Do Animals Really Anticipate Earthquakes? Sensors Hint They Do (scientificamerican.com) 41
An anonymous reader quotes Scientific American:
For centuries, people have described unusual animal behavior just ahead of seismic events: dogs barking incessantly, cows halting their milk, toads leaping from ponds... Now researchers at the Max Planck Institute of Animal Behavior and the University of Konstanz, both in Germany, along with a multinational team of colleagues, say they have managed to precisely measure increased activity in a group of farm animals prior to seismic activity...
The researchers used highly sensitive instruments that record accelerated movements — up to 48 each second — in any direction. During separate periods totaling about four months in 2016 and 2017, they attached these biologgers and GPS sensors to six cows, five sheep and two dogs living on a farm in an earthquake-prone area of northern Italy. A total of more than 18,000 tremors occurred during the study periods, with more seismic activity during the first one — when a magnitude 6.6 quake and its aftershocks struck the region. The team's work was published in July in Ethology...
Analyzing the increased movements as a whole, the researchers claim, showed a clear signal of anticipatory behavior hours ahead of tremors. "It's sort of a system of mutual influence," Wikelski says. "Initially, the cows kind of freeze in place — until the dogs go crazy. And then the cows actually go even crazier. And then that amplifies the sheep's behavior, and so on...." This "swarm intelligence" can happen within or across species, Wikelski says. For example, "we did a study on Galápagos marine iguanas, and we know that they are actually listening in to mockingbirds' warnings about the Galápagos hawks," he adds. "These kinds of systems exist all over the place. We're just not really tuned in to them yet."
The researchers say the farm animals appeared to anticipate tremors anywhere from one to 20 hours ahead, reacting earlier when they were closer to the origin and later when they were farther away. This finding, the authors contend, is consistent with a hypothesis that animals somehow sense a signal that diffuses outward.
The researchers used highly sensitive instruments that record accelerated movements — up to 48 each second — in any direction. During separate periods totaling about four months in 2016 and 2017, they attached these biologgers and GPS sensors to six cows, five sheep and two dogs living on a farm in an earthquake-prone area of northern Italy. A total of more than 18,000 tremors occurred during the study periods, with more seismic activity during the first one — when a magnitude 6.6 quake and its aftershocks struck the region. The team's work was published in July in Ethology...
Analyzing the increased movements as a whole, the researchers claim, showed a clear signal of anticipatory behavior hours ahead of tremors. "It's sort of a system of mutual influence," Wikelski says. "Initially, the cows kind of freeze in place — until the dogs go crazy. And then the cows actually go even crazier. And then that amplifies the sheep's behavior, and so on...." This "swarm intelligence" can happen within or across species, Wikelski says. For example, "we did a study on Galápagos marine iguanas, and we know that they are actually listening in to mockingbirds' warnings about the Galápagos hawks," he adds. "These kinds of systems exist all over the place. We're just not really tuned in to them yet."
The researchers say the farm animals appeared to anticipate tremors anywhere from one to 20 hours ahead, reacting earlier when they were closer to the origin and later when they were farther away. This finding, the authors contend, is consistent with a hypothesis that animals somehow sense a signal that diffuses outward.
Any pet owner can tell you that as well (Score:2)
I had a cat who one day was very nervous. She was carting her kittens around the house from one place to another. Then we had an earthquake, about a 6.5 IIRC. After the quake she settled won and nursed her kittens.
Her name was Epicenter. Her kids were Temblor, Iridium, and Hurricane. I called up Channel 4 and said, "Hey, I just had a cat predict the earthquake." They blew me off and said they were busty reporting on the quake. So they interviewed a guy coming out of 7/11 with a six pack on what he thought.
Re:Any pet owner can tell you that as well (Score:5, Funny)
One day my dog started barking for no reason.
Then there was no earthquake.
So my anecdote cancels yours.
Re:Any pet owner can tell you that as well (Score:5, Funny)
"One day my dog started barking for no reason.
Then there was no earthquake.
So my anecdote cancels yours."
The earthquake was very far away.
Your dog is too good.
Re: (Score:2)
Heisenberg's cat both predicted an earthquake and did not predict an earthquake, but we won't know which it was just yet.
Schroedenger's Koan (Score:2)
If a cat dies in a box and there's no one around to see it, is it dead?
Re: (Score:2)
Maybe dogs are constantly trying to warn us about earthquakes all around the world? :-P
Re: (Score:2)
It doesn't. You had a dog. Dogs always bark for no reason. Your dog is stupid. Ask my cat.
Re: (Score:2)
There's usually a reason, but it could range from a moose to that they are being bored.
Re: (Score:2)
Don't be mean, explain the numbers. A city contains a million people, with say half a million dogs or cats, some of them are bound to be playing up in the hours before for all sorts of reason and not the earth quake. How about touts, people they go to a racetrack, and with ten horses in a race, they tell ten people each, that one of those horses will win and they can make the bet and they owe you half. Why pay you say, well, in the race after that they will also tell you the winner. So ten people bet and on
Re: (Score:2)
It doesn't exactly cancel. If half of the barking of dogs in an area happens randomly and the other half happens at a predefined time then one does not cancel the other. A pattern can be extracted.
In this case there are two claims
- animals detect earthquakes before instruments can.
- animals show cross species group behavior and group alarm behavior which at times may be quite clever.
The second claim is fairly ordinary but there may be some interesting observations in it. The first is exceptional and makes m
Re: (Score:2)
Many earthquakes have been observed to generate subsonic vibrations, well below human hearing but likely within the hearing of many animals. Also in some areas they release extra gasses when the rocks are excessively stressed, which again are not perceptible to humans but well within the detection abilities of many animals (dogs in particular.) Dog probably has no idea what an earthquake is, but could be complaining, "Hey, there's a new smell and some sound I've never heard before and I don't like it!"
Re: (Score:2)
That is all possible. The dog notices the house falling down while the dog bowl smells funny and makes a low rumbling sound. What makes the claims special is the word 'anticipate' . Means before it happens.
Re: (Score:3)
Ah, I wasn't clear. The phenomena that I mentioned happens before the break, sometimes minutes sometimes hours before. There isn't a unified set of phenomena though, so they haven't been able to build a prediction system around them. Animals on the other hand have a suite of sensors which don't necessarily allow them to predict earthquakes, but which let them try to communicate, "Hey, there are a bunch of different things that are out of normal parameters and it makes me uneasy."
Re: (Score:2)
Now I am not sure whether my reply disappeared or was never sent.
I can see that it is at least possible that animals react to signs of an impending earthquake if the signs are there - and I doubt they are present in general, but even if there are actual measurable signs announcing an earthquake I doubt if animals will be atuned to them. You could say 'yes but if one species catches on it can transfer the panic to the others'. Yes that could be in theory. But for an earthquake there is not even much use to i
Re: Any pet owner can tell you that as well (Score:3)
Don't know about cats, but it a well known fact in the scientific community that mice lie and monkeys exaggerate.
Re:Any pet owner can tell you that as well (Score:5, Funny)
In the this case, I would suspect we are dealing with causation rather than prediction. The cat probably engineered the earthquake to assert domination or teach you a lesson.
Even humans (Score:3)
can get a few seconds warning from the P wave.
Enough time to go stand in a doorway.
Re: (Score:1)
You put your toilet in the doorway?
Re: (Score:3)
You put your toilet in the doorway?
Well technically it is my neighbors toilet and it's only becomes a toilet when I'm drunk and have lost my keys.
Re: (Score:3)
Hours, wow (Score:1)
That's pretty extraordinary if true. That means they sense something that we've yet to measure. Finding the "magic frequency" could be a boom to both theoretical research and the practicality of dealing with quake damage.
Catfish? (Score:4, Interesting)
In Japan, people believe that catfish anticipate earthquakes. It was never explained to me how this was first observed, but it is common lore here.
Here in New Zealand we get a lot (Score:2)
We get a lot of earth quakes here in New Zealand and about 3-5 seconds before an earthquake hits you can hear a deep rumbling sound. So the sound wave hits before the shaking starts. Its not enough time to GTFOOT. And as a bit of anecdotal evidence I hear it at the same time as the cat, but the cat only starts freaking out when it starts shaking.
Re: (Score:2)
But yes, they usually are preceded by some sort of noise.
MRI (Score:1)
Re: (Score:3)
Maybe it's easier to realize that there's something going by actually do a composite measurement not only of the seismic waves but also changes in the magnetic field, electric interference and also audio through the air.
I would even consider if there are gases emitted from the ground too.
Re: (Score:2)
What frequencies can these animals hear at? If some of them can't hear beyond what humans can hear then sound could be ruled out.
I'd bet on magnetic field changes.
Re: (Score:2)
Never rule out anything until properly tested. Sometimes the sound effects are indirect, and for low frequency sounds it could actually be detected through the limbs and not by the hearing.
Re: (Score:2)
Likely a combination of things. "Hey, there's this smell I can't identify, and a weird noise, and north isn't where it should be!" Of course all we hear is "Bark! Bark! Bark!"
Did the cows fart more or less frequently? (Score:2)
Oh my god, animals can sense massive vibrations?! (Score:2)
Wow, you mean to say that an animal can sense a massive vibration that quite literally rips the earth apart?
The odd thing is that humans do not. Of course, shoes, concrete, and only 2 feet on the ground might have something to do with that.
I would be more interested in a study to find out if near naked humans, lying on dirt can sense the earthquake as well as the animal can.
Re:Oh my god, animals can sense massive vibrations (Score:5, Insightful)
Wow, you mean to say that an animal can sense a massive vibration that quite literally rips the earth apart?
No, it means that animals (allegedly) can predict that massive vibration will occur, well before it happens, which is a completely different and much more interesting thing.
Possibly related... (Score:5, Insightful)
Could be another facet of this https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/p... [nih.gov]
Re: (Score:2)
Title is 'Nature of Pre-Earthquake Phenomena and their Effects on Living Organisms', and it look interesting. I'll have to skim through it later.
How could this possibly get published? (Score:3)
18,000 tremors over 4 months is 6 1/4 times per hour.
They say they can detect anomalous behavior anywhere from 1-20 hours in advance. That's a hell of a window. With an average of 6 1/2 events occurring during their shortest window, and an average of 125 tremors during their longest window, how can they possibly tease a signal out of that noise? Even if they were actually responding to the tremors, how do they know that they are responding to the tremor 4 hours later and not the tremor 4 hours and 12 minutes later, or the tremor 3 hours and 37 minutes later, or the tremor 18 hours and six minutes later....... it just sounds like they came up with a fancy method for going anomaly hunting.
Summed Oversampling (Score:2)
Not GPS (Score:1)
Post hoc analysis (Score:1)
As the underlying article of the first link points out, researchers are typically quite hesitant to investigate this type of phenomena because "The topic has become unfashionable among biologists as post hoc evidence is largely viewed as selective recognition". That paper makes no attempt to link animals to earthquakes, but instead focuses on mechanisms for rock stress to allow complex magnetic interactions.
The main study is deeply problematic in it's use of statistics - for instance, they argue "Eight of
Re: (Score:2)