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Earth United States Science

Desert Quakes May Have Boosted Chances of 'Big One' Striking California (sciencemag.org) 61

Posted by BeauHD from the ticking-time-bomb dept.
sciencehabit shares a report from Science Magazine: A pair of earthquakes that struck the remote California desert 1 year ago have raised the risk of 'the big one' hitting Southern California, according to a new study. The research finds that the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, quakes shifted underground stresses, making the San Andreas fault -- the state's longest and most dangerous fault -- three times more likely to rupture. U.S. Geological Survey estimates for the annual probability of an earthquake on this part of the San Andreas are about one-third of a percent -- equivalent to expecting a magnitude 7.8 every 300 years, on average. The new modeling triples that hazard to 1% per year -- or a big one every century. And if the Garlock actually does rupture, then the hazard really rises on the San Andreas, by a factor of 150: The probability of a big one rises to 50% in the following year. In principle, a Garlock earthquake could lead to rupture on the San Andreas in a matter of hours or days, much as the two Ridgecrest events came within a day or two. USGS regional scenarios anticipate 1,800 deaths and 50,000 injuries in the event of a major San Andreas earthquake. More than 3 million homes could be damaged, at a reconstruction cost of $289 billion. The study has been published in the Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America.
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Desert Quakes May Have Boosted Chances of 'Big One' Striking California More

Desert Quakes May Have Boosted Chances of 'Big One' Striking California

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  • as IF it's gonna happen, but it's really WHEN.

  • Add that to the list... (Score:1)

    by Anonymous Coward

    ...of reasons not to move to California.

  • Been hearing this my entire life (Score:4, Interesting)

    by Way Smarter Than You ( 6157664 ) on Tuesday July 14, 2020 @08:03AM (#60296644)

    Yes, there will eventually be another huge quake.

    Every time there's a few tremors they trot out the same copy paste articles about "this could be a sign!"

    And when it finally does happen whoever re-printed the most recent copy paste will claim to be a genius and sell a book and go on the talk show circuit but no one will ask or mention the 5000 previous times it could have been it and wasn't.

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by rtb61 ( 674572 )

      They could forecast it, if they made the effort. Drill holes deep down and record the nature of each layer in the fault zone. Connect up special sensors to measure sound transmission through the solid material of each layer and the higher the frequency relative to sound origin, the greater the tension the rock layer is under. Start calculating likely rock face failure for the rock types for the various layers, and forecast the build up of forces as those forces distribute out through fault zones, load shift

      • You mean drill holes deep down, letting in water, which lubricates the fault and makes an earthquake more likely. Good show, armchair coach!

    • Exactly this. 30 years of hearing it for me and my parents have also been hearing it since they were children. Its more of a boogie man here in California now. It absolutely WILL happen, eventually, someday. But right around the corner? I won't hold my breath (although I'll keep my earthquake supplies tip top).

    • Re:Been hearing this my entire life (Score:4, Insightful)

      by Thelasko ( 1196535 ) on Tuesday July 14, 2020 @12:14PM (#60297218) Journal

      Yes, there will eventually be another huge quake.

      That's the thing... eventually. Eventually, people will become complacent and be uprepared when it happens. Just like when Hurricane Katrina [archive.org] hit New Orleans, or the current COVID pandemic. These things were predicted, but we grew complacent. Being prepared is expensive, and we decide to use the money for instant gratification.

      I know we've heard about "The Big One" for decades, but it's important to keep it in everyone's mind.

    • Reminds me of the town in California which had a moderate-sized earthquake every 5 years in recorded history, almost like clockwork. Scientists theorized that the fault line was super-slippery there, so was slipping in a consistent manner at regular intervals. And its regularity meant it would provide a good base case for predicting when earthquakes happen. Before the next quake, they spent years rigging up the town with seismometers, laser rangefinders. and other equipment. And waited, and waited, and t
  • I was concerned when because I had the “Murderous Insects in California” square next to “Giant California Earthquake” and two disasters couldn’t possibly happen in California this year.

  • You'll have before and after photos for Instagram.

    Before the Big One...its your last chance to see what its like either side of the San Andreas. Checkout Wildrose Peak, Death Valley, CA its charcoal kilns and wonder what must've been to support 7 of them burning full time and what created the peak in the middle of the Mojave. Visit the Great Basin bristlecone, oldest pine trees growing high in the White Mountains of Inyo County in eastern California. Photo-op the 20 Mule Team Road sign of borax fame. Tu

    • You'll have before and after photos for Instagram.

      I dunno...I don't think you'd want to be caught out there when it does happen.

      It would not be a pretty sight, and you'd have a hell of a time getting out of there.

  • Thereâ(TM)s something that these articles never answer about the San Andres. And Iâ(TM)ve never found a satisfactory answer myself.

    These articles always talk about the threat of the San Andres wrecking the hell out of San Francisco or Los Angeles. But the fault runs 2/3rds the length of California. Then it moves offshore and keeps going north. So, when âoethe big oneâ hits, why isnâ(TM)t it just as likely... more likely even... that itâ(TM)ll hit in a rural area out where it wi

    • Re: (Score:3)

      by cusco ( 717999 )

      Almost certainly the epicenter of a major event will most likely be in a rural area, but effects won't be confined there. An 8.0 earthquake 50 miles from San Francisco will still be a 7.8 or more by the time the wave propagates that far. No one cares much if a barn in rural nowhere is directly above the epicenter and turns to rubble, but if every window of the Transamerica Pyramid in San Francisco is shattered it's a big deal.

  • Comment removed based on user account deletion

    • Re: (Score:3)

      by cusco ( 717999 )

      Plus we have Mount Rainier with its glaciers. The last time Rainier woke up 60 mph mud lahars traveled all the way to Puget Sound and Lake Washington (which is why Renton is so flat). The wave from the lahar hitting Lake Washington traveled (IIRC) several miles inland at the north end of the lake. One of the highest tsunami high-water marks in the world is from a cliff collapse (possibly triggered by a tremor) into the Puget Sound that resulted in a wave traveling several hundred feet up the walls of a f

    • This. California seems to get all the attention because earthquakes are more common there. But the maximum potential quake from the San Andreas is about an 8.0. Cascadia (Oregon, Washington, British Columbia) has the potential of creating a 9.0+ quake. Likewise, the highest risk areas in the country for an earthquake (as opposed to most likely to experience an earthquake) are probably New Madrid (St. Louis/Memphis area) [wikipedia.org] with a potential 7.0-8.0, and New York/New Jersey [wikipedia.org] with a potential magnitude 6.0+.

  • Remember when 1,800 deaths sounded like a lot? It's just noise now, thanks to the US government's response to the pandemic.

    • Remember when 1,800 deaths sounded like a lot?

      No.

      We have that many from old age DAILY. Well, actually we have about 6x that many deaths daily.

      In the USA, of course. Worldwide, 1800 deaths is about ten minutes worth....

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