (Score:5, Informative)
Is is NOT a common cold virus. ISome symptoms are the same but different diseases. By spreading lies like this you are either stupid or malicious. Neither is flattering, not even for an AC.
For many infected it merely means staying in bed for a few weeks, but where the common cold send very few people into hospital care, this virus does, and some need specialized care for such an extended period of time that it strains the health care. Even if you don't get seriously ill, recovery time is often way longer than a cold or even the seasonal flu. I have colleagues that were bedridden for over two months and in one case lost all sense of taste. He has no idea when that sense will return.
I don't give a shit for your "LOL":s.
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Is is NOT a common cold virus. ISome symptoms are the same but different diseases. By spreading lies like this you are either stupid or malicious. Neither is flattering, not even for an AC.
For many infected it merely means staying in bed for a few weeks, but where the common cold send very few people into hospital care, this virus does, and some need specialized care for such an extended period of time that it strains the health care. Even if you don't get seriously ill, recovery time is often way longer than a cold or even the seasonal flu. I have colleagues that were bedridden for over two months and in one case lost all sense of taste. He has no idea when that sense will return.
I don't give a shit for your "LOL":s.
Complete idiots like this one nicely explain why the US has never gotten his thing under control and infection rates are raising again. Wishful thinking instead of looking at the actual science. Claims of "we do not have a problem" while things get worse. How anybody can still make such claims at this time is completely fascinating and basically means that no matter how solid or overwhelming the evidence, these people will stick to their fantasies. This is something expected in medieval times, but in modern
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Well, that's an intellectually dishonest position, if ever there was one. It's bulls**t and you KNOW it's bulls**t. No, it's not over globally. But we know what DOESN'T work. And that's leaving it up to individuals to police themselves.
New Zealand locked down and they've basically crushed it. Sweden elected not to do much, and they're not doing so great wrt their neighbors.
Even in the US, there are clear correlations. In states that have implemented masking requirements, infection rates are way down. In sta
Re:The virus is winning... (Score:5, Informative)
LOL, "the virus" is a common cold virus. It is not a threat to 99.5% of the population.
The common cold isn't known for doing long-term damage to the lungs.
"The UK National Health Service assumes that of Covid-19 patients who have required hospitalization, 45 percent will need ongoing medical care, 4 percent will require inpatient rehabilitation, and 1 percent will permanently require acute care. Other preliminary evidence, as well as historical research on other coronaviruses like severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), suggests that for some people, a full recovery might still be years off. For others, there may be no returning to normal."
https://www.vox.com/2020/5/8/2... [vox.com]
As of now, Texas governor Abbott is having to pause the state's reopening, and Houston hospitals were at 99% capacity on the 24th. Reality doesn't care about anybody's forgone partisan conclusions.
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You're quoting webmd? Gee why aren't all the hospitals getting their ventilator warnings from webmd?
Re:The virus is winning... (Score:5, Insightful)
Correlation is not causation.
Hospital overloading happens in major cities because major cities is where the good hospitals are. If you get COVID-19, you're not going to go to a rural hospital. That would be stupid.
Rural areas had a lower transmission rate because they aren't as well-connected (civilized) as urban areas. New York, Los Angeles, and Seattle were infected first, now Arizona, Texas, and Florida are the new hotspots.
Re:The virus is winning... (Score:4, Informative)
Correlation is not causation.
He is right though that there are a number of studies out already that show serious evidence of too much and too early intubation having caused avoidable damage.
Re:The virus is winning... (Score:5, Insightful)
The common cold isn't known for doing long-term damage to the lungs.
You know what is known for causing long term damage? Ventilators [webmd.com]
Before people just blindly assume that it is the disease that is doing the damage, a close look should be taken at the "cures". People are being put on ventilators because of low oxygen levels in their blood, but the evidence is starting to suggest that this is not only unnecessary, but leads to worse outcomes like the aforementioned lung damage.
Wow this presents such a dilemma. On the one hand there are doctors who have spent years in medical school and decades practicing medicine, backed up by evidence, studies, and consensus best-practice. On the other hand, a random Internet commentator with a webmd link backed with zero data or statistics. I just don't know who to trust anymore!
But also seriously, the lack of trust in doctors and/or authority figures is the entire reason Covid-19 won in America and has killed 100,000+ people. Compare that to South Korea, which started having cases months earlier and with 1/6th the population has had 1/400th the deaths.
P.S. No one has ever thought or suggested lockdown was a permanent solution. It was always a temporary measure until hospitals, PPE, and public consciousness could catch up. Unfortunately, it seems much of the US public doesn't have much consciousness left.
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We also didn't have a national level of government that stepped forward and said "take this seriously!" Instead we had an incompetent leadership that was happy to block travel to China for political reasons and who treated the virus as an excuse, but then failed to go further, failed to warn the public, kept spouting literal nonsense, mocked those journalists who wore masks, mocked the governors of states that took action, and so forth.
Re:The virus is winning... (Score:5, Insightful)
Before people just blindly assume that it is the disease that is doing the damage, a close look should be taken at the "cures". People are being put on ventilators because of low oxygen levels in their blood, but the evidence is starting to suggest that this is not only unnecessary, but leads to worse outcomes like the aforementioned lung damage.
Nobody puts people on ventilators just because they have low oxygen levels. First they put you on bed rest. Then they put you on extra oxygen. A quick search show you have people with severe COPD that have down towards 10% lung capacity but still breathe on their own. Ventilators are for people that can't even do that, there'll always be a few borderline cases but for most it's that or death by suffocation. It's a silly attempt at diversion trying to blame the ventilators rather than the "harmless" virus, when we wouldn't use a ventilator unless it's wiped out 90%+ of your ability to breathe.
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Re:The virus is winning... (Score:4, Insightful)
We have lots of morons who refuse to wear masks. Many claim a mask is unconstitutional, probably they're the same people most likely to be in favor of laws against public nudity. If the government can require you to wear pants in public, then it can require you to wear a mask. And many who won't wear a mask because they believe the virus doesn't exist, it's just like a common cold, or that it's a worldwide plot. Or some who claims it is uncomfortable (I remember my P.E. teacher didn't accept that excuse when I didn't want to wear a jock strap). Or morons who think that because they're young or don't have underlying conditions that they don't need to protect themselves, ignorant or uncaring that the purpose is to protect others.
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COVID-19 is a *vascular* disease, with respiratory implications.
https://elemental.medium.com/c... [medium.com]
Yeah, ventilators aren't great for people, but they're a last resort while we try to work this all out. But stop thinking of this disease as some sort of ordinary cold or flu. This disease does real damage to heart and lung tissue, as well as the kidneys and all sorts of other systems in the body.
Just. Wear. A. Mask.
If the dimwits in North America would stop whining and just wear a mask, we'd be done with the wo
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Houston hospitals were at 99% capacity on the 24th.
Houston hospitals don't seem to be too worried about it. They pretty much all say they can expand capacity [cnbc.com] to meet any surge in COVID cases. [click2houston.com]
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Reality doesn't care about anybody's forgone partisan conclusions.
The reality is that there is nothing we can do other than wear a mask and try to avoid preventable health issues (like obesity). The reality of the situation is that stopping corona will be as effective (if not less effective) than trying to stop the cold or the flu. In man VS nature, nature will win every time, watch.
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Umm really? It's hard to believe this is a tech site.
https://www.health.com/conditi... [health.com]
Really?? Are you reading this in any detail or just scalping the headlines? Nothing in your article suggests the lung damage being referenced. It is simply not on the level of what COVID-19 is doing to people.
https://abcnews4.com/news/coro... [abcnews4.com]
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Did you even try searching for the word "lung" in that article, before offering it as relevant?
Re:The virus is winning... (Score:5, Informative)
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Thanks for offering an example of the "strong streak of stupidity and anti-science sentiment" part.
Re:The virus is winning... (Score:4, Funny)
LOL, "the virus" is a common cold virus. It is not a threat to 99.5% of the population.
Look we were willing to take the GP's word on the stupidity streak, you didn't need to prove it to us.
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LOL, "the virus" is a common cold virus. It is not a threat to 99.5% of the population.
Why is it you chose to post that anonymously? Is it because you know it's stupid nonsense and don't actually believe it to be true?
Re:The virus is winning... (Score:5, Insightful)
America is a country born out of the Enlightenment. Pretending that "your ignorance is as good as my knowledge" is not the way to go.
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Narcissism and ego prevents you from learning to get along with people. But it's all their fault.
Re:The virus is winning... (Score:5, Informative)
I think the facts and reasoning should be presented in a way that appeals to the target audience. But cultivated ignorance does not deserve respect. People on the Right have made ignorance a part of their identity--so much so that Trump's people removed social distancing stickers from the seats of his Tulsa rally (presumably for fear of offending them with prudence).
Speaking of narcissism and ego, there are tragedies and statistics that could have been averted if he had gotten on the right side of this issue, rather than doubling-down on wishful thinking. Maybe look there, rather than blame the scientists for not managing to convince people who don't care about science.
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Re:The virus is winning... (Score:4, Insightful)
I am not an epidemiologist, but I am often smart enough to realize when I should borrow a clue
If someone does not want to listen to people who know better, the fault is with them. I don't know why you want to turn personal responsibility on its head.
The way of a fool is right in his own eyes; but he that is wise hearkeneth unto counsel.
Enjoy your Sunday
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Nah, they aren't inferior. But they will die, and not going to be my problem once Darwin demonstrates their failings.
Pretty sure everyone does. We don't all spend our lives being jerks to the people around us though.
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How do you explain to a person like her that wearing a mask will not send you in hell?
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Yeah telling someone to wear a thin paper mask is being a jerk.
Re:The virus is winning... (Score:5, Informative)
So the ineffective leadership of the USA resulted in a death rate of about 4.8%, what does successful leadership result in?
How about a death rate 100x lower? In AU and NZ the deaths per million is 4. In the US, currently 388 (and rising).
On a more realistic scenario (a more connected country), a death rate half that of the US is more likely - Canada @ 226, Switzerland @ 227, or perhaps Germany at a quarter @108 deaths per million.
Heck, the world is at ~65 deaths per million, how's that for a target - the most technologically advanced nation in the world, with the best healthcare and most available resources to throw at the problem, trying to beat the world average?
Welcome to the Half-time Report (Score:5, Funny)
Tune in next year for the full Monday morning quarterbacking!
The virus won because of hubris... (Score:5, Insightful)
Hubris and the false sense of superiority among many Americans and especially its leadership that engages in demagoguery has led to this.
Had its leadership applied some common sense, things would have been different.
Poor countries are doing much better than the so called greatest country in the world!! What more to expect?
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Hubris and the false sense of superiority among many Americans and especially its leadership that engages in demagoguery has led to this.
Had its leadership applied some common sense, things would have been different.
Poor countries are doing much better than the so called greatest country in the world!! What more to expect?
How South Korea Reined In The Outbreak Without Shutting Everything Down [npr.org]
S. Korea total deaths: 282. Deaths/million 6
USA! USA! Total deaths 128,243. Deaths per/million: 387.
Average Deaths per Million: 64.5
At least we are behind the French.
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You don't need tests to count the dead.
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Poor companies do fewer tests.
You don't need to test people to see death statics. Stop repeating Trump's bullshit. The USA's problem is not testing.
The Death Rate is dropping (Score:4, Insightful)
The Death Rate is what counts [nypost.com]
43% of deaths were in Nursing homes. [nytimes.com] This was not accidental. Cuomo had other options including the Navy Hospital ships.
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The death rate is only part of the picture. It is a lagging indicator, meaning it reflects virus spread from a couple of weeks ago. The new cases rate spiking up in the last week or two will mean that the death rate will also increase in a couple weeks, once the current new cases have a chance to progress.
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Oh good the death rate is dropping while we are seeing record infections. Give it a month and let's see those death numbers.
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The death rates are down because 2 weeks ago the infection rates were showing signs to finally subside. But they recovered since, so I think it's safe to assume that the death rates are going to recover as well in 2-3 weeks.
Re:The Death Rate is dropping (Score:5, Interesting)
Cuomo had other options including the Navy Hospital ships.
The hospital ships....that refused COVID cases.
Also, death rate is a lagging indicator. It's around 4-6 weeks behind current infections. Which means we'll have a surging death rate next month, thanks to all the people demanding we reopen while simultaneously demanding we don't expand testing and tracing.
At which point, you'll forget you ever talked about death rates, and will move on to a different talking point.
Buy War Bonds (Score:5, Insightful)
In World War II, Americans cared enough about their fellow humans that they put up with rationing, curfews, and all manner of limitations on their lifestyles to overcome a challenge.. In 2020, a significant portion of the population can't even be bothered to wear a little mask to keep others safe. They've turned not wearing a mask into some perverse political statement about "muh freedoms".
In six months, COVID-19 has killed more Americans than we had combat casualties in any year during WWII. We're losing because of selfishness, failed leadership, and pure idiocy.
And before you try to bring that weak "masks don't work" mess, here's a survey of the research:
http://files.fast.ai/papers/ma... [files.fast.ai]
Re:Buy War Bonds (Score:5, Insightful)
It has nothing to do with "breathing the same air", you dumb sonofabitch. When you wear a mask around others, you are still "breathing the same air". What you're NOT doing is breathing in the tiny exhaled particles or water droplets that carry the COVID-19 virus. This is how masks work, not by somehow allowing you to breathe different air as those around you. Where in hell did you get that idea, anyway?
Maybe "dumb sonofabitch" is too mild of an epithet for you.
But anyway, I don't want to see you get sick, so maybe have a look at something from the Mayo Clinic, which talks about how masks work and why you should wear one.
https://www.mayoclinic.org/dis... [mayoclinic.org]
Re:Buy War Bonds (Score:5, Insightful)
You are an exemplar of the reason why cases are rising in the USA.
The mask doesn't protect you much at all. The mask stops you spreading the virus to other people.
Now stop being a psychopathic moron and start wearing a fucking mask.
Let it win (Score:2)
You know, I thought when this started, that this would be the wake up call. That this would maybe, just maybe, get people to think, realize and act like normal, rational people again.
Heh. As if.
You don't even have to go to Reddit, Facebook or any other sources where you'd expect people who can probably only write legibly if they have a speech-to-text plugin that can understand their drunken drawl, because even here on /. what you get are people who claim it's some liberal or conservative plot to rig the ele
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So I say let the virus win. And judging from what we get to read here, it is on a good way to do so. Let it win. With a hint of luck, anything that comes after us will be more deserving to live.
How Darwinist of you. I think we let the chips fall where they fall and the species will be better off because of it.
send the Marines (Score:4, Insightful)
Everyone is going on about how that's Trump's fault. He certainly had a big share, but there's more behind that, as entire institutions don't fail this spectacularily because of one idiot at the helm.
The problem is that the US society, as seen from the outside at least, has become militaristic to a degree not otherwise seen in states that aren't fascist states or dictatorships. The police is armed with military equipment, the military is deeply in bed with both the media (Hollywood especially) and the industry (the whole military-industrial-complex) and the general attitude to problems is to send troops, and if that doesn't work, send more troops.
And a virus is something you can't defeat on a battlefield, you can't bomb it, and it doesn't give a fuck that you have nukes.
It's a failure to see the world in all its complexity, to not reduce everything to "with us or against us" and other concepts taken straight out of a military playbook, and an over reliance on military and economic power.
Also, arrogance at all levels.
Did they overlay the map with sites of protests? (Score:3)
I'm sure the virus wouldn't be so insensitive as to exploit such a noble cause as protesting police brutality and exploit it to its own advantage.
Re:Trust in institutions (Score:5, Insightful)
Whataboutism. WHO can only pass on information from governments of members, it’s right there in their charter. The US had the same chance everyone else has. Currently 4.2% of world population and 25% of deaths. The usual RWNJ suspects will be here soon, desperately fudging the numbers. Lynwood will tell bald faced lies. Waydeumberthanfuck will dribble some delusions, you know the drill.
Just another day on Slashdot.
Im going thru tons of popcorn. I appreciate the sacrifice to improving the worlds IQ in the US currently, Darwin in action.
we learn more as time goes by (Score:5, Informative)
The US made the mistake of believing China and the WHO when they reassured the world that there were no documented cases of person-to-person transmission of the virus and that China had it under control.
That was January 12, about a week after it had been identified that COVID19 was, in fact, a novel virus. It didn't really start infecting a large number of people in the U.S. until mid March, by which time the WHO had updated their warnings and had been saying that it was highly contagious for over two months. The U.S. had plenty of advanced notice that yes, it did spread person-to-person.
Take away lesson one is that when there is a new disease, it sometimes takes a while-- more than a week!-- to understand transmission.
Lesson two is that you should pay attention to updated information. The thing about science (and even medicine) is that we learn more as time goes by.
Re: we learn more as time goes by (Score:2)
Re:we learn more as time goes by (Score:5, Informative)
There's a reason it didn't start infecting people until March - because the WHO told us not to worry about it.
You don't seem to have read the post you are responding to.
The WHO passed along the information from China that the virus hasn't shown evidence person to person spreading on January 12, about one week after COVID19 was actually identified as a new virus. And they clearly labelled this "preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities showed no clear evidence of person to person transmission". So, take-away lesson three is: when a statement says "preliminary investigation shows," always look to see whether the preliminary information is confirmed by later information.
Scientists who told us to stay indoors or face extinction
Good god, that's bad advice. What scientists actually told us was if we want to flatten the curve to avoid hospitals being overwhelmed, we need to practice social isolation. That does not in any way mean "stay indoors". It means "when you're outdoors, stay six feet away from other people."
decided that gathering in large numbers to protest is OK (an open letter when Floyd protests started was signed by 1200 health professionals, saying "do not comdemn thse gatherings as risky for Covid-19 transmission". Go figure)
You seem to have missed the point of that open letter, which was that rather than condemn the protests, which were happening anyway, the letter urged both protestors and police to follow "best practices" to avoid transmission.
Immediately before the part you quoted was this text:
Staying at home, social distancing, and public masking are effective at minimizing the spread of COVID-19. To the extent possible, we support the application of these public health best practices during demonstrations.
And the list of best practices was: Support the health of protesters by encouraging the following:
-Use of face coverings.
-Distance of at least 6 feet between protesters, where possible.
-Demonstrating consistently alongside close contacts and moving together as a group, rather than extensively intermingling with multiple groups.
-Staying at home when sick, and using other platforms to oppose racism for high-risk individuals, and those unable or uncomfortable to attend in person.
So yes, we do learn more, we learn that the public bodies who are tasked with doing an objectively correct job are more interested in pushing political BS at us all instead.
Or, if you actually look at the letter, individual health professionals urged that, given that protests were occurring, people should maintain healthy practices in those protests.
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To add to this, by and large the protestors have followed those guidelines as well, a large majority of them are masked and while these numbers are always lagging and incomplete it's been just about 30 days since protest began and the cities with the largest protests have not seen the spikes we have seen in other states in the last 30 days. If anything it seems you can reasonably gather outdoors in groups if everyone masks up
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Minnesota didn't probably because a lot of testing sites were destroyed in the protests. But Houston had large protests. Miami and Jacksonville had large protests Texas and Florida had spikes. New York also had large protests and no spike. But New York was hit the hardest earliest on. In fact, almost every state that got hit hard early on ha
Re:Trust in institutions (Score:5, Interesting)
The US made the mistake of believing China and the WHO when they reassured the world that there were no documented cases of person-to-person transmission of the virus and that China had it under control.
More likely these also had something to do with it:
1. The virus would put the brakes on the economic growth the US has been seeing for the past 10 years or so.
2. It would most likely be another "flash in the pan" like SARS and MERS, and burn out quickly.
3. Overreacting to #2, combined with #1 would be politically damaging to the POTUS.
It's no wonder he wanted it to go away quickly. The problem was, Trump let wishful thinking override any other possibility, like this thing was here to stay for the long run, and will extend beyond election day.
And this sudden surge isn't just all on him. There's plenty of blame to go around.
Back in March/April I heard that the staged reopening in states (CA at least) would be based upon health data, not economic concerns - yet they did not follow their own advice. No, the moment I heard the florist shops in CA were going to reopen in time for Mother's day, I knew no one was taking this seriously. Last week it was tattoo and massage parlors. The rapid reopen push was likely to get people to accept that the schools can reopen in the fall so people could go back to work. Rush, rush, rush to reopen. There's nothing showing an improvement in CA's data. Yes we slowed down and lowered the curve, but we never experienced a decrease or leveling off of the daily infection rates since this all began.
Then we can look at the population itself. Isolation fatigue, younger people thinking they are immune and that it's an "old people's disease", anti-lockdown/mask protests and BLM protests that ignore social distancing and generate huge crowds. Nutjobs that think because they have a right not to wear a mask not thinking they "should" wear one out of consideration of others. No, it has to be a political statement.
So let's look back to March, when the shutdowns first started to occur, and NY was facing a healthcare crisis:
1. CA did a lockdown to slow (not stop) the spread of the virus, causing the peak to extend out to the June-July timeframe.
2. We were warned of rolling lockdowns over the next 18 months, as lockdowns were used to slow transmission rates, then relaxing of the rules would cause spikes leading to more lockdowns. I recall a 2 month lockdown followed by a 1 month of relaxed rules leading to another spike. This pattern repeating over 18 months or more until a vaccine is developed.
3. Moving the goalposts - lockdown is for 2 weeks, till the end of the month, till the Fed's say it is OK. Can't tell the harsh truth, as people do not want to hear the bad news all at once.
No one seems to recall this?
We as a country are screwed. Give it a few more months when the rest of the world is chugging along best it can in the situation, while the U.S. is quarantined by the international community.
Re:Lockdowns (Score:4, Interesting)
ED: That should read May, not March.
One thing I find interesting to watch is that we're goping to get a good test of mobility's impact on disease spread in Texas. Texas 2036 [shinyapps.io] is a great site that has a lot of mobility data, and over the past week mobility trends appear to have reversed. If this is the dominating factor in determining spread rates, hospitalization rate trends should start reversing a week or so from now and be in full reverse roughly two weeks from now.
(Of course, it's not an isolated factor; you still have steadily increasing test rates and growing herd immunity to contend with)
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Wow, a model from "Rt.live", that's definitely the be-all end-all part of this conversation.
No. We have a clear point at which the hospitalization spike starts. You can backtrack from there by average times from the CDC from infection to hospitalization. And you get a date in mid to late May. E.g., around Memorial Day.
Are you having a conversation with someone else? I just pointed out how increased testing rates is a factor that can help control the dis
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As a heuristic when I look at these curves, if new case growth is linear or a random jump, then my simple assumption is that it's due to more testing. If new case growth is curved (like exponential growth) then it's likely due to the infection spreading.
Some state websites show the number tests performed, so you can check that.
"/etc/rc.d/rc.sysinit is a gimp plugin and must be run by the gimp in order to be used."
LOL
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You then link to a site about the growth in hospitalizations in Texas. As if I literally didn't just write:
"The main places where hospitalizations are spiking are places which did not have a significant outbreak previously (such as Texas and Arizona, as can be seen by the deaths per 1M figures)"
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Find me a single epidemiologist stating that they do not believe that increasing the amount of testing increases the number of cases.
I'll be waiting.
You might want to finish your sentence. I'll guess that you were saying that "sick people get tested more"? Sick people don't magically make more testing capacity appear.
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(In fact, this goes all the way back to January where they blocked Trump's attempts to close the US border as "racist" but only really exploded in all-out political war in March, where they again continued to block Trump's attempts to keep the virus out as "racist.")
Nope. They didn't block anything. Trump actually shut down non-returnee traffic from China. And if you mean the southern border, Mexico actually got coronavirus from the U.S., not the other way around.
Fast forward to a month ago, and you've got a full politicized response. The left won't let the right take reasonable steps, and then holds giant "corona-parties" in large cities across the US to "protest police brutality" that looks more like riots and looting to anyone watching. Now, a month later, cases are spiking. And don't try and pretend it isn't due to these anti-police riots.
There's no correlation between the extent of protests and the spikes; cities with minimal protests had huge spikes, and the cities with the largest protests saw no real increase. But don't let facts spoil a good rant....
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No, I really don't. For one thing, many of those cities had already seen their big spikes, and for another, nearly all the protesters were wearing masks and keeping a distance away from one another, and they were outdoors.
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Wrong, it's the ones being violent and lawless who are "letting it rage on." Using a tragedy as excuse to destroy, steal, rape, and demanding hand-outs, instead of taking responsibility for their own lives and their spawn.
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Freedom? At this point, it is primarily about wearing or not wearing masks. Since people think wearing masks means they lost their freedom, then I'm sorry to report they lost their freedom long ago. They've been acquiescing their entire lives by wearing pants in public (not that I want them to not wear pants...god knows nobody wants that, but still my point stands).
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There are many countries that are freer that the US: for example their police don't murder black people routinely on the streets and they don't suppress the vote.
In these countries they applied common sense measures that were widely accepted by the population and that is why they are better off and "free" from the virus to a much greater extent that the US that is sadled and impaired by it.
Your death wish for 200 thousand of your compatriots is just sick. Societies are based on collaboration and cooperation
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I think "did" is the operative word here. There is plenty of time left yet.
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Time isn't over yet. It hit NY first. Your neck of the woods will be begging for help from NY in a few weeks.
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And in response, we developed vehicles with a giant laundry list of safety measures, and required those to be installed on all new cars, and ticketed drivers who didn't use them properly. Which massively reduced traffic accident deaths.
If you remember, folks like you decried how terrible this was.
There is no reason the US should not be following the infection trendline of, say, the EU. But we're not. Infections are skyrocketing, Houston's ICUs are now full, and a lot more people are going do die over the
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Year after year. And there is no TV talking, no articles or discussions about these hapless people.
This is nonsense, not only do traffic deaths show up on tv and in the news all the time (and on discussion sites with comments like yours), we are doing a lot about it.
You know why you have to wear seatbelts? You know why we have airbags in cars now? Do you understand that we have enacted serious drunk driving laws to get intoxicated drivers off the road? Look at all the tremendous effort we have put into reducing traffic deaths, and you will see why your comment is nonsense.
And the effort is efficaciou
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What a sole-less shit you are to say 128000 unnecessary deaths isn't a win for a virus. Go take a look at yourself.
Europe and America [Re:The virus didnt win] (Score:4, Informative)
It is useful to compare deaths per capita, thanks, but your summary statement
If the US lost, europe lost 3 times as hard.
is inaccurate:
U.S. as a whole: 38.1 deaths per hundred thousand
Europe as a whole: 21.2 deaths per hundred thousand.
The reason this looks so different from the figures you quote is that you left out western Europe's most populous country:
Germany: 10.8 deaths per hundred thousand.
The take-home lesson is: figure out what Germany did and do it.
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Political common sense: Never issue an order if you know it won't be obeyed. It just means you either have to resort to mass arrests, which makes everyone hate you, or end up looking weak and powerless. Either way, not good for your reelection chances.
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Ask anyone where America is, they'll tell you what you don't want to hear. Ask many if America *should* mean that, they'll probably agree with your point.
Sometimes words don't mean what they should, have fun arguing with common usages, I hope you find it fulfilling.
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You're all over the shop.
Your anecdote at the bottom is worthless. Honestly. Don't include these things if you want to be taken seriously.
Your ratio stats - I'm just going to take it at face value. Sure, it's not a death sentence for an individual. Nobody has ever said it was. In fact the ratio is the same globally, in terms of deaths, we know this - it's well-measured. But it's still far higher than any "flu" (please, stop the comparison... it makes you sound like you're buying into Trump's line of d