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Earth Science

Climate Disruption Is Now Locked In. The Next Moves Will Be Crucial. (nytimes.com) 288

America is now under siege by climate change in ways that scientists have warned about for years. But there is a second part to their admonition: Decades of growing crisis are already locked into the global ecosystem and cannot be reversed. From a report: This means the kinds of cascading disasters occurring today -- drought in the West fueling historic wildfires that send smoke all the way to the East Coast, or parades of tropical storms lining up across the Atlantic to march destructively toward North America -- are no longer features of some dystopian future. They are the here and now, worsening for the next generation and perhaps longer, depending on humanity's willingness to take action. "I've been labeled an alarmist," said Peter Kalmus, a climate scientist in Los Angeles, where he and millions of others have inhaled dangerously high levels of smoke for weeks. "And I think it's a lot harder for people to say that I'm being alarmist now." Last month, before the skies over San Francisco turned a surreal orange, Death Valley reached 130 degrees Fahrenheit, the highest temperature ever measured on the planet. Dozens of people have perished from the heat in Phoenix, which in July suffered its hottest month on record, only to surpass that milestone in August.

Conversations about climate change have broken into everyday life, to the top of the headlines and to center stage in the presidential campaign. The questions are profound and urgent. Can this be reversed? What can be done to minimize the looming dangers for the decades ahead? Will the destruction of recent weeks become a moment of reckoning, or just a blip in the news cycle? The Times spoke with two dozen climate experts, including scientists, economists, sociologists and policymakers, and their answers were by turns alarming, cynical and hopeful. "It's as if we've been smoking a pack of cigarettes a day for decades" and the world is now feeling the effects, said Katharine Hayhoe, a climate scientist at Texas Tech University. But, she said, "we're not dead yet." Their most sobering message was that the world still hasn't seen the worst of it. Gone is the climate of yesteryear, and there's no going back. The effects of climate change evident today are the results of choices that countries made decades ago to keep pumping heat-trapping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere at ever-increasing rates despite warnings from scientists about the price to be paid.

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Climate Disruption Is Now Locked In. The Next Moves Will Be Crucial.

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  • by NFN_NLN ( 633283 ) on Wednesday September 23, 2020 @11:17AM (#60535878)

    > America is now under siege by climate change in ways that scientists have warned about for years. But there is a second part to their admonition

    The time ti act is now folks. This is an EMERGENCY. We need to hand over all rights and freedoms to the government to make unilateral sweeping reform in our greater interest. The individual can not be trusted to act appropriately. Hig Zail.

  • by mark-t ( 151149 ) <markt AT nerdflat DOT com> on Wednesday September 23, 2020 @11:32AM (#60535942) Journal

    But what is physically possible and what is practically possible are always two different things.

    It is entirely possible, in the physical sense of the word, to stop and even eventually reverse global warming, but it's so unacceptably inconvenient to do so that it is probable impossible for all practical purposes.

    • by Ichijo ( 607641 )

      Or we could tax carbon and return the revenue equally to everyone. If the tax is $1.00 per gallon of gasoline, and if the average person uses 125 gallons every 3 months, then everyone would receive a $125 check every 3 months no matter how much gasoline they used.

      Now $125 may not seem like a lot of money for you or I, but for a poor person, it would be a very welcome supplement to their income.

      • So the poor will have the money to burn more gas, and the rich won't care and keep driving.

        I'll believe they are serious about limiting CO2 emissions when they ban commercial air travel. Two percent of global CO2 emissions and the planet's best virus dispersion system and a luxury unimagined until a hundred years ago.

        And they could do an arms control treaty to end combat aircraft too. Air power has been shown to be most useful at slaughtering civilians. Leave exceptions for reconnaissance aircraft and medev

  • This is fine.
  • Not enough (Score:5, Insightful)

    by hdyoung ( 5182939 ) on Wednesday September 23, 2020 @11:54AM (#60536054)
    It's not enough. We're not going to do anything about this until it gets TRULY IMPOSSIBLE to ignore. As in, MAJOR crop failures and entire breadbasket regions turned to desert, or entire coastal cities abandoned, or heat waves that straight-up overload the electrical grid of a large area and literally cook 10s of thousands of people to death because it's impossible for a human to surivive at 130F for more than about 60 minutes.

    Until then, business as usual. Too many companies have spent too much money buying too many ads and too many politicians. Too much disbelief in the science has been sowed. In the US, we have a entire political party that's nearly-homogeneously dedicated to anti-science. It will take decades to undo all of that social programming, and we can't even get started until after society decides to take things seriously.

    In the meantime, the scientists and engineers have a duty to come up with ways to effectively geo-engineer the climate. It will be needed. To the people who are against geo-engineering: too bad, screw you, that ship sailed 3 decades ago when we could have dealt with the problem, but as a species we consciously chose not to. When the rest of humanity pulls it's head out of it's ass and asks for help, the scientists and engineers need to be ready with solutions.

    It's not going to be pretty.
  • When they start demanding that nuclear power plants be built in order to power all of the electric cars that are needed to replace the ICE powered cars on the road today, I'll start believing the alarms.
    • When they start demanding that nuclear power plants be built in order to power all of the electric cars that are needed to replace the ICE powered cars on the road today, I'll start believing the alarms.

      Also when they stop policies that promote expanding population, especially in high-energy economies. (That includes both encouraging birthrate wherever and importing low-income, high-birthrate migrants to places where the, and their offspring, can afford to use more energy and grow bigger families.) It doe

    • Actually, many of us ARE demanding this. The thought of NY and CA killing 2 of their major reactors that are STILL IN GOOD SHAPE is just insane.
  • Ya? What do you want me to do about it? I didn't ask to be here and I resent anybody telling me what to do. I've made the biggest contribution a human could make to fight global climate change: I'M SINGLE. So shut up now and let me do what I want. I've earned it.
  • by chispito ( 1870390 ) on Wednesday September 23, 2020 @12:26PM (#60536206)
    Weren't wildfires larger and more frequent prior to current land management policies (the era of Smokey the Bear)? This gov't report cites 50 million acres burning nationally in 1930 and 1931. https://www.nifc.gov/PIO_bb/Po... [nifc.gov] (p 14)
  • by djp2204 ( 713741 ) on Wednesday September 23, 2020 @12:49PM (#60536314)
    Blacklist all industry in China, India, and the rest of the developing world. They are the ones with the most lax environmental controls and the ones less likely to take action. The 3rd world must remain 3rd world.
  • Whomever msmach is, they need to make up their minds. One post says time has run out and the next says there is time remaining. /. should stick to technology and leave reading tea leaves to others.

    Climate Disruption Is Now Locked In. The Next Moves Will Be Crucial.
    Posted by msmash on Wednesday September 23, 2020 @09:51AM from the closer-look dept.

    A New York Clock That Told Time Now Tells the Time Remaining
    Posted by msmash on Wednesday September 23, 2020 @09:10AM from the how-about-that dept

  • by mortonda ( 5175 ) on Wednesday September 23, 2020 @12:59PM (#60536378)

    While I won't contest that it's been a remarkable year, it doesn't help when facts in the premise are in question. for example:
    "Death Valley reached 130 degrees Fahrenheit, the highest temperature ever measured on the planet" ... except, this isn't quite accurate.

    https://www.history.com/news/t... [history.com]

    While there are some trying to invalidate that claim, it doesn't change the fact that it was pretty darn hot and pretty darn close to the same. I'm just saying, state your premise correctly, or all that follows is suspect.

  • then 40% of the population will not believe it.
    As his re-election campaign has lots of $$$$ from Oil, Gas etc he won't dare say anything to upset his backers.

    • then 40% of the population will not believe it.
      As his re-election campaign has lots of $$$$ from Oil, Gas etc he won't dare say anything to upset his backers.

      According to https://www.opensecrets.org/in... [opensecrets.org] oil & gas has given Trump $1.5 million.
      That isn't much in the scheme of things. Bloomberg is spending $100 million in Florida alone to help Biden.
      https://www.npr.org/2020/09/13... [npr.org]

      I'd rather be riding my '63 Triumph T120.

      Neat looking ride.

  • by cascadingstylesheet ( 140919 ) on Wednesday September 23, 2020 @01:29PM (#60536514) Journal
    It was never feasible to solve this through hectoring and enforced stone age living. We need technological solutions.
  • by schwit1 ( 797399 ) on Wednesday September 23, 2020 @01:39PM (#60536574)

    California’s wildfires are a serious matter, but the official record of the United States shows forest fires in the US today are far below the annual average in the 1930s and 1940s.

    https://fee.org/articles/fores... [fee.org]

  • this was called a tipping point. As long as we have to fight with those preventing us from addressing climate change the worse it will get. I think it is technically possible within a decade stop the increase in CO2 and within a decade more to start pulling it out of the air (not with ocean iron seeding, but with things like improving the soil to absorb and retain more carbon), shifting away from cars, living in more compact walkable cities with mass transit (though kind of difficult right now with a pandem

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